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Long Game 99: Scourges of the Saturated Seas


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The ship was in chaos. At night, the men hurried to their conversations, plotting, scheming, trying to find some order in the paranoia. They failed. Two deaths rocked the ship that night. Both were loyal crew men. Revir and Kelwin has both died in the night, but on separate ends of the ship. The survivors were growing paranoid, having failed to find any deadrunners. As the sun broke on the third day, it brought no relief. It was hot, and the ship was stuck, no fluidization to get them moving again.

TheRavenHasLanded has died. They were a member of the Loyal Crew.
Kasimir has died. He was a member of the Loyal Crew.

This Day will end in 48 hours on March 16th at 9 PM EST.

Also, @Hairybarron is in danger of dying to inactivity. If he fails to post this day, he will be removed from the game.

Spore Supply:

  Hide contents
  • 3 Zephyr Spores
  • 2 Sunlight Spores
  • 1 Roseite Spore

Player List:

  Hide contents
  1. |TJ| : Grant Loyal Crew
  2. Faerie Braids : Morrigan Loyal Crew
  3. Aeoryi Loyal Crew
  4. @Aeternum
  5. @RoyalBeeMage
  6. TheRavenHasLanded: Revir Loyal Crew
  7. @Amanuensis
  8. @JNV
  9. @The Bald Brandon
  10. Kasimir : Kelwin Loyal Crew
  11. @Hairybarron
  12. @DrakeMarshall : Rob Hertz
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huh. i might have submitted my Zephyer spore use just after time was up. i was hoping to redirect the crimson onto who i think to be an elim. i thought it was kas. i did not move the spore in time but now we know that it is not kas.

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3 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

huh. i might have submitted my Zephyer spore use just after time was up. i was hoping to redirect the crimson onto who i think to be an elim. i thought it was kas. i did not move the spore in time but now we know that it is not kas.

So you tried to redirect me to Kas but still have your Zephyr?

For now that is all o7

Edited by Amanuensis
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Just now, Amanuensis said:

So you tried to redirect me to Kas but still have your Zephyr?

For now that is all o7

yes. i tried to move you to kas but was to late. i still have my zephyr

Just now, JNV said:

Did anyone redirect or otherwise block me

if someone did it was not me

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19 minutes ago, JNV said:

Did anyone redirect or otherwise block me

Not I :( were you protecting Kas?

19 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

yes. i tried to move you to kas but was to late. i still have my zephyr

Hm. So hear me out about my B-Team Theory

  1. TBB
  2. Bee
  3. Barron

Would be perfect with Braids too. Oh well. Funny thought experiment regardless

For now that is all o7

Edited by Amanuensis
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1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Not I :( were you protecting Kas?

Hm. So hear me out about my B-Team Theory

  1. TBB
  2. Bee
  3. Barron

Would be perfect with Braids too. Oh well. Funny thought experiment tho

For now that is all o7

Would be even better with a four man team. 

TBB

T(J)

B(ee)

B(arron)

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Oh by the way Im going for Kass Roseite they left it to me in PMs if anyone else tries for it they can die with me yes I know thats not how it works but it sounds dramatic anyway if anyone used Zephyr or Verdant on me claim now or my going assumption is youre evil and Ill be actively looking to find and kill you 

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sigh.

Amanuensis is evil.

Evidence:

  1. Kas should not have died. As JNV has already admitted, they were supposed to protect Kas last night. Killing Kas should have been impossible without first addressing this. Could the elims hypothetically have gotten lucky and just randomly blocked JNV, which just happened to make their intended kill target vulnerable? Sure, that's hypothetically possible. Is it likely? Heck no! :P I don't think anyone has so many spare spore charges to burn that they would randomly interfere with JNV, who hasn't posted much, especially when there are alternatives like trying to interfere with the Crimson Spore shot tonight, and especially since it wasn't common knowledge that JNV started with a Roseite Spore. Anyways, JNV is just one of many players and it's just a lot of coincidence required for the elims to have hit the right target on accident. Therefore, it's much simpler to assert that the elims probably knew that JNV was protecting Kas. To the best of my knowledge, the only people who knew this and could've interfered with it were me, Aman, and JNV themselves. It wasn't me. Furthermore, I really don't think e!JNV kills Kas here: as best as I can tell JNV is literally always reluctant to kill Kas, and they especially had no reason to do it in this game where Kas was actively village reading and defending them. Add to the pile that JNV's reaction over Kas' death feels genuine. Add to the pile that the space faeries told Kas that JNV is village :P I really don't see how e!JNV works here. As far as I can tell, that leaves Aman being evil as the only plausible option, unless you want to vote for me.
  2. There should have been an elim kill on N1. Let's clear the air about something real quick: I didn't kill TJ. Aman didn't kill Raven. It's the other way around. I killed Raven. Aman killed TJ. On D2, Aman privately claimed to both me and Kas to have attacked TJ with a Crimson Spore he started with. And on N3, I attacked Raven with the Crimson Spore I obtained publicly from the stockpile. Why did we lie about this? Why did I claim Aman's kill? 1) So nobody would think to redirect me when I actually used my Crimson Spore and 2) because Aman wasn't claiming it publicly for some reason (Kas found it suspicious at the time tbhhh), and we kinda needed someone to claim it for the thread to make a lick of sense at that moment, so I just did it. Anyways, the lie is no longer useful to the village, hence why I've explained the truth. "Drake this is all very interesting and skillfully conveyed," you might reasonably say, "but why does it even matter? TJ and Raven are both dead," you cry, "who cares how it happened?" Well I'm glad you asked :P
    Let me explain why it's actually important: Aman could have lied about starting with a Crimson Spore. He could have killed TJ with the elim kill and only said he used a Crimson Spore that he happened to start with. This would be a bit strange, but it's honestly less strange than any of the other possibilities at this point, because at least it explains why there was apparently no elim kill: there was one, and Aman is just a liar. It's still extremely difficult to explain where the elim kill went if this isn't true. Want to theorize that the elim kill was somehow blocked? That looks pretty much impossible at this point, because nobody's claimed to have blocked it, and now that Aeternum weighed in on taking a Zephyr we know for sure that TJ can't have acted the night he died either. Want to theorize that the elims missed a kill? That's also looking very dubious, because Raven was village, and how many plausible "forgetful elim teams" are even left without Raven? We also have to rule out TBB from any proposed "forgetful elim team", I think. If you go back and reread the N1 thread, he literally posted a reminder to submit your actions less than an hour before the turn closed. I think it just plain doesn't work to assert that he made that post less than an hour before the turn ended and then forgot to have an elim kill. So who's even left? With each person we rule out, the theory looks less and less likely. Again, we are left with Aman being evil as increasingly the only plausible-seeming option.
    ...I'll also throw in that this isn't just my thoughts. Kas had a similar line of thinking, and identified <Drake, Aman> as the prime suspects for people who might deliberately use the elim kill on TJ, in the world where the elims didn't miss the kill accidentally (and as previously stated, it's looking more and more like that's the world we live in). And, well, it wasn't me :P If you think it was me, well, that's actually way harder to explain, because Aman still claimed to have shot TJ. If I'm evil, it requires that a somewhat unlikely coincidence happened where I happened to NK the same person Aman vig killed. Whereas if Aman is evil, no coincidence is necessary. Up to you I guess, but I think that's pretty convincing, personally :P
  3. Aman's votes and pushes have been bad. Sure, this is quite probably the point Aman will object most stringently to regardless of his alignment, but sorry bro I'm still gonna say it, because it does reflect on the verdict of your alignment 😔
    1. Aman's D1 and N1 look bad: Judging by his claim to have vig killed TJ N1, v!Aman strongly suspected TJ. However, even though TJ was the second-most-voted person during D1, Aman was content not to vote for them, and instead allow someone he professed he thought was village to get executed. While I can sympathize with feeling put out by how the D1 discussion was going (true for anyone of any alignment, I suppose), I really cannot sympathize with not just voting for TJ if you were literally suspicious enough of TJ to vig kill him the next night and meanwhile had v!Aeoryi credences. It doesn't make sense. Maybe Aman developed much more intense TJ suspicions during N1, but I've seen no evidence of that thus far... and any explanation given now would be a little too late. If Aman were village and sincere in suspecting TJ enough to vig kill him, I feel like there would have been no reason not to vote TJ.
    2. Aman's D2 looks bad: As the day went on I didn't really love the Faerie push and I was vocal about giving reasons why I thought Faerie was potentially readable as village. Sure, the Faerie push wasn't all dirty (Kas, at least, was definitely village), but I'd be a bit surprised if it was all clean. Villagers push other villagers all the time, yes, but elims still do it more frequently still. I don't think the Faerie execution was good, and Aman's reasons for voting Faerie whilst understandable had nothing to do with Faerie's alignment. Aman's own method of reading people is based on seeing evidence that they are putting in effort to solve the game, and there is fundamentally not much evidence of effort to solve here.
    3. Aman's N2 looks bad: It would seem that Aman's favored targets for the N2 Crimson Spore shot were TBB and Raven. We know how Raven turned out, which to be fair is mostly on me. But I also don't really think TBB would have been a hit [edit: reconsidering this particular point...]. Again, sometimes villagers get it wrong, but elims do it more, and a strong read of any player is based not only on one or two big pieces of evidence but also on the accumulation of small reasons to trust and distrust tipping the balance.
    4. Aman's D3 looks bad: Simply put, the village is in a pretty unfortunate spot right now :P If we get today's vote wrong, we are all super dead, unless Hairy turns out to be an elim, in which case we're only probably dead :P For that matter, if Hairy is village, then we only have the votes to tie against the elims and get a coin toss, and only then if the village stands completely united against the elims, so yeah not great. This is the time and place to bring some urgency to bear, in my opinion. And I think if Aman were village, he would be feeling that. I feel it, even if I'm still abiding by my self-imposed 3-post-per-turn limit. It looks to me like JNV does. But Aman just doesn't feel urgent today. He's suggested an elim team but I'm not sensing any strong commitment or much effort put towards figuring out if his proposed elim team is the correct one or not. I think this is one of the most universal tells for finding eliminators in the final stretch of any game. [Edit: It is also generally Not A Great Sign that while Aman has apparently little investment in solving in the thread, he has been lobbying me hard in PMs today trying to throw shade on a whole host of other players. The agenda I see there is FUD, not game-solving.]
  4. Aman could have blocked JNV. Aman grabbed a Verdant Spore N1. This places him in a PoE with everyone else who had the ability to block JNV. This is a rather large PoE, so it's not exactly conclusive in of itself, but it's worth noting. Unless you want to commit to the prospect of e!JNV (which I've already given reasons against), there has to be at least one elim with access to a Verdant or Zephyr spore. I'll note that if push comes to shove, I'm pretty sure I could mechanically prove that I physically could not have interfered with JNV's actions. It remains that Aman is the intersection between "players who knew JNV was protecting Kas" and "players who had the mechanical power to block JNV" and that the elims certainly interfered with JNV's action. Means, motive, and opportunity are all present.
  5. The starting spore distribution implicates Aman. Arguments based on distro should always be taken with a grain of salt, I think, but they still exist for a reason, and I think we have enough of a grasp of the larger picture of the distro to make conclusions. Supposing for a moment that everyone's telling the truth about what they started with, this is what I have:

    Roseite (2) - Aeoryi, JNV
    Crimson (1) - Amanuensis
    Midnight (1) - Raven
    Sunlight (3) - Drake, TJ, Kasimir
    Zephyr (2) - RoyalBeeMage, Faerie Braids
    ??? (3) - Hairybarron, TBB, Aeternum


    There are multiple angles we can approach this from:
    1. We know that Raven started with a Midnight Spore. Kas pointed out that the village starting with both a Midnight Spore and a Crimson Spore is somewhat powerful, and while I didn't entirely agree with his reasoning there's still truth in the assertion. Especially in a setup where any player can gain powers (such setups typically tend to be a bit village-favoring, I think), it would be a little odd to give the village such a good starting spread of Spores. Raven was definitely village, so if one of them was lying and/or evil, it'd have to be Aman.
    2. We know that two players claimed to have started with Roseite Spores. Aeoryi and JNV. We know that Aeoryi was village, so like with explaining Kas' death, this pits Aman against JNV. If they aren't both telling the truth, then one of them is probably evil. Whereas if they are both telling the truth, then it is still the case that one of them is probably evil, since it makes sense that the kill and the protect would be positioned on different teams. Giving opposing teams opposing abilities so that they counterbalance each other is solid design.

Is that enough reasons? 😔

 

...If Aman is in fact evil, Aeternum and RoyalBeeMage are both decent candidates for evil teammates, although I'll note that if they're both evil teammates that's bad news cuz in that case we're probably done for cuz that means Hairybarron is village and inactive and rn we need every vote we can get.

[Edit: TBB is also definitely in the running as a possible elim. Because he said he was going to do a Midnight scan last night, but today has shown very little interest in either sharing that supposed result or catching the elims today. At face value, it certainly looks like the point of that claim was to avoid getting killed last night, not to actually give the village any information. TBB being evil probably makes sense both in the case that Aman is evil and in the case that he isn't, but I still think Aman is the safest vote vis a vis definitely executing an evil person today.

In retrospect, TBB is probably a more plausible evil teammate than Royal. For reasons that I will hold my peace about, it is hard for me to believe that evil Royal would claim to have tried to redirect Aman to Kas.

Aman and TBB are likely an elim team. If we're lucky, the third is Hairy. If we're unlucky, then the third is probably Aeternum and the elims will probably just outvote us.]

 

Anyways that's my final answer, vote for who you want me mateys but one way or another today will be decisive o7

Edited by DrakeMarshall
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18 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Fun. GG everyone. Amanuensis.

Bro what am I supposed to do with that 😭

If you're village, then it's clear you've already given up.

If you're evil, then this vote is just really quite performative.

Either way, you're not giving me much to reconsider 😕

Bro you were literally talking smack about Aeoryi self-voting D1 why would you do this if you cared about the village :(

 

Edit: Anyways @Aeternum @RoyalBeeMage @JNV @The Bald Brandon @Hairybarron I apologize for the call-out but this is a wee reminder that none of you have voted thus far.

So that we're all on the same page, these are some facts as I understand them.

  • The elims probably win and end the game if they successfully execute a villager today.
  • There are several ways they can try to achieve this, but one of them is that they can potentially execute a villager by all suddenly voting or changing their votes onto a villager at the last second of the day, giving us no chance to respond if the village votes aren't already strong enough at that point to outweigh them. Not all elim teams are actually able to pull this type of thing off, due to time zones and more generally just life happening preventing people from all getting online at the same time, but it also isn't that rare an occurence.
  • There are probably 3 elims.

Do what you want with that information :ph34r:

This is my third and final post of the turn so you probably won't be hearing much more from me anyways.

Edited by DrakeMarshall
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21 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Bro what am I supposed to do with that 😭

If you're village, then it's clear you've already given up.

If you're evil, then this vote is just really quite performative.

Either way, you're not giving me much to reconsider 😕

Bro you were literally talking smack about Aeoryi self-voting D1 why would you do this if you cared about the village :(

 

Edit: Anyways @Aeternum @RoyalBeeMage @JNV @The Bald Brandon @Hairybarron I apologize for the call-out but this is a wee reminder that none of you have voted thus far.

So that we're all on the same page, these are some facts as I understand them.

  • The elims probably win and end the game if they successfully execute a villager today.
  • There are several ways they can try to achieve this, but one of them is that they can potentially execute a villager by all suddenly voting or changing their votes onto a villager at the last second of the day, giving us no chance to respond if the village votes aren't already strong enough at that point to outweigh them. Not all elim teams are actually able to pull this type of thing off, due to time zones and more generally just life happening preventing people from all getting online at the same time, but it also isn't that rare an occurence.
  • There are probably 3 elims.

Do what you want with that information :ph34r:

This is my third and final post of the turn so you probably won't be hearing much more from me anyways.

22 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Fun. GG everyone. Amanuensis.

i am going to agre with drake's assessment of how aman is either a given up viliger or a given up elim. there is not much one can do in the face of drakes just massive post. there is only a few hours left so i need to vote. currently i have no clue who is the elim. Amanuensis is the best bet we have as a village to win. i think the numbers only work for us if we out an elim. 

 

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‘Twas I

I did it, I did it all

I was the one behind every trip and fall

‘Twas me who struck down TJ,

I was the one who slaughtered Kas to silence his hearsay

The time has come for the final hour

For now I have all of you in my power

So despite you surrounding me

You have already failed to contend with us three

My compatriots in lies

Feed them to the flies

It is time for every last one of you to DIE!

Spoiler

Brandon sat upon a throne of lies, drinking sweet victory from a chalice of mistakes. Before him, the world burned. Brother turned against brother. Pirates mutinied against mutineers who were mutinying against those who had mutinied against the captain. 

In short, it was chaos.

A memory struck him. Another time, another place, another world. A station floating between the stars. It had been completely different, yet there had been two commonalities. Chaos… and himself. Those had been the same.

One of Brandon's compatriots set fire to the ship. Perfect, he thought, just the right ambience. He set down his chalice and hoisted up his lyre. 

Brandon played the lyre as the ship burned, but he sang only a single line. 

“Oops, I did it again.”

Vote, why would I vote? You so kindly did that for me.

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The deadrunners didn't need to do too much to finish off the ship. Barron had apparently drunk himself to death, and had fallen off the ship at some point. Rob Hertz, having grown mad from paranoia, struck out at the man who was not named Aman. The man was drenched in despair, and didn't fight the blows. He gave a salute, as he croaked, "For ever, that is all." His hands bloodied from the beatings, Rob looked up to see Brandon playing a tune, unconcerned with the violence unfolding. Bee quickly grabbed the madman, and put him out of his misery. As for JNV, no one knew where he ended up. He had been carried off by the four winds, and although Aeternum kept a lookout, there was no sign of him. The deadrunners had taken the ship. It was time for plundering.

Hairy Barron has died from inactivity. He was a member of the Loyal Crew
Amanuensis has died. He was a member of the Loyal Crew

The Deadrunners outnumber the members of the Loyal Crew. The Deadrunners have won the game!

Vote Count:
Amanuensis (3): Amanuensis, Drake Marshall, RoyalBeeMage

Player List:

  Hide contents
  1. |TJ| : Grant Loyal Crew
  2. Faerie Braids : Morrigan Loyal Crew
  3. Aeoryi Loyal Crew
  4. @Aeternum Deadrunner
  5. @RoyalBeeMage Deadrunner
  6. TheRavenHasLanded: Revir Loyal Crew
  7. Amanuensis Loyal Crew
  8. @JNV Loyal Crew
  9. @The Bald Brandon Deadrunner
  10. Kasimir : Kelwin Loyal Crew
  11. Hairybarron Loyal Crew
  12. @DrakeMarshall : Rob Hertz Loyal Crew

Docs:

 

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Anyways, takeaways from this game:

1. Stop d1ing me for literally no reason because you haven't seen me in 3-5 weeks and because I'm changed.

2. Don't dismiss weird behavior for any reason, otherwise you end up overcomplicating yourself. I kinda found it funny that faerie died d2 when everyone was saying Aeternum and RBM were acting weirdly, but yk Elims had a good handle on the game and good for them.

3. Stop self voting at lylo because that's basically gamethrowing. In fact, don't self vote in general.

Good game elims and well fought town.

Also, ruleset was cool, and thanks Sart for running this game!

Edited by Aeoryi
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1 minute ago, Aeoryi said:

Anyways, takeaways from this game:

1. Stop d1ing me for literally no reason because you haven't seen me in 3-5 weeks and because I'm changed.

2. Don't dismiss weird behavior for any reason, otherwise you end up overcomplicating yourself. I kinda found it funny that faerie died d2 when everyone was saying Aeternum and RBM were acting weirdly, but yk Elims had a good handle on the game and good for them.

3. Stop self voting at lylo because that's basically gamethrowing. In fact, don't self vote in general.

Good game elims and well fought town.

didnt you self-vote?

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