Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

She is going to be lynched today, giving another Lynch option a push would be defending as well

Then we have a definitional problem. I take self-defense to be purely focused on giving reasons to believe you're Village, which you also intimated. I take casing another player, while it may serve the purposes of self-defense, to be about solving more than self-defense.

2 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I don't?

25 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I was mostly pushing for araris, which I still am. Aeoryi is just being weird, giving reads rather than giving reasons as to why they are village. However, I see where they are coming from if they do end up being village.

<Okaythen.jpg>

Edited to add:

Reasons as to why I am Village =/= Reasons why Someone Else is Not Village and Should Be Voted. I'm not going to engage further as I don't consider this a good use of my time this morning.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Why?

Again, it's not either-or, but Coffee specifically thinks that just giving reads is a problem instead of defending herself, as though there's anything 'just' about showing up and doing Village work. Obsessing with how you look over doing Village work is what got Mat exed in MR56 on C1.

The thing is, just stating names is kind of 'just.' There isn't that much village work. Sure there's some on Aman but not much asides from that. I, personally, would accept just some more quantity reads wise, but I do think as a villager about to be exed, you are obligated to make the best defense you can. I don't always follow that obligation as well as I would like, but I try.

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Reasons as to why I am Village =/= Reasons why Someone Else is Not Village and Should Be Voted

Except... it does equate. Maybe not on a literal level, but it does on a practical level.

But we've established that we have significantly different thought processes in the past, so I'll also stop this here.

[Aeoryi she/her]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

The thing is, just stating names is kind of 'just.' There isn't that much village work. Sure there's some on Aman but not much asides from that. I, personally, would accept just some more quantity reads wise, but I do think as a villager about to be exed, you are obligated to make the best defense you can. I don't always follow that obligation as well as I would like, but I try.

>^•^>

 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

You aren't exactly the easiest son-of-a-chull to exe this side of the Sellen, Dyring!

Well, hopefully the elims haven't figured that out yet .

 

27 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I realize I look pretty bad now that wiz ended up being village, and I'm soooorta not so sure about aeoryi being evil, but i do think araris is.

Do any of the village flips have an impact on your read of me? I feel like some of the suspicion of me came from my interactions with certain players that have since flipped green.

I'm just trying to sus out whether you have concrete reasons for suspecting me, or if you have vague bad feelings lingering from the exe last cycle. Both are valid, but it's nice to know the landscape.

On Aeoryi, I do wish she'd push for someone else. I haven't gotten the impression that the main discussion-drivers are resistant to reconsidering (case in point: myself). I've been bouncing the idea around that she's the SK, since I think her play is kinda in line with what the SK would want, it's just that most people wouldn't be quite so in-your-face about it.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

>^•^>

 

Hmm. My apologies, I must have missed it. I like this, not that I was voting you anyways. I think this is going to stick my vote on Neil then. I could maybe be convinced to Araris/Aman, but I haven't noticed anything about them or really seen anything convincing myself.

[Kasimir he/him]

12 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

I've been bouncing the idea around that she's the SK, since I think her play is kinda in line with what the SK would want, it's just that most people wouldn't be quite so in-your-face about it.

Maybe it's me. I just decided to do a rehash of the Security Officer and went 'screw wincon I'm just gonna meme on the Elims because I can' ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

14 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

On Aeoryi, I do wish she'd push for someone else. I haven't gotten the impression that the main discussion-drivers are resistant to reconsidering (case in point: myself).

I'm legit just parking my vote on her while I rethink everything and rework analysis ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Funny how that takes time to do, if only ChatGPT could write an SE post for me. Respect for Coffee's and Aman's insistence on a possible E!Aeo world is making me relook but in general, I think D2 has ??? moments from Aeo but the D1 exe result is still a major sticking point.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I'm legit just parking my vote on her while I rethink everything and rework analysis ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Funny how that takes time to do, if only ChatGPT could write an SE post for me. Respect for Coffee's and Aman's insistence on a possible E!Aeo world is making me relook but in general, I think D2 has ??? moments from Aeo but the D1 exe result is still a major sticking point.

I mean, if anyone gets the impression that you are resistant to reconsidering then they're even more kayana than you are.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

I mean, if anyone gets the impression that you are resistant to reconsidering then they're even more kayana than you are.

Says the bro who abuses this liberally when Evil!

[Amanuensis he/him]

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I think D2 has ??? moments from Aeo

I don't even care about her C2 as much as I do her C3.

She started today preflipping Araris red and instead of voting him again, voted Coffee, who also voted Araris with her, because she believed they are paired (why prioritize Coffee over Araris?). I just can't get over that.

[Kasimir he/him]

16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I don't even care about her C2 as much as I do her C3.

She started today preflipping Araris red and instead of voting him again, voted Coffee, who also voted Araris with her, because she believed they are paired (why prioritize Coffee over Araris?). I just can't get over that.

Question for you. After her gamethrowing openwolfing in MR66, do you think E!Aeo is cool with self-voting into a tie into D1 EoD? (Genuine question - I think you could say yes, but I'm squinting.)

Edited to add:

To be clear, I think self-voting qua self-voting is something Aeo would do regardless of alignment so it's NAI. But under the circumstances, as her teammate, I'd feel deeply uncomfortable, if not put out. I'm struggling to see them go 'you do you queen '. Maybe I'm projecting my discomfort with having been E with Winter here (looooong story), but I kind of think that she'd rein it back just a little or at least have a social incentive to do so in the form of a doc.

SK is a possibility I've been considering, but the Raven kill makes me question.

Edited to add 2:

Sorry, still not clarifying properly. I mean self-voting qua self-voting, she'd do no matter what. But self-voting into a tie (she believed it was a tie, and it was only broken by a Villager) and continuing to lean hard into the chaos streak beyond that?

I agree you can say I'm making a TWTBAW argument and I suppose on some level it washes out as that. I just kind of would like to hope that Aeo wouldn't drive her teammates to drinking like it's a new sacrament, I guess, given her expressed sentiments after MR66.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Order he/him]

I question how anything!Aeoryi is cool with self voting period after that. I think a good case could be made for sk!Aeoryi not caring because it only affects her, but I would hope neither v! nor e!Aeoryi would do it. 

[Kasimir he/him]

12 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

I question how anything!Aeoryi is cool with self voting period after that. I think a good case could be made for sk!Aeoryi not caring because it only affects her, but I would hope neither v! nor e!Aeoryi would do it. 

We know she does it on a regular basis on impulse - cf. LG98 and QF69 which she explicitly cites as "don't do it." (Impulse because she does it anyway despite citing QF69.) But I'm saying it's one thing to be a regular self-voter and another thing to do it deliberately in situations that materially affect your team's win chances, in light of the blowback she got that game.

It's easier to displease the Village because you know, so many people and the thread. It's harder to do that with a doc who can vocally express their displeasure. It's a different setting. Again, maybe I'm projecting.

The main place I hesitate on SK!Aeo is the Raven shot. But that being said, I don't know Aeo well enough to know how much she'd go with that particular taboo.

Edited to add:

Like I don't even think there's any form of 'have to emulate my Village self' pressure here because I legit don't think anyone would bat an eye at her not self-voting. I think it's just pure impulse. But I feel she's also pro-social enough to be a bit more restrained on it with teammates, and even if not, should've been after that D1 EoD. I dunno. Spitballing ig.

Edited to add 2:

Can someone post please. I just want to drop analysis and go nap and I can't if that merge is going to bork a longer post up and it shouldn't merge anyway.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir
missing word 'pressure'

[Amanuensis he/him]

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Question for you. After her gamethrowing openwolfing in MR66, do you think E!Aeo is cool with self-voting into a tie into D1 EoD? (Genuine question - I think you could say yes, but I'm squinting.)

Yeah idk. Logically she should have never started openwolfing this game in the first place, or at least stopped after it kept making people vote and sus her. The fact she keeps tripling down and then using AtE when she starts reaping what she sowed is just not a confidence booster to me. The only world in which any of this might make sense to me is if she is the (fake) real Brandon dodging the NK, but no.

Here's my problem. When half of your posts are chaos and elim claims, and half are genuine self defense posts or solving attempts, and there's no clear delineation or admittance that "yeah I'm trolling sometimes, I'm sorry, I'll stop," how on earth can any villager take what's being said seriously? I just literally can't and if she's not going to help she needs to get. If she isn't the SK or a self-sabotaging elim, she's just plain anti-village and more helpful to us dead.

Possible I'm being harsh there but like. Actions have consequences & in my view she's muddied the waters far too much already for me to have any reason not to believe she is evil. Her behavior is not village in any meaningful sense, regardless of what her alignment actually is.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

If she isn't the SK or a self-sabotaging elim, she's just plain anti-village and more helpful to us dead.

Aman bro - I understand this, but I don't really want to ever go there ever since we exed Jain on the basis of being anti-Village. I get it but it left a bad taste in my mouth when we did it, and I never want to do it again. If you are green and I'm green, I defend you to the death. I'd rather request Aeo please tone it down if we're all triggering each other and ask the IM to de-escalate rather than to go there. I think killing Aeo for it given the considerations is extreme.

There are meta-comments I can make about how I don't think, in general, that everyone's responses is helpful (cf. Sono and here and escalation), but I'm going to shock @Winnie the Pookla and @Elandera and especially @Devotary of Spontaneity especially in light of my repeated brawls with Coffee by saying that I don't think this thread is the time and place for it.

Maybe Araris in particular will drop dead from shock and we'll get his flip right now  

---

Anyway, my analysis dump. I'm currently going to vote JNV.

 I am actually temporarily ignoring your questions. Sorry @Amanuensis - I realised part of my answers was my explaining why I'm critical of the train approach to NKA here and now, but that required looking at the trains, and formulating my views on them so I guess I'll approach Q1 first in a roundabout way.

Remember again that I've explained why the Elims were killing Ravenclaw qua Archer voter. The fact Devo died and flipped Village validates this. (Again, let me retrace my logic. If the Elims didn't miss Ravenclaw's vote, it's very likely that Mat would have had his mistake caught in the Elim doc. The fact I had to catch the vote issue is in my view strongly suggestive that the correct counts on which to do analysis are the mistaken ones.) This means the EoD vc (or near-EoD vc) the Elims were working with looked like this:

Cycle One:

Quote

Archer (4): Araris, Raven, Wiz, Ravenclaw
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (2): Neil, Aman
No Vote (5): Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN

Here's the thing - there's high vote dispersion in this EoD, with votes stable until EoD. Recall that the main movers were: <Neil, Aman, Raven, Devo, Wiz>, which means even in an E!Neil world all the vote changers were Village. We know at least 3/5 of them were Village, indicating high E contentment with EoD.

Or to put it another way:

There was high vote dispersion for a significant chunk of D1.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (1): Aman
Wiz (1): Archer
JNV (2): Kas, Aeo
Aeo (1): Cash

7 active trains, at largely values of 1 with the JNV train as the outlier. 3/7 of these trains are flipped Village. This timeslice is from Cash (flipped Villager) voting on Aeo for being frantic, at just under five hours to EoD.

That in my opinion entails a further claim:

There was high Elim complacency near D1 EoD - no significant pressure to generate CWs, with no particular player under threat.

This is backed up by, again, the fact most activity happens after the five hours to EoD mark and is, in my view, strongly Village-skewed.

With the main movers were: <Neil, Aman, Raven, Devo, Wiz>, which means even in an E!Neil world all the vote changers were Village. We know at least 3/5 of them were Village, indicating high E contentment with EoD. (We can throw in Archer for six movers, but that doesn't matter here since Archer flipped Village as well.) 

Certainly, at the time Wiz shifted from Ash to Aeo, he thought he was breaking a tie between Archer and Aeo by killing Archer. 

@Amanuensis - This is the one thing that draws me short wrt an E!Aeo team. Based off this, where could partners be? Wiz changed in the last ten minutes, meaning if E partners were around, they were fundamentally okay with rolling the dice on Aeo.

Quote

Archer (3): Araris, Raven, Ravenclaw
JNV (1): Kas
Ash (1): Wiz
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (2): Neil, Aman
No Vote (5): Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN

This was the landscape you, Neil, and Ash were okay with (possibly Araris.) Araris I know is absolutely okay with risk and would likely never have swapped at all. Ash was second train and probably didn't want to cause a flashwagon situation regardless of his alignment. 

Neil actively keeps calling for Ravenclaw voters and expressing anxiety about the tie, so I guess there's some potential there - he really can't swap onto Archer given his declared V!read, and Ash making it a 1/3 (Ash/Neil/Aeo anyone?) or 2/3 might not be much better. Not sure.

Option B: <Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN> - Harsh when Alpha and JNV were both MIA, and Aeo had self-voted and couldn't be around. (Ngl if I were her E!partner I'd be so mad at that stupid vanity self-vote for causing me an EoD heart attack.) At most one from here I think.

I think it's possible to postulate an E!Aeo here, you just need a partner in <Araris, Neil> (two? IDK this is purely vote-related) and maybe a maximum of one in <Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN.> I don't deny Aeo has major impulse control problems which makes me think we'll never get along on an E team because it's frustrating as all hell to deal with and I was E with Winter* before, but. After Aeo's chaos causing her team heart attacks in MR66, does she double down here? IDK - maybe you could argue yes: character/nature is character/nature which means she's just going to fundamentally keep behaving in the same ways. If you're an optimist about human nature, then you say no ig.

This isn't a meta read. It's a mata read, btw.

I lean V/V even so because of where the main movements come from. But ngl can understand the temptation to just flip the damn CW and call it a day.

*I have a significant amount of trauma from most E games, but being E with Winter, I'm sorry to say, was a special shade of hell and that's probably colouring my take here.

Cycle Two

1. Game Notes: Observations

Holding space again.

Spoiler

-Feels ??? from Aeo given her normal struggles to stay alive and usual hypersensitivity to any suggestion she may be E. Unclear why sudden deathwish around Ash.

-Still get Aman's ??? over this post - looks a bit like an Elim trying to vote for someone he knows is V so many hedges enough I think we're invading Normady.

-Disagree with Araris's PoE line of reasoning here for kill analysis. Feel it doesn't fit - if he's theorising non-voting Elims, not for the first time, why are Neil and Aeo inviolate. 

-If E!Aman and V!Araris, just putting it out here I am a SE prophet.

Quote

!RemindMe for F5 when Aman tries to get me to ML Araris for the challenge. Truly the one where all our hearts were broken 

-Interested how Coffee knows Araris is supposed to be a strong lategame player if he hasn't played for quite a while?

-Aeo claims Devo voting on her EoD is Villagery. I still dgi.

-Not the first time Neil floats the idea of an Elim team under the radar. I am starting to doubt it at this juncture, and am concerned wrt what this says about the kills. Agreed Neil was saying it one cycle ago though and it's not intuitive to me to paranoia push in my V reads early on.

-Interesting comment from Coffee about Aman not being likely to be BranAman Sanderson, in light of the fact the Elims seem to be not wanting to touch Aman. V!Coffee stonks???

-Interesting question from Aman at Neil in light of my earlier mention of Neil/Aeo/Ash crack or Araris crack.

-LOLMAO DID CASH FORGET HE WAS VOTING DEVO RIP DEVO she's so invisible people even forget they vote/others are voting for her.

-Sidenote comment Aeo made that rings alarm bells from MR66. [Recheck - potentially insincere.]

-Interesting comment from TKN voting for Cash and Cash's SK likelihood - why does least likely to be Village include an SK assessment?

-I actually like this comment from Coffee. It feels very light-hearted, despite the suspicion, and playful.

 

2. Vote Analysis [RAW]

Spoiler

Cash votes Wiz off the bat. Probably should've given the mindmeld more credit. Aeo votes Araris. I go for Coffee because I saw Coffee lurking last cycle and disliked it. Wiz votes Araris, doubling up. Coffee doubles up on Wiz with a strongly hedgy post.

Quote

Wiz (2): Cash, Coffee
Araris (2): Aeo, Wiz
Coffee (1): Kas
Cash (1): Wiz

Aeo sheeps lurker discussion to vote TKN. Also not really sure why she says "we don't wanna exe him yet" wrt BS!Aman. I'd argue we don't wanna exe BS!Aman simpliciter. Unexplained Araris vote never explained now easily removed ig.

Quote

Wiz (2): Cash, Coffee
Araris (1): Wiz
Coffee (1): Kas
TKN (1): Aeo

Neil makes up for the difference by revoting Araris.

Quote

Wiz (2): Cash, Coffee
Araris (2): Wiz, Neil
Coffee (1): Kas
TKN (1): Aeo

I unvote Coffee and vote Cash due to liking Coffee's Aman push - felt like an Elim wouldn't dare to be so direct given the claim in question.

Quote

Wiz (2): Cash, Coffee
Araris (2): Wiz, Neil
TKN (1): Aeo
Cash (1): Kas

Coffee unvotes Wiz and votes Aman as he sees Aman lurking and also doesn't like Aman's BS claim. I see Coffee's language is once again hedgy. We goin' in to Normady now.

Quote

Wiz (1): Cash
Araris (2): Wiz, Neil
TKN (1): Aeo
Cash (1): Kas
Aman (1): Coffee

Aeo votes Devo. Unclear why. Cash shifts to Devo, furthering the curse of Village-on-Village violence. We have Araris in one lead train, and Devo in the other - at least 1/2 Village.

Quote

Araris (2): Wiz, Neil
Cash (1): Kas
Aman (1): Coffee
Devo (2): Aeo, Cash

Devo needs to stop voting people for slips smh. First the Archer gaslighting, now Cash. Anyway, Devo votes Cash. Meanwhile, Aman joins Neil on Araris. If V!Araris, we now have three lead trains, all on Villagers. If E!Araris, we have 2/3 lead trains, with Araris in the lead as an E train.

Quote

Araris (3): Wiz, Neil, Aman
Cash (2): Kas, Devo
Aman (1): Coffee
Devo (2): Aeo, Cash

Aeo votes Cash with another promissary note. This blows up the Cash train. Response to Araris threat? Unclear. This ties Araris with Cash.

Quote

Araris (3): Wiz, Neil, Aman
Cash (3): Kas, Devo, Aeo
Aman (1): Coffee
Devo (1): Cash

Somewhere after Rollovet, Aman votes TKN. Noting that Aeo asks for reasons while still hasn't explained Cash vote. This leaves Cash in the lead.

Quote

Araris (2): Wiz, Neil
Cash (3): Kas, Devo, Aeo
Aman (1): Coffee
Devo (1): Cash
TKN (1): Aman

Aeo goes from Cash to TKN on the basis of Cash being a returning player which is ??? to me. Yes, it's C2 but half the damn game roster is returning, if you don't exe suspicious people (presuming in the first place the initial vote was suspicion-based) and just kinda pressure others, what's the point? It feels like more Elim kill reasoning slipping out in vote reasoning tbh. Anyway, this creates a three-way tie.

Quote

Araris (2): Wiz, Neil
Cash (2): Kas, Devo
Aman (1): Coffee
Devo (1): Cash
TKN (2): Aman, Aeo

I guess here's the thing so far. If Araris is E, where are his teammates? Neil bussing early? Coffee trying to CW Aman? (I still think that was an alright push in my eyes.) Aman trying to CW TKN? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Anyway - Cash swaps and tries to start a Wiz train. The curse of Village-on-Village violence returns.

Quote

Araris (2): Wiz, Neil
Cash (2): Kas, Devo
Aman (1): Coffee
TKN (2): Aman, Aeo
Wiz (1): Cash

It's five hours to rollover, and the trains are split, but have a few 2trains than C1. Aman shifts to Araris. This pushes Araris to lead train. Aeo moves soon after to Cash, tying the two trains. Feel that E!Araris in this case maybe suggestive of E!Aeo (note direction of implication.) Exactly a minute later, Araris also votes Cash, exploding that train. I actually think this pushes against a teaming - not sure Araris would want a tiebreak so soon if they had doc coordination. Cash is (now) king.

I actually don't really get Araris's reasoning for voting Cash wrt expecting the Elims to continue to exterminate the Archer train. It just feels ??? Especially with Cash pointing out that Cash hasn't really pressured Araris and this is true: he's moved between Wiz and Devo.

Quote

Araris (3): Wiz, Neil, Aman
Cash (4): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Araris
Aman (1): Coffee
Wiz (1): Cash

Coffee votes Araris with a case that essentially assumes E!Araris and then takes anyone with Araris to be potentially teamed with Araris which is <okaythen.jpg> The fact that the analysis Coffee posted presumes E!Araris and then proceeds to ascribe reads on that basis feels a bit ??? and makes me wonder if this is an Elim struggling to generate a case - assuming E!Araris and sussing/Vleaning on that basis isn't casing. It's sticking the arrow in the target then saying "ok well this is what the shot tells us" but the point isn't the destination but how you get there. This is what I mean when I say that it's fiction and I can't see a basis.

I'm going to quote Zhuangzi here just because I can:

Quote

“If a made-up mind(cheng xin) counts as a teacher, then who doesn’t have a teacher? Why should it just be the self-chosen experts on the order of things who have them? Stupid people would have them, too. But to have right and wrong before you’ve made up your mind—that’s like leaving for Yue today and getting there yesterday! That’s like saying what isn’t is. What isn’t is? Even the spiritual sage Yu couldn’t make sense of that.” (Ivanhoe & Van Norden, 2001).

Quote

Araris (4): Wiz, Neil, Aman, Coffee
Cash (4): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Araris
Wiz (1): Cash

Anyway, Coffee ties, and votes on Araris, which is positive for Cash.

Wiz tie-breaks onto Cash. Once again, the curse of Village-on-Village violence haunts us.

Quote

Araris (3): Neil, Aman, Coffee
Cash (5): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Araris, Wiz
Wiz (1): Cash

Aeo swaps back from Cash to Araris, tying them. Side-note that the amount of flipped green on the Cash wagon is depressing.

Quote

Araris (4): Neil, Aman, Coffee, Aeo
Cash (4): Kas, Devo, Araris, Wiz
Wiz (1): Cash

After agonising, I break the tie by voting Araris. This happens around 50 minutes to rollover.

Quote

Araris (5): Neil, Aman, Coffee, Aeo, Kas
Cash (3): Devo, Araris, Wiz
Wiz (1): Cash

At sixteen minutes to rollover, Aman re-ties it, allowing Devo the option to break it. She declines. TBH this indicates low investment from Aman wrt the trains.

Quote

Araris (4): Neil, Coffee, Aeo, Kas
Cash (4): Devo, Araris, Wiz, Aman
Wiz (1): Cash

And then Araris wins the RNG which is...not surprising actually.

C2 Thoughts/Analysis:

Quote

Araris (4): Neil, Coffee, Aeo, Kas
Cash (4): Devo, Araris, Wiz, Aman
Wiz (1): Cash
No Vote (4): Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN

Apathy is similar between C1 EoD and D1 EoD in that our chronic non-voters continue to be chronic non-voters. If we think this category still has the most Elims ( @Winnie the Pookla, you had this thought. Are you still on it?) then it entails that basically there was no vote on an Elim anyway.

The difficulty here is that I think apathy is pretty much expected from our No Vote tier, with Ash and Alpha showing up once and disappearing, so there's little we can do about it. JNV had RL, and TKN is a chronic non-voter so I wasn't expecting a difference.

Neil pushes Araris and stayed put. Aeo swung between Araris, Cash, and back to Araris again - it's hard to see them teamed, I think, and it suggests a certain lack of investment, given her regrets about giving her teammates early heart attacks in MR66. Coffee's more or less launched a Crusade for Damascus - sorry, Araris, but has more or less reached the destination immediately and is using it to draw conclusions. I kind of want to side-eye Coffee for methodological reasons but the Aman push and the post I picked out both seem like positives here.

My final answer: disappointing, but difficult to call, so I want to pathwalk. I lean by a very slight hair towards V!Araris, on the same basis that a lot of the shifts came late from flipped Villagers or Village credences, but don't really have a strong reason to believe so.

A. V!Araris

Quote

Araris (4): Neil, Coffee, Aeo, Kas
Cash (4): Devo, Araris, Wiz, Aman
Wiz (1): Cash
No Vote (4): Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN

Ex hypothesi, Araris is V. I'm fine with V Aman at this stage, I sort of maybe am with JNV but am probably going to rethink this nearly a hundred times. So where are our Elims?

In <Neil, Coffee, Aeo> IMO, with an Aman side - not sure if all are, as I think there are reasons to V!read Coffee and Aeo, so let's ID Neil as one of the suspects and orange them both on a positional basis. (The main defeater for Coffee I think is something in the vicinity of 'insane Elim meta.') 

Unfortunately, IDing the potential teammate in <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN> feels like a crapshoot here. And if I'm correct about my Coffee and Aeo reads, I'm almost required to believe there's a teammate in there. If I think V!Neil, then our entire inactive tier is just Elims+SK, but IDK.

B. E!Araris

Quote

Araris (4): Neil, Coffee, Aeo, Kas
Cash (4): Devo, Araris, Wiz, Aman
Wiz (1): Cash
No Vote (4): Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN

Ex hypothesi, Araris is E. The thing is: where are Araris's teammates? Bussing Araris? Inactive? I think Aman asked this question and it's just bloody weird IMO.

I expect at most a maximum of one teammate in <Neil, Coffee, Aeo>, with a strong possibility there's none. Neil's vote stayed for way too long, so I'd italicise him as it started as a pressure vote and then never budged. He had plenty of time to go somewhere else without looking too suspicious. Coffee being Araris delenda est doesn't really work, I'd argue, because Coffee hasn't exactly been shy about pushing Araris. This leaves us with Aeo, which sort of works in light of Aeo hopping between the Cash and the Araris trains, but she ended up on Araris and stayed there, which doesn't feel as right (I'd rather think Aeo has low commitment to either train.)

Aman doesn't feel correct here because he was pushing Araris. I remember from LG94 he has risk tolerance, because what the hell was that D1 even  but continuing to keep the fire on Araris just seems like an odd decision.

Which really, once again, points to the <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN> barrel, which is...really hard to differentiate. Maybe slightly less for TKN, but TKN has been known (cf. QF64) to avoid defending teammates before to stymie vote analysis.

IN SUMMATION/OVERALL CONCLUSIONS:

- Feel V/V is best explanation of D1; this likely points to V!Aeo, recognise I am Devil's Advocating @Amanuensis at this point but that's my function.
- Slightly lean towards V!Araris on D2 for V/V due to where the swings were coming from: E!Araris requires largely inactive partners IMO, with a maximum of one in <Neil, Coffee, Aeo.> V!Araris probably points to some in <Neil, Aeo, Coffee> but I kinda don't think so, so probably most willing to look at Neil in there, with partners in <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN.>
-I feel in either world, there's a commitment to Elims in the <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN> pool. I'm considering going on JNV in light of that as I think it's more productive than an Araris shot. People are free to talk me into something else.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Regardless of whether Araris is V or E, there are only two options. Elims voted Araris or declined to vote.

- Neil had Araris preference over Cash (why?)

- Aeo had Araris preference then gave up after his survival (why?)

- Coffee has been fixated on Araris and I (why?)

If the elims are in the non-voters, then why kill Devo? How? Were any of them even around enough to make that decision? I do not get the impression whoever submitted that kill did so without being on around EoD, which leaves who?

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Regardless of whether Araris is V or E, there are only two options. Elims voted Araris or declined to vote.

- Neil had Araris preference over Cash (why?)

- Aeo had Araris preference then gave up after his survival (why?)

- Coffee has been fixated on Araris and I (why?)

If the elims are in the non-voters, then why kill Devo? How? Were any of them even around enough to make that decision? I do not get the impression whoever submitted that kill did so without being on around EoD, which leaves who?

I was going to edit this into my post, but I think this might work:

I think there's a question one can ask about how this works with my view of the NK and potential timestamps - my reply is this is pure vote analysis, but also, that's why I'm voting JNV  Alpha and Ash likely wouldn't have noticed, I think, so it's between JNV and TKN. TKN has acknowledged his personal kill meta is aggressive, so requires a teammate who would override that. I can do a more extensive NKA later but it's nearly 5AM now and I have spent longer than I wanted to just hammering this out. 

I don't believe they needed to be on at EoD - I was adamant about Devo being cleared before that. I could see Wiz being the SK kill after calls for his shot and I'm less interested in finding the SK here.

Edited to add:

Specifically, I made several longposts about how Devo was likely V and how the NK could not have come from her. I think that's a shot I could see the Elims making, especially if they popped into thread briefly enough to see me hammer this home repeatedly - it doesn't require EoD presence.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Elandera she/her]

Popping in real quick to provide a quick reminder about some rules and general etiquette.

Make sure your arguments about a player are not solely based on playstyle. Sometimes players work differently. They have different capabilities, strengths, and weaknesses. Playing in a way that is not how you would play is not necessarily alignment-indicative. We discourage dictation of playstyle for a reason.

That being said, we do encourage players to work for the benefit of their team. Please take time to consider responses and how it might impact your team and other players. Avoid actions that could be construed as overt emotional manipulation or gamethrowing.

If any of you have concerns or frustrations about what any other players are doing, please reach out to me and I will do what I can to help all players involved.

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I was going to edit this into my post, but I think this might work:

I think there's a question one can ask about how this works with my view of the NK and potential timestamps - my reply is this is pure vote analysis, but also, that's why I'm voting JNV  Alpha and Ash likely wouldn't have noticed, I think, so it's between JNV and TKN. TKN has acknowledged his personal kill meta is aggressive, so requires a teammate who would override that. I can do a more extensive NKA later but it's nearly 5AM now and I have spent longer than I wanted to just hammering this out. 

I don't believe they needed to be on at EoD - I was adamant about Devo being cleared before that. I could see Wiz being the SK kill after calls for his shot and I'm less interested in finding the SK here.

Edited to add:

Specifically, I made several longposts about how Devo was likely V and how the NK could not have come from her. I think that's a shot I could see the Elims making, especially if they popped into thread briefly enough to see me hammer this home repeatedly - it doesn't require EoD presence.

Maybe I just don't remember any of your earlier talking about Devo. Felt like she only came up when I started asking why you wrote her off, which probably explains your confusion on me today

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Maybe I just don't remember any of your earlier talking about Devo. Felt like she only came up when I started asking why you wrote her off, which probably explains your confusion on me today

I first banged on about likelihood of V!Devo at 2101hrs, which...sorry too tired to timezone maths, but rollover is 0700hrs for me, so do your own maths please  This post is a bit long, but the Devo point is in two bullet points, frontloaded.

At 2324hrs, I then make a second longpost. This time, the Devo analysis is buried in a spoiler box but still there.

In response to Aeo, at 0112hrs, I once again assert V!Devo.

Even then, the Elims don't necessarily need to go to the conclusion through me - Mat made the announcement at 0135hrs, and I could see Elims with TMI immediately realising what the mistake entails since Mat also states Devo caught the error.

At 0236hrs, I promote Devo to the highest tier on my readslist.

At 0325hrs, JNV returns and states they'll be reading to catch up.

(I'll add that my initial post on the Devo issue misses Ash by a hair - Ash is on at about 2040hrs my time.)

At 0457hrs, I once again remind people that Devo is most likely V so please, you have one job if I die, don't kill her. I think this is the one that caught your attention.

I could go on but I think my point is amply made - I latched onto V!Devo quite a bit earlier, and both Ash and JNV were in a position to see that and potentially make a kill based on a strong perception she was going to be hardcleared. More so for JNV than Ash. They don't need to be on at EoD for this.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

So I guess I'm back to voting Ash? Smh

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

So I guess I'm back to voting Ash? Smh

Why Ash?

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Why Ash?

1. I wanted to C1 him and Aeo threw herself on the cross when I tried so I believe they are paired

2. I just saw him in thread not too long ago so am encouraging him to participate

3. Literally who else is there to vote for?

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Aman bro - I understand this, but I don't really want to ever go there ever since we exed Jain on the basis of being anti-Village. I get it but it left a bad taste in my mouth when we did it, and I never want to do it again. If you are green and I'm green, I defend you to the death. I'd rather request Aeo please tone it down if we're all triggering each other and ask the IM to de-escalate rather than to go there. I think killing Aeo for it given the considerations is extreme.

There are meta-comments I can make about how I don't think, in general, that everyone's responses is helpful (cf. Sono and here and escalation), but I'm going to shock @Winnie the Pookla and @Elandera and especially @Devotary of Spontaneity especially in light of my repeated brawls with Coffee by saying that I don't think this thread is the time and place for it.

Maybe Araris in particular will drop dead from shock and we'll get his flip right now  

 

---

Anyway, my analysis dump. I'm currently going to vote JNV.

 I am actually temporarily ignoring your questions. Sorry @Amanuensis - I realised part of my answers was my explaining why I'm critical of the train approach to NKA here and now, but that required looking at the trains, and formulating my views on them so I guess I'll approach Q1 first in a roundabout way.

Remember again that I've explained why the Elims were killing Ravenclaw qua Archer voter. The fact Devo died and flipped Village validates this. (Again, let me retrace my logic. If the Elims didn't miss Ravenclaw's vote, it's very likely that Mat would have had his mistake caught in the Elim doc. The fact I had to catch the vote issue is in my view strongly suggestive that the correct counts on which to do analysis are the mistaken ones.) This means the EoD vc (or near-EoD vc) the Elims were working with looked like this:

Cycle One:

Here's the thing - there's high vote dispersion in this EoD, with votes stable until EoD. Recall that the main movers were: <Neil, Aman, Raven, Devo, Wiz>, which means even in an E!Neil world all the vote changers were Village. We know at least 3/5 of them were Village, indicating high E contentment with EoD.

Or to put it another way:

There was high vote dispersion for a significant chunk of D1.

7 active trains, at largely values of 1 with the JNV train as the outlier. 3/7 of these trains are flipped Village. This timeslice is from Cash (flipped Villager) voting on Aeo for being frantic, at just under five hours to EoD.

That in my opinion entails a further claim:

There was high Elim complacency near D1 EoD - no significant pressure to generate CWs, with no particular player under threat.

This is backed up by, again, the fact most activity happens after the five hours to EoD mark and is, in my view, strongly Village-skewed.

With the main movers were: <Neil, Aman, Raven, Devo, Wiz>, which means even in an E!Neil world all the vote changers were Village. We know at least 3/5 of them were Village, indicating high E contentment with EoD. (We can throw in Archer for six movers, but that doesn't matter here since Archer flipped Village as well.) 

Certainly, at the time Wiz shifted from Ash to Aeo, he thought he was breaking a tie between Archer and Aeo by killing Archer. 

@Amanuensis - This is the one thing that draws me short wrt an E!Aeo team. Based off this, where could partners be? Wiz changed in the last ten minutes, meaning if E partners were around, they were fundamentally okay with rolling the dice on Aeo.

This was the landscape you, Neil, and Ash were okay with (possibly Araris.) Araris I know is absolutely okay with risk and would likely never have swapped at all. Ash was second train and probably didn't want to cause a flashwagon situation regardless of his alignment. 

Neil actively keeps calling for Ravenclaw voters and expressing anxiety about the tie, so I guess there's some potential there - he really can't swap onto Archer given his declared V!read, and Ash making it a 1/3 (Ash/Neil/Aeo anyone?) or 2/3 might not be much better. Not sure.

Option B: <Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN> - Harsh when Alpha and JNV were both MIA, and Aeo had self-voted and couldn't be around. (Ngl if I were her E!partner I'd be so mad at that stupid vanity self-vote for causing me an EoD heart attack.) At most one from here I think.

I think it's possible to postulate an E!Aeo here, you just need a partner in <Araris, Neil> (two? IDK this is purely vote-related) and maybe a maximum of one in <Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN.> I don't deny Aeo has major impulse control problems which makes me think we'll never get along on an E team because it's frustrating as all hell to deal with and I was E with Winter* before, but. After Aeo's chaos causing her team heart attacks in MR66, does she double down here? IDK - maybe you could argue yes: character/nature is character/nature which means she's just going to fundamentally keep behaving in the same ways. If you're an optimist about human nature, then you say no ig.

This isn't a meta read. It's a mata read, btw.

I lean V/V even so because of where the main movements come from. But ngl can understand the temptation to just flip the damn CW and call it a day.

*I have a significant amount of trauma from most E games, but being E with Winter, I'm sorry to say, was a special shade of hell and that's probably colouring my take here.

Cycle Two

1. Game Notes: Observations

Holding space again.

  Reveal hidden contents

-Feels ??? from Aeo given her normal struggles to stay alive and usual hypersensitivity to any suggestion she may be E. Unclear why sudden deathwish around Ash.

-Still get Aman's ??? over this post - looks a bit like an Elim trying to vote for someone he knows is V so many hedges enough I think we're invading Normady.

-Disagree with Araris's PoE line of reasoning here for kill analysis. Feel it doesn't fit - if he's theorising non-voting Elims, not for the first time, why are Neil and Aeo inviolate. 

-If E!Aman and V!Araris, just putting it out here I am a SE prophet.

-Interested how Coffee knows Araris is supposed to be a strong lategame player if he hasn't played for quite a while?

-Aeo claims Devo voting on her EoD is Villagery. I still dgi.

-Not the first time Neil floats the idea of an Elim team under the radar. I am starting to doubt it at this juncture, and am concerned wrt what this says about the kills. Agreed Neil was saying it one cycle ago though and it's not intuitive to me to paranoia push in my V reads early on.

-Interesting comment from Coffee about Aman not being likely to be BranAman Sanderson, in light of the fact the Elims seem to be not wanting to touch Aman. V!Coffee stonks???

-Interesting question from Aman at Neil in light of my earlier mention of Neil/Aeo/Ash crack or Araris crack.

-LOLMAO DID CASH FORGET HE WAS VOTING DEVO RIP DEVO she's so invisible people even forget they vote/others are voting for her.

-Sidenote comment Aeo made that rings alarm bells from MR66. [Recheck - potentially insincere.]

-Interesting comment from TKN voting for Cash and Cash's SK likelihood - why does least likely to be Village include an SK assessment?

-I actually like this comment from Coffee. It feels very light-hearted, despite the suspicion, and playful.

 

2. Vote Analysis [RAW]

  Reveal hidden contents

Cash votes Wiz off the bat. Probably should've given the mindmeld more credit. Aeo votes Araris. I go for Coffee because I saw Coffee lurking last cycle and disliked it. Wiz votes Araris, doubling up. Coffee doubles up on Wiz with a strongly hedgy post.

Aeo sheeps lurker discussion to vote TKN. Also not really sure why she says "we don't wanna exe him yet" wrt BS!Aman. I'd argue we don't wanna exe BS!Aman simpliciter. Unexplained Araris vote never explained now easily removed ig.

Neil makes up for the difference by revoting Araris.

I unvote Coffee and vote Cash due to liking Coffee's Aman push - felt like an Elim wouldn't dare to be so direct given the claim in question.

Coffee unvotes Wiz and votes Aman as he sees Aman lurking and also doesn't like Aman's BS claim. I see Coffee's language is once again hedgy. We goin' in to Normady now.

Aeo votes Devo. Unclear why. Cash shifts to Devo, furthering the curse of Village-on-Village violence. We have Araris in one lead train, and Devo in the other - at least 1/2 Village.

Devo needs to stop voting people for slips smh. First the Archer gaslighting, now Cash. Anyway, Devo votes Cash. Meanwhile, Aman joins Neil on Araris. If V!Araris, we now have three lead trains, all on Villagers. If E!Araris, we have 2/3 lead trains, with Araris in the lead as an E train.

Aeo votes Cash with another promissary note. This blows up the Cash train. Response to Araris threat? Unclear. This ties Araris with Cash.

Somewhere after Rollovet, Aman votes TKN. Noting that Aeo asks for reasons while still hasn't explained Cash vote. This leaves Cash in the lead.

Aeo goes from Cash to TKN on the basis of Cash being a returning player which is ??? to me. Yes, it's C2 but half the damn game roster is returning, if you don't exe suspicious people (presuming in the first place the initial vote was suspicion-based) and just kinda pressure others, what's the point? It feels like more Elim kill reasoning slipping out in vote reasoning tbh. Anyway, this creates a three-way tie.

I guess here's the thing so far. If Araris is E, where are his teammates? Neil bussing early? Coffee trying to CW Aman? (I still think that was an alright push in my eyes.) Aman trying to CW TKN? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Anyway - Cash swaps and tries to start a Wiz train. The curse of Village-on-Village violence returns.

It's five hours to rollover, and the trains are split, but have a few 2trains than C1. Aman shifts to Araris. This pushes Araris to lead train. Aeo moves soon after to Cash, tying the two trains. Feel that E!Araris in this case maybe suggestive of E!Aeo (note direction of implication.) Exactly a minute later, Araris also votes Cash, exploding that train. I actually think this pushes against a teaming - not sure Araris would want a tiebreak so soon if they had doc coordination. Cash is (now) king.

I actually don't really get Araris's reasoning for voting Cash wrt expecting the Elims to continue to exterminate the Archer train. It just feels ??? Especially with Cash pointing out that Cash hasn't really pressured Araris and this is true: he's moved between Wiz and Devo.

Coffee votes Araris with a case that essentially assumes E!Araris and then takes anyone with Araris to be potentially teamed with Araris which is <okaythen.jpg> The fact that the analysis Coffee posted presumes E!Araris and then proceeds to ascribe reads on that basis feels a bit ??? and makes me wonder if this is an Elim struggling to generate a case - assuming E!Araris and sussing/Vleaning on that basis isn't casing. It's sticking the arrow in the target then saying "ok well this is what the shot tells us" but the point isn't the destination but how you get there. This is what I mean when I say that it's fiction and I can't see a basis.

I'm going to quote Zhuangzi here just because I can:

Anyway, Coffee ties, and votes on Araris, which is positive for Cash.

Wiz tie-breaks onto Cash. Once again, the curse of Village-on-Village violence haunts us.

Aeo swaps back from Cash to Araris, tying them. Side-note that the amount of flipped green on the Cash wagon is depressing.

After agonising, I break the tie by voting Araris. This happens around 50 minutes to rollover.

At sixteen minutes to rollover, Aman re-ties it, allowing Devo the option to break it. She declines. TBH this indicates low investment from Aman wrt the trains.

And then Araris wins the RNG which is...not surprising actually.

C2 Thoughts/Analysis:

Apathy is similar between C1 EoD and D1 EoD in that our chronic non-voters continue to be chronic non-voters. If we think this category still has the most Elims ( @Winnie the Pookla, you had this thought. Are you still on it?) then it entails that basically there was no vote on an Elim anyway.

The difficulty here is that I think apathy is pretty much expected from our No Vote tier, with Ash and Alpha showing up once and disappearing, so there's little we can do about it. JNV had RL, and TKN is a chronic non-voter so I wasn't expecting a difference.

Neil pushes Araris and stayed put. Aeo swung between Araris, Cash, and back to Araris again - it's hard to see them teamed, I think, and it suggests a certain lack of investment, given her regrets about giving her teammates early heart attacks in MR66. Coffee's more or less launched a Crusade for Damascus - sorry, Araris, but has more or less reached the destination immediately and is using it to draw conclusions. I kind of want to side-eye Coffee for methodological reasons but the Aman push and the post I picked out both seem like positives here.

My final answer: disappointing, but difficult to call, so I want to pathwalk. I lean by a very slight hair towards V!Araris, on the same basis that a lot of the shifts came late from flipped Villagers or Village credences, but don't really have a strong reason to believe so.

A. V!Araris

Ex hypothesi, Araris is V. I'm fine with V Aman at this stage, I sort of maybe am with JNV but am probably going to rethink this nearly a hundred times. So where are our Elims?

In <Neil, Coffee, Aeo> IMO, with an Aman side - not sure if all are, as I think there are reasons to V!read Coffee and Aeo, so let's ID Neil as one of the suspects and orange them both on a positional basis. (The main defeater for Coffee I think is something in the vicinity of 'insane Elim meta.') 

Unfortunately, IDing the potential teammate in <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN> feels like a crapshoot here. And if I'm correct about my Coffee and Aeo reads, I'm almost required to believe there's a teammate in there. If I think V!Neil, then our entire inactive tier is just Elims+SK, but IDK.

B. E!Araris

Ex hypothesi, Araris is E. The thing is: where are Araris's teammates? Bussing Araris? Inactive? I think Aman asked this question and it's just bloody weird IMO.

I expect at most a maximum of one teammate in <Neil, Coffee, Aeo>, with a strong possibility there's none. Neil's vote stayed for way too long, so I'd italicise him as it started as a pressure vote and then never budged. He had plenty of time to go somewhere else without looking too suspicious. Coffee being Araris delenda est doesn't really work, I'd argue, because Coffee hasn't exactly been shy about pushing Araris. This leaves us with Aeo, which sort of works in light of Aeo hopping between the Cash and the Araris trains, but she ended up on Araris and stayed there, which doesn't feel as right (I'd rather think Aeo has low commitment to either train.)

Aman doesn't feel correct here because he was pushing Araris. I remember from LG94 he has risk tolerance, because what the hell was that D1 even  but continuing to keep the fire on Araris just seems like an odd decision.

Which really, once again, points to the <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN> barrel, which is...really hard to differentiate. Maybe slightly less for TKN, but TKN has been known (cf. QF64) to avoid defending teammates before to stymie vote analysis.

IN SUMMATION/OVERALL CONCLUSIONS:

- Feel V/V is best explanation of D1; this likely points to V!Aeo, recognise I am Devil's Advocating @Amanuensis at this point but that's my function.
- Slightly lean towards V!Araris on D2 for V/V due to where the swings were coming from: E!Araris requires largely inactive partners IMO, with a maximum of one in <Neil, Coffee, Aeo.> V!Araris probably points to some in <Neil, Aeo, Coffee> but I kinda don't think so, so probably most willing to look at Neil in there, with partners in <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN.>
-I feel in either world, there's a commitment to Elims in the <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN> pool. I'm considering going on JNV in light of that as I think it's more productive than an Araris shot. People are free to talk me into something else.

I should note, had I been on and caught up in time for rollover c2, I almost certainly would have voted Cash. Take that as you will and place as much trust in it's verity as you would like. 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Ookla the Bald

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

1. I wanted to C1 him and Aeo threw herself on the cross when I tried so I believe they are paired

2. I just saw him in thread not too long ago so am encouraging him to participate

3. Literally who else is there to vote for?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm back to E!JNV and I think the timing matches better. Not gonna argue with 2 though.

[Amanuensis he/him]

JNV I guess I could see, especially since we are both still alive, but who are his partners between TKN, Ash, Alpha, Neil, and Aeo?