Long Game 98: A Tale of Mists and Metals

[Aeoryi]

7 minutes ago, TheRavenHasLanded said:

revir steals some tools and repairs the fourth wall.

"Perhaps now might be a good time to claim that I am a vanilla villager, with no extra powers granted from the daymists whatsoever, should that help other people with their analysis." Scarlet said.

[TheRavenHasLanded]

revir pockets the tools. "i will not say what, but i am not a vanilla villager."

[Ravenclawjedi42]

“I like chocolate more than vanilla,” Dasenk says sagely. “And I still suspect Revir somewhat, though I am not quite certain. Scarlet and Sirta are both possibilities, as is Violet for being so quick to defend Sirta. Although defend was a stretch. Really, upon further consideration, it seems that her arguments were logical, though her as a Spiked is certainly possible. Karis of the Meat Pies is, I think, the most likely to not be Spiked, though of course it could be him.”

[Sart]

Sirta grimaced. "Gentlemen, I have made a mistake. When I first accused Scarlet Octopus @Aeoryi, I did not recognize them, and took them for a stranger, merely observing rather than participating in this dreadful game. I thought that by accusing them, I could spur them to action, and learn more of their character. That was not necessary. They had already come out of their shell, and were even throwing their lot into the ring. It was a poor choice, and I retracted it as soon as I was able. Considering their continued interest and engagement, I consider them my most trusted Villager."

"However, the same cannot be said of Jorrick. @JNV. I trusted that the old carpenter would do his part, and participate in this discussion. Instead, he has kept to his shop, and said very little. I expected better from him, and am sorely disappointed. I thought that I had no need to provoke him into action, but that was apparently foolish. I grow so frustrated with the fence sitters in the town. It is better to state your case and vote, than it is to sit idly by, and let your voice be swallowed by the crowd.

"With that said, I am still displeased by Revir @TheRavenHasLanded, but he has allayed some of my fears. He has remained consistently vocal, although he has refused to share a definitive opinion. Caution is an attribute well suited to a thief, but it will not win the day in this case. We must act, and we must vote. There is no alternative. Perhaps this is the fear of a newcomer, but I implore him to make an argument. We will not win if we sit idly by."

Sirta's hands shook as he considered his next words carefully. He could use a glass of brandy right about now.

"If my reckoning is correct, I have put myself up for the chopping block. All other suspects have only amassed a single vote, while I have garnered two. I fear death, but have no proof to offer that my intentions are good. I have naught but words, and implore you to listen."

"Karis, @Kasimir your voice carries throughout the entire valley. It is said that your fury has no bounds, and I fear making an enemy out of you. However, you are wrong about me, and I believe you are wrong about Scarlet. I do not think you are a Spiked though. Your thrust to suspect and propel the discussion is exactly what we need. I merely wish that your ire was directed somewhere else.

"Wendawa @Archer, I grow more cold towards you. You say that I have not backed up my actions with a threat? What have I been doing? Yes, I neglected Jorrick, which I continue to regret. However, I propelled Revir into the lead, forcing a response. Is that not the most serious threat one can make? I have been imploring the town to take action. You have accused me and left."

"As for the rest of you, I have not much to say. Dasenk @Ravenclawjedi42, while I commend you putting down a vote, your last words were complete hogwash. If you have an opinion, state it. Those waffles only show a lack of integrity. Violet @Violet, I find your focus on Wendawa slightly baffling, but I will take defenders when I get them. Upon re-examination, perhaps there is something there, but I'd like you to weigh in on the subject at hand."

Sirta exhaled. After that speech, he certainly needed a drink. He just hoped it wouldn't be his last.

[TheRavenHasLanded]

2 minutes ago, Sart said:

Sirta grimaced. "Gentlemen, I have made a mistake. When I first accused Scarlet Octopus @Aeoryi, I did not recognize them, and took them for a stranger, merely observing rather than participating in this dreadful game. I thought that by accusing them, I could spur them to action, and learn more of their character. That was not necessary. They had already come out of their shell, and were even throwing their lot into the ring. It was a poor choice, and I retracted it as soon as I was able. Considering their continued interest and engagement, I consider them my most trusted Villager."

"However, the same cannot be said of Jorrick. @JNV. I trusted that the old carpenter would do his part, and participate in this discussion. Instead, he has kept to his shop, and said very little. I expected better from him, and am sorely disappointed. I thought that I had no need to provoke him into action, but that was apparently foolish. I grow so frustrated with the fence sitters in the town. It is better to state your case and vote, than it is to sit idly by, and let your voice be swallowed by the crowd.

"With that said, I am still displeased by Revir @TheRavenHasLanded, but he has allayed some of my fears. He has remained consistently vocal, although he has refused to share a definitive opinion. Caution is an attribute well suited to a thief, but it will not win the day in this case. We must act, and we must vote. There is no alternative. Perhaps this is the fear of a newcomer, but I implore him to make an argument. We will not win if we sit idly by."

Sirta's hands shook as he considered his next words carefully. He could use a glass of brandy right about now.

"If my reckoning is correct, I have put myself up for the chopping block. All other suspects have only amassed a single vote, while I have garnered two. I fear death, but have no proof to offer that my intentions are good. I have naught but words, and implore you to listen."

"Karis, @Kasimir your voice carries throughout the entire valley. It is said that your fury has no bounds, and I fear making an enemy out of you. However, you are wrong about me, and I believe you are wrong about Scarlet. I do not think you are a Spiked though. Your thrust to suspect and propel the discussion is exactly what we need. I merely wish that your ire was directed somewhere else.

"Wendawa @Archer, I grow more cold towards you. You say that I have not backed up my actions with a threat? What have I been doing? Yes, I neglected Jorrick, which I continue to regret. However, I propelled Revir into the lead, forcing a response. Is that not the most serious threat one can make? I have been imploring the town to take action. You have accused me and left."

"As for the rest of you, I have not much to say. Dasenk @Ravenclawjedi42, while I commend you putting down a vote, your last words were complete hogwash. If you have an opinion, state it. Those waffles only show a lack of integrity. Violet @Violet, I find your focus on Wendawa slightly baffling, but I will take defenders when I get them. Upon re-examination, perhaps there is something there, but I'd like you to weigh in on the subject at hand."

Sirta exhaled. After that speech, he certainly needed a drink. He just hoped it wouldn't be his last.

"i am gladdened by the defense. i am a thief, so you all have no reason to trust me. i will not accuse until i know"

[Sart]

2 minutes ago, TheRavenHasLanded said:

"i am gladdened by the defense. i am a thief, so you all have no reason to trust me. i will not accuse until i know"

"Rust and Ruin, man!" Sirta slammed his glass against the bar. "That is the problem! We will not know! We will be dead and buried before we know! We have only our hunches and instincts. We cannot wait for someone to save us, or for someone to reveal the path forward. There are no certainties in this business. We can only rely on ourselves."

[TheRavenHasLanded]

1 minute ago, Sart said:

"Rust and Ruin, man!" Sirta slammed his glass against the bar. "That is the problem! We will not know! We will be dead and buried before we know! We have only our hunches and instincts. We cannot wait for someone to save us, or for someone to reveal the path forward. There are no certainties in this business. We can only rely on ourselves."

revir just kinda deflates. "true words ya speak, bud. this aint a job. this is life against death"

[Aeoryi]

1 minute ago, Sart said:

"Rust and Ruin, man!" Sirta slammed his glass against the bar. "That is the problem! We will not know! We will be dead and buried before we know! We have only our hunches and instincts. We cannot wait for someone to save us, or for someone to reveal the path forward. There are no certainties in this business. We can only rely on ourselves."

And maybe not even, Scarlet thought.

"Somethings been ticking me off. How will people continue to trust Karis? The spiked must be having a day off with this."

[Kasimir]

Karis made more notes in his ledger, to help him organise his thoughts:

Quote

Revir - Sirta: Judged unlikely S/S. Revir likely to be instructed to parlay exchange into greater distancing. Non-interaction is an odd look.
Scarlet - Sirta: Potential S/S. Scarlet engaging in accusation dilution & undermining tactics to keep Sirta alive.
Wendawa - Violet: Potential S/S. Did not mention these thoughts as much, but felt that Wendawa's retraction on Violet was overquick. 'No u' as a swift, off-the-cuff revenge accusation is fairly common among inexperienced thieves in Kordel. Suspect these Spiked will behave the same way. Interesting that Wendawa did not find this odd and cleared Wendawa for it. Violet in turn continues to accuse Wendawa and refers to a case when there is basically no case: just standard behaviour. Literally, what does Violet expect to see from Wendawa? What behaviour, or response from Wendawa would assuage this? And if the answer is 'nothing', then there's something doubly suspect about this interaction.
Jorrick - Sirta: Judged unlikely S/S. Jorrick clearly behaving in non-Spiked patterns, i.e. as usual self. Disengagement characteristic of Jorrick sans Spikes. Willingness of Sirta to try to defend on Jorrick also indicative.

Thoughts:

-Willing to believe Jorrick not Spiked for now. Jorrick's behaviour relevant here - in Kordel, criminals with Jorrick's personality profile are extremely engaged, and disengaged when law abiding. (Other lives concur ???)

-Go back and forth on Violet. Violet privately referred to 'dooming Sirta' for no reason', which seems to imply Violet has pre-judged Sirta and found him innocent. This, without much of a Sirta read, potentially feels like a slip. Dislike connection to Wendawa - struggling to decide if distancing thought; Violet's profile makes it difficult to ascertain. Will warn all Village in event of death that Violet's public square profile shouldn't be conflated with thought Violet is putting in. (This makes Violet's 'no u' counteraccusation pattern more egregious, in my view - Violet knows better, so camping is not a good look.) Currently negatively inclined but do not believe Violet should be pushed early. These...flashes of other lives. Violet died too early in one. Would not pressure until at least the second day. Do not clear on presumption Violet is new.

-Don't understand the basis of Wendawa's views on Violet, which makes me consider a teaming, or TMI on Wendawa's part. Felt like a strange hop from Wendawa.

-Willing to believe Revir on the level for now. May need to be revised, but Revir's attitude just felt genuine. Just going to call it like it is and admit I can't explain what about it feels pure, just that it does. Agree with Dasenk that Revir should still bear watching, however.

-Am I avoiding Sirta? Yes. Because Sirta is the Long One.

-My main difficulty with Scarlet is that Scarlet is a very clear candidate for being Sirta's partner, both in terms of accusation dilution tactics and in terms of undermining defense. Have considered if Scarlet applying FUD tactics was actually Spiked Scarlet's TMI leaking as Scarlet sought to avoid and potentially spread blame if Sirta was found to be loyal. After sleeping on it, have rejected the thought as it doesn't feel like the correct MO here. Therefore, I don't think there's independent reason to flip Scarlet prior to flipping Sirta - the logic and direction of implication is more from Spiked Sirta to Spiked Scarlet.

-Dasenk feels to have been in a very careful territory so far. Sirta not wrong to call Dasenk out for waffling.

-Ah, Sirta. I don't understand Sirta's reasoning at all - I feel the natural response to mis-accusing Scarlet is to just go, "Oops, my bad" and to make another accusation. I'm not sure why it took this long to come out. I'm also interested in the strength of Sirta's credences on Scarlet, considering Scarlet hasn't been offering any analysis and has not done anything apart from voting, FUD, and one self-defense which was quite frankly irrelevant in light of the existing push on Sirta.

In summation, it was time to put thoughts to action:

1. @Sart - "Sirta," Karis said, loudly. "What, exactly, is the basis of your read on Scarlet, to the point you consider them your most trusted Villager? Exactly what, in your view, has Scarlet done to deserve this read? Moreover, if you felt your accusation of Scarlet was mistaken, why not just admit you made a mistake upfront instead of claiming this was to stir engagement? Next, what do you hope to gain from viciously attacking those who are not present? Do you believe this is somehow going to translate into presence despite the weight of history showing this view doesn't work? Finally, there is a robust case, based on these strange flashbacks some of us have been having, that indicates that lack of engagement is a positive indicator that Jorrick is not Spiked. As many times as people have attempted to parlay these into suggestions Jorrick is changing their behaviour, it doesn't and hasn't borne out. I'm interested if you put any weight on these arguments, or remotely consider them factors that would influence your decision, here and now. My accusation of you is not locked in stone, and I am still willing to shift if I can see some indicator you are not Spiked."

2. @Archer - "Wendawa," Karis said next, turning to Wendawa. CLINK! forgive him, but questions came before the baking meat pies this time. "You state after Violet immediately counter-accused you that it was immediate and a good look. What is your reasoning for this stance?"

3. @Violet - "Violet," Karis ticked off the next name. "You insist you have a case on Wendawa but have not presented it. How do you expect any reaction, anything indicative, or, for that matter, any buy-in on a case you won't present? Moreover, if your suspicion is purely based on the fact it was an immediate, early accusation, then why do you not accuse everyone else who made early accusations? For that matter, how do you propose to get around the problem of everyone sitting down together and claiming there isn't enough information to make an accusation and waiting on each other?"

He had some consulting of the village Archives to do in order to draw out a baseline of Sirta's behaviour.

"A reminder to all," Karis said, with a touch of irony. "If I'm not around for the final stand against the Spiked, keep in mind you should have been doing association analysis. With eight of us in total, being able to rule out pairings to varying degrees will be helpful in solving for the last Spiked. Identifying those unable to give coherent pairings is also crucial. Of course, if there's just one, then we've got a problem. But we always plan for the worst case scenario."

Edited to add:

Karis added, as a note for himself:

Quote

On further reflection, unclear if Wendawa - Violet feels S/S. Potential distancing on Violet's part but Wendawa's quick defense of Violet likely to feel more TMI-y if Wendawa can't put up, rather than Spiked defense of a S!partner. Sleep on it and come back, along with Sirta (!!!)

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Kasimir

[Violet]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Karis made more notes in his ledger, to help him organise his thoughts:

In summation, it was time to put thoughts to action:

1. @Sart - "Sirta," Karis said, loudly. "What, exactly, is the basis of your read on Scarlet, to the point you consider them your most trusted Villager? Exactly what, in your view, has Scarlet done to deserve this read? Moreover, if you felt your accusation of Scarlet was mistaken, why not just admit you made a mistake upfront instead of claiming this was to stir engagement? Next, what do you hope to gain from viciously attacking those who are not present? Do you believe this is somehow going to translate into presence despite the weight of history showing this view doesn't work? Finally, there is a robust case, based on these strange flashbacks some of us have been having, that indicates that lack of engagement is a positive indicator that Jorrick is not Spiked. As many times as people have attempted to parlay these into suggestions Jorrick is changing their behaviour, it doesn't and hasn't borne out. I'm interested if you put any weight on these arguments, or remotely consider them factors that would influence your decision, here and now. My accusation of you is not locked in stone, and I am still willing to shift if I can see some indicator you are not Spiked."

2. @Archer - "Wendawa," Karis said next, turning to Wendawa. CLINK! forgive him, but questions came before the baking meat pies this time. "You state after Violet immediately counter-accused you that it was immediate and a good look. What is your reasoning for this stance?"

3. @Violet - "Violet," Karis ticked off the next name. "You insist you have a case on Wendawa but have not presented it. How do you expect any reaction, anything indicative, or, for that matter, any buy-in on a case you won't present? Moreover, if your suspicion is purely based on the fact it was an immediate, early accusation, then why do you not accuse everyone else who made early accusations? For that matter, how do you propose to get around the problem of everyone sitting down together and claiming there isn't enough information to make an accusation and waiting on each other?"

He had some consulting of the village Archives to do in order to draw out a baseline of Sirta's behaviour.

"A reminder to all," Karis said, with a touch of irony. "If I'm not around for the final stand against the Spiked, keep in mind you should have been doing association analysis. With eight of us in total, being able to rule out pairings to varying degrees will be helpful in solving for the last Spiked. Identifying those unable to give coherent pairings is also crucial. Of course, if there's just one, then we've got a problem. But we always plan for the worst case scenario."

Edited to add:

Karis added, as a note for himself:

 

"So basically, what you're saying, is that anyone who defends or accuses Sirta is immediately S/S with them? A strange philosophy, maybe to go with your other ones, but I think you overlook the possibility of a Spiked not helping the other, since as you so kindly put it, the day isn't even over yet. That's not to say that one point undermines your entire list, but is worthy to consider. In fact, I would say it is very detrimental to those innocent who defend Sirta out of the goodness of their heart, as it gives the spiked a good target to get the village to execute, buying them time to do who knows what, however I would only suspect that to be the case if there were interlocking indicators from a multitude of people, showing clever work behind the scenes.

Secondly, have you considered the Tineye messages that might be flying around between players? I personally would not mention their contents explicitly here, nor with a person I do not trust, but they would still hold true to my analysis. Perhaps another thing you overlooked.

On another side note, my total SE playing time (a boardgame popular as of late) is little over 48 hours, and while I may have offered to fill in for a malaise player, that does not mean I completely followed the game, nor were knowledgeable gained experience from it, similar to how a poet wouldn't have experience so much as a worldbringer"

As for the question.... "I don't expect everyone to take the same path as me, and to be honest, if they did deliberately, I'd be concerned. As for suspects, I wouldn't trust anyone, but my vote will stay on Wendawa, as I feel changing it would be both hypocritical of myself and would also be what the spiked want."

Violet turned to address one last issue. "Doom is a word I used. Perhaps, in a language where your thoughts are clouded by your words and pretending, the true meaning gets lost along the way in favor for a more amiable word, traded off for expression."

[Aeoryi]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Karis made more notes in his ledger, to help him organise his thoughts:

In summation, it was time to put thoughts to action:

1. @Sart - "Sirta," Karis said, loudly. "What, exactly, is the basis of your read on Scarlet, to the point you consider them your most trusted Villager? Exactly what, in your view, has Scarlet done to deserve this read? Moreover, if you felt your accusation of Scarlet was mistaken, why not just admit you made a mistake upfront instead of claiming this was to stir engagement? Next, what do you hope to gain from viciously attacking those who are not present? Do you believe this is somehow going to translate into presence despite the weight of history showing this view doesn't work? Finally, there is a robust case, based on these strange flashbacks some of us have been having, that indicates that lack of engagement is a positive indicator that Jorrick is not Spiked. As many times as people have attempted to parlay these into suggestions Jorrick is changing their behaviour, it doesn't and hasn't borne out. I'm interested if you put any weight on these arguments, or remotely consider them factors that would influence your decision, here and now. My accusation of you is not locked in stone, and I am still willing to shift if I can see some indicator you are not Spiked."

2. @Archer - "Wendawa," Karis said next, turning to Wendawa. CLINK! forgive him, but questions came before the baking meat pies this time. "You state after Violet immediately counter-accused you that it was immediate and a good look. What is your reasoning for this stance?"

3. @Violet - "Violet," Karis ticked off the next name. "You insist you have a case on Wendawa but have not presented it. How do you expect any reaction, anything indicative, or, for that matter, any buy-in on a case you won't present? Moreover, if your suspicion is purely based on the fact it was an immediate, early accusation, then why do you not accuse everyone else who made early accusations? For that matter, how do you propose to get around the problem of everyone sitting down together and claiming there isn't enough information to make an accusation and waiting on each other?"

He had some consulting of the village Archives to do in order to draw out a baseline of Sirta's behaviour.

"A reminder to all," Karis said, with a touch of irony. "If I'm not around for the final stand against the Spiked, keep in mind you should have been doing association analysis. With eight of us in total, being able to rule out pairings to varying degrees will be helpful in solving for the last Spiked. Identifying those unable to give coherent pairings is also crucial. Of course, if there's just one, then we've got a problem. But we always plan for the worst case scenario."

Edited to add:

Karis added, as a note for himself:

 

You know what, Scarlet Octopus thought, I don't care if I die..

"In what world does Sirta's actions make sense if he were to have one of those strange roles that are of the mist? Would it make sense? I'm just trying to make sure we haven't forgotten anything.c

9 minutes ago, Violet said:

"So basically, what you're saying, is that anyone who defends or accuses Sirta is immediately S/S with them? A strange philosophy, maybe to go with your other ones, but I think you overlook the possibility of a Spiked not helping the other, since as you so kindly put it, the day isn't even over yet. That's not to say that one point undermines your entire list, but is worthy to consider. In fact, I would say it is very detrimental to those innocent who defend Sirta out of the goodness of their heart, as it gives the spiked a good target to get the village to execute, buying them time to do who knows what, however I would only suspect that to be the case if there were interlocking indicators from a multitude of people, showing clever work behind the scenes.

Secondly, have you considered the Tineye messages that might be flying around between players? I personally would not mention their contents explicitly here, nor with a person I do not trust, but they would still hold true to my analysis. Perhaps another thing you overlooked.

On another side note, my total SE playing time (a boardgame popular as of late) is little over 48 hours, and while I may have offered to fill in for a malaise player, that does not mean I completely followed the game, nor were knowledgeable gained experience from it, similar to how a poet wouldn't have experience so much as a worldbringer"

As for the question.... "I don't expect everyone to take the same path as me, and to be honest, if they did deliberately, I'd be concerned. As for suspects, I wouldn't trust anyone, but my vote will stay on Wendawa, as I feel changing it would be both hypocritical of myself and would also be what the spiked want."

Violet turned to address one last issue. "Doom is a word I used. Perhaps, in a language where your thoughts are clouded by your words and pretending, the true meaning gets lost along the way in favor for a more amiable word, traded off for expression."

"Sounds like exactly something that a spiked would say," Scarlet muttered.

 

 

Oh pookie I have a line now k it's  on my paper

---

[TheRavenHasLanded]

revir stands quietly and paces, thinking. 

He had to make plan. maybe, if he stole some information. he wonders, if maybe, he could steal people's files, and check to see where theyve been.

[Archer]

Wendawa cleared his throat. The meat pie left one’s throat surprisingly dry.

“There once was a man who was born in a tree. He grew up in the tree, full of bananas. All his life, he looked down on the people below. They didn’t speak sense, he belonged in the tree!”

"Hi. Why are you accusing me so quickly? Violent and Violet are very different, just so you know. Has The Deepness gotten into your mind so quickly? Wendawa?"

“You could trust the man in the tree. He spoke his truth because he grew up untouchable.” Wendawa trusted a self-righteous person. Those who knew the least were often the least subtle. Violet seemed like they didn’t have hidden knowledge.

"I will still keep my vote on Wendawa, who's sudden dismissal of my case is not to be forgotten."

Up until this point, Wendawa still liked what they were saying. It sounded like someone basing their suspicions on the fact that he was wrong. ‘No you’ language was either lazy play or pure self-righteousness, and in a newcomer to the town, Wendawa was inclined to believe it was the latter and move on to other suspects.

Violet going on to individually rebuttal points showed a greater agenda than was expected, but it was part of a consistent tone, so Wendawa didn’t mind it. They seemed willing to throw bananas at everything and anything from atop their tree.

The Soothsayer stopped to listen to another person speak. "However, the same cannot be said of Jorrick. I trusted that the old carpenter would do his part, and participate in this discussion. Instead, he has kept to his shop, and said very little. I expected better from him, and am sorely disappointed. I thought that I had no need to provoke him into action, but that was apparently foolish. I grow so frustrated with the fence sitters in the town. It is better to state your case and vote, than it is to sit idly by, and let your voice be swallowed by the crowd.”

This came after Wendawa had called them out for not voting for Jorrick. Wendawa had privately thought that perhaps they did not want to vote for them because in other recent disputes, they had gone after Jorrick early. That was a sensible reason to break their pattern. But now they had returned to it, as if trying to mimic their previous actions without having the same intentionality behind them. “It would have been more consistent to just stick to voting Revir until they said something meaningful.” The vote did dampen his theory of Jorrick and Sirta being co-conspirators though, which was based on the idea that they had broken their pattern to avoid a vote on a fellow Spiked.

[TheRavenHasLanded]

revir thinks about thieving ideas: you choose the target, you pick a day, then execute. but you also need to mislead the man you steal from. they cant know. and for the record, the crowbar is only for the homebrewed beer.

[Archer]

2 minutes ago, TheRavenHasLanded said:

revir thinks about thieving ideas: you choose the target, you pick a day, then execute. but you also need to mislead the man you steal from. they cant know. and for the record, the crowbar is only for the homebrewed beer.

"Hey Revir, I'll let you steal my shoes if you vote for Sirta with me."

[TheRavenHasLanded]

Just now, Archer said:

"Hey Revir, I'll let you steal my shoes if you vote for Sirta with me."

"WHAT? there's no fun in that! they have to not know. also, here are the last 20 pairs of shoes i stole from you."

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Violet said:

"So basically, what you're saying, is that anyone who defends or accuses Sirta is immediately S/S with them? A strange philosophy, maybe to go with your other ones, but I think you overlook the possibility of a Spiked not helping the other, since as you so kindly put it, the day isn't even over yet. That's not to say that one point undermines your entire list, but is worthy to consider. In fact, I would say it is very detrimental to those innocent who defend Sirta out of the goodness of their heart, as it gives the spiked a good target to get the village to execute, buying them time to do who knows what, however I would only suspect that to be the case if there were interlocking indicators from a multitude of people, showing clever work behind the scenes.

Karis looked right at Violet. "What I am saying, to be very blunt, is you are either Spiked, or your current attitude is going to cost Copper's Bend. And at this point, I'm half-minded to simply have myself executed so I can sit back and laugh at all of you and watch since you all feel so determined that you are correct and know the path out of this mess. Then it won't be on my hands and since you all are so cock-sure you are remotely good at this, you can handle this without my speaking up, or helping. And if the Spiked overtake us all, oh, oops. I can live with that. Or die with that, I suppose.

I'm going to explain this one last time, assuming you aren't misconstruing out of malice. I am going to refuse to further engage for my own sanity, and my own time, because if you aren't going to respect my time, I will respect my own time and go back to selling meat pies.

The reason I say you are either Spiked or a fool or actively malicious is that you don't seem to understand how connectives work. Connection analysis proposes that the interaction between two players indicates a potential connection between them. They are conditional, or if-then statements. The whole point of doing connectives now is because you want to have potential connections in your mind by the time things are late.

If you believe we are automagically going to find all the Spiked by tomorrow and it'll be over, that's on you. A good Villager's planning has to include more time.

If you don't think this one point undermines my entire list, then why do you question the point of the entire list? You can't have it both ways: you can think connection analysis isn't useful, or you can think it is. You can bemoan to me that the day is so apparently short that you are concerned I will doom Sirta (apparently, automagically knowing he is Village despite claiming not to have a specific stance on him), and yet at the same time, it is so apparently long the Spiked can do whatever they want, including distance.

Certainly, we can't rule out the fact the Spiked are in fact distancing and leaving Sirta, if he is Spiked, to hang. The point is that's not intuitive Spiked behaviour. You start with the more probable conclusion and when it becomes less likely, for reasons such as having independently good reason to deem someone in a potential pairing with, for example again, Sirta, to be Village. This indicates we should look at the rest of the potential S/S pairings. This then helps us narrow down our suspect pool. Seeking to widen it by immediately assuming that there was no action at all or that we are excluding all relevant possibilities denies the Village the chance to make progress here.

It is actively Spiked behaviour, or anti-Village at the very least, to insist we keep all possibilities open because not all outcomes are equipossible. Stating the most likely set of possibilities doesn't indicate that every other possibility is impossible: it just entails we have priorities.

So how is it detrimental to sincere defenses of Sirta? In what world do you simply run off a first Day connectives list and immediately flip blindly without taking in new information? In what world do you think that is good investigative practice? If not, why are you so hasty to attribute it to others? In any world where a Village blindly follows any execution order from the first Day, it is a Village that deserves to be overrun by the Deepness and drowned. It's a level of stupidity I can't fathom, beyond rejecting the BEST MEAT PIES THIS SIDE OF THE SELLEN!"

Karis drew in a deep breath. He was done.

4 hours ago, Violet said:

Secondly, have you considered the Tineye messages that might be flying around between players? I personally would not mention their contents explicitly here, nor with a person I do not trust, but they would still hold true to my analysis. Perhaps another thing you overlooked.

"This is one of the most ridiculous things I've heard, to be honest. "I don't trust you therefore I tell you about my case against Wendawa which is purely in Tineye messages." Oh Jahidi! The Evil Spiked will know! They will know and save Wendawa! I cannot remotely speak of a case against Wendawa because Wendawa is so very Spiked that a case against Wendawa is itself something that will destroy everyone!

Confidential information like personal powers is one things. Views and cases is another. I just cannot even."

4 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

"In what world does Sirta's actions make sense if he were to have one of those strange roles that are of the mist? Would it make sense? I'm just trying to make sure we haven't forgotten anything.c

4 hours ago, Violet said:

"Listen, Scarlet," Karis said. "If you can give me a positive case for Sirta being a Villager beyond "this makes no sense" since you legitimately think my doing the most analysis in this Jahidi-forsaken thread makes sense for a Spiked, which pretty much fails your threshold too, I'm willing to listen and to go with it."

"But honestly, I'm done here. I cannot keep explaining investigative basics. You all do what you want. I'll unaccuse Sirta since you all believe you have the right answers, so you certainly don't need me on board. I'm going to head back to Kordel and sell meat pies. CLINK's mercy, I don't know what's in the water here."

Edited November 21, 2023 by Kasimir

[TheRavenHasLanded]

On 11/20/2023 at 9:41 AM, Kasimir said:

To put this terribly plainly, Karis scribbled it all down:

He called bull fertiliser.

Edited to add:

Karis didn't think this needed explicit pointing out as another standard of evidence defense.

revir keeps a joke to himself.

[Kasimir]

"Oh yes," Karis said. He'd forgotten. A final touch. "Since you all believe that Sirta is innocent, and I'm washing my hands off this, I'll do you the same favour you've been demanding: I'll accuse Wendawa. I'll be interested in what manner of excuses will appear if Wendawa is in fact a Villager. I'll happy to accuse Karis as well. Good luck!"

[TheRavenHasLanded]

"you accuse yourself?"

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, TheRavenHasLanded said:

"you accuse yourself?"

"Sure, why not?" Karis yawned. "Karis, let's go. You all can solve this by yourselves and I'm certainly done with carrying more than my share of the weight around here and willing to be pleasantly surprised by you all solving this. Jahidi teaches us that hope springs eternal with the harvest, even if it's been failing around here lately."

[TheRavenHasLanded]

revir shakes his head. "you are very, very strange."

[Aeoryi]

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Karis looked right at Violet. "What I am saying, to be very blunt, is you are either Spiked, or your current attitude is going to cost Copper's Bend. And at this point, I'm half-minded to simply have myself executed so I can sit back and laugh at all of you and watch since you all feel so determined that you are correct and know the path out of this mess. Then it won't be on my hands and since you all are so cock-sure you are remotely good at this, you can handle this without my speaking up, or helping. And if the Spiked overtake us all, oh, oops. I can live with that. Or die with that, I suppose.

I'm going to explain this one last time, assuming you aren't misconstruing out of malice. I am going to refuse to further engage for my own sanity, and my own time, because if you aren't going to respect my time, I will respect my own time and go back to selling meat pies.

The reason I say you are either Spiked or a fool or actively malicious is that you don't seem to understand how connectives work. Connection analysis proposes that the interaction between two players indicates a potential connection between them. They are conditional, or if-then statements. The whole point of doing connectives now is because you want to have potential connections in your mind by the time things are late.

If you believe we are automagically going to find all the Spiked by tomorrow and it'll be over, that's on you. A good Villager's planning has to include more time.

If you don't think this one point undermines my entire list, then why do you question the point of the entire list? You can't have it both ways: you can think connection analysis isn't useful, or you can think it is. You can bemoan to me that the day is so apparently short that you are concerned I will doom Sirta (apparently, automagically knowing he is Village despite claiming not to have a specific stance on him), and yet at the same time, it is so apparently long the Spiked can do whatever they want, including distance.

Certainly, we can't rule out the fact the Spiked are in fact distancing and leaving Sirta, if he is Spiked, to hang. The point is that's not intuitive Spiked behaviour. You start with the more probable conclusion and when it becomes less likely, for reasons such as having independently good reason to deem someone in a potential pairing with, for example again, Sirta, to be Village. This indicates we should look at the rest of the potential S/S pairings. This then helps us narrow down our suspect pool. Seeking to widen it by immediately assuming that there was no action at all or that we are excluding all relevant possibilities denies the Village the chance to make progress here.

It is actively Spiked behaviour, or anti-Village at the very least, to insist we keep all possibilities open because not all outcomes are equipossible. Stating the most likely set of possibilities doesn't indicate that every other possibility is impossible: it just entails we have priorities.

So how is it detrimental to sincere defenses of Sirta? In what world do you simply run off a first Day connectives list and immediately flip blindly without taking in new information? In what world do you think that is good investigative practice? If not, why are you so hasty to attribute it to others? In any world where a Village blindly follows any execution order from the first Day, it is a Village that deserves to be overrun by the Deepness and drowned. It's a level of stupidity I can't fathom, beyond rejecting the BEST MEAT PIES THIS SIDE OF THE SELLEN!"

Karis drew in a deep breath. He was done.

"This is one of the most ridiculous things I've heard, to be honest. "I don't trust you therefore I tell you about my case against Wendawa which is purely in Tineye messages." Oh Jahidi! The Evil Spiked will know! They will know and save Wendawa! I cannot remotely speak of a case against Wendawa because Wendawa is so very Spiked that a case against Wendawa is itself something that will destroy everyone!

Confidential information like personal powers is one things. Views and cases is another. I just cannot even."

"Listen, Scarlet," Karis said. "If you can give me a positive case for Sirta being a Villager beyond "this makes no sense" since you legitimately think my doing the most analysis in this Jahidi-forsaken thread makes sense for a Spiked, which pretty much fails your threshold too, I'm willing to listen and to go with it."

"But honestly, I'm done here. I cannot keep explaining investigative basics. You all do what you want. I'll unaccuse Sirta since you all believe you have the right answers, so you certainly don't need me on board. I'm going to head back to Kordel and sell meat pies. CLINK's mercy, I don't know what's in the water here."

I'm going to take a break before I respond to this. Remember, it's just a game. It's not meant to make you feel frustrated. 

[Kasimir]

45 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I'm going to take a break before I respond to this. Remember, it's just a game. It's not meant to make you feel frustrated. 

"There's only so much consistent bad faith construals and opportunistic hypocrisy one will tolerate from others, before it becomes clear it is either actively malicious, or not worth spending one's time on," Karis said, quietly. "As you say, we love Copper's Bend. This also entails that when others are actively ensuring that defending Copper's Bend is unpleasant, stepping back and letting them sink or swim is permissible. In fact, in the case of active hypocrisy, skewering them on their own logic is the best, since they won't accept it is hypocrisy unless they are hoist on their own petard and discover they dislike the cut of that cloth.

That as it may be, it was not directed at you - the only reason I asked for a positive case from you was to gain your perspective by making you commit to a more extensive Sirta read, and to see what that case establishes about you. In other words, to help me read you.

I obviously have my own Sirta views, and as it stands, I actually think Dasenk is the more fruitful target this time, though I don't care enough to pursue this.

There are a few considerations that merit pulling the brakes on any accusations of Sirta at this point in time. Dasenk's contentment with that perch on Revir, despite their insistence a you-or-Sirta push makes sense, and acceptance of Revir's newness indicates a comfort with this situation that I'd probably want to push against. But I've also committed to not caring, sink or swim. You all will do what you want to. I'm simply not going to spend more time pushing against bad faith."

[JNV]

Jorrick returned to the hustle and bustle of the main area of the town square. It seemed that there were accusations flying, but they didn't have a good understanding about who was in the lead. They made a list to better capture the state of things.

Quote

Wendawa: Violet
Sirta: Wendawa
Karis: Karis
Jorrick: Sirta

Well, that was unfortunate. They were quickly reaching the twilight of the day, and there was no consensus to be found. Jorrick stepped forward. "I see that there are a great many opinions and thoughts around Sirta, both accusations and strange defenses. However, I find my eye drawn towards someone who has stood on the sidelines. Dasenk @Ravenclawjedi42, this remark in particular gives me pause."

Quote

“I like chocolate more than vanilla,” Dasenk says sagely. “And I still suspect Revir somewhat, though I am not quite certain. Scarlet and Sirta are both possibilities, as is Violet for being so quick to defend Sirta. Although defend was a stretch. Really, upon further consideration, it seems that her arguments were logical, though her as a Spiked is certainly possible. Karis of the Meat Pies is, I think, the most likely to not be Spiked, though of course it could be him.”

"You persist on Revir, a mere thief who has said little and someone who you yourself are uncertain about, despite acknowledging suspicion of Scarlet, Sirta, and Violet, some of the main points of contention. You strive for agreeability, not even stating certainty about a trust, while avoiding making any opinions that could be controversial. Furthermore, Revir is new in town, and courtesy demands that we give them a day to find their footing before accusing them of any crimes, even murder."

Jorrick pulled something out of his pocket. "Also, tensions seem to be high. Everyone, look at this wooden quokka and let it take all of your anger away."

Spoiler