Ashbringer he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) *Shamelessly doing last minute RP for bonuses* Bailis suddenly stood up and walked out the door. She'd given her vote, and if they needed her again they'd know where to find her. Didn't seem like she needed to do more than that. Besides, she hadn't spoken to her spren in a time. "Do you know who you can trust?" she whispered to the air. 'No. Many think they're doing what's right. Many are right. These are different' her spren replied in that small voice. Everything's different, replied the louder one. Bailis didn't think that her spren could hear it. But she had no way of knowing until they tried to communicate. Regardless, it heard her spren, and that gave some credence to its tempting words. But she didn't know if it was Odium or something worse, and so she must avoid it. That was the agreement. That was the need to protect Roshar. She would protect Roshar. Edit: welp Edited November 7, 2023 by Ashbringer
Aeoryi she/her Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: All good. Aman Aeoryi Because I can Waiiitttt sorrrrrrryyyyy fiffftttthhhh *Gets smited by the everstorm* Edited November 7, 2023 by Aeoryi
Fifth Scholar he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Author Posted November 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Aeoryi said: Aeoryi Because I can Waiiitttt sorrrrrrryyyyy fiffftttthhhh 6
Fifth Scholar he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Author Posted November 7, 2023 CYCLE TWO: WÄRE DIESER KNIGHT EIN ÜBELTÄTER It was late evening by the time Callar returned to the rest of the squad, tired, dishevelled. His spren, Madilan, had insisted on time for his seclusion, to be able to practise his own Surges and powers for a while, and let the rest of the Radiants have some discussion without the watchful eye of their leader glaring down. What Callar found, however, suggested that his eye would perhaps be needed. Knights were scattered about the field, muttering in small groups, and a heated debate was beginning to rage in the centre. He sighed, finding Phil Swift and Shay once again in the thick of it. Yet it did not seem to concern them especially closely. “That man!” Swift pointed at Gen-ku dramatically. “He wasn’t here with us on the field when you all summoned us, except for a moment. And now he slinks back here, and he looks and sounds completely different. Where could he have been off to? Shadesmar, maybe, or some other place where these traitors are convening?” A low chorus of voices muttered a vague assent. Gen-ku himself shrugged, seeming not to care to refute the accusation. Another group looked darkly at Shay, who stood by, but said little more. TO BE CONTINUED (Aradon deserves a beautiful and poetic death but it's now 2 hours past and I'm dead tired and you all need results too >>) Amanuensis was court-martialed and removed! He was a Loyal Knight Radiant Skybreaker of the First Ideal. Vote Count (OFFICIAL (I think -_-)): Amanuensis (6): Amanuensis, Kasimir, Ravenclawjedi42, Psiti?tēebe?t, Archer, JNV Psiti?tēebe?t (2): Aeoryi, Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity JNV (1): Matrim’s Dice Matrim’s Dice (1): Araris Valerian Araris Valerian (Aradon) was killed by traitors! He was a Loyal Knight Radiant Lightweaver of the First Ideal. Stoneward messages: Quote The only verdict is vengeance; a vendetta, held as a votive, not in vain, for the value and veracity of such shall one day vindicate the vigilant and the virtuous. Cycle Two has begun! It will end in about 46 hours, on Wednesday 8 November at 9:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST). |TJ| is on warning for inactivity. If he does not post this cycle, he will be smitten by the Everstorm or be replaced by a pinch-hitter. There is an Exe today. Please remember semi-open PM rules. I have a lot of rule clarifications to post, probably, and maybe a few to catch up on. Given the demands of my work schedule, I am not reading private PMs until I have the time to do so, so PMing me directly with rules questions or tagging me in-thread is your best avenue for a speedy response. I will also be checking RP Ideal progress tomorrow night, most likely, but it’s not an immediate concern because none of you can level up from it till next cycle anyway Result PMs should be out. If you’ve ever co-GMed with me, I am infinitely grateful for your labours and I’m sorry if I didn't thank you enough at the time I forgot how much harder it is alone… Player List: Spoiler 1. Aeoryi as Saffron Iguana 2. Amanuensis/Experience as Gen-ku Skybreaker 3. Ravenclawjedi42 as Death-daughter-Time 4. |TJ| as Galatar 5. Ashbringer as Bailis 6. Matrim’s Dice as Shay 7. Archer as Phil Swift 8. Kasimir as Keleran 9. STINK as TBD 10. Araris Valerian as Aradon Lightweaver 11. JNV 12. Psiti?tēebe?t 13. Devotary of Spontaneity as Taliat/Orotha and Iolea Good luck! 4
Kasimir he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum Aman'vod. Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum Araris'vod. Edited to add: Thoughts - Araris being hit feels like a low profile shot without hitting a newer player. I can't rule out that my suggestion of PM shenanigans painted a target on Araris's back though, sigh. Aman wanted to RB JNV before he went out. I'm not sure if he stuck with JNV. If so, this just suggests Aman didn't hit the DK. Araris targeted me. I don't know who he hit with the hoover. Edited November 7, 2023 by Kasimir
Archer he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 Darn. I'll stay by solving the secret message in the Stoneward message. If you connect the bolded letters or spells vvvvvvvvv. Mysterious. I got rid of Devo's vote. Hmu if you want me to target you this round to hit an ideal trigger. There's two roles that want to be targeted iirc We really should have worked the 2nd place thing out better but I think those EOD votes should be telling of something. I'll reiterate my support for 2nding Aeoryi, they look village from the EOD changes of mind. Now I can actually go to bed Ashbringer
|TJ| he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 Guys my bad my bad, I thought I had a whole day more lol. I shall catch up. 9 pages jeez. But I shall. Hopefully. Appreciate any tldrs!
Aeoryi she/her Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Archer said: Darn. I'll stay by solving the secret message in the Stoneward message. If you connect the bolded letters or spells vvvvvvvvv. Mysterious. I got rid of Devo's vote. Hmu if you want me to target you this round to hit an ideal trigger. There's two roles that want to be targeted iirc We really should have worked the 2nd place thing out better but I think those EOD votes should be telling of something. I'll reiterate my support for 2nding Aeoryi, they look village from the EOD changes of mind. Now I can actually go to bed Ashbringer Okay. Someone's gotta analyze the EoD, so I will do that overnight. But what the smited by the everstorm happened Ravenclawjedi42 Curious to know bout your read on wit Good night!
Kasimir he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 Analysis after actual nap. For the moment, Wit 14 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said: If you’ve ever co-GMed with me, I am infinitely grateful for your labours and I’m sorry if I didn't thank you enough at the time I forgot how much harder it is alone… You're welcome, ilu too 1 minute ago, |TJ| said: Guys my bad my bad, I thought I had a whole day more lol. Get in here!
Mat he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 I don’t actually mind Wit getting the ideal. But I do want to know why he’s listed the way he is :P. In retrospect v!Aman should have been more obvious due to the lack of self pres and the thread-wide consensus regarding his slot but panic does wild things. Probably most looking sideways at Kas, interestingly, as it sounds like you knew he was a Skybreaker and didn’t say anything? I get distroguessing = bad but if you knew his role and what he planned to do with it that seems like… relevant information. I missed that Raven voted Aman. That’s… weird.
Guest Ψιτιsτηε Βεsτ Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, Aeoryi said: @Archer, is that your vote manip? What is that?
Kasimir he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: In retrospect v!Aman should have been more obvious due to the lack of self pres and the thread-wide consensus regarding his slot but panic does wild things. Probably most looking sideways at Kas, interestingly, as it sounds like you knew he was a Skybreaker and didn’t say anything? I get distroguessing = bad but if you knew his role and what he planned to do with it that seems like… relevant information. Ngl dude, I was jumping between PMs trying to talk Aman off committing in-game seppuku and also dealing with the thread on half an hour's sleep, maybe a bit more. It legit did not come to mind, and Aman's ultimatum was more or less "I don't want a repeat of the cycle by going into the next exe as the main wagon as I don't believe anyone will re-eval on me and I'd rather self-vote than lose my abilities." I think I just kind of assumed Aman would claim if he wanted to, as I default don't like outing players, but really I just wasn't thinking as I was trying to work out what the best way forward was that preferably kept Aman alive as I never wanted him C1ed. Edited to add: 13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I don’t actually mind Wit getting the ideal. But I do want to know why he’s listed the way he is :P. Spelt phoenetically in Greek. Edited to add 2: Sorry not phoenetics. Meant the letters are spelt out, e.g. the first letter is Psi, and so on. Edited November 7, 2023 by Kasimir
Guest Ψιτιsτηε Βεsτ Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said: What is that? Also what is with the v! Before names? Sorry, just trying to learn the specific ways of saying stuff in these.
Kasimir he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 @Matrim's Dice I'm interested in why you say that was relevant though - I was focusing on how strongly I felt Aman was V (is it enough for me to be content with forcing a no-exe, especially given Aman's feelings/projections about the likely outcomes?) and also trying to talk Aman off the seppuku while also acknowledging he wasn't wrong to...in that I think we all know Aman's playhistory makes him sensitive to how people have a higher threshold for belief with regard to him. And I was also asking myself whether I was just doing the same thing again by questioning Aman at that point. I'd think you'd be especially sympathetic to that given you yourself were wondering why you kept getting wagoned and why people just interpret whatever you say about it as more reason for E!Mat. To me, E!Skybreaker was definitely possible, without full sight of the distro. The Skybreaker/role part was less important to me than the V/not-V part.
JNV Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 53 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said: Amanuensis (6): Amanuensis, Kasimir, Ravenclawjedi42, Psiti?tēebe?t, Archer, JNV Psiti?tēebe?t (2): Aeoryi, Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity JNV (1): Matrim’s Dice Matrim’s Dice (1): Araris Valerian Hi I was voting Archer as far as Im aware anyway good night Ill engage with all this tomorrow I just wanted to get that correction out there bye
Mat he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 47 minutes ago, Kasimir said: I think I just kind of assumed Aman would claim if he wanted to, as I default don't like outing players, but really I just wasn't thinking as I was trying to work out what the best way forward was that preferably kept Aman alive as I never wanted him C1ed. Okay that’s fair. For all my comments about the chaos of EoD and how my own brain short circuited I forgot that it was chaotic and made it hard to think :P. (And thanks for explaining the Wit thing. Languages are cool.) 41 minutes ago, Kasimir said: @Matrim's Dice I'm interested in why you say that was relevant though - I was focusing on how strongly I felt Aman was V (is it enough for me to be content with forcing a no-exe, especially given Aman's feelings/projections about the likely outcomes?) and also trying to talk Aman off the seppuku while also acknowledging he wasn't wrong to...in that I think we all know Aman's playhistory makes him sensitive to how people have a higher threshold for belief with regard to him. And I was also asking myself whether I was just doing the same thing again by questioning Aman at that point. I'd think you'd be especially sympathetic to that given you yourself were wondering why you kept getting wagoned and why people just interpret whatever you say about it as more reason for E!Mat. To me, E!Skybreaker was definitely possible, without full sight of the distro. The Skybreaker/role part was less important to me than the V/not-V part. Relevant in a general sense more than anything else. I think that claiming a decently powerful role (as a Skybreaker is) at EoD is usually a good idea, as it causes players to think about what they’re doing a bit more. It’s one thing to kill PHer Aman, and another to kill Skybreaker Aman. At least to me. I’m pretty sure if he had claimed that I would have believed him, as it’s a believable claim, so the paranoiding wouldn’t be an issue there. A Skybreaker is worth a lot and an e!Skybreaker that’s outed isn’t terrible as accountability becomes an issue for the elims. I dunno what I would have done with the information but EoD me would have liked it. But that’s just my opinion.
Ashbringer he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 2 hours ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said: What is that? Because I don't think anyone's answered these - Archer claimed Windrunner, with the ability to cancel a player's vote. 2 hours ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said: Also what is with the v! Before names? Sorry, just trying to learn the specific ways of saying stuff in these. V! (and E!) are indicators for Village (the good guys) and Elim/Eliminator (the bad but cool guys). Useful for tracking things. I.e. if someone thought Aman and Raven were Elim together (or thought that if one was Elim, the other would be), you could say Aman and Raven are E-E, or that E!Aman leads to E!Raven. Or as a more applicable example, Aman flipped Village, so you can discount E!Aman possibilities. For future reference - I have lab 4/7 days of the week until about 1 hour before rollover, which is why I was panickedly trying to figure things out in that hour before. So... what just happened?
Kasimir he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) 7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: A Skybreaker is worth a lot and an e!Skybreaker that’s outed isn’t terrible as accountability becomes an issue for the elims. I dunno what I would have done with the information but EoD me would have liked it. But that’s just my opinion. Fair. I think one reason I overlooked it was - it's role madness, and so many roles are pretty cracked. But yeah, mostly just short of mental bandwidth in the middle of all the chaos, and kind of figured Aman would handle it. Probably could take his refusal to claim and preference for death as a V!sign, but it's easier to think when not under time pressure to make a judgement call and to get an exe placement/CW (for secondary) everyone can live with, ignoring negative modifiers like insomnia-caused sleep deprivation. I think no one really expected (I certainly didn't) - even despite the earlier wrangling - just how relevant the secondary exe placing discussion would suddenly become, e.g. CWing on Wit wasn't okay because Aman having an Ideal wasn't okay either. 5 hours ago, Ashbringer said: For future reference - I have lab 4/7 days of the week until about 1 hour before rollover, which is why I was panickedly trying to figure things out in that hour before. So... what just happened? I ask myself that too >> Going to do some preliminary analysis as best as I can. I don't have the time to do the entire thread as I have things due, so I'm going to take Aman's arrival and the first ever VC (!) as a starting point. I think this is fair as things only degenerated into chaos beyond that juncture. I'm sort of going to do this a bit backwards as I'm just dumping raw analysis in the thread instead of my GM PM, so I might make some mistakes as I go along, and then correct them towards the end. Overall Impressions: -Chaotic EoD. General feeling is that unless E!Wit, Elims probably were loathe to significantly touch the EoD, due to high volatility and low investment. Players who were present but generally stable are likely to be E!candidates. Potential for E!players to have stacked an extra opportunistic vote on E!Wit and then lingered to see if they needed to defend Wit. -Intuition that EoD may actually favour V!Wit, if only because of impression of low E!investment, so I'm going to need to re-examine my vote, or the possibilities - I was hopping around, I V!read Aeo for now, and I think I am alright with V!Mat at this juncture. Mat's response to Aman wasn't the best, but neither was mine, and I actually feel better when I see Mat paranoia, especially on Aman, so I think I am cool with this working thought. Some of this will depend on train sizes, e.g. Elims could still be present in an E!Wit world, if train was sufficiently well-established on Aman. -Major 'Not Touching This' energy from Archer and Devo, potentially STINK and Ash, with a side of Mat. Mat's reluctance here feels a bit more NAI given he's had it both as Village and Evil, and I generally like his eh about Aman as I feel V!Mat tends to be more willing to push Aman. Araris fits here as well but Araris flipped Village, so not interested. -Special mention to Wit's talk about clearing himself on C1 - possible new player eccentricities but in general I don't like that language and consider it a linguistic slip that's more likely from an Elim perspective. (cf. LG96, TJ.) Right. Let's go to the VC and start from there. 1. Aman asks for a VC, and inaugurates a case on Archer. I don't fully like it, because some of it seems Archer NAI stuff, but I've also been sus of Archer so I'm willing to be talked into a vote given a case I can run with, and that's the tenor of our discussions in PM and in thread. Quote Archer (2): Aman, JNV Ash (1): Aeoryi Raven (1): Kas JNV (1): Mat Devo (1): Archer Wit (1): Araris Nobody (6): Devo, Wit, Raven, Ash, STINK, TJ Just FYI: I use green to mark my credences. I don't really feel I have another credence to mark here. I sort of lean V on JNV so I'd be happy to mark them, but I'm ok leaving them unmarked as well for now. I think this matters here for me especially because based off my credences, there's very high Village voting activity but very little sign of Elim voting activity, suggesting either that the Elims are busy at this juncture or just complacent (no Elim under threat.) I think there's Elim incentive to vote as well in this game, but it also points to a lack of need to engage, which suggests, potentially, no Elim seriously under threat at this juncture. Which is reasonable, given it's a string of one-vote trains at present. 2. Ash responds to Archer and Aman. Aman isn't really sussing Ash, Ash just emerges there. 16 hours ago, Ashbringer said: I am a little curious why you call it an inactivity-based vote when it was the 5th post of the cycle? I feel this is a fair question from Ash towards Archer, given how early it was in the cycle to be an inactivity vote. 3. Raven votes Mat, and has Aeoryi as an Elim suspect. Trying to work out what to think about this perspective, given I'm pushing Raven at this juncture. 'No u' is a response from some newer Elims but I don't have a good sense of where Raven might go as I lack a decent baseline. This alters our vote landscape as follows: Quote Archer (2): Aman, JNV Ash (1): Aeoryi Raven (1): Kas JNV (1): Mat Devo (1): Archer Wit (1): Araris Mat (1): Raven Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ 4. Araris shifts to voting for Mat. Side-note that a Stick/JNV/Turtle team N1ed Araris before when Araris looked pretty Village. Shadow/Illwei/Archer/JNV also made a fairly early (N2 I believe? - Ash's LG84) Araris shot. Considering the possibility of an E!JNV world? Araris shot could be E!Devo kill meta as well, as Devo takes kill restrictions seriously, see: avoiding hitting the newer players, Ash was returning, and technically I was returning after a break, which narrows down the kill field. She also favours quiet early kills. @Ashbringer - you're my NKA guy. Thoughts? Araris shifts the votes to: Quote Archer (2): Aman, JNV Ash (1): Aeoryi Raven (1): Kas JNV (1): Mat Devo (1): Archer Mat (2): Raven, Araris Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ Either a V/E landscape (ties it, meaning Elims dgaf), or V/V landscape (double Elim dgaf.) 5. Raven admits to voting Mat on gut, and disliking the number of questions Aeo asked. I kind of want to ask Raven if they assumed Aeo was powerwolfing but kind of recall asking Raven this at a later juncture, so let's move on first. I'll note I don't think the Raven vote is necessarily itself an issue: V!Raven also has a voting incentive here. However, it's also possible E!Raven was trying for a CW candidate, though I don't know if I'd give it much credence - I had moved off Mat, Archer had claimed to V!read Mat so in an E/E world, was not going to self-pres on Mat, and Mat just doesn't feel like a CW candidate here. Unsure. I talk about being tempted to boomerang back to Mat, but that's chronologically after Raven's vote so it's unlikely an issue. Aeo also is not a really great CW candidate given general unwillingness to go on Aeo. Raven and Archer unlikely teamed. (I guess it's possible Raven didn't think through the CW issues, but this requires a grasp of Raven's E!range which I don't have.) 6. Aeo votes Archer. I think it's worth noting pre-emptorily at this juncture that Aeo basically wagonhops a lot. There's a world in which this is E!Aeo flexing, and Aman definitely urged me to consider E!Aeo worlds (which only fueled my suspicions he was trying to FUD me), but in general, my view is that it's a layer of the paranoia kueh lapis I don't want to unnecessarily open unless I have reasons to go there, and going there C1/C2 isn't where I want to be. Sort of the Mat quote I concurred with. I'll also add I think Aeo's wagonhopping, especially without any apparently pressing reason to, feels more like a Villager trying to get things right. Quote Archer (3): Aman, JNV, Aeoryi Raven (1): Kas JNV (1): Mat Devo (1): Archer Mat (2): Raven, Araris Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ This takes Ash out of contention. 7. Aeo isn't sure how to feel about Raven, and feels something is off about Archer. Join the club, Aeo... >> 8. Archer makes a roleclaim with about under three hours to rollover. I'm not sure how I feel about that. It felt way more insane when I had forgotten about Aeo's shifted vote, but leading at three votes, it still feels insane, just less so. In any other player, I'd ask if this was Elim hypersensitivity. With Archer, I think it's still possible, as it radiated some FAFO energy and led to Archer bulldozing a push on Aman which I feel is more typical of E!Archer. 14 hours ago, Archer said: With regards to my voting, normally I'd hop around more, but I was really feeling the Ash train until I lost my nerve to murder a returning player. Aman was a returning player too, but apparently a consideration that doesn't matter here ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ In fact this whole damn game is full of 'em, if you include anyone who was on a break, including myself, Ash, Aman, and TJ, which just brings me back to the Devo suspicions, but also the feeling that Archer's CW here doesn't stack up. 9. Aman votes Mat and wants Archer to prove his role / that he isn't killing. I'm not bothering to log this voteshift as it lasted a very short exchange. 10. Archer declines to. In theory this could be treated as a V!Archer sign, but I also feel E!Archer prefers to brazen things out - V!Archer is big about accountability or understanding where suspicions of him come from. (Thinking of LG96 here as it's my more recent v!Archer touchstone. We'll ignore the bit where Wonko and I went into a massive paranoia rampage for a while since I insist I pulled back off Archer in time to slam the vote on Steel.) Archer expresses an Ash/Devo preference at that point, but in a tie, which is meh because again, no flip. Expresses a V!Mat read and fishes for an Aman train. Noting that Archer neglects to point out that the Elim kill doesn't expend an action. Feels like the obvious oversight here. At the same time, IDK, would E!Archer take the bait? Maybe, but doubtful, since someone was going to point it out pretty fast. 11. Aman revotes Archer, since I correct him. Not putting down the vote shift either since it's a net change of zero. 12. Aman shifts to Mat. Quote Archer (2): JNV, Aeoryi Raven (1): Kas JNV (1): Mat Devo (1): Archer Mat (3): Raven, Araris, Aman Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ I'll add here that Aman's views on Archer aren't stable, as he goes back and forth on V!Archer or E!Archer in our PM. Join the club bro... Mat is now lead train. 13. Mat makes a post about how he keeps getting wagoned, Aman's turnaround is weird (wigging Mat out), and he doesn't want to vote Archer. Actually yeah I think this post is very V!Mat. There's something I think E!Mat has a tendency to say here but I kind of also do not want to say this to the thread so the tell can be used for longer than a couple games >> 14. Aeo follows onto Mat. Quote Archer (1): JNV Raven (1): Kas JNV (1): Mat Devo (1): Archer Mat (4): Raven, Araris, Aman, Aeoryi Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ Dissolution of Archer train and sudden Mat pile-on. 15. Aman doesn't feel great about this, and joins me on Raven. Quote Archer (1): JNV Raven (2): Kas, Aman JNV (1): Mat Devo (1): Archer Mat (3): Raven, Araris, Aeoryi Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ New top trains: Raven/Mat. 16. Archer offers Mat an Aman train. Mat takes it. Side-comment I don't feel this is an E!Mat move YES OKAY I GET IT KAS NOW YOU THINK V!MAT but seriously, CWing on Aman is a Choice for E!Mat and one I'm not necessarily sure he goes for now watch E!Mat prove me wrong but look ok I am still on the V!Mat programme and that's just going to be how it is. Theoretically wondering if it's protective of Raven, but I also feel ? about a Raven/Archer connection as Raven's mentioned CWs don't feel like they can really take off to protect Archer and I'd almost expect E!Raven to be more opportunistic in voting back there. Quote Archer (1): JNV Raven (2): Kas, Aman JNV (1): Mat Aman (1): Archer Mat (3): Raven, Araris, Aeoryi Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ 17. Sorry actual thing, Mat taking the train here. Quote Archer (1): JNV Raven (2): Kas, Aman Aman (2): Archer, Mat Mat (3): Raven, Araris, Aeoryi Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ Three way voy! 18. Aeo votes Aman. Quote Archer (1): JNV Raven (2): Kas, Aman Aman (3): Archer, Mat, Aeoryi Mat (2): Raven, Araris Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ Suddenly the Aman wagon leads. 19. Aeo votes Raven. Quote Archer (1): JNV Raven (3): Kas, Aman, Aeoryi Aman (2): Archer, Mat, Mat (2): Raven, Araris Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ Raven in lead now. Oh my God there's more pages to go aren't there ._. 20. Wit shows up to vote. Trying to recall where this is with Wit parameters but. Wit picking between Raven or Aman does indicate Wit is going for lead trains, but declines Mat. E/E Wit-Mat? >> Quote Archer (1): JNV Raven (3): Kas, Aman, Aeoryi Aman (3): Archer, Mat, Wit Mat (2): Raven, Araris Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ Raven and Aman are tied. I think this could be taken to be protective of Raven, so there's an E/E Raven/Wit world as well. Maybe. That team feels like it needs a third leg but we can get to that later. 21. JNV is extremely invested. I don't know if this is normal from V!JNV. I'd say this is watch territory. 22. Aman considers Wit for opportunistic voting. Quote Archer (1): JNV Raven (2): Kas, Aeoryi Aman (3): Archer, Mat, Wit Mat (2): Raven, Araris Wit (1): Aman Nobody (5): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ Aman still in lead. 23. Aeo does some reading and unvotes Raven. Again, extreme flexing if E!Aeo IMO. Unlikely. Feels like Villager trying to get things right. Quote Archer (1): JNV Raven (1): Kas Aman (3): Archer, Mat, Wit Mat (2): Raven, Araris Wit (1): Aman Nobody (5): Devo, Ash, STINK, TJ, Aeo 24. This is the Mat quote. 11 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: This is where I get in the state I was last game where I feel like you have to be village for engagement reasons but also you keep doing things I do not understand :|. I think it's worth pointing out also that Mat has doubts about the train but it matters in light of Mat refusing to accept Aman being in second place. I would argue that it shows, under pressure, some sincerity about his reads. 11 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: This is objectively true. But he was so pure early on I'm hesitant. Your train feels wrong though, it picked up too fast. But every time I think that I remember the time I panic-unvoted e!xino for the same reason. Circles within circles. Which game btw? 25. Araris is in RP zen heaven. 26. Aman posts a vc. But I think it's wrong and doesn't match what I have. Referenced here, but not posted in order to avoid confusing people. 27. I go over the entire circle all over again and vote Wit at my wits' end. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Mat, Wit Mat (2): Raven, Araris Wit (2): Aman, Kas Nobody (5): Devo, Ash, STINK, TJ, Aeo 28. Aeo goes back to Aman after flipping a coin. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (4): Archer, Mat, Wit, Aeo Mat (2): Raven, Araris Wit (2): Aman, Kas Nobody (4): Devo, Ash, STINK, TJ 29. Devo votes Wit. Interested if this is a suspicion, a desire to save Archer, or a desire to promote Wit. @Devotary of Spontaneity Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (4): Archer, Mat, Wit, Aeo Mat (2): Raven, Araris Wit (3): Aman, Kas, Devo Nobody (3): Ash, STINK, TJ Wit overtakes Mat. Devo/Mat not teamed? 30. I am tempted to vote Mat to try to keep Wit off the secondary promotion. Aman train doesn't look too fightable at this juncture, so I've been looking at Wit's position and discovering I don't like it. 31. Mat unvotes Aman. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Wit, Aeo Mat (2): Raven, Araris Wit (3): Aman, Kas, Devo Nobody (4): Ash, STINK, TJ, Mat This gives us a tie, which Aman was militantly against in our PM, as he felt it would just lead to people repeating C1 on him. 32. Aman swaps to voting for me for promotion reasons and lets Mat know he can vote him. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Wit, Aeo Mat (2): Raven, Araris Wit (2): Kas, Devo Kas (1): Aman Nobody (4): Ash, STINK, TJ, Mat 33. Mat indicates preferring himself or Archer for the Ideal. 34. Aeo suggests Wit as primary train and Aman as secondary. 35. Ash steps in in the middle of a heated argument to reply to Archer. Awkward. 10 hours ago, Ashbringer said: And a roleclaim. Hmm. A bit confusing on why that would make your close vote stance evolve, unless you only realized what Adhesion did halfway through the cycle. @Ashbringer, could you expound on this a bit more, please? 36. Raven shifts from Mat to Aman, saying previous reason for Mat vote was unfounded. Raven also makes a push for Aman and trusts Wit more (?) @Ravenclawjedi42 - Why do you trust Wit? Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Wit, Aeo Mat (2): Raven, Araris Wit (2): Kas, Devo Kas (1): Aman Nobody (4): Ash, STINK, TJ, Mat State of the votes: Aman is leading. While Raven believes vote against Mat is unfounded, favours Wit for secondary vote. I don't feel there's a clear incentive because Aman is leading, unless there were fears of a boomerang back to Wit or to Aman, which could explain Raven's intervention. Potential E/E between Raven and Wit? Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (4): Archer, Wit, Aeo, Raven Mat (1): Araris Wit (2): Kas, Devo Kas (1): Aman Nobody (4): Ash, STINK, TJ, Mat Raven's move has two effects: it puts Aman firmly in the lead, and locks down Wit in second place. (Raven may not necessarily know this, but this is what happens later on in terms of vote movements.) 37. Aeo votes Wit to try to block the Aman train. Is fine with Mat having an Ideal. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Wit, Raven Mat (1): Araris Wit (3): Kas, Devo, Aeo Kas (1): Aman Nobody (4): Ash, STINK, TJ, Mat This has the effect of tying the trains, resulting in a no exe. 38. Exactly a minute later, Ash votes Wit. It's worth noting Ash may not have seen Aeo's shift, meaning Ash might have been working with: Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (4): Archer, Wit, Aeo, Raven Mat (1): Araris Wit (3): Kas, Devo, Ash Kas (1): Aman Nobody (3): STINK, TJ, Mat While this is arguably a CW to Aman, it also locks Wit in second place. The actual effect though, is that it puts Wit in the lead: Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Wit, Raven Mat (1): Araris Wit (4): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Ash Kas (1): Aman Nobody (3): STINK, TJ, Mat These are two very different scenarios, as Ash is willing to endanger Wit in the second, suggesting Wit and Ash not E/E. In the first, Wit and Ash E/E is possible, given Ash continues to be present and could react to votes that push Wit further. 39. Wit asks about how he's expected to clear his name in the first round. Possibly a new player thing, but Wit claims to play mafia IRL. One way or another, noting the potential linguistic slip: Elims think in terms of definites, Villagers are more likely to accept fog-of-war. TJ made a similar slip about insisting he can't prove himself Village, cf. LG96 when he was scanned by Archer. 40. Aeo belatedly realises there is a tie, types, missed Ash's vote, realises that she can still vote Wit. Net zero, not reflecting. Raven/Aeo/Ash not teamed, I think. More so for Aeo and Ash due to the chaos. 41. I get Lion-Dragonfly-Vulture dance PTSD. Also declining promotion for reasons. 42. Mat was going to vote Aman again and ends up being ??? and votes JNV. Possible side of E!Mat refusing the bad train, but unclear. Think the rest is amply V!Mat, but hey this is raw notes. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Wit, Raven Mat (1): Araris Wit (4): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Ash Kas (1): Aman JNV (1): Mat Nobody (2): STINK, TJ 43. Mat balks at the idea Aman might get the Ideal. Fair IMO and indicates consistency under pressure/chaos. V points for it. 44. Aman doesn't want it and would rather die, and CREATES A MCFREAKIN' TIE Aman bro Ilu but this caused me so much stress and consternation Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (4): Archer, Wit, Raven, Aman Mat (1): Araris Wit (4): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Ash JNV (1): Mat Nobody (2): STINK, TJ 45. Aman unvotes to Raven. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Wit, Raven Mat (1): Araris Wit (4): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Ash JNV (1): Mat Raven (1): Aman Nobody (2): STINK, TJ Ah feck you mean I could have saved Aman???? AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 46. Archer Does Not Want To Touch This. Unclear what Archer's view of the trains is at this juncture. 47. Was written through a few posts and I think I missed the Raven shift because in my head it was an Aman/Wit tie that no one was budging over, FML >> I now no longer get to @ Wyrm because I became a brokiller as well Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (4): Archer, Wit, Raven, Kas Mat (1): Araris Wit (3): Devo, Aeo, Ash JNV (1): Mat Raven (1): Aman Nobody (2): STINK, TJ Noting STINK was likely okay with Wit in the lead. Hi, it me, I inadvertently ensured the two outcomes I didn't want: Aman C1ed, and Wit Idealed. Can we please do train negotiations before the eleventh hour next time kthxbai. 48. Aman goes back to Aman Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (5): Archer, Wit, Raven, Kas, Aman Mat (1): Araris Wit (3): Devo, Aeo, Ash JNV (1): Mat Nobody (2): STINK, TJ 49. Ash still RPing. And that's about it. Takeaways: -IMO decent reasons to endorse V!Mat and V!Aeo. -Devo, Archer, and Ash lurking at EoD with reasonably stable votes. Unsure if Raven had presence as well, similar to Wit. -Aeo/Ash not E/E. -JNV comfortable with Archer vote. JNV was present, but checked out. Feels a bit ??? in light of JNV's stated preferences wrt Aman. Willing to reconsider JNV potentially. -Raven's vote feels defensive of Wit. Potential Raven/Wit E/E - Raven's hop doesn't feel quite right in an E!Raven / V!Wit world as Raven has low investment and also can get @ for sheeping. IMO this means E!Raven entails E!Wit (E!Wit could still be possible in a V!Raven world, I think.) -Ash/Wit E/E less likely but Ash has decent risk tolerance, and was around enough to unvote Wit if necessary. This would ensure Wit in third place. -Similar ? about Devo. -In V!Wit / V!Aman world, STINK's dgaf energy feels weirder. -Given STINK's PM with Aman, STINK's indifference to this exe is also ? Personal Thoughts/Places to Go From Here: Formal pool for me at the moment: <Archer, Ash, JNV, Devo, Raven, Wit, STINK> -STINK's dgaf energy is/was potent,but at the same time, declined to try collecting RP or vote points. Noted about Aman's mention of Elim playstyles, and STINK had no investment in the exe. -Raven's push onto Aman has little strategic reason if Wit isn't also Evil. It's possible it's just how E!Raven plays, and sheeping is well within Raven's range, I think, but this probably means I'd be more inclined to push E!Wit as a hypothesis over E!Raven at this juncture. -Still not a fan of Archer's FAFO counterpush. Archer lurking at EoD indicates low investment but ok with Aman getting an Ideal. Possibly consistent with view on second exe from earlier. (Side-note: E!Archer may not be a fan of shooting me, unclear if he'd go Araris since Mat is an option for him.) -Devo feels like an underlooked suspect: part of the series of movements that locks Wit into second place, and lurking with low investment. Cleared all RP and voting incentives. Araris kill fits squarely within Devo's kill MO. (Side-note: Don't feel Wit and Raven would regard an Araris kill to be as intuitive.) -JNV also feels underlooked, having remained on Archer despite being online and V!reading Aman, checked out of things. Believe the Araris kill is within JNV's kill MO. JNV was online enough to put in all RP incentives but not engaged with the voting despite doing a cycle catch-up. #FeelsBad to suspect JNV because of known engagement E!meta, but think it's something worth monitoring. Possible I am too hesitant to push JNV. -Ash filling out RP entails lurking, which meant Ash could acceptably endanger Wit to try to get the Ideal. A lot hinges on whether Ash saw Aeo's vote or not. Aeo did not see Ash's so either scenario is plausible. -Not a fan of Wit's talk of clearing himself C1. Agree it could be a new player thing, but feel it's something I like to apply pressure to. Feel that Wit's alignment here does partially reflect on the vote movements, so pushing Wit might be worthwile (e.g. possible that E!Devo opportunistically preferred V!Wit get the Ideal as compared to V!Mat.) -Do not feel an Araris kill really makes sense in an E!Raven or E!Wit team but I could just not have enough info to guess. Alright. Did my best at a first go over, I now have to do some work and decompress. Edited November 7, 2023 by Kasimir
Kasimir he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) Sorry, new post. Doublepost is weird but the previous one is so long and unwieldy. I'll try to keep this short, as a new consideration just popped into my head. Trying to work through a view of Wit CW. I want to take a slightly different angle, about the likelihood of train purity, and just look at the voting. Well, that and one more volatility look. I've been going back and forth about Wit, but let's look at the last couple of vote changes: 1. Aeo votes Wit to save Aman - 12 minutes to rollover, or 0948hrs. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Wit, Raven Mat (1): Araris Wit (3): Kas, Devo, Aeo Kas (1): Aman Nobody (4): Ash, STINK, TJ, Mat 2. Ash votes Wit - 11 minutes to rollover, or 0949hrs. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Wit, Raven Mat (1): Araris Wit (4): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Ash Kas (1): Aman Nobody (3): STINK, TJ, Mat This puts Wit in the lead, or among the lead trains, for the next 11 minutes or so. If V!Archer, then the Elims must be assuming Archer would have Soothed someone on Wit, otherwise that's reckless endangerment for no apparent reason, especially given that: A. Devo's and Ash's votes remain stable (counterpoint: they couldn't go anywhere else, and/or Ash was considering whether to withdraw) B. They were hoping Mat would go back on Aman Slight decrease in likelihood that Ash and Wit are teamed: at 0949hrs as well, Wit makes a post about clearing his name. IMO, clear scenario for Ash and Wit to interact, potentially distance, or give Ash a reason to go off Wit. This doesn't happen. Between Devo and Ash, consider Devo more likely potential partner - E!Devo is known to believe moving off would be more sus. 3. Mat votes JNV - 9 minutes to rollover, or 0951hrs. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Wit, Raven Mat (1): Araris Wit (4): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Ash Kas (1): Aman JNV (1): Mat Nobody (2): STINK, TJ This locks Mat on JNV as a potential source of intervention on Aman. Ash is still comfortable with the Wit vote, as apparently is Devo. 4. Aman self-votes - 5 minutes to rollover, or 0955hrs. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (4): Archer, Wit, Raven, Aman Mat (1): Araris Wit (4): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Ash JNV (1): Mat Nobody (2): STINK, TJ This creates a tie, arguably preventing the need for intervention. Though Elims may have suspected/known about Archer's Soothe, depending on your Archer read. 5. Aman moves off onto Raven - 2 minutes to rollover, or 0958hrs. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (3): Archer, Wit, Raven Mat (1): Araris Wit (4): Kas, Devo, Aeo, Ash JNV (1): Mat Raven (1): Aman Nobody (2): STINK, TJ Wit once more in the lead, if not a tie due to vote manip. If E!Ash, keep in mind Ash is writing extensive RP, which suggests a certain degree of comfort with Wit's fate. I'd estimate this would've burned up at least three minutes for Ash, suggesting it was written somewhere between 4. and 5. 6. I belatedly swap from Wit to Aman, almost at the same time - 2 minutes to rollover, 0958hrs. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (4): Archer, Wit, Raven, Kas Mat (1): Araris Wit (3): Devo, Aeo, Ash JNV (1): Mat Raven (1): Aman Nobody (2): STINK, TJ 7. Aman seals the train - 1 minute to rollover, 0959hrs. Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (4): Archer, Wit, Raven, Kas, Aman Mat (1): Araris Wit (3): Devo, Aeo, Ash JNV (1): Mat Nobody (2): STINK, TJ Thoughts/Theorising: -I'm definitely very risk-averse as an Elim, but it seems to me that in an E!Wit, E!Devo, and E!Ash world, they're extremely cold-blooded about the risk to Wit given high Villager volatility, with Ash even writing RP. Ash I feel in particular was in a decent position to vote Archer if fishing for a CW but declined. This nudges me a bit towards considering V!Wit but not significantly so. -Devo in particular is more likely to feel she shouldn't move if it is more sus to. -Wit's alignment has soft implications for Devo and Ash, with Devo being somewhat more likely than Ash. -Archer being on that team makes it a tad more palatable but uncertain of Devo/Archer/Wit likelihood. -Raven another potential Wit teammate. Ah soddit. Pathwalk I guess. (i) V!Wit: Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (4): Archer, Wit, Raven, Kas, Aman Mat (1): Araris Wit (3): Devo, Aeo, Ash JNV (1): Mat Nobody (2): STINK, TJ Ex-hypothesi, V!Wit. Marked as such. -Some implications of V!Raven: weird for E!Raven to make the move from Mat to Aman. Guess E!Raven could be a sheeper, but not tactical imperative. -Either Aman train pure; if not pure, Archer more likely Elim on it. (Recall Archer and Raven unlikely teamed.) -JNV's sidetrain vote radiates pure E!dgaf energy, given stated investment in Aman. -Devo's and Ash's disregard for Wit's welfare put them in the likely E!pool: <JNV, Devo, Ash> the pool, with a side of STINK. Hard to make a TJ evaluation given TJ's absence until now. [Edited to add: side of STINK and maybe Archer.] (ii) E!Wit: Quote Archer (1): JNV Aman (4): Archer, Wit, Raven, Kas, Aman Mat (1): Araris Wit (3): Devo, Aeo, Ash JNV (1): Mat Nobody (2): STINK, TJ Ex-hypothesi, E!Wit. Marked as such. -Raven looks more E on this picture, hopping onto Aman to protect Wit. Worth noting there is a two way connection between Raven and Wit - Raven indicates trust of Wit, and Wit favours voting Aman over Raven, which is a tacit shielding preference. -Do not believe it is as likely that both <Devo, Ash> are Evil - at most one is, I think. (Also numerically, can see 2-3 Elims.) More likely Devo than Ash. -JNV's refusal to CW in this world makes it hard to imagine a teaming, but could theoretically see E!JNV refuse to CW on Aman. -STINK's refusal looks a bit good I think. -Main E!pool is: <JNV, Devo/Ash, Raven>. I guess there's a theoretical Archer side but all three teammates or two on Aman is a bit rough here. Edited to add: Current takeaways - I think Devo and JNV look sus in either world, so worth pushing. I can't say I am completely objective in assessing JNV but I sort of feel it's a better fit for Devo's kill MO than JNV's, which is the main concern pushing me here. Thread behaviour-wise, I think JNV looks worse. I am trying to bracket my knowledge of JNV's E!meta as if JNV is Evil, I'll be forcing them to go inactive to prove they are V, which feels rough to do to a player. Raven mostly looks E in an E!Wit world. Two way between Raven and Wit is interesting if they are E/V, so maybe V/V or E/E worlds more likely. Edited to add 2: @Fifth Scholar: Dein Titel führt hier zu extremen Herzschmerzen, wenn man den Konjunktiv II liest Edited November 7, 2023 by Kasimir
Guest Ψιτιsτηε Βεsτ Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Kasimir said: Fair. I think one reason I overlooked it was - it's role madness, and so many roles are pretty cracked. But yeah, mostly just short of mental bandwidth in the middle of all the chaos, and kind of figured Aman would handle it. Probably could take his refusal to claim and preference for death as a V!sign, but it's easier to think when not under time pressure to make a judgement call and to get an exe placement/CW (for secondary) everyone can live with, ignoring negative modifiers like insomnia-caused sleep deprivation. I think no one really expected (I certainly didn't) - even despite the earlier wrangling - just how relevant the secondary exe placing discussion would suddenly become, e.g. CWing on Wit wasn't okay because Aman having an Ideal wasn't okay either. I ask myself that too >> Going to do some preliminary analysis as best as I can. I don't have the time to do the entire thread as I have things due, so I'm going to take Aman's arrival and the first ever VC (!) as a starting point. I think this is fair as things only degenerated into chaos beyond that juncture. I'm sort of going to do this a bit backwards as I'm just dumping raw analysis in the thread instead of my GM PM, so I might make some mistakes as I go along, and then correct them towards the end. Overall Impressions: -Chaotic EoD. General feeling is that unless E!Wit, Elims probably were loathe to significantly touch the EoD, due to high volatility and low investment. Players who were present but generally stable are likely to be E!candidates. Potential for E!players to have stacked an extra opportunistic vote on E!Wit and then lingered to see if they needed to defend Wit. -Intuition that EoD may actually favour V!Wit, if only because of impression of low E!investment, so I'm going to need to re-examine my vote, or the possibilities - I was hopping around, I V!read Aeo for now, and I think I am alright with V!Mat at this juncture. Mat's response to Aman wasn't the best, but neither was mine, and I actually feel better when I see Mat paranoia, especially on Aman, so I think I am cool with this working thought. Some of this will depend on train sizes, e.g. Elims could still be present in an E!Wit world, if train was sufficiently well-established on Aman. -Major 'Not Touching This' energy from Archer and Devo, potentially STINK and Ash, with a side of Mat. Mat's reluctance here feels a bit more NAI given he's had it both as Village and Evil, and I generally like his eh about Aman as I feel V!Mat tends to be more willing to push Aman. Araris fits here as well but Araris flipped Village, so not interested. -Special mention to Wit's talk about clearing himself on C1 - possible new player eccentricities but in general I don't like that language and consider it a linguistic slip that's more likely from an Elim perspective. (cf. LG96, TJ.) Right. Let's go to the VC and start from there. 1. Aman asks for a VC, and inaugurates a case on Archer. I don't fully like it, because some of it seems Archer NAI stuff, but I've also been sus of Archer so I'm willing to be talked into a vote given a case I can run with, and that's the tenor of our discussions in PM and in thread. Just FYI: I use green to mark my credences. I don't really feel I have another credence to mark here. I sort of lean V on JNV so I'd be happy to mark them, but I'm ok leaving them unmarked as well for now. I think this matters here for me especially because based off my credences, there's very high Village voting activity but very little sign of Elim voting activity, suggesting either that the Elims are busy at this juncture or just complacent (no Elim under threat.) I think there's Elim incentive to vote as well in this game, but it also points to a lack of need to engage, which suggests, potentially, no Elim seriously under threat at this juncture. Which is reasonable, given it's a string of one-vote trains at present. 2. Ash responds to Archer and Aman. Aman isn't really sussing Ash, Ash just emerges there. I feel this is a fair question from Ash towards Archer, given how early it was in the cycle to be an inactivity vote. 3. Raven votes Mat, and has Aeoryi as an Elim suspect. Trying to work out what to think about this perspective, given I'm pushing Raven at this juncture. 'No u' is a response from some newer Elims but I don't have a good sense of where Raven might go as I lack a decent baseline. This alters our vote landscape as follows: 4. Araris shifts to voting for Mat. Side-note that a Stick/JNV/Turtle team N1ed Araris before when Araris looked pretty Village. Shadow/Illwei/Archer/JNV also made a fairly early (N2 I believe? - Ash's LG84) Araris shot. Considering the possibility of an E!JNV world? Araris shot could be E!Devo kill meta as well, as Devo takes kill restrictions seriously, see: avoiding hitting the newer players, Ash was returning, and technically I was returning after a break, which narrows down the kill field. She also favours quiet early kills. @Ashbringer - you're my NKA guy. Thoughts? Araris shifts the votes to: Either a V/E landscape (ties it, meaning Elims dgaf), or V/V landscape (double Elim dgaf.) 5. Raven admits to voting Mat on gut, and disliking the number of questions Aeo asked. I kind of want to ask Raven if they assumed Aeo was powerwolfing but kind of recall asking Raven this at a later juncture, so let's move on first. I'll note I don't think the Raven vote is necessarily itself an issue: V!Raven also has a voting incentive here. However, it's also possible E!Raven was trying for a CW candidate, though I don't know if I'd give it much credence - I had moved off Mat, Archer had claimed to V!read Mat so in an E/E world, was not going to self-pres on Mat, and Mat just doesn't feel like a CW candidate here. Unsure. I talk about being tempted to boomerang back to Mat, but that's chronologically after Raven's vote so it's unlikely an issue. Aeo also is not a really great CW candidate given general unwillingness to go on Aeo. Raven and Archer unlikely teamed. (I guess it's possible Raven didn't think through the CW issues, but this requires a grasp of Raven's E!range which I don't have.) 6. Aeo votes Archer. I think it's worth noting pre-emptorily at this juncture that Aeo basically wagonhops a lot. There's a world in which this is E!Aeo flexing, and Aman definitely urged me to consider E!Aeo worlds (which only fueled my suspicions he was trying to FUD me), but in general, my view is that it's a layer of the paranoia kueh lapis I don't want to unnecessarily open unless I have reasons to go there, and going there C1/C2 isn't where I want to be. Sort of the Mat quote I concurred with. I'll also add I think Aeo's wagonhopping, especially without any apparently pressing reason to, feels more like a Villager trying to get things right. This takes Ash out of contention. 7. Aeo isn't sure how to feel about Raven, and feels something is off about Archer. Join the club, Aeo... >> 8. Archer makes a roleclaim with about under three hours to rollover. I'm not sure how I feel about that. It felt way more insane when I had forgotten about Aeo's shifted vote, but leading at three votes, it still feels insane, just less so. In any other player, I'd ask if this was Elim hypersensitivity. With Archer, I think it's still possible, as it radiated some FAFO energy and led to Archer bulldozing a push on Aman which I feel is more typical of E!Archer. Aman was a returning player too, but apparently a consideration that doesn't matter here ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ In fact this whole damn game is full of 'em, if you include anyone who was on a break, including myself, Ash, Aman, and TJ, which just brings me back to the Devo suspicions, but also the feeling that Archer's CW here doesn't stack up. 9. Aman votes Mat and wants Archer to prove his role / that he isn't killing. I'm not bothering to log this voteshift as it lasted a very short exchange. 10. Archer declines to. In theory this could be treated as a V!Archer sign, but I also feel E!Archer prefers to brazen things out - V!Archer is big about accountability or understanding where suspicions of him come from. (Thinking of LG96 here as it's my more recent v!Archer touchstone. We'll ignore the bit where Wonko and I went into a massive paranoia rampage for a while since I insist I pulled back off Archer in time to slam the vote on Steel.) Archer expresses an Ash/Devo preference at that point, but in a tie, which is meh because again, no flip. Expresses a V!Mat read and fishes for an Aman train. Noting that Archer neglects to point out that the Elim kill doesn't expend an action. Feels like the obvious oversight here. At the same time, IDK, would E!Archer take the bait? Maybe, but doubtful, since someone was going to point it out pretty fast. 11. Aman revotes Archer, since I correct him. Not putting down the vote shift either since it's a net change of zero. 12. Aman shifts to Mat. I'll add here that Aman's views on Archer aren't stable, as he goes back and forth on V!Archer or E!Archer in our PM. Join the club bro... Mat is now lead train. 13. Mat makes a post about how he keeps getting wagoned, Aman's turnaround is weird (wigging Mat out), and he doesn't want to vote Archer. Actually yeah I think this post is very V!Mat. There's something I think E!Mat has a tendency to say here but I kind of also do not want to say this to the thread so the tell can be used for longer than a couple games >> 14. Aeo follows onto Mat. Dissolution of Archer train and sudden Mat pile-on. 15. Aman doesn't feel great about this, and joins me on Raven. New top trains: Raven/Mat. 16. Archer offers Mat an Aman train. Mat takes it. Side-comment I don't feel this is an E!Mat move YES OKAY I GET IT KAS NOW YOU THINK V!MAT but seriously, CWing on Aman is a Choice for E!Mat and one I'm not necessarily sure he goes for now watch E!Mat prove me wrong but look ok I am still on the V!Mat programme and that's just going to be how it is. Theoretically wondering if it's protective of Raven, but I also feel ? about a Raven/Archer connection as Raven's mentioned CWs don't feel like they can really take off to protect Archer and I'd almost expect E!Raven to be more opportunistic in voting back there. 17. Sorry actual thing, Mat taking the train here. Three way voy! 18. Aeo votes Aman. Suddenly the Aman wagon leads. 19. Aeo votes Raven. Raven in lead now. Oh my God there's more pages to go aren't there ._. 20. Wit shows up to vote. Trying to recall where this is with Wit parameters but. Wit picking between Raven or Aman does indicate Wit is going for lead trains, but declines Mat. E/E Wit-Mat? >> Raven and Aman are tied. I think this could be taken to be protective of Raven, so there's an E/E Raven/Wit world as well. Maybe. That team feels like it needs a third leg but we can get to that later. 21. JNV is extremely invested. I don't know if this is normal from V!JNV. I'd say this is watch territory. 22. Aman considers Wit for opportunistic voting. Aman still in lead. 23. Aeo does some reading and unvotes Raven. Again, extreme flexing if E!Aeo IMO. Unlikely. Feels like Villager trying to get things right. 24. This is the Mat quote. I think it's worth pointing out also that Mat has doubts about the train but it matters in light of Mat refusing to accept Aman being in second place. I would argue that it shows, under pressure, some sincerity about his reads. Which game btw? 25. Araris is in RP zen heaven. 26. Aman posts a vc. But I think it's wrong and doesn't match what I have. Referenced here, but not posted in order to avoid confusing people. 27. I go over the entire circle all over again and vote Wit at my wits' end. 28. Aeo goes back to Aman after flipping a coin. 29. Devo votes Wit. Interested if this is a suspicion, a desire to save Archer, or a desire to promote Wit. @Devotary of Spontaneity Wit overtakes Mat. Devo/Mat not teamed? 30. I am tempted to vote Mat to try to keep Wit off the secondary promotion. Aman train doesn't look too fightable at this juncture, so I've been looking at Wit's position and discovering I don't like it. 31. Mat unvotes Aman. This gives us a tie, which Aman was militantly against in our PM, as he felt it would just lead to people repeating C1 on him. 32. Aman swaps to voting for me for promotion reasons and lets Mat know he can vote him. 33. Mat indicates preferring himself or Archer for the Ideal. 34. Aeo suggests Wit as primary train and Aman as secondary. 35. Ash steps in in the middle of a heated argument to reply to Archer. Awkward. @Ashbringer, could you expound on this a bit more, please? 36. Raven shifts from Mat to Aman, saying previous reason for Mat vote was unfounded. Raven also makes a push for Aman and trusts Wit more (?) @Ravenclawjedi42 - Why do you trust Wit? State of the votes: Aman is leading. While Raven believes vote against Mat is unfounded, favours Wit for secondary vote. I don't feel there's a clear incentive because Aman is leading, unless there were fears of a boomerang back to Wit or to Aman, which could explain Raven's intervention. Potential E/E between Raven and Wit? Raven's move has two effects: it puts Aman firmly in the lead, and locks down Wit in second place. (Raven may not necessarily know this, but this is what happens later on in terms of vote movements.) 37. Aeo votes Wit to try to block the Aman train. Is fine with Mat having an Ideal. This has the effect of tying the trains, resulting in a no exe. 38. Exactly a minute later, Ash votes Wit. It's worth noting Ash may not have seen Aeo's shift, meaning Ash might have been working with: While this is arguably a CW to Aman, it also locks Wit in second place. The actual effect though, is that it puts Wit in the lead: These are two very different scenarios, as Ash is willing to endanger Wit in the second, suggesting Wit and Ash not E/E. In the first, Wit and Ash E/E is possible, given Ash continues to be present and could react to votes that push Wit further. 39. Wit asks about how he's expected to clear his name in the first round. Possibly a new player thing, but Wit claims to play mafia IRL. One way or another, noting the potential linguistic slip: Elims think in terms of definites, Villagers are more likely to accept fog-of-war. TJ made a similar slip about insisting he can't prove himself Village, cf. LG96 when he was scanned by Archer. 40. Aeo belatedly realises there is a tie, types, missed Ash's vote, realises that she can still vote Wit. Net zero, not reflecting. Raven/Aeo/Ash not teamed, I think. More so for Aeo and Ash due to the chaos. 41. I get Lion-Dragonfly-Vulture dance PTSD. Also declining promotion for reasons. 42. Mat was going to vote Aman again and ends up being ??? and votes JNV. Possible side of E!Mat refusing the bad train, but unclear. Think the rest is amply V!Mat, but hey this is raw notes. 43. Mat balks at the idea Aman might get the Ideal. Fair IMO and indicates consistency under pressure/chaos. V points for it. 44. Aman doesn't want it and would rather die, and CREATES A MCFREAKIN' TIE Aman bro Ilu but this caused me so much stress and consternation 45. Aman unvotes to Raven. Ah feck you mean I could have saved Aman???? AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 46. Archer Does Not Want To Touch This. Unclear what Archer's view of the trains is at this juncture. 47. Was written through a few posts and I think I missed the Raven shift because in my head it was an Aman/Wit tie that no one was budging over, FML >> I now no longer get to @ Wyrm because I became a brokiller as well Noting STINK was likely okay with Wit in the lead. Hi, it me, I inadvertently ensured the two outcomes I didn't want: Aman C1ed, and Wit Idealed. Can we please do train negotiations before the eleventh hour next time kthxbai. 48. Aman goes back to Aman 49. Ash still RPing. And that's about it. Takeaways: -IMO decent reasons to endorse V!Mat and V!Aeo. -Devo, Archer, and Ash lurking at EoD with reasonably stable votes. Unsure if Raven had presence as well, similar to Wit. -Aeo/Ash not E/E. -JNV comfortable with Archer vote. JNV was present, but checked out. Feels a bit ??? in light of JNV's stated preferences wrt Aman. Willing to reconsider JNV potentially. -Raven's vote feels defensive of Wit. Potential Raven/Wit E/E - Raven's hop doesn't feel quite right in an E!Raven / V!Wit world as Raven has low investment and also can get @ for sheeping. IMO this means E!Raven entails E!Wit (E!Wit could still be possible in a V!Raven world, I think.) -Ash/Wit E/E less likely but Ash has decent risk tolerance, and was around enough to unvote Wit if necessary. This would ensure Wit in third place. -Similar ? about Devo. -In V!Wit / V!Aman world, STINK's dgaf energy feels weirder. -Given STINK's PM with Aman, STINK's indifference to this exe is also ? Personal Thoughts/Places to Go From Here: Formal pool for me at the moment: <Archer, Ash, JNV, Devo, Raven, Wit, STINK> -STINK's dgaf energy is/was potent,but at the same time, declined to try collecting RP or vote points. Noted about Aman's mention of Elim playstyles, and STINK had no investment in the exe. -Raven's push onto Aman has little strategic reason if Wit isn't also Evil. It's possible it's just how E!Raven plays, and sheeping is well within Raven's range, I think, but this probably means I'd be more inclined to push E!Wit as a hypothesis over E!Raven at this juncture. -Still not a fan of Archer's FAFO counterpush. Archer lurking at EoD indicates low investment but ok with Aman getting an Ideal. Possibly consistent with view on second exe from earlier. (Side-note: E!Archer may not be a fan of shooting me, unclear if he'd go Araris since Mat is an option for him.) -Devo feels like an underlooked suspect: part of the series of movements that locks Wit into second place, and lurking with low investment. Cleared all RP and voting incentives. Araris kill fits squarely within Devo's kill MO. (Side-note: Don't feel Wit and Raven would regard an Araris kill to be as intuitive.) -JNV also feels underlooked, having remained on Archer despite being online and V!reading Aman, checked out of things. Believe the Araris kill is within JNV's kill MO. JNV was online enough to put in all RP incentives but not engaged with the voting despite doing a cycle catch-up. #FeelsBad to suspect JNV because of known engagement E!meta, but think it's something worth monitoring. Possible I am too hesitant to push JNV. -Ash filling out RP entails lurking, which meant Ash could acceptably endanger Wit to try to get the Ideal. A lot hinges on whether Ash saw Aeo's vote or not. Aeo did not see Ash's so either scenario is plausible. -Not a fan of Wit's talk of clearing himself C1. Agree it could be a new player thing, but feel it's something I like to apply pressure to. Feel that Wit's alignment here does partially reflect on the vote movements, so pushing Wit might be worthwile (e.g. possible that E!Devo opportunistically preferred V!Wit get the Ideal as compared to V!Mat.) -Do not feel an Araris kill really makes sense in an E!Raven or E!Wit team but I could just not have enough info to guess. Alright. Did my best at a first go over, I now have to do some work and decompress. Just a saying, and I k ow y’all are going to talk about how much of a random post this is, but that might be the longest post I have ever seen.
Kasimir he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 1 minute ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said: Just a saying, and I k ow y’all are going to talk about how much of a random post this is, but that might be the longest post I have ever seen. I've had longer ones.
STINK he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Kasimir said: STINK's dgaf energy is/was potent,but at the same time, declined to try collecting RP or vote points. Noted about Aman's mention of Elim playstyles, and STINK had no investment in the exe Quick read through of this thread and boy am I not looking forward to reading the 3 pages you guys did outta nowhere but uh it's not dgaf energy it's the asleep energy? Like I was asleep when all this went down lol Can't say what I would have done there definitively as of now but yeah I was just asleep
Kasimir he/him Posted November 7, 2023 Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, STINK said: Quick read through of this thread and boy am I not looking forward to reading the 3 pages you guys did outta nowhere but uh it's not dgaf energy it's the asleep energy? Like I was asleep when all this went down lol Can't say what I would have done there definitively as of now but yeah I was just asleep Thought Aman mentioned he saw you on. Cheers for the correction. Edited to add: Been informed y'all apparently get notifs now for each linked post. My condolences Edited November 7, 2023 by Kasimir
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