Mid-Range Game 66: Knights of Wind and Truth

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, STINK said:

Where'd all the Americans go then

Araris scared them off as he lurks in the thread and judges all of us for letting him die

[Archer he/him]

I too would have liked to know Aman's role, but I accept your shifting of blame for it to the dead guy, Kas. :P. 

I'd also like to comment on JNV making a verrrrry long post  but coming up with no actionable conclusions. Looks like e!over-compensating. 

Narrative recap of my thinking this round:

1/ Wrote RP. Needed a name to throw in as a suspect, chose Ashbringer because his character has a cool one.

2/ Ash’s initial reaction was ‘he probably voted me because I was lurking without posting’ + answering someone asking what he’d done with ‘nothing much’. Then, importantly, he was very engaged. I felt like he thought I thought he was a lurker and was trying to beat the accusation by being very present. (Plus I think the GM must have given the elim team RPers and Ashbringer is a serial one.) I had more trusts than suspects during the round, so the Ash vote stuck. Didn’t really want to look at Raven or Wit over their posts because they seemed conservative, but I thought it was just because they earnestly answered softball questions and were hesitant to engage. I didn’t see enough to exe what I think are newish players C1. Really my kill list was Stink, Devo, Ash (kinda).

 

3/ Jump forward to when I roleclaim. I think I intuitively felt that most of the voting had been villagers so far: Aoeryi, Mat, Kas, Araris etc. I hadn’t felt like there was really bad votes/wagons to react to, so I was playing defense. Furthermore, I didn’t like the idea of basically tanking the exe with my vote manip ability and having to explain why I’d done it undeclared while also not being able to demonstrate it was me, not an e!teammate that had done it.

4/ Last game, v!Mat and I found each other fairly quickly then aggressively fumbled the bag and allowed each other to be exed. I wanted to avoid a repeat of that, so I wasn’t voting for Mat and was in fact looking for ways to save him – hence the Aman push.

5/ I’d mentally decided on exing Experience if I hated all the other active options because at worst we get rid of an inactive villager. When they were pinch hit for, I mentally banked on the elim getting replaced first because their absence matters the most to the game. Bad assumption, obviously, don’t metagame, kids. Anyway, I also viewed Aman as less committed to playing this game because they’d signed up as a pinch hitter, so I hoped they’d feel the least bad over being promptly murdered. (Sorry, Aman.) I loathe deciding who dies C1, usually I leave the main wagon up to other people so its an inevitability I just help along. In this case the desire to save Mat kicked in though; I certainly preferred my read of them to my read of Aman.

6/ My Aman read was probably reactionary too. It was the first bold, bad vote I’d seen, so I seized it as a chance to vote something I felt right about. Right because they were wrong, so clearly they were trying to mix me.

7/ Regarding Aman’s request to vote manip, I was planning to use my manip to supress his vote so I rejected it out of hand. I didn’t even think about the NK being a free action.

8/ After some IRL activities, I checked in with 15 minutes to go. Spent ten minutes trying to follow the VCs so I could see if I could manip the votes into saving someone. With 5 to go I looked at my post I’d started writing and posted it much too late to do anything. Then manipped Devo since I wasn’t sure the votes were close so I resolved to make sure Aman died to get closure.

 *

Phil had had a long day shouting at people. After living alone for so long, he was still trying to figure out how to speak at an appropriate volume. It didn’t help that they were outside now and everyone was using outdoor voices. Eventually, he had gone to bed.

And been rudely awakened by a thump.

Phil examined the rock that lay by his bedroll. He half expected it to lay in a pile of shattered glass, but his tent didn’t have a window, so it wasn’t a case of someone trying to threaten him. Probably.

He flipped it over. There was writing! Perhaps it was a threat. By some alliteration loving villain with really sloppy handwriting. As threats go, it seemed impersonal. As if the message had been mass produced.

“If you’re going to threaten me, at least make me feel special.”

Phil reignited his fire and held the stone against the flames to check for invisible ink. He also tried pouring water on it, licking it, and sticking it in a stew with three onions, two carrots, and some spices.

“Delicious.”

Alas, after digesting the idea for a few minutes, he was unable to discern any special meaning. Perhaps he should speak to the others in his squadron to confirm they had also received mysterious messages.

Edit:

ignore this very benign spoiler tag 

Spoiler

you've been subliminal messaged 

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by Archer
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[Aeoryi she/her]

Okay lemme read the wall post and then I'll wake up and question time

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I too would have liked to know Aman's role, but I accept your shifting of blame for it to the dead guy, Kas. :P. 

I'd also like to comment on JNV making a verrrrry long post  but coming up with no actionable conclusions. Looks like e!over-compensating. 

Narrative recap of my thinking this round:

Sure, next time y'all want to exe someone at the last hour, maybe ask me if I know their role first, that way it'll get through the "oh crap how do I stop this disaster" panic (mildly sarcastic joke)  

My main takeaway from this: checks out, would like to hear Ash's issue, but that's an Ash problem, I currently really want Devo dead (for clarity since that was a longpost and to save Fifth's sanity) so that probably works.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I think no one really expected (I certainly didn't) - even despite the earlier wrangling - just how relevant the secondary exe placing discussion would suddenly become, e.g. CWing on Wit wasn't okay because Aman having an Ideal wasn't okay either.

This is where I would say "I told you so" but I completely forgot about it as well so if I say that I have to say it to myself as well xD

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

-Special mention to Wit's talk about clearing himself on C1 - possible new player eccentricities but in general I don't like that language and consider it a linguistic slip that's more likely from an Elim perspective. (cf. LG96, TJ.)

Mmm I forgot about that. I can almost understand that, because for me being read village as a villager is of near-equal importance (if not entirely equal) to being read village as an elim. I'm not sure if Wit would have that deep of an understanding of the game yet, though.

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

8. Archer makes a roleclaim with about under three hours to rollover. I'm not sure how I feel about that. It felt way more insane when I had forgotten about Aeo's shifted vote, but leading at three votes, it still feels insane, just less so. In any other player, I'd ask if this was Elim hypersensitivity. With Archer, I think it's still possible, as it radiated some FAFO energy and led to Archer bulldozing a push on Aman which I feel is more typical of E!Archer.

With Archer, I don't think he'd fall to three-hour-early elim hypersensitivity. He's too headstrong for that. e!Archer claiming here would have to be a piece of some other plan (like the bulldozing you mentioned) but I don't remember if the chronology works in favor of him thinking that far in advance. With my light v!read of him, though, it's not something I'm considering right now.

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Which game btw?

Bro half the time I forget what game we're currently playing, there isn't a chance in the world I pull that out of a hat :|. I can look later if you really want but the situation basically was as I described; xino was suspicious so I voted him, suddenly everyone and their dog voted him, I panicked and pulled off, he flipped elim :P.

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ah feck you mean I could have saved Aman????

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Quoting this because I think it illustrates a point-- no one had any real idea of what the VC was at any point during the last half hour or so. Sure, people were posting them, but they were either straight-up wrong or rendered out of date within seconds. So I sort of question the value of EoD VC analysis. At least, the analysis that gets in the details. Broad stroke analysis obviously shouldn't be ignored, but I don't think you can rely on assuming that little shifting moves were strategically intentional.

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Possible I am too hesitant to push JNV.

I'll help  JNV

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

-Do not feel an Araris kill really makes sense in an E!Raven or E!Wit team but I could just not have enough info to guess.

I mean, sure, but any team with both of them on it I think the third elim decides the kill every time. At least on C1 for sure.

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Guess E!Raven could be a sheeper

This would not surprise me fwiw

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

-JNV's sidetrain vote radiates pure E!dgaf energy, given stated investment in Aman.

Fair  It was the kind of investment where I didn't know which way I was invested.

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I'd also like to comment on JNV making a verrrrry long post  but coming up with no actionable conclusions. Looks like e!over-compensating. 

Forgot to mention this, I did notice it, yeah.

There are two more posts to reveal but I'm posting now as this is already probably terrible on the eyes

Edit: @Aeoryi no need to ask questions to stoke discussion if discussion is happening  

Edited November 7, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fair  It was the kind of investment where I didn't know which way I was invested.

I'm actually referring to JNV's side vote on Archer. Though I'm once again potentially coming around to V!JNV so I really DK

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Quoting this because I think it illustrates a point-- no one had any real idea of what the VC was at any point during the last half hour or so. Sure, people were posting them, but they were either straight-up wrong or rendered out of date within seconds. So I sort of question the value of EoD VC analysis. At least, the analysis that gets in the details. Broad stroke analysis obviously shouldn't be ignored, but I don't think you can rely on assuming that little shifting moves were strategically intentional.

Well, for one, I think the cut off is probably half an hour to the last twenty minutes, which was really when the VCs became unstable. Before that, it was still shifting and so worth looking at. And either way, you can probably capture some version of what the player was working with, e.g. it was pretty useful in showing V!Devo in LG90, and in this case, it was pretty clear I was working with the 4/4 version of the EoD VC. Where I think it's more helpful is basically just that I'd rather not domino and blindly flip Wit if I don't have to, and I think that the vote differences do matter in an E!Wit world with regard to Elim tolerance and where his teammates are likely hiding. (I do have a V!Wit world sketch, but that mostly boils down to 'really last minute, Elims dgaf'.)

Like is there a case in theory for just flipping Wit and confirming? Sort of because it implies which world we're dealing with. But if vote movement analysis can give us a probable answer, maybe it's good to take it. Again my 2022 takeaway from Aman about not needing to necessarily flip every CW if there is some way of getting a read or a likely bead on where the Elims are in the cluster.

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, sure, but any team with both of them on it I think the third elim decides the kill every time. At least on C1 for sure.

Oh, for sure, but then you may as well run NKA to find the third Elim who called the shot, because Araris is a pretty distinctive choice.

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fair  It was the kind of investment where I didn't know which way I was invested.

I was actually referring to JNV camping on Archer - JNV stated a positive read of Aman, camped on Archer, was present for EoD. My take is that JNV not voting defensively or looking in feels a bit odd here because if you have a positive read of Aman and the Archer train isn't going anywhere, why not intervene in this exe? Especially after having done that really long page by page analysis?

Edited to add:

I responded twice I'm sorry I'm tired

Edited November 7, 2023 by Kasimir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

@Kasimir I voted Wit because I didn't like the train against Aman. Archer and Mat were up in the lead and all of a sudden they work together to kill Aman and a bunch of people come out of the woodworks to support that exe, drowning out Archer, Mat, and the temporary Raven push. I voted Wit as the main viable option to Aman at that point and didn't shift because I didn't think moving my vote would make a difference for first or second place (couldn't keep up with the vote count but thought Aman and Wit were clearly ahead). Given that Aman was village and got so much voted on I suspect an elim in the [Archer, Mat, Raven, Wit] set, and at the time also didn't see a strong reason it would be better to shift somewhere else in the hopes of getting someone else an ideal practically or desirably.

[Aeoryi she/her]

17 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

This is where I would say "I told you so" but I completely forgot about it as well so if I say that I have to say it to myself as well xD

Mmm I forgot about that. I can almost understand that, because for me being read village as a villager is of near-equal importance (if not entirely equal) to being read village as an elim. I'm not sure if Wit would have that deep of an understanding of the game yet, though.

With Archer, I don't think he'd fall to three-hour-early elim hypersensitivity. He's too headstrong for that. e!Archer claiming here would have to be a piece of some other plan (like the bulldozing you mentioned) but I don't remember if the chronology works in favor of him thinking that far in advance. With my light v!read of him, though, it's not something I'm considering right now.

Bro half the time I forget what game we're currently playing, there isn't a chance in the world I pull that out of a hat :|. I can look later if you really want but the situation basically was as I described; xino was suspicious so I voted him, suddenly everyone and their dog voted him, I panicked and pulled off, he flipped elim :P.

Quoting this because I think it illustrates a point-- no one had any real idea of what the VC was at any point during the last half hour or so. Sure, people were posting them, but they were either straight-up wrong or rendered out of date within seconds. So I sort of question the value of EoD VC analysis. At least, the analysis that gets in the details. Broad stroke analysis obviously shouldn't be ignored, but I don't think you can rely on assuming that little shifting moves were strategically intentional.

I'll help  JNV

I mean, sure, but any team with both of them on it I think the third elim decides the kill every time. At least on C1 for sure.

This would not surprise me fwiw

Fair  It was the kind of investment where I didn't know which way I was invested.

Forgot to mention this, I did notice it, yeah.

There are two more posts to reveal but I'm posting now as this is already probably terrible on the eyes

Edit: @Aeoryi no need to ask questions to stoke discussion if discussion is happening  

Because @Devotary of Spontaneity and @JNV aren't responding. Or @Ravenclawjedi42, and @witisthebest

So yeah

[Ashbringer he/him]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Ashbringer - you're my NKA guy. Thoughts?

NKA on Araris tends to be either a low-activity kill, or a fear kill from someone who wasn't around for the fear kill meta / discussions on avoiding the fear kill meta. Thing is, that was... a long time ago. Enough that there's a lot of people who don't know about it, and there's enough time that those that do don't think of it as "well we C1'd Araris again". (Speaking of a long time, it's been a long time since I've done this as a Villager...)

Aeoryi Raven TJ Ashbringer Matrim Archer Kasimir STINK JNV Wit Devotary

Not TJ, and I don't think STINK.

Aeoryi Raven Ashbringer Matrim Archer Kasimir JNV Wit Devotary

... gonna be honest, could go a lot of ways from here.

Araris really only went after Mat and Wit. I think Araris wasn't so much as fear-killed as killed as a relatively low-impact but trusted player. My only argument for not-me is that I gave Araris as one of my two-ish Village reads, which isn't solid if objective!Ash is looking at things.

Aeoryi Raven Matrim Archer JNV Wit Devotary

Doesn't seem that much like the e!JNV I remember, but I'm not that much more confident in this.

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Ashbringer, could you expound on this a bit more, please?

Archer said that his opinion on putting trusted players in the 2nd Ideal-gaining vote slot "evolved" over time based on his ability to use vote manip and change the exe result. I can see there being a bit of a conflict there, between a player's natural instinct and the game's incentive to mess with the exe. But I don't see how that would make it change over the course of a cycle.

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

AAAAAAAAA

Not sure what to think of Archer at this point. The logic works, mostly, but I don't know if it works all together.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Aeoryi Raven Matrim Archer JNV Wit Devotary

Why the Devo underline?

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Doesn't seem that much like the e!JNV I remember, but I'm not that much more confident in this.

I would say I think the Devo kill MO connection is stronger, yeah. I do recall two games in which E!JNV's team ganked Araris early but do not believe JNV actively made that call (unsure), and in both of those, you GMed, so yeah that condition ain't working so hot here

My take for the Devo perspective I guess (which I admit could be wrong) comes from our team deciding who to kill in MR59, possibly with a side of having read some of Devo's docs around the time of LG91. She goes quiet for kills where possible, and doesn't like to kill newer or returning players too early. In this game, that nixes a lot of the population and conveniently ends us with the Araris region, since Archer's too noisy for that.

8 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... gonna be honest, could go a lot of ways from here.

Well, that you didn't say in LG96

I assume the Mat and the Wit is on the assumption it's a silencing kill?

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Archer said that his opinion on putting trusted players in the 2nd Ideal-gaining vote slot "evolved" over time based on his ability to use vote manip and change the exe result. I can see there being a bit of a conflict there, between a player's natural instinct and the game's incentive to mess with the exe. But I don't see how that would make it change over the course of a cycle.

Hmmm. @Archer? Care to spell that out a bit more?

10 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Not sure what to think of Archer at this point. The logic works, mostly, but I don't know if it works all together.

At least tonally he's less kayana this cycle, I'll give him that.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Archer and Mat were up in the lead and all of a sudden they work together to kill Aman and a bunch of people come out of the woodworks to support that exe, drowning out Archer, Mat, and the temporary Raven push.

It definitely did grow very fast, yes.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Given that Aman was village and got so much voted on I suspect an elim in the [Archer, Mat, Raven, Wit] set, and at the time also didn't see a strong reason it would be better to shift somewhere else in the hopes of getting someone else an ideal practically or desirably.

Do you believe an Aman CW was opportunistic or a fear push? And which do you believe is the most probable Elim in that set?

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Why the Devo underline?

I would say I think the Devo kill MO connection is stronger, yeah. I do recall two games in which E!JNV's team ganked Araris early but do not believe JNV actively made that call (unsure), and in both of those, you GMed, so yeah that condition ain't working so hot here

My take for the Devo perspective I guess (which I admit could be wrong) comes from our team deciding who to kill in MR59, possibly with a side of having read some of Devo's docs around the time of LG91. She goes quiet for kills where possible, and doesn't like to kill newer or returning players too early. In this game, that nixes a lot of the population and conveniently ends us with the Araris region, since Archer's too noisy for that.

Well, that you didn't say in LG96

I assume the Mat and the Wit is on the assumption it's a silencing kill?

Hmmm. @Archer? Care to spell that out a bit more?

At least tonally he's less kayana this cycle, I'll give him that.

It definitely did grow very fast, yes.

Do you believe an Aman CW was opportunistic or a fear push? And which do you believe is the most probable Elim in that set?

Tbh the floodgates ripped open the moment Raven voted Aman. I still would like to hear more from Raven about why Aman was more sus than Wit. 

I could see Devo voting on wit if e!Devo and e!wit to get that ideal, but Devo and wit e/e seems kinda... Not really the case? I don't know what Devo's Elim playstyle is but it seems odd to have two secluded elims lurking around.

My thoughts on the Araris kill and what provoked it is basically either:

a) they knew something about Araris

Or 

b) they thought something was brewing with Araris.

 

If someone gives me some games to read that Devo was Elim in, I could probably draw a better conclusion.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

My thoughts on the Araris kill and what provoked it is basically either:

a) they knew something about Araris

Or 

b) they thought something was brewing with Araris.

Disagree with this assessment. It's a very unusual kill. He usually doesn't get C1ed because he looks suspicious enough to be MLed. It's definitely partially the case that at least three players were giving him vocal V!reads, but even then, it's still a capital C choice in a field of noisier kills, which means it's functionally more likely to be a low info kill. Noise kills aren't really the norm anyway, and they're typically a bit more telling of certain players, e.g. Mat, Archer, or myself.

8 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I could see Devo voting on wit if e!Devo and e!wit to get that ideal, but Devo and wit e/e seems kinda... Not really the case? I don't know what Devo's Elim playstyle is but it seems odd to have two secluded elims lurking around.

Define secluded?

8 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

If someone gives me some games to read that Devo was Elim in, I could probably draw a better conclusion.

I'm gonna hate this, but off the top of my head, MR59, which includes a side of E!me and E!Archer. If you read AG7, she was Swan there and also Evil but there's a Lot of AG7 content so maybe better not to. Probably Araris's game - LG80 I think? LG74 if you already read it, she was Evil there too. QF66 is the recent short one where she was Evil. MR60 as well.

[Ashbringer he/him]

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why the Devo underline?

Mostly what you said above, it feels more in Devo’s ballpark than the others’. I think JNV or Archer would do something a bit different, Aeoryi seems V and probably would too, and no idea what Raven would do. Wit’s a bit more likely of a silencing kill than Mat, but E!Mat feels more likely to pick a shot on Araris outside of voting.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Mostly what you said above, it feels more in Devo’s ballpark than the others’. I think JNV or Archer would do something a bit different, Aeoryi seems V and probably would too, and no idea what Raven would do. Wit’s a bit more likely of a silencing kill than Mat, but E!Mat feels more likely to pick a shot on Araris outside of voting.

@Matrim's Dice for the record, if you are Evil, which I don't believe at the moment, and you C1ed Araris, I expect a powerpoint slide in the Elim doc on why Araris absolutely had to die C1, thank you  

Hmm, fair for Mat I think, given some of their interactions. Of course, NKA is the thing where you don't look at the reads since this is just kill likelihoods/MOs first I guess.

38 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Doesn't seem that much like the e!JNV I remember, but I'm not that much more confident in this.

What's the E!JNV you remember?

[Aeoryi she/her]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Disagree with this assessment. It's a very unusual kill. He usually doesn't get C1ed because he looks suspicious enough to be MLed. It's definitely partially the case that at least three players were giving him vocal V!reads, but even then, it's still a capital C choice in a field of noisier kills, which means it's functionally more likely to be a low info kill. Noise kills aren't really the norm anyway, and they're typically a bit more telling of certain players, e.g. Mat, Archer, or myself.

Define secluded?

I'm gonna hate this, but off the top of my head, MR59, which includes a side of E!me and E!Archer. If you read AG7, she was Swan there and also Evil but there's a Lot of AG7 content so maybe better not to. Probably Araris's game - LG80 I think? LG74 if you already read it, she was Evil there too. QF66 is the recent short one where she was Evil. MR60 as well.

Like... Not taking part in conversation, and when posting, not really interacting much. Devo's random RP posts are guilty of this. That's what I mean by secluded. Apart from the thread in a way to try and avoid suspicion.

Araris has a colorful history of busing and yeah it would probably be easier to get them Exe'd from an Elim standpoint.

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice for the record, if you are Evil, which I don't believe at the moment, and you C1ed Araris, I expect a powerpoint slide in the Elim doc on why Araris absolutely had to die C1, thank you  

Hmm, fair for Mat I think, given some of their interactions. Of course, NKA is the thing where you don't look at the reads since this is just kill likelihoods/MOs first I guess.

What's the E!JNV you remember?

The E!JNV is much more active. Actually seems game solvy, and posts about 80% more.

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Mostly what you said above, it feels more in Devo’s ballpark than the others’. I think JNV or Archer would do something a bit different, Aeoryi seems V and probably would too, and no idea what Raven would do. Wit’s a bit more likely of a silencing kill than Mat, but E!Mat feels more likely to pick a shot on Araris outside of voting.

Raven just BTW is fairly "go with the flow" when they were in MR65. They liked to vote in the general direction the village was, so a move like saying "wit is less sus than Aman, I'm voting Aman" seems a little strange

 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Aeoryi said:

Like... Not taking part in conversation, and when posting, not really interacting much. Devo's random RP posts are guilty of this. That's what I mean by secluded. Apart from the thread in a way to try and avoid suspicion.

I guess I'll put it this way: Devo's not a control Elim. But yeah, the refs you asked for. Just please don't talk about MR59 to me too much, I really hate my E!games and try to scrub them from memory because they're usual godawful experiences since RL likes to curse me during E!games. I think there's also the option of taking a look at LG73 (I think it's Sart's Rithmatist one, something Nebrask.) 

2 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

The E!JNV is much more active. Actually seems game solvy, and posts about 80% more.

We're not talking about E!JNV's meta here. We're talking about kill MO. That's different.

3 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Raven just BTW is fairly "go with the flow" when they were in MR65. They liked to vote in the general direction the village was, so a move like saying "wit is less sus than Aman, I'm voting Aman" seems a little strange

Yeah but again, we're talking about kill MO here, not general play...

I mean, Raven did sheep Archer though, no? They said they agreed with Archer's Exp argument, so went with Aman.

[Aeoryi she/her]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I guess I'll put it this way: Devo's not a control Elim. But yeah, the refs you asked for. Just please don't talk about MR59 to me too much, I really hate my E!games and try to scrub them from memory because they're usual godawful experiences since RL likes to curse me during E!games. I think there's also the option of taking a look at LG73 (I think it's Sart's Rithmatist one, something Nebrask.) 

We're not talking about E!JNV's meta here. We're talking about kill MO. That's different.

Yeah but again, we're talking about kill MO here, not general play...

I mean, Raven did sheep Archer though, no? They said they agreed with Archer's Exp argument, so went with Aman.

In terms of MO, what exactly are you looking for? Is it like, "This totally seems like a e!Devo move"?

Also, here's the raven post from MR65:

Yyeah, that's true.

 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

In terms of MO, what exactly are you looking for? Is it like, "This totally seems like a e!Devo move"?

We're looking for how players decide NKs specifically and how they think when selecting targets

Like, the E!meta discussion is helpful and I appreciate it but it's a bit orthogonal to what Ash and I were going for here which is just to figure out if this fits anyone's known kill pattern  

3 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Also, here's the raven post from MR65:

Cheers, I'll check it out when I get up!

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Archer (2): JNV, Aeoryi
Mat (3): Raven, Araris, Aman
Raven (1): Kas
JNV (1): Mat
Devo (1): Archer
Nobody (): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ

Vote count was this when Archer claims confidence in v!Mat, suggests killing Aman. Then Aeoryi votes Mat and Aman switches to Raven before Archer and Mat switch to Aman. Hard to imagine Raven is evil without at least one Archer/Mat or maybe Wit, so they're secondary priority. Archer's leaning out of danger from his claim by the time actual votes go on Aman so self-preservation is less likely in his case than in Mat's. Aeoryi's vote bounces around from Mat to Aman to Raven suggesting she isn't invested in any of their survivals. E!Archer should just let Mat take the fall here unless they're teamed. If they are, voting Aman over Raven or me is presumably because Aman was attacking them. E!Mat|Raven|Wit with v!Archer vote Aman opportunistically, with Raven teams obviously avoiding Raven votes.

38 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

She goes quiet for kills where possible, and doesn't like to kill newer or returning players too early.

It's don't kill new or returning players, don't kill people who've been C1'd recently, and avoid killing players who could be exed. I don't think there are players who go out of their way to violate these guidelines. Who would you have killed?

9 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Like... Not taking part in conversation, and when posting, not really interacting much.

My interactions tend to be more passive/reactive but they do happen. That doesn't have anything to do with alignment I just don't work in a vacuum.

[STINK he/him]

This is my post to say that I am getting bad vibes from Ashbringer on a gut level and may look into this more but for the purposes of a clear timeline it is being noted here

[Aeoryi she/her]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

We're looking for how players decide NKs specifically and how they think when selecting targets

Like, the E!meta discussion is helpful and I appreciate it but it's a bit orthogonal to what Ash and I were going for here which is just to figure out if this fits anyone's known kill pattern  

Cheers, I'll check it out when I get up!

Then it might be worth mentioning:

Just because a player would be likely to do it doesn't mean that they will. Any Elim player can kill Araris, and making it look like someone else's thoughts would've just been a bonus.

But yeah. If you were to avoid aiming for new or returning players, archer or Araris look like good targets.

 

7 minutes ago, STINK said:

This is my post to say that I am getting bad vibes from Ashbringer on a gut level and may look into this more but for the purposes of a clear timeline it is being noted here

Hm. 

Yeah. Ashbringer is kinda in a strange position. I'll take a closer look at their posts soon.

8 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Archer (2): JNV, Aeoryi
Mat (3): Raven, Araris, Aman
Raven (1): Kas
JNV (1): Mat
Devo (1): Archer
Nobody (): Devo, Wit, Ash, STINK, TJ

Vote count was this when Archer claims confidence in v!Mat, suggests killing Aman. Then Aeoryi votes Mat and Aman switches to Raven before Archer and Mat switch to Aman. Hard to imagine Raven is evil without at least one Archer/Mat or maybe Wit, so they're secondary priority. Archer's leaning out of danger from his claim by the time actual votes go on Aman so self-preservation is less likely in his case than in Mat's. Aeoryi's vote bounces around from Mat to Aman to Raven suggesting she isn't invested in any of their survivals. E!Archer should just let Mat take the fall here unless they're teamed. If they are, voting Aman over Raven or me is presumably because Aman was attacking them. E!Mat|Raven|Wit with v!Archer vote Aman opportunistically, with Raven teams obviously avoiding Raven votes.

It's don't kill new or returning players, don't kill people who've been C1'd recently, and avoid killing players who could be exed. I don't think there are players who go out of their way to violate these guidelines. Who would you have killed?

My interactions tend to be more passive/reactive but they do happen. That doesn't have anything to do with alignment I just don't work in a vacuum.

I... Don't think an interaction really happened C1. Just saying. 

EDIT: Nevermind yeah there were some comments my bad 

:thonk:

Edited November 7, 2023 by Aeoryi

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It's don't kill new or returning players, don't kill people who've been C1'd recently, and avoid killing players who could be exed. I don't think there are players who go out of their way to violate these guidelines. Who would you have killed?

Theoretically: Aeoryi or Archer (assuming they're V.) If being screwy since my penchant for noise/control kills is known, probably quietly apologise and murder Raven (also if V.) Maybe just shrug and go for Experience to deny the PH. Araris hard no for obvious reasons, you might remember from our E game that Fifth and I sort violated that a bit because practically everyone that game was new or returning so we cried inside and just murdered a returning player early IIRC.

7 minutes ago, STINK said:

This is my post to say that I am getting bad vibes from Ashbringer on a gut level and may look into this more but for the purposes of a clear timeline it is being noted here

What sort of vibes my dude

8 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

E!Mat|Raven|Wit

Which order would you go in terms of likelihood? And are you feeling E!Mat on the basis of the rest of his behaviour?

2 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Just because a player would be likely to do it doesn't mean that they will. Any Elim player can kill Araris, and making it look like someone else's thoughts would've just been a bonus.

But yeah. If you were to avoid aiming for new or returning players, archer or Araris look like good targets.

It doesn't. But it's the same argument about players metascrewing. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they don't. Some metas are more robustly supported, some are not. Sometimes kill MO gets obscured by another teammate, sometimes it does not. As your second sentence notes, possibility doesn't entail plausibility. A Villager's job is not to ascertain what is possible, but to ascertain what is plausible because if you deal in possibilities, Elims will drown you in them until you paranoia lynch to death because you aren't able to order what's likely and what shouldn't be touched until strictly necessary.

4 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I... Don't think an interaction really happened C1. Just saying. 

She got pretty embroiled in the tie/second exe discussion, having instigated it.

[Aeoryi she/her]

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Theoretically: Aeoryi or Archer (assuming they're V.) If being screwy since my penchant for noise/control kills is known, probably quietly apologise and murder Raven (also if V.) Maybe just shrug and go for Experience to deny the PH. Araris hard no for obvious reasons, you might remember from our E game that Fifth and I sort violated that a bit because practically everyone that game was new or returning so we cried inside and just murdered a returning player early IIRC.

What sort of vibes my dude

Which order would you go in terms of likelihood? And are you feeling E!Mat on the basis of the rest of his behaviour?

It doesn't. But it's the same argument about players metascrewing. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they don't. Some metas are more robustly supported, some are not. Sometimes kill MO gets obscured by another teammate, sometimes it does not. As your second sentence notes, possibility doesn't entail plausibility. A Villager's job is not to ascertain what is possible, but to ascertain what is plausible because if you deal in possibilities, Elims will drown you in them until you paranoia lynch to death because you aren't able to order what's likely and what shouldn't be touched until strictly necessary.

She got pretty embroiled in the tie/second exe discussion, having instigated it.

Let's be honest, a Kas kill C1 would be what most people would do. I could see anyone doing it. Same thing with killing me. 

Archer and Raven still have a uncertainty of doubt around them, so in the mind of an Elim they'd be a lower target. If you really were afraid of windrunners, you might kill archer. Or articulate an Archer lynch.

So yeah.

I don't know exactly how Devo thinks but if what your saying is true, an Araris kill would make sense from e!Devo's standpoint.

EDIT: I hope people haven't forgotten that Wit got an ideal. 

Devo

Edited November 7, 2023 by Aeoryi

[Mat he/him]

53 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice for the record, if you are Evil, which I don't believe at the moment, and you C1ed Araris, I expect a powerpoint slide in the Elim doc on why Araris absolutely had to die C1, thank you  

Hmm, fair for Mat I think, given some of their interactions. Of course, NKA is the thing where you don't look at the reads since this is just kill likelihoods/MOs first I guess.

I don’t think e!me kills Araris after how badly I misread and misexed him last game, but idk. Hard to judge.

[Kasimir he/him]

24 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Let's be honest, a Kas kill C1 would be what most people would do. I could see anyone doing it. Same thing with killing me. 

I did expect it, yeah, as did Araris, which is why he hoovered me to try to get his Ideal. My not getting actually hit was a surprise to me.

26 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

If you really were afraid of windrunners, you might kill archer. Or articulate an Archer lynch.

Yeah, fair. Basically this game does have a penalty, which is that if you pick wrong, your target now swears an Ideal so failing to kill matters more.

26 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I don't know exactly how Devo thinks but if what your saying is true, an Araris kill would make sense from e!Devo's standpoint.

I think she's the better fit here. I do think the stability of her vote does also suggest low investment or a clarity that I think basically both of us were lacking in the grand hopping spree, which doesn't seem quite right to me either. I think Devo's main alternative team at this juncture is E!Mat/E!Raven/E!Wit as articulated with Mat and Archer interchangeable but I V!read Mat more so that's not helpful to me. 

I will say Devo's legendary for only being caught via mech as the last Elim standing as she's more often than not very, very difficult to read.

27 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

EDIT: I hope people haven't forgotten that Wit got an ideal. 

Nope, but I'd rather not focus an exe on him as I don't think he's as good a shot as some other Elim candidates. I am willing to see a V!Wit world even if I question whether he is playing FNG. In a V!Wit world, granted he's lolrandom enough I have concerns, but I absolutely refuse to exe or get a RB a V!player just in case they use abilities in a way that harms the Village, so if he's Village, that's good enough for me.

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don’t think e!me kills Araris after how badly I misread and misexed him last game, but idk. Hard to judge.

I mean I don't really believe E!you at this point but. I expect a powerpoint in that world! At least a powerpoint!