Long Game 97: Midnight Whimsy

[Araris Valerian he/him]

9 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

...did you miss the part where there was no exe? Trying really hard to understand where you're coming from. 

We are getting the exe right now. It's D3 and we are on our third exe, so nothing has been lost. On the flip side, it's D3 and there has only been a single elim kill, which is one less than we'd expect. If the complaint thingy is the sole mechanic responsible for this (which I somewhat doubt), then we should 100% be taking advantage of it.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

I think you're making an additional connection here that shouldn't be made. The missing elim kill very well could have been for another reason unrelated to complaints. I understand what you mean now though, thanks.

[Mat he/him]

Gah

Mark

@Araris Valerian why did you v read him again?

[Mark IV he/him]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I am fighting a gut e read on Mark primarily because I don’t think it’s helpful but it is there I guess. I wish he’d stop voting a dead villager, mainly.

Oh, I kinda .. forgot about that vote. DeTess. My bad.

Speaking of gut reads, I cannot shake the feeling that at least one of Mat or Araris ought to be elim. If I list of the players, we have left:

1. TKN
2. Mat
3. Araris
4. Aeoryi
5. JNV
6. Mark
7. Frustration
8. Stink

And no confirmed elims so far. So, the elims (if they even exist, because idk how this thing works anymore) have to be from this group of people....

---------------

I was going to go on to give an explanation of why I think at least one of Araris or Mat ought to be elims (cause active and old players etc) but I'm starting to think it's possible none of us are elims. If I take some interpretive liberty, we have, from the LG OP:

Quote

Factions:

Affected - ???. One of them can use an action to kill another player every Night turn. They win when they can’t possibly be defeated.

Non-Affected - You win when all of the Affected have been defeated.

Notice the Affected win condition is that they win if they can't possibly be defeated. Not, "if they outnumber the village". @Szeth_Pancakes can the Affected win without reaching parity? My theory is that we're possibly making elims as the game progresses. My first guess would be that dying in a certain manner (exe vs night kill) could possibly flip your alignment. Notice that even if someone's dead, they're still technically in the game. I'd be interested in trying to complain out one person killed by the day vote and one person killed at night (there is only one, I believe?). We have eight people. Worst case, we'd at least ideally be able to complain out 1 person for sure. 

---------------

That aside, though, if I stick to the narrative that 

• complaints have no special role apart from a group kill
• OOG objects that people have don't have a role to play
• There's very little to discover about hidden mechanics in this blackout game

and try to figure out who the elims are in the poeple remaining alive, I can't shake the feeling that at least one of Mat or Araris has to be elim. The other teams just don't make sense to me (I can discard possible teams with me in them cause I know I'm not elim, just saying). 

I'm gonna do a post-by-post analysis of one of them (cause I don't have the energy for both). Let's see what that yields. 

-------------------

All that aside, would anyone like to try complaining at Exp?

Edit:

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Gah

Mark

@Araris Valerian why did you v read him again?

Can't say I didn't have it coming, but yeah, if this is exelo (it is exelo this time, right?) then I'm gonna have to fight it. Give me a bit. 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Mark IV
Response to Dice & some typos

[Araris Valerian he/him]

12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Gah

Mark

@Araris Valerian why did you v read him again?

Honestly, not sure. He had a point about DeTess passing investiture that I liked, but upon further review, I could get behind an exe on him. I think whoever we exe today should be someone that voted on Archer, since Archer is a threatening player and I think the elims would jump at a chance to vote him out.

I will say that the post immediately above mine doesn’t seem to come from an elim mindset.

Also, Mat, have you laid out a case against me? Anything other than “he was inactive C1-C2”?

[Aeoryi she/her]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’ve got a complaint on Frustration, anyone who wants can feel free to join me.

Sure. Haven't used any successfully yet.

Frustration is one of my biggest suspects and I think a complaint kill on him is fine.

33 minutes ago, Mark IV said:

Oh, I kinda .. forgot about that vote. DeTess. My bad.

Speaking of gut reads, I cannot shake the feeling that at least one of Mat or Araris ought to be elim. If I list of the players, we have left:

1. TKN
2. Mat
3. Araris
4. Aeoryi
5. JNV
6. Mark
7. Frustration
8. Stink

And no confirmed elims so far. So, the elims (if they even exist, because idk how this thing works anymore) have to be from this group of people....

---------------

I was going to go on to give an explanation of why I think at least one of Araris or Mat ought to be elims (cause active and old players etc) but I'm starting to think it's possible none of us are elims. If I take some interpretive liberty, we have, from the LG OP:

Notice the Affected win condition is that they win if they can't possibly be defeated. Not, "if they outnumber the village". @Szeth_Pancakes can the Affected win without reaching parity? My theory is that we're possibly making elims as the game progresses. My first guess would be that dying in a certain manner (exe vs night kill) could possibly flip your alignment. Notice that even if someone's dead, they're still technically in the game. I'd be interested in trying to complain out one person killed by the day vote and one person killed at night (there is only one, I believe?). We have eight people. Worst case, we'd at least ideally be able to complain out 1 person for sure. 

---------------

That aside, though, if I stick to the narrative that 

• complaints have no special role apart from a group kill
• OOG objects that people have don't have a role to play
• There's very little to discover about hidden mechanics in this blackout game

and try to figure out who the elims are in the poeple remaining alive, I can't shake the feeling that at least one of Mat or Araris has to be elim. The other teams just don't make sense to me (I can discard possible teams with me in them cause I know I'm not elim, just saying). 

I'm gonna do a post-by-post analysis of one of them (cause I don't have the energy for both). Let's see what that yields. 

-------------------

All that aside, would anyone like to try complaining at Exp?

Edit:

Can't say I didn't have it coming, but yeah, if this is exelo (it is exelo this time, right?) then I'm gonna have to fight it. Give me a bit. 

I don't think that dead people are becoming elims.

Reasons:

- this is not flipless. Making a blackout game flipless without warning is definitely cruel, and considering the warnings posted on LG92 (this was basically "dont join it will be frustrating" as a safety measure by the IM) and judging by the IM squad's views on flipless + blackout this is not going to be similar to flipless, considering that incorrect flips are even more cruel than blackout flipless

- it would be unfair with such a low quantity of players. Self explanatory.

Also, the wincon points are good. 

 

[Mat he/him]

Nah okay Mark, Araris

27 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, Mat, have you laid out a case against me? Anything other than “he was inactive C1-C2”?

I don't think so. I guess I should do that. Shorthand version is that you flew completely under the radar for the first few cycles, playing as minimally as possible, and only started ramping up in content after I called you out on it. While the content is good, I think you've been fairly openminded as far as exe candidates go, and not in a good way-- I'm thinking of things like your previous post, where you walked back your v read of Mark to signal you would vote there only after I did first. Additionally, that post where you analyzed the VCs felt contrived and forced, I didn't think the conclusions you presented fit the data. And you've been pushing for a complaint vote today, an action that, if unsuccessful, may result in an immediate village loss.

2 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Sure. Haven't used any successfully yet.

Frustration is one of my biggest suspects and I think a complaint kill on him is fine.

See above. I don't think killing multiple people today is a good idea when we're not sure about anyone. Killing two people wrong is likely an instant loss.

One of your biggest suspects? Never mentioned that before :P.

[Aeoryi she/her]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Nah okay Mark, Araris

I don't think so. I guess I should do that. Shorthand version is that you flew completely under the radar for the first few cycles, playing as minimally as possible, and only started ramping up in content after I called you out on it. While the content is good, I think you've been fairly openminded as far as exe candidates go, and not in a good way-- I'm thinking of things like your previous post, where you walked back your v read of Mark to signal you would vote there only after I did first. Additionally, that post where you analyzed the VCs felt contrived and forced, I didn't think the conclusions you presented fit the data. And you've been pushing for a complaint vote today, an action that, if unsuccessful, may result in an immediate village loss.

See above. I don't think killing multiple people today is a good idea when we're not sure about anyone. Killing two people wrong is likely an instant loss.

One of your biggest suspects? Never mentioned that before :P.

Cause I forgot frustration existed this cycle.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Cause I forgot frustration existed this cycle.

You forgot one of your biggest suspects existed?

[STINK he/him]

We've all been there tbf

[Araris Valerian he/him]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Nah okay Mark, Araris

I don't think so. I guess I should do that. Shorthand version is that you flew completely under the radar for the first few cycles, playing as minimally as possible, and only started ramping up in content after I called you out on it. While the content is good, I think you've been fairly openminded as far as exe candidates go, and not in a good way-- I'm thinking of things like your previous post, where you walked back your v read of Mark to signal you would vote there only after I did first. Additionally, that post where you analyzed the VCs felt contrived and forced, I didn't think the conclusions you presented fit the data. And you've been pushing for a complaint vote today, an action that, if unsuccessful, may result in an immediate village loss.

See above. I don't think killing multiple people today is a good idea when we're not sure about anyone. Killing two people wrong is likely an instant loss.

One of your biggest suspects? Never mentioned that before :P.

iOS yo have a bunch of observations about my play, and I’m assuming you think all of these things are elim indicative. But are they? I’ve said my low engagement early on was due to the nature of the game. Take that or leave it I suppose. Have you observed e!me spiking in activity after prompting from a villager in the past?

I’m doing the best I can without any red flips. That means, to some extent, re-evaluating people. I’m not going crazy like a certain bro, but I have reread the thread a couple times (probably more than anyone else except you and maybe Aeoryi). 

I discussed the complaint thing with you in our PM. Unless you are 100% confident we are exeing an elim, the math checks out in favor of the village.

And I wouldn’t mind you going exactly what you didn’t like about my earlier posts (which conclusions don’t fit the data, etc.). Might get some other folks to read them and give their thoughts. The only way that was “forced” was in the “hey, it’s ExLo, I’d better figure out what’s going on” way.

[Mark IV he/him]

Quote

I was going to say that I was actually actually finally village but the wording of my PM makes me think this is a faction game so idk

Maybe I’m reading too much into things

Edit: Szeth the entire point of blackout is that we don’t know how to play the game :|

Mat, what did you think your faction was and what made you realise it wasn't a faction game? I never felt there was any ambiguity my role/alignment description. 

------------------

That's literally all I got (it's well past my bed time now :/ ). Apart from that fact that most of Mat's posts seem much more like a v!Mat trying to get people to participate and trying to figure things out rather than an e!Mat trying to misdirect the village. Of course, it could be an e!Mat trying to get people to participate, but I'd rather leave that possibility suspended for the moment. 

That leaves Araris. I'm really starting to suspect Araris isn't elim either, but given my strong village read on Aeoryi, assuming Araris and Mat aren't elim leaves TKN, JNV, Frustration & Stink. Which doesn't exactly feel like an entire elim team. 

-------------------

That aside, I'm going to try complaining at Exp. At the very least, if I survive the day, I can ask the GM if my complaint was used up. If it was, then it seems promising that dead players are complain-able. Which would mean they were still in the game, which would likely mean they still have a role to play. On that note, I wonder if we really managed to complain Szeth out? Cause there was no removed announcement in that turn's writeup. 

Edit: Anyone who wants to try complaining at Exp with me, feel free to do so. Apparently Frustration also has a complaint from Araris,  and TKN is also an unlynched player from the "last" turn. 

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Mark IV
Last minute thoughts

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Hmm. I definitely didn’t come into this cycle thinking I’d be an exe candidate. Well, maybe there are just 2 elims so that I can 1) not feel too bad about dying and 2) laugh at y’all from the dead doc.

[Aeoryi she/her]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You forgot one of your biggest suspects existed?

Yes. Too much irl stress to keep track of where frustration is.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

4 hours ago, Mark IV said:

@Szeth_Pancakes can the Affected win without reaching parity?

PAFO.

[Mat he/him]

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

iOS yo have a bunch of observations about my play, and I’m assuming you think all of these things are elim indicative. But are they? I’ve said my low engagement early on was due to the nature of the game. Take that or leave it I suppose. Have you observed e!me spiking in activity after prompting from a villager in the past?

I dunno, but that wasn't my main point. It also was partially just me not understanding how a player of your caliber could legitimately have zero reads going into exlo-- like, you said that, and I kind of just don't believe it, blackout or no.

As for the rest, yes, I do see those things as alignment indicative. Elims like to keep their options as open as possible. You've definitely been doing that.

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m doing the best I can without any red flips. That means, to some extent, re-evaluating people. I’m not going crazy like a certain bro, but I have reread the thread a couple times (probably more than anyone else except you and maybe Aeoryi). 

Sure, but Mark didn't look like an honest reevaluation. You had an unexplained village read on him, but that became virtually irrelevant the moment I voted him. I don't think you can claim your Mark read changed directly because you reread the thread and changed your mind, or at least it didn't sound like that's what you did.

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I discussed the complaint thing with you in our PM. Unless you are 100% confident we are exeing an elim, the math checks out in favor of the village.

I don't quite agree with that, and I can spin it back-- unless you are 100% confident we are complaining an elim, the village loses the game. A misexe here leaves a night turn where anything can happen. There's a whole IRL element to this game we don't know about yet. Time travel happened. RBers and protectors exist. A night turn is better than no night turn every time.

Plus, nine times out of ten, math is an elim tell :P. This is a proven ratio tbh and is completely foolproof. (At least, I certainly have used math as an elim to push for something).

The only point in your favor here is that, theoretically, a 3 man team wouldn't need to get the village on board to complain, but maybe it's not a 3 man team. Maybe the elims know something about complaints we don't. There's too much ambiguity for that to be a strong reason to v read you doing something I think is elim sided.

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

And I wouldn’t mind you going exactly what you didn’t like about my earlier posts (which conclusions don’t fit the data, etc.). Might get some other folks to read them and give their thoughts. The only way that was “forced” was in the “hey, it’s ExLo, I’d better figure out what’s going on” way.

I mean, I kind of already did that, in my initial response to that post.

Sorry this post was late in coming. Had things to do.

[JNV]

Ack I had a post and the Shard ate it ack theres no time left anyway to summarize the post that got eaten Araris[/b] honestly I dont really know Im just kinda hoping things turn out ok cause Im kinda in a state of constant confusion

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

The cycle has ended! Please cease posting.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

hahahahahahahhaahahahahahahahhahahah hehehehehe :O :} :P

*ahem*

Y'all are trespassing on dangerous territory! Haha. No one's coming to save you. No one's coming to save you. No one--

*skrrch* 

u NEEDS to try AGAIN try AGAIN try SOMETHING difrint WHIMSY you are dense UGH (i dont mean to COMPLAIN but) I'm getting SO TIRED SO TIRED SO TIRED SO TIRED hahaha okay

okay

LG97 Day Three: All That You Ever Wanted From Me Was Sweet Nothing

...

-------------

Nothing happened!

The turn ends at 5:30 PM PDT on Wednesday, October 18. 

Players:

Spoiler

1. @The Known Novel - Cain Abbel
2. Experience: Not Affected
3. @Matrim's Dice
4. @Araris Valerian - Whamsy, who ran into a wall really hard one day, “WHAM!” and now thinks he’s a shard.
5. @Aeoryi - AMBITION, who ran into a wall really hard one day and now believes she is a shard.
6. DeTess (removed): Not Affected
7. Devotary of Spontaneity - Calephor, a Mage of House Azalea: Not Affected
8. Archer - Aschu the Blessed: Non-Affected Fighter
9. @JNV - Jellin
10. @Mark IV - Mark
11. @Frustration
12. @STINK

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Szeth_Pancakes

[Aeoryi she/her]

8 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

hahahahahahahhaahahahahahahahhahahah hehehehehe :}

*ahem*

Y'all are trespassing on dangerous territory! Haha. No one's coming to save you. No one's coming to save you. No one--

*skrrch* 

u NEEDS to try AGAIN try AGAIN try SOMETHING difrint WHIMSY you are dense UGH (i dont mean to COMPLAIN but) I'm getting SO TIRED SO TIRED SO TIRED SO TIRED hahaha okay

okay

LG97 Day Three: All That You Ever Wanted From Me Was Sweet Nothing

...

-------------

Nothing happened!

The turn ends at 5:30 PM PDT on Thursday, October 19. 

Players:

  Reveal hidden contents

1. @The Known Novel - Cain Abbel
2. Experience: Not Affected
3. @Matrim's Dice
4. @Araris Valerian - Whamsy, who ran into a wall really hard one day, “WHAM!” and now thinks he’s a shard.
5. @Aeoryi - AMBITION, who ran into a wall really hard one day and now believes she is a shard.
6. DeTess (removed): Not Affected
7. Devotary of Spontaneity - Calephor, a Mage of House Azalea: Not Affected
8. Archer - Aschu the Blessed: Non-Affected Fighter
9. @JNV - Jellin
10. @Mark IV - Mark
11. @Frustration
12. @STINK

 

Love to see it love to see it 

Are we still denied a VC?

EDIT: bolded letters spell:

H e l p d o n ' t t r u s t a n y t h I n g I s a y

Help don't trust anything I say

OH!

Edited October 18, 2023 by Aeoryi

[Frustration he/him]

The red letters spell out: Help dnt trust anything I say.

I'm assuming there was supposed to be an o there.

So, maybe someone did die?

[Aeoryi she/her]

15 minutes ago, Frustration said:

The red letters spell out: Help dnt trust anything I say.

I'm assuming there was supposed to be an o there.

So, maybe someone did die?

@Matrim's Dice did you die

@JNV did you die

@Archer did you die

@DeTess did you die

@STINK did you die

@The Known Novel did you die 

@Araris Valerian did you die

@Mark IV did you die

@Experience did you die

@Devotary of Spontaneity did you die

@Aeoryi did not die

 

Couple things to notice:

- don't trust anything Szeth says.

- I still have one charge of investiture, despite being told I tended the tree again

- if the elims complaint anyone then the timer must supercede the frozen cycle

- Exe'd don't do anything now

- RP driven play is encouraged

- Elims don't explicitly win when they achieve parity with the village. In fact, it's not even an Elim faction. We don't know if it even is, or if it's just the GM being crazy

- The game seems awfully non-blackout like, expect hidden mechanics.

- the last cycle was a night cycle

EDIT: 

We should probably come up with theories of what the heck this game is instead of simply pointing fingers at each other and blaming one and another.

Roleclaims would be nice.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Aeoryi

[Mat he/him]

no

stop

i

cant

szeth

do

this

again

:|

[Aeoryi she/her]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

no

stop

i

cant

szeth

do

this

again

:|

I Had enough of This GamE please let's just vote the GM now and move on.

SZETH PANCAKES

[Mat he/him]

Actual post:

20 minutes ago, Frustration said:

So, maybe someone did die?

What makes you say that?

14 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

- if the elims complaint anyone then the timer must supercede the frozen cycle

Assumption alert! Not a proven fact! We have NO idea :D. :D. :D.

15 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

- Elims don't explicitly win when they achieve parity with the village. In fact, it's not even an Elim faction. We don't know if it even is, or if it's just the GM being crazy

..What does that even mean? Of course it is. It's red. Our wincon is killing them. That's an elim faction.

15 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

- The game seems awfully non-blackout like, expect hidden mechanics.

That is the definition of blackout, actually :P.

16 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

We should probably come up with theories of what the heck this game is instead of simply pointing fingers at each other and blaming one and another.

Yes but also reads and finger pointing and blaming is the whole pooooooint

16 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Roleclaims would be nice.

ONLY if it's a role not specifically mentioned in the known rules. RBers and protectors, do not claim.

@Frustration what did you claim I forgot :p.