Long Game 97: Midnight Whimsy

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Well that certainly happened. Actually, did it happen? I guess this kinda works out. Still at two Investiture for what it's worth.

[Mat he/him]

24 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Edit: Would definitely be great if someone could claim the role that caused that.

Point: We don’t know it was a role

[Aeoryi she/her]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Point: We don’t know it was a role

People! Good news!

Apparently (according to our slightly confusing GM) this D3 will count!

So vote wisely!

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Yeah, for all we know this could be like Fifth's Alice game, where the rules just change randomly. But if it was a role, then knowing would help. Seems like a village-sided role, in the sense that we get all the info of an exe (minus the flip) without losing anyone. Not sure why the elims would want to trigger something like that if they had the ability to.

Also, knowing DeTess's alignment is useful. I had slowly backed off of her last cycle but wasn't really sure. 

Here's some updated VC stuff (removing all my reads):

Spoiler

D1:
Experience (3): DeTess, Aeoryi, Devotary
Szeth (2): Archer, JNV
DeTess (2): Mark, Matrim
Archer (1): Experience
Aeoryi (1): Frustration
Mark (1): Araris

D2:
Araris (1): DeTess
TKN (1): Matrim 
DeTess (1): Frustration
Archer (3): Stink, TKN, Mark
Szeth_Pancakes (2): Archer, Aeoryi
Aeoryi (1): Araris

D3 [1]:
TKN (4): DeTess, Araris, Mark, Aeoryi
DeTess (1): Frustration
Stink (1): TKN
Araris (1): Mat

@Matrim's Dice, what's the deal with your last minute vote-swap? It was pretty obviously pointless.

Also, we are back at ExLo. And I'm back at Aeoryi. I feel pretty decent about Mark and that leaves Aeoryi as the only possible elim on both the D1 and D3 leading trains. I could exe TKN again as well but feel like we should use the extra 48 hours since we have them.

Edit: I think one of Aeoryi/Mat is elim or the voting in this game is just really whacko

Edited October 16, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[Aeoryi she/her]

8 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, for all we know this could be like Fifth's Alice game, where the rules just change randomly. But if it was a role, then knowing would help. Seems like a village-sided role, in the sense that we get all the info of an exe (minus the flip) without losing anyone. Not sure why the elims would want to trigger something like that if they had the ability to.

Also, knowing DeTess's alignment is useful. I had slowly backed off of her last cycle but wasn't really sure. 

Here's some updated VC stuff (removing all my reads):

  Reveal hidden contents

D1:
Experience (3): DeTess, Aeoryi, Devotary
Szeth (2): Archer, JNV
DeTess (2): Mark, Matrim
Archer (1): Experience
Aeoryi (1): Frustration
Mark (1): Araris

D2:
Araris (1): DeTess
TKN (1): Matrim 
DeTess (1): Frustration
Archer (3): Stink, TKN, Mark
Szeth_Pancakes (2): Archer, Aeoryi
Aeoryi (1): Araris

D3 [1]:
TKN (4): DeTess, Araris, Mark, Aeoryi
DeTess (1): Frustration
Stink (1): TKN
Araris (1): Mat

@Matrim's Dice, what's the deal with your last minute vote-swap? It was pretty obviously pointless.

Also, we are back at ExLo. And I'm back at Aeoryi. I feel pretty decent about Mark and that leaves Aeoryi as the only possible elim on both the D1 and D3 leading trains. I could exe TKN again as well but feel like we should use the extra 48 hours since we have them.

Edit: I think one of Aeoryi/Mat is elim or the voting in this game is just really whacko

You make very good points. Araris Valerian Aeoryi 

So we are at exlo unless elims don't exist 

[Mat he/him]

29 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Mat, what's the deal with your last minute vote-swap? It was pretty obviously pointless.

Also, we are back at ExLo. And I'm back at Aeoryi. I feel pretty decent about Mark and that leaves Aeoryi as the only possible elim on both the D1 and D3 leading trains. I could exe TKN again as well but feel like we should use the extra 48 hours since we have them.

Edit: I think one of Aeoryi/Mat is elim or the voting in this game is just really whacko

Staying on TKN was also pointless. I was curious if anyone would bite my line. No one did though.

I think you're making out the voting to be a lot weirder than it is. In a super tight train on a D1, an all-green lead makes sense. D2's lead train voters are all still alive. And you're on the D3 one, and at least to me Mark hasn't done anything near as clearing as Aeoryi has (I use the word 'clear' lightly, it's not literal, I really just don't think Aeoryi is elim and I've been right every time I've said that so far /shrug)

I also don't think that exeing TKN again is a waste of time, as you imply it to be. We didn't actually exe him :P. Discussion can still happen though ofc

Edit: Also like if the self voting doesn't stop I don't even know

I feel like that one is a joke but this is an actual SE trigger point for me lol

Edited October 16, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Mark IV he/him]

Maybe DeTess is also viable? I wonder what she's up to rn.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Mark IV said:

Maybe DeTess is also viable? I wonder what she's up to rn.

Bro DeTess is gone, exed out, not tagged in the OP, nothing  Even if she can still interact with the game, I don't think we can interact with her

Plus she flipped green so like what are you even doing voting her lol

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Staying on TKN was also pointless. I was curious if anyone would bite my line. No one did though.

I think you're making out the voting to be a lot weirder than it is. In a super tight train on a D1, an all-green lead makes sense. D2's lead train voters are all still alive. And you're on the D3 one, and at least to me Mark hasn't done anything near as clearing as Aeoryi has (I use the word 'clear' lightly, it's not literal, I really just don't think Aeoryi is elim and I've been right every time I've said that so far /shrug)

I also don't think that exeing TKN again is a waste of time, as you imply it to be. We didn't actually exe him :P. Discussion can still happen though ofc

Edit: Also like if the self voting doesn't stop I don't even know

I feel like that one is a joke but this is an actual SE trigger point for me lol

VC is:

Aeoryi (2): Araris Valerian, Aeoryi

TKN (1): Mat

Detess (1): Mark 

I know I know but a true villager would bus themselves a true Elim would never bus themselves but instead bus others. Probably.

Just now, Mark IV said:

Maybe DeTess is also viable? I wonder what she's up to rn.

Try lodging a complaint against her first. Good chance that's like throwing your vote down the drain.

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Bro DeTess is gone, exed out, not tagged in the OP, nothing  Even if she can still interact with the game, I don't think we can interact with her

Plus she flipped green so like what are you even doing voting her lol

I mean but how reliable are these flips?

[Mark IV he/him]

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

• DeTess (removed): Not Affected
• Devotary of Spontaneity - Calephor, a Mage of House Azalea: Not Affected
• Archer - Aschu the Blessed: Non-Affected Fighter

Idk about you, but DeTess' entry clearly reads differently than the others, no? 

I played a game where someone's (Aman's, obviously) alignment changed when we got him back from the dead. I wouldn't be surprised if DeTess had something similar happen to her. Especially after she was removed from the game. Rude 

Edit: You guys do have a point in that voting for DeTess right now won't be helpful though. DeTess.

Edited October 16, 2023 by Mark IV
Unvote

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Aeoryi said:

I mean but how reliable are these flips?

If they're not reliable, then we may be doing better than we think, but I'm also asking for a PHer to get the heck out of this game. So that had really better not be the case :P.

Just now, Mark IV said:

Idk about you, but DeTess' entry clearly reads differently than the others, no? 

I played a game where someone's (Aman's, obviously) alignment changed when we got him back from the dead. I wouldn't be surprised if DeTess had something similar happen to her. Especially after she was removed from the game. Rude 

The only difference is the word 'removed'. We think that means she was removed by complaints and not the exe or elim kill. Either way that looks pretty dead, and that's quite the stretch to justify voting a dead villager when we don't actually have indication that her alignment changed or that we can get her back.

[Aeoryi she/her]

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If they're not reliable, then we may be doing better than we think, but I'm also asking for a PHer to get the heck out of this game. So that had really better not be the case :P.

The only difference is the word 'removed'. We think that means she was removed by complaints and not the exe or elim kill. Either way that looks pretty dead, and that's quite the stretch to justify voting a dead villager when we don't actually have indication that her alignment changed or that we can get her back.

Can you vote on me so that way I can finally understand this game is so frustrating

 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

53 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I also don't think that exeing TKN again is a waste of time, as you imply it to be. We didn't actually exe him :P. Discussion can still happen though ofc

Sorry, that’s not what I meant. I was bringing up Aeoryi’s voting as an additional point of discussion for the extra time we have today. If we all just revoted TKN then we’d probably end up wasting most of the day. All the reasons folks had for voting him last cycle are still valid and, like I said, I’m still fine with exeing him.

I think you’re being too dismissive of Aeoryi’s voting, and I’d like to hear what other people think about it. In other words, do folks expect the elims to have some presence on the leading trains, and if so, how does that impact your read on Aeoryi, given the flips we have so far?

Edited October 16, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[Aeoryi she/her]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Sorry, that’s not what I meant. I was bringing up Aeoryi’s voting as an additional point of discussion for the extra time we have today. If we all just revolted TKN then we’d probably end up wasting most of the day. All the reasons folks had for voting him last cycle are still valid and, like I said, I’m still fine with exeing him.

I think you’re being too dismissive of Aeoryi’s voting, and I’d like to hear what other people think about it. In other words, do folks expect the elims to have some presence on the leading trains, and if so, how does that impact your read on Aeoryi, given the flips we have so far?

I know I know at least I wasn't trynna get DeTess exe'd all cycle (who flipped green) so hey look at that

My voting is strange but literally the most random cream you'll find in the final empire. Most of it is motivated by my external meta-game goal :eyes:

Why do you think that elims live in the trains with the most people? Imo they don't they probably vote on eachother to do the social distancing and whatnot

I'm still confused at what killing me does.

If I flip green, mat is basically confirmed v and Araris becomes confirmed E (basically). Mat gets NK'd, you get Exe'd d4 should the time paradox break. Mark immediately becomes less sus?

If I flip red, mat gets exe'd on the hypothetical D4 and Araris is still sus because we all know who the bus driver is. Some certain people gain V! Or E! Cred, mostly minor

Either way: you gain nothing on TKN (e!TKN is probably cackling rn), JNV probably won't post for a few days, and STINK remains in the shadows. The people we more or less need reads on.

So make your choice.

I doubt it will benefit you in any way, or the village

[Araris Valerian he/him]

None of that “if I flip green” stuff matters. If you flip green the village loses. I also don’t like how you have me as elim in all possible worlds. I’m okay at mafia but I definitely make mistakes, which is why I’m specifically asking for input from other players.

In terms of the voting stuff, it’s just a trend I’ve observed.

Also, in the case you are a villager, have you considered the world where Mat is an elim that’s pocketing you? Something very similar happened in my game on MU last year; there was a villager playing erratically and one of the elims was fiercely defending them. I’m somewhat disconcerted by how confidently Mat is v!reading you.

[Mat he/him]

29 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think you’re being too dismissive of Aeoryi’s voting, and I’d like to hear what other people think about it. In other words, do folks expect the elims to have some presence on the leading trains, and if so, how does that impact your read on Aeoryi, given the flips we have so far?

I'm dismissive of it because I think they're village. I don't think the elims necessarily have to hold a presence on the leading trains-- look at them. All on villagers. Every day, except yesterday, theoretically. Countertrains included. The elims don't need to hold a presence; the villagers are doing a fine job killing themselves.

Edit:

18 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I'm still confused at what killing me does.

If I flip green, mat is basically confirmed v and Araris becomes confirmed E (basically). Mat gets NK'd, you get Exe'd d4 should the time paradox break. Mark immediately becomes less sus?

So why are you self voting? Doing it to make you look less sus won't work.

So why are you self voting? For what it's worth, I don't think v!you guarantees anything about anyone, Araris or I or otherwise.

Edit2: Cmon Araris :P. e!me would not be trying to drive discussion this hard, even if he should be.

Edited October 16, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[JNV]

@Aeoryi if you dont want to play anymore you can just ask for a pinchhitter you know thats kinda what theyre for

[Aeoryi she/her]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm dismissive of it because I think they're village. I don't think the elims necessarily have to hold a presence on the leading trains-- look at them. All on villagers. Every day, except yesterday, theoretically. Countertrains included. The elims don't need to hold a presence; the villagers are doing a fine job killing themselves.

Edit:

So why are you self voting? Doing it to make you look less sus won't work.

So why are you self voting? For what it's worth, I don't think v!you guarantees anything about anyone, Araris or I or otherwise.

Edit2: Cmon Araris :P. e!me would not be trying to drive discussion this hard, even if he should be.

self voting does two things:

1. Discourages aeoryi from being voted so easily without thought for village, encourages it for elims

2. Gives you more thread control when a train does arrise. Just look at Exp. Got absolutely baited. Either way, il give examples

 aeoryi (2): araris, aeoryi

araris (1): mat

and then... BOOM!

aeoryi (1): araris

araris (2): aeoryi mat

look at that and even if araris lives it still looks bad on him

the strats are real

plus, voting erratically like I am and being generally unpredictable makes you easy to set up. This means elims keep you around for longer (free mislynch???) and that's cool

and when you have an (relatively) unimportant role like mine you can claim without much preassure since being nk'd isn't the best option for elims to take

it's all intentional i swear just ask archer 

so self voting has not been dumb. the strats are real

14 minutes ago, JNV said:

@Aeoryi if you dont want to play anymore you can just ask for a pinchhitter you know thats kinda what theyre for

i am hanging onto this game by just a thread. Asking for a ph would be undoing all the wonderful setup I did.

ofc i'll prob be nkd anyways for saying this

28 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

None of that “if I flip green” stuff matters. If you flip green the village loses. I also don’t like how you have me as elim in all possible worlds. I’m okay at mafia but I definitely make mistakes, which is why I’m specifically asking for input from other players.

In terms of the voting stuff, it’s just a trend I’ve observed.

Also, in the case you are a villager, have you considered the world where Mat is an elim that’s pocketing you? Something very similar happened in my game on MU last year; there was a villager playing erratically and one of the elims was fiercely defending them. I’m somewhat disconcerted by how confidently Mat is v!reading you.

Alright. mat is elim i am shooting myself in the foot

train stuff i mean look tkn was ded anyways i was just finalizing that 

u rnt elim in evry single world just you prob get exe'd i m find w/ that .-.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Aeoryi said:

My voting is strange but literally the most random cream you'll find in the final empire. Most of it is motivated by my external meta-game goal :eyes:

Why do you think that elims live in the trains with the most people? Imo they don't they probably vote on eachother to do the social distancing and whatnot

You know you need to get back on the meds when JNV sounds more coherent than you.

[Mat he/him]

Aeoryi that almost makes sense but I will never like self voting; as long as you know what you're doing I guess it's fine? Whatever I guess

Elims don't feel pressured if you're voting yourself. They may if you're voting them /shrug

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Edit2: Cmon Araris :P. e!me would not be trying to drive discussion this hard, even if he should be.

Sorry man, I have too much respect for your elim play to discount the option entirely. Though if you are elim, you’ve done an excellent job and probably deserve to win.

Honestly I just want some input from folks that aren’t you/Aeoryi. The three of us talking in circles can only accomplish so much, and I think I’m nearing the limit of the fruitful analysis I can do.

[Mat he/him]

I appreciate that, fair enough.

Yeah ;-; I've wanted that for awhile now

[Aeoryi she/her]

im confusion who do we go after now

btw elims have a 2c cooldown on complaint hopefully or this is exlo

2 hours ago, The Known Novel said:

You know you need to get back on the meds when JNV sounds more coherent than you.

wdym elim dont need to vote ngl since v is lready exing wrong

I suspect 2 elims. lets look at this in terms of activity

active: aeoryi araris mat

semi active: tkn mark 

not quite so active: jnv stink frusteration (forgot exists)

if 3 elims gg

most likely elims are:

• Not including STINK if they did a stack complaint on Tess
• Flying under the radar, with the exception of e!TKN
• Not including Mat, or myself. 
• STINK JNV TKN team just seems horrible and unbalanced.
• Likewise, an Araris-Mat-(???) team seems terribly unbalanced in the other direction
• (Mat/Araris)-(mark/tkn)-(jnv/mark/stink) team seems kinda likely
• Mark-TKN-(jnv/stink) team also seems likely, but I would doubt they could coordinate a stack against tess
• mat-mark-3rd elim would make some sense but imo unlikely
• mat-tkn-3rd elim (inactivity tier) seems likely as well, with some minor distancing

so in other words:

Spoiler

Quote

 

1. Mat and Araris are likely not on an elim team with a third. if they are, excellent distancing by them

2. JNV and STINK are likely not on the same team. Frusteration with either of those two is unlikely too. All three seems horribly unbalanced.

3. STINK is less likely to be on an elim team than JNV. It is quite likely that either JNV, TKN, Mark IV, or STINK are on an elim team.

4. Frusteration on an elim team is going to be similar to stink, but with a lesser result.

5. TKN and/or mark are definitely on an elim team, if not them, then frusteration

6. Mat/Araris/TKN/Mark one of which is on the elim team as member no1

7. TKN/Mark/frusteration one of which is probably no2

8. TKN/Mark/frusteration/JNV/STINK one is probably no3

 

...

2 elim team:

Spoiler

Quote

 

1. 2 elim team is less likely than a 3 elim team

2. JNV,STINK,Frusteration probably not on same 2e team

3. I would say that STINK+TKN/mark is less likely.

4. TKN+Mark is definitely an option

5. TKN+Mat or TKN+Araris is a possibility

6. Araris+Mat makes logical sense but does not add up in game

7. Mark+Mat seems kinda likely but they haven't been seeming like any seperate entities so

8. Mark+Araris I could see, but it feels like it's missing a piece.

9. Mat/Araris+JNV/Frusteration is an option I could see it being rather fine

10. Most scenarios are more likely to favor Araris as elim rather than Mat.

11. TKN/Mark+JNV/STINK/frusteration is very underpower. the only one I could see working is Frusteration+TKN

12. Either 1 or both elims have roles. 

13. TKN is more favored here than mark imo.

 

...

Elimslists:

Spoiler

Quote

 

TKN: The last minute role claim doesn't do miracles for their v!side

JNV: Only evidence I could find was that they post more often when elim. This is certainly the case. This is a meta read so it holds little weight

Mat: Araris' pocket theory sums up the only suspiscions of mat around. Generally I would say seems v

Araris Valerian: Despite the curve of their activity spiking on d3v1, the contributions from them seem V. 

Mark: Has shown some intrest in solving the game, but has to work around IRL life. Seems v to me

Frusteration: Tons of unsupported votes, has seemed like they were being coached d1 or so.

stink: irl stuff happens. Not really v or e indicative

so yeah.

...

Okay so basically expect 3 elim team okay imma sleep now bye

[Aeoryi she/her]

5 hours ago, JNV said:

@Aeoryi if you dont want to play anymore you can just ask for a pinchhitter you know thats kinda what theyre for

I actually took your advice and asked for a pinch-hitter. Its not about the game, it's about more pressing issues coming up. And the fact that I don't want to really be on the shard anymore.

5 hours ago, The Known Novel said:

You know you need to get back on the meds when JNV sounds more coherent than you.

True, true.

5 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Aeoryi that almost makes sense but I will never like self voting; as long as you know what you're doing I guess it's fine? Whatever I guess

Elims don't feel pressured if you're voting yourself. They may if you're voting them /shrug

Glad it does. Hopefully I managed to pull off my goal of playing a completely different playstyle than last game (which was quite hard to do imo).

[Mat he/him]

8 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

btw elims have a 2c cooldown on complaint hopefully or this is exlo

I think it's just it resets every two cycles, so this being D3 everyone has full stock of complaints.