Mid-Range Game 64: Shades of Crimson

[Amanuensis he/him]

57 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Sounds like something a generally trusted thread controller e!Aman would say.

Edited July 18, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Why does the doc make you think Alpha is more village than just being the NK? 

The game will likely be over by the next opportunity to bring DeTess back, but 45% isn't that high. Is the extra village vote worth unkilling an Elim? Would e!Detess really volunteer for banishment without a way back?

If Archer was my teammate I would have cared more about him being executed yesterday. One post right before rollover is meaningless except for future reference. 

Edit: Detess's odds are flipping someone are zero if she's brought back since survivalist is before shade attacks. Getting a flip means writing her off in most cases. 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Devotary of Spontaneity

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Why does the doc make you think Alpha is more village than just being the NK? 

The game will likely be over by the next opportunity to bring DeTess back, but 45% isn't that high. Is the extra village vote worth unkilling an Elim? Would e!Detess really volunteer for banishment without a way back?

If Archer was my teammate I would have cared more about him being executed yesterday. One post right before rollover is meaningless except for future reference. 

Edit: Detess's odds are flipping someone are zero if she's brought back since survivalist is before shade attacks. Getting a flip means writing her off in most cases. 

IMO the NK was convincing enough already, but he expressed regret for claiming elim and dying—it seemed he initially thought he was the exe—and later he was in disbelief that people were theorizing e!Him NKing himself. That plus he actually engaged with me on my reads, and it didn’t seem to be to sway my thoughts (like an elim might try) but rather to understand them. So it’s a fairly strong read on its own.

A theoretical Survivalist won’t be able to pull back DeTess until C4 at the earliest, but if DeTess doesn’t get a flip tonight, then we need to leave her on there until C6–though at that point it’ll be unlikely she survives, unless we banish another knife holder (but that’s only a chance) and the problem just repeats so… RIP?

Who do you think the elims are Devo?

Edited July 18, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

A theoretical Survivalist won’t be able to pull back DeTess until C4 at the earliest, but if DeTess doesn’t get a flip tonight, then we need to leave her on there until C6–though at that point it’ll be unlikely she survives, unless we banish another knife holder (but that’s only a chance) and the problem just repeats so… RIP?

Survivalist can only act C3 and C5. If they go today, DeTess can't get a flip. By C6 if the game is still going on, her return will make it 2-1 assuming no fighter or assassin kills, no blocked elim kills, and one resurrection.

Was thinking Mat last cycle. Still think that's possible, but him not knowing how silver knives work is odd since the elims probably have one of those. I don't think DeTess is the knife elim. Ash is on the list but I'd like to see his updated opinions on banishment. Archer wasn't my first choice to die but that doesn't make him a good resurrection candidate.

[Amanuensis he/him]

58 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Survivalist can only act C3 and C5. If they go today, DeTess can't get a flip. By C6 if the game is still going on, her return will make it 2-1 assuming no fighter or assassin kills, no blocked elim kills, and one resurrection.

Was thinking Mat last cycle. Still think that's possible, but him not knowing how silver knives work is odd since the elims probably have one of those. I don't think DeTess is the knife elim. Ash is on the list but I'd like to see his updated opinions on banishment. Archer wasn't my first choice to die but that doesn't make him a good resurrection candidate.

Oh! Survivalist is staggered? I hadn’t realized. Hm.

TKN flash wagon?

[Mat he/him]

I village read him though :P.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

I'm feeling really lost and it's kinda annoying. Imma look at the player list and see if I can come up with something. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

Well I was writing up a post but I need to eat dinner and Aman already said half of what I wanted to say. Suffice to say, I’m fine with DeTess staying banished.

I went on Devo earlier, I can again, but I want to get back at looking at people after dinner if I can.

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

Less than an hour to get your actions and votes in!

[Ashbringer he/him]

Let's do some math. Archer didn't do his typical number-of-elims thing (at first I thought no one did, but Aman did just now), and also knowing there is a Fighter and a Homestead Leader (but presumably no Assassin) helps with the math a bit.

Could be 2 elims, or 3. If there were 3 elims (and 8 villagers), worst-case scenario it's 8-3 C1, 6-3 C2, 3-3 C3. The game isn't over because one villager would be Banished (which still counts for parity) and elims need to outnumber, but functionally that's very not good.

If there were 2 elims, worst-case scenario it's 9-2 C1, 8-2 C2, 5-2 C3. Better, but optimistic, and I'm not usually that optimistic on this planet. 

But, I think I'm willing to play with Aman's game here. Two Elims, or at least two still alive (meaning if there is a third, it's probably Archer). Who is that of the seven of us? I know I'm Village, for all the good that does anyone. Meta-wise I think I V-read Wonko too. Perhaps not, but they've drawn attention to themselves and Szeth wouldn't know their meta either. Devotary is the leading train and the fact no one's here watching makes me a bit more confident in our ability not to get hammered dramatically, but might as well extend it with no reads. TKN and TJ are read black holes, although I used to be able to ping e!TJ with some accuracy. And then Mat's weird in how unable to get a read I am. And then there's Aman. If not Devo I may want to push Mat here, but I'm fine with Devotary. (Edit: hi Mat)

 

There's the asterisk if Aman was elim, and dead C2 and alive again (or if Alpha was dead). Archer and Wonko were the only two who really regretted exeing Aman / pushed for a resurrections. That's part of why I pushed Archer last turn, because in the case of a large chunk of the elim team going down D1, their fellow Elims would probably push for a rez because otherwise they're out of options. Pushing out Aman again is an option we have, but that might be doubling down too much.

Devo - I'm fine with DeTess staying Banished, if it comes to that. Not going to vote what a V!Survivalist does one way or another.

 

One last thing - I got hit by a Fighter last turn. Probably the same one who hit Archer. 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Ashbringer

[Mat he/him]

Aaaa forgot about rollover and I haven’t voted

uh

*pulls up readslist*

TJ

#pointlessnullvoteforthewin

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

Aaaand that's a wrap!

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

MR64 Cycle Four: A Pool of Crimson

Professor Ashford Longfellow stirred his batch of beer, pondering his situation.

…were you supposed to stir it? He supposed it couldn’t matter too much.

Anyway.

He glanced at the letter from his boss, detailing a meticulous, well-thought-out plan. He didn’t much care for plans such as that. The chance of failure was much too large…

He turned as a stick snapped outside his window.

“Show yourself!” he declared. “I know Alloma-”

The window shattered, a hundred tiny pieces of metal shooting towards him at an alarming speed. Muscle memory served him well, and he jumped out of the way, Pushing on most of them, the few that he missed sailing past him and crashing into the wall behind him. His assailant didn’t relent; Longfellow gritted his teeth and dug the heels of his boots into the wooden floor for leverage.

What followed were some of the longest seconds of Longfellow’s life. He gritted his teeth, focusing all his energy into his Push; despite that, the metal shards inched closer and closer to his position. Rusts! He changed tactics, turning and Pushing the shards perpendicular to where his attacker was pushing them. Most obeyed, flying off into the corner of the room. Unfortunately, the six that he’d missed flew straight through his body, puncturing several major organs.

Longfellow fell to the ground, convulsing and yelling out in pain. His attacker appeared above him, covering his mouth and smiling as the professor thrashed, a pool of crimson spilling onto the planks of the floor.

*

The Lustrous Parbem, the Surveyor and the Guide, was not sleeping when the angry mob knocked on her door.

“Oi,” said the man at the head of the mob. “You show up here, claiming to be some fancy ‘surveyor’ type, then all these disappearances start happening. Coincidence? I think not!”

She narrowed her eyes at them, then said something in her own language, which Silven translated to: “Go, er, do… something… to yourselves.”

The mob cried out, first in mild confusion, then in outrage, yelling as they charged at the two of them, pitchforks sharp and torches lit.

---

Vote Count.

Devo (3): TJ, Aman, Ash

TJ (1): Mat

Wonko the Sane has become a Shade!

Devotary of Spontaneity has become a Shade!

Cycle Four has begun! The turn will end on June 20, 2023 at 7:30 PM PDT.

Participants.

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice
2. @Archer - Awhey (seasonal costume merchant) - Shade
3. @Ashbringer - Frederrick (definitely not a sleeper agent)
4. @TheAlpha929 - Jormmuthar (definitely not a sidekick to a sleeper agent) - Shade
5. @JNV  - Shade
6. @|TJ| 
7. @DeTess - Banished
8. @Devotary of Spontaneity - The Lustrous Parbem (the Surveyor and the Guide) and its translator Silven - Shade(s?)
9. @Wonko the Sane - Prof. Ashford Longfellow (an Abundance anthropologist) - Shade
10. @The Known Novel
11. @Amanuensis - Lazy Bones (old man)

Rule Clarifications (still in progress)

Edited July 20, 2023 by Szeth_Pancakes

[Ashbringer he/him]

Oh I thought the game was over. Guess not.

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Oh I thought the game was over. Guess not.

How would that have happened? :P.

No flip which makes our job harder. I will say though with DeTess not being rescued that I'm almost certain she's just village; an elim certainly wouldn't volunteer themselves to be more or less removed from the game when ratios really matter.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Well.

I was hit by the Fighter. 

Unfortunately, as I am the Leader, I won't be able to do anything until c6, so probably never.

[Mat he/him]

Ha, I knew I village read you :P. Good thing we didn't flashwagon.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

I mean technically I'm not guaranteed village, am I? An extra kill is a little over powered but I could see it happening if the village was pretty stacked.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, The Known Novel said:

I mean technically I'm not guaranteed village, am I? An extra kill is a little over powered but I could see it happening if the village was pretty stacked.

Ah, my bad. I thought you were claiming to hold the Dawnshard

[Ashbringer he/him]

As much as I love to argue that power roles aren't always village roles, it's probably village 

Maybe.

Probably.

 

Mat, Ash, TJ, TKN, Aman remain. At least one Elim in the group, maybe two. And DeTess over in the corner with a Blade, but it can't be just E!DeTess left.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Is there a reason to trust TJ?

I think we can call Aman good under the timescale we're working with. He could definitely be a gambit baddie, but aintnobuddygottimefordat.

Mat has been a bit oddly confident in his village read of me, I feel like he's generally more wiffly-waffly. 

I've got nothing on Ash. Want to lend him a little bit more credence than TJ, but not sure why.

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Is there a reason to trust TJ?

I think we can call Aman good under the timescale we're working with. He could definitely be a gambit baddie, but aintnobuddygottimefordat.

Mat has been a bit oddly confident in his village read of me, I feel like he's generally more wiffly-waffly. 

I've got nothing on Ash. Want to lend him a little bit more credence than TJ, but not sure why.

There's not a reason to anything TJ :P. He just hasn't been here. My vote last turn was more just me randomly picking a null because I don't like to not vote, and I'll definitely have to reread before I decide whether or not I feel like repeating that.

Where's the gambit behind Aman being evil? He wasn't killed, he was exed.

I've definitely confidently read people as village before. See AG and Croc (disregard the fact that Croc was evil) and probably a bunch of other less memorable times. I liked your tone C1. It felt village. Let me shrink my PoE ok ;-;

Ash is another one where I need to reread before making a real decision. I'm inclined to agree with you re TJ but that is also baseless.

Edited July 19, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[|TJ| he/him]

sorry boys, work was been really hectic and not really able to give time to this game. wanted to hop on just before starting work - 

im starting to get paranoid about aman... volunteering to get killed and then getting revived is eerily e!aman reminiscent. i always get paranoid of e!aman close to endgame smh. 

i'll try to rr after work today. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

I will note that after two "low-info" kills, the Elims went after Wonko instead of TJ.

... or me, I guess.

I will also note that changing behaviors after they're pointed out isn't that unusual, but it's a point for not-us-two.

[Amanuensis he/him]

RIP Wonko =/

Hm. Surprised the Fighter didn't hit Ash again to kill him. I'd assumed that Fighter was E, but now I'm not so sure.

Guess it's time for me to start rereading TJ