Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Steeldancer]

28 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

May we know what item?

Hm I'm thinking about whether I should share it or not. I need to get caught up on what's going on before I can decide whether to use it then share what it is or not. 

[---]

If we're staying inside mech pool then JNV is out, being roleblocked, no?

[Ashbringer]

I feel like leading on what item you're going to be using leads to people assuming it's a Crossbow. Which would make sense, considering the somewhat insane distribution of Protection we have.

Let me perhaps add one more. I have an Elder Sign Pendant. Only one of those that's shown up, to my knowledge.

[Alvron]

7 hours ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Wait, I’m confused. Why is it so likely in your mind that I’m a bad guy?

Because you start with an A.  

4 hours ago, TheAlpha929 said:

I really wouldn’t want to be a writer rn. Everyone wants one

I don't.  For the love of everything you hold dear, Writers, please don't give me a PM.  Esp with Araris.

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

Hm I'm thinking about whether I should share it or not. I need to get caught up on what's going on before I can decide whether to use it then share what it is or not. 

Ooh, ooh.  You can give it to me.  I don't mind getting gifts.  Esp sharp pointy ones I can use on others.

[Ashbringer]

N3 Actions:

• TKN:
• Matrim:
• Araris: Roleblocked
• Illwei:
• Alpha: Passed item to Devo
• Ash:
• TJ: Spellbook on Alvron
• DeTess: ??? (Attacked)
• JNV:
• Steel: (inactive)
• Alvron: Redirected to Self
• Devotary: RB on Araris

N4 Actions:

• TKN:
• Matrim:
• Araris: 
• Illwei:
• Alpha: 
• Ash:
• TJ: 
• DeTess:
• JNV: Roleblocked
• Steel: 
• Alvron: 
• Devotary: RB on JNV

I would think focusing on the N3 kill might be more profitable. Could have been TKN, Matrim, Illwei, Ash, or JNV if everyone's telling the truth (and the only potential lie that really makes sense would be TJ's). Can probably drop TKN from that list safetly, Mat and maybe-TJ less so. That leaves Illwei, JNV and me. Of those I think JNV is still the better target.

DeTess, do you know why Kas was so urgently trying to get a PM with you? I think that's probably contained in all the secrets, but I'm struggling to see why he would think that it was necessary. (Well, I have a guess, but... yeah.)

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

5 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Because you start with an A.  

Okay fair you got me

[---]

Ash continueally putting himself in the pool isn't a good look

[Ashbringer]

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Ash continueally putting himself in the pool isn't a good look

I tried to get Kas to exe me last turn and he said no 

Of all the things I've done this game, I feel like not clearing myself is one of the ones I do fairly often?

[JNV]

Hi Ive come down with the plague its not that bad but thinky thoughts is hard um yes I was roleblocked and honestly Ive been convinced TJs evil for a while so um yeah it looks like itll be me on the block today and thats fine um Im roleless no items so no action accountibility or anything for some reason Im trusting Ashbringer and Illwei so looking outside of the pool of mechanical accountilibty for me I think I might take a nap the plague is hard bye bye 

Ni sucuyi gar kyradyc ni partayli gar darasuum Kasimir dont know how much Ill be able to avenge you but Ill make my best effort while Im alive

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

If we're staying inside mech pool then JNV is out, being roleblocked, no?

The mech pool is from last turn, so not really.

Dunno how I feel about Ash claiming that instead of being quiet. I guess he never was gonna be attacked.

I want reasoning from JNV about their vote but probably won’t get it

Edited May 8, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Of all the things I've done this game, I feel like not clearing myself is one of the ones I do fairly often?

What examples can you remember?

1 hour ago, JNV said:

Im roleless no items so no action accountibility or anything for some reason Im trusting Ashbringer and Illwei so looking outside of the pool of mechanical accountilibty

Who do you think submitted the N3 kill then? Did you hear anything from any writers?

With the elim shade expert's protection expended, they should have at least two players capable of submitting the kill so the N$ actions list isn't close to complete enough to implicate anyone.

[Ashbringer]

24 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

What examples can you remember?

LG92 I didn't start clearing myself in PoE until I'd actually done things (namely killed E!Sart and claimed Thread Master). Other times... harder to find than I would have thought. When I do those N1-Kill-Analyses I typically don't exclude myself as an initial step, but my most recent of those I was Elim anyway.

I don't typically narrow down a PoE to myself and then vote myself out (even a few cycles ago I doubt I would have self-voted), but if I can make a PoE based on action things and I don't have any reason why it couldn't be me, I won't exclude myself from the final list. I find it's helpful if anyone can use it as opposed to everyone making their own reads lists clearing themselves we have to filter through. The N3 Ash-JNV-Illwei (and to a lesser extent TKN-TJ) PoE is fairly objective.

[DeTess]

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

DeTess, do you know why Kas was so urgently trying to get a PM with you? I think that's probably contained in all the secrets, but I'm struggling to see why he would think that it was necessary. (Well, I have a guess, but... yeah.)

I am curious about your guess here. Would you be willing to share that before I reveal the actual reason?

[|TJ|]

13 hours ago, |TJ| said:

D1 vote analysis mainly. Your vote on deTess essentially protected Archer, you provided no reasoning for your vote other than wanting your vote to count and you did not give any reason why you preferred deTess dead over Mat or Archer. 

Alpha, could you give any explanation for the above? I find it weird that you asked for my reasons to suspect you and then promptly ignored my reply. 

@TheAlpha929

[Ashbringer]

49 minutes ago, DeTess said:

I am curious about your guess here. Would you be willing to share that before I reveal the actual reason?

Some combination of Writer and Thief was my guess. Originally I thought you were a thief and got in touch with a Writer who then contacted Kas (which would explain how Pallid Mask #3 would avoid drawing eyes), but I suppose you could have just been the writer or both. Google Translate has been largely failing me on the Japanese.

[DeTess]

@Ashbringerinteresting guesses. The truth is, I'm not 100% certain what the emergency was. I think kas just wanted to get into contact with someone they trusted to share info in case they died that night. Or Kas had some suspicion of me and there was some kind of test in those PM's that I presumably passed as Kas never denounced me.

 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Alpha, could you give any explanation for the above? I find it weird that you asked for my reasons to suspect you and then promptly ignored my reply. 

@TheAlpha929

Sorry, I intended to reply but forgot.

It really comes down to this: I didn’t read any of them as more evil than the others. So, I put it closer to a tie, hoping an elim would be exed. 

 

[|TJ|]

37 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Sorry, I intended to reply but forgot.

It really comes down to this: I didn’t read any of them as more evil than the others. So, I put it closer to a tie, hoping an elim would be exed. 

Could you provide your current reads? The detailed, the better. 

Edit - 

@Matrim's Dice, why do you prefer Ash to Alpha? Excluding the 'kill pool' reasoning.

Edited May 8, 2023 by |TJ|

[Mat]

48 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

@Matrim's Dice, why do you prefer Ash to Alpha? Excluding the 'kill pool' reasoning.

Because Alpha passed Devo a palid mask. I’ve said that before; I don’t think it’s reasonable for an elim to give the conf roleblocker an item that makes them really hard to kill when you consider that they likely have to get the villagers down to one before they win.

[|TJ|]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Because Alpha passed Devo a palid mask. I’ve said that before; I don’t think it’s reasonable for an elim to give the conf roleblocker an item that makes them really hard to kill when you consider that they likely have to get the villagers down to one before they win.

Again repeating that they wanted to give it to Kas, and couldn't backtrack Kas' request to give it to Devo. Lack of thread control could force elims to look for other methods of survival. 

It's just that I re-read Alpha's D1, and there are so many points that are just triggering elim bells for me. 

Separate matter, but also a tiny bit worried about VitC this cycle. If 2 of the 3 players up for elimination (Ash, Alpha, JNV) are evil, elims could VitC to kill a villager. 

[Mat]

Just now, |TJ| said:

Again repeating that they wanted to give it to Kas, and couldn't backtrack Kas' request to give it to Devo. Lack of thread control could force elims to look for other methods of survival. 

It's just that I re-read Alpha's D1, and there are so many points that are just triggering elim bells for me. 

Separate matter, but also a tiny bit worried about VitC this cycle. If 2 of the 3 players up for elimination (Ash, Alpha, JNV) are evil, elims could VitC to kill a villager. 

Would that really make a difference, though? Kas was a Shade Expert, which is as bad if not worse for the elims as a RBer. Running into Kas’ protection would have resulted in their immediate death, as opposed to a RB which requires a subsequent exe, as we saw with Aman. The fact that they offered that is enough for me to village read them, especially since they followed through. No one forced them to offer their item.

If a villager gets VitCd I think we’d be able to tell who the elims are. imo if they’re forced into that position that’s a win for us because it’s not like we’re close to exlo. I don’t think that’d be a bad thing.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

10 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Again repeating that they wanted to give it to Kas, and couldn't backtrack Kas' request to give it to Devo. Lack of thread control could force elims to look for other methods of survival. 

 

Wait a minute, why are you assuming I was reluctant to pass it to Devo? It makes more sense to pass it to her anyway. I haven’t been very helpful in finding the elims this game, and figured I needed to do something to help.

Don’t worry, reads are coming soon m8

ew gross why did I say m8 gross I’m sorry 

Edited May 8, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[|TJ|]

2 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Wait a minute, why are you assuming I was reluctant to pass it to Devo? It makes more sense to pass it to her anyway. I haven’t been very helpful in finding the elims this game, and figured I needed to do something to help.

Because as far as I can recall, you did not respond to his request to give it to Devo in the thread. Sorry if I missed something though. 

Having the feeling that everyone's a bit casual this cycle, but I just realized we still have 12 players alive. It doesn't feel that way. But still smh. 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

3 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Because as far as I can recall, you did not respond to his request to give it to Devo in the thread. Sorry if I missed something though. 

Having the feeling that everyone's a bit casual this cycle, but I just realized we still have 12 players alive. It doesn't feel that way. But still smh. 

It does feel like we have a lot of inactive players. I haven’t been all that active myself.

[The Unknown Ajah]

Yeah, I'm kinda busy in the middle of a vacation. Not on my phone very much and there's not much to say it feels like.