Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Ashbringer]

Just now, |TJ| said:

I actually got the Spellbook which was in Archer's possession, so it was me redirecting Alv to target himself. 

Gotcha. At first I thought Kas had claimed it and was wondering if that somehow slipped... no, it was intentionally vague in the claim.

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Gotcha. At first I thought Kas had claimed it and was wondering if that somehow slipped... no, it was intentionally vague in the claim.

No, I believe I did specifically claim it last Night at TJ's request but hey, if I was gonna suffer trying to work out where to protect to intercept the kill, might as well make the Elims suffer trying to work out what I'm gonna do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add: Oh and the direct counterpoint to 'No one ever thinks about E!Kas' -> MR62.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You did, but supposing we are both Village, the Elims don't know if you gave it to me or to Devo (given both of us were mentioned as possible recipients) or if there's some other under the table communication. Imagination is an Elim's worst enemy and it always helps to keep them guessing.

ok whups ill keep that in mind

elims you didnt see anything

EDIT: see y'all later, it's 1:00 and Imma sign off

Have fun storming the castle

Edited May 4, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[DeTess]

So with TJ submitting that action, the pool of possible killers based purely on mech shrinks to: TKN, Mat, illwei, kasimir, fae, alpha, ash, jnv and walin/steel.

I think we can drop TKN and kas from the list, and I think Mat is probably village as well. Steel is also unlikely to be the killer here, unless @Elandera, do you allow active elims to puppet inactive elim's actions?

So that leaves illwei, fae, alpha, ash and jnv as suspects for this kill.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

ok whups ill keep that in mind

elims you didnt see anything

S'okay it happened and it's not the worst that they'll steer clear from her  A 'next time this happens in play for you' kind of deal I think!

Edited to add:

Just now, DeTess said:

So with TJ submitting that action, the pool of possible killers based purely on mech shrinks to: TKN, Mat, illwei, kasimir, fae, alpha, ash, jnv and walin/steel.

I think we can drop TKN and kas from the list, and I think Mat is probably village as well. Steel is also unlikely to be the killer here, unless @Elandera, do you allow active elims to puppet inactive elim's actions?

So that leaves illwei, fae, alpha, ash and jnv as suspects for this kill.

Alpha has been confirmed as passing a Mask. Cannot have put in a kill either.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Kasimir

[DeTess]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

 

Alpha has been confirmed as passing a Mask. Cannot have put in a kill either.

Right, of course. So that leaves illwei, fae, ash and jnv. Of these I'm most suspicious of Ash right now, but I plan to review them all this cycle.

[Kasimir]

4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Right, of course. So that leaves illwei, fae, ash and jnv. Of these I'm most suspicious of Ash right now, but I plan to review them all this cycle.

Reasonable.

I think I'll spell out now why I was willing to cut JNV some slack earlier, which I couldn't really have done even when Mat was asking me N2 without giving the game away:

Long story short, JNV was willing to back me up in the Elder Sign Pendant lie meant to buy Devo some time. JNV never claimed that at any point (hence my curiosity when you claimed JNV had a defensive item.) I felt that the Elims (whether via the Writer who made me my D1 PM with them or JNV) might've been more willing to risk a strike on Devo had they been aware of the play.

Edited to add:

@DeTess: Heads-up that you were asking about this...last Day. I ran a theory past Elan this morning but forgot to mention. Long story short, one potential reason not to have Archer put in the kill might be that a Shade Expert's protect can't do double duty. That is, if the protection has dissolved trying to defend you from a player attacking you, then it can't also protect you from Wrath of the Shades being triggered by you making a kill because the protection is already gone.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Kasimir

[Steeldancer]

Hi I'm alive, kind of forgot about the game, sorry. I don't have time to say anything useful right now, I had a really long work day and I'm going to get some rest now. I'll stop in tomorrow and get caught up on everything 

[Mat]

37 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Hi I'm alive, kind of forgot about the game, sorry. I don't have time to say anything useful right now, I had a really long work day and I'm going to get some rest now. I'll stop in tomorrow and get caught up on everything 

You got replaced by your roommate lol

[Alvron]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Alv was redirected to himself.

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

I actually got the Spellbook which was in Archer's possession, so it was me redirecting Alv to target himself. 

Nooo!  You made me run circles around myself!  Do you know how hard that is to do?
Now I'm all dizzy.

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

Hi I'm alive, kind of forgot about the game, sorry. I don't have time to say anything useful right now, I had a really long work day and I'm going to get some rest now. I'll stop in tomorrow and get caught up on everything 

Spoiler

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1086002951333629962/1103567121314758718/image0.gif

... Fine. You can stay.... 

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

So with TJ submitting that action, the pool of possible killers based purely on mech shrinks to: TKN, Mat, illwei, kasimir, fae, alpha, ash, jnv and walin/steel.

I think we can drop TKN and kas from the list, and I think Mat is probably village as well. Steel is also unlikely to be the killer here, unless @Elandera, do you allow active elims to puppet inactive elim's actions?

So that leaves illwei, fae, alpha, ash and jnv as suspects for this kill.

I do not allow puppet actions. 

[---]

when we kill Ash I'll be satisfied

Edited May 4, 2023 by Illwei

[|TJ|]

Trying not to brute-solve here, so not considering any action-economy stuff - 

Kas - Attacked N1 and N2 - Forest Green
Devotary - Blocked Aman N1 - Forest Green
deTess - Archer vote D1, Attacked N3 - Forest Green
Mat - Archer vote D1, but he flip-flopped around him, Mat voted on Archer, Aman voted on Mat, Paranoid e!SE - Grass Green
TKN - Flip-flop Archer vote D1 - Grass Green
Illwei - NULL
JNV - NULL
Steelin - NULL
Alv - Testing how VitC appears for future nefarious use? - Autumn Leaves Orange
Araris - Just paranoid about Archer bus - Autumn Leaves Orange
Ash - D1 protection vote - Jessica Chastain's Hair Orange
Alpha - D1 protection vote, Bunch of mentions and interactions with Aman/Archer, Openness about the willingness to pass the Mask reads as village appeasement, nonchalance about the possibility of elims attempting to stop the pass as well as absence of playing IKYK shows elim TMI - Blood Red
Fae - Suspicious self-vote, ending the sentence with "elims show yourselves" shows awareness that we need to catch elims which contradicts with the self-vote proving that the self-vote could be fake - Blood Red

[DeTess]

Doing the analysis for the PoE I established, starting with Fae:

So Fae's posts have been over 90% banter, which makes them very difficult to read. Some of if sounds a bit performative though, such as them calling for the elims to come out, which makes me suspicious, and with there being basically no attempts to actually find the elims as far as I can tell there's nothing to counterbalance those vibes. As it stands, I'll be up for a Fae lynch whenever.
@The Last Fæ, if you don't want people to lynch you over confusion as you stated earlier, the best you can do is to share some reads and opinions on people, as that could be used to determine your alignment in the long run.

Next is JNV:
They have had very few posts, and only one that seems really focused on solving the game, though I did like their thoughts on Aman and other related people in that post, and would honestly like to see more posts like that. @JNV, you shared some suspicion of Alpha in that post, but didn't really specify where that suspicion was coming from. can you expand on that?

I'll get to the other two later this cycle, but as it stands my order form least suspicious to most is illwei-> JNV -> Fae -> Ash

[Kasimir]

I think my problems are as follows:

-Not really against a Fae shrek but don't see her working on any four-member team that doesn't have Mat (which is itself a can of worms.) Agreed about some of the performativeness, and there's a fair point that Mat raised about a potential Thief claim.

-If V!Araris, don't substantively disagree with Araris's point on Alpha's suspicions which might be the deciding factor for me here. But as the Lakedaimonians would say: if.

-I think there's a fair question about Ash's votes and currently between <Ash/Alpha>, I'd probably lean Ash. But I also feel that Ash's extensive paranoia feels very consistent with V!Ash, if anything. But this needs me to re-read QF63 as I survived a N2 kill there too only to get paranoided on by him and also he paranoia vigshot the Village read I flashwagoned TKN to save RIP TKN RIP Archer

-For me, JNV's more just there than anything. Which is a long way of me saying I might be willing to go JNV yes, as bad as I feel about it. I also think they're more disengaged than usual though IDK if that counts for anything particularly.

Edited to add:

Since Illwei is in the pool - good opening + I kinda don't think E!Illwei wants to burn this much energy litigating the Pallid Mask issue even after Archer is dead and it helps no one.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Kasimir

[JNV]

3 hours ago, DeTess said:

@JNV, you shared some suspicion of Alpha in that post, but didn't really specify where that suspicion was coming from. can you expand on that?

Ok I think you misinterpreted what I said easy to do phraisng was bad sorry so wha I was saying there was Amanuensis was using Aloha to conditionally suspect people and theorize team stuff and all that so Aloha looked a bit village and someone in that big web of Aloha branch connections was probably evil also sorry for not being active checked in all that its exam week but like after Friday Ill exist more promise 

[Tea Leaf]

I am in fact a thief on the side of the Homesteaders. Waiting to get anything to use, other than a forbidden idol. 

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

So Fae's posts have been over 90% banter, which makes them very difficult to read. Some of if sounds a bit performative though, such as them calling for the elims to come out, which makes me suspicious, and with there being basically no attempts to actually find the elims as far as I can tell there's nothing to counterbalance those vibes. As it stands, I'll be up for a Fae lynch whenever.

Yeah, a bit of Je sais quoi. About the asking for some elims to appear doesn't seem to work (sadly), but who knows, some elim may inadvertently reveal themselves by their reaction. Why should I express my knowledge to the very elims I (might) hunt?

Edit 

Quote

So with TJ submitting that action, the pool of possible killers based purely on mech shrinks to: TKN, Mat, illwei, kasimir, fae, alpha, ash, jnv and walin/steel.

I think we can drop TKN and kas from the list, and I think Mat is probably village as well. Steel is also unlikely to be the killer here, unless Elandria, do you allow active elims to puppet inactive elim's actions?

So that leaves illwei, fae, alpha, ash and jnv as suspects for this kill.

Okay, 5 4 potential murderers, 2 real, 3 2 false (the slashout is you disproving alpha). Do you know the story? Where a man, made his way to a town, and in the town 3 people of a group of 4 committed a crime, but there was no way of telling who was innocent but they all fought for it. Each one couldn't be proven, and in the end they were all hung. Hey it is a 50 - 50 chance of an elim in that group, unless you are one but is you are... there is nothing I can do (other than vote for you).

Also I probably should check out ash.

On the topic of my stuff sounding preformative, may I say that is a good point. A true one. But so far I don't believe I have told a lie, confusion, yes, but not a lie. I know that is hard to prove because of my claim, which stated I was a homesteader thief, seeing as I have yet to get something I can't prove anything of it. So DeTess, to prove to you my innocence I will give you an item, if I get an item tonight/today and it isn't a forbidden idol. If I do get a forbidden idol you all know why I went insane.

Edited May 4, 2023 by The Last Fæ

[DeTess]

41 minutes ago, The Last Fæ said:

 

Yeah, a bit of Je sais quoi. About the asking for some elims to appear doesn't seem to work (sadly), but who knows, some elim may inadvertently reveal themselves by their reaction. Why should I express my knowledge to the very elims I (might) hunt?

Because by sharing your views it becomes easier for others to read you and stops your views from dying with you if the elims or a mislynch take you out.

The elims of course are in the opposite camp, trying to make it difficult to read them and leaving as few clues as possible when they do get taken out. For this reason your lack of sharing your insights reads as suspicious.

[Kasimir]

Thoughts from a D1 re-read:

I have a really bad headache so I'll do more later.

• I'm either paranoiding real hard on TJ or I'm confused about how many of his narratives are gaining traction especially when I don't consider them to be necessarily good takes.
• I think DeTess looks good from Archer CWing on DeTess
• Think that if we ignore Alv's claim about the timing (easily a lie), there's an Alpha-Alv world where they tried to CW on Steel using Alv's VitC. The only thing is that this team has to be a TJ-Alv-Alpha team due to actions economy, with TJ either using the Spellbook or lying about it.
• IDK how I feel about Fae anymore.
• Elasticity point could be Archer-Mat distancing but doesn't really capture that the valence is wrong: Mat is more willing to vote Archer than Archer is Mat when you'd expect it to go the other way around because Silver Bones.
• Aman seems to suggest: V!TJ, Ash as person of interest, V!Alpha. DO NOT TRUST.
• I struggle however with E!Ash voting for DeTess when easier to save Archer by voting Mat.
• Alpha casting actual saving vote on Archer.
• ...I need stronger painkillers RIP.

 

Spoiler

Quote

Sart (1): Mat
Mat (1): Aloha
Aloha (1): TKN

Nothing much to see here, standard poke vote but it does lead to a cascading chain with Aloha and TKN jumping on. Mat asks about the vote which is a bit odd as early game poke votes are...early game poke votes?

Ash makes a non-comment about the rules having changed.

Still like TJ's start where he's immediately trying to remember if a passive-aggressive Mat is an Evil Mat but TBH that's not really something I got off Mat's response and this is going to be a theme for me with some of TJ's reads. ???

Mat doesn't remember VitC but deems it naturally Elim-sided. I don't deny this is a response that could emerge from a Village perspective but worth re-examining in terms of Archer over-performing distaste for it.

Archer explicitly susses Mat for being annoyed which feels like Archer picking up on TJ's question and turning it into a thing. Also suggests team of four but then suddenly team of five for no particular reason.

Quote

Sart (1): Mat
Mat (2): Aloha, Archer
Aloha (1): TKN
Archer (1): TJ

@|TJ| - What triggered your gut about Archer's post? You say this here:

Weird aside to Fae here from Archer. Don't know it means anything but it's a very random callout.

Vote from Aman to Alv. 

Quote

Sart (1): Mat
Mat (2): Aloha, Archer
Aloha (1): TKN
Archer (1): TJ
Alv (1): Aman

JNV suggests using VitC as a Riot, which echoes Archer's views a bit but also is uninteresting in that we're not so much interested in VitC as a strat but which side to use it for. Very, very mild .

Shift from Alv to Aloha. Could indicate that Aman had done a teammate poke and was willing to move on. I then join on Aloha.

Quote

Sart (1): Mat
Mat (2): Aloha, Archer
Aloha (3): TKN, Aman, Kas
Archer (1): TJ

TKN unvotes Aloha and votes Mat and unvotes Mat - net change zero. Aman indicates he wants TKN in the tie.

Quote

Sart (1): Mat
Mat (2): Aloha, Archer
Aloha (2): Aman, Kas
Archer (1): TJ

Aloha asks why I jumped on him. Strangely uninterested in why Aman jumped on him though. Potential .

Ok nvm I think TJ articulates this a bit here:

Quote

This strong wording, the pre-emptive suspicion of any particular action, feels e!Archer indicative. I think I recall him doing something similar in a game in which he was evil. 

Interesting that TJ is very meta-dependent this game. I just read it as Evil because that felt performative and also, QF59.

I still don't know I feel good about TJ assuming an Evil read - I think that one usually expects a Village read when Village and gets blindsided, whereas the Elim is hyperalert for being detected. 

A touch of actual defensiveness here from Mat - no real reason why it should be taken at face value just because made at face value. Presumption here is it's coloured by your alignment?

Archer attempts a TKN side-train for no apparent reason.

Quote

Sart (1): Mat
Mat (1): Aloha
Aloha (2): Aman, Kas
Archer (1): TJ
TKN (1): Archer

Sart discovers his inner bloodthirst and votes DeTess for fence-sitting

Quote

Sart (1): Mat
Mat (1): Aloha
Aloha (2): Aman, Kas
Archer (1): TJ
TKN (1): Archer
DeTess (1): Sart

Some interest from Archer at Ash's analysis but not outright shade.

Quote

What was up with that self analysis? I saw someone mentioned vote avalanches have happened on you before, but you really ran with that topic to make some points about v!, e!you that didn't seem relevant. 

Matters later on because Archer doesn't take this and go onto Ash despite there being appetite for it.

Araris votes for Archer, notes that public voting is important. I take this to be a watered down version of Archer's position but struggle to ascribe a read to it. This vote brings the Archer train into one of the lead trains. Significant because neither Araris nor TJ budge subsequently.

Quote

Sart (1): Mat
Mat (1): Aloha
Aloha (2): Aman, Kas
Archer (2): TJ, Araris
TKN (1): Archer
DeTess (1): Sart

Flagging here that TJ elaborates on request a slightly more positive view of Aman and slightly less positive of DeTess.

Steel shows up to remind us how much he doesn't care. Reluctant 

Alpha takes exception to it (fair), but is extremely reluctant to vote Steel and qualifies he doesn't believe it's quite worth an Evil read. Surprising restraint. 

Ash notes this as well but does nothing (as well.) 

DeTess votes for Mat because of his defensiveness.

Quote

Sart (1): Mat
Mat (2): Aloha, DeTess
Aloha (2): Aman, Kas
Archer (2): TJ, Araris
TKN (1): Archer
DeTess (1): Sart

This generates a three-way tie between Mat-Aloha-Archer.

I don't disagree with my past self's attribution of  points to TJ and Devo for resisting the easy VitC = Evil inference. 

Archer circles back to vote on Mat, once again citing Mat annoyance as a tell. That donkey has been flogged to death.

Quote

Sart (1): Mat
Mat (3): Aloha, DeTess, Archer
Aloha (2): Aman, Kas
Archer (2): TJ, Araris
DeTess (1): Sart

Abandoning the TKN side-train, and IMO, pretty tellingly, breaking the tie against himself. Agrees with Sart that DeTess sus but not voting alongside Sart.

I vote for Steel which doesn't last very long as I go back to Aloha. Again.

I don't strongly disagree with past self's performativity read of Alpha FWIW but Alpha's cited RL so at some point you just either commit to saying, "I believe you could be Evil and have bad RL" or just go "OK then."

Side-note:

DeTess said this.

Quote

Five is too many elims for a 17 player game in my experience. It would give the players only three mislynches in total, and if there is any sort of killing role or ability (like say, the crossbows), if it hits a villager once it cuts another mislynch. (two cycles with mislynches of kill + a crossbow shot killing a villager would put us at Lilo).

FWIW I actually still lean four with the E!SE. Insofar as that all extra lives or Thugness and so on is just info denial in this game when the Village doesn't really know and has to commit to flipping or not to. This is made more difficult because things like attacks may not necessarily be something the players are aware of. Might be wishful thinking here but I think people underestimate how much FUD space there is in this game because of how little definite info we get.

At least it's not flipless right.

Still like this discussion from DeTess - feels very unselfaware of the SE which is stark opposed to what Archer was doing. Village perspective. 

Mat votes DeTess.

Alpha says he always wants to vote Mat, and wants to vote Aman, but ends up voting Steel. @TheAlpha929 - What about Aman set you off, btw?

Quote

Mat (2): DeTess, Archer
Aloha (2): Aman, Kas
Archer (2): TJ, Araris
DeTess (2): Sart, Mat
Steel (1): Aloha

This collapses Archer's CW. RIP Archer.

Aman is in full favour of letting it rand, but also states he doesn't want a D1 Aloha exe. (E/E? Or cover there for the actual Archer train?) I ask him what he's smoking.

Aman suggests DeTess might be a CW (now-Kas doesn't disagree with this assessment, having had good vibes for DeTess) and suggests this points to E!Sart or E!Mat, "possibly with E!Archer or E!Aloha." I'd argue since we now know Archer is Evil, the clear deflection of Evilness towards Sart and Mat (at least one of whom we know is Village) probably looks a bit good for Mat as well.

Aman considers voting Ash prior to Aloha as a /shrug or null option - not wrong, but potential shielding there? Unclear. (I DON'T LIKE TO READ AMAN I'M NOT GOOD AT THIS DAMNIT GUYS I FEEL LIKE I'M PLAYING FREAKIN' EXTREME MINESWEEPER DARK VERSION HERE.)

I vote for Aman because damnit #feelsbad. 

Quote

Mat (2): DeTess, Archer
Aloha (1): Aman
Archer (2): TJ, Araris
DeTess (2): Sart, Mat
Steel (1): Aloha
Aman (1): Kas

Mild half-hearted defense of Ash:

Quote

There was a post or two were Ash suggested an explanation for Aloha’s behavior from receiving a few votes, using their own experience in the matter. I think I’ve recently sussed someone for this same thing in a recent game and they turned out to just be sympathetic Villager. Still worth noting.

Significant amount of E!Aloha presumption here despite Aman also stating he's not sure he's into a D1 Aloha exe. Makes me wonder about V!Aloha tbh.

Aman self-votes.

Quote

Mat (2): DeTess, Archer
Archer (2): TJ, Araris
DeTess (2): Sart, Mat
Steel (1): Aloha
Aman (2): Kas, Aman

Probably an interesting moment in Elim HQ.

He then swaps off to Mat because no crem, this is not a good state of affairs for Elims, with at least 1/2 lead trains starring Elims.

Quote

Mat (3): DeTess, Archer, Aman
Archer (2): TJ, Araris
DeTess (2): Sart, Mat
Steel (1): Aloha
Aman (1): Kas

A moment that looks pretty V for Mat, IMO.

Mat being more understanding of Aman than I'd expect. This sort of made me doubt Mat earlier.

I low-key feel that TJ been having an outsized impact on C1 for a guy with pretty non-committal reads, cf. Mat's 'abnormal coolness' of indeterminate valence and IDK how to feel about it because it feels like the fundamental job here is establishing valence.

Interesting from Aman:

Quote

In case you ask, TJ is a little higher and Archer a little lower in my nulls. I don’t feel like I have as firm a grip on how to read them as you do. I liked TJ’s read of my part in the VitC discussion, so for now, I’d rather keep him around  as for Archer, his posts have been unremarkable enough that he could die and I wouldn’t bat an eye

Distancing from Archer. Willingness to keep TJ alive positive in light of that?

Weird moment for Archer: switching off of Mat.

Quote

Mat (2): DeTess, Aman
Archer (2): TJ, Araris
DeTess (2): Sart, Mat
Steel (1): Aloha
Aman (1): Kas
TKN (1): Archer

Archer's vote has been weirdly elastic all Day- goes to Mat, off Mat, back to Mat, TKN, TKN. He hasn't really had any other target. My current theory is that this is because Archer doesn't want to be voting alongside Aman, but it's worth flagging as a point of weirdness because moving off Mat exposes Archer.

Mat, interestingly, votes for Archer, and indeed, Archer seems to be making way too much hay off that one post (which as I recall, TJ was the first to flag and this is the part I go 'Is TJ just the bad luck brian or why are his reads in the fingerprints of so much weird crem.') 

Quote

Mat (2): DeTess, Aman
Archer (3): TJ, Araris, Mat
DeTess (1): Sart
Steel (1): Aloha
Aman (1): Kas
TKN (1): Archer

Worth noting that in a Mat/Archer E/E world theory, this should be the opposite - Archer should be self-pressing on Mat as only one of them has an extra life.

Archer unvotes TKN.

Quote

Mat (2): DeTess, Aman
Archer (3): TJ, Araris, Mat
DeTess (2): Sart, Ash
Steel (1): Aloha
Aman (1): Kas

And Ash reintroduces DeTess. I...sort of want to see this as saving Archer but not quite as well - I feel like E!Ash could just vote Mat here as well.

I no longer know how to feel about Fae's self-vote

Mat calls for an Ash flashwagon. Alpha votes DeTess,

Quote

Mat (2): DeTess, Aman
Archer (3): TJ, Araris, Mat
DeTess (3): Sart, Ash, Alpha
Aman (1): Kas

I feel this deserves a tad more weight because it ties Archer and DeTess officially.

Aman wants to know why Ash flashwagon and aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa it's driving me back to E!Ash why must this be so difficult why can't an actual post-reads specialist do this why am I undertaking the challenge of my SE career...

Devo ties Mat by voting for him.

Quote

Mat (3): DeTess, Aman, Devo
Archer (3): TJ, Araris, Mat
DeTess (3): Sart, Ash, Alpha
Aman (1): Kas

Side-note: If we ignore what Alv said about having placed his vote at the start of the cycle, I feel it's possible that at some juncture, Alpha and Alv's secret vote formed another Steel sidetrain that could've taken pressure off Archer.

Archer breaks the tie by voting DeTess. Feel this demonstrates a certain dgaf towards DeTess's welfare. Unlikely teamed.

Quote

Mat (3): DeTess, Aman, Devo
Archer (3): TJ, Araris, Mat
DeTess (4): Sart, Ash, Alpha, Archer
Aman (1): Kas

 

 

[Tea Leaf]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I no longer know how to feel about Fae's self-vote

Nor do I. 

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

• IDK how I feel about Fae anymore.

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

58 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

What about Aman set you off, btw?

I never trust him, I don’t how to read him in any shape or form, looks like I was partially right partially wrong about him 

[|TJ|]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Archer explicitly susses Mat for being annoyed which feels like Archer picking up on TJ's question and turning it into a thing. Also suggests team of four but then suddenly team of five for no particular reason.

I didn't feel that actually, perhaps you're misinterpreting it. Archer said Mat was annoyed. I never felt Mat was annoyed, and Mat correctly asked repeatedly where did it show that he was annoyed to Archer. My read of the post was mainly because of the "I understand *insert emoji*" part, that smiley which just exuded passive-aggressiveness :P. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

@|TJ| - What triggered your gut about Archer's post? You say this here:

I have no clue, it's gut for a reason :P. But I think again, it's a meta thing. Subconsciously, I think I thought Archer hypothesising elim team size is Archer in his elim meta. 

Also, important to note that my vote on Archer was the second vote, you were still voting on him at the time. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I still don't know I feel good about TJ assuming an Evil read - I think that one usually expects a Village read when Village and gets blindsided, whereas the Elim is hyperalert for being detected. 

If you notice the post, you can see that I got what you meant in the same post as I was playing catch-up. If I was hyper-aware, I would have probably just deleted the part where I assumed you had an evil read of me. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Flagging here that TJ elaborates on request a slightly more positive view of Aman and slightly less positive of DeTess.

That read of Aman was at your request. I don't go to solve Aman in D1, I just cannot. >> I thought deTess' post did not actually say much at all, and you felt it was performative as well by your own admission. With Sart going for deTess for the same reasoning, notice I could have switched off Archer onto deTess. It was a small thing to look out for, I just genuinely needed more time to assess deTess as the half game I played with her, she was already sorta conf. village when I subbed in. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Aman suggests DeTess might be a CW (now-Kas doesn't disagree with this assessment, having had good vibes for DeTess) and suggests this points to E!Sart or E!Mat, "possibly with E!Archer or E!Aloha." I'd argue since we now know Archer is Evil, the clear deflection of Evilness towards Sart and Mat (at least one of whom we know is Village) probably looks a bit good for Mat as well.

One of the things that caught my eye during re-read because Alpha was grouped with Archer in multiple Aman posts but always behind a higher priority group. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I low-key feel that TJ been having an outsized impact on C1 for a guy with pretty non-committal reads, cf. Mat's 'abnormal coolness' of indeterminate valence and IDK how to feel about it because it feels like the fundamental job here is establishing valence.

I have no idea what this whole thing means here :P. I just think of chemistry where I see 'valence'. :P. Btw, I was right about Mat's coolness smh, he knew he'd survive the execution >>

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Mat, interestingly, votes for Archer, and indeed, Archer seems to be making way too much hay off that one post (which as I recall, TJ was the first to flag and this is the part I go 'Is TJ just the bad luck brian or why are his reads in the fingerprints of so much weird crem.') 

Again repeating my earlier point. Way different reads of that post. He generates annoyance from that post, I saw p-aggresiveness. 

And yeah, confused between Fae (proof that you're Thief is not the proof that you're village), Ash and Alpha. But I'm actually leaning towards the latter two because of D1 voting. 

[Mat]

Very quick thoughts on a few players as I think to give them--

• Ash: There were one or two posts from them yesterday where I was like, village mindset. Or tone wise I v read them. Don't remember where or what about but I don't think I e read them as much anymore? Still would exe tbh but I think his early game was a lot more e than current game if that makes any sense. I guess he did have that DeTess vote D1.
   
• Fae: I might actually vote here before Ash somehow but it's just a few things, like the thief claim + reclaiming over and over to get the point in yet not having any evidence towards the claim whatsoever (plus even if true works with e!Aman fake claiming thief as he was dying) and then there have also been moments where their votes felt very intentionally placed before almost immediately being retracted with no explanation.
   
• Alpha: They passed a mask to Devotary, correct? If so, almost certainly village imo. You could argue it was for village cred, but what elim, when faced with a player list that shows more flipped red players than green ones on day four, and no longer having a surefire protect ability, would pass away a mask to the confirmed roleblocker who already successfully found an elim. Maybe if the elims were in a better spot, but I just straight up don't see it. If we're theorizing a 4 person team, they have an outnumber wincon, meaning that they'd need to get it down to a 2v1. Giving Devo a mask seems like literal wincon suicide to me :P.
   
• JNV: I guess is up for the exe because of PoE? They haven't really done anything either way, right? As far as tie breaking and such. I feel extremely vanilla about this exe, if it happens, okay, if it doesn't, sure.
   
• Araris + Alv: Lumping them together because they aren't e/e unless it was a 5p team start, right? Due to the spellbook + RB combo. Or one of them had a mask I guess. But anyway, these two sorta feel like JNV to me. Like options that aren't especially pulling either way. I know Araris voted Archer early on but I don't remember how sticky that vote was. I don't like Alv just VitCing and then saying it was for some reason yet there being no outside benefit for the mechanic anywhere in the rules. It feels like an excuse to not participate in the exe.

I'll start on Alvron but that's not by any means set. I'd vote anyone on this list besides Alpha tbh. I think everyone else is in my 'won't vote' pile. Maybe I'd vote Illwei or Steel, idk.

Edit: Forgot TJ somehow... I think he's hovering around where Illwei is for me. I feel like there was some reason I should be reading him more village but I have no idea what that reason would be lol

Edited May 4, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[|TJ|]

27 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Edit: Forgot TJ somehow... I think he's hovering around where Illwei is for me. I feel like there was some reason I should be reading him more village but I have no idea what that reason would be lol

Because of I voted Archer D1 and D3? And D3 vote was prior to TKN opposing Archer's actions btw. smh -.-

[Mat]

18 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Because of I voted Archer D1 and D3? And D3 vote was prior to TKN opposing Archer's actions btw. smh -.-

I think it was also that you were passing Kas a mask but I guess that doesn't have to be true, technically