Kasimir he/him Posted April 30, 2023 Posted April 30, 2023 24 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: @Kasimir if you’re able can you briefly explain why JNV is so high? That's...not very high? Also pure vibes. Plus, now that even Aman has shanked me C1, probably the only last buddy I have left who wouldn't do that >:( *I'm joking for the meme and because somehow I find it really funny Aman went for the revenge C1 shot But in all seriousness – LG89 Elim docs. I absolutely believe E!JNV would NK me but they've explicitly asked their teammates for an N1 embargo on killing me before. Likely this will die one game when I must be N1ed but I think it's a decent tell for now. That and the dgaf of their posts. Angemon isn't that high tbh. And it's only N2.
Mat he/him Posted April 30, 2023 Posted April 30, 2023 13 minutes ago, Kasimir said: That's...not very high? You put them literally second highest out of everyone, seems pretty high to me
Kasimir he/him Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: You put them literally second highest out of everyone, seems pretty high to me Perhaps. But there's a big gap in my head between where Devo is and every other tier, but you've seen it when I do more conventional reads lists. I'm reluctant to promote to Moderate Village, have low thresholds for V lean, and require a bit more for Light Village. I'm saying that I quantify that as a Light Village read which still means things like not breaking opsec for that player
The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 I was looking through the thread, and I realized Aman had silver dust (I know, I am very detached from the game, I’m sorry) but how could he have it? It’s a thief item? He wasn’t a thief was he?
Ashbringer he/him Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 Thief items can be present with players at the start of the game, from my understanding. Thieves can just retrieve them later.
The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 19 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Thief items can be present with players at the start of the game, from my understanding. Thieves can just retrieve them later. Oh ok
Alvron Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 15 hours ago, Kasimir said: Any chance you gonna before I die? There is always a Chance.
The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Illwei said: Alpha is in my suspects list now Why? sorry I didn't read the rules well :/
Elandera she/her Posted May 1, 2023 Author Posted May 1, 2023 (edited) As I sit in the silence, I wonder. Wonder and marvel at the world so filled with death, yet also with life. A world so old and ancient. How many have lived and died here? We see the dead roam. But are they truly dead, or do they sleep in silence and wait. Wait for their return. Sart has died! He was a Homesteader and a Writer. Archer has gone insane! Alvron has gone insane! Wrath of Shades Counter: 5% Messages from the Writers: Spoiler こんにちは皆さん、 私は職人を探しているんだ。ポストを注文したいですが。私を助けることができれば、私に呼んでください This turn will end Tuesday, May 2 at 8:30 p.m. PDT / Wednesday, May 3 at 1:30 p.m. AEST. Player List: Spoiler @The Known Novel - Crazy Hary @Archer - Sam the Witch, widowed by choice @Matrim's Dice - Enatnom @Araris Valerian - Read My Role Telrao / @Illwei - Ealmin @Kasimir - Mordekai @The Last Fæ Amanuensis - Cultist with Iron Will Sart - Homesteader Writer @TheAlpha929 - Roosevelt @Ashbringer - AraRaash @|TJ| @DeTess @JNV - Jen @Steeldancer - Lord Momo of the Momo Dynasty @Alvron - Navor @Devotary of Spontaneity - Surnia Rule Clarifications: Spoiler Wrath of Shades can only kill the person who sent in the action that triggered it. If a Cultist and a Crossbow user both kill in the same night, they are both rolled at the same percentage and could both be killed. If a Cultist and Crossbow user are the only ones alive at a night turn, both take action to kill the other, and no other actions are involved (such as the Pallid Mask), the game will end on a tie. Pallid Mask and Elder Sign Pendant are both passive items. You cannot use Voice in the Crowd to change a vote to a no vote. Pallid masks do not stop such actions as opening PMs or passing items as they are not "actions taken against" a player, as in not aggressive actions. Any form of protection or roleblock that stops an attack, no matter where in the OoA, will cause Broken Survivors unless specifically stated otherwise. You will always be informed if you lose an ability, role, or item. Iron Will prevents Broken Survivors as it is not their own action that caused it. I believe in this ruleset, the only form of insanity it does not protect against is using the spell book. Previous iterations had more actions with insanity consequences. The chance of a Shade attack is never zero. Pallid Masks do not stop from being voted on via Voice in the Crowd. Edited May 1, 2023 by Elandera 6
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 Perhaps wrath of shades happened at just a 5% chance. Likely that would mean either Archer or Alvron is the killer, unless the elims had a silver boned.
Elandera she/her Posted May 1, 2023 Author Posted May 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, Illwei said: Shouldn't the wrath of shades be at 10?? Confuse... The counter is accurate at 5%
Alvron Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, Elandera said: Alvron has gone insane! *cackles manically* In 2008 Norway knighted a penguin! Elephants hear with their feet! Mushrooms have teeth! 4
Ashbringer he/him Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 (edited) The Wrath of Shades is strange. But according to the Simple Rules, it should only reset once someone is killed by it. Not attacked, killed. Which makes things not make sense. Perhaps Sart had a Crossbow and shot one of Alv/Araris and they survived, then Sart died to Wrath of Shades? Or perhaps Wrath of Shades only increases next turn. Edit: and that of course still has a missing Elim kill. Could be a shot on the other of Araris/Alv. Edit Edit: not Araris. Archer. Too many people on the A Team here. Edited May 1, 2023 by Ashbringer
Alvron Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 I might be insane but I can still post my thoughts/conclusions now that we have a dead elim. Note: this is cherrypicked from my Ongoing Games Doc so it doesn't have everything in it. Just the parts I feel are Aman related. LG94 Votes, Thoughts and Conclusions: (Ongoing) Day 1: Alv secretly votes for Steel (reasons) Mat votes for Sart (joke vote) Alpha votes for Mat (for voting for Sart / joke) TKN votes for Alpha (continuing the joke) Kas votes for Archer (RP / poke) Archer votes for Mat (minor elim!Mat tell) - (elim!Mat gets annoyed easily?) TJ votes for Archer (gut based on Archer’s elim numbers post) Aman votes for Alv (because Alv is too awesome / poke - welcome back vote) Aman votes for Alpha/Aloha (unknown) Kas votes for Alpha/Aloha (joke?) TKN votes and unvotes Mat (unknown) Archer votes for TKN (for unvoting Alpha) Sart votes for DeTess (poke - welcome back vote) - (DeTess will always be Rand to me) Araris votes for Archer (agrees with TJ’s reasoning) DeTess votes for Mat (feels Mat is being defensive) Archer revotes Mat (doubles down on elim!Mat tell) Kas votes Steel (unknown / joke) Kas votes Alpha (not feeling Steel vote?) - (Suggests to vote DeTess due to past game read) Mat votes DeTess (Feels DeTess is acting the same way they did in another game when Elim) Alpha votes Steel (best guess) Aman loves the tie between Mat/Alpha/Archer and DeTess (No elims in group?) - (Claims joke a couple posts later) Kas votes for Aman (Sick!Kas is sick - brain fried) Aman votes for himself (FOR THE TIE!) Aman votes for Mat (unknown / self pres?) Archer votes TKN (suspicious TKN only seems to be talking about/to Mat) Mat votes Archer (self pres) - (willing to vote DeTess or Ash) Archer unvotes TKN (misread posts / read) Ash votes DeTess (likes the arguments against them) Fae votes for themself (New player nerves?) Alpha votes DeTess (wants vote too mean something) Devotary votes Mat (For a 3 way tie / make Mat choose self pres vote?) Archer votes DeTess Kas secretly votes for Mat at some stage during cycle. Final Vote Tally: (As per Write-up) DeTess (4) - Archer, Sart, TheAlpha929, Ashbringer Matrim's Dice (4) - Amanuensis, DeTess, Devotary of Spontaneity Archer (3) - Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, |TJ| The Last Fae (1) - The Last Fae Steeldancer (1) - Amanuensis (0) - Kasimir Thoughts: Kas’ vote moved from Aman to Mat by secret vote (self claimed) Hidden vote on Steel from Alv (self claimed) Day 2: (No Night Kill) Kas is insane (not a big surprise to those that know Kas) Mat votes Ash (unknown) Ash votes Alv (for being willing to kill Kas N1) - (disproven. Alv would never kill Kas that early) Alv secretly votes for Devotary (reasons) Kas votes Devotary (feels they low efforting) Kas votes Ash (for voting Alv and maybe some other minor stuff) - (feels Ash should’ve gone for Mat instead of Alv due to past game talk regarding N1ing Kas) Archer votes for Araris (rng vote?) Wei votes Ash (feels Ash/Archer team) Sart votes Mat (suspicious of Mat having extra life. Feels elims would have some of those due to mechanics) Araris votes Mat (same reasoning as Sart) Fae votes Mat (new player confusion?) Fae unvotes Mat (???) DeTess votes Devotary (D1 vibes) Alpha votes Ash (for voting Alv) Devotary votes Aman (Claims roleblocking Aman + no kill = Aman evil) All votes after this are irrelevant as foregone conclusion who will be voted out. Past games conclude that Elim/Village voting patterns tainted after reveals. Final Vote Tally: (As per Write-up) Amanuensis (7) - The Known Novel, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, |TJ|, DeTess, JNV, Devotary of Spontaneity Ashbringer (2) - Illwei, TheAlpha 929 Araris (1) - Archer Matrim's Dice (1) - Sart Alvron (1) - Ashbringer Devotary of Spontaneity (1) - Thoughts: Only one secret vote. Would’ve expected more no voters to secretly vote to mess with things. Elims benefit well from doing this. Hidden vote on Devotary from Alv (self claimed) Devotary most likely village due to claimed roleblock on Aman and no Night kill. Possible gambit if Aman needed to leave for Real Life reasons. Unlikely but slight chance. Araris claims to have received Silver Dust from Aman’s corpse Day 3: Sart is killed. Alv is Insane (because of course he is) Archer is Insane (because it was deemed so) Overall Player Thoughts: Aman: Aman - Mat team possible. Aman knowing about Silver Boned Mat would be willing to leave tie. Likelihood >45% Aman - Devotary team possible but unlikely. Devotary had no reason to claim roleblock and throw teammate under bus when other reasons for lack of Night Kill easily available Likelihood <10% Aman - Mat - Devotary team possible. Incredibly unlikely but possible. (Magnificent play if true. Deserve to win) Likelihood <5% Aman - Kas team possible. Obvious collab in thread. Possible cover. Likelihood <15% Only votes on Aman before reveal are Kas and Aman. No conclusions to draw. Aman votes on Alv, Alpha, Aman and Mat Day 1 No votes of worth Day 2 Possible distancing Day 1? (Refer to Profile: Aman for likely odds) Possible no elims voting on Aman as it would be expected for them to do so? Smart play not to?
Ashbringer he/him Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 Alvron, have you lost anything? Same to @Archer I suppose. Otherwise Devotary may have struck again.
Alvron Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Alvron, have you lost anything? On the contrary my good Ash! I found a Vase. It looks like a squid! Or is it a Squid that looks like a vase?
The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, Alvron said: I might be insane but I can still post my thoughts/conclusions now that we have a dead elim. Note: this is cherrypicked from my Ongoing Games Doc so it doesn't have everything in it. Just the parts I feel are Aman related. LG94 Votes, Thoughts and Conclusions: (Ongoing) Reveal hidden contents Day 1: Alv secretly votes for Steel (reasons) Mat votes for Sart (joke vote) Alpha votes for Mat (for voting for Sart / joke) TKN votes for Alpha (continuing the joke) Kas votes for Archer (RP / poke) Archer votes for Mat (minor elim!Mat tell) - (elim!Mat gets annoyed easily?) TJ votes for Archer (gut based on Archer’s elim numbers post) Aman votes for Alv (because Alv is too awesome / poke - welcome back vote) Aman votes for Alpha/Aloha (unknown) Kas votes for Alpha/Aloha (joke?) TKN votes and unvotes Mat (unknown) Archer votes for TKN (for unvoting Alpha) Sart votes for DeTess (poke - welcome back vote) - (DeTess will always be Rand to me) Araris votes for Archer (agrees with TJ’s reasoning) DeTess votes for Mat (feels Mat is being defensive) Archer revotes Mat (doubles down on elim!Mat tell) Kas votes Steel (unknown / joke) Kas votes Alpha (not feeling Steel vote?) - (Suggests to vote DeTess due to past game read) Mat votes DeTess (Feels DeTess is acting the same way they did in another game when Elim) Alpha votes Steel (best guess) Aman loves the tie between Mat/Alpha/Archer and DeTess (No elims in group?) - (Claims joke a couple posts later) Kas votes for Aman (Sick!Kas is sick - brain fried) Aman votes for himself (FOR THE TIE!) Aman votes for Mat (unknown / self pres?) Archer votes TKN (suspicious TKN only seems to be talking about/to Mat) Mat votes Archer (self pres) - (willing to vote DeTess or Ash) Archer unvotes TKN (misread posts / read) Ash votes DeTess (likes the arguments against them) Fae votes for themself (New player nerves?) Alpha votes DeTess (wants vote too mean something) Devotary votes Mat (For a 3 way tie / make Mat choose self pres vote?) Archer votes DeTess Kas secretly votes for Mat at some stage during cycle. Final Vote Tally: (As per Write-up) DeTess (4) - Archer, Sart, TheAlpha929, Ashbringer Matrim's Dice (4) - Amanuensis, DeTess, Devotary of Spontaneity Archer (3) - Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, |TJ| The Last Fae (1) - The Last Fae Steeldancer (1) - Amanuensis (0) - Kasimir Thoughts: Kas’ vote moved from Aman to Mat by secret vote (self claimed) Hidden vote on Steel from Alv (self claimed) Day 2: (No Night Kill) Kas is insane (not a big surprise to those that know Kas) Mat votes Ash (unknown) Ash votes Alv (for being willing to kill Kas N1) - (disproven. Alv would never kill Kas that early) Alv secretly votes for Devotary (reasons) Kas votes Devotary (feels they low efforting) Kas votes Ash (for voting Alv and maybe some other minor stuff) - (feels Ash should’ve gone for Mat instead of Alv due to past game talk regarding N1ing Kas) Archer votes for Araris (rng vote?) Wei votes Ash (feels Ash/Archer team) Sart votes Mat (suspicious of Mat having extra life. Feels elims would have some of those due to mechanics) Araris votes Mat (same reasoning as Sart) Fae votes Mat (new player confusion?) Fae unvotes Mat (???) DeTess votes Devotary (D1 vibes) Alpha votes Ash (for voting Alv) Devotary votes Aman (Claims roleblocking Aman + no kill = Aman evil) All votes after this are irrelevant as foregone conclusion who will be voted out. Past games conclude that Elim/Village voting patterns tainted after reveals. Final Vote Tally: (As per Write-up) Amanuensis (7) - The Known Novel, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, |TJ|, DeTess, JNV, Devotary of Spontaneity Ashbringer (2) - Illwei, TheAlpha 929 Araris (1) - Archer Matrim's Dice (1) - Sart Alvron (1) - Ashbringer Devotary of Spontaneity (1) - Thoughts: Only one secret vote. Would’ve expected more no voters to secretly vote to mess with things. Elims benefit well from doing this. Hidden vote on Devotary from Alv (self claimed) Devotary most likely village due to claimed roleblock on Aman and no Night kill. Possible gambit if Aman needed to leave for Real Life reasons. Unlikely but slight chance. Araris claims to have received Silver Dust from Aman’s corpse Day 3: Sart is killed. Alv is Insane (because of course he is) Archer is Insane (because it was deemed so) Overall Player Thoughts: Aman: Aman - Mat team possible. Aman knowing about Silver Boned Mat would be willing to leave tie. Likelihood >45% Aman - Devotary team possible but unlikely. Devotary had no reason to claim roleblock and throw teammate under bus when other reasons for lack of Night Kill easily available Likelihood <10% Aman - Mat - Devotary team possible. Incredibly unlikely but possible. (Magnificent play if true. Deserve to win) Likelihood <5% Aman - Kas team possible. Obvious collab in thread. Possible cover. Likelihood <15% Only votes on Aman before reveal are Kas and Aman. No conclusions to draw. Aman votes on Alv, Alpha, Aman and Mat Day 1 No votes of worth Day 2 Possible distancing Day 1? (Refer to Profile: Aman for likely odds) Possible no elims voting on Aman as it would be expected for them to do so? Smart play not to? smh alv smh Spoiler Never gonna give you up Spoiler Never gonna let you down Spoiler just smh
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 24 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Perhaps Sart had a Crossbow and shot one of Alv/Araris and they survived, then Sart died to Wrath of Shades? Or perhaps Wrath of Shades only increases next turn. Wrath of shades should only happen when someone dies though, right? Even if Sart had a crossbow he didn't kill anyone so he shouldn't have been shade killed. Is that how it worls @Elandera?
DeTess she/her Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 @Elandera does the shade expert have to specify what they are protecting someone from (so an SE has to say, protecting X from shades, which meant a crossbow could get through?). @Alvron@Archer, Assuming one of you got attacked by the elims, which would you believe to be more likely?
Ashbringer he/him Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 It's when Blood is shed. That doesn't mean a death on normal Threnody, wouldn't be surprised if it didn't need death here.
Alvron Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, DeTess said: @Alvron@Archer, Assuming one of you got attacked by the elims, which would you believe to be more likely? Archer is more likely to have been attacked given they have been contributing to the votes/thread. I would only be a threat if I had a crossbow which given the lack of kill N1, proves I don't have one. (yet )
|TJ| he/him Posted May 1, 2023 Posted May 1, 2023 Okay, I'm so annoyed. I started the game with a Pallid Mask. And I was passing it to Kas last night but it failed because someone stole it off me. If we get to know that the Mask ends up in the hands on an elim at a later stage of the game, we know there is an evil Thief in the game.
Recommended Posts