Long Game 84: A Sel United

[Mat he/him]

Could Devo have self pressed onto Thaid just as easily as Archer? I can't remember the exact state of the votes at the point of her vote, especially with the miscount. That's something that could semi-clear her, imo, because of the preference for Archer over Thaid.

I think Baker's vote is more suspicious than TJ's, because IIRC TJ's vote was before Archer had more than 1 or 2 votes. I think Baker's vote was around when mine was, so they could have seen an opportunity there. I guess another question would be the difference between Thaid and Devo at that stage, it's hard to tell without going back and checking (which I will do, still need to reread D1) because Thaid I think always seemed like he had more votes than he actually did? But if Devo isn't semi-cleared by the Archer vote as opposed to Thaid, this could tie her and Baker together if Baker flips elim.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Devotary. If not Devo, then Mat or Illwei.

[Kasimir he/him]

23 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Somewhere, sometime, Faleast gave a little smile, reaching for that faint Connection to a faraway voice, and for the Honorblade that ten quick beats later fell into his hand. The Bondsmith Honorblade.

”The Words are Accepted, Kasimir,” he said, grinning, letting the Bond flow into the sky. He’d show that Stormfather what good they could do. 

  Hide contents

(For legal reasons, this is at most pseudo-canon, besides for the fact Kasimir’s Words are indeed Accepted - by who, and for what reasons, and what Bonds were created, is up to interpretation )

 

Eight years, Khas thought. Eight years came and passed so fast, in the blink of an eye.

Sometimes, the world gave you pleasures unsought after, unasked for. Friendship: Wurum was an honest smile and five knives in his back; two glasses of wine on the rim of a fountain in a courtyard, nights and nights of conversation and life, the universe, reality, and the future. 

But sometimes, the world could and did surprise you. Sometimes, old acquaintances half-forgotten returned into your life. Sometimes, they brought with them storms of their own invention. Sometimes, they brought more laughter, more boons.

Locke Tekiel had always been a respected acquaintance, a distant ally. Khas had always respected the man's strategic mind, and while they'd been at odds, they'd worked together in the Ghostbloods, and put rout to Wilson once before. He had been absent for years, but the tales had always travelled to him, with the occasional missives. Tales of what Locke Tekiel had done, the various ops he'd run.

Strange what a single year and four months had wrought. Now, Khas would rather face down the storms and the lurking evil with no other man. 

There was Aman. Another acquaintance that Khas had warmed towards. There was a history there, of cooperation, and Khas had watched the op where Aman had defied all the odds and stayed alive while killing all opposition. Had made sarkastic commentary, because that was his wont. The tales carried, too. Sometimes, you were privileged to have existed in a time of legends, in a time where legends were being made.

Now though, there was warm regard, and a wary respect. Khas appreciated the easy way you bantered with Aman; the way doing so seemed to throw out more insights than not. 

And then, there was TJ.

Sometimes, Khas thought, the world genuinely surprised you. Sometimes, you expected that all the laughter, all the joy and colour in the world belonged to the past, that you were only a ghost, an aging relic clinging for some reason to the same old structures, the same old game of finding the spies or the spiked or the murderers or the eliminators hidden among you. 

And sometimes, you discovered new friends, good friends, that life went on, and that life was good.

Working with TJ reminded him of Wurum; the easy way their thoughts complemented each other, the easy way they bantered, the fast rhythm of thought-and-exchange they fell into. Even the way TJ had lured him into complacent trust and then stabbed him in the back, however kindly.

Eight years.

What did he have to show for it?

Khas closed his eyes, drew in Stormlight, felt the storm come to life within him.

He had been missing for so much of that eight years. Had become a different man. He knew that. You could not get the time back; nor did you rediscover opportunities lost.

But there are no wrong turnings, only paths we had not known we were meant to walk.

And we do not journey alone.

If there was one thing he would do, this time, Khas though, with the storm blazing inside him, he would be there for them. All the friends and acquaintances lost, all those laughing and looking on. He thought he heard El out there, though he had not quite seen any sign of her.

As long as it was given him, as long as he drew breath, as long as he lived, he would watch over them, protect them to the best of his limited ability, would give them merriment and laughter. 

A small thing. But sometimes, it was the small things that were most worth doing.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Amanuensis mentioned you in a topic

If I was an elim I wouldn't have been absent and Archer wouldn't have died

I kinda feel the same tbh. For some reason, I expect my first game versus e!Illwei to be very memorable. I hope you give me a good fight when that day comes

So maybe the ranking is more like Tani > Orlok/Illwei > JNV/Sibling for most likely non-voting elims?

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Could Devo have self pressed onto Thaid just as easily as Archer? I can't remember the exact state of the votes at the point of her vote, especially with the miscount. That's something that could semi-clear her, imo, because of the preference for Archer over Thaid.

I think Baker's vote is more suspicious than TJ's, because IIRC TJ's vote was before Archer had more than 1 or 2 votes. I think Baker's vote was around when mine was, so they could have seen an opportunity there. I guess another question would be the difference between Thaid and Devo at that stage, it's hard to tell without going back and checking (which I will do, still need to reread D1) because Thaid I think always seemed like he had more votes than he actually did? But if Devo isn't semi-cleared by the Archer vote as opposed to Thaid, this could tie her and Baker together if Baker flips elim.

TBH I'm willing to believe that Devo is Village. I acknowledge that her response to Experience was anomalous, as well as the fact that Archer tried shielding her by saying a mole being in our doc would mean the elims would be warned of the reaction test. A part of me thinks that was a gambit to force us into misyeeting Devo after his flip but... idk. Her bussing does make sense in that scenario, especially if she has some kind of preferable role. At the very least, Devotary can't be E/E with Striker and Araris, and I'm townleaning both Striker and Araris rn, so...

Gut says Devotary should be pressured today, but that her yeet shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. If anyone is willing to step up from Devotary's Empire and give us some more context on her activity there, I would appreciate it greatly.

Otherwise, Matrim and TJ should likewise be pressured. @|TJ| in particular hasn't said much this game, so if he's Village, I'd love some more thoughts from him. Matrim's already doing work so that's nice. Will evaluate as the day progresses.

 

 

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

If anyone is willing to step up from Devotary's Empire and give us some more context on her activity there, I would appreciate it greatly.

:waves:

Doc is pretty quiet, unfortunately. Quieter than it probably should be. I'm not exactly surprised by anyone's activity, just wish it was more  Myself included

Edited April 5, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Amanuensis he/him]

Weird =\ and sad

My doc is basically just JNV and I now with Sibling's low-to-no activity.

I'd actually have preferred Archer living for a few cycles to keep the doc interesting xD I was looking forward to doing more long term solving, but then he had to vote me for really bad reasons smh

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Weird =\ and sad

My doc is basically just JNV and I now with Sibling's low-to-no activity.

I'd actually have preferred Archer living for a few cycles to keep the doc interesting xD I was looking forward to doing more long term solving, but then he had to vote me for really bad reasons smh

We have one more in the doc, so I'll let you do the math and figure out what that means :P. Bumping up the doc activity is something I plan to do, even if it's just me rambling xD

See but I didn't find Archer's reasons that bad, maybe I just didn't read them close enough

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

We have one more in the doc, so I'll let you do the math and figure out what that means :P. Bumping up the doc activity is something I plan to do, even if it's just me rambling xD

See but I didn't find Archer's reasons that bad, maybe I just didn't read them close enough

Either you guys are Fjordell and four man now you lost Thaidakar, or you're the other four man Empire.

Or maybe you mean you're the four man Fjordell who lost Thaidakar, hence three of you

Edited to add: I too feel you about being the doc's Aan'allein..

Edited April 5, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

They might've looked less bad from like, a not knowing for sure if I'm Village perspective?

But from my PoV, it looked misrepresentative and reachy with multiple holes in logic + the conclusion was just wrong, so I had to decide if this was v!Archer being paranoid and pushing a bad yeet or e!Archer trying to keep me from becoming a loud village voice in thread and doc. I really thought it was the first too haha, but other people decided I was right and voted him out while I was sleeping haha

My only regret is that I'm not an elim too because that would have been such a fun D1 gambit xD

[Quivil]

42 minutes ago, Illwei said:

If I was an elim I wouldn't have been absent and Archer wouldn't have died

If I was an elim I still would have not been on for all of Sunday, but I would probably have been on at least a little more on Saturday. Archer probably would have still died.

 

Teo doc is probably clean now, right?

Do we know who exactly is in all the docs? If so, did I just miss that bit?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Not every doc has claimed, no.

Archer dumped the Teo doc on D1 (Me, JNV, and Sibling are left). I don't think it's wise to clear us all so honestly judge us by the merit of our posts, but I also don't think we are top suspects rn.

Mat/Devo/+1 more appear to be Fjordel.

Kas/Shadow are in an Empire together.

Striker/Baker are in an Empire together.

Pretty sure that's all the claims so far.

Most importantly, we need to figure out if Devo self-prez bussed Archer D1 and if Matrim, TJ, or Striker voted Thaid to save Archer.

@Devotary of Spontaneity my policy on self-pressing is that if a Villager cares enough to vote someone else to stay in the game, I expect them to put in work the next day to prove their alignment. You voted Archer, so I'm giving you more leeway than I am giving players who didn't vote Archer. Would be very curious to hear your thoughts after that flip.

ED1T:

@Matrim's Dice are you assuming you doc has no elims in it or do you think the 3rd person in your doc is more likely elim than Devo?

Edited April 5, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

30 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Archer dumped the Teo doc on D1 (Me, JNV, and Sibling are left). I don't think it's wise to clear us all so honestly judge us by the merit of our posts, but I also don't think we are top suspects rn.

Agreed: don't want to rehash too much, disagree slightly with C1 Shadow in that I wouldn't assume distro. Sometimes the GM does in fact give you the clear, or sometimes the GM creates a lovely pattern of one Elim per Empire...except for the one Empire that's clean and the one Empire that has two in order to hurt players who make the assumption. We don't know the process, so while I would likely have slightly higher V credences in the survivors, the extent to which one's credences should really improve is Orlok's territory because I'm low effort Kas. In my view, the correct answer is that they should only improve modestly, if at all, and I think that's good enough.

(Is it just me or have I infected a decent chunk of SE into using epistemology terms? I swear I see 'credences' more these days...)

Wanted to say a bit more but have to post and leave this due to something coming up.

P.S. Tbf, would suspect that Aman knows my Empire composition - not because of anything sinister but just because I haven't been especially secretive, apart from trying to respect the consensus/lack thereof.

[Mat he/him]

58 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@Matrim's Dice are you assuming you doc has no elims in it or do you think the 3rd person in your doc is more likely elim than Devo?

I think either Devo or the other person could be an elim. I don’t have stronger feelings toward one or another. I still think that due to RNG and my likely poor perception of probability that there is at least one doc without an elim, and since we started with four it’s more likely us than the other five player doc. It’s not really a route of suspicion I’m considering this early in the game because of how little info we have on it.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think either Devo or the other person could be an elim. I don’t have stronger feelings toward one or another. I still think that due to RNG and my likely poor perception of probability that there is at least one doc without an elim, and since we started with four it’s more likely us than the other five player doc. It’s not really a route of suspicion I’m considering this early in the game because of how little info we have on it.

Is this a good time to comment that Malkier is also four people?

I'm...not highly suspicious of the people in Malkier at this point. I light/moderate V read Shadow - with the reservations that Aman mentioned, and my slight paranoia from Shadow mentioning the mindmeld with me. I am wary of Malkier #2 and trying to make my mind up on them. I have no particular suspicions of Malkier #3 and indeed, worry that they may have pocketed me  

[Amanuensis he/him]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think either Devo or the other person could be an elim. I don’t have stronger feelings toward one or another. I still think that due to RNG and my likely poor perception of probability that there is at least one doc without an elim, and since we started with four it’s more likely us than the other five player doc. It’s not really a route of suspicion I’m considering this early in the game because of how little info we have on it.

Fair 'nuff.

@Devotary of Spontaneity same question I asked Mat above; how do you feel about Mat and your third Fjorden? Do you think your doc might be uncompromised? If you had to guess which of the two is a mole, who would you say and why?

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

P.S. Tbf, would suspect that Aman knows my Empire composition - not because of anything sinister but just because I haven't been especially secretive, apart from trying to respect the consensus/lack thereof.

Actually nope I've not thought about it at all cause, like, waste of mental energy? I'm definitely mentally noting down what people are open with, but speculating on unknowns is a distraction when my only goal is finding the elims

The questions I'm asking Mat/Devo about this rn is an example of me doing that. I don't really care about the specifics as much as I do understanding how players view their doc mates. Does an elim try to blend? Do they try to push agenda? Does a townie show paranoia? Etc. I can usually get a half-decent feel off tone or projected direction of intent.

Like I actually called Experience being Village after his... 2nd or 3rd line in our doc? And I think that might be part of what spooked Archer  Exp just kept reinforcing it with effort

Edited April 5, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Quivil]

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

(Is it just me or have I infected a decent chunk of SE into using epistemology terms? I swear I see 'credences' more these days...)

Credences credences credences, credences credences. Credences credences? Credences.

You're welcome.

[Kasimir he/him]

21 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Actually nope I've not thought about it at all cause, like, waste of mental energy? I'm definitely mentally noting down what people are open with, but speculating on unknowns is a distraction when my only goal is finding the elims

Fair — really just more a statement of how obvious I've been. But it's also resulting in my struggling to get accurate reads I think. 

The questions I'm asking Mat/Devo about this rn is an example of me doing that. I don't really care about the specifics as much as I do understanding how players view their doc mates. Does an elim try to blend? Do they try to push agenda? Does a townie show paranoia? Etc. I can usually get a half-decent feel off tone or projected direction of intent.

Like I actually called Experience being Village after his... 2nd or 3rd line in our doc? And I think that might be part of what spooked Archer  Exp just kept reinforcing it with effort

I commented in Malkier after JNV talked about Exp producing six pages of analysis that Exp was very likely Village because given the live nature of doc communication and the editing rules, it would take a very brave Elim to (on the assumption of V Aman) produce six pages of analysis live while you're there

I certainly wouldn't be that man

Bolded responses because on mobile rn. 

[The Baker]

4 hours ago, Illwei said:

Amanuensis mentioned you in a topic

If I was an elim I wouldn't have been absent and Archer wouldn't have died

Spoiler

Illwei

 

1 hour ago, Tani said:

Credences credences credences, credences credences. Credences credences? Credences.

You're welcome.

Spoiler

Edited April 5, 2022 by The Baker

[Amanuensis he/him]

FYI I'm making it my mission to confidently read Baker's alignment off Votes/bread pictures alone

Right now I'm unironically leaning Village for them  

@The Baker yes or no question, have you played some form of Mafia/Werewolf before?

Edited April 5, 2022 by Amanuensis

[The Baker]

@StrikerEZ @Kasimir @Illwei @Tani @|TJ| @Matrim's Dice

Spoiler

 

@JNV @shadow1 @Araris Valerian @Bort @Orlok Tsubodai @The Sibling @Devotary of Spontaneity @Amanuensis

Spoiler

 

 

11 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

FYI I'm making it my mission to confidently read Baker's alignment off Votes/bread pictures alone

Right now I'm unironically leaning Village for them  

@The Baker yes or no question, have you played some form of Mafia/Werewolf before?

 

Spoiler

Edited April 5, 2022 by The Baker
bread.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

You voted Archer, so I'm giving you more leeway than I am giving players who didn't vote Archer. Would be very curious to hear your thoughts after that flip.

Can't think today, sorry. I can't see e!Kas bussing a teammate unnecessarily D1, nor would I see his death as productive.  I swing wildly back and forth on Mat. Voting for Thaid isn't good but he also keeps making wildly high profile and counterintuitive statements in our empire doc that an elim should be more careful about. What does it mean when he says that he doesn't think the elims are evenly spaced in docs because it was true RNG and then in response to my questioning the chances of it being RNG says that in his experience a 2:1:1:0 distro makes sense? What experience is this? But then he also apparently forgot there were roles in the game at all which would be hard for an elim to forget unless they're all vanilla. Guessing three incorrect NK options is just strange. I'm also looking at Bort I think. More maybe later.

[Kasimir he/him]

@Amanuensis - What's JNV's doc activity like, by the way?

[Amanuensis he/him]

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Amanuensis - What's JNV's doc activity like, by the way?

I actually forgot to check the Empire doc today, but they were around fairly often (a little less than Experience and I) and essentially the same JNV as always, personality wise. Why do you ask?

Edited April 5, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

I actually forgot to check the Empire doc today, but they were around fairly often (a little less than Experience and I) and essentially the same JNV as always, personality wise. Why do you ask?

I think one way or another I should get off my Devo and Bort focus, and I'm sort of uselessly paranoiding on Malkier #2 so I've decided to stop that for the moment. Current plan is to just go down the list and sort everyone else and then come back to these guys later.

I specifically ask about JNV because if I were to put JNV in any of my Village-type tiers, it'd be for some good points (one of which Malkier #2 noted) but also because I think the same point as what I mentioned in Malkier w.r.t. Experience could apply to JNV too - would have to be extremely kayana to be active, engaged in live doc conversation (especially if JNV is analysing or solving) in a doc with you, on the assumption you are V Aman (I mark this as an assumption even though, as I've said, that's where my credences are right now.) 

I know JNV's alignment isn't really a big question mark for you, but I want to do my own refresh, and for my own sanity, I don't remotely want to look at Devo, Bort, or Malkier #2 right now and that seemed like something easily verifiable past/by you ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Who needs effort clears when there's 'this would take insane guts to do when Evil'?

[Amanuensis he/him]

IIRC, JNV mostly just gave their thoughts on like, general strategy things we've been discussing (as opposed to analysis like Exp was) - I'll have to peruse the doc soon and let you know more detailed specifics, but thus far I would put JNV in like a Null+ tier based on thread participation so far, or Mild Village if weighing the calculations they ran for distro and + general tonal vibes + assumption that Archer was the only Teoish elim.

I could see an e!JNV reality currently just based on the fact it's D2 now and they haven't done much that's stood out to me. I do remember a D1 or N1 post that literally made me giggle for like 2 minutes tho (something about gobbling data like a super turkey) so idk. IIRC, JNV and Archer didn't interact much in doc either, which could suggest partnership, but again... I'll have to go through all that later today since I haven't slept yet and it's about that time now

I also should begin driving discussion again since it seems things have kinda stagnated after getting Archer out D1. I'll admit, I've been somewhat lazy because of the unexpected catch + I kinda hoped I would be dead + I've been focusing more on the MR. Genuinely sad Exp died since he was putting in a lot of effort and I was kinda happy to let someone else take control for a game.

I still need to decide how I feel about Matrim, Devo, and TJ. @Bort too, I guess, since he's not been around for a bit and I can only let players slank for so long before I start wondering about their alignment

@Araris Valerian how are things on your end btw, I kinda feel good about your slot this game so am curious if you have anything insightful to add, or just some elim instincts pinging on anyone?

ED1T:

@The Baker

I'm bored and your schitck amuses me so I'm going to ask you a few things:

1) If you had to describe your alignment (Diplomat or Disruptor) with a picture of bread, what would that picture be?

2) Is the bread (or how you use bread) capable of lying or misleading us?

3) Do you bake anything other than bread? Will your pictures in this game always be plain bread? How do you feel about bagels, croissants, and english muffins? How about naan?

4) How much should we realistically be reading into your bread pictures?

Looking forward to your answers.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Amanuensis