Long Game 84: A Sel United

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Spicy if true, but it could have pre-emptive. I'm confident that TJ's vote came after my wall to Archer and... wasn't TJ's early posts sorta pro Archer?

I personally believe an elim would more likely sheild a teammate when they don't believe their death is a foregone conclusion, otherwise they'd get found shortly after. By the time the Archer yeet gained enough ground, most elims would probably go for the bus. So if anything, I need to go back to reread D1 (ew backreading), but you pointing that out makes me more sus of TJ, not less.

TJ had one game relevant post on D1, so early TJ wasn't anything  

The only mention of Archer in said post is

Quote

I was very mildly v-reading Archer prior to Aman's case, so wanna re-look into it. 

And that is the only mention, despite TJ including a rough reads list in the post.

For me, I get what you're saying, but TJ actually has less content than I was picturing and idk if this one line and the Thaid vote is enough for me to want to vote there. The VC at the time of TJ's vote was

• Devo (3): Striker, Kas, Araris
• Archer (2): Aman, Exp
• Thaid (1): Baker
• Exp (2): Thaid, Devo
• Bort (1): Mat
• Aman (1): Archer

In reality, I think Exp was voting Tani by this point, but nobody knew that so it doesn't really matter. I think that the Thaid vote isn't indicative of e!TJ, since Devo was in TJ's elim reads and if his goal in voting was to save Archer without looking like it Devo would have accomplished that much better.

Also going to note, since I'm looking at it, that Archer and Thaid had the same number of perceived votes (3) at the time that Devo self pressed to Archer. This reflects village on her, I think.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Ninja'd by Kas while editing post...

Okay so I found TJ's D1 posts and it kinda reinforces my gut but in the opposite way of how I remembered. TJ gave a few Village reads (much easier for elims to give reasons for Village reads than to give reasons for false elim reads), defended Devo by saying their Experience vote was odd for Devo but not e!Devo odd, and said they were V-reading Archer initially but wanted to consider my case on Archer more. Despite all that, TJ ended up voting Thaid, who we know was LHF Village, for the exact reasons I pointed out in my doc.

I actually found that post distancing indicative if anything. Promises to reevaluate partner later but is not willing to vote partner right now. Goes for the easiest misyeet possible for reasons that a Villager originally brought up. Also means TJ works on a team with Devo, who I still think would have bussed Archer if she had a role + to shake off some heat.

Yeah I'm comfortable with a TJ vote until TJ does something overtly Village.

Also ninja'd by Mat

ED1T:

@Matrim's Dice the issue I have with TJ putting Devo in his elim reads is that he said it was weird but not exactly e!weird. I feel that's either e!TJ hedging on partner or Village led misyeet. Plus in an E/E world, Devo could have said ahead of time that she was going to vote Archer, which means this could be e!TJ planning to climb down from an e!Devo read after the Archer flip.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Amanuensis

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Anyone got a VC? Just curious....

[Illwei]

Striker is probably village

[Amanuensis he/him]

Striker is thirty for ties aha

At a certain point however, I will need to entertain the reality that he’s open wolfing

If so, very bold and I approve. It's pocketing me so far too

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

LHF

Latvian Ice Hockey Federation?

Help pls

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The VC at the time of TJ's vote was

• Devo (3): Striker, Kas, Araris
• Archer (2): Aman, Exp
• Thaid (1): Baker
• Exp (2): Thaid, Devo
• Bort (1): Mat
• Aman (1): Archer

In reality, I think Exp was voting Tani by this point, but nobody knew that so it doesn't really matter. I think that the Thaid vote isn't indicative of e!TJ, since Devo was in TJ's elim reads and if his goal in voting was to save Archer without looking like it Devo would have accomplished that much better.

I actually disagree with this take. He was slow-walking Devo in the doc (prior to his thread post though I can't 100% confirm this due to no timestamp issues) - I was pushing him hard on Devo, whilst asking him if I was tunnelling all that while. He specifically told me he felt E!Devo would not have jumped on Exp, or at least that it was uncharacteristic. He was waffling on Devo, at the very least.

Going onto a main train attracts a lot of attention, especially if (okay, y'all can stop laughing now) Devo is actually V, which would put TJ in the position of having made a suspicious late vote movement, implicating him in a ML. And if Devo is in fact E (which is still what I think and I'm not sorry that I'm so hellbent on this I can't think straight anymore), then there's no way in hell he's doing that. 

Aman was never realistically going to be a C1 starter without something especially damning. Something Orlok once told me comes to mind here. Realistically, he just has the Exp, Bort, and Thaid side-trains if he wants to create potential padding for if Archer continues to be under threat thanks to Aman.

Edited to add: I guess you could theorise E!TJ, knowing my insistence Bort was Evil, could choose to slot onto Bort, banking on possibly bringing me with him in doc by giving me one of the trains I wanted. As an argument meant to indicate V!TJ instead. But I don't think E!TJ has reason to do that too much because I'm already on Devo, and the other main guy who'd fished for Bort takers earlier, Araris, was also on Devo. No real reason to expect we'd be induced off since we were already voting for a train we wanted, rather than for consolidation.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

LHF = Low Hanging Fruit

I have the benefit of knowing Thaid is Village now, but I was explicitly dangling him with my fourth "I wanted to fit in" vote + "overselling my confidence in e!Thaid" as Archer put it

I feel TJ might have taken the bait. I don't really believe V!TJ decides that Thaid is the best wagon in any D1 tbh. It's just too easy and safe.

ED1T:

Quote

Real Vote Count:

• Archer (4): Kasimir, Amanuensis, shadow1, Devotary of Spontaneity
• Thaidakar the Ghostblood (4): Matrim's Dice, Archer, The Baker, |TJ|
• Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian
• Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
• Amanuensis (1): Archer
• Tani (1): Experience

Looking at this (totally not innacurate :p) VC again...

Striker/Araris can't be E/E with Devo

Devo most likely busser if she has a role

Matrim, Baker, and TJ all sus for voting with Archer, for Archer, on the LHF wagon

Yeah still content with my vote and since Kas brought it up, e!TJ would clear Kas and I can stop worrying about him plus we can ask a Dakhor Monk to coinshot Devo tonight too

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Illwei]

I don't believe that Archer died D1 without it being a bus. It's normally hard to get Archer exed at all imo.

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

LHF = Low Hanging Fruit

I liked it better as Latvian Hockey Federation

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I feel TJ might have taken the bait. I don't really believe V!TJ decides that Thaid is the best wagon in any D1 tbh. It's just too easy and safe.

My main issue with that is just really that we talked about it when he was reviewing the thread, so theoretically, before he voted. IDK, to me I do find it reason enough to at least give Thaid time, given his displayed behaviour in MR57 (learning; more attempted reasoned participation), and the possibility of player complaints (regarding Thaid's playstyle) escalating to the IM, which might have incentivised more behaviour revision. I mentioned as much to him, and his reaction was non-committal. Sure, it's a lot of mights, but was this really the best train given those factors? Eh..........

I know he specifically thinks he has a MR57-related reason pertaining to Archer and his vote. I've asked him if he has a way to talk about it that doesn't reference MR57 as he forgot that Orlok exists. (Wow, rude, TJ bhai, rude  )

Edited to add:

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I don't believe that Archer died D1 without it being a bus. It's normally hard to get Archer exed at all imo.

Okay, so you aren't down for a TJ train. Who are you down for? What's your current take?

Edited April 5, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

I edited my last post btw

@Illwei do you think Shadow pulled a Schweppes with Kas being Cape for the second game in a row? Or do you think Kas pulled a QF59 by following Shadow onto a D1 bus? Or do you think Devo self-pressed because she has a role and Archer didn't?

Or, perhaps, do you think I'm an elim that did wolf theater with Archer in our Empire doc and in thread, and I never actually intended for him to get yeeted D1 but the village ran away with my accusations while I was asleep? 

[Kasimir he/him]

13 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Yeah still content with my vote and since Kas brought it up, e!TJ would clear Kas and I can stop worrying about him plus we can ask a Dakhor Monk to coinshot Devo tonight too

ngl this is kind of disturbing  

[Amanuensis he/him]

 I'll kill anyone Kas wants if it means clearing Kas 

[Illwei]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I edited my last post btw

@Illwei do you think Shadow pulled a Schweppes with Kas being Cape for the second game in a row? Or do you think Kas pulled a QF59 by following Shadow onto a D1 bus? Or do you think Devo self-pressed because she has a role and Archer didn't?

Or, perhaps, do you think I'm an elim that did wolf theater with Archer in our Empire doc and in thread, and I never actually intended for him to get yeeted D1 but the village ran away with my accusations while I was asleep? 

I think it's strange that your first action into the day was to start looking directly at the cw

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

I think it's strange that your first action into the day was to start looking directly at the cw

I think that you're dodging my question

[Illwei]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I think that you're dodging my question

I think therefore I am

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I think therefore I am

*resisting urge to clear Illwei for being funny and indignant*

I'm serious tho, if you think Archer was bussed, I want your opinion. You know Shadow and her play as well as I do, are more likely a better judge of Kas than I am because ThreadPMBros bias, and are good at mafia in general, so if you're Village, I really would appreciate your perspective on both of them + Devo. Even your thoughts on me would be useful for me.

What about looking at the CWs is weird exactly?

[Illwei]

Still think people shouldn't have claimed the places things. there's a mistake that people make where they think that having all the information will help them solve the game. Mass claim mass claim yada yada whatnot

nothing is strange about looking at the counterwagons, I just think with

also mat's d1 kinda mrr

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

 I'll kill anyone Kas wants if it means clearing Kas 

Why would it clear me? 

It's really just disturbing for reasons to do with eight years of SE and some foundational thoughts that inform my approach to the game. Having that challenged is disconcerting and a part of me would almost rather you are E!Aman doing it deliberately rather than have to deal with having a core element of my SE approach challenged.

Honestly I don't think I am in a good position to judge TJ because all I can think of is wanting him to be V but also some paranoia/discomfort. If he's V, I really want to know before EoD so I can pull off, because the alternative would be me having paranoided on a bro and gotten him MLed for no good reason. I don't know how it's possible to screw up worse in a SE game if so :/

I know I have lost any squeamishness I had on the lynch and kills years ago but for some reason, this game especially, it's deeply bothering me to push my own bros.

Which I guess is another way of saying that if he's V, I don't even think I'd have the heart to fight you and will want death. 

I'm aware of our exchange in QF59 about ML guilt and I stand by it. I also assess that in my current state, nothing is more likely to drive me back in that hole than if I ML a bro right now, whether I am trying to get rid of it or not :/ Request that if the worst happens, you refrain from drawing alignment inferences from it to me.

Is why I am begging @|TJ| to please, please, get back if V bhai because I don't want to have to do this :/

Small part of me wants to selfishly just vote Devo so I don't have to think about it or face this, but the only two things barely holding me back are her point on Mat (though it's weak) and the fact I'm legit worried I've lost all rationality where she's concerned.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Kasimir
justification

[Mat he/him]

15 minutes ago, Illwei said:

also mat's d1 kinda mrr

oh I’m aware

Working to make up for that :D. I have much more time this cycle than I did on D1 so that’s helpful.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Vote Count:

• Illwei (2): The Baker, Tani
• |TJ| (2): Kasimir, Amanuensis
• StrikerEZ (1): Araris Valerian
• Araris Valerian (1): StrikerEZ

 

That seem right to everyone?

[Kasimir he/him]

I keep rereading the doc conversation where TJ:

• Thought Diplomat was a role
• Did not realise that the Elims were Disruptors and thought Exp was arguing against a plan

And I don't know.

I don't know if I'm so desperate for him to be Village that my standards are floor high and I'm willing to take something like this as being indicative of TJ being Village.

Would E!TJ say this to deepwolf pocket me?

TJ

Devo

[Amanuensis he/him]

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I keep rereading the doc conversation where TJ:

• Thought Diplomat was a role
• Did not realise that the Elims were Disruptors and thought Exp was arguing against a plan

And I don't know.

I don't know if I'm so desperate for him to be Village that my standards are floor high and I'm willing to take something like this as being indicative of TJ being Village.

Would E!TJ say this to deepwolf pocket me?

TJ

Devo

I guess I need the context to accurately judge like

Did TJ think his role was Diplomat, and that's how it came up? Or was this after someone flipped Diplomat?

[Ashbringer he/him]

Technically GM PM data is not supposed to be discussed.

(TBH I don't see anything that could be judged from it, because of there being no secret things, but... exercise caution )

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I guess I need the context to accurately judge like

Did TJ think his role was Diplomat, and that's how it came up? Or was this after someone flipped Diplomat?

D1, likely prior to his thread post but I can't 100% confirm this due to the timestamp issue. Let me try to summarise the conversation - I know we can't c/p, but I can do that at least.

TJ: "Hi Kas, gonna read the thread now."
Kas: "Yo bro, k you do you"
TJ: "I'm just gonna put my reads here like a commentary while I go through the thread"
Kas: "Yeah ok you let me know if you need me to create another appendix section for your thoughts too"
TJ: "Aman, Striker, JNV look Village from end of page 2."
Kas: "Why V for Striker? He's Null+ for me but recognise I could be suppressing the read strength because it's broadly the same half of the axis for us."
TJ: "Purely gut because Striker only had one page 2 post, but also he feels Village in page 3."
TJ: "JNV's run-on sentences make them difficult to understand but I like their point on Empire connections feeling similar to Evil connections, and that's Village."
Kas: "Agreed."
TJ: "Thaid seems more concerned than usual about votes on him, as compared to when he got MLed as Village."
Kas: "Not sure if Evil Thaid or a mod spoke to him. Because I received complaints about Thaid's playstyle in my MR."
TJ: "Oh ok."
Kas: "I'll probably mention it in the thread carefully [so as not to cross the streams with a game I'm currently running.]"
TJ: "That Devo vote feels weird. And where did Exp even claim Evil?"
Kas: "In RP. He RP claimed as a Disruptor. As I mentioned earlier in the doc, I think this is bait or Exp being spicy. Honestly it's just gut but that's what inner Meerkat says. The whole thing is just weird and you shouldn't take these claims at face value."
TJ: "Uncharacteristic for E!Devo to jump on it."
Kas: "My theory is that E!Devo thinks it's a reaction test and feels the most Village thing to do is to jump right on it. Devo is a cunning player, and the fact that no one else bit is alarming and flags her response as anomalous. If I can sense something is wrong, so should Devo."
TJ: "Just read to the part where Exp says he has reasons."
TJ: "Smh I didn't even realise the Elims were called Disruptors. Just thought he was against a plan."
Kas: "ffs bro why are you trying to make me derpclear you"
TJ: "lol legit bro I read 'Emissary of the Disruptors' and thought he disagreed with his doc mates on something."
Kas: "Bro, I know you love deepwolfing but you don't need to commit this hard. My heart wants you to be Village so you don't need to try to make me derpclear you."
TJ: "looool for real man, I even derped about something else."
Kas: "Do I even want to know."
TJ: "While reading my GM PM-"
Kas: "Bro, please don't say anything. This is not a secure doc, or at least we cannot assume it is one. Cooperation is one thing, roleclaiming another."
TJ: "Eh I was planning to roleclaim anyway."
Kas: "BRO WHY"
TJ: "If there is a leak, we know it's from here."
Kas: "Judging you so hard right now."
TJ: "If there are Elims here they'll want to prove there's no leak and not kill me."
Kas: "Your kill wouldn't scream for explanation. And if Shadow or Orlok are E and you are V, they know I want them to be V and might hesitate, even though I've committed to activating vengeance mode if you or Orlok get killed."
Kas: "Look, if you want to do this, don't let me stop you. But I'm required to point out I don't think this is a good idea. You know my views on opsec."

He references his GM PM text a bit more than I'm comfortable with in the following conversation so I'm going to step lightly around it. In short, in the following discussion, he expresses that his derp was thinking that Diplomat was a role rather than an alignment.

Checked in with El to make sure I'm walking the tightrope fine.

[Amanuensis he/him]

TBH more than the Disruptor thing, I appreciate TJ going though his process in doc a lot; it's more than I've seen in thread and that's the main reason he's in my PoE

Devo currently the better yeet by far.

(also sorry for being low-effort, but that's probably how I'm gonna be for a bit. Want other people to start taking initiative like Experience did D1/N1. I'm tired of wallposting :P)

ED1T:

Inb4 E!TJ V!Devo xD

Edited April 6, 2022 by Amanuensis