Mat Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Three Elenion votes in a row! Doesn’t make me nervous at all. Yeahhhh 2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: I got a PM item C1 which Mat can confirm This is true. 2 minutes ago, Kasimir said: We also know Thaid was V. To me, this reads that one place to potentially look for Elims is on the side-trains, because once again, low investment. Thaid's vote switch was clearly pure dgaf. In the same vein, while I still don't understand how Striker thought he was breaking a tie, I do read him as lightly V for that move - an Elim has no reason to make a last minute switch since he should be indifferent between both trains. I... still don't understand how a v/v trains means elims are more likely to be on side ones but this is an old argument that doesn't need to be rehashed And I'm voting Len so that's contradictory. But I'm liking the vote less now. 3 minutes ago, Kasimir said: 8 votes on Ash? Really? Leaning V on Ash for this. Who the hell would...Ash, you absolute madlad. I'm more than just leaning V :P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elenion Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 There's probably nothing that I can do to stop my impending lynch, unless some madlad put a million votes on themself, but I'd like to put down my suspicions before I go. Even if it is Ly/Lo this cycle, I want them recorded so I can see how right/wrong I was. Top Suspicions: Striker, Araris, Xino Middle to slightly suspicious: Flamingo, Mat Village: Kas, Ash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xinoehp512 Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Reveal hidden contents The lifeless rabbits lay, moving. The living raven flew, crooning. The lifeless rabbits one by one did see the raven up above, carried by a summer storm. Thunder Strikes, and lightning roars, and lifeless rabbits live once more, to gnaw on bones and use Commands and do whatever one demands. But be cautious: for they are known to get… out of hand. @xinoehp512! How’s that for a story? More of a poem but there’s some narrative there. These words are accepted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elbereth Posted March 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said: I think I misunderstood the rules. Don’t we still get extra votes if we get the item? XD You only get extra votes if you get an item, and you get them the next cycle - i.e. if you bid on an item C1, you had votes added to you for the vote count at the start of this turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flamingo Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 Changing my vote Xino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said: These words are accepted. Nice! Hmm. Striker or Len. How about Striker? Araris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Elbereth said: You only get extra votes if you get an item, and you get them the next cycle - i.e. if you bid on an item C1, you had votes added to you for the vote count at the start of this turn. I am confusion. I got an item C1 but no extra votes C2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 Just now, StrikerEZ said: I am confusion. I got an item C1 but no extra votes C2? You have 2 extra votes in the writeup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xinoehp512 Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) Sure, Striker. Do I hear one story and one good reason to vote on the target? We are out of time. Edited March 5, 2022 by xinoehp512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: I... still don't understand how a v/v trains means elims are more likely to be on side ones but this is an old argument that doesn't need to be rehashed And I'm voting Len so that's contradictory. But I'm liking the vote less now. I point you to E!Archer And E!Karn. And E!Bip. Not to resurrect LG83 and cross the streams too much, but my point is that this clearly bears out in practice so I think it's a reasonable inference to make. Okay, so if you like the vote less, can you propose an alternative candidate? Voting pattern wise, I'm okay with someone joining me on xino. I think Araris could also use pressure - I'm not really gung ho on Len at the moment, and Ash is a non-starter for me. I have no real read on Flamingo which is concerning. I lean V on Striker, so there's that. And...I'm not sure how I feel about you, honestly. I know you pushed this line of reasoning as a Villager, but if there's a side-train Elim, I'm definitely strengthening my suspicions of you because that's where you're going with this. And yes, you are voting side-train guy, Len, despite thinking Elims are likely to be on the V/V main train. I'm not seeing your logic here. Urgh. And I think Striker might be dying? And I V read him more strongly so lesgo. Xino Len I hate this, JSYK >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 RBing xino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 Hey so I’m an idiot who voted 6 to get the Hazecrusher so I’m gonna use it on Flamingo and see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said: Do I hear one story and one good reason to vote on the target? We are out of time. The judge for my brother really loved their performances? Don’t vote me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elbereth Posted March 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 THE CYCLE IS OVER!! PLEASE SHUSH NOW See y'all soon Or, most of y'all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elbereth Posted March 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 Cycle 4: Ash to Ashes Ashbringer was killed by the exe and by the eliminators and was a Villager! Vote Count Ash (6): Striker (5): Ash, Xino, Elenion, Elenion (4): Mat, Araris, Kas, Striker, Xino (4): Flamingo, Flamingo (2): Mat (2): Today’s Items Creepy Doll Ability: Roleblock Description: It’s a spooky doll. Perhaps it’s special? Every time you look it gets creepier. History: In QF 26, this doll was passed around every two cycles. It did nothing and provided no hint as to why the Shades kept killing, but it did get progressively creepier each time it was passed. All Consuming Rabbits of Doom Ability: Bid down Description: A lot of rabbits. A lot. History: LG38 was a game in which players chose all the rules and could propose new ones each cycle. One of those was that everyone got a rabbit, and you’d get more if someone ever held a male and a female at the same time. They also ate an item or pancake (don’t ask) from you each cycle, a rule which was quickly changed because they were eating everything. Mercenary Cupcakes Ability: Protect Description: Some very fancy cupcakes History: In LG 33, everyone who didn’t pay for lodging at the University had to sleep on the streets and risked a 25% chance of death every cycle. Aman never sent in lodging orders and survived on the streets for 6 cycles in a row by bribing mercenaries with these cupcakes, before finally being killed by an assassin. Player List @Ashbringer Villager @Matrim's Dice @xinoehp512 @Araris Valerian @Kasimir @_Stick_ Villager @Thaidakar the Ghostblood Villager @StrikerEZ @Elenion @Flamingo @Amanuensis Villager @Experience Villager Cycle 4 has begun and will end at 5:00pm Eastern time. The public vote count sheet is here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 Okay, well I'm back to voting Elenion again. I guess it's lucky the elims went for Ash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 Ash took one for the team in both the exe and the kill. I’ll miss you Ash. O7 Elenion. I really want you dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Elbereth said: killed by the exe and by the eliminators RIP Ash, at least he soaked up a kill :P. So... I guess Flamingo and xino didn't kill? I'm actually really confused about Ash claiming Hazecrusher because that's definitely what I got for 2 but I guess I don't understand the bid mechanics I gotta disappear for a bit but I'll be back before EoD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 Ash was Elim killed and exed. Immediate thoughts are that the Elims weren't really on the ball at EoC to change the kill target. I seem to have missed Striker's vote on Len in my personal count which is embarrassing and probably indicates I should not be a hipster and should just use the nice spreadsheet El has prepared, even though it can't do vote progression analysis. I think there were xino and Flamingo RB claims which means that neither of them put in a kill last cycle. Here's a quick and dirty reads list with very few gradations - I need to commit to redoing a bit of vote analysis and rereading the thread because I miss things. I guess the problem of a BT is you have to decide what to do with your one hour, whether it's more fine-grained vote analysis, or just keeping up with the thread. (The perfect is the enemy of the good and all that.) C3 EoC is worth a look at, and so I'll go into it. In the spirit of my C3 vote before I thought Striker was in danger, I'm going to vote for xino - same deal as before, Len has one vote's worth of pressure on him, so I'm fine with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xinoehp512 Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 Elenion. Bid starts at one good reason why to vote on the target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flamingo Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Ash was Elim killed and exed. Immediate thoughts are that the Elims weren't really on the ball at EoC to change the kill target. I seem to have missed Striker's vote on Len in my personal count which is embarrassing and probably indicates I should not be a hipster and should just use the nice spreadsheet El has prepared, even though it can't do vote progression analysis. I think there were xino and Flamingo RB claims which means that neither of them put in a kill last cycle. Here's a quick and dirty reads list with very few gradations - I need to commit to redoing a bit of vote analysis and rereading the thread because I miss things. I guess the problem of a BT is you have to decide what to do with your one hour, whether it's more fine-grained vote analysis, or just keeping up with the thread. (The perfect is the enemy of the good and all that.) C3 EoC is worth a look at, and so I'll go into it. In the spirit of my C3 vote before I thought Striker was in danger, I'm going to vote for xino - same deal as before, Len has one vote's worth of pressure on him, so I'm fine with this. I concur Xino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 @Kasimir you didn’t actually post a reads list?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elenion Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 Looks like the elims messed up. I'm expecting 3 elims for a game this size, according to the square-root rule, and since the elims double-killed Ash we have one more chance to catch an elim before the game is over. Araris previously criticized me for talking about Ly/Lo, but anyone looking ahead could see the signs. Now let's look at why the elims killed Ash. I, for one, was viewing Ash as likely village, and it seems like the elims agreed with my logic. Yet again, I don't think it was a good choice for Ash to wager so many votes, because it gives the elims effectively a free kill by creating a mislynch, but it seems the elims bungled the kill and gave us another chance. Here are my reads so far, copied from yesterday: Top Suspicions: Striker, Araris, Xino Middle to slightly suspicious: Flamingo, Mat Village: Kas I'm williing to join a vote train on any of my top 3 suspicions, but I guess I'll start with Xino because that seems to be where the votes are falling. @xinoehp512 I raise you at least a reason not to vote on me: if nearly half of the living players find it a good idea to vote on me, that means that the eliminators must be OK with me dying. What are the chances that every single surviving villager concurs that I'm an elim? Not likely - the elims want me mislynched in order to win the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Elenion said: @xinoehp512 I raise you at least a reason not to vote on me: if nearly half of the living players find it a good idea to vote on me, that means that the eliminators must be OK with me dying. What are the chances that every single surviving villager concurs that I'm an elim? Not likely - the elims want me mislynched in order to win the game. You’d be surprised how many times this exact scenario you’ve mentioned as not likely has been happening lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flamingo Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Elenion said: Looks like the elims messed up. I'm expecting 3 elims for a game this size, according to the square-root rule, and since the elims double-killed Ash we have one more chance to catch an elim before the game is over. Araris previously criticized me for talking about Ly/Lo, but anyone looking ahead could see the signs. Now let's look at why the elims killed Ash. I, for one, was viewing Ash as likely village, and it seems like the elims agreed with my logic. Yet again, I don't think it was a good choice for Ash to wager so many votes, because it gives the elims effectively a free kill by creating a mislynch, but it seems the elims bungled the kill and gave us another chance. Here are my reads so far, copied from yesterday: Top Suspicions: Striker, Araris, Xino Middle to slightly suspicious: Flamingo, Mat Village: Kas I'm williing to join a vote train on any of my top 3 suspicions, but I guess I'll start with Xino because that seems to be where the votes are falling. @xinoehp512 I raise you at least a reason not to vote on me: if nearly half of the living players find it a good idea to vote on me, that means that the eliminators must be OK with me dying. What are the chances that every single surviving villager concurs that I'm an elim? Not likely - the elims want me mislynched in order to win the game. That is a good point about the votes, but it could be misdirection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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