Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 Just now, Ashbringer said: … hmm. Well, I’d encourage interest. How much did you bid? just one, didn't want to be too risky that early in the game. Might vote higher this cycle, don't know yet.
Experience he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 Ummm...something just occurred to me. Mat, why would you only bid 1? You must have known that there was very little chance you would end up with the item you bid for?
Elenion he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 On the topic of votes, I'm not sure whether we should concentrate our votes on one person or whether we should spread out. If we spread out, we increase the chances of voting on an elim, but we give greater weight to the votes that we bet to get items. Do y'all think the strategy that the elims are using is to get a ton of items or get none? If we assume 3 elims, 1 of them has to use their action for the elim kill, so that only leaves 2 actions to go. Most of the items are more useful for the village, like roleblocks which can stop the elim kill and PMs which help disseminate information. So I'm thinking that the elims won't go for items, and as such we need to concentrate our votes on 1 or 2 players in order to avoid lynching players who risked a lot of votes in order to get items.
Experience he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Elenion said: On the topic of votes, I'm not sure whether we should concentrate our votes on one person or whether we should spread out. If we spread out, we increase the chances of voting on an elim, but we give greater weight to the votes that we bet to get items. Do y'all think the strategy that the elims are using is to get a ton of items or get none? If we assume 3 elims, 1 of them has to use their action for the elim kill, so that only leaves 2 actions to go. Most of the items are more useful for the village, like roleblocks which can stop the elim kill and PMs which help disseminate information. So I'm thinking that the elims won't go for items, and as such we need to concentrate our votes on 1 or 2 players in order to avoid lynching players who risked a lot of votes in order to get items. I think we need to end up concentrating on just one player, because if we don't then someone's bid votes *cough cough* will cause them to die. :P.
xinoehp512 he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: A bandwagon is A disappointing way to Go out. Don't vote me. There once was a player named Mat Who joined a BT on a Sat. He wrote a quick poem For xino, to bribe 'em In hopes that he wouldn't go flat Shhh I'm not a poet Flat obviously is a symonym for dead Ftr the haiku should not be treated as me defending myself with the reasons listed, it was just the right amount of syllables :P. I do think the Thaid/Len votes were weird though. Excellent wordage. Elenion. Do I hear one haiku, one limerick, and one acrostic?
Mat he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 Just now, Experience said: Ummm...something just occurred to me. Mat, why would you only bid 1? You must have known that there was very little chance you would end up with the item you bid for? Like I said, I bid 1 because at the time I submitted the action I had like 3 votes on me :P. Of course I knew there was little chance but I'd rather survive without an item than die with an item. By the time the votes on me had gone away I had forgotten about the bidding, and can you really blame me? :P. 1 minute ago, Elenion said: On the topic of votes, I'm not sure whether we should concentrate our votes on one person or whether we should spread out. If we spread out, we increase the chances of voting on an elim, but we give greater weight to the votes that we bet to get items. Do y'all think the strategy that the elims are using is to get a ton of items or get none? If we assume 3 elims, 1 of them has to use their action for the elim kill, so that only leaves 2 actions to go. Most of the items are more useful for the village, like roleblocks which can stop the elim kill and PMs which help disseminate information. So I'm thinking that the elims won't go for items, and as such we need to concentrate our votes on 1 or 2 players in order to avoid lynching players who risked a lot of votes in order to get items. The items are useful for the elims in that if an elim has it, a villager doesn't. I think that going for items will be determined by personal playstyle rather than team dynamic but idk Part of me wonders if it's even worth trying to exe anybody when Ash/Kas/Exp will just have 4 or 5 votes anyway >> I think if we want to control the exe outside of bidding we need a train that large.
Ashbringer he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 Hmm. I’ll go Thaidakar Experience. Decent reasons to fear Aman, and I think bid 1 is better than nothing. Plus e!exp -> e!thaid more than the other way around. Oh, and self-preservation via the transitive property.
Experience he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Like I said, I bid 1 because at the time I submitted the action I had like 3 votes on me :P. Of course I knew there was little chance but I'd rather survive without an item than die with an item. By the time the votes on me had gone away I had forgotten about the bidding, and can you really blame me? :P. The items are useful for the elims in that if an elim has it, a villager doesn't. I think that going for items will be determined by personal playstyle rather than team dynamic but idk Part of me wonders if it's even worth trying to exe anybody when Ash/Kas/Exp will just have 4 or 5 votes anyway >> I think if we want to control the exe outside of bidding we need a train that large. Votes are added the next cycle tho... And it's more than 4 or 5 :P. 2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Hmm. I’ll go Thaidakar Experience. Decent reasons to fear Aman, and I think bid 1 is better than nothing. Plus e!exp -> e!thaid more than the other way around. Oh, and self-preservation via the transitive property. This doesn't make sense though. Aman was changing votes to keep me in the tie instead of being the lead train. Edited March 5, 2022 by Experience Voicing was a bit strong
Elenion he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 I need to put forward a credible alternative to myself for the lynch, so I'm going to vote Experience with Ash. I'm reading slightly village on Ash, so I'm fine voting with them, and any lynch is better than lynching me, seeing as I'm one of the few players doing analysis in this game.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 I feel like a bid of 1 is an elim play, they have a better feel than other players which items might go uncontested.
Kasimir he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 Alright. This is a quick and dirty vote movement analysis because this is a short cycle and I suspect that going fast is better than being thorough. I want to mostly look at the EoC flurry of activity here: Quote Experience (4): Flamingo, Mat, Stick, Striker Stick (4): Araris, Experience, Kas, Thaidakar Flamingo (1): Xino Mat (1): Elenion This is our final clean votecount. Gonna note we have two main possibilities to consider: Exp-Stick E/V and Exp-Stick V/V. Quote Experience (3): Amanuensis, Flamingo, Mat Stick (3): Araris, Experience, Kas Elenion (2): Ash, Striker Mat (1): Elenion Ash (1): Thaidakar Flamingo (1): Xino Kas (1): Stick Pegged to this point of the cycle, but let's work backwards a little. Right before that, we have Aman going on Experience, followed by Experience on Stick - @Experience, you mentioned something about E/E gut with regard to Stick, what did you mean? My personal read is that there's an element of self-pres to Experience's vote, but Experience could have gone on Len but went on Stick instead. Potential E/E with Len, but since I currently have mild Village credences on Len, that's a non-starter for me. Back past the Aman point: Stick votes on Experience. This is essentially a self-pres vote. Aman rewards this by unvoting from Experience to create a tie again. Presumably to force reactions. Quote Experience (3): Flamingo, Mat, Stick Stick (4): Araris, Experience, Kas, Thaid Elenion (2): Ash, Striker Mat (1): Elenion Ash (1): Thaidakar Flamingo (1): Xino Thaid hops onto the Stick train, citing boredom. Potential shade of E/E here if Experience is E - with the caveat it depends on how risk-averse the Elim team is, since Thaid's vote pushes Stick before Experience. So Aman re-votes Experience to push the tie again. Quote Experience (4): Flamingo, Mat, Stick, Aman Stick (4): Araris, Experience, Kas, Thaid Elenion (2): Ash, Striker Mat (1): Elenion Ash (1): Thaidakar Flamingo (1): Xino Ash unvotes Len. @Ashbringer, why? Tempted to think this looks good because there's literally no reason not to leave a performative vote there for E!Ash. But IDK. Maybe this is a bridge too far :| Then Striker goes onto Experience, breaking the tie. @StrikerEZ, didn't you say you like ties? What is that >> Since Stick is V, I feel that E!Striker would have gone elsewhere - if Experience is E, then Striker basically isn't making sense. And if Experience is V, E!Striker has in my view little reason to get invested - late vote movements often look weird as all hell. And then Aman unvotes Exp again, creating a tie. I think that's most of what I get out of this - slight Wormmon for Ash and Striker, a bit ? over Thaid, and...let's see how many people ninjaed me in the meanwhile :|
Elenion he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Experience said: Elonian e/e with Ash? If I were e/e with Ash, I wouldn't have mentioned them so obviously in my post. I could see a world in which one of us is an elim, but not both.
Ashbringer he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 Just now, Experience said: Votes are added the next cycle tho... And it's more than 4 or 5 :P. This doesn't make sense though. Aman was literally changing votes to keep me in the tie instead of being the lead train. More lingering reasons from the MR than reasons now. But Aman also switched to keep you from falling behind. Spoiler 1 minute ago, Kasimir said: Alright. This is a quick and dirty vote movement analysis because this is a short cycle and I suspect that going fast is better than being thorough. I want to mostly look at the EoC flurry of activity here: This is our final clean votecount. Gonna note we have two main possibilities to consider: Exp-Stick E/V and Exp-Stick V/V. Pegged to this point of the cycle, but let's work backwards a little. Right before that, we have Aman going on Experience, followed by Experience on Stick - @Experience, you mentioned something about E/E gut with regard to Stick, what did you mean? My personal read is that there's an element of self-pres to Experience's vote, but Experience could have gone on Len but went on Stick instead. Potential E/E with Len, but since I currently have mild Village credences on Len, that's a non-starter for me. Back past the Aman point: Stick votes on Experience. This is essentially a self-pres vote. Aman rewards this by unvoting from Experience to create a tie again. Presumably to force reactions. Thaid hops onto the Stick train, citing boredom. Potential shade of E/E here if Experience is E - with the caveat it depends on how risk-averse the Elim team is, since Thaid's vote pushes Stick before Experience. So Aman re-votes Experience to push the tie again. Ash unvotes Len. @Ashbringer, why? Tempted to think this looks good because there's literally no reason not to leave a performative vote there for E!Ash. But IDK. Maybe this is a bridge too far :| Then Striker goes onto Experience, breaking the tie. @StrikerEZ, didn't you say you like ties? What is that >> Since Stick is V, I feel that E!Striker would have gone elsewhere - if Experience is E, then Striker basically isn't making sense. And if Experience is V, E!Striker has in my view little reason to get invested - late vote movements often look weird as all hell. And then Aman unvotes Exp again, creating a tie. I think that's most of what I get out of this - slight Wormmon for Ash and Striker, a bit ? over Thaid, and...let's see how many people ninjaed me in the meanwhile :| How are you still managing to wall post. Kas chill pls More seriously: I unvoted Len because I couldn’t tell if it was still 3-3-2-2, and didn’t want someone jumping out of the woodwork to add another player on the tie. Plus watching to help Aman keep the tie. I’m on mobile so typing unvotes takes a while. 1
Mat he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Elenion said: I need to put forward a credible alternative to myself for the lynch, so I'm going to vote Experience with Ash. I'm reading slightly village on Ash, so I'm fine voting with them, and any lynch is better than lynching me, seeing as I'm one of the few players doing analysis in this game. Exp is not a player that needs to be voted on to die, from what I'm hearing :P.
Kasimir he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Ashbringer said: How are you still managing to wall post. Kas chill pls Painfully, with five cups of tea to wash away the exhaustion and painkiller fog. And I lost my chill the moment EoC shenanigans happened and I got flashbacks to LG79 Vulture-Lion-Dragonfly dance as well as MR56 C2 :|
Ashbringer he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 I do think finding an Elim in low bids is likely, but we’ll see some of that in the next 5 minutes.
StrikerEZ he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 Experience @Ashbringer @Kasimir I think I remember you guys were the ones who brought this up, but I voted on Experience like 90% because I wanted a tie. Now it's because I want to go for the other half of the tie. And also because it is in my best interests to have a very consolidated train.
xinoehp512 he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 Full disclosure: I'm only barely paying attention. Nonetheless, here are my (admittedly mostly arbitrary) reads, in case anyone was interested. Village Spoiler @Matrim's Dice @Kasimir @xinoehp512 @Araris Valerian @Ashbringer Eliminator Spoiler @Thaidakar the Ghostblood @StrikerEZ @Elenion @Flamingo @Experience
Kasimir he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 Just now, StrikerEZ said: Experience @Ashbringer @Kasimir I think I remember you guys were the ones who brought this up, but I voted on Experience like 90% because I wanted a tie. Now it's because I want to go for the other half of the tie. And also because it is in my best interests to have a very consolidated train. Bro. I checked the VC. You broke the tie against Experience, how the hell does that count as making a tie? Striker.
Ashbringer he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 Just now, StrikerEZ said: Experience @Ashbringer @Kasimir I think I remember you guys were the ones who brought this up, but I voted on Experience like 90% because I wanted a tie. Now it's because I want to go for the other half of the tie. And also because it is in my best interests to have a very consolidated train. Yeah, but you broke the tie. In favor of not exeing the now-confirmed-villager, yes, but still.
StrikerEZ he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 Just now, Ashbringer said: Yeah, but you broke the tie. In favor of not exeing the now-confirmed-villager, yes, but still. Okay, in my defense, I thought I was saving the tie when I typed that post.
Experience he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 It was a fun ride y'all. Just so y'all know, I bid 7 for the roleblock item (cuddles I think it was). I'm using it on Ash, (I don't remember if it happens before I die but don't have time to check). Peace out. Striker
Mat he/him Posted March 5, 2022 Posted March 5, 2022 xino is probably village for that list Not that he was being voted on
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