|TJ|

I keep coming back to this post from Mistfallen Soldier. Posting a reads list of every player in the game 2 pages into it reads like 'wanting to be seen as village' to me. Also, we used to have a meta of allowing new players some room to breathe and letting them get into the game a bit, which is why I am not interested in a Wahr execution, at least not in C1. Same for Qian.

Everything you know is here in this thread - RP is not a requirement at all, you can just play it as a pure forum mafia game.

If you have any questions and want to make any changes or any rules you're tentative about, the best person to talk to would be your IM @Araris Valerian.

I'm in the middle of moving houses, so my activity is going to be low for the first couple of cycles. I want to argue that the Shardbearer is a straight-up SK, they are not neutral-aligned at all. They win when they reach parity with both village and elim, and the only way for us to win with the Shardbearer is if it is 1-1-0, which means it needs to be 2-2-1 or 3-1-1 in the penultimate cycle, and if we mis-exe in this cycle, it banks on the Shardbearer hitting the remaining elim instead of the villager for us to win, which is not really a position I want us to be in. Also, reaching that particular state inherently means Shardbearer needs to kill a lot of villagers because of our initial numbers. [We also need to ask the GMs if they would allow joint victories. If we kill the last elim and the Shardbearer reaches parity with the village in the same cycle, would it be a joint victory? Same the other way, if the elims outnumber the village and Shardbearer gets parity with them, are they joint winners? Executions are not in the Order of Actions, do they happen at the same time as kills? @Hoid Slayer @TwinStorm] More importantly, there is also the danger of conversion, so we need to be wary and be on the lookout for changing behaviour in our village reads and ascertain where that change is coming from. Speaking of conversions - @Hoid Slayer @TwinStorm, do we get to know the value of X now? How many conversions do the Regals have?

Hello! Welcome to SE! When the game begins, Hoid Slayer will send you a PM with your role (if you have any) and your alignment. You just need to reply to that message with your action order. For example, you have been given the Sneaky role: You just send a message in the same PM Hoid Slayer sends you. You can say something as simple as - "Target TJ"

*checks which game it was* ahhh LG104, actually it's one of my less cruel ones :P. Also, I'm pretty sure we've played quite a few games together :P.

Lowkey really like playing QFs because of the fast pace, sign me up as Taxil! All the best GMing!

Should be - @Steeldancer (non-Sanderson slot not available though) @xinoehp512 has two games up there. @The Wandering Wizard also 2 slots. @Elandera @Ashbringer @Aeoryi

My biggest defender, in fact. Thank you so much, you were amazing to play with, and my guesses for Beagle were all veterans. Hope we get to play many more games together :') Genuinely a surprise to find you were playing. I've missed playing with you, dude! Hope you stick around for a few more! Of course, it was >> I cannot shed my analysis style no matter how much I try >> I did a lot of bullet points and numbered lists before though I do not recall using arrows before, I thought it was just about different to throw people off, hehe @Kasimir, Rollover Exe Crew group goes right up there with AG8 KGB group :P. Thanks for a chaotically fun game, everyone! @A Jo in the Bush, @The Unknown Medallion, congratulations on hosting your first AG! GMing is a tiring job and all the players make sure that it is not an thankless job as we are very grateful for your extremely fun set-ups. Glad to have been the first to predict and stick with 2 v!CS :P. I agree that this game would have been much more balanced with the exclusion of Kandras and only 3 v!Lurcher. Even with the game as it was, without the mass claims I think the game would have dragged to at least 2 more cycles. However, I disagree with the necessity for anti-hammering mechanics. I understand that it can be frustrating to the GMs for things to change late in the cycle (I say this as a GM who has hosted a 77-page QF). But the argument that we have 48 hours to come to a conclusion about the exe does not hold water because things are constantly changing and everyone is just responding to the changes and to the new information. Elims have the night kill power to silence the villagers. Villagers can only win the game by solving it, so they should not be penalised for try-harding in my opinion. Perhaps a post-cap in the last hour of the cycle? But that is extra work for the GM.

Village - TwinStorm, Mippo, Exp Most of the others would be in a null or null+/- ; I'd lean slight village on Jo maybe. Also IHAT. @Ookla The Vessel Of Honor, is there any specific reason that you claimed you were a Smoker in 2 different posts? @Doc12, this is regarding your case against Broken/IHAT last cycle. Don't you think KaladinSOHS has been behaving sort of similar and showing equal behaviour? I found both of them behave sorta similar. I think I agree with Stick here slightly that IHAT's "you cannot be Rioter" argument against Fura is way too TMI-y to come from an elim. Also the logic they follow - "claiming rioter is evil because it is easy to claim your action by pretending everyone is Smoking" is village-leaning mentality imo.

I wouldn't have advocated for it if so many people hadn't claimed already or if the number was not exactly 8 Smokers lol. I believe knowing if elims removed no roles is equally important as well. And gimme a few for your second question, I'm going through the threads again.

Yeah, the Coinshot is an example, but a good one because in such a case, there is certainty that they cannot Steal any more roles. I've just explained why it would not be possible for them to remove roles at all because of the exact 8 Smoker claims. We do not have missing roles. The only assumption here is we do not have an unclaimed Smoker, which is easy to confirm because there is no advantage for an unclaimed Smoker not to claim now. If they did not donate max Smokers, we should be seeing the presence of vanillas, which we haven't. So I disagree that the assumptions are baseless. I think assuming that we do not have a 9th Smoker and we do not have vanillas are actually quite reasonable assumptions. I'm not intending the 'if they stole x roles' analysis to be useful now. It will be a reference for the future to come back to, to see which case makes sense and then you can match what has happened to then see how many claims were truthful.

Continuing because I was on my work computer and had to leave - 8 number of Smoker claims is interesting because it means 1 original default Smoker existed and elims donated 7 Smokers. This in turn means 7 vanillas existed before the donation but after all the role removals. If 7 vanillas existed after removals, the other 9 HAD to be power roles. And because there are only 9 power roles, it means there were NO role removals. This is a good thing to rule out, because it means elims allocated all their points in stealing the roles. [If there are any more unclaimed Smokers, they should claim now imo. There's no advantage of an unclaimed Smoker now.] This is important because we can make the following deduction - At the beginning of N0, we started with 9 PR villagers, 3-4 (powerless) elims, and 3-4 vanilla villagers. If they stole 1 role (for eg, Coinshot) -> 8 PR villagers, 1 e!Coinshot + 2-3 elims and 4-5 vanilla villagers They would not be able to steal any more roles, so essentially no way for the 2/3 elims to be anything vanilla. The maximum possible Smokers here is - in case of 3 total elims -> 6 (1 og + 5 donated) v!Smokers exist, 2 Smoker claims are wrong and from the (powerless) elims in case of 4 total elims -> 5 (1 og + 4 donated) v!Smokers exist , 3 Smoker claims are wrong and from the (powerless) elims We can then go on and extrapolate this for whatever number of roles we assume they stole.

For there to be a +1 vote on Araris, there HAD to be a Riot. The Rioter COULDN'T have been Hoid Slayer because the self-vote cancel would have made a net difference of zero. It's not likely that there are 2 Rioters in the game (what is the logic behind the elims donating an extra Rioter? To steal it? If so, why not just steal it directly instead of leaving village with a Rioter?). Then, this Riot we observe is mostly from a Mistborn who rolled Rioter. This narrows the Mistborn(or the 2nd Rioter) to [TUO, Alv, IHAT] among voters and [KSauce, Exp, Honor]. I'm still deciding if this Riot is an evil action or not, time will tell. I'm gonna eliminate the actions the elims did not take - Thug Remove Steal Tineye Remove Steal Smoker Remove Steal Seeker Remove Steal Coinshot Remove Steal Lurcher Remove Steal Soother Remove Steal Rioter Remove Steal Mistborn Remove Steal Obviously, the assumption here is that they just let the Seeker be because they flooded the village with Smokers. No point in Stealing Seeker as well when there is a hoard of village Smokers. Tbc...

Quite possible! Like I said, the combinations are a lot, and monopolizing the kills in the night is a good tactic, but it drags out the game a lot with only 1 kill in the night. The more the game drags on, the more villagers they need to get executed/ the more cycles they need to dodge execution. In my experience, the elim are kinda okay to let the village Coinshot be as long as they was direct the discussion and feel like they can direct the Coinshot through it. False shots from the village Coinshot can sometimes helps us clear a contentious player, but it always helps the elims reduce one of our numbers. It is quite rate to witness a v!Coinshot get accurate kills in a row (but boy, it is a beautiful sight: :P) Right, rollover is at 5am for me sigh ;-; The one that's giving me the most 'kinda elim' vibes is Araris, I'll see if I can stay on longer to see if it changes but beauty sleep is important :P. Have a look out for Exp, usually low activity is an indication of e!Exp. But I really do not want to vote for activity reasons in D1.

I've played with Stick enough to know she jokes about being evil quite a bit :P, I've also played with Stick enough to know that giving (even a tiny) village read to her this early into the game is playing with fire, it's like peeking inside a wolf's mouth, she'll then chomp at her own convenience xD , so I don't usually do that :P. With regards to my question to Drake, I assumed what he meant by "by default" was - with regular player counts we'd have one role reach and if the player count was larger, we would possibly start with more than one role. I did not know about the 'donate spikes to village' part. Then, let the distro mind-games begin! Case - 1: Evil Coinshot Team Let's start off simple. 21 points required to steal a Coinshot, and hence, no chance of any other combination. Lots of kill power but also, leaves Thug and Lurcher in the hands of the village, and no Smoker protection against Seeker. I'd say the possibility is low, but also, it would be the most obvious case to guess as the game goes on. It's a game of luck here as they would need to hit Lurcher and Seeker fast, and hope vote manips fall in their favor if used. Steal Coinshot -> Not likely, favorable in a high risk-appetite team Case - 2: Vote Manipulation Evil Team I saw someone say they doubt the elim team touches these roles, but I actually disagree. It is underrated how brutally effective vote manipulation is in the hands of the elim team. If you don't believe me, ask anyone on the village team from LG83 (not me, I was evil ). If they steal both Soother and Rioter (16 points in total), they can overcome a 3 vote difference and equalize a 4 vote difference. Sure, it will be obvious if this happened, but we still would have to find out the identities of the Soother and Rioter. There could also be a case where vote manip is not needed to save them at all initially, and in one critical junction later in the game, swish, all the votes swiped off. They can make sure they close-to never get exed. Let's say they invest their other points in either removing Lurcher (4 pts) (kills go through) or Coinshot (4 pts) (remove the possibility of killing them in the night), and removing Smoker (1 pt) (making sure their vote manips go through)[yes, I saw someone claim Smoker, but let me hypothesize smh). I know someone might say fear-mongering but I'm sorry, it has to be stated here that this is a very viable elim strategy. Steal Soother & Rioter + Remove Lurcher/Coinshot + Remove Smoker -> Effective strategy, case for caution, case for only 1 vote manip steal with other combinations for a more balanced team also exists Case - 3: Seeker Protection Evil Team This is a bit tricky because of the rule that any role can be added any number of times, because yes, the best way to deal with Seeker is to bombard the game with Smokers. Why would they spend 6/8 points to remove or steal Seeker when they can just do this for free? They could also steal a Smoker and make sure 2 of their members are always hidden. Also, if the idea is to remove Seeker, why not just put 2 more points and use it to hunt for power roles? So, I actually think the likelihood that the game does not have Seeker is very less. They have either stolen it or are using some strategies to combat it [(a)donate Smokers to village or (b)steal Smoker or (c)anything else I cannot think of right now]. If they steal Seeker (8 pts), I kinda expect them to steal Smoker as well (3 pts). If the point is to hunt for power roles, there's no point in letting a village Smoker hinder things for them. Steal Seeker & Smoker -> Nullifies alignment scans, optimum/ideal strategy Case - 4: Zero Protection Village Team Quite simple, they just remove/steal Lurcher and Thug Additional - You can actually merge case 3 and case 4 to form a very balanced team because there would be points for it. Let's say - Steal Seeker (8) + Remove Thug (2) + Remove Lurcher (4) + Steal Smoker (3) -> 17 and they'd still be left with 4 points to play around. I'd say that is a solid team. If they let Seeker be by flooding the village with Smokers, I'd say replace 'Stealing Seeker' in the above with Stealing Mistborn (7) for more variability.

smh what is that tiny font 'terms and conditions' ahh rule >> not my fault -.-' that's... gonna make things difficult but yeah, I don't see why they would add any roles other than Smoker and Tineye, so analysis should still be viable to an extent. My second question is still valid so let me just wait to know if we can confirm if there were no removals last night. oh dear that god-awful where Kas and you jumped me 2 mins into the game >> of course it was fun for you -_-'

From what I can understand of the rules - there can only be 1 tineye, and to further conclude, there are 9 or less power roles in the game with 7 or more vanillas. So, I'm willing to give Fura a very small village lean for that joke. The AUDACITY smh :P, you're not giving us powers. It IS ours, and you are stealing them smh :P. A couple of questions for @DrakeMarshall, before I start speculating on elim team tactics and how they would have spent their points and decided the distro - 1. Are we in the default setting, i.e., all allomantic abilities appear only once in the game? 2. Can we take it as confirmation that there was NO removal of any roles because there was no NPC death mentioned in the write-up?

I'll join as Tyrian :P.

Damn it, I was horribly wrong with one of my reads and absolutely spot-on with my other one xD Thanks for running the game, @StrikerEZ, it was a very fun distro! And yeah, it was fun to plot about with @Araris Valerian and @Doc12. Congrats on the win, guys!

Gotchu, no worries! Nothing really, i don't want them to die. It was a protest vote. My vote to kill would be on KSauce. KSauce = Biplet Walin = TUO TwinStorm Araris Sart Final reads

We're all assuming this is a Claim.

Legacy reads is essential the reads you leave behind you die and evil is just that think you're evil :P. The TwinStorm vote was like I said, out of annoyance. @TwinStorm, sorry just for the future, in case you're village - that type of vote is frustrating because there no way for me to argue against such a post or provide a defense against it or to try and change your mind. And TUO is a claimed Thug?

I don't know what this means, it was Araris who said both were elim shots where I believed KSauce was hit either by village or WGGed. Biplet is my biggest legacy evil read btw even disregarding the upper post.

Are you sure you don't want to do this guys? We can keep at least one of Sart/Araris alive by IKYK and force elims to kill me. It's a good PtV, because it's gonna keep Araris alive longer. We can go for KSauce now and see.