|TJ|

Let's forget about the logical inference for now and see the direction of reasoning Var takes. Step: 1 -> There are Spiked in [Fox, Jox, Antari] because "currently alive players who also received a vote on day 1". Immediately discounts Antari for now. Step: 2 -> From step 1, he considers worlds where I am Spiked and worlds where Jox is Spiked separately. Reasoning for the below is, Spiked have split their vote on day 1 - If I am Spiked, my team voted on [opposite] Astrid train leading to [Fox, Keldorn/Keamen]. If Jox is Spiked, his team voted on [opposite] Lijal train leading to [Jox, Madiane/Mil]. Step: 3 -> He believes Spiked have again split their votes between Derrick's train and his own on day 2 as he looks at day 2 votes. From his train there's only Mil remaining alive, through which he deduces that Mil is Spiked. Step: 4 -> From step 2, he chooses the scenario in which Mil is present, which points towards Jox. I say forget about logical inference because even though he says 'Mil is Spiked in a world where Jox is also Spiked', see the steps of reasoning he takes. He gets to Spiked Jox following the steps, obviously, but in the end, only because he gets to Spiked Mil. *** This is a big issue for me, but the bigger issue is step 1 itself, which is why I had asked Var his reasoning for the same. Claiming that there HAS to be a Spiked among the players voted on during day 1 did not make any sense, especially as it forms the basis for all the following steps. Like, there is no reason why that has to true. I wanted to wait till Var gave his reasoning for it, because I've began suspecting this is exactly the reason why Astrid was killed. Showing Astrid is village simultaneously absolves Var while also giving basis to form step 1 to narrow "alive players to have received a vote on day 1".

"Why?" I was trying to figure out how Var whittled down to choose his targets and I could not reason out why he thought there would HAVE to be a Spiked among players who received a vote by confirmed villagers. Especially as Var's whole analysis was dependent on this assumption, which seemingly was made for no reason. Var is quite sure that Spiked have split votes which leads Var to conclude quite surely that Mil is Spiked. From his previously analysis, he links Spiked Mil with Spiked Jox (which is why I asked the basis for it). He then states he already suspects Mil quite a bit. But then he ends up voting for Jox as that would give more information? He clearly reached the conclusion that Mil is Spiked which then leads to Jox is Spiked. If so, then how does Jox's death give more information? Should it not be Mil's death first? "@Kasimir, @A Jo in the Bush, if Spiked Mil -> Spiked Jox, why does he want to kill Jox first?"

"That was me." I raise my hand, hoping to clear things up. Well, that makes it clear that Keamen could not have been the Spiked killer on both the nights. However, he could still be on the Spiked team without killing anyone. "I also Soothed Madiane on the first night." If she had any allomantic powers, she should also be able to confirm this. To be honest, Var was my strongest village read (which isn't saying much, sadly) at some point yesterday. But I really did not like his entrance today at all. His talking felt a bit too methodical and surgical. That, by itself, was not so bad but Mil joined Var in voting Jox, and it all had a feeling of "let's finish this off". Conversely, I was suspecting (but giving leeway to) Jox yesterday, but it's Var's case and Mil's added accusation that gave me a pause and is making me rethink on Jox. Var's behaviour on the first day is what is holding me back from making a proper accusation. I think Var is someone who follows through his words, both as villager and Spiked. I could see Spiked Var voting on Lijal, poked by you to change his vote to avoid a tie, follows through to avoid the tie, once tie is no longer an option, follows through back on his suspicion. That being said, I do need to go back and check the transcripts again. Maybe I am missing something. I still want to trust Var, which is why I voted Mil over him. "Talk later." Like I said, the thing is, if he's Spiked, he is portraying that he was sincerely suspecting Lijal, but had to change his vote because of your poke. Would it not be suspicious if he did not follow through his suspicion once tie was no longer a possibility?

Heh, quite funny that just as I was about to say that I could see a narrative being constructed nefariously on Jox by either Mil or Var or both, Jox turns on me. I wouldn't say I was satisfied by that. I was giving Jox time for him to get better so I can read him more accurately. I had spoken about him just once after that, and it was because of his vote, and it's the votes that I was analysing. Also as it was night, and I could not accuse someone in the night, could I? As far as I could recall, this is the first time Jox was speaking in detail after that. If I wanted an excuse to vote Jox out without appearing to be a leader, I could have done so after Var's accusation on him. It's been more than 24 hours since Var's accusation, surely I could have just followed Var if I wanted that. "Not really satisfied. I was just giving you time to recover. This is the most you've said since then." I know I've been following and generally been around Keldorn a lot lately, but even so, I could not trust him to such a high level. I wonder how Jox could. "What actions? Do you have something specific?" I just recalled something I was discussing with Keldorn yesterday. "@Kasimir, what do you think of Keamen today?"

Coinshot killed by a Coinshot, hm. Teal's behaviour during the previous days showed he was holding back, perhaps to be careful with his shots. This lines up with the news from Aral. Teal did not shoot anyone during the last night as well. Astrid, instead, was a victim of Spiked. This meant that either there was another Coinshot who also kept quiet till the last night, or more likely, a Mistborn finally got their hands on some Steel vials. Assuming it's the latter, now the question was if this Mistborn was a villager or Spiked. Astrid's death brings up another issue. Why would the Spiked want to show that the day 1 argument was between villagers? Lots to think about.

Strange, their days seemed to end when mine began. I will say this though, if I was awake when Derrick said this, I'd have changed my mind. Probably I also had the wrong knowledge of laws initially, which I realised when I was conversing with Keldorn. I could understand Derrick's state of mind and line of reasoning. Alas... I feel like it's such a village mistake to make, because don't you expect the Spiked to know when something killed or did not kill people as their whole thing is to kill people? That.... leads to another line of thinking. Perhaps the last minute chaos of day 1 was not Spike-motivated to protect Astrid. Perhaps it was Spike-motivated to ensure there was no tie. But how to differentiate between village and Spike motivation here? Both wanted someone dead on day 1. Ack. Maybe, it would depend on the identity of at least one of the Spiked to see how a team including them would be expected to behave. I would be suspecting anyone who voted on Derrick after he admitted his mistake but that would be... Keldorn and Jox. Sigh. Perhaps I can understand preferring Derrick to die over Var. I remember Keldorn was initially on Keamen, and Var was willing to eliminate Keamen as well. Jox was the most hesitant of the three. Something to note and ponder over. "Hmmmmm."

I understood not feeling up for something. I fee towards Jox, I am still wary but perhaps I should give him a bit of leeway. I am not sure about these accusations on Var, though. I feel like he was coming from a good place, wanting us to start off at some place in our investigation. I am not sure about a bunch of stuff right now, to be honest. Madiane's silence reads a bit weird seeming as they were involved in last minute-chaos on the previous day. Should I be funny and join Keldorn in tailing Keamen? Maybe I should. How could he keep his eyes on us if we were tailing him? Perhaps he was walking backwards... But then... eh I really don't like Derrick's vote on Var. "Astrid and Lijal were both equally accused at 3-3, with Var already yelling at Lijal. If Var does not move (and has no info about Madiane's movements), from his perspective, the day would end with a tie and no one the wiser. The only way Var could break the tie was by movie to Astrid to make it 4-2, now killing Astrid. Once Damiane popped in with an argument againt Lijal (4-3), Var could actually target his true suspect Lijal, without the fear of tie and no-death (3-4)." I realise I am speaking for Var, but if I could follow this line of reasoning, why couldn't Derrick?

Poor kid, lasted only one day before getting killed. At least he had a friend when he died, or so he believed... He'd left a book, describing that one day in quite a detail. He was quite vociferous in his opinions and came swinging straight off the gate. I'm not really seeing anything of the sort from Jox here. Perhaps it was the situation that demanded it? We could not speak quite often in such danger and we could only speak when we met in secret, so we had a lot to talk in such meetings. "Kid left a journal for me. Here, check this page and this one. Let me know if you think Jox is showing the same urgency here."

I had made friends with kids before, or rather they wanted to be friends and I merely tolerated their presence. Children usually behaved vastly different than how Jox appears here. "Kid's just weird, he's not normal."

Hmpph, I am not sure if I am supposed to deduce it from the daily notices of Penrod, but it'd be good to make it perfectly clear as he had promised us he would let us know about his findings - if the deaths were from a Coinshot or a Spiked. The only possible way Copper could have been killed by a Coinshot is if the Spiked did not kill anyone [Aral did not mention anything about someone being attacked but survived. Soothers/Rioters cannot affect the Spiked kill]. That would be unusual, but I've seen it before. Well, like I said, it would be good to have an official confirmation. "Aral(@Araris Valerian), did you end up finding if Copper was killed by a Coinshot or a Spiked?" ___ I think I concur with Keldorn. Quite a few possibilities among the trio of Astrid/Var/Madiane, but it begins with Madiane. I'll shadow Keldorn for now, as he tails Madiane, in case he needs any backup. I am very much interested in what both Var and Madiane have to say, with regards to their suspicions for today.

Fox had a lot of internal conversations. Copper's reasoning does not make sense. The baker's kid is obviously going to visit the people he's asked to distribute the breads no, there's nothing suspicious about Jox opening communications with everyone. But I do think, independent and actually different to Copper's reasoning, that Jox had been behaving uncharacteristically. I am not sure if I can pin-point why exactly, perhaps we'll see in the coming days. Coming to Lijal, I remember being back on one of the bandit strongholds in the wasteland, where we had to infiltrate the bandits and rescue the hostages. I had a friend and colleague just like Lijal and she behaved the exact same way back then. Responding to accusations by giving them back and then just claiming that was just her. Perhaps there was a connection there. I am becoming more convinced in her guiltiness. There'd by no one I'd be keeping an eye on more than her as of now. "Watch out for Lijal. She might be trying to get off easy."

This is going to be difficult with everyone speaking indirectly and in hushed tones. Death was nothing new to Fox, having travelled around the wastelands. But it's always different when it occurs in a perceived civilization. He'd investigate, but from the shadows. Working in leadership never ended up well for him. For now, he'd keep an eye out for Lijal. She seemed to be acting a little too scared for his liking. She was overdoing it. He also looked at the person who was accusing him of appearing in his dream. That didn't make sense. But he liked the fellow, and the dream seemed interesting to say the least, so he figured he'd let it go. "Hmph."

Fox wandered onto the Blackkeep square where they were keeping a count of all the refugees entering the town. He wasn't curious per se, but he browsed through the names and noticed that Antari's name was missing. They had entered the town around the same time, him and Antari, and he was quite abnormal to say the least. Was it suspicious that his name wasn't on the list? Ehh, a headache for Penrod (@Araris Valerian), perhaps.

Fox, wanderer, nomad, survivor, a man of few words, looks over Blackkeep. Looks like home for the next few days.

Firstly, I had a lot of fun plotting with my docmates, and I wanna thank Joe for running the game. I'll come back to this again when I'm less busy to talk about how I felt as an elim about the rules. Loved seeing so many new faces and I hope to see you all again soon!

I wanted to leave legacy reads but sigh, too busy at work. The last post from TUO was good. Watch out for vote cancels to frame players. The last cycle's cancellation reeks of that i.e., watch out for pushes on TUO and Striker. Kas is always village and I'm quite confident on Negative Null as well. Watch out for... I donno Aster I guess? I'm always tend to read players who defend me against common consensus and there was some of that by Aster in C2. I get ML'ed quite rarely, so I don't really get to leave legacy reads. Good luck and all the best!

Yeah I'm gonna decline my slot, sorry

Sigh, I really should have removed myself yesterday. It's just making it more tedious for us. Though, from last cycle I'm leaning Striker village because if he was evil, he could have just left his vote there and by some cancellation, could have gotten both me and RBM killed. I'm also v-leaning Kas and Negative Null. Polly to some extent, but I do agree with Kas that the urgency to tag players read a bit of TMI on RBM. Unsure about Aster, TUO and a whole bunch of people. Sigh, this is how we end up with the same situation as last cycle >>

Ugh, cannot wait for the last minute vote shenanigans. I consider myself quite good at getting a correct read on Striker whenever he's village i.e., can correctly spot ML on v!Striker. I've not played with him in a while so while I'm not reading Striker as village currently, village!Striker becomes very obviously village to me, don't ask me how but it's just a thing. So I want to give him more time. TUO I can never accurately read in the beginning stages of the game. RoyalBeeMage How do you read me outside the vote removal? I think that's the only thing I remember you mentioning about me this cycle. Could you switch to RBM?

Hmmm, not sure if the cases are comparable here. No one is aggressively making a case for me to you, and iirc nothing in mech was pointing towards me. I do think you go mech > VCA > post vibes. And I do think I'm at the point of v!Kas because he is all about optimal play and I can't see a world where he foregoes an exe on me just to exe me the next cycle. proactive > stifled discussions

Not really, no. I'm not even really opposing my exe and I don't know who I'd go for so far in the cycle. I'm merely stating what I think might have happened - the 3 reasons (though reason no. 2 is moot now).

It was a new paragraph! >> sorry sorry totally my badddd >>

It's you omg, who else would it be??? uhhhh I went back to my post and - and yeah I can see how it could be confusing, my bad >>

Hmmm? No, I don't think neg null played before. I just have a v-read of them from this game. We always talk about thins that don't make sense because elim teams should behave in an optimal way (just like what Polly said before), but we never know how they actually play. Almost always, the elim teams never behaves the way we expect it to behave and that's mainly due oversight. We don't see a kill? Our first thought is to assume roleblock or a protect wherease at times, it's just the elim teams forget to send in their orders. But my largest proof of this is from AG8/9, the one with an evil Coinshot, when we were discussing the possibility of e!Coinshot and we were seeing only 1 kill in one of the cycles and surely an evil Coinshot means 2 kills per cycle. We disregarded this but I brought it up again because I just thought "what the the e!Coinshot and the elim killer just accidentally submitted the kill on the same person" and that's exactly what it was. That's where I'm coming from. In other news, if deliberate, my vote removal would indicate someone looking for an easy exe, so I don't think TOW makes sense for that team. Doesn't make sense to frame and then come right back in to defend. Also think Polly is village now, the whole devil's advocate post... yeah doesn't seem to coming from someone looking for an easy exe. It's like she was convincing herself.

Yeah, I'm not sure I see the difference between voting me out C1 or the same happening in C2, so I'm not sure about the motives of the vote manip. Venturing a guess, (and this relates to the bolded part in the quote), I could see a team with low thread control go for a foregone concluded exe. Basically, remove the vote and don't really have to think hard about who to vote tomorrow in this cycle. Reason no. 2 would be, they had a vote cancel and they wanted to use it/ didn't want to waste or holster it. In this case, I'd be suspicious of Polly because, if they had cancelled a vote off the Ksos train, we'd all be removed and the only reason they wouldn't want that is if Polly is evil. Reason no. 3 is quite silly but I've been in games scratching my head at things at things don't make sense and it's usually because the elim team messed up. This would actually be my best guess. Sometimes it's just that, elim teams do things that don't make sense accidentally. I don't think Worldhopper ever moved off me, so it's not a timing thing. I don't think anyone ever voted for Worldhopper, so it wasn't the case where they thought they were removing a vote off him. So what I'm thinking is...they just got the wrong name. With all the acronyms and the long names and the new players, I think it's plausible that they sent in the wrong name. In this case, Worldhopper would be village because the elims would know their teammates and would not mistake their identity. In terms of reads, I only have one - I'm leaning village on negative null. After the clusterchull that is the last game, I made an argument that e!him would want to get rid of me asap, so him trying to not get me killed here is NAI, but I feel much better about his read on me and that it's coming from a good place than when compared to the last game. Or maybe it's the guilt talking.