|TJ|

I think the important word here would be effort as in an attempt to save her and we only see it from you at the critical point in the cycle. Sigh, I thought I would have time to go over Mistfallen's posts for Coco but I'm afraid I'm tired and need to head to sleep. Sorry if you're village Coco, I understand the frustration. Heck, I understand the frustration if you're elim too. But I'm just unable to see a world in which you aren't an elim. @Ashbringer, hope you're going for the Stone? And I would recommend @Doc12 to go for the Mask that steals other masks (Circus?) That way, if someone does steal the Stone Mask, we have accountability. Good night, and all the best!

I think that's pretty solid evidence, no? You can't really ask me to ignore a potentially life-saving vote. We look at the evidence and we see what we get. We are pre-flipping Burnt as evil. So, we look back at the cycle in which Burnt was the leading train. We look at the votes and see who protected Burnt, and it gives us you. If Burnt is evil, there HAD to have been some effort to go into saving her and the fact that the only unknown effort we see is from you ( and Archer >>) logically leads us to think that you are paired.

I assumed the player with the second highest vote dies in that case, but @Amanuensis? Like say Coco gets Stone Mask and like 6 of us vote Coco and maybe 4 of us vote Archer I assume the VC is going to be Archer (4) Coco (0) So someone still dies instead.

Ahhh, I had always thought of the tie-break as Loop 5 Day 1, so I was already thinking that all the masks from Loop 4 break anyway but there would be no resurrections and no Mask Sales, so essentially the same thing then.

Admittedly, I have paid the least attention to Day 3-A, so I'll have another look as well. But - isn't it the same thing he did in this game as well? I recall at least 2 instances where he popped in quite late in the cycle with votes. Also, I just thought of something - @Amanuensis, is it possible to give a definitive statement that elims cannot kill themselves? Or at least that they cannot do this in Loop 4? If we vote out 2 of them and they are aware of the impending Day 5, they can just kill the remaining 2 of their team and then Day 5 is just villagers trying to find a non-existent elim. It's a bit game-breaky, no?

The pairings don't make sense among Coco, Doc and Mistfallen. It could be Doc/Mistfallen I guess, but I'm not reading either of them as evil. I'd be leaning TwinStorm between him and Hael. But purely because Hael was part of a tie in D3A and Hoid Slayer's game was not quite villager-y. Like, you can play low-activity and still come across as a villager, but Hoid Slayer was not that at all.

I think Hats might be auto-equip? @Amanuensis?

Postman Receives PMs > Worn Mask Passive Effects > Circus Leader Mask Theft / Keaton Mask Redirect / Bremen's Mask Roleblock > Equip / Unequip Mask > Execution / Night Kill > Great Fairy / Mask of Truth Results > Postman Delivers PMs > Mask of Scents Tracking Depends on the recipient :P.

Hmmm, I would argue that Burnt is on a tier of her own. Not as active as group 1 but not as low-activity as the rest of group 2. While I agree that it is the strategy they are using, this implies that there is no (or a minority of) village-effort in the alive active players and I would not like to believe that. This is why I think there is only 1 in Group 1 And yeah, for the reasons I have stated in my previous post, I don't think Doc and Burnt are paired. of course :P.

Doc's thoughts on Burnt/Mistfallen on D2A. Not quite sure what to make of it. Vote Sequence D2A: Archer -> Wahr -> Hoid Slayer Vote Sequence D3A: TJ Vote Sequence D1B: Wonko -> Burnt This was in Night 1-B^. I think this a very villager-y way of thinking. There is a genuine solving thought-process here to figure out about the alignment of the main trains in the prior cycle. Vote Sequence D2B: Burnt -> Araris Vote Sequence D3B: Coco -> Stick Yeah, I think Doc has been been very consistent regarding Burnt, there's a glaring lack of any evil-seeming agenda, and there's the mind-meld with me in all the matters of Archer/Coco. I considered a Mistfallen/Doc world but there is also a lack of any nefarious intent in their reads/defence of Mistfallen. There is a village read (on Mistfallen) but there is also this hesitancy without coming off as wishy-washy, an inquisitiveness (about Mistfallen) that comes inherently with being a villager. I am quite okay with village Doc.

Well, we would then live (to fight another loop) or die (lose) by my words, yeah. I think this is the singular point of failure in our plan. If Burnt has faked the scan here then we would need to hope that Ash gets the Stone Mask. BUT, when you weigh the possibility of Burnt having 50 rupees with the certainty that Coco has 50 rupees, you always go Coco here. And Coco/Burnt are absolutely paired. ALSO, I still believe Burnt told the truth (about at least buying the mask). If you look at her posts, at least from the later half of the last Loop, there is this urgency to hit the rupee cap that reads very genuine and not faked at all. It would only come from Burnt trying to get to 50 rupees before the start of this loop. On the other hand, Coco has been very lowkey about any mentions of how much rupees she has or what she can afford. I believe we are on the right path. How would this work if I'm not backing Burnt's (fake) scan and pushing Mistfallen right now? The very thing that Coco is doing right now :P. Having said that, I would like to cover all bases. So let's have a look at Doc, shall we?

Cosmetica looked back at the group of people he had just spoken to. He knew this was only the beginning, and that they had a long way to go, but it was a start, and a decent start at that. It would be enough for now. He looked at all the other people still talking to each other. He'd be back and join them again, but his work for the day was over. He'd rest for now, for the morrow was a longer day still and his work was nowhere close to the finish line. *** Night guys! smh sorry, final edit: before i forget, @Stick., what were the two masks you had when you died in Loop 2?

I think it was either they kill Ash or they clear yet another villager by killing them, but it is evident that they needed to kill someone to frame Mistfallen. So cost/benefit thing. They kill Ash, he gets 50 rupees. They kill someone else, they get cleared. They went with the former. The fact that they needed to kill someone shows much they were banking on the frame.

Yes but if we get 2, we can only focus on their interactions with others. Analyzing these interactions is how we'd get our suspects. This game being flipless needs bit of a different solve than a regular game I feel. We do not have full information about whom we vote out, so theory and associations are all we have.

Current working theory is Archer. But like I said I need to re-read, which would be tomorrow. I'm not even thinking of the 4th member because in my head, we don't need it, at least not yet. We exe you and Burnt. D3 does not really matter if you both are evil but we do need another suspect but it is slightly less relevant. If we win the cycle, we exe you and Burnt again. I'm sorry, it is a boring choice but we need to win and if it is the PtV, then it is the PtV. We cannot take a risk trying to hunt the 4th elim in that cycle. Then we would win Loop 4 as well. By then I hope to have zeroes in on the 3rd elim at least. There would be some connections between the 3. That is whom we would be voting for in sudden-death. Of course, I will be on the look-out for the 4th team member, but we can win without finding them out. I'll give a detailed explanation when I re-read but in essence, they are playing very very different to the last game in which they were elim, and their efforts to solve the game this time around comes across as very genuine. ed1t: @Mistfallen Soldier, did you ever reveal your Scents targets from Loop 1?

@DrakeMarshall you don't get to spend the rupees you earn today, I just asked so Mistfallen is on 43.

Hmm +10 makes it 47 worst case. Cutting it close...

TUM, this is what I meant. They would not all vote on Mistfallen so as to not out themselves, but here I read Coco as dropping crumbs/testing waters for a future Mistfallen vote. ed1t: Yeahhh, I realised and mentioned as much to Archer earlier. He's a post-D2 discussion :P.

@Doc12?

Page 16 if it helps Also, SMH no one corrected me. I just realised that the 10 rupees cap is per cycle and not per turn >> So the math on Burnt's purse is wrong but for the better. Turn RP Posts Discussion Posts Purchases Rupees Cumulative Accurate D1A 2 3 ? 5 5 10 N1A 3 2 ? 5 10 D2A 1 5 - 6 16 20 N2A 4 1 - 5 21 D3A 0 3 - 3 24 28 N3A 4 1 - 5 29 D1B 5+ 3 20 -12 17 18 N1B 3 2 - 5 22 D2B 1 4 - 5 27 28 N2B 4 2 - 6 33 D3B 0 3 - 3 36 37 N3B 4 2 - 6 42 Do we know the Bunny Hood claim for Loop 2?

Stick wanted Ash to do a reaction test in the thread, to inform you all that me and Stick elim-slipped in the dead doc. Ash misunderstood and thought Stick asked him to inform the thread that I had elim-slipped in the dead doc, which is what he did. ALSO, you HAVE access to the dead doc SMH I just realised xD

smh justice for the poor >>

The Stone is going to be grabbed today as in D1, we know this for sure - meaning Burnt cannot buy it and will always be votable. I am not advocating for a shot in the dark like with Doc (at least until I get the time to ISO him). I am quite confident in v!Mistfallen. I am not simply voting on Coco because she has funds for the Stone. She fits the elim team I am hypothesizing as well. Vote out Burnt -> Coco buys mask -> ? Who do we vote out? Who then makes sense in a Burnt/Coco team? No one is really convinced about e!Archer. Vote out Coco -> Someone not Burnt buys Mask because Burnt has no funds for it -> Vote out Burnt -> Revaluate in D3 An idea... @Amanuensis, can someone who does not have funds for a Mask go for it, win the RNG, but obviously not having funds for it, the Mask returns to the supply?

Bro obviously not everyone would follow immediately, that would be outing the whole team (Looking back, I do wonder if I should have stayed quiet to look if anyone would push Mistfallen, but in order to convince y'all to vote Coco over Burnt I needed to post my thoughts as soon as possible). Bolded mine is exactly my point. The teammate who can afford Stone IS Coco. If Mist is an elim, the easiest would be to exe Burnt because that is who the 50-50 is. Not bring another person into the equation. Even forgetting all that, just go through a few of Burnt's posts. There is this urgency in earning rupees in her posts, but there is no urgency in solving at all. My assumption is they put forward the plan to "exe them both" to guarantee an elim death, then push/bus the elim who got the Stone on the final Day for the win. They banked really hard on the village only focusing on Burnt/Mistfallen in this cycle which would have allowed for the other elim to get the Stone and even if we pushed an exe on them D3, they don't die and we lose. Also, could you explain the 50% bit? I think this is more likely than we think it is. I was thinking Burnt would not have been the option to give the Scan result if if she was in the running for Stone but what if they were confident that we would go for Mistfallen? Uhhh, why so? They buy it D1 and equip it N1, so they would be invincible from D2 onwards, no? *** Cosmetica woke up to a severe headache. He did not remember anything from his previous life but he knew he was killed in his sleep. All because he was absent. He forgot things. Well, it was not his fault! If he couldn't be there, how could he be there? No matter, I will show them in this life. Just when he had walked around to gather info and had made his thoughts known, they had killed him. He remembered a friend he had in another life. A long time ago. A friend he had almost forgotten as well. Mel would know what to do. He would know the exact words to speak. He would make them understand. No matter. He would try his best. He would speak.

Oh btw, happy birthday @Divergent! I tried to pocket-watch Burnt, and I was quite lenient with what is considered as 'discussion post' and this is what I got - Turn RP Posts Discussion Posts Purchases Rupees Cumulative D1A 2 3 ? 5 5 N1A 3 2 ? 5 10 D2A 1 5 - 6 16 N2A 4 1 - 5 21 D3A 0 3 - 3 24 N3A 4 1 - 5 29 D1B 5+ 3 20 -12 17 N1B 3 2 - 5 22 D2B 1 4 - 5 27 N2B 4 2 - 6 33 D3B 0 3 - 3 36 N3B 4 2 - 6 42 Like I said, it could be an overestimate and obviously, it's not considering PMs and stuff but yeah, slight possibility of Burnt hitting 50 this cycle. Obviously though, Coco is ahead by quite a distance.