|TJ|

We should start looking for our next MR GM. The list says - 1. and 2. as @StrikerEZ 3. @Kasimir/ @Claincy 4. @xinoehp512 5. @Elandera 6. @The Wandering Wizard Then we have 2 @Archer games, followed by @Through The Living Skies (Aeoryi) and @DrakeMarshall.

bruhhhhh if that was the case they would be aggressively againt each other. burnt herself is literally advocating for both their deaths.

Huh, that is indeed true... You don't believe Coco is evil? And I've been thinking Coco is evil since I've been back in the game. And ehh, I think you're a problem for another day tbh. Like I said, it would be revisiting Doc, so we will see. It would always be a thing for D3C, the first 2 cycles HAS to be Coco/Burnt and I believe that, in itself, is winning. I can look for it when I have time to re-read but I didn't see it at all. I am not talking about just votes, it's way to you guys read and analyse each other as well. Besides, I am sorry to keep repeating but Mistfallen is very clearly village. Absolutely fair. I might have missed it then, whom did you scan in N2?

Which is why I think e!Archer. They needed 5 village deaths with e!Archer and I assume the Ashbringer kill was to frame Mistfallen (and also possibly bring Ash's rupee count down). ed1t: do you think the Loop 2 dead doc is pure then?

Btw I do think it's quite a clever way to force at least one misexe. In the name of "maximize the chance of winning", you put forth the recommendation to exe both yourself (Burnt) and Mistfallen, then you need only one more misexe to win the game. Which is why I am stressing the importance of looking at associations, because sure, you exe Burnt and Mistfallen. Then what? Who do you think is the elim among those? We've already had cycles where both were either leading the wagon or had quite a few votes on them, so there's close to nothing new we are going to learn from the cycles we are presumably exeing them. If you want to kill Mistfallen, make a team (of at least 3) around, leading to or leading from Mistfallen that makes sense. Same if you want to prefer Burnt. I cannot stress this enough, we CANNOT exe both. Sure, it's guaranteed to give us an elim but it also guarantees an ML (agreed with Drake that it is absolutely not e/e). You have heard my reasons for preferring to kill the Burnt side of things and you have seen my proposed team of Coco/Burnt/Archer (and also why I prefer to kill Coco first). Now, admittedly, I am slightly less confident of e!Coco -> e!Archer so I will be re-evaluating that while also re-looking at someone like Doc who was firm village in my books. I think I am quite confident of Archer being the most evil out of everyone who died in Loop 2. Divergent and mine were similar thoughts and he was quite villager-y in the doc. I'm leaning village towards Stick as well. Drake would not have killed himself because I don't see how he was quite sure of a village exe on D3B. Perhaps banking on the confidence of a v/v Blast occurring? But eh, not going to entertain those thoughts now. But hitting [Coco/Burnt/Archer] this Loop is absolutely winning imo. ed1t: also yes, pls someone figure out who has more rupees - I might be wrong in my assumption that Coco has more than Burnt.

This was my case for a Coco/Archer team which I had posted in the dead doc - The latest quote was when Archer was in the lead with Wonko. It’s weird how the read on Archer goes from suspicious to leaning village without any reason. Speaks for/defends Archer in reply to Divergent’ question that Archer has been jumping between votes. Interesting… In general, very much tip-toeing around giving Archer a read. Very on-the-fence hesitancy the whole game. And then of course, we have Archer’s ping for Coco to self-pres. Coco made it 3-3 Archer-Wahr in D2A, a crucial juncture vote. Archer saved Coco in D2B. Archer and Coco very clearly paired. Archer blasting Araris was a clever way of getting himself in the pool of "cleared players" while also making sure to presumably kill a villager without fully clearing them (you Blast Araris, you can still put forth an e!Araris case as Araris is not fully cleared. you kill Araris and you're fully clearing him). Burnt is more likely to be lying as well. We are in the Loop where we HAVE to kill 2 elims. If you catch an elim in the act, and you know they are going to deny it, you make your case as believable as possible. Imo, a villager gives a history of actions here to ensure their case is solid and there is no chance for elim to slip through. If Burnt is evil, then chances of e!Coco significantly increases as she voted Divergent to protect Burnt. e!Coco then signifies e!Archer because of the connections I mentioned above. Burnt/Coco/Archer is the way to go. BUT, I do think we should prioritise Coco over Burnt and I do think the ploy from Burnt is so that we concentract on Burnt/Mistfallen so that Coco (who has clearly earned enough rupees) can buy the Mask that makes someone un-exe-able. Coco Stick asked Ash to say that I had e-slipped just as a reaction test. But I'm revealing that because you guys have reacted and we cannot afford any more distractions. More thoughts to come about other players but I'm at work so brb...

I'm probably heading off to sleep in ~45 mins, let me know if there is greater inclination to exe Burnt. I think I'm almost at the same level of suspicion between Burnt and coco.

If it helps, I had not read any of the current cycle posts as I started my read back from D2A and the subsequent analysis.

Ash has shifted off of Coco and is voting for me now.

they have had quite a few votes on them no? or so it feels. I don't really care about the content of the post except for the fact that he sussed Wonko. it's just really had to think of an elim doing that in the last moment before it was revealed that Wonko is dead. and it's just one of the examples that I found them to be village. valid about your edit and how you feel about his reaction to your push. we found mistfallen together last game, no? i donno they feel quite a bit different in this game comparatively.

A small example for Mistfallen's villager-ness - This post at the very end of N1B about Wonko, I don't think an elim ever makes this, commenting about their kill just before it happens. If they do, they are doing it deliberately to get village-read. Seeing that Mistfallen has not really brought it up to 'show' they are village, I am good with moderately reading them as village.

Added!

@Ashbringer, psst, update your list

Which format would you like a slot for?

SMH, it did not merge >> I should be active around this time every day from now on. Again, I would not be around for rollover because 3AM, but I should be active for about 3-10 hours before rollover every day. Thoughts about this cycle so far, Araris and Mistfallen are absolute NOs. I am looking mainly between Coco and Burnt. Coco is connected to Archer [D2A vote], Coco is connected to Burnt [D1B vote], Archer is connected to Burnt [D1B vote]. So, [Coco, Burnt] with an outside chance of Archer. ed1t: after that, it's stick and hoid slayer.

edit: just waiting for someone to post then i'll give me thoughts on the cycle so far.

Day 1-B: Mistfallen jumps to a 2-0 lead - votes from Wonko and Ash. I'm going off the assumption that Divergent is evil because I have no idea why they would say that Hael is evil here. Wahr makes it 3-1 (araris on divergent). Stick makes it 4-1. @Archer, I'm trying to solve Coco, what exactly do you mean re: quite part out loud? Doc votes Wonko, I think I'm okay with moderate village read on Doc at this point. Elims usually feel someone is a lot more village than they actually are, especially if they had started discussing kills for the night. It is weird for an elim to vote for the same player that they decide to kill later in the same cycle. I'm also okay to village read DrakeDragon8 (funny because Drake is a Hoenn Elite 4 member specializing in Dragon-type Pokemon), Coder was quite villager-y in the beginning as well. Burnt votes Mistfallen. 5 and a bunch of ones. I was wondering how/when the train changes but Wonko shifts from Mistfallen to Stick. 4-2. Something I've been noticing the whole game - Coco has this thing where they agree or make it clear that they side with something that is obvious and already a common consensus. This has been happening repeatedly enough that I do elim-read this now. Burnt unvotes Mistfallen. Hmm, lots of math in this post and obv math is evil but Burnt feels quite genuine in this post. Maybe. Could be because of the pushback against a Mist exe in the thread and they were asked to back the vote but eh idk. 3-2-2. (Mistfallen-Stick-Burnt) Hael votes Divergent and brings them into the mix. 3-2-2-2. Burnt votes me here. I don't know, I keep flip-flopping about them. This feels like an LHF vote, where they don't know who else to vote for, and I was an easy target. Doc votes Burnt and it's 3-3-2-2 now. (Mist-Burnt-Stick-Divergent) Ash moves from Mist to Burnt. 4-2-2-2 Burnt's lead now solidifying. TUM votes Divergent. 4-3 Coco votes Divergent. 4-4. Ash moves off Burnt to vote me. 4-3 Wonko votes Burnt to create the tie again. Archer is the decisive vote as he moves off Burnt and onto Divergent. 5-3. Ash back on Burnt to make it 5-4. Okay, so the shift off Mistfallen was triggered by Wonko, whom we can assume as village. Hael is the one who makes Divergent a viable option. Doc ties Burnt in the lead. Ash solidifies Burnt's lead. TUM and Coco votes ties Divergent. Here, the proponents of vote changes are all seemingly village. Hael is village from being a part of TUM tie. I am reading Doc as village. Ash and TUM are conf. village. The only unknown for me here is Coco. So, if the major vote changes were all village-motivated, there is a solid chance that Divergent-Burnt could have been e/e. Suppose it's not, and suppose one of them is e: (a) If Divergent is evil and Burnt is village -> Burnt was leading 4-2 and the votes from TUM and Coco make it 4-4. ANY vote from this point onwards should be seen as an attempt to protect Divergent. But the only votes we see are - Ash to vote from me, Wonko votes Burnt (again, village) and Archer to vote ON Divergent. So where is the effort to protect Divergent then? This makes case (a) quite unviable. (b) If Divergent is village and Burnt is evil -> Burnt leading 4-2, so all votes after this point is to protect Burnt. TUM is village but Coco's vote would then be seen as a teammate's vote. Archer's last minute change would also mean teammates vote. The question then arises - why was Archer parked on Burnt for so long? I guess the team could be Burnt, Coco, Archer + 1 but hmmmm need to think about it. Obviously, case (b) is a lot more viable than case (a) I'm thinking if it could be v/v, since vote changes being village-motivated could also mean a v/v train. Let's see -> Village reads: TUM, Araris, Wahr, Ash, Hael, Doc, Drake, Mist If we are assuming the v/v case, then Burnt is added to the above list, which leaves me with Coco, Stick, Archer and Hoid Slayer... That is not a good list imo. It's likely someone on my village reads is not village and the first to drop out of it would be Araris but it still does not make a good 5-person pool. This is my likelihood tier -> Case (b) > Both Evil >= Both village > Case (a) Case (b) and Both Evil required e!Burnt. Further, Case (b) also required e!Coco. Both Evil would absolve Coco, but the question is 'where is the attempt to save both?'. There was a moment where I was on 2 votes and would have been a viable counter to both of them so what happened? If Both Village, then my first vote would be on Coco and then leads to me revaluating my village reads. All the roads lead to Burnt and most of the logical roads lead to Coco, for me. TBC... need to read Day 2-B and then I'll vote.

Day 3-A: Hael train starts with Divergent TUM train starts with Archer Stick adds on to Hael to create a train ; Mistfallen votes for TUM. 2-2. Coco votes TUM, 3-2 (someone please explain the whole "rupees reset is a good thing if he is village" part pls) Divergent and Araris go back-and-forth on Araris' Mistfallen vote from earlier. Gut not e/e interaction this. Hoid Slayer votes Hael to create a tie. Hmmm, not much changes in terms of my reads. I think Mistfallen had relatively lesser activity, which is possibly why I was feeling the absence of their posts. Araris and Doc are still village I think. Hael should be super village given there was no attempt to break the tie or to push TUM further into the lead. I still do not have a solid elim read. TBC...

Ehhh, gun to my head if I had to put your in either category, it would be village ( I think the whole EoC thing with Doc reads village) but it's ??? because of other interactions like movement from other players when you're in the lead. But, I am splitting up my posts for rupees (high time smh) so you will have to wait for me to finish reading other cycles

Okay, starting my re-reading from Day 2-A (and assuming Wonko is village because irrespective of the alignment of Divergent, we would need to kill another elim to win the Mask this cycle and there is no need to elims to shoot themselves last cycle) - Wonko races to a 2-0 lead with votes from Mistfallen and Araris. Wonko and Coder vote Archer to make it 2-2 A point here that Archer is keeping track of everyone's rupees. He says trying to get rich is NAI, but keeping track of everyone's rupees (the time investment to do it) is really elim indicative. It reads like they've made a list in the elim doc and he's just sharing it here. Divergent votes Wonko to put him in the lead 3-2. Wahr votes Archer and later rescinds. Still 3-2. Hoid Slayer mentions suspicion of Archer but does not vote. (Keeping an eye on Hoid Slayer because they are playing uncharacteristically this game) Hoid Slayer does vote for Archer a while later to make it 3-3. Burnt -> Araris connection? Burnt mentions previously that reading Araris is difficult, yet gives village read despite minimal posting from Araris. Hmm, Araris unvotes Wonko and notes clearly that he thinks both are village. Puts Archer in the lead. Araris/Archer note e/e? Archer (3) - Wonko (2) [I think e!Araris just parks on Wonko here] Araris starts the train on Wahr. Mistfallen changes from Wonko to Wahr. Archer (3) - Wahr (2) [v!reading Mistfallen for this] Coco votes Wahr to make it 3-3. Coco -> Archer connection? Hoid Slayer rescinds vote on Archer. 3-2 to Wahr. Hoid Slayer has been quite weird about Archer the whole cycle, not sure how to read it. Coco has been offering many clarifications for what Archer said the whole cycle and has been subtly defensive of Archer. Coco -> Archer connection growing stronger. I vote for Wahr to make it 4-2. Doc votes Archer to make it 4-3. This is weird for the reason that they mentioned that they are hesitant to exe Archer but votes on them anyway to 'make EoC more interesting' I guess? Note sure how to read this. Divergent votes Wahr to make it 5-3. Doc shifts to Wahr seeing as no change happened. There's a late attempt to shift to Hoid's side-train by Archer and Doc but no dice. From this cycle, I think I am comfortable to read Araris and Mistfallen as village. There was a lot of movement when Archer was in the lead but not that much when Wahr was in the lead. I am not comfortable reading Archer as evil just yet but interesting to note that Coco and Hoid Slayer moved the votes essentially leading to protect Archer. Doc's EoC movements then, read as village. EoD1 reads -> Village - Araris, Mistfallen, Doc ??? - Archer, Hoid Slayer, Burnt, Coco TBC...

One again coming to apologise, I had a friend's birthday to prep for which took my attention away for the last couple of days. I should be free for the next 3 days so I should catch up but please, if someone can summarise and give me a few players to ISO that would be a better way for me to get into the game rather than the catch-up which I feel daunted about. @Stick., please take care and be safe!

Strong disagree here, I think Wahr was under equal suspicion in the last game and they behaved quite a ways differently here when compared to the last game. Ehhh, I had arrived on my reads independently and found that tagging Archer's post was indeed convenient for me to throw off ideas from, either agreeing, disagreeing or adding more to his points. I do believe that there is enough independent thoughts/reads in it and I was using Archer's post as a shooting-off points. I was not aware of the exact vote count when I voted for Wahr, though I knew he had at least a couple of votes on him. I joined late to the game due to IRL reasons and then I found it hard to get into it (still am). I really wanted to get some thoughts out so I could get a start but I could not be there longer as rollovers are at 03:00am for me. I just had to get that post off to get started. Divergent The vibes are off my friend... I will try to pin-point what exactly it is but can't really say for sure now.

i don't think i have been formulaic but i have not really gotten the feel of the game yet so I do agreed i feel a bit flat. playing this on a very low bandwidth atm. no clue yet. i wanna iso divergent and hael, which ill do later. leaving aside Wahr and looking purely at Ash, I do believe he was in his Dingo era (AG8 ref to the others: that is to say, I believe he might have been evil).

My best guess is that Ash volunteered. Perhaps RL reasons might precede and/or if they were finding it difficult to make time for the game, they could have just volunteered to die and then elims play it off as a low-info kill. ed1t: Might have missed this on my read-through. put forth your accusations

If e!Wahr, pool dilution can be done by either alignment's death imo. They will probably mix it up, not only through but we might have to be wary of bussing during the day as well in case we become certain of someone's elimness later. v!Wahr is more likely to lead to v!Ash than not. There is as possibility they would want to kill e!Ash anyway to avoid clearing a bunch of village but we have to see if that's the strategy they are going with. There is a thought here that the elims simply did not know there was an elim kill in N1. It is more likely than normal because D1 was no vote and usually there are no kills in games before the voting begins. It is also a valid strategy to wait and see what happens in D2 before starting the kills. They might think along the lines of "wait to see who gets eliminated to decide on the strat", so a deliberate no-kill to just wait and decide (and not because they specifically want to limit info) is also a valid strategy to keep in mind. edit: i just realised the last paragraph was essentially what Wonko said here, this is what i get not posting before reading the thread >> I think I'm considerably good with moderate village reads on Wonko and Mistfallen.