CadCom

So, I've had suspicions of Fifth this game. The following is an in-depth, progressive analysis of his posts, pertaining to how I view his different posts, or posts about him. I don't know Fifth extremely well, but He has been one of the people I have paid close attention to throughout. Being a new player, I try to look to the players that seem like they know what they're doing, and Fifth has been one of those players. This seems out of character for what I usually see from him. he doesn't usually vote for someone from previous games. That being said... This is obviously a joke vote, and it will be changed. The post gave a mild elim vibe, but not enough to worry about, because it's a joke post. This post made my previous mild elim vibe go back towards mild village. Bugsy, Araris, and Elenion had been discussing elim behavior, and Fifth didn't see it going anywhere, so he put an end to it. I still found it a bit suspicious that he would want to put an end to it though, as he usually tends to try to foster discussion. Fifth's style is usually one of wanting to get information to work with, so this seems like it would reflect his normal style. However, It didn't feel right to me. Fifth tends to vote on people more often because of mild suspicion, plus good information. This time, it seemed to be fully for the purposes of more information. I began to lean back more towards Elim here. So the first part of this post can be ignored, because it was later confirmed to be GM Error. I have also been noticing that fifth has been quieter than normal, and I will address that later. Cementing a vote just seems out of Fifth's style, because he usually tries to gather more information, before cementing a vote. Perfect! Fifth's response to everyone's criticism of him! I was in this position last game, and a little bit this game as well, Last game, I was village, so I know what it feels like to be put under suspicion when being innocent. I am going to analyze this post compared to what I would have said, having been put under similar suspicions. 1. Blame it on IRL stuff. I definitely did that. What can I say, it was the truth. Most of the time my posts were less frequent, or less thought out, it was because I was busy. 2. Hypocracy. He pointed out that he thought Len was being hypocritical. Then he proceeded to vote on Araris... What? 3. Oh, an explanation. Thanks again Fifth, for answering my questions when we need them. Len didn't have any votes, and it was too late to vote on him to get him lynched. So Instead make sure we get a lynch vote. 4. Personally, I prefer closer votes. I think we can learn more from closer votes, that could potentially become ties. We would learn more about vote manipulation, and someone would die anyways to do analysis. I would have thought that Fifth would have thought the same, but Who knows? The explanation seems pretty innocent to me. Ok, this seems fair. If you're busy, it makes it hard to post. Plus when you can get on, your first priority is most likely to catch up on the thread/PMs/Docs. So it takes more time to get to the rules. I think that the excuse is valid. However, it's equally valid if you are Elim, or if you are village, so it doesn't change my read of you. Great poem! I should give it an upvote. I haven't done so yet. If I remember, I'll do it after I finish my analysis. Also, thanks for the summary at the bottom. That's the part that I want to analyze more. Admitting guilt is a pretty vilage thing in my opinion, unless it's a confession post. Because you have so far only been under mild scrutiny, that's obviously not what you're doing. But You do know how a battle of wits works. Once a battle of wits has begun between any two people who know how a battle of wits works, it essentially becomes random, and no answer can be 100% satisfactory until the results are revealed. So you could be an elim, doing something that looks villagey, or a villager, doing something that looks like an elim doing a villagey thing, or just a villager doing a village thing...You get the idea. So Elenion doesn't suspect you. But maybe he doesn't know you as well as I do. Or maybe he knows you better. Who knows? Tone, in my opinion can easily be faked, if you attempt to put effort into your posts. I agree that There isn't much hard evidence for villageness in their posts at all. I agree, So far, I have a village read on Rand. If Fifth is an Elim, they is not trying the strategy of causing confusion. They are trying the "Be agreeable" strategy Fifth is also right, @Mr Doctor If you don't stop, you will be stuck like us. When you try to stop later, you will experience withdrawal symptoms and be drawn back in. It's a death trap. Right, Elim's can't have progression of thought on anyone, except for trying to determine who Miracle Max is, so they would try to obscure their progressions of thought regarding that. But Elims would know to fake it. (All of a sudden, it sounds really bad that I started my post out by saying that this is a progressive analysis) No, I don't think the real Max would necessarily counterclaim yet. If El is Max, why didnt they counter-claim last cycle? Ok, granted, El already explained why they didn't claim until now. But perhaps the Real Max is doing the same thing El did. Actually, I think the El is likely the real Max too. Now that he has made it very difficult for him to be killed, he decided to reveal himself now. I don't think the Man in Black should claim. He now no longer has his kill ability. If I recall from MR 29, I had the tiebreaker role, and no one asked that person to role claim so people could know who he was. Obviously, needing to know someone's reasoning can be important, but N1 kills are likely "I had a little bit of suspicion, plus I wanted to use my power" Especially if the player is newish. That's what I ended up doing in MR 29. Honestly, I haven't looked much at the long posts from this cycle yet, I've been spending too much time doing an analysis of Fifth. But that's next on my list, re-analyze everything this cycle so far. But I am fairly certain that Fifth is correct. Excelent Analysis Doctor! Thank you for your insight. So I did this analysis of Fifth because I was suspicious of him. I intend to to more analyses as the game continues, I just wanted to do his first. I still have that suspicion, so Fifth Scholar. Depending on your response, I may remove my vote, but for now it is stuck right there.

You, my friend, have just encountered one of the most fundamental tenets of SE: a game of I Know You Know. You will forever be lost in its depths if you don’t withdraw immediately. Jokes aside, I’m mostly seeing Rand as village but given his skill at obscuring his alignment I’m taking my read with a grain of salt. So, are you saying that SE is just a large Battle of Wits? It's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you. Are you the sort of man that would put the poison into his own goblet, or his enemies cast suspicion on yourself or your enemies? Now a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet cast suspicion on himself, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. to suspect you. But you must have known that I was not a great fool. You would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me. trust myself to be villager. *Have you made your decision then?* Not remotely, because the Iocane in this game comes from New Zealand, as everyone knows, And New Zealand is entirely peopled with criminals, and criminals are used to having people not trust them as you are not trusted by me Hobbits, and Hobbits are used to eating two breakfasts, which allow their minds to be more enlightened. And I have had two breakfasts today, so I can clearly not suspect you *Truly you have a dizzying intellect.* Wait till I get going! Where was I? *New Zealand.* Yes, New Zealand, and you must have suspected I would have known the powders origin, so I can clearly not trust myself. *You're stalling now* You'd like to think that, wouldn't you! You've beaten my giant lynched Buttercup, which means you're exceptionally strong wrong. So you could have put the poison in your own trusting on your strength to save you, intentionally made yourself looks suspicious so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you start a lynch on you. But you've also bested my spaniard, mostly killed Roadwalker, which means you must have studied, and in studying you must have learned that man is mortal It takes two turns to be totally dead. So you would have put the poison suspicion as far from yourself as possible. So I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me to vote for me *You're trying to trick me into giving away something. It won't work* It has worked. You've given everything away! I know where the poison is! who the Elim is! *Then make your choice* I will, and I choose-- What in the world can that be? *What? Where? I don't see anything* Oh, I could have sworn I saw something. No matter, *What's so funny* I'll tell you in a minute. First Let's drink, me from my glass, and you from yours. vote. Me for myself, and you for yourself. *You guessed wrong* You only think I guessed wrong. That what's so funny. I switched glasses our votes when your back was turned! Haha you fool!!! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia LG46. But only slightly less known is this: Never go in against a Cicilian Fifth Scholar, when Death is on the line!! Hahahaha ahahahah hah----- (I apologize for going against the daily fashion. But this is still worth a laugh, I imagine.) (Analysis to come soon, I must first request my bane and boon)

Fair enough. That seems like a good plan. I personally interpret social media as stuff blocked on my work computer/on my work wifi. And miraculously, the Shard isn't blocked. So by default, it must not be Social Media. ____ I personally think Fifth has been playing a bit quieter than normal, but it seems, by everyone's own admission, we all seem to be busy with summer stuff. So, maybe it's just that. @Fifth Scholar What say ye?

On an unrelated note, not directly related to me, I'm pretty sure that many people on the 17th Shard are LDS(mormon), because Brandon Sanderson is mormon. With that being said, The prophet of the Mormon Church has challenged the youth(ages 12-17 I think) to do a week long detox, or fast from social media. I am not personally affected by this, and abstaining from Social media should be a personal decision that shouldn't necessarily affect the rest of game play, but I don't want this to negatively affect the game, with a bunch of people dying due to inactivity for the next week. So can I request that perhaps an extension or exception be considered to the inactivity filter for anyone who would have died on the second cycle of this week? Like I said, I am not personally affected, so I don't care if that happens or not. What does everyone else think about my suggestion? @Steeldancer, What is your opinion? Once again, I don't want to bring religion into this, but If it turns out that enough people are inactive, I think it might be worth it to keep the game fun.

I thought that we could only make one Permanent PM total, unless we had a parrot, which would allow us to make an extra PM every night. So all of us can make a Permanent PM every night? Exciting! So, yeah, My vote was just a D1 vote, Which I later retracted, for similar reasons to my original vote. I honestly thought at first that Straw seemed suspicious. It seemed reasonable to me to think that an elim who was not the count would ask a question about the count in the main thread. However, as Straw pointed out, as well as someone else, later in thread, it is less likely for an Elim to make a mistake in thread, because they are going to be more careful so that they don't get put under scrutiny. After straw pointed that out to me, I realized that, so I retracted my vote. Then I was not able to get back on to place another vote before rollover, because it's difficult for me to get on on weekends. Currently, I'm attempting to do a quick analysis of D1, and I still need to send out my PM. But I'll post more once my analysis is complete.

Vote Tally Walin (1): Mark IV Kidpen (1): Devotary of Spontaneity Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Val Straw (1) CadCom @StrawThat seems reasonable. straw I'm on mobile, so I'll do more analysis when I get on a computer. Also, it's D1, so my analysis would be inaccurate any way

RP: Weww stowms.. I've saiwed way out hewe to wocate the 6 fingewed count, and wob his fowtune. But my cousin Inigo the spaniawdhad to show up too! Aww my hawd wowk is twacking him down is gonna go to waste, aww because the same man decided to kiww my crazy unco. How wiww I steaw his fowtune if my cousin kiwws him fiwst? Oh I know, if onwy I can find my cousin, we can wowk togever to steaw the fowtune and like him... maybe that wiww wowk. I shaww put up some signs at the powt and at the casso (castle) to twy to contact him. I bettew get some cwayons! Everybody wikes signs made of cwayons! --------------------- Analysis: So, the only analysis I have so far is on straw. I don't think he's the six fingered man, the Spaniard or miracle max, because then he would have most likely asked that in his PM with the GM. But he is likely associated with one of the three, so he's either elim, or village. Great analysis, huh? That said, I am going to vote for Straw I will edit in a vote tally(based on previous tally) or make a new post if someone else has posted before I finish

I've been told by multiple sources that I shouldn't worry about Arinian so I will change my vote. I am also suspecting drought, xino and have Bard and Bort and Arraenae on my neutral list. My vote tonight is mainly because I don't want to lose one of my free passes, but I will change it. So I'll randomly vote for Bard

So, unfortunately, I haven't done as much analysis as I would Like. But I saw that Elan voted for Arinian C1. The thing is that it was a late vote, only about an hour before rollover. I suspect that it was a distancing vote, and Elan wasn't suspecting to get lynched. But then they did. So because of that, plus Arinian's continuous behavior of voting for himself makes me believe he is elim. I really want to stay on to see if Arinian has time to react to this before Rollover, and possibly change my vote. But for now, Arinian, I don't want to get caught without a vote listed in case I cannot get on later tonight.

At first I had the same thoughts about Bort's interactions with Wonko and Elan. However, after a while, I decided it was unlikely that three people would talk so much in the main thread so early, if they all knew each other were elims. I decided it was more likely that the two were acting together, and Bort just so happened to be on at or near the same time. Oops, yes, those were the people. I guess I should proofread more often. So I started out by classifying them as slight elim, but as I finished my post, I decided that they felt more neutral, but worthy of watching. Rae had an elim read, before I switched it to Neutral after a more complete analysis of her posts. As far as I noticed, no one else has put up an analysis of Xino, but xino was on my list of people to analyze, so thank you. I can add this to my analysis when I get around to it. I now have a village read on Devotary. I don't think an elim would start a completely new analysis on someone new. It just seems like a move, that if it goes south, could cause too much scrutiny of the person who originally did the Analysis. So that's why I have a village read on Devotary.

To be honest, all I have is reads as well. The two elim reads I have right now seem to be on everyone else's list, and have been read as anywhere from strong village to slight Elim. The first is Bort: He had a lot of communication in-thread with Elandera and Wonko in C1 regarding tinkers. That seems like it could have been a tactic to just seem like they are all trying to have fun on D1, to go under the scrutiny radar. But I find it unlikely that 3 elims together would actually try communicating in thread, with each other. So, while I will be watching Bort, he is currently Neutral for me. The other, of course is Rae. I can't remember the process I went through with her, but it ended up as putting her as neutral as well. Unfortunately I wasn't writing anything down at the time, so the notes are just mental notes. I still want to do Analysis on Drought, and Snip especially. I know many people see Alvron as hard village, but I want to do a personal analysis of him. And have a gut feeling to do analysis on Devotary and Xino. Of course I'm curious and suspicious about what happened to Orlok. But I will forget about that for now, until we are able to get more information about it. This game, I will be less active than other games. I will still be able to get on, but unfortunately, most of my analysis will have to be based off of others' analysis, and less of my own.

Thanks for the congrats! It definitely was pretty fun being in a house, where I was the most veteran player, and this only being my second SE game. The one thing that really got us was that D4 lynch. The one between Itiah, and Araris. Elephant voted for Itiah, because in the rules, it said that Thugs votes were cancelled. Then the next phase, we learned that his vote was not cancelled. At first it was just frustrating, but the results wouldn't have changed. When day 7 came around, and the revelation that the count on that lynch was incorrect, it wouldn't have changed Itiah's death, but it would have made it so Araris also died that day. So then it became a bit more frustrating. But alas. It was a fun game. We kindof got the short end of the stick there, but all is forgiven. It was a great allegory for life.

To be completely honest on the reason I voted for steeldancer was because he had the most votes other than Snip when I voted. Snip was on my team for LG 45, and died really early. It was also snips first game, so I didn't want him dying so early again on his second game. I felt bad for him. So I voted for the person with the next closest amount of votes. I hadn't done a whole lot of analysis. I'm trying to do more this cycle, but haven't been able to do a whole lot yet, so my vote is staying on aonar for now, until I can do more analysis.

Hey guys! Memorial day weekend has made my posts a bit less frequent than I would like. I hope to start much better analysis starting tomorrow. But, unfortunately, from the little analysis I've done, everyone seems slightly village, except for like one quirk for most of the people I've analyzed. I don't really want to be part of any lynch train, but I don't want to lose my lifelines due to inactivity, so I will place a tentative placeholder vote on Aonar for trying to lynch the GM

Hey guys, not much time for analysis right now, sorry, but I personally don't want to vote snip, because it's only his second game, and his first he dies pretty early. I promise I'll do more analysis next cycle. So I'm going to go steeldancer

Here is an exerpt from the rules So yes, because it's an intrinsic ability. I also noticed this in the rules, which I didn't notice originally. I imagine that we do have to include the GM's though. I didn't notice that part of the rules until today, so you can expect me to be PMing some of you within the next couple of days. I just don't know who yet.

If the write up is indicitave of anything more than RP, then it seems like Elandera was chosen by the Ciridae, which would make sense, because it was a tie vote. But that could also mean that we have 6 more Elims to worry about. That seems like an unusually large number, but I suppose there are quite a lot of roles in the game, so certain abilities may balance that out? Or maybe it's some sort of reference to the book? I haven't read the book, so I wouldnt know. Edit: So, Drought didn't vote or post, but someone did manipulate his vote, because he is listed as voting on Elandera, bringing Elandera back up to 3. Just to let you all know, on any given day, the chances of me being on After 3 pm Mountain time is small. I will at least try to check on rollover days so as to provide final insight, but I cannot promise that that will happen.

Gaaah!!! I keep making that mistake! I made it with Wilson, Now with Arraenae, and with one or two others. With some of them I even made the mistake more than one time.

Ok, here's my updated vote tally. Let me know if I missed anything. In all my time here(this is just my third game) this is the most lynch targets D1 that I've ever seen. So this is fun. @Steeldancer My vote was also meant to be a poke or joke vote. I don't really care that he missed my vote in his count. But keep your vote on me, It's fine. Almost all D1 votes have some... interesting... logic to them. And I see the logic in your vote. On an unrelated note, I know I'm still new, and nicknames can take a while to get settled in, but I have 3 different names that are used to refer to me other than my real name, Cadmium Compounder. I have Cadmium, CadCom, and just CC. I would be happy if one could be decided on at some point. I don't really have a preference which.

I actually did have a vote cast. Yesterday I said this: But to respond to your request, I will remove my vote from Wonko, and change it to Arraenae. For the completely valid reason of accidentally skipping over my post. Also, I agree with Steeldancer, when he said this. It seems very Elim-ey to whisper names in a forest like this. Edit: I am going to update the vote count, and edit it into this post if no one has responded. If someone responds, I will make it a new post.

Fifth Scholar actually usually pushes for discussion, from what I've seen of them. I would argue that Fifth is just being Fifth. I don't really like D1 lynches, but, they've got to happen. I suppose. So far, it looks like there's a 3 way tie between Wonko, Young Bard, and Aonar, So I will randomly break the tie. The Google RNG chose the number I assigned to Wonko.

@SteeldancerI don't think that it was rude either. I think Orlok just saw the potential for your post, along with the posts preceding it to act as a gateway into the kind of behavior he described. Your post itsself was harmless, in my opinion.

I think I'll have time to play. I would like to sign up as Indigo Montoya, a colorful Spanish American man whose stepfather lost his life fortune to a six fingered slight of hand artist in a game of poker. I seek to avenge my stepfather in a poker game of champions against the six fingered man. I hope he isn't killed by my Spanish cousin, Inigo

@Orlok Tsubodai Thank you for that comment. We really were enjoying the light-hearted humor, but I definitely don't want to offend anyone. I think that the humor we had was all good intentioned, but like you said, if it is left unchecked, it could turn into passive aggressive humor. I've been in experiences in my life where well-intentioned humor turned sour, while the target of the 'humor' was there, and it isn't fun. While poking and prodding at people is often fun, it's important to remember that the other person, has feelings, or in our online case, that the other user has a face, which masks their feelings.

I'm pretty sure my role will allow me two votes, so Bort For voting for me Drake For being the silent type