Elandera
-
Posts
2175 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
News
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Everything posted by Elandera
-
Mid-Range Game 43: Death Comes As The End
Elandera replied to Kasimir's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I will also take a spec doc, please! -
Continuing my (hopefully) short break, I'll take a spec doc, please.
-
They can only switch bodies once per game, which happened when Araris died.
-
I'm getting confused. How would Ventyl not know someone was trying to verify his roleblock target without asking him his roleblock target? If anyone asked him his target, he'd be able to notify a teammate ahead of time. Did you ask him before the turnover or after? Either way, he'd have to give you the truthful target (which would be a villager, because why would he roleblock a teammate) or lie and get a teammate on board to help him out. Here are the possible scenarios for an Elim!Emi regarding Ventyl's roleblock claim: Ventyl did not let her know of his plan to claim a roleblock on her This would mean he'd have to waste an action blocking a teammate and hope she took an action Hope that Emi would recognize the claim was coming from a teammate and corroborate it regardless. This is a dangerous move because it could lead to the discovery of a lie if someone happened to scan either her or Ventyl Ventyl told the elim doc of the plan Emi was aware, but still didn't follow the plan, basically setting Ventyl up for downfall. Emi didn't answer the thread until the end of the cycle, giving her plenty of time to catch up in a doc, yet still didn't cooperate. @Ashbringer, when did she answer you? Emi wasn't aware, which means she's not very active in the doc and Ventyl didn't do very much to make sure she was aware of the plan (such as send her a PM when she didn't answer in the doc) If Ventyl was lying about his action, he'd have everything to lose by not letting his teammate know of his plan to false-claim and use them as the suggested target.
-
Let me see if I can clear up my stream-of-consciousness explanation here, and why I ended up from being suspicious to not of Emi. Elim!Emi would have been in on the plan with Ventyl at the beginning. There would have been no need for Ventyl to actually submit an action against her, and she would be free to do an action or not. When questioned the turn after the block was supposed to happen, she would have lied and said she was blocked, essentially clearing Ventyl at that time. Elim!Emi would have just lied to go along with her teammate, and would have no motivation whatsoever to say she didn't submit an action or wasn't blocked.
-
Thanks for doing that. I had all of Ventyl's posts open for review and Chrome crashed. I got a little discouraged and decided to binge a series on Hulu instead. I'm definitely willing to put a lot more trust in Karnage, though I want to look at the exact numbers at the time of voting. It's unlikely Ventyl would cast a preservation vote on a teammate also likely to die unless they both agreed to the distancing tactic. Mage was probably more accurate here, meaning 4 remaining elims, especially since Ventyl turned out to be a Leecher. I keep forgetting about the Kandra.
-
Yeah, as I got to the end of my thought process, I realized you'd have no motivation to lie and say you didn't take an action. I should have made that more clear. I don't think you're suspicious for that anymore.
-
After a brief skim of Ventyl's posts (I weeded out pure RP and irrelevant posts made mostly during D1 when most posts was a thing), I have a few more things to say. Emi and Walin may be worth a coinshot kill/lynch. Ninja'd by Emi: Sorry Emi, I realize you just said you'd be more active. It's odd that even last turn when Walin has been in and out of activity, Ventyl insisted he'd be used as a target for Leeching. If Walin's posting rate is roughly (wild guess here) once per cycle, why would he assume there would be an action to stop? Also, less certain, but still possible, is Emi's involvement in Ventyl's first plan to prove his role. @Emi, were you aware ahead of time he planned to roleblock you? Maybe just a roleblock on Emi (if we have any remaining), instead of a kill. As I think about it, I'm less certain here. It would have been easier for her to lie and agree she'd been roleblocked if she'd been a teammate.
-
Oh good, another place to start with analysis! Ventyl posted a ton, so I don't know how far or in depth I'll be able to get. I'll work on that tonight/tomorrow. First, though, I want to do a brief read list based on memory, since I don't think I've done one yet. Karnage - Elim lean; I still haven't gotten over my suspicion here, but I want to look more at the posts and interactions with Ventyl. Pyro - Neutral; I really have no idea. I want to read them as village, though. Lahlit - Neutral; Not much stands out in my mind regarding them. The read is mostly for staying under the radar. TJ Shade - Neutral, elim lean; I want to look closer at their interactions with Ventyl as well. Last turn gave me the impression of trying to possibly save them when another lynch seemed possible. (I'll need to actually look at how that voting went before I do much more with this suspicion.) Emi - Mostly inactive Kidpen - Mostly inactive Mist - Neutral; same as my read on Lahlit. Kynedath - Inactive Walin - Mostly inactive Ashbringer - Village; Their continued suspicion and pursuit of a Ventyl lynch pretty much seals the deal here. If someone has protection, this might be a good place to put your action. A confirmed villager is always nice to have alive. TGK - Inactive Magestar - Neutral, elim lean; I want to look into their interactions with Ventyl for much the same reason as TJ. Some of their posts seemed pretty insistent on saving Ventyl if possible.
-
Why would you need a trap to prove your role that does the same thing?
-
True, but we know Ventyl bought a trap after the Drake lynch. I still don't know why he'd waste the money on one when his ability essentially does the same thing.
-
It's a perfectly reasonable move for someone trying too build up cash to buy items that can mimic the role they'd claimed. A last-minute vote change to the lead lynch means they are guaranteed to get some of the boxings, and Drake had been active and talkative enough to have a fair bit of change.
-
@MysticLotus, here's the sign-up for the next game. I'll take a spec doc, unless you want people to pinch-hit. Then I'll sign up as a pinch-hitter.
-
Hmm. The only suspicion I remember seeing of you before my vote was really Pyro's suspicion you were a Kandra. I realize now Ash was also minorly suspicious (I've barely been skimming the thread the last few days), but the following vote from Karnage seems opportunistic. While I realize some of my initial logic of being suspicious of them because of Xino's posts is flawed, their actions afterward are still odd. I'd be willing for a vote there instead. I'll do some studying tonight to see what I can come up with, but I'm better with analytics than mechanics. This also reminds me I had wanted to look closer at Xino's role analysis posts to see if he may have left clues as to possible elim team comp. It is possible, but that does give the village a fair amount of roleblocks, especially if you consider the possibility of a coinshot and the items. That's a ton of roleblocking potential. I wouldn't be opposed to a Ventyl lynch. Yes, I know I'm contradicting my earlier statements of not lynching for the role, but I am curious why a village Misting would buy steel traps that do essentially the same function as their ability. It would seem more prudent to save money and try to buy something else that you can't do with your ability. Xino's post that included analysis about a Leecher: It was one of the few he actually asked questions about rather than just stating opinion. He called it a village power role, which seems like odd phrasing. It would also be an elim power role with all of the other kills and roleblocks floating around. Based on this, it's quite possible he knew there was a Leecher on his team. Wait, you're right. If Reading was also a Leecher, Ventyl being one would make three Village Leechers, which is waaaaayyyy too many, even in a game this size. Magestar Ventyl
-
You're probably right. I forgot to take into account the kill mechanics available to the villagers that would likely put the elim team on the higher end of the percentage balance. Me too, Ash, me too. It was worse when Elkanah, Elbereth, and I all played in a game together. Too many Els. I'm thinking of a name change, but I'm not sure I want to abandon the clan of Els. On to relevant things. We're about 24 hours into the turn and no one has cast a single vote. Do not get discouraged, village! We still have a chance to win. Unfortunately, I won't have time for an in-depth analysis until later (I have to DM a D&D campaign for which I am woefully under-prepared). Until then, Magestar. I have had a village read on you, but for the life of me, I don't know why. That makes me super suspicious. Don't worry too much. I won't leave my vote here unless I can find a reason.
-
The MR is a very unique case because of the mechanics. The standard elim ratio for SE is 20-25% based on the roles and win-cons. We can probably expect 4-5 elims in this game of 23 players. My guess is probably four elims + Kandra, especially since the Kandra essentially had an extra life. We have 14 players remaining and likely three elims remaining (four if we want to be cautious), plus the Kandra. That means we probably have at least 9 villagers left. Not great, but not terrible. The biggest problem is the inactivity. Based on kills, the elims are active, and we probably have an active coinshot.
-
It tells us that Ventyl prompting Lahlit to remove their vote from Experience D2 was not an elim trying to protect an elim. With that, all of the arguments brought against Ventyl are null (Emi didn't take an action and thus couldn't be roleblocked was the other one). It also means the swing to Drake D2 was not an elim machination, unless there was another candidate up for possible lynch at the time. I disagree that it clears Karnage, but will agree it pretty well clears Ventyl for now, regarding the reasons for suspicion. It wasn't until the last few minutes that another vote was placed on Karnage, bringing him up to three votes. If he had an elim team, they could have removed vote manipulation to make it not suspicious when he was at two votes.
-
Vote Count: Karnage (3) - Kidpen, Ventyl, TJ ShadeLahlit (1) - TJ ShadeVentyl (3) - Experience, Karnage, LahiltExperience (4) - Magestar, Ashbringer, Elandera, Mist Ashbringer (1) - Matrim
-
I edited it into the vote count I'd already posted.
-
That's been fixed.
-
That's reasoning I can get behind. Lets make this interesting. Karnage Experience. Edit: Karnage (2) - Kidpen, VentylLahlit (1) - TJ ShadeVentyl (3) - Experience, Karnage, LahiltExperience (3) - Magestar, Ashbringer, Elandera Ashbringer (1) - Matrim
-
I know this may seem odd coming from me, but what's the reason for wanting to lynch Experience? I know I was suspicious of them for gut read reasons, but I haven't seen any more evidence for that vote than a Karnage vote. Ash's reasons seem to be the same as my reasons for my Karnage vote, but for D2 instead of D1 shenanigans. Besides, I wanted to actually substantiate my suspicions before voting on Experience, considering I was in a bit of a tunnel there.
-
I went back to see if I'd missed something, and found Drake's post where he was hesitant to lynch Karnage because of another game. To counter your point of Xino's reasoning, though, he quoted a previous post of his when Pyro prompted him. So his reasoning was already in the thread, but not as clear until after the prompting. I'm still suspicious of Karnage, but I would be willing to lynch Ash if we can get more support. Considering the current layout of votes, I'm leaving my vote on Karnage for now. I really don't agree with the Ventyl lynch, and switching my vote now would put them in the lead. (Yes, I'm aware there's time, but I'm being overly cautious at the moment.)
-
Yes, but are the elim and Kandra win-cons compatible if the Kandra is an elim, and is the last one standing?
-
Vote Count: Karnage (3) - Elandera, Experience, Pyro, Kidpen Lahlit (1) - TJ Shade Kynedath (1) - Magestar Ventyl (3) - Experience, Ashbringer, Karnage I'm not really sure I see where you draw the line from my accusations of Karnage to me being the Kandra. A Kandra (outside of an elim!Kandra) would still be just as in the dark as the village about the elim team composition. It's not like Kandra!me could suddenly start systematically taking out the elim team to tip things into my favor. Speaking of which, @StrikerEZ, is it possible for the elims and Kandra to win together if the Kandra is an elim and is the last one remaining? See this post of mine. It has to do with Xino's vote, who has now flipped elim. As for everything regarding Ventyl, lying about a role is NAI traditionally. Especially on D1. While it's not normal for a lot of people to claim D1, it's totally normal for others (see Lumgol's history). It's all based on style. Some people are chill with revealing a lot of information, regardless of their alignment. Also, please consider the fact this is a role madness game. There really isn't a role, the exception being the Kandra, whose alignment is tied to the role. Lynching someone for their role and roleclaim alone is a very slippery slope. I say this having been lynched/killed several times just because I got a thug role, and everyone thought the elims were likely to have a thug. If there is evidence against Ventyl outside the roleclaim issue, please, bring it forward.
