Elandera
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Everything posted by Elandera
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I'm not sure how you can read me as the Kandra, since this is the first time I've posted since the old Kandra died. It's not like there was a shift in my playstyle, so my post content has really nothing to do with it. Wait, I just reread the beginning of the post and realized you're making the Kandra connection based on who Araris was most likely to choose. Yeah, I'd be somewhat suspicious of me as well. I think Araris would be likely to choose someone who has been involved and mostly NAI with village leans. As for why you suspect me as elim, that makes sense. Few of my posts have done much yet, since my week at work was pretty crazy. That's about to be fixed! I'll break down Xino, as elims are probably the larger threat and easier to find. I'll start with Xino's posts that involved other players (that still live). D1 D2 That makes me curious about the votes on Karnage. Xino's seemed to be one of the first, made in the last few hours of the turn. Pyro voted on Karnage to save Coda after prompting from Drake. Five minutes later, Xino voted on Karnage, and Pyro was immediately suspicious? That seems weird, since Pyro just suggested lynching them to save Coda. They were suspicious enough to call them out twice. Drake voted next, followed by Coda. Mage suggests it's a weird lynch, and offers up Ash (who'd just said they were going to tie it before Coda voted). Ash then votes on Karnage, with the statement they'd move to Hats if Karnage responds or more people vote on Hats. Pyro then moves immediately to Hats, followed by Ash, Drake, Mist, Karnage (which was too late). Time to don the paranoid conspiracy theory hat! Xino (a known elim) did not see plots by elim!Pyro to "swing" a vote onto elim!Karnage in an effort to gain trust by appearing to save Coda. When both voted on Karnage right next to each other, it put elim!Karnage within solid reach of being lynched considering who Pyro was working with publicly. That explains Pyro's apparent frantic effort to get Xino to post again, despite appearing to be okay with Karnage's lynch. Since Xino had reason, though, he couldn't retract without suspicion, so elim!Pyro worked to get it back away from Karnage. He likely had assistance from at least one other elim, most likely Mist because of this post and his stated reason for trusting Karnage. With that, my current suspect list for elim team would be Karnage, Pyro, and Mist. This all hinges on Karnage actually being elim, and Xino's vote that turn being an attempted distancing vote gone wrong.
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Oof. Broken down, that makes me see I'm seriously tunneling. I promise I won't vote on you next turn unless I can substantiate it. And I'll expand my suspect pool. Thanks for calling me out!
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Rusts. Rollover is at a really bad time for me on work days. The last time I was able to look at the thread, it was still on page 6. I'm still suspicious of Experience and don't like the surge to swing the votes again. But... but... it's so much fun! Actually, this is a good point. If anyone's suspicions are because Pyro thinks they're village, why not lynch Pyro instead? Granted, I don't know the actual reasoning for lynching Drake, since I was unable to look at the thread when most of the votes happened. Welcome fellow pinch-hitter! I don't recommend trying to wade through D1. It's a nightmare of 20+ pages of nonsense. N1 is a fine place to start, or maybe the end of D1. If you have time, though, why not? Good news, after tonight I'm going into my weekend, so I will have a bit more time to actually go through and find an explanation for my gut read on Experience. Just in time for another vote! (Yay tunnels!)
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I think that's a great idea. We could also unpin the championships thread except for when it's needed, and create a new "Current Game Notifications" thread (or a more clever title than that nonsense). -
Hello and welcome! A new game is posted usually a few days after one ends. Our pattern is to have a Long Game running consistently, and switch back and forth between a Mid-Range and a Quick Fix game so there are almost always two games running. I think the MR should be wrapping up soon, though I haven't been following it a lot. We can tag you when the new sign-ups are posted. Games usually start about a week after sign-ups.
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To my knowledge, Araris is the only one who was part of both votes. I was adamantly against the Coda lynch. Also, I'm adamantly against a Contribution Crusader lynch. If the elims are going to pick off the inactives, we need information from somewhere. We won't get that by lynching people who've posted so little. If nothing else from the Experience lynch, we will learn a lot. If he's elim, we have a whole herd of people who've defended him. If he's village, we have a few who seem to want him lynched for something. We have interactions to bolster future reads.
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It all seems like an unexperienced elim move. Experience is just new enough (and I don't believe he's been an elim yet), that it's probable that it was a panic response from elim!Experience. I do see where you're coming from, but I don't know if a villager would immediately assume that the other person in the suggested scenario would have to be elim.
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Seems very non-elim behaviour here. If he was elim, he'd know Coda would flip village and would cast massive suspicion on him when it happens. An elim would not paint a target on their back by making a statement like this. Now, kandra!Experience though, that's a different matter. But I guess it's too early to go that route, yeah? @Elandera and @Araris Valerian, you seem to be doubting them. What do you make of this post? I think that post has some very flawed logic, personally. If Araris is village, he has just as much knowledge about who is on the same team as the rest of the village. What he likely meant by saying Coda and Experience weren't on the same team is that they likely weren't both elims, but they could be both villagers. Villagers are inherently more suspicious of everyone and often confront other villagers for little reason other than vague suspicions. It's easy for two villagers to seem adversarial. The fact Experience posted that Coda must be elim because Araris thinks they're on different teams makes me more suspicious, actually, of Experience. It's like he couldn't see the possibility that they could both be misguided villagers, and thus tried to pin the suspicion and blame on Coda. Also, regarding suspicion of Araris, his voting pattern is NAI. He's honest when he says his votes are stab votes. I've seen him do it as both a villager and an elim. If that's the reason for the suspicion, I don't think it's a good lynch. He gets lynched for that reason alone entirely too much. EDIT: Also, I have more time than expected tonight at work, but I also am battling a headache, so that throws out the possibility for any worthwhile analysis. I will try to answer direct questions, though. And if the headache ebbs, I'll try to add more.
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Tonight has been busier than I'd hoped and tomorrow is going to be a nightmare of a day for me. Analysis isn't going to be plausible for me until at least Monday afternoon, a few hours before rollover. Maybe early Monday morning depending on work again. I'm comfortable leaving my vote on Experience. It's not just because you started doing game-related stuff, it was partly the timing of it and just a weird vibe from the rest of your posts. It'll be what I focus on when I have the chance. Off the top of my head, I'd like to see more content from @ILuvHats, @Kynedath, @Elkanah, and @Walin. I don't recall seeing many, if any, posts from any of these people, though there are several others that also fit that profile.
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I need to look at the specifics, but if Pyro was leading the charge toward Karnage, they're not likely both elims. Trying to vote on a teammate that late in the turn is a recipe for disaster. It could easily get out of control, especially when there were several people saying they didn't want to lynch Coda. It more gave me the impression that the Karnage lynch wasn't getting enough momentum to actually save Coda, so it switched to someone else that might. It's possible Karnage is elim, and that's part of why it didn't get momentum (maybe some of the others that followed the Hats train but not the Karnage train could have been trying to save him), but I doubt it's Karnage and Pyro. My understanding of the theory is that it's most people are Twinborn. The exemptions may be those roles that seem super powerful, such as Archivist (?). It is a role madness game, so I suspect a lot of people have a few options. I'm not sure why this is a hidden theory, as it seems pretty obvious to me, but oh well. It's the same reason I voted on you last turn. Most of it is a gut read, but a shift in your style near the end is what really gave me that gut read. I'll try to do some real analysis later, when I'm not quite so interrupted at work.
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Most likely the kill was targeting Devotary because she had very little thread presence. It means there's little to no information that can be gained from her death, unless more was revealed in PMs. Also, regarding the lynch last turn (I'm finally on a laptop again, so I have a bit more freedom for searching and exploring), I don't think there was any rioting. From what I've seen, no votes were added to any list, only removed. I also want to look at the votes placed on Hats and who the voters had voted on before, as I still believe if one of those votes was soothed because of the previous target. The Hats lynch happened late enough that there were plenty of people not around to make any action changes. If the Shouty Shout thing was game-relevant, please let me know. I'm basically skimming over RP because I don't have a lot of time to invest in reading through it all. If elim!Pyro tried to lynch Karnage, why would that make them both elim? I'm not entirely sure I follow the logic here. @Araris Valerian, you mentioned possibly being willing to vote on Experience, Kynedath, Magestar, Drake, or Mist. Of those, which is your top candidate? I'm still suspicious of Experience, so I'll put my vote there for the moment. That's it for now. I need to read through D1 still, and then hopefully I'll start listing out some reads with reasoning.
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As has been pointed out, there are several vote manipulations. I doubt there was anything there intentionally to keep Hats alive, as they haven't been around much. It could be one of the last-minute vote changes had been on someone else who was the intended target of soothing. I'm on mobile again (forgot my laptop charger), so I won't really be breaking the whole thing down. Hats Votes: One of Ash, Drake, Pyro or Mist were soothed, a certain kind of Feruchemist, or a rioter that targeted someone else. I suspect the first, and probably soothed for the reasons I put in my first paragraph. Araris Votes: One of Karnage or Matrim was also soothed, a rioter, etc. This one I find more interesting, as Araris wasn't really a top candidate for the lynch except in the middle of the turn. Mist Vote: Shard's vote was also manipulated. This is most likely the result of self-soothing through Feruchemy, or someone who was over protective of Mist and not around to see votes move away.
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It partly depends on the content of the poke vote. It's much easier when there's a question or some kind of prompt to do something. Especially on D1, but relevant for future posts, a single vote isn't much cause for concern. The best way to address a poke vote is to acknowledge its existence, then try to contribute something to the thread. If it was truly a poke vote, most will be removed after that. If it's someone like Araris, well, there's not much that can be done to get that vote removed. He's pretty serious about his stab votes. Overall, my advice to all new players, whether village or elim, is to not get too worked up over one or two votes. If they're placed early in the cycle, there's plenty of time to contribute more and find other suspicions. Becoming overly defensive really early or not acknowledging the vote at all comes off as suspicious more often than not. Speaking of votes, I should probably place one. I'm not overly suspicious of any of the leading candidates, and I definitely don't think we should lynch Coda or Ash. I am, however, willing to lynch Experience. I haven't seen a ton of game-related content from them (granted, I've barely been able to skim the beginning and end of this thread, considering it's length), but they seemed rather anxious to start once I stated elims would be content without game-related content.
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Yeah, I just skimmed through the rules again and realized my mistake. I read the thing for steel at the top of the list and assumed that would apply to all Feruchemists. EDIT: And @Experience, about Coda's vote, that seems very in line with their playstyle, even as village. I don't think it's worth a lynch there yet.
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The logic is that I'm not a new player that's been added to the list, but instead taking over for Lord Sil. All votes and actions that target him now target me. Including all the PMs he was in. I think it was @Magestar who mentioned it, but the nighttime game-relevant discussion probably stemmed from me, which will continue. I work nights in the US, so that's when I'm awake to do things. Sorry this post isn't super game-related. I just woke up and tried to sift through three more pages of mostly irrelevant data. I'm not getting a solid read on anyone, though I trust those actually pushing for AI content more. Elims would be perfectly content with how things are. EDIT: Ninja'd a lot. @The Young Pyromancer, the most reliable manipulation is a Feruchemist who wants to store metals. That cancels their vote.
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I'm pretty sure Striker built this himself, but he seems like a fairly trollish GM. So yes, expect secrets and shenanigans. Also, I won't be as helpful this cycle as I'd hoped. My laptop died and I can't access the site on my work computer. Reading through 13 pages of posts is just too much for mobile. From what I have seen though, it's a lot of relatively benign posts as people try to get a lot of content down. I'm not a fan and won't be competing, but I'm not going to stop anyone who tries. If it's fun for you, go for it.
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There are plenty of experienced players in the game, so I disagree with your logic here. Araris and Mage could easily both be villagers if you take into account players like Devotary, Xino, Drake, Walin, Elkanah, and many others I haven't listed. Yes, there are a lot of new players, but there's always a danger in assuming the elim team was chosen based on experience.
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Since I am taking over fully for Silber, it would be on me.
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Hello everyone! Eleven pages is a lot of content to read through, so I'm not sure how helpful I'll be right away. I will hopefully have time tonight to read through things (barring craziness at work) and make some relevant posts for boxings. Quick note after breezing through the rules (and I'm sure someone's already said this), but if we are certain of someone being an elim, there needs to be a strong vote majority and people should not store any feruchemical abilities. We also can't inherently trust any votes on someone who flips elim, even early ones, because of how easy it is to subtly cancel your own vote.
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I'll take a spec doc link, please!
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Yeah, my suggestion was just to keep them from being able to kill freely every turn.
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Got it, then it should be fine. I'd also suggest a village kill role. The lynch rules are interesting and I'd like to see them in play, but you would need to give a little more ability to the village to act in the late game. It wouldn't be out of place to have up to two village kill roles (depending on player count) that have a limited number of kills. That plus the contract to kill would be enough to balance the restricting lynch.
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I won't argue against the discount. Just chalk it up to Athdara's charm. At least it wasn't needed in the end, and having the extra talents (because affording a 60 talent bodyguard would have been basically impossible for me) wouldn't have made a big difference in my game play. Though the contract I threw up may have been for several more talents.
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Little Wilson, Elbereth, this was an amazing game! Hats off to both of you for organizing and running a game with such complicated rules. I completely take blame for misunderstanding the rules and totally messing up my chances at elevation. Also, I didn't realize how close I was to possibly making master until after someone had already snagged the spot. Thanks for being patient through my questioning and blundering. It really was a great game. Sorry about that... My reads were really off this game until it was too late. Also, sorry to Burnt. I'm glad none of my efforts to get you suspended/killed worked. Great game, elims. You all basically had me thoroughly fooled.
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Being expelled was unfortunate, but I'll still do what I can to help out and offer my two cents. On the upside, I'll have a little bit more money to spend in Imre. I have a feeling Fura's insanity was from Naming rather than a Skindancer attack, as they didn't have an agreement with a physicker as far as I know. Rover would have been killed, so that was likely an action insanity as well. Instead, I really do think the attack was roleblocked. The only Master I trust right now is Araris, and one of the others will have vote manipulation abilities.
