MonsterMetroid

oh yeah thanks for mentioning this scene I loved that one. Before I was kind of meh on renarin as a character but after this book and that scen I'm like I totally like this guy haha Great one!

Ok so I'm not sure if I'm supposed to edit this into my original post but I'm not going to because I posted it two hours ago and I thought someone else would have posted by now. Which brings me to my first point, Guys we need to be Active!!! Only through analysis can we catch elims and if there is no discussion then we can't analyze. So as I was reading through the previous cycles I noticed some things. and these are in no particular order. @BrightnessRadiant was the one that suggested that we announce what we were going for. at the time this made sense to me but looking over everything Joe then claimed to be going after the map and got killed. I think it was because the elims knew he was going for the map and wanted to keep it on the field. Luckily for us Alvron grabbed the map and it is now hidden somewhere and will hopefully be used soon. This combined with her few posts (even though the excuses sound legit... but wouldn't an elim use legit sounding excuses ), and her being amoung the 6 original suspects do make me a bit concerned about her. @A Budgie I kind of hate bringing this up as a reason to be suspicious of someone but Budgie has only posted a total of 3 times in this game (4 if you count sign up). He is among the original 6 suspects and appears to me to be trying to avoid attention and making the bare minimum posts. He has definately been on enough to put in an action but it doesn't appear as if he actually has. I definitely would at least like more participation from him. @Steeldancerwas the first to vote for alvron though this was admittedly the first cycle, but he didn't vote for alvron the last cycle, and he and orlok had a bit of a spat over PM's. I don't fully understand it but I guess maybe Orlok may have messed up one of Steels plans about dividing information and hasn't posted yet this cycle. And lastly is @Elenion through my rereads came out as a bit suspicious to me. I don't think I noticed it the first time because he backed me up as being likely village but he immediately backed up my analysis of the six and said we likely had 2 elims in the group because the map stealer (which we now know was a false assumption). If there is only 1 elim in the group of six I think an elim would be happy to trade 5 villagers for 1 elim and it doesn't seem like the elims are targeting any of us in the 6 yet, likely leaving us for lynch opportunities. He has already accused BR (which granted she is on my list too) but just for science lets assume there are 3, 4 or 5 elims and see our percentage chances. 13 total 1 elim in group 2 in group in group 20% 40% out of the group 3 total elims 28.50% 14.29% out of group 4 total 42.85% 28.50% out of group 5 total 57.14% 42.85% So by what we are guaranteed (1 elim in the group) it looks like our chances of finding an elim is better if we look outside of the 1st day group of suspects. If we know two elims are in the group the chances are a bit better to hit one. Now if we make the assumption that Orlok is the thief and eternum is a villager 13 total not including orlok and eternum 1 elim in group of 3 2 in group of 3 in group 33% 66% out of the group 3 total elims 28.50% 14.29% out of group 4 total 42.85% 28.50% out of group 5 total 57.14% 42.85% which does give us slightly better odds in the group assuming there are 3 total elims or way better if there are 2 elims in the group. But at this point I'm not sure if there are 2 elims in the group I have 2 suspects for sure but I'm not sure if both are elims to say the least. Sorry for the ramble at the end there kind of thinking out loud, but my point is that the assumption of 2 elims would make targeting insdie the group much more attractive but we dont KNOW that there are 2 elims in the group.

I still need to reread the past cycles to check against assumptions I have made so I will make a more detailed post later. But I did want to voice some thoughts I've been having. First is Orlok... yesterday was a real game changer I said last cycle I thought Orlok was villager because of their posts and I guess I was... sort of right, at least in the fact that he is not elim ( though if he was boy oh boy what a play! haha). He did suggest that we hamper ourselves because this game is not in the elims favor (I'm not experienced enough to make a call on whether this is true or not, but it seems to me that we didn't really get as useful information today as we did cycle one so it doesn't seem broken to me but maybe I'm missing something) I only bring this up because... the thought crosses my mind that though orlok is a neutral party maybe he isn't neutral in his gameplay. I'm not accusing him saying that he is going to favor the elims with his playstyle, I'm just saying he might not completely favor the villagers either. It's just a thought that I had that I think we should watch for. Next is Eternum, so I did ask orlok to confirm about eternum that he did message him about being scanned and orlok wouldn't confirm or deny either way so as to not help eliminate or expose potential elim suspects. So... I guess Eternum is still not completely off my radar yet because without that confirmation he is just backing up what orlok said innn a previous post, that being said it would be a ballsy move to risk yourself on a lie like that not knowing that orlok would expose you or not. Anyways I don't want to cast a vote until I reread the past cycles.

Excellent! Who did I just out so I can rub it in their face?

Scar wasn't evil, he was just misunderstood

True but it could have been a villager with sneak that took the map and they just don't want to claim because it might get stolen or they might get killed by elims. That's true I guess down the line using an item will be an alibi so we can't narrow down easily but I think we will be able to narrow down still. If we get a lucky early elim kill it will put a lot of pressure on them as the rotation will be cut shorter for them. Edit dang got ninjad by a bunch of replies

All Hail thief mayor Orlok, may he be the last to die! Seeing how things are going, I still don't really get a elim vibe from Alvron but It's really late to propose someone else. I'm a bit suspicious of Eternum and his convenient crab acknowledgement but at the same time I am less sure than I was when I initially voted for him. Which brings me to the next point, I was having a PM with Alvron and he did bring up that we are only guaranteed 1 elim in the 6. We dont know that an elim took the map and we know who the thief is now (I doubt he is lying though if orlok was an elim claiming the thief and getting the gun would be a brilliant move). So I don't know if we want to dwell on the original 6 entirely too much. I kind of wish someone outside of the six would have brought this up since I know that this might look like self preservation but I do worry that we could lynch 4 innocent and 1 thief just to get to an elim. But I digress But I will take my vote off of Eternum at least for now and I really hope to hear more from brightness radiant and A Budgie in the future cause right now it feels like they are lurking/ RL problems.

It's very possible I misunderstood you seeing how I'm missing tone and body language and all. But "agree with" is a pretty vague term you have to admit. I mean an eliminator who joined a bandwagon could easily say "Oh I agreed with X's arguments about Y's actions" but it wouldn't make it any less true that they were joining a bandwagon and trying to blend in. So as your statement stands it could be basically any bandwagon that you choose to agree with after it forms. On the other hand if you do have suspicions already, why didn't you voice them in the original post rather than saying you would wait to vote because you weren't sure to vote for?

Well I originally voted for Brightness Radiant because I thought a 5 way tie would be pretty fun. but looking at the votes currently, Vote tally: Alv (4): Drake1, Kynedath1, Jon2, Len2 Eternum (0): Jon1 Orlok (2): Len1, Steel1, Cae1 Monster (1): Alv1 BR (1): Monster1 I don't think that is happening anymore :/. The thing is I don't have a good read on Alv but my gut is telling me he would blend in a little bit more than he is doing now if he was an elim. I'm not sure but that is my gut feeling. I don't really like either one of the two candidates with the most votes being lynched though admittedly I have NAI readings on the other 3. Though Eternum mentioning he would jump on a bandwagon if one forms makes me a bit wary about him as if I were an elim I would probably say I would join a bandwagon to lessen suspicion if I joined a bandwagon later... crap I'm going into IKYK territory already. Nevertheless It's the most suspicious thing I have seen so far so I will take my vote off of BrightnessRadiant and put it on Eternum

If it was to anyone else he would be doing it to spare your conscience. But yeah to you it was petty and in spite of you

I was originally worried cause he hasn't responded to my PM's either but I think maybe it is because he is in charge of AG4 right? So he is probably busy with that. I kind of get a villager read from him personally but what are teh two things he has done that make you think he is elim Drake? I will reread his posts though cause if two of you are thinking it it doesn't hurt to double check. Edit: Just noticed on my rereads of his posts that he did say he was "unwell" which might explain his lack of posts. And unless he has used that excuse before in previous games I'm kind of inclined to believe him *shrug* but I will keep reading back.

... hmmm I guess If I did die it would give me more time with the puppers jk jk I don't want to die and leave the village in worse shape so I wont purposefully try to die... but I can kind of see why Alvron likes this because the suspense is kind of addicting haha. Ok who else is among the 6 then that wasn't voted for? BrightnessRadiant there we got 5 now

Why? is there vote manipulation in this game that we can analyze? Hahaha I kind of figured that you acting quirky in and of itself wasn't an indicator... but if you start talking to ruin again *gestures to voting box* Side note sorry I haven't been RPing I meant to this game but anytime I try I feel like my character comes off a bit... culturally insensitive maybe so I think I'm just gonna avoid it. That and Rping in rithmatist land feels hard in general maybe because we don't know as much about it as other worlds.

I was hoping to read over stuff day 1 would help narrow things down... but there doesn't seem to be much there that I can tell besides Alvron creeps me out as a clown , and I thought that living might be the thief just from RP but I don't think he would grab a crab if he was... but a thief probably wouldnt grab a bribe either. I haven't played with Orlok before, but I get a villager vibe from him. It seems to me he is just trying to generate discussion and analysis. But I know that one of my big problems in the games I play is that I am too trusting. @Alvron was acting kind of crazy in the QF game and sticking out like a sore thumb but I'm not sure if thats the way he always plays so I think that is NAI at least with what information I have. @Eternum, @A Budgie, and @BrightnessRadiant I don't know anything about and nothing really stood out to me about them day 1 :/ And me... as elenion pointed out I am a suspect unfortunately and I don't know how to prove that I am village yet.

I did not get one, but I haven't gotten PM's from anyone so yeah.

Oh sorry good point. Sorry, I didn't grab an item

Oh that's a good point I didn't think of that that the person with the map itself could be another elim! Ok that gives usa bit better odds 2/5.

Ok so I'm sorry I missed a whole bunch of stuff I was writing a post last night aboout the day 1 lynch arguement being the wonly thing that stood out to me and then since I woke the puppy for the picture the puppy started whining , Then I really messed up because I thought the night cycle was next and was when we got to take stuff from the supply! Sorry I didn't read the rules up front I see now they are combined, but as a result I didn't grab anything... But If I understand the rules we should be able to determine who did the killing right by who didn't steal something right? So That means that there is me, @Orlok Tsubodai, @BrightnessRadiant, @Eternum, @Alvron, @A Budgie that didnt take anything or took the map. I'm guessing the elim that killed might claim to have taken the map since we don't know who took it. I have only played with Alvron before in the QF game and I died pretty quick in that game so I don't really have a read on anyone else of those that I listed but I will catch up on what I missed last cycle and post again. Edit: rereading my statement I meant to say that one of us 6 must have been the killer and since I know it wasn't me (cause I'm an idiot) then 5 people is still a lot of people to choose from more than I thought there would be when I started this...

Oh my goodness you guys just reminded me I haven't taken a picture of it yet. Let me rectify that right now! Not the best picture I couldn't get him to look at the camera haha poor guy is really tired from his day today. Sorry about the distractions though I will read through the thread right now and post responses.

Hey GUys sorry I haven't been active yet. I'm getting a new puppy today so I have been busy puppy proofing the house! I will be on later today though I promise.

First post on a new page and the amount of scrolling needed is already staggering! I haven't had a chance to read all your post as I must get back to work (and I don't have a 2 hour lunch ) . I did really like this part though This stems from an issue within Shallan, and I think it has to do with her deliberate degradation of him throughout Oathbringer. This is part of point #1 It seems to me that shallan ever since the Helaran debacle only tries to view Kaladin shallowly(sp?) I think this is because she is afraid it will unbury the truth that Kaladin murdered (In shallans heart) / killed Helaran. So if she just doesn't think about Kaladin deeper (like some of the reasons she liked him in WoR is that he was clever) then she doesn't have to worry about thinking about Helaran. I do think that part of her attraction to Kaladin is buried with that memory as a result and it just leaks out as only physical attraction I guess.... Man I wish I could form my thoughts into sentences as well as you guys can.

Yup there is,

So just looking at this thread again in a while and I noticed two things... 1. It appears I missed some stuff but not too much and 2. that Dreamstorm and SLNC are getting a crap ton of rep from this thread, like memes kind of reps! But I digress, this seems to be one of the only places I can discuss shallan topics (especially divorce) without being immediately called a Shalladin shipper (which I'm not) and to get over it she made her choice. I wish I could find a bigger audience to discuss things with but at this point starting a new topic to focus on things doesn't seem to work. They just die out from hate basically and maybe one or two insightful comments. My question to you guys is if a divorce Happened do you think it would be mutual? and How would it affect Adolin? Shallan? And would/is Shallan's bond weakening with pattern because of this/other things Shallan isn't acknowledging? I personally think that it would be a decision by Shallan not mutual and would kind of broad side him. Adolin would become super (almost Kaladin levels) depressed about it but I don't think he would "break". I think Shallan would feel bad but ultimately more free and know what she actually wanted to be / become. I'm not sure about my own pattern question (I'm not sure about any of them otherwise I wouldn't want to discuss them with people ). But it seems to me that her bond should be weakening since she doesn't confront the truth about Heleran (like I said earlier), her feelings for kaladin, and that she is a ghostblood. Btu I haven't seen much evidence of pattern regressing unless he maybe hummed more to himself near the end of the book but I didn't count his hums throughout so that may be me mis-remembering.

I'll sign up as Nb'Nub

I mean once again we are basically just arguing over what the definition of broken is. I agree with you Greywatch they don't have to be completely non-functional Lopen is a great example (though he might be broken in the head a bit ) I guess what I'm trying to say is that the definition of broken to brandon and to people on roshar and to each one of us could be completely different. I do believe that there has to be cracks in the soul, but having cracks i wouldnt neccessarily say in and of itself makes you broken. I feel like we are arguing over the definition of chair and whether a three legged stool is considered a chair. We all agree we can sit on it. But we might not all agree on if it is a chair. I am interested on how you came to this conclusion though Calderis?