MonsterMetroid

Ok I agree with you that hoid taking odium seems unlikely but it is possible since Odium is the antithesis of hoid he might have figure trying for it might give him. But like I said in my earliar analysis( on page 2) I think khriss definately used her ability to target two shard and odium is one of the ones she targeted. Oh sorry I did mean to remove my vote from you I got distracted Devotary ( just don't be suspicious anymore haha)

@Fifth ScholarI would like you to explain how you think that odium is for sure in village hands.The way I see it I think Odium is just as likely if not more likely to be in eliminator hands but I want your take to see if I am missing something.

I've been trying to think what khriss and hoid would do on the night turn. I haven't figured out hoid yet but I think Khriss would draw from both ambition and Odium to get charges from both draw from both odium and ruin and hope to gain a shard This would allow khriss to kill someone to further their main goal or possibly gain a shard to advance their side goal potential. In either case I do think that khriss targeted Odium and could potentially have odium. As for current reads... I am a bit suspicious of Devotary as orlok has pointed out I dont see much reason/reward for EL to lie in comparison to the risk and my gut (whihc wasnt wrong during the QF ) just kind of says so too. Pyromancer feels off to me... he definitely doesn't feel like a new player to SE and what he says "offhandedly" feel like it could be calculated. I need to go back and read magestars posts especially after orloks posts, speaking of orlok I need to go back and read his first days posts to see if his opinions have changed at all... Conversion games are hard! For now I will put a vote on devotary Juwst in case I don't make it back this round because of chores ( I really need to do laundry today and clean my room and several other things) I definately will try to post more thoughts later though

Well... with Odium gone assuming that the person with it isnt gonna just sit on their hands we really need to protect cultivation from being shattered. It kind of sucks that it wasn't released

Devotary was actually an elim last MF I played in so I know it isnt his first time.

Oh sorry I meant Dominion not devotion.

this made me laugh I 100% agree with this. As much as I would like to win an SE game for once I dont want it to be because it was boring and easy. I think it would be fun to have a shard or be surrounded by shards. That being said... I dont like odium he feels anti fun. So i hope whoever gets odium plans with devotion to redirect odiums attack to shatter himself because shattered shards sound dumb IMO, heck I would kill myself if people would like me to do this plan ( if someone brings me back as a returned eventually at least )

that should be khriss's special rule Hoid cant kill and Khriss cant return home haha

Yup it is three and remember if someone is holding a shard they can't be converted so they wont be targeting people they assume have a shard (unless they want to confirm it i guess...)

2 conversions huh... with so few I wouldnt necessarily say that hoid and khriss are guaranteed to convert someone tonight and might instead try to go after shards liekely to be taken tonight. My thought behind this is that waiting for one or several lynches will help their coverts to avoid being lynched (cause they dont exist) and allows for a quicker swing as things get closer. Now I'm not saying they won't do it tonight... I am just saying that I think it would be foolish to make assumptions based off of the fact taht they are we only two converts. ----- Willie looked up from his grass cutting for a second "Whit. Whit dae ye mean whit? Dae ye want me tae call ye 'What'?" Willie looked at Elaria (@Elbereth ) with a suspicious narrowing of eyes "Ye think tae mak' me a butt o' a joke don't ye?" at this Willie returned to cutting the grass he was mostly done now. "Anyways tis bin a buzz tae rush tae yer hulp 'n' cut this grass twa times, bit ah hae other hings tae dae than blether tae a bampot" Willie looked up at the researcher again "If yi''ll need anythin' ye better say sae afore ah finish again a've git tae wash containment o' th' filth" Willie said to her, He wasn't a bad man and wanted to help if she needed it for real but if she was wasting his time he had to clean up containment, He got a message from management that it had a huge mess because of a shard escaping, Storming things no good could come from having so many in one place Willie thought.

Willie got a notification on his phone "The Survivor held Survival but lost it, learn more by clicking here - Starlight Enquirer" Wille put his phone back in his pocket and continued working. ------ @TheYoungPyromancerin actuality that does suck though sorry

@Elbereth "Ye know Willie is a is a waitin' tae hear whit ye need help wi'" Willie said as he was cutting the last blades of grass to make them even. "What should Ah e'en call ye? Re'searcher? Eg'Head? Nyaff? Wee lit...." Willie was interrupted as the earth began to shake violently, the surrounding walls began to groan with the strain and the trees danced erratically. After what felt like an eternity it finally slowed down and stopped. "By ruins own cremhole, what was 'at?" Willie picked himself up hand feeling the long soft grass.... Willie looked around "Ah C'mon now! Are ye serioos?" All the grass was longer than it was before he cut it. Willie sighed audibly in resignation "Weel th' grass isn't gonnae cut itself" Will got down on his knees and began to use the shears, again gathering the cuttings as he went along cutting precisely and quickly as only someone with years of experience could. --------- I really don't have anything different to say from last cycle... the problem is I know that by saying that the elims could easily hide by saying something similiar so does anyone have any ideas to generate some constructive discussion this cycle? Haha this made me laugh, sorry Eobard next time I guess.

Willie was no further than 100 steps when he heard it. The cry of "Hey! Come back here, I need help!" was definitely coming from that same researcher rust and ruin was she trying to drive Willie bonkers. Well it would be nice to finish with Garden 4 so he didn't have to walk back. At that thought Willie made his way back to the Garden to see what the woman needed. When Willie entered the garden again she hadn't moved yet but she was awake. "Willie herd and cam a runnin, if ye move off that der grass then Willie will listen tae ye story." Willie gestured to his grass clippers once more.

Zahel says in his interlude that From this I just have understood it as the storm fills the cracks in zahels soul like a gemstone since it has room for it. That he doesn't actively have to seek the investiture.

next night cycle kriss could if she took two charges today then traveled during the day cycle but I doubt she would do that

As for my current reads/gut checks Rand: leaning slight village Pyromancer : leaning slight not elim, 70% sure not Alvron Drought: leaning slight not village Orlok; 50/50, 99% sure is orlok MonsterMetroid: 100% jealous Alvron doesnt follow him

@Droughtbringer I'm pretty confused at first you said that you wouldn't reveal survival I'd say no, as: 1. It goes against Survival's potential win con 2. Could help Odium later on 3. Let's Elims know who not to convert But then you make a post possibly outing survival in great detail as to why you think they might be This reads as slightly... too much. I feel almost as if you are Survival. This, combined with this: And the fact that... 8 out of your 12 posts so far have been explicitly about Survival. (You've had 12, but one of them was just RP, but also talked about survival, so that would be 9 out of 13) I feel almost as if you are trying a bit too hard to distance yourself from Survival. If you are Survival, then it shouldn't be too big of a problem, as you can't be converted, and you have an extra Shardic Protection life, as well as being able to gain an extra life each day turn. So you should be good if you have Survival, and I've outed you. If you don't have it... then that works well, as well, as the Elims might not convert you for fear of you having Survival, and hit the actual Survival. So, without you claiming (Please don't claim that you have it, at this point, only claim that you don't) we still leave the elims in a state of uncertainty, while giving the village a bit more information. Maybe this is the wrong call, outing a potential Survival, but, I think that it is pretty good. Feel free to yell at me about it if you disagree. Edit: Due to Pyro's edit, he now sits at 9/12 or 10/13 with RP included for posts about Survival. This seems really inconsistent with me and I can't figure out why you would go from one opinion to another so quick.

Ah ok gotcha sorry I was just rereading the rules and found why you said that they might go to Taldain which makes sense now. My only concern with starting a planetary role call is that it would make it so that Hoid and khriss don't even need to go to taldain, they could just follow the people they want to target, or that they volunteer to go to taldain to "Watch for others"

I don't follow, why would they go to Taladian? Aren't we all on Silverlight to start with?

Ok so we know that there are 22 players. 2 of us are "elim" leader roles right now. The square root rule for 22 people is 4.69 so around 5 elims probably but since we have two elim teams, that are versing each other, I am not sure how the square root rule works with multiple teams. I think that it could be safe to assume though that Khriss and Hoid can convert at least 2 people and at most... 4 probably, that would be pretty tough for 17th shard to win but since it is an action to convert maybe it would still be balanced. If Hoid and Khriss can only convert 2 I imagine they might wait one or two cycles before gaining their first follower, if it is more though I imagine the assumption may be correct that they will convert this cycle. I was sort of hoping calculating this might lead to some more useful information but I can't think of anything else to learn from this besides that we will have to recheck our reads on people constantly and safe PM's could turn unsafe with a cycle change so maybe don't advertise if you have PM's as they might target you for them.

@Seonid are the number of players they are able to convert public knowledge or is that only known to them?

Welp I guess we now know that there are only two elims (side note... it feels really weird calling them elims since their goals seem good compared to17th shards goal to keep all the shards for themselves.) I'm guessing then that Seonid just hopes that we don't actually lynch one of them right away since that would be a short game then? If we can get both Hoid and Khriss then any members of there teams would basically become traditional elims come to think of it since their alternate win con would become impossible.

Sorry for tagging you earlier @_Stick_ I wanted to just remind you that hoid cant take any kill actions according to the rules. But when I tagged your name on mobile my phone wouldn't let me type or delete another letter for some reason it was a pretty annoying glitch. So I decided to at least post what I had typed *shrug* As for analysis, gosh I don't know this game has so many facets. I would be lying if I said I didn't think it would be cool to hold a shard, but at the same time each shard released removes us farther from the sudden death win condition. I need to go over the actions we are allowed to take and reread the rules in general. I dont think we can make the assumption that it is only khriss and Hoid right now. dang ninjad by basically everyone, Dang I can't believe I missed something like that I will have to reread a lot. took too long with RP and getting distracted. I will post my reads soon from the abundance of new posts because I do think Orlok is right that we need to throw out thoughts to help gauge when someone is converted. ----- "Stormin Lass" Willie muttered to himself. WIlllie took pride in his job and trying to make sure that everything looked as best as it could but the woman would not wake up no matter how much ruckus, pointing and name calling he did. "Rustin' lass sleeps loch one of th' deid" Willie grumbled as he made his way to the containment room, trying his hardest not to think of the grass he left untrimmed under the researcher. The thought of it made the top of his balding head itch uncomfortably. ___ More RP to come once we get the write-up

I'm a bit confused on how survival already was released from containment... Was there a rule somewhere that i missed that allowed someone to release a shard so early? @_Stick_

:'( you will be missed joe