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TheMightyLopen

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  1. TheMightyLopen
    Congrats Aman! This'll be fun to watch. And I'll let you borrow Survival. May death surround you, but never claim you.
  2. TheMightyLopen
    Sorry I haven't posted until now everyone. I know I said I was gonna try and do some player by player analysis, but I've just been too busy. :/ I still would like to get that done sometime, but I'm not sure if I can do it this Cycle. @Elenion, in response to your post. I'll just respond to the things you mention as elim-y, if that's fine with you. 1. I don't feel like I understated the danger of Lines of Vigor. I was telling Orlok that his numbers might be optimistic actually, considering not everyone is a Rithmatist. I also mentioned the danger the Forgotten face by using Lines of Vigor specifically so that the Forgotten would realize that. I'd rather they not take the risk honestly, since I really don't want to deal with the headache that is conversions. >> 2. I'm not sure why you see it as backtracking. Joe specifically asked me why I hadn't removed my vote from Seonid, and mentioned it 2 or 3 times, so I think you can understand why I felt the need to explain my actions. I still stand by that vote, since it was better than doing nothing. So how is that backtracking? 3. My changing my mind about you is a fair point. I have yet to decide whether I'm suspicious of you or not. :/ And the point that I voted on a villager is just as fair to use against me as it is for me to use against Silverblade. I don't argue that point either. 4. I tend to react strongly to accusations against me, especially when they're from someone I suspect. So, we're just over halfway through with this Cycle, and we've got 12 posts now. With what, 2 votes? That's not gonna work. I feel partially to blame, since I've been using PM's more than posting. But seriously, we need more posts. At this point, from what I've gathered in PM's and my reads from the thread, here are the people I trust: Brightness Radiant, HH, Frozen Mint, Paranoid King, Orlok. Sort of Randuir and Jondesu. People I distrust: Joe, Elenion, Aman, Ecthelion, Seonid. Neutral: Ornstein. Joe has stuff to deal with in RL, so I'd feel bad lynching him while he's away. I'm gonna move my vote to Ecthelion for now, since he's barely said anything, except to vote on Len for not bandwagoning, which I don't really agree with. @Ecthelion III, care to contribute more than 2 sentences? You were very quiet in the thread in LG30, so I'm not going to ignore the fact that you don't seem very invested in catching the Forgotten. Also, as a side note, I think one of Seonid or Elenion is evil, but I'm not sure which. Similarly, I doubt Ecthelion and Elenion are teammates, considering Ecth is voting on him.
  3. TheMightyLopen
    Well I am active. Which always makes someone a viable kill target. But yeah, I'm not a good target. I have a feeling there's more blood involved than normal, so I'll pass, thanks. >>
  4. TheMightyLopen
    That was the point. Also Mark wanted me to prove my role, so I told him exactly what I was sending, and at the time, I was really sleepy and didn't want to think of anything complicated. XD Like Wilson said, Tin isn't a good power for a convert, so unless you want to waste a kill on me, I should be okay. And this way you won't want to convert me either. It's really a win-win, and if I die, it's still a win, since LG33 is about to start. So it's actually a win-win-win. I'd rather survive though, surviving is nice and I've been dying a lot recently.
  5. TheMightyLopen
    I feel like if HH was a Forgotten, he wouldn't so blatantly point out how he was right about the dead villagers. Sure, sometimes eliminators say they think someone is a villager to gain credibility, but this doesn't feel like that. There's no subtlety to it. That's my read of the situation at least. Only thing I wanted to comment on was your wording about Stick being "confirmed" village and not "revealed" village. You suspected her, and voted to kill her, so the wording seems strange to me. Maybe you already knew her alignment, hm? I get a post all about me? I'm looking forward to it! XD @Sart, in the write-up, you say Silverblade was killed and eaten by Chalklings. Is this how every Forgotten kill is going to show up as, meaning DA wasn't killed by the Forgotten? Or was it just flavor text? Still want to lynch Joe. Just so you all won't worry about me not talking about other players though, I intend to do some player by player analysis later tonight.
  6. TheMightyLopen
    The Forgotten could use Lines of Vigor on some of those using Lines of Warding though, and it's possible there could be 4 Forgotten. There's no way for them to know whose making the Lines of Warding or how many there are, so I feel like it's unlikely they'll do anything too dangerous this early. Just saying, only 3 Lines of Warding would be very worrisome. >> Also, in case I die, I'm suspicious of Joe and Aman right now. Aman said he's a little suspicious of Joe, but then chose to vote and focus on Stick(and now everyone's piled on to Stick). I feel like he's trying to draw attention away from Joe. Of course, if Stick is a Forgotten, that'll change my opinion quite a bit.
  7. TheMightyLopen
    Yeah, that is weird...works for me though! I feel like this means the Steel Spike didn't take, which is excellent. Since the beginning. I only ever sent 2 messages, the one about "this is not a secret message" and then the one where the capitalizations spell "TEST." And I suppose I'll put my vote on Rae once again. Discussion is really low though, so, I feel like we need some idea's to help things along. Anyone got anything? We could all reveal our roles or something. I just did after all. I have a good amount of information, so I could just dump it all. People might get mad at me if I did that though... >>
  8. TheMightyLopen
    Orlok, my post clearly explains that 5 Lines of Warding is the lowest amount I'd ever want to be up. I was trying to make it clear that we needed to make sure we had a consistent way to put up sufficient Lines of Warding, meaning 5 Lines or higher(and in my post I said it would be better if we could make more, but because of not being able to make the same Line twice in a row, I wasn't sure how good we could manage that). So by no means was I advocating that we figure out how to make 5 Lines of Warding and only 5 each Cycle. Honestly, my idea about the pairings wasn't thought out completely. You have a point that if we did do that, the Forgotten might be able to better time their Lines of Vigor. Mostly I was still arguing the pairs plan after Len put his coin plan forward because I thought it might be a good idea to have 2 plans around so players could think through them for themselves and decide which one they thought was better, which could give us some insight for how they were thinking. Besides that, I was also hoping my plan might make the Forgotten take actions that might incriminate them if we caught them using Lines of Making.
  9. TheMightyLopen
    You asking whether I killed DA and reminding everyone that I knew his role kind of seems like casting suspicion on me. I don't think it's all that suspicious by itself, but considering I already had a bad read on you, it's not helping your case. What exactly is the point of revealing that? If someone targeted me with a Line of Making, all they'd have to do is say "Lopen did not make the kill" and that'd be enough, wouldn't it? Unless you think I'd ask a teammate to do that, but that wouldn't be a very good idea... If it helps any, I've told Brightness Radiant what I did last Cycle, so she can confirm that I told her that if you want. I'd really rather not say in the thread, and I don't trust you, so I don't want to tell you in a PM either. I don't want you to waste your time focusing on me though, so if you insist on knowing what I did last Cycle, PM me and I'll tell you. Thanks for explaining. That sounds exhausting... >.< I'm pretty sure there'd be more than one eliminator, since it'd be almost impossible for any conversions to happen if they only have 1 player. I think almost everyone has agreed that 3 or 4 are the most likely. I'm guessing 3, but it's not a bad idea to assume the worst with things like this. I'm voting on Joe. I was not able to go through the thread like I wanted to, so this is just based on my gut read of him so far, with him not voting initially, then voting straw once I accused him of defending him, then sorta casting suspicion on me this Cycle because of DA's death(plus he says he thinks I'm a villager, and that tends to make me more paranoid of players, especially when they don't give much reasoning), and now he's voting Stick because someone accused him of defending her. All things considered, I'm not totally convinced Joe is evil, I know I sometimes tunnel pretty hard, but I'm going with my gut on this one. As for Stick, I am less sure of her village-ness after this Cycle, because I don't like some of the things she said, but I still feel like she's more likely village. She's always been pretty open with her opinions, so her saying things like "obviously" and such don't make me as suspicious as it might with other players. Don't forget to send in your Actions!!! (Inactivity deaths are the worst...)
  10. TheMightyLopen
    Nope, he never mentioned anyone else in our PM. I asked him to tell me his role since he'd offered in the thread(though I already was guessing he was a Non Rithmatist), he told me, I said choose wisely for who he picked to give a special power(or randomly if he wanted to cause chaos, hence the chaos stuff from before), then I told him my role in exchange. I didn't realize Non Rithmatists could only be villagers at that point, but I figured he was likely to be a villager based on his openness with his role and his posts, so I didn't see the harm in it. He did not tell me who he was targeting with his power though, if he used it at all. ...And no, I did not kill him. If anyone used a Line of Making on me, they'd confirm that. I guessed DA was a Non-Rithmatist from his earlier post about "yeah, and not everyone can makes Lines, because of Non Rithmatists" which was directly after my post about that, and then asked him in PM's to confirm, just because I was curious. Anyways, considering Sart's clarification that all Non Rithmatists and Acid Specialists are villagers to start, I'd guess that the Forgotten had figured he was a Non Rithmatist too and killed him because of that. Also, with me clearly stating in the thread that he'd told me his role, they may have been hoping to cast some suspicion on me for his death if their guess of his role was correct(I'm looking at you Joe). As for the voters on Straw, obviously I know I'm village, I'm leaning village for Brightness, no idea about HH, and I think it's pretty clear that I don't trust Joe. Besides that, I've got a village read on Stick and Frozen Mint. Kind of Orlok, Jondesu, and Elenion as well, but less so, since I've had trouble reading them in the past. I'm not sure I can get a village read on randuir at this point... I don't trust Aman, but I rarely do. I feel like Seonid would have posted more if he was a Forgotten, but I'm not sure about that. Silverblade, I could see being a Forgotten, though that's partly because Joe said he had a village read on him and if they're teammates I could see Joe taking a stance like that with a teammate, and now that we know Straw is village, we know that Silverblade voted on a villager(which isn't much, but it's something). Overall though, I'm not that suspicious of Silverblade. I've no idea about PK or Ornstein. And I think that's everyone. People I would probably help lynch right now: Joe, SB, PK, Ornstein, HH, and maybe Seonid. I should go over the first Cycle again though, after which I'll vote on someone(probably one of those players, but I may change my mind completely after a thorough readthrough ). People I would be against lynching right now: Stick, Frozen Mint, Brightness, Aman(helpful for keeping legitimate discussion alive).
  11. TheMightyLopen
    Like I said before, I've been an elim with Stick, so I feel like I can read her to some extent, and so far she sounds more like villager Stick than eliminator Stick. It's just a gut/tone read. The comment she made that you mentioned as suspicious seems innocent enough to me, tbh, which makes me a little suspicious of you Len. Part of the reason I'm voting Straw is that it seems like there's been a little resistance in lynching him. Joe said he wouldn't mind if Straw or Stick got lynched, but doesn't vote on one of them. You vote on Stick as the 3rd vote to break the tie between Stick, Straw, and SB. Aman prodded Straw to speak up, while voting on him, which could have been a way to help Straw avoid the lynch by backing off once he responded more, but like I said, I don't think him and Straw are teammates since they're voting together. If Straw turns out to be an eliminator, I'd probably go after you or Joe. Depends on how the rest of they Cycle plays out though.
  12. TheMightyLopen
    Response to @A Joe in the Bush, with his words in bold: "I do like the pairing system, and would have supported it if Elenion hadn't brought up the coin plan. of course, there's the problem of the Elims getting partnered together, or of them all deciding to ward the same night, so that they can weaken the defenses all at once on a certain night. how would you have dealt with those problems Lopen?" I had not suggested a way for all of the players to be paired, and it's very unlikely that they would be randomly paired if there's as few of them as everyone is assuming. I doubt anyone would suggest any way besides randomly, and if they did, that could tell us something. Every plan comes with risks, but if you don't make any moves, the eliminators can win because of passive village play. There has to be the opportunity for them to slip up. "Lopen brings up good points. and then he poke votes seonid. (-_-) but yeah, he hits all the points i wanted to hit." It was like 8am, and I hadn't slept, but I wanted to vote. Figured I'd at least give someone a prompt to post something with actual content, rather than...what he posted. >> "dang it lopen. cause chaos later. plan now." But chaos is my plan. (I'm kidding, and my "asking" DA to cause chaos was also a joke. Obviously he told me his role and I gave him some good advice, then told him he could just cause chaos instead of listening to me. ) "So why aren't you retracting your vote on Seonid?" Ties are helpful for gathering info, and the votes were tied when I last posted. I gave my opinions on the players, and Seonid hadn't responded. There was no need for me to change my vote at that point. Why didn't you vote? You say you don't intend to this Cycle unless something is very suspicious, but that doesn't make much sense to me. It's Day 1, nothing is going to be that suspicious. I get that you're busy, but you just went and responded to every post, and even mentioned you'd be okay with lynching Straw or Stick. Why not vote on one of them? I was hoping for more than that @Seonid. If you're a villager, we need you to be discussing things! There's 3 lynch targets, could you at least give your opinion on them? I'm moving my vote from Seonid to Straw, mostly because I have a village read on Stick and kind of a village read on SB(less so than Stick). I don't really think him and Aman are teammates though, based on the fact that they're voting together on Day 1. I haven't really seen anything to make me suspicious of Aman yet either, so it was mostly a bout of paranoia(I will stay paranoid of him until I see good reason not to). The new colors annoy me for some reason... @Frozen Mint, the dead villager is what gives us the evidence we need for a solid lynch. Without a lynch on D1, we're in a similarly clueless state on D2. Not saying I suspect you because of your stance on the issue, just that I don't think it's a good strategy. And we have lynched eliminators on D1 before, multiple times.
  13. TheMightyLopen
    Aman, I did think about using a mention for Seonid when I voted on him, but I thought he'd see it without the mention. I didn't think it was necessary to mention Orlok either since he was looking at the thread right then. I'll keep it in mind though(the need for mentions annoys me, but there is a need sometimes >>). Oh, look, the player I voted on hasn't responded to my vote, so there's no need for me to comment on the lynch. Nice! ...I'm kidding of course. Stick seems like she's a villager to me. I've played with Stick when she's been an eliminator, so I feel like I can read to her some extent. Straw, I'm undecided on. He has posted more than usual for Day 1, thanks to Aman's proddings, but I haven't seen enough to say either way at this point. Silverblade, eh, I don't see his vote as too unusual or suspicious. I don't remember how he plays as an eliminator compared to when he's a villager, but it seems close to how he always plays(but do speak up more SB!). Out of the 3, I'd vote on Straw or Silverblade. Probably Straw, because I'm kind of paranoid of you Aman and I could see you voting on Straw like that and then getting him to speak up like he has a lot easier if you guys are teammates. I also have a bad feeling about Joe, but that's entirely gut, so I should ignore it. I thought Brightness sorta sounded like she's a villager. Len is only making plans and not voting or commenting on the votes. Not sure if that's suspicious for him or not. That's about all I can think of for now. And you got 'em all Aman. Steph is my little sister(she said to say hi to you, so "hi" ), and Biggo and Brightness are older than me.
  14. TheMightyLopen
    I said that you could, not that you should. It might make things interesting though. Sart, is there only one Non-Rithmatist and Acid-Specialist? Whoops, forgot about that Randuir. Or did I?
  15. TheMightyLopen
    Orlok, while I agree that the form of dictatorship you're talking about is a danger with my plan of pairing players, I purposely did not suggest that every pair just use Lines of Making on their partner. This is a futile action in and of itself, considering the Forgotten could just do what any normal Rithmatist might do while we lynch villagers and they kill them. Something else you're forgetting is that not everyone is a Rithmatist. It's likely that we've got Non-Rithmatists and I'm guessing we've got at least one Acid-Specialist to block the first conversion. This somewhat clears up the issue of dictatorship as well, given not every pair will be made up of 2 Rithmatists. So the Forgotten won't be quite as crippled as you suggest, though they still might play it safe. I'd guess we have somewhere around 13-15 Rithmatists, leaning more towards the higher side, considering multiple Non-Rithmatists makes it possible for a lot of kills early and multiple Acid-Specialists makes it really hard for the Forgotten to get a conversion. Anyways, this also affects your numbers about how safe we are. If we only have 13 or so Rithmatists, the amount of Rithmatist deaths until we're able to be overrun on a given Cycle is lower than you're suggesting, although it would be a risk for all of the Forgotten to use Lines of Vigor considering some villagers will likely be using Lines of Making on suspicious/lurking/questionable players. I do like the sense of urgency you're suggesting we play with though. All of that being said, I am okay with plan 'let's all flip coins.' I think it'll work just as well to get the Lines of Warding up, though it doesn't give the added benefit of giving players some accountability. Seonid, you haven't posted yet, even though you were online. Do you have any thoughts about the plans put forward, or what they might say about the players who suggested them?
  16. TheMightyLopen
    ...Why yes it is! Interesting. I had forgotten that.
  17. TheMightyLopen
    To begin the game, you don't have any roles as such. So when you get Elevated in a field, you gain an action period to use your new role. Some fields allow you to gain extra action periods, but only for that field. As an example, let's say you put your Elevation Points(EP) into Arithmetics and Archives. You get Elevated in Arithmetics first, giving you an action period to use the Arithmetic powers. Then, your next Elevation is in Archives. This does not give you another action period. Instead, you have to choose whether you want to use Arithmetics or Archives for your only action. However, if you get Elevated again in Arithmetics(or Archives), you gain a second action period you can use for Arithmetics. So you could choose to use Archives for your first action and then you could use Arithmetics as your second action, or use 2 Arithmetic actions.
  18. TheMightyLopen
    Mark claimed Soother to me, and proved it by Soothing Wilson and Kipper in previous Cycles. Also, as Silverblade pointed out, Mark wasn't online during the last Night that the Tineye sent a message, so yeah, sorry Rae. Praise the Ja!
  19. TheMightyLopen
    Maybe so. It might force the Forgotten to be accountable for their actions though, if they're worried that their partner might use a Line of Making to see if they're actually using the Line of Warding like they're supposed to. While protection is helpful, information is just as important, so Lines of Making are just as important to be using. I'd say that the 3 Rithmatic abilities that are the most important right now are Warding, Forbiddance, and Making. Also, while strategy for Rithmatics is important, please don't forget to vote! (I know I haven't yet, but I will at some point )
  20. TheMightyLopen
    Okay, first thing we need to figure out is Lines of Warding to prevent any conversions. This means we need to estimate how many Forgotten we think there are right now. I think I'd guess 3, considering there is the possibility for conversion, so their numbers should start a little lower than normal. Which means I'd personally prefer we have at least 5 Lines of Warding up, in case the Forgotten are able to break any with Lines of Vigor or there's 4 of them. Probably would be best to put up more than that honestly, just to be safe, but with the rule that you can't do the same action 2 Cycles in a row, we need to make sure we've got a good system for putting up Lines of Warding each Cycle. Obviously we can't just plan everything out in the open, since that would let the Forgotten know exactly who to target and when they can target someone. The more I think about this, the more complex it seems. >> Maybe we could do something like, pair players together? Which would give us 9 pairs, and then they could switch off doing Lines of Warding. Without saying who went first or whatever. Obviously, not everyone is a Rithmatist, so not every pair would be able to do a Line of Warding each Cycle, but we might be able to work it out. Thoughts? And to get the voting started, Elenion! I saw you around a little while ago, but you didn't post, so now I'm voting on you. ...dangit. Nevermind then! Flipping a coin won't give us an exact way to switch off, but I'm not sure a pairing system would either. Paranoid King, I won't vote on you, since you just came back(welcome back, btw!), but it would be great if you could post. I'll find somewhere else to put my vote later.
  21. TheMightyLopen
    I'll sign up as Lance Willis. He was discharged when his writing hand was severely injured, leaving him unable to do a Rithmatists job properly. He's practiced with his other hand since then, so when he heard they were taking anyone they could, he didn't hesitate to come back even though he's not back to his old self. Just a warning, but I won't be able to be quite as active as I normally am, since I'm alive in LG32 and I'm going to help El run LG33 very soon, so I'll be preparing for that and it'll probably start when this is still going. Looking forward to a Rithmatist game though!
  22. TheMightyLopen
    ......Good point. Sorry about that Wilson! >> Well, we're back to square one then. Anyone know of any Rioters? Praise the Ja!
  23. TheMightyLopen
    Just in case it isn't clear, Figberts told me he's the 3rd Snapped and that he's a Rioter. Here's what this tells us: 1. The last convert was something other than a Rioter, and Figberts Snapped into a Rioter by chance. - 22% chance 2. The last convert was a Rioter. - 78% chance Now, I'm not sure if this is official, but I believe the chances of the Snapped getting the previous role of the convert is about 78%(I think that's what Aonar said and no one disagreed with that), which is based off of what we know from LG2. So it's a lot more likely that the last convert was a Rioter before they were converted. Since Araris died, and he's the only one who's used Rioting power for a long time, this would mean the Rioter would have been either not using their power, or using their power to make it look like they were a Soother. As of right now, the only known Soother is Wilson, so, I do think this casts suspicion on her. It's obviously not the only answer, but I do think it's the most obvious one. Praise the Ja!
  24. TheMightyLopen
    Admittedly, I was a little worried after his last post. Now we've still got the Inquisitor and the Thug/Regular to find. And I imagine we'll have a Spiked Coinshot/Regular at the end of this Night. Hopefully we'll get lucky and they'll just turn into a Regular. Here are the player numbers. 18 players. 16 villagers, 1 Inquisitor and 1 Spiked. I think it's safe to say the the Inquisitor and their new convert are both active players, meaning whatever inactives we've got, they're probably villagers, so our numbers aren't as high as they seem. I'd say we have at least 3 or 4 inactives, though I'm hoping a couple of them will still come back. The fact that someone Snapped when the last convert happened means it's likely they were previously a Misting of some sort. I've asked around quite a bit, but can't seem to locate the 3rd Snapped. :'( However, we do know that both Wilson and Hero are/were Mistings, as well as at least 1 active Tineye(there seems to be another one, but they might be inactive or a Mistborn instead), so it's probably a good idea to watch them closely from here on out. Other than that, I really don't have any leads for the most recent conversion, considering it just happened and we decided on lynching Rand pretty much at the beginning of the Cycle. Praise the Ja!
  25. TheMightyLopen
    Yeah. Might have been caused by my tunneling pretty hard on him. To be honest, I was extremely frustrated at that lynch, because I felt I'd proven myself, but most of the active players at that point were eliminators, and I'm not sure Drought really read all of my long explanations for my innocence. And like I just said, I was going after Jon pretty hard for a while, so I can understand why he chose to believe Ecth over me. Another thing I was frustrated with was not only the inactivity, but players constantly pushing to lynch the inactives Cycle after Cycle. I'm all for banishing inactivity, but lynching inactives over and over isn't going to get us anywhere. I'm aware that a fairly large percentage of those going after inactives were eliminators(Doc, Rand, and Alv), but the fact that people seemed to still trust Doc and Rand even after they were very passive with their votes/lynches means the villagers viewed what they were doing as a viable strategy. It's really not. The core of these games is the lynch, and I feel like people overlook that at times. I guess that's all. /rant
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