TheMightyLopen

Sigh. Of course he was village. :/ Sigh. I'm busy, atm, but I will try my best to get the promised analysis up before I go to sleep tonight. Just in case I don't though, we should really try to get more discussion going before the last hour of the Cycle. >> So even if I don't get all of my analysis done, I'll try to put a vote down at least, to help with that.

You could vote on Mage to prevent a multi lynch. Or you could cause a multi lynch. Sadly, I think the smarter move would be to prevent one, but it's up to you. Well, ninja'd. I guess it doesn't matter at this point.

Pretty sure that's not where my vote ended though. I'll poke vote fairly often on C1, but if I'm serious about lynching on D1, I have no reservations about bandwagoning(only for D1/C1 though, after that, I try to put together much better reasoning).

Thanks. Vote tally: Mage(2): Lopen, Ecth Ecth(1): randuir Ornstein(1): Elbereth Jedal(1?): Unodus? (I'm not sure if he actually voted on him) Sabaneta(1): Drought(I'm unsure if lynching the GM is wise, tbh. If this even counts as lynching the GM of course.) Just noticed the write-up was in! I love it Joe. XD

I don't see my name in green... Thanks for adding some reasoning though. The main point you bring up against me is my voting alongside someone else. If it was a normal Cycle, I'd understand, because I do tend to lead lynches rather than just hop on a bandwagon, but it was C1, which I make a point of adding my vote alongside someone else, because usually everyone else is extremely hesitant to put a second vote down on C1, so it ends up with a lot of players having 1 vote and no useful discussion really happens because no one is actually being threatened with the lynch. If you look back over D1/C1 of past games, I think you'll find that this is what I tend to do, unless I have a suspect that I have a really strong read on, which doesn't happen very often on D1/C1 of games. I'm pretty sure that BB hadn't responded to all of the questions when I voted on him, and when he finally did respond, I posted again, but decided to leave my vote on him because discussion had been almost solely about him and besides that, he voted on me and I didn't want to be lynched(at the time, I think BB had either 2 or 3 votes, so if I removed my vote, I could die to vote manipulation, which has happened to me multiple times on D1, and it really sucks ). Plus, with Mage, there was no actually reason to suspect him(unlike BB), so once he responded to your vote on him from D1, there was really no reason to add my vote to him.

So, I haven't done my analysis yet, but considering how late it is in the Cycle, I need to put my vote down sooner rather than later. I feel like this post by Mage is a delaying tactic. "I have reads, but I'm not gonna say what they are." This is a crucial time to be putting forward opinions on who you think is trustworthy or not. By not revealing your opinions, you're putting the responsibility of the lynch on the rest of the players, when we're in the same position as you if you're a villager. Coupled with your vote on BB on C1 after multiple other players had stated suspicion of him, which could have been you trying to get ahead of a bandwagon(admittedly, one that I jumped on as well, but I know I'm village), I'm putting my vote on you. Mage Could you try to explain your reason for suspecting me? Go through my posts, pick out something specific you thought seemed evil? I'm not sure that I suspect you for voting on me, because it seems like you vote on me quite a lot. >> But I would like a chance to defend myself. Besides that, what made you go from "gut says Lopen is evil" to "I'm convinced rand or Lopen is evil?" Rand says nothing in between those 2 posts, and I don't think I've ever been convinced someone is evil based only on gut. If no one else joins me in voting on Mage, I'll likely switch my vote over to Ecth, because between Ecth and Ornstein, I think rand makes a good point that Ecth's death will give us more information(if Ecth is evil, we should look a closer at Brightness, and I'd like to think me and rand would be soft-cleared and if Ornstein is evil, only El would be soft-cleared and we'd have no leads).

Okay, it's crazy late, so I'll keep this brief. I was really hoping we'd have got at least one elim with the combination of the lynch and the Knights kill. I'm kind of worried that the Knights might have an elim in their midst, and now that we know cloud was a villager Knight, I think it would be a good idea for the Knights to take a close look at each other. Hopefully the new Knight is another villager at least. Anyways, since we haven't killed an elim, El is right about the possibility that we haven't got long left. So we need to make each lynch count. I didn't have hardly any time today(or rather, tonight ), mostly because of LG33's rollover, and I was finishing a game with my bro until just a short while ago. But I'm hoping I'll have more time to commit to analysis tomorrow. Like I mentioned last Cycle, I'm somewhat trusting of randuir and Unodus, and I read El's long multi-quote post as villager-y, so I'd be against lynching them. Other than them, I don't have any village reads on players worth mentioning or that I'd defend against lynching. As far as suspects go, I'm currently a little suspicious of Mage and Hero, basically just gut/tone reads, and I'd like to take a look over Ecth and Ornstein's posts as well, given 2 of my village reads are suspicious of them. I did make a PM with Ornstein last Cycle, but only shortly before the Cycle ended, so he never responded(hasn't said anything this Cycle either). I'll try my best to do a full analysis of all of those players tomorrow, and decide my vote. Oh, and if we're saying who we've made PM's with, I made a group PM with my sisters(queensteph and BrightnessRadiant, in case anyone didn't know ) on the first Cycle. Haven't made one this Cycle yet. And now I should really sleep. Goodnight.

Okay, well, Cycle is about to end, and the lynch is basically decided looks like. I did do a quick readthrough of Cycle 1, but I didn't notice anything that really stood out to me as suspicious regarding the BB lynch. So far, my only reads are village reads on Unodus and randuir. Unodus, because he's sounded like a villager in our PM(although I do hope he'll post game thoughts in the thread...), and randuir because he figured out why there was no elim kill instead of going after me for being Tripped when there was no kill(and he's been very active, though I'm not sure if that's really alignment indicative in his case). If cloudjumper is evil, I think I'd suspect yitzi a little, for pushing for a double lynch on cloud and cluny. Because he may not have wanted to defend cloudjumper outright, but if he could get a kill on a villager alongside the death of a teammate, he might be able to do that without looking too suspicious. Of course, he backed off of that idea and is now voting on cloudjumper, but it could be a bus. If cloudjumper is village, I'm not sure who I'd suspect. I'd have to go over things again with that in mind. Phew. 5 minutes left. >>

Good catch, I hadn't realized that. I kinda wish we were all elims...that sounds fun. Sadly it is not the case this time. Anyways, that is odd that they'd convert C1. My guess for why they'd convert so early would be that they found either a smedry or a Knight of Crystalia player. Of the Smedry powers, the dancing and tripping talents seem like the most useful ones for the elims, dancing especially. So if you know of the players with these roles, I'd advise watching them very closely. Regardless, it's kind of a relief that we won't have to deal with a conversion later on. Conversions are always a pain... >> Bridge Boy, sorry for lynching you. :/ I know you haven't played in a while, and I thought about moving my vote simply for that reason, but there really weren't any better options. I do hope we can learn something from BB's lynch though. I'm pretty tired tonight, so I'll look over exactly what everyone said about BB tomorrow to see if I can find any suspicious behavior surrounding his lynch. Before I go to bed, I wanted to mention that I was Tripped this past Cycle. I only mention this because there wasn't an elim kill, and I don't want the Tripper getting paranoid that I sent in the elim kill or something and then out themselves and get killed to get this info in the open. I thought I may have been the target of the elim kill, but I asked Joe and he said that a protected against attack would show up in the write-up, so it appears that the elims didn't send in a kill last Cycle. I'd guess that they just forgot, since QF's happen so fast. Well, at least this proves I wasn't converted! Not that I was really able to prove myself before the conversion, but oh well.

Well, I'm not sure what to take from that response. On the one hand, I feel like an eliminator would try to come up with a more convincing case on someone else, but on the other, he's voting on me, which I don't like(retaliation votes are meh, though I admit to having bandwagoned. I think this is the most informative lynch we've got). I'm keeping my vote where it is. I'll likely not be on again this Cycle.

Haha. Actually, I just used roleclaiming as the example since it's the most common info to trade. It can really be any info. I'm sure he'd appreciate it...whoever he is. (Of course, I also enjoy getting information and often do roleclaim trades, so feel free to PM me if you want to give me info. Normally I make a bunch of PM's myself to get the info, but the way this game works, I'm pretty limited in how many players I can PM.) Fair point, but Ripple was only mentioning the elims as a passing thought. Bridge Boy mentioned them as if he'd just looked at his GM PM, considering it was only like, 5 minutes after the thread was posted...

But it would be really, really fun for sure. Also, not all librarians are evil. If that were the case, the books series would be called "Alcatraz and the Librarians" rather than "Alcatraz and the Evil Librarians" right? Of course, I could be missing something terribly important that says otherwise, and that's definitely possible, considering I'm just an ignorant girl who doesn't know anything about this stuff. Well, I had quoted this because I was gonna vote on Mage as well, because bandwagoning D1 always gets some nice reactions, but now he's responded, so I don't think I should. Yup. Go for it. Voting is always good, even when it's not. It's happened before. Probably. Best way to find out if it happened this time is to vote. On a more serious note, I'm actually in agreement with Mage on this one. I'm kind of just left confused by what BB was saying at the start of the game. I don't really have any questions to ask BB that haven't already been asked, but I'll add my vote to him alongside Mage since he's the best suspect I can see. Depending on his responses, I may move my vote somewhere else, but I am a big supporter or Day 1 lynches and the kickstart to discussion they provide, so I'd like to lynch someone(I'm not a big fan of lynching an inactive C1 though, just to be clear). Also, to add to what Hero mentioned, if someone is inactive/quiet, one way to get them more involved is to PM them. Sometimes it takes revealing your role to them to get them to talk much or trust you enough to confide in you about what they're thinking, but that's a small price to pay to get their thoughts on the game, IMO.

Wow. 20 players. I was thinking this game would only go like, 5 Cycles when I signed up(and then 8 players signed up in the last day or something >>). But eh, I'll make sure to stay active as long as I'm alive, and the more players the more people to lynch all at oncethe better!

Well, I'm not Elbereth , but I can answer that. You do have to use the Assassin the Turn you paid for it, and it's effective the same Turn you paid.

I'll sign up as Celica. When it comes to Evil Librarians and Hushlanders and Smedries...she acts as ignorant as I am. I haven't read the Alcatraz books, but this game looks fun, and I might be able to read the first one before the game starts.

I was thinking it was pretty similar too. >> Good game Forgotten. You caught some lucky breaks, like me randomly giving Frozen Mint the Assassin ability and Joe blocking Seonid's attack, but you also made the right calls at the end to take out mine and Brightness' protection. So kudos for that. And also, good work by Frozen Mint, since she was basically never under suspicion the entire game until the very end when it didn't make a difference. Village, just lynch Joe next time, 'kay? I also thought my sis, Brightness Radiant, played pretty well for her first game. We almost had 'em! It was fun being confirmed village roles together, though it took away some of the mystery of whether one of us might be fooling the other, since we roleclaimed to each other pretty early(she was worried Len was gonna kill her because she told him she was an Acid-Specialist, so she told me). Thanks for the game Sart! It was a lot of fun. Although I did say I thought it was balanced in the Forgotten's favor in the dead doc, I don't think it was unfairly so. We had our chances, and we've no one to blame but Amanourselves.

Exactly. I hadn't read them, but it was still amazing. And now I have read them, thanks to LG18!

Vote tally: Joe(3): Lopen, Brightness, Seonid Ornstein(3): HH, Frozen Mint, Joe Seonid(2): Len, Randuir Aman(1): Ornstein @Ornstein, @Elenion, @randuir, do any of you want to change your votes? The Ornstein lynch doesn't seem like a very good option to me. He's barely said anything and hardly anyone has said much about him. He didn't say very much in LG32 either, and he was village. I've spoken with him in PM's, but we haven't said much. I haven't seen anything from him that really makes me think he's a Forgotten though, so I'm concerned that he's tied for the lynch when it's such an important lynch. Maybe I'm wrong, but I know I'm village and I'm almost certain Brightness is, and I'm leaning village on Seonid right now. So between all of the lynches, the one least likely to be supported by an eliminator is the one on Joe. Rand, you've stated suspicion of Joe. If your vote on Seonid isn't going to do any good, wouldn't you rather Joe be lynched than Ornstein?

Okay, just in case I somehow die, here's as much analysis as I have the time for: Elenion - He came up with the coinflip plan, which wasn't bad. But he didn't comment on the lynch until I brought up that he hadn't. At which point he said the Straw and SB lynches didn't seem good(maybe he knew they were villagers?), and then voted on Stick(I didn't like his reasoning very much, tbh). 2nd Cycle, he votes on Joe instead of Stick, for discussion reasons. He says he has a village read on Brightness, me because of how open I was about contact with DA, and didn't think HH was being different than normal with his vote on Straw. So he was saying Joe was the most suspicious vote on Straw. After a while, Len switches his vote to Stick to cement that lynch. Stick turned out village, so Len reevaluated his reads. He said his elim read of Joe was based on the fact that he drew the lynch away from Stick, but since Stick was village, his read of Joe went back to neutral. He kinda backtracks on his reads of me and HH, saying he needs to analyze me more and it might be worth looking into HH. He also said he had a gut village read on PK. He then posted his analysis of all of my posts. Not much to say about that post, though I did kind of get the feeling he didn't want to give a strong opinion either way when he first posted it. He then votes on Ecth because of Ecth's vote on him, and the fact that Ecth didn't respond to Len's post in response to Ecth's vote. He says he's worried about the Ecth bandwagon later on, which could be him hedging, but leaves his vote on Ecth and also bumps me up to a village read instead of neutral(he seemed to be convinced fairly easily). And now he's voted on Seonid which was very early in the Cycle, but hasn't posted since. He's been around and responded to my PM's, but I find it suspicious that he hasn't been more active in the discussion today. This is likely the turning point in the game, so we need everyone to be discussing, not just posting once about one player. Overall, I'm fairly suspicious of him. Aman - I don't have a lot of time, so I'll skip doing a post by post analysis of Aman. His responses this Cycle have given me a slightly more village read than earlier, but I don't trust him all that much right now. He did tell me his role and what he's done so far, but I'd expect him to do that from either side. One thing I thought might point to him being village is that I feel like it's likely the Forgotten knew I was a Non-Rithmatist by last Cycle, and he did his post where he voted on me and cast suspicion on me. If he was a Forgotten, I think it would be likely that he'd have known I was a village only role, so I don't think he'd have tried to go after me like that. So overall, I'm not as suspicious as I was earlier, but am still wary. Seonid - I voted on him C1, but all he posted was the he tended not to participate in D1 lynches. I feel like he probably would have tried to post more if he was a Forgotten. After that, he focused on me for a bit, since he scanned me when I didn't make a Rithmatic action, which is understandable. He then posted that he had a bad gut read on Aman, but that he always does, so he doesn't really suspect him too much. He also said he didn't like the Ecth lynch, but since he was the second target, couldn't do anything about it, and other than that, didn't suspect/trust anyone very much. Again, it seems like a Forgotten would try to give more substantial reads so they wouldn't get suspected for not doing much. This Cycle, he revealed that he scanned me with a Line of Making, and said other stuff you can read for yourself that I don't really have a strong opinion of. Overall, I'm leaning village, since he's been open with me in PM's, and his posts have given me a village read. Also Len is voting on him. >> Jondesu - Since I'm running out of time, here's a few points in favor of Jon that I noticed quickly looking over his latest posts. He voiced suspicion of PK and voted on him directly before PK was killed by the Forgotten. I feel like he probably wouldn't have done that as a Forgotten(maybe, but eh ). He's also been fairly open with me in PM's, and I haven't really seen anything from him that's made me suspect him. On the other hand, I haven't seen a lot that makes me trust him, but since we've yet to find an eliminator, that's true for a lot of players. Slight village read. Joe - I don't really feel like going over all of the reasons why I suspect Joe. I've gotten a consistently bad read from his posts, and he protected himself when he was under a lot of suspicion(which isn't super suspicious, but meh, I feel like he would have known he wasn't likely to die by the Forgotten at least, so he would be less likely to protect himself as a villager). Also what Randuir mentioned, that he dared us to lynch him when it's a very important lynch. Maybe he only said that because he was frustrated with me for still being suspicious of him, but honestly, I'm not going to change my mind unless I feel like there's good reason to and I just haven't seen anything like that from Joe. Leaning elim, and hoping I'm not wrong. >> I think that's it for now. Understand that I have information in PM's that do affect these reads, but I can't share that information. Frozen Mint, I had directed that post mostly at Aman, so I voted on him. At that point, I was pretty evenly suspicious of them both though. I changed my vote to Joe once Aman had responded, since his responses made me slightly less suspicious of him. Oh, and to respond to Aman, PK was not one of the Artists who'd scanned me.

We really need to get our lynch discussions going a lot earlier in the Cycle. Once again, not very many players have posted or voted. I'd do some analysis, but I'm very tired and have no energy to do so. Aman, I'll try and respond to your post tomorrow. I suppose my suspicions of you have been lessened some from your responses this Cycle.

It was after Sart's clarification. I trust Brightness Radiant because I'm positive I'd be able to figure out if she was evil and all she's done so far feels like she's village. She is my sister after all. Frozen Mint, I had a strong gut read of early on, and also we've talked some in PM's. At this point though, I'm really starting to doubt a lot of my reads. HH, I can usually read pretty well, and I think he's sounded like a villager for the most part, plus he's been pretty open in PM's with me. Jondesu, not sure about, I have a weak village read on, but mostly just from gut. A little bit of reasons from PM's, but not much. Orlok, I thought his posts from D1 were village sounding. Admittedly, I can't read him too well, so I might be wrong. Other than that, I still don't know what to think about Elenion, you, Seonid, Joe, Ornstein, or Randuir. I think I had Randuir on my trust list before, but like I said, I'm doubting my reads and I don't have strong reasons to think he's village. Maybe so. That's not why I suspect you though. I got a bad read from the tone of your posts. You said you were sure I was village just from the elims killing DA, which kind of rubbed me the wrong way, because I get paranoid when someone is really confident about me being village as early as that. Then I felt like you were protecting Joe by drawing attention to Stick over him(while you didn't vote on Stick, the wording of that post makes it seem like you're more suspicious of her than Joe). I never said they couldn't be a Forgotten. Just that they likely didn't kill DA. I do suspect them, though I'm not sure how much. It would be a risk for them to tell me they're attacking Joe if they weren't sure they'd have some way to prove it. So I feel like it's likely that Joe is a Guardian and that they are an Assassin. They could be teammates though, which is why they were fine with attacking Joe right now, because they knew he could protect himself. I didn't have anyone watch them though. I haven't coordinated things nearly that good. Like I said to begin the game, I don't have as much time because I'm still alive in LG32 and I'm getting ready for LG33. I know it's only a game, but when I do invest a good amount of my time in something and nothing good comes out of it, I get frustrated. Plus last Cycle a lot of players were inactive. That, and I'm always grumpy when I wake up. Since I feel like it's almost impossible for the Forgotten to not know at this point, and because I don't want us to waste any more time on me, I'll just reveal that I'm a Non-Rithmatist. I was scanned with a Line of Making by 3 separate players, 2 of which were Artists.

Yeah, she did tell me she was Soothing Mage beforehand. Hmm, I wonder if that means she's in contact with a village Soother and is somehow controlling them to let her act like she still has her power when she's actually Spiked! I'm kidding of course. I think it's safe to say she's not Spiked.

No evidence, but the claim seemed like an honest one all things considered. It would be very strange to claim Assassin and that you could kill right then unless you were being honest. Uhh, I mentioned that I thought Stick was a villager because you said it looked like I "knew what the results of Stick's lynch would be." It was kind of strangely placed though. >> Anyways, my point was that I had said all along that I thought Stick was a villager, so me making assumptions based off of that doesn't seem strange to me. I think there was some good reason to lynching Ecth(he was acting similarly to how he has acted as an eliminator in the past), and no good reasons to think he was a villager. Whereas in Stick's case, I can usually read her pretty well and had stuck up for her a lot even before she was getting lynched, so I didn't just all of a sudden say "this lynch feels wrong and I think they're a villager." Which is what you did. Yes, a player did tell me they were protecting you C2. You and Joe don't absolutely have to be Forgotten. I just think you both are by process of elimination and not seeing anything from either of you that makes me think you're village. You've both been consistently wrong with your suspicions and I don't know what either of you have done with your actions. You don't think Joe protecting himself when multiple players are suspicious of him is suspicious? Like he just said, he's not worried about being attacked by the Forgotten now that he's revealed his role because the village(me?) announced we're trying to kill him. Before I announced that, multiple other people had stated suspicion of Joe, so wouldn't he have come to the same conclusion about not being attacked before? That's somewhat true. But usually one of us is an eliminator. >> I don't know why I didn't PM you. I've been busier than usual lately, trying to get ready for LG33 and I'm still playing LG32, but I have PM'd a lot of other players. I almost always had a specific reason for PM'ing them, and I just didn't really have a reason to PM you. I doubt anyone can verify that. The only thing that would verify that is if you believed the word of the Assassin. Though, I had forgotten, they told me they scanned me with a Line of Making C1 and proved it by telling me my action. So unless they're a Forgotten and one of their teammates did that instead of them, they couldn't have killed DA. Of course, in that case, it'd be obvious that I'm not a Forgotten as well. I would like to say that I am frustrated with not finding a Forgotten yet, and when I made my last post, I had just woken up to bad news(Ecth was village and no attack on Joe, plus another villager died to the Forgotten kill). So I was in a bad mood. I'll go ahead and change my vote to Joe, since I think I'm more suspicious of him than you. Aman. Ninja'd by Ornstein. No idea about him. He's active enough not to die from the inactivity filter, but he hasn't done much.

Well that is very disappointing. I asked an Assassin to attack Joe, since I'd moved my vote, but apparently that didn't work out for some reason. I'm not sure why yet. Aman, the Assassin in contact with me claims to have started as such I think, and they claimed they didn't kill anyone yet. So unless we started out with 2 Assassins(very unlikely), DA was the Forgotten kill. I'd said multiple times that I thought Stick was a villager. It looks like you already knew the results of this lynch. I don't see any good reason to believe that the Ecthelion lynch was 'orchestrated' by the Forgotten(besides the fact I know I'm village, the other voters had good reason to lynch Ecth and it's not like you can say a Forgotten was up for the lynch before that, since no one was really up for the lynch before that), so I think you were just looking for a way to change your opinion of me without seeming too suspicious. And because you've now changed your opinion of me completely, you gave yourself an explanation for why you've survived this long. Because of all of this, I want to lynch either Joe or Aman. I feel pretty confident that they're both Forgotten at this point.

I was more complaining about the lack of posts, and you'd posted a total of 2 times during the entire game, with both of those posts being just a few sentences(and the first one only saying you were busy). You can't say you've "been voting" either, when you've voted once and it's the 3rd Cycle. If I was a Forgotten, your activity would make you one of the lowest threats, so that last part is hardly the case with my vote, which you're implying. I knew you'd be around for the last bit of the Cycle, so I did consider leaving my vote on you, but I wanted to bring attention to Ecth since I felt he was lurking quite a bit, and he's done that in other games as an elim(LG30 and QF22 come to mind). I also feel like I'm tunneling on you to some extent. >> To clarify, I don't think Len and Ecth are Forgotten teammates. It's possible they're both villagers. How would the Forgotten defend Ecth? He hasn't really said anything. Only way I see anyone defending Ecth is by saying they have a stronger suspicion against someone else. But that could still look suspicious, since no one has brought up anything concrete this Cycle. 1. That's a fair point. I can assure you that I had only the best intentions behind mentioning the risk of using Vigor though, for the reason I mentioned in my last post. Yay! Another village read on me.