TheMightyLopen

Thanks. Well I was attacked by the eliminators...and sure, it could have been a WGG, but that's more than anyone else can say for their innocence. *I know Stick is a girl, I've played like 20 games with her. I said Stink As I mentioned earlier, I've done terrible. Most of my suspicions have turned out to be village. I'll give you that point as suspicious, but there's nothing I can do about that except continue to try to figure out who the real eliminators are. As far as my "excuses" of sleeping, I'm not even sure why you brought that up, tbh. I put it in blue text, and mentioned it only because I felt like it was effecting the game because I haven't done much analysis. I was talking about elim docs right there, yes. So I don't really understand what point you're trying to make. Anyways, I'll add my vote to Yitzi. I'll take a look at his posts hopefully before Cycle ends, but no promises. I'm voting him over Sart because I think Sart might be village, and I like the votes on Yitzi much more than the votes on Sart. One more thing we need to focus on: VOTE MANIPULATION! Considering how close this game is, we need to have a big gap on our leading lynch candidate to ensure no shenanigans(hammers, vote manips).

Yeah, after thinking more about it(and sleeping >>), I'm not nearly so suspicious of Orlok. I still feel he could be an eliminator, but the responses from him and others this Cycle also make me less suspicious. I'm still suspicious of Len as well, so I may as well change my vote over. Sorry for my absence. I don't really have much of an excuse this Cycle, except that I hadn't slept a lot the past few days, so it all caught up with me last night(meaning I slept a really long time... ).

I think Orlok is an eliminator. For 3 reasons. 1- He's still alive. Why attack Drake, Megasif, and Rae? They're not bad players, but Orlok has caught entire elims teams before, which you'd assume would make him a high priority target. This isn't a strong point, but I do feel it might have some merit. 2 - For as much as he's posted, and as many people have commented about him, I don't recall much, if any, strong reads on him. At this point in the game, I think the elims would either try to buddy up to him if he were village, or just kill him. But so far players just keep saying they're "wary" of him, or "kind of" trust him. I think this is because he's evil and his teammates don't want to implicate themselves or him by saying they think he's village, but they don't want to draw attention to him by putting him in their actual suspicions. This, I think, is the strongest point against him. 3 - My final point is just that I personally feel like his posts are just slightly off. I can't really put my finger on anything specific, but I've had this feeling most of the game. Probably the weakest point, tbh, since it's solely based on my ability to read Orlok, and I've had troubles in the past with that. Anyways, combined, these things make me think that there's a fairly high chance Orlok is evil.

Sorry about that. I mostly just mentioned you because I couldn't remember anything significant about you, so I wanted to review everything you'd said. I'm not necessarily suspicious of you, just don't have anything that tells me to trust you. So I'm basically in control of the lynch. Scary. >> Interesting. I'm tempted to switch to Yitzi, tbh. Or Len. Urgggghhhh. If my vote is moved, I think everyone should assume it was an eliminator. I'm getting better reads from Arinian's last couple posts(this is happening a lot lately). Same with Jon. I kinda feel like an eliminator would have gone out of his way to place his vote somewhere earlier, plus mentioning his role claiming with Yitzi feels villagery somehow. Y'know what, I'm going with Len. Purely gut on this one. If I'm wrong, sorry Len. And if I die, sorry everyone else. I know this hasn't been my best game. :/ Try to get the quieter players more involved, and try to get the voting going earlier. Arinian. Ninja'd...okay good, not a vote.

I was actually just trying to get some more information at the end of last Cycle. I did think it felt like a mislynch, but I overstated things just a bit to see who might try to save him. In Aman's championship game(the first one), the end of Cycle was a very important time because it got people to show who they'd really lynch or not. When I got online, PK had 5 votes and I don't think anyone else had more than 1, which meant no one else was probably going to weigh in in the last hour or so giving us no new information. So I thought I'd try and see who genuinely wanted to kill who, which might also give us good information if PK was an eliminator and someone tried to save him. I was just messing around with that comment about being cleared. I do think it points to my innocence(WGG's aren't really my style, and I would almost certainly vote against it in a QF where my team would have a 3 mislynch lead and still have a Truthless running around), but my opinion doesn't really make a lot of difference... Well, the players I mentioned as suspicious I just think haven't really put a lot of effort in solving the game. It's not that they've been inactive or anything, it's just that I've felt like most of their posts have been "safe" posts. I'm reading you as village, because I think you've sounded genuine so far. I do have a nagging feeling about you that I just can't shake, but unless I see something that really makes me doubt you, I'll likely ignore it. Winter and DA, I'm tonereading as village. From what I've seen of them before, they read like their past village games, I think. Sart, I'm torn about. I really didn't like his accusation of Arinian, but then I did like his explanation for that vote. Elith, I've had a mild village read on for most of the game, except last Cycle when I went after him a bit, which then changed back to a village read after his explanation. Bard seems like he's putting in a good amount of effort to analyze things, and it seems more like he's just putting his thoughts down than carefully constructing fake reads. Rae, mostly just a gut read. I don't recall anything specific. I'll likely vote when I get back from church. I won't have time for that analysis, which is too bad, especially if I'm killed. Currently, I feel like not many of the eliminators have been in the spotlight, so most of them have been able to hang back and not overextend themselves to help a teammate out of trouble or push a mislynch too hard(instead leaving up to villagers :/). Eh, I think I'll drop my vote on Arinian. I don't really have anything concrete to offer as evidence against him. Just have a bad gut read on him. I may change this when I get back, depending on what happens while I'm gone. Edit: bad read on Jon's last post.

Okay, thanks for the explanation. Yeah, that's why I haven't. I just offered in case anyone thought it was important to know somehow. Fair enough. I'm still not entirely sure what I think about Eternum. One minute I'll read him as village, the next I'm suspicious of him. That's partly why I'd like to do a review. Speaking of reviewing, my family is having (unexpected)visitors over, so I won't get to that for a while.

Just trying to figure out your thought process here. What makes a C1 WGG more valid strategy wise than a C4 WGG? Well, I didn't say I don't put effort into the game, just that I post less. I talk a lot in docs after all. But thanks for the kind of trust anyways. xD I could just say how I was saved, if everyone really wants to know. I'm not sure if it really matters. No, I deliberately didn't forget him. I only put him last because I have a somewhat stronger village read on the others. Sorry about making you feel weird. I would like to hear your reasons for suspecting Rae and Elith. I've kinda got a village read on you right now, but it's hard to have a village read on someone who's suspicious of 3 players that I think are village... Anyways, once I get back from church, I'll try to do a full analysis on that group of players I mentioned as suspicious. Shouldn't take too long. >> Edit: Oh, and regardless of which role I am, I'd appreciate some protection this Cycle, if I can get it. Because if I'm an Elsecaller, my extra life is gone, and if I'm a Lightweaver, I can't protect myself this Cycle.

That's too bad. Well, one thing I'm taking from last Cycle is a stronger village read on Elith. Really, the only thing I thought was suspicious about him was the stuff about Orlok, and I think that's much clearer now. Ouch. I got attacked. Guess I'm cleared now, huh? Currently, I think Elith, Orlok(paranoid though), Sart, Bard, Arraenae, Winter, and DA are villagers. Those aren't strong reads, but oh well. I'm still leaning slightly village for Stink as well. My elim reads are more just a group that I'd like to focus on: Eternum, Jebus, Elenion, Roadwalker, Jondesu, Sami, Ecthelion, Yitzi, and Arinian. I feel like most of the eliminators are probably in this group. They haven't posted a lot, or done anything that would really draw attention to themselves. What does everyone else think about this group? I'd like to see as many opinions as possible, since we really really need to get an eliminator this Cycle.

That all sounds fairly reasonable to me, actually. At this point, I'm content to let PK be lynched. There's not really a much better option that I can see, and only 10 minutes left. Elith

Well, okay then. Arinian, Elith.

I've actually got more of a village read on Winter. I know she's said some strange things, but from what I can remember, I feel like this is more like her village playstyle than her elim play style. I wouldn't mind going Arinian, though. At this point, I think I'm more suspicious of Elith than Arin, but we'd need every vote we can get to change this lynch.

Looks like PK is getting lynched. He's got like, 5 votes on him at this point? I guess I could add my vote, since I have stated suspicion of him before, but I'm not sure if it'd do any good. Plus, I don't really like how this lynch wagon formed. Feels like a mislynch to me. Does anyone have a better prospect at this point? We've still got 45 minutes, which is probably enough time to swing it somewhere else. Or maybe PK is an eliminator and I should just chill.

Well then. I read this post strongly village. It just feels honest somehow. I don't know if I agree with everything in the post, but it's made me change my mind. At least for now. One last thing though Sart - who would you suggest we lynch at this point? I'm kinda out of lynch-able suspects right now. . .

I'd be more inclined to agree if he hadn't posted that 30 minutes before Stick was lynched, and I don't recall him ever saying he'd had a village read on Stick. So it was an out of the blue defense of Stick right before she's lynched with no previous defense of her, and condemning another player based on Stick being village. To be fair, you might have posted all of that about the Truthless without consulting any teammates. But anyways, don't be so harsh on yourself! So far my top 2 suspicions have been villagers, so you can't get much worse than that. At this point, my top suspect is Sart, for his post at the end of last Cycle. After him, I'm not really sure, tbh. I really need to go over the player list player by player and try and get better information from players. I also should review everyone as well...but later. Kinda busy atm, and won't be around for a few hours. After that, we'll see. I didn't sleep much last night, so I'm not sure how well I'll be able to function this cycle. >_>

I don't understand this post. He's voted Stick twice, sure, but he hasn't really been all that aggressive about it. And what makes you think Stick is village? I can't help but feel like you know Stick will flip village and you're trying to make Arinian look bad. That, and what does "he has been throwing a lot of suspicion around" mean exactly? It's a villager's mission to accuse players to ferret out the eliminators, so I don't see how that's a bad thing? Thanks for this. I'm hoping you're not village, but regardless of alignment, I always like to see these.

Yeah, Elithanathile, I don't think that the length of Stink's posts is really alignment indicative. I've played quite a lot of games with him, and I don't know of any obvious tells he has as an elim. I feel like he posts what he wants, and reading too much into it is likely to end with a mislynch more often than not. Whoever is online and reads this: Who would you lynch between Stick, Mage, or PK? I put Mage in there because it's possible I'll switch to him from Stick, and right now Stick and PK both have the most votes with 2 which is the reason for them being there.

Orlok, I mentioned at the start of this Cycle that I fell asleep before I got a chance to vote. I would have voted at the time of the post you quoted, but I wanted to see who other players would choose first. I'd already stated willingness to lynch either, so I was trying to get more players to place a vote that would actually be a serious vote. I would have gone through with voting Flash since I was already leaning that way, if that means anything to you.

Alrighty then. Mage Stick @_Stick_, just so you know you're currently up for the lynch.

Vote tally: Sami(1): PK Orlok(1): Eleth Eleth(1): Orlok PK(1): Jondesu Mage(1): Lopen That's all of them I think. Pretty pathetic, tbh. I'll likely vote PK or Sami if no one joins me on Mage or Stick(speaking of @Arraenae, are you gonna vote on Stick after that analysis of her posts? Looked to me like you read her as suspicious). I just need to review both of them before I decide, since PK is voting Sami. Leaning PK I think. The fact that he's placed 2 early votes(1 a poke vote that he kept all Cycle) and hasn't really participated in voting after that makes me wonder about him. I've gotten village vibes from Orlok and Eleth. Not strong ones really, but I don't think I'd want to lynch either of them. I would like to hear back from Eleth about that PM regarding Orlok though.

This post reads suspicious to me. Mage. The phrases I bolded in particular. He's going back and forth a lot, like he doesn't want to have a stance that could hurt him. It's like, he's not really saying anything here. Maybe he just hasn't had the time to form a lot of opinions, but I don't like the phrasing or the content. I'm still a bit suspicious of Stick as well. Haven't seen much from her that makes me think village, but she's posted a fair amount, so it seems weird to me. I was starting to get suspicious of Ecth because of all of that mess, but now that everything is clearer, he's back to neutral. Though, the way he picked up votes on D1 kind of makes me lean village.

And also who sent you the PM? Edit: ninja'd...but yeah, that's what I'm wondering about too... somehow my post is before Megasif's now @Ecthelion III

Sorry about not voting. I really was going to, but I fell asleep... >> Anyways, I'm disappointed that Flash wasn't evil, but hopefully we can learn something from his lynch. Not sure what to make of Drake being the first kill. Oh, thank you Bard for putting all of that together. I'll have a look at everything tomorrow, after I've slept.

I'm currently leaning Flash over Stick as well, but we'll see. My opinion, and more importantly, my vote, might not make any difference at this point. What exactly did you vote on Flash for?

So, vote tally(probably accurate...): Ecth(6): some people Flash(2): 2 people Stick(2): 2 other people I'd prefer a lynch on Flash or Stick to Ecth. If anyone disagrees with the Ecth lynch and agrees with one of those 2 lynches more than the Ecth one, I'd be happy to add my vote to either of them. Edit: Oh, and reasons? Ecth lynch seems easy, Flash and Stick seem off to me.

Yep. I almost put you as a village lean. But I've never been able to get a trustworthy read on you this early, so I didn't. Edit: No idea about PK or BB...