TheMightyLopen

I could see a few things stopping them from converting her or attacking her so far. For one, she's a Misting out in the open, meaning if they converted her, it's very possible someone would Snap with her same power when they converted her, making it fairly obvious she'd been converted. Add to that that she'd have to somehow keep up the appearance of being able to Soothe, and the risk of converting her gets even higher. As for why she hasn't been attacked yet, I imagine it's because the Spiked are worried she'll be protected. Everyone knows that the Inquisitor wants to kill Mistings to be able to convert more players, and she's publicly known as one. Now, since she's found out at least one Spiked, there's an even higher chance of her being protected. Despite all of that, I do think we should stay watchful of her, considering the amount of influence she has at this point, so it's probably a good idea to bring that up occasionally. Praise the Ja!

I don't see that reasoning being used as evidence to prove you're an elim anywhere, except maybe by HH. The main piece of evidence in my mind is that you were Smoked last Cycle. That, and because most of your reads are "Neutral" when there's only ever been 2 or 3 Spiked compared to over 20 villagers(I know Wilson said this last Night, but we were both talking about this in our PM, so I'm not just copying her words, she was sorta copying mine ). The fact that you wanted Wilson to be Seeked could also be used against you, even if your reasoning for it wasn't bad, because the fact remains that she was village then, meaning you might have seen a chance to ask for a scan to be wasted on a villager without getting yourself any suspicion from it. By itself, I wouldn't say it's enough to warrant a lynch, but combined with the other points against you, well, it doesn't make you look any better at least. I think you're right that the redirected attack isn't alignment indicative, because if you're village, we'll waste this lynch on you, and if you're Spiked, your death is delayed. But I haven't seen anything from you that makes me believe you're village, so you're my best lead by a large margin. Praise the Ja!

Interesting. I didn't think you or Aonar would have left him alone like that. But there wasn't any failed attack, on a thug type role or blocked by a Lurcher. Does this mean the Inquisitor has some sort of redirect power? Maybe Uber-Zinc? Regardless, Rand. Considering it's unlikely the lynch will land on anyone besides Rand, we should still keep discussion going. Like I've asked before, the fact that someone Snapped likely means the converted player was a Misting. The new Misting has around a 78% chance of being the converted players previous role(I think that was the number). Meaning if we could somehow get the Snapped players role, we can investigate the other players with that role. Newly Snapped player, would you mind telling one or 2 players your new role, so we can use this information to help narrow the targets for the new conversion? (Hopefully the new Snapped is active... >.<) Praise the Ja!

Crap. This was always a danger, but from this point on, we're at a severe disadvantage. The Spiked might get 2 kills, and we'll only have the lynch. As such, EVERYBODY NEEDS TO BE ACTIVE IN THE LYNCH. Because we likely don't have another Coinshot, which means no more Night kills for us. Len, as was stated multiple times last Night, Wilson Soothed Randuir, but he was apparently covered by a Smoker. I was hoping he'd be Coinshot, but apparently Aonar decided to go after Araris instead(I'm assuming he didn't kill himself ). As for whether there's a leak or not, I'm not so sure there was. The Inquisitor had Uber-Bronze after all, so they could have just scanned Aonar or figured it out some other indirect way. I would like to hear who knew of Aonar's ability though. Figberts, why exactly are you voting for Kipper? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you're voting, you just don't explain the vote at all. Unless it's just a bandwagon vote, but it's very early to be bandwagoning. What do you think of Randuir? He was Soothed but his vote didn't go away, meaning he was Smoked. I could ask the same of Yitzi actually. There's not much risk in lynching Kipper, since the Inquisitor will almost definitely be going for a Coinshot next, but that's not exactly reason to lynch him. Are you voting on him because he survived the lynch once? If so, what do you think of the reasons Wilson laid out for why she thinks he's not the Inquisitor? And what do you think of Randuir? At this point, we need to be very thorough to catch the Inquisitor and their converts. I don't think we can just let these kind of votes slide. Before I vote, I'd like to hear why Rand wasn't Coinshot. Praise the Ja!

Well, darn. Me and Wilson were discussing Ecth possibly being the Inquisitor, but we were wrong. Sorry about that Ecth(or not, revenge for LG30! jk ). So, Len and Araris' votes were messed with this Cycle. I'm not sure if that really clears them of anything, since we have no idea whether the other convert was successfully turned into another Smoker. I suppose it makes them a little less likely to be the Inquisitor though, since Jon may have been covering the Inquisitor? Not sure. And of course, paranoid theory that Len is the Inquisitor and used his Uber-zinc to move his own vote to himself even though he was Smoked just to prove he wasn't Smoked, this is assuming the Inquisitor can pierce Copperclouds with his manipulation and it doesn't Soothe their vote. (I'm kidding ) Praise the Ja!

I say Yay!

Analysis part 2: 17. Bugsy - First post of interest, Bugsy throws a little suspicion Len's way, but simply asks a question rather than votes on him. He also answered Aman's question about how he thought the Inquisitor would play. I don't really see much in the post that's alignment indicative, though I think his point against Len was fair(not saying I'm back to suspecting Len as the Inquisitor, just at the time it was a reasonable question to ask him). He states he's very busy in real life, so he can't be very active. He posts a response to DA's large analysis post explaining that his logic about Arinian couldn't be true, but that he agreed with DA's points against Drake, and votes on him because of that. Also in that post he asks me to explain my "very Real List" of players I suspected, which was fair, considering I voted on him seemingly because of it(it sorta was, sorta wasn't. I just was wondering what he was thinking since he hadn't posted much, though if I'd gone back over his posts and realized how busy he was, I probably would have voted someone else at that point). His last post was in response to Jondesu voting on him, which was directly after the first conversion. If we knew for sure Jon was the first convert, I'd say this points to Bugsy's innocence, but it's not a sure thing, so I don't think we can really use it as evidence. Like I said in my last post, the last time Bugsy was active was like, 4 or 5 days ago. Which would clear him if there was obvious Inquisitor activity, but as it is, he's still a potential suspect. I don't think it's very likely he's the Inquisitor, and I don't think it's particularly likely he's a convert either, because of the complete inactivity, but I do hope he'll come back and play once he gets some free time.18. Figberts - Not much of interest. Basically purely RP, with a vow to kill the "next person who tries to kill Drought" which resulted in him voting on Hemalurgic Headshot the next Cycle. That is the only time he's voted and he's not voiced any suspicions or posted in the thread for quite a while. If you see this Figberts, could you please add your thoughts about the game and vote somewhere?19. Mark - Urgh, I don't have the energy to go post by post, but I've got a pretty strong village read on Mark, at least from the early Cycles. So, I don't think he's the Inquisitor, though he may have been converted.20. Manukos - Hasn't posted very much(5 or 6 short posts in total), although he has been online pretty much throughout I think. I would very much like to hear from him. His thoughts on the game so far, any suspicions, any players he thinks are cleared right now, etc. His lack of posting seems too dangerous to try as the Inquisitor, but I wouldn't totally discount the possibility. Mostly I'd just like for him to post more often.21. Aonar - Have already gone over him a few times. He's very tough for me to read, is definitely a troll, but Wilson has vouched for him somewhat, so I'm not gonna push for his death or anything. Also, the fact that he was involved with that Hero stuff makes me lean village on him, since he'd be smart enough to realize that attacking Hero right then could lead to extra suspicion on him. So I think he's probably village right now.22. Ecthelion - Nothing much to say about him. He's the second Snapped player apparently, which all but clears him of being the Inquisitor or one of the 2 converts I think. We should keep an eye on him though, given he's a fairly tempting convert choice based on his 'cleared' status right now. I'm leaving my vote on Omegaster until I hear more from him or decide my vote is more helpful somewhere else(unlikely, since I'll probably sleep until rollover! ). Praise the Ja.

Vote tally: Spar(1): Yitzi Kipper(3): Ecthelion, Elenion, Hero Arinian(1): Wilson Omegaster(1): Lopen Hero(1): Kipper No votes(15): @Arinian, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, @Darkness Ascendant, @randuir, @Magestar, @Silverblade5, @Arraenae, Spar, @Araris Valerian, @OmeGaster, Bugsy, @Figberts, Mark, @Manukos, @Aonar Faileas, would you all mind voting? Spar hasn't been online since Day 1. Bugsy was last online 4-5 days ago. Mark was last online 2 days ago. I don't have much hope for Spar, but I am hoping Bugsy and Mark will be able to become active again once they're not so busy(I think they've mentioned being really busy lately). I may change my vote once I finish my analysis of the last 6 players I didn't get around to analyzing last night, but I'd still very much like for Omegaster to post actual content and vote for someone. And for the record, I still don't suspect Kipper. Praise the Ja! (for filler posting )

Thanks for the game Aman. It was really amazing. The mechanics were very interesting, and I had a ton of fun trying to work out who had which spren. And of course, those write-ups were extremely impressive, so thank you very much for putting that much effort into the game. I'm looking forward to the sequel! Unjust, well played. I think we'd have caught at least 1 or 2 of you if the village had been a little more active, but a couple of you had managed to work your way into a number of villagers trusts, so definitely a job well done. Kudos especially to Randuir, for it being his first game and doing so well in fooling pretty much everyone.

Fair enough. That makes sense. Especially since I'd probably get annoyed if people accused me of bandwagoning when I wasn't. Fair enough, to both of those last points. To be honest, after getting a good day's sleep, I don't suspect you as much. I was probably being overly paranoid, and this response seems very reasonable to me. I'm not sure if I could see you not killing during the first 2 Nights or whatever it was, killing a first time player, and letting Jon put some extra attention on you by including you in his analysis. ...This is almost exactly what you posted last time. You have nothing else to add? A vote perhaps? Praise the Ja!

Sweet. I was curious about the lack of apparent vote manipulation as well, but I guess there was no reason to worry. Anyways, I haven't really done much in terms of analysis up till now, so I figured it was time to do my part. Whew. It is extremely late and I've been at this for about 4 hours or so, with 6 players left to go. I also would like to go over everything Jondesu has said to combine with this analysis, since looking over who he tried to draw attention to(like me and Aonar ) and who he might have tried to draw attention away from could be very helpful. TL;DR - Village reads, but could be converted, since I've no idea who the other convert could be: Arinian, HH, Randuir, DA, Magestar, Hero, Yitzi(a little paranoid of him), Silverblade, Arraenae, Wilson, Araris, Kipper. Inquisitor reads: Elenion, Omegaster. I've still got these players to analyse: 17. Bugsy - 18. Figberts - 19. Mark - 20. Manukos - 21. Aonar - 22. Ecthelion - Omegaster. Originally was voting for Elenion, but I think I'd rather hear from Omegaster more right now. Praise the Ja.

Well, Kipper hasn't responded, and I've talked to Wilson a bit more about Kipper and Aonar, and she's convinced me to vote Kipper. Meta I don't really have any specific reason to suspect Aonar, since he's been playing pretty much the same as always. I've only personally played a few games with him, but that combined with Wilson's read on him is enough for me to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. The way the votes are stacked now(5 on Aonar, 4 on Kipper), I'm not sure our Soothers/Rioters have great targets to choose from, since they'll be messing with the actual lynch targets, so like Aonar says above, everybody please vote. Doesn't matter who you vote on if it's not one of Kipper or Aonar.

I've been around for what, a week longer than you? Thanks for the nomination though, as well as the compliments. The timing is a little rough, since that's just about when I'll be co-GMing the rerun of LG18, and that is likely going to be a lot of work and very time consuming. I think it would be an interesting experience though, so yeah, I think I could find time to play if I got chosen. I agree with Wilson that you'd be a great pick though, if we're joining in again.

Well, that all seems really odd. Considering Wilson can still Soothe(I think), there's no reason to suspect her right now. On one hand, the attack on Hero does seem to imply someone involved there is Spiked, but on the other hand it seems strange that any one of them would try an attack on him since it sounds like all of that situation was known by multiple players. So attacking Hero would definitely draw attention to them, as it has. Maybe they thought it'd be worth it if he was actually a Seeker though. In which case it's probable that the Spiked is only a convert, since putting yourself in harms way this early in the game is not a smart move for the Inquisitor, even for the death of a Seeker. Considering the lynch is likely going to be between one of Aonar and Kipper, I'll probably vote for one of them. Before I do though, I'd like to hear what Kipper has to say. This just seems very strange to me, so I'd like to wait and think things through and hopefully get more information before I vote. For the Soothing/Rioting plan though, just to make myself available for that, Meta.

In response to Rand from last Day Cycle, I don't expect any sort of predictable behavior from the Inquisitor, so I've no idea if they'll be active during the Night or not. My point with that was I thought Drake would be thinking through things more if he was the Inquisitor, so he'd be less likely to mix up the Day/Night Turns. Jondesu, I'm not the Inquisitor. Whew. That feels good to get off my chest. I think it would be fair to say that I haven't been very helpful lately, so, sorry about that. I'll try and go over things tonight and get an actual post up with suspicions and everything. I don't really have a clue right now. Praise the Ja.

Well it's not like you have a say in the matter. But I agree with Wilson, the fact that you're claiming to have Snapped likely means you're actually a Thug rather than the Inquisitor. Which means you're probably a villager! Just in case though... To everyone - If you Snapped and got a Misting power last Cycle, please tell the thread or someone in a PM.

Inactivity for this Cycle: @Darkness Ascendant - could you explain the meaning for your "Heh. :)" post? @Magestar - has not posted this Cycle. Please don't go inactive. :/ @Silverblade5 - also has not posted. @little wilson surprisingly absent. @OmeGaster - has not posted. The Ja calls upon you. Will you answer? @Bugsy6912 - has not posted. @Figberts - has not posted. @Mark IV - has not posted. The Ja is disappointed...probably? >> @Manukos - has not posted. @Aonar Faileas - has not posted. And that's all of them. Spar and Meta have been pinged already, so I don't think I need to ping them as well. If you're busy, fine, but if you can, a small post is better than nothing. Praise the Ja.

Fair enough. I think I am leaning village for you anyways. I've thought about it, and I'm putting my vote on Rand. He's been one of my top guesses for the Inquisitor for a while, and even if he's not the Inquisitor, he's a good target for conversion IMO. I know I haven't given great reasoning on this, but honestly, it's mostly a feeling I'm getting from his posts. Like he's hiding something. I'll try and go over his posts and put my suspicion of him into a more solid argument later, but no promises. We really need more people to vote and, well, post something. If no one else does it, I'll post a list of who hasn't posted or voted this Cycle and ping them in a while.

Analysis of the players who voted on Drake last Cycle. First, Bugsy put his vote on Drake because he agreed with DA's analysis of him. I initially thought this post of Bugsy's sounded sorta villager-y, but looking back at it, I'm not sure what gave me that impression. If he was the Inquisitor, he might have seen a good way to place his vote without too much risk involved if we ended up lynching that player(which we did). Overall, I'm not extremely suspicious of Bugsy, but I do think I'd keep him on the list of potential Inquisitor suspects(not that there's an actual list this time). Second vote is Wilson, who is pretty much cleared of being the Inquisitor and the first convert(not quite, but it's very likely she's village unless she was the second convert), so I see no reason to analyse her. Third vote is Hero, basing his vote entirely on Wilson's reasoning. Which I suppose is fair, considering there weren't any other targets up for the lynch and she'd given a good explanation for her vote. All things considered, I don't think Hero is the Inquisitor, but he could be a convert. Like I mentioned earlier, if the first convert is a Smoker, they may have wanted to make their vote count so it wouldn't be likely that a Soother or Rioter would try to move their vote. Fourth vote is Randuir. A couple things about Randuir's accusations against Drake seem a little strange to me. For one, Drake voted during the Night, which to me, really doesn't seem like something the Inquisitor would do, since they'll be focused on killing/converting during the Night. I would think that would be somewhat telling that Drake was a villager, but no one else seemed to think of that either, so I guess I shouldn't think too much of it. Next is when Randuir pointed out Drake was defending himself pretty strongly from the questions about whether he was a Rioter or not. If someone said they thought I was a specific Misting, I'm pretty sure I'd deny it as much as I could and try to prove them wrong if they were wrong, since admitting you're a Misting in the thread will very likely end with your death. Even if you are proven to be a villager because of your role, it's not much good if you die soon after. So I don't know what Rand thought was suspicious about this. That's pretty much all I can analyse of him for now. Fifth vote is Rae, voting on Drake for his N1 posts. All I have to say about this is that I don't think the Inquisitor will play like a normal elim, so saying his posts were "elim-like" doesn't mean much to me. Sixth vote is DA, but he'd already given his reasoning for suspecting Drake, and I don't have much to say about it, since I thought it was valid reason for him to vote. And finally, Len voted on Drake as the seventh vote. His post voting on Drake actually seems a bit suspicious to me, but I can't really say why. I don't think he's the Inquisitor, but it's possible he was the first convert. I think the most suspicious votes were Hero, Rand, Rae, and Len. They're all active players and are expected to vote most of the time, so if they were converted into a Smoker, adding their vote here would be a smart move. Once I get back from church, I'll decide who I want to vote on(it probably won't be Len, since I'm less suspicious of him than the others). Praise the Ja.

I was not able to get around to my analysis of the voters. Hopefully, I'll get that done tomorrow at a reasonable time. Sorry. >.> I'd rather we didn't lynch an inactive though. I also don't really agree with the suspicion on HH either. Sadly, I have no better alternative at the moment. I am still considering Randuir as a suspect for the Inquisitor, but I honestly can't tell if I'm just being too paranoid of him. So I'm hesitant to push for his lynch, both because I might be unfairly suspicious of him and because he has been a very active player, and we need as many of those as possible. Especially since it feels like we're hitting a bit of a lull in discussion right now.

Okay, so another quiet player(and another Regular) was killed. I'm guessing it was the Spiked kill, since I don't think there's any reason they wouldn't kill. Anyways, because the Inquisitor gave up Uber Copper, I feel like that implies the first convert was successfully made into a Smoker, since it would be a bit of a risk to give up your protection from Seekers if you don't have a backup. And since it's now possible the Spiked have 2 Smokers, anyone who's Smoked is an instant suspect. I'd like to ask that as many players as possible vote somewhere, even if it's not going to make a difference in the end. That way, our Soothers and Rioters will be able to have a wide range of targets to use their powers on and try and find the Smokers. One thing I thought of last Cycle is that if the first convert was successfully Spiked into a Smoker, they may have added their vote to Drake so Soothers/Rioters wouldn't want to mess with their vote, since it actually made a difference. That's only if they felt they needed to vote in order to stay unsuspicious, so it may not be the case, but I thought I'd mention it and get some more opinions on this. These are the players who kept their votes on Drake: Bugsy, Hero, Rae, Randuir, DA, and Elenion. I have yet to go over their posts about Drake with all of this in mind, but expect my analysis of that later tonight. Praise the Ja!

Yup, she did tell me that. I find it very funny that we've only lynched Regulars so far. At least we're not giving the Inquisitor very many options. XD

Well. I've got to have some reason to put down a vote, don't I? Even though I doubt my gut is gonna single out the Inquisitor this early, there's not much else to rely on at this point. Once more stuff has happened, I should say more interesting stuff. I know I wasn't much help this Day Turn, but I was much busier than normal. Relevant vote tally: Drake(6): Bugsy, Hero, Randuir, Rae, DA, Elenion Araris(4): Wilson, Arinian, HH, Drake

Just a couple quick comments, because I am very tired. I didn't sleep much last night, so I'm not feeling up to a big post and haven't read all of the posts completely, but there were a few things I wanted to respond to. 1. I have no idea what to think about Drake. Aman sort of made me lean village on him after I voted on him D1, so I was leaning that way. Now, well, I need to read over the posts about him and from him much more thoroughly before I'd come to a conclusion I'd be willing to post, which I honestly doubt I'll do before this Cycle ends. 2. Elenion, it doesn't seem wise to put your Tineye decoding stuff in the thread. I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish. Getting the Tineye killed? Because they're almost definitely a villager, so there's no reason to reveal their identity. 3. Excellent analysis post DA! I'm sure that took a lot of effort, so yes, it is very much appreciated. 4. Bugsy, here's the Totally Real List: Jondesu, Randuir, Magestar, Meta, Silverblade, Ornstein, Omegaster(though I kind of doubt it now that he's dropping out for a bit), Manukos, and Aonar. You were on there, but your response was enough for me to cross you off the list for now(like I said, I'm being very generous marking off possible suspects for the Inquisitor). Wilson says she doesn't think Aonar is the Inquisitor, which definitely holds some weight in my mind, simply because I've got no clue about him. Anyways, I'd probably heavily revise that list at this point, so I don't think it's worth much, but you asked. 5. Wilson did indeed claim Soother to me. Which was cool since she'd never claimed to me before, but then she ruined it by revealing it in the thread. >> Regardless, she should be able to prove her role this Cycle if she wasn't converted. 6. I think that's it actually. 7. I can't stop numbering... 8. Praise the Ja.

I disagree. The Inquisitor needs more Mistings to die so he can convert again. Also, killing Dalinar doesn't really give us any information, which is reason enough to kill him. Contrary to that, the Coinshot has reason to hold back, since there was only the Inquisitor and maybe a convert. And Dalinar wasn't inactive. He just posted yesterday. Seeing as you agree with halting the Contribution Crusade this Cycle, any suspects on your mind? Great! Glad to hear it. I'm planning on being very annoying about prodding players to vote. In my opinion, it just makes things much more interesting when there's a bunch of votes. I wholeheartedly agree. Getting to know the players helps a lot most of the time. And I'm off for the night! I won't be around again until late tomorrow night, so I'll be back then to pressure people into voting. And in case anyone is suspicious of my sudden activity right after a conversion, I guess I just didn't have much reason to say a lot before, and I wanted to try and get this Day off to a fast start. Praise the Ja!