TheMightyLopen

Numbered to respond easier. 1. Wasn't trying to misconstrue your points. I just thought there were a few things that people could comment on if they didn't feel like discussing the Dalinar situation and you seemed to say there wasn't. That was what I was trying to say. It's helpful when other people respond to analyses and whether or not they agree with someone about whoever. I do get your point about that though. 2. Well if he's Spiked, that's a Spiked Mistborn down, which is something. And even if there are some soft-clears on a Spiked, that's not really something that would negate the actual leads we can get. 3. I was thinking the Rioter was Spiked because they could have voiced their concerns using their own vote, but they chose to both use their power instead of their in thread vote and they didn't even tell Dalinar or anyone about it. 4. Role distribution. Not really much to say, since it's hard to guess something like that. There's only been 1 Night with PM's, so it seems like maybe 3 or 4 Mistborn would be the most there is, just based on percentages(I didn't actually do the percentages, that's just an estimation on my part), but even percentages aren't always reliable. How would that affect our strategy? I'm not really sure, except I'd probably advise Mistborns who draw Bronze to scan someone they're relatively confident they'll get a result from. To answer Jondesu, yes, I did claim Lurcher to Rae(last time I'm claiming to you ). Might as well admit that I've claimed Smoker and Soother already as well. I don't really feel like revealing my actual role though, sorry. I guess I can reveal that I'm not a Mistborn. Kind of bandwagony? It basically was a bandwagon vote, which I fully admitted. Again, why is bandwagoning suspicious in this case? I agreed with your analysis and added my vote to yours. It was D1, that was the best lynch target I saw at that point. I don't see how the fact that I claimed Lurcher the Day before a (probably) Spiked Lurcher protected Dalinar makes me suspicious. Wouldn't that do the opposite? If I'd claimed Lurcher in PM's(claimed that to 3 people I think), why would my team tell me to protect Dalinar when it would be viewed as a suspicious protect? People really don't like that theory. >> If you're going to pick on my wording, I'll go ahead and note that Dalinar will actually die this time, so it's not exactly wasting the lynch like D2. I did explain the grammar "slip" earlier. I mean, it's up to you to believe me or not, but I figured I should point that out since neither you nor Rae mentioned it. That last part doesn't make much sense. If I'm not the Spiked Lurcher, then you can probe the Spiked defenses? How are you going to do that? And if I'm not the Spiked Lurcher(I'm not ), why would you even need to get confirmation that they've still got a Lurcher? You obviously wouldn't have killed them... That's why? So you don't think anyone was going to bring up that Wilson being attacked and saved could have been a WGG? Normally I'd understand your point, but it was Wilson, so I knew it was going to be mentioned and I also didn't think we had any evidence to say one way or the other. How is that me wanting people to suspect her? I don't think pulling an Attack/Save on Wilson would get her lynched. She's respected enough that there'd have to be a lot more proof than that. One more thing, you said you think Dalinar is the Spiked Mistborn. I've been doing my best to get him killed and I'm part of the reason he was almost lynched D1. So that means you think I basically bussed my Mistborn teammate on D1 then? Wilson, I was wondering if you could put a vote on someone. Doesn't matter who, I just wanted to test something. You mentioned that the Spiked Smoked you all of the first AG so that you wouldn't ever be cleared. I was thinking we might be able to get some more info on the Spiked role distribution if we had any Soothers or Rioters try and move your vote. I'll go ahead and say that even if Wilson is Smoked, I don't think that would say either way about her alignment just to stop that line of thought right now. I don't think the village vote manipulators have any reason to get involved with the lynch right now either. If anyone thinks this is a bad idea, go ahead and explain why you think so.

Which I agree with, hence the vote on Wonko and me posting that big post with my reads in it to begin the Day. How about the kills on Jondesu and Kipper? Did Kipper have any PM's with anyone? I didn't have a PM with him, so I came up with my earlier theory for his death. I've no theories about the attack on Jondesu, since it seems unlikely he'd have been attacked for something he said in a PM because he would have revealed that straightaway and I haven't gone over his previous posts to see if he could have been attacked for something in those.

Hey, I wouldn't mind getting my Odium back. Joe and Alv already have their own version, so I think it's only fair I'd get mine. Only if you don't want it though Stick.

I disagree with most of that, tbh. Earlier you say you don't want to be lumped in with people who you don't think you should be connected to and then you lump everyone into a category of "focusing on Dalinar." Me, Mage, and Doc have all given some in depth player analysis, and while there's not a lot, there are a few votes on players other than Dalinar that you could discuss. Here's the votes right now: Dalinar(8): Hero, Nyali, Assassin, Len, Mage, Conquestor, Dalinar, Drake Hero(1): Jondesu Wonko(2): Mad, Lopen HH(2): Doc, Wyrm(I think... ) Bugsy(1): Rae Rae(1): Araris Next problem I've got with what you're saying is that you say that Dalinar is probably a villager, when he's lynched he'll be shown as village, and later say you really don't think he's Spiked. What makes you so confident that Dalinar is village? I think it's possible he was framed, but I think it's much more likely he's Spiked, so I'm curious why you think it's more likely he's village. I guess that would just make you focus on Dalinar though, so maybe you don't want to go into that? Though if you gave good reasoning for why Dalinar is likely village, then we might end up lynching someone else. It also annoys me that you say "you're all tunneling and it's pointless." How is it pointless?! I just gave my reads on people and like, half of them are dependent on Dalinar being Spiked, because he's been the center of everything that's happened so far. If Dalinar doesn't die, then what? I just scrap my reads based off of his alignment and go from there? I'll admit, if Dalinar is village, I'll have to go over things a good deal to fix my reads and I don't think we can get too many leads from that, but I can't just change my mind about his alignment for no reason. His lynch had a reason D2. The lynch on him D1 wasn't that strong. I would love it if we could let the Coinshot kill him, but given I heavily suspect he's Spiked, and a Mistborn at that, I doubt he'd ever be unprotected. The only way I see us not lynching Dalinar is if someone can come up with convincing arguments/proof that he's village or if we get a better case for someone besides him, neither of which you have provided. Not saying it's only your responsibility, but it's frustrating for me as a player to be told what I'm doing is useless and pointless without the player saying it explaining what they think we should do besides a general "lynch someone else." The same goes for Stink I might add. If you don't like the Dalinar lynch, argue your opinion, don't just act like everyone else is wasting the lynch.

I don't know, but it seems pretty certain that it would have been within the last 45 minutes to an hour, because of how the votes were. At least, that's how I was looking at it. I don't think they would have planned for Dalinar to go for Hemalurgic first then back off and go for Ecthelion like he did. Just doesn't make sense to me. And that was all in the last hour. I am very annoyed that we have to spend another lynch on Dalinar, but I do think it would be best, especially since a bunch of my analysis depends on his alignment(plus what Nyali said, that he could be the Spiked Mistborn, or a Spiked Mistborn I guess I should say, which is an important role to take away from the Spiked). I think I'll throw my vote on Wonko as well. I went through his posts, and while he did say that he might only have minimal activity in this game, he hasn't posted since D1 when he voted and then retracted on Hemalurgic. I know he's been around since then at least a couple times(I've been watching online times pretty closely this game) but he has yet to post again.

Excellent write-up Meta. Okay, well, here's an attempt to go over the basic things that have happened. Hopefully this will help any inactives catch up and allow everyone a clear view of how we stand right now. First things first, here's how the Spiked kills have gone: Wilson(protected by an unknown Lurcher, who never claimed to Wilson I don't think), Kipper(dead), Jondesu(Thug, I'm guessing?). Next are the lynches. Day 1 there were a bunch of last minute shenanigans that involved Dalinar, Hemalurgic, and Ecthelion. At first, Hemalurgic was up for the lynch, then Dalinar was, then the lynch was tied up between Dalinar and Ecthelion. Sadly for Ecthelion, a Rioter got involved and Rioted a vote off of Dalinar and onto Ecthelion, ending with Ecth's lynch. I checked the online times of the no-voters to see if I could narrow down who was around when all of the voting craziness happened(about, the last hour of the lynch or so) and I my top suspects based on that are Nyali, Wonko, Hero, and Joe(with Wonko as my biggest suspect probably, because he was last online just a few minutes after the votes switched to Ecthelion and then he went offline I believe, which means he may not have been around to cancel his Rioting order once the tie was in place). Anyways, the last lynch was on Dalinar but he's apparently a Mistborn and got lucky by drawing pewter. So the lynch was wasted. Coinshot kills(I guess the same one?): N0 there were no Coinshot attacks, Dalinar(protected by unknown, probably Spiked Lurcher), Straw(dead village Rioter). Here's my village reads, with reasoning: Elenion - He was the 3rd vote on Dalinar on D1, which really helped Dalinar become a prominent lynch target. If Dalinar is a Spiked Mistborn, I'd consider him soft-cleared. His vote was a typical bandwagon vote pretty much. Doc - Like Elenion, he voted on Dalinar, but his vote was the 4th one. If Dalinar is a Spiked Mistborn, I think I'd consider him soft-cleared as well. I just don't see the Spiked bussing a Mistborn like that when there wasn't even that much evidence against him. I suppose Doc or Elenion could be Spiked who just figured they'd use their Rioter to save him if necessary, but I think they'd know that if that happened, he'd just get that much more suspicion. Arinian - This one is almost purely gut/tone read. I think his posts accusing Nyali and his post responding to something Joe said sounded village. That's about all the reasoning I got. Stick - I also got a village gut/tone read on her posts D1 as well. I pointed out before that it's likely the Lurcher who protected Dalinar was Spiked, so if that's the only Lurcher the Spiked have got, the fact that Stick wasn't protected instead of Dalinar when Drake asked for Stick to be Coinshot could point to her innocence. That's kind of weak evidence though, so I'm not very trusting of her. Arraenae - She was the first vote on Dalinar. Maybe she thought a single vote on Dalinar wouldn't hurt, but that would still be a risky play as a Spiked. Like Len and Doc, this read relies somewhat on the fact that I think Dalinar is a Spiked Mistborn. I was also reading her as village even before all this mess with Dalinar happened though, so it's not entirely based off of that. Jondesu - Claimed Thug, write-up basically confirms. He was attacked by the Spiked. WGG is always a possibility, but that would have just wasted both his extra life and one of the Spiked kills(and their first one was already blocked, so it doesn't seem like that would be a good idea). Madagascar - If Dalinar is Spiked, I don't think Madagascar would be mostly because of her last minute vote to tie the lynch between Dalinar and Ecthelion. If she was Spiked with Dalinar, she'd have known that her vote wasn't needed and it would be pointless to make such a big deal about tying the vote and stuff. That's my thinking anyways. On the first Cycle, I PM'd Arraenae with my reads and I also put Ecthelion and Wyrm on there. Ecth is dead and Wyrm, eh, I can't really tell. It was a weak read to begin with. Spiked reads: Dalinar - A Rioter(likely Spiked) saved him from the D1 lynch. A Lurcher(also likely Spiked) protected him from a Coinshot N1. He's claimed Mistborn and sorta proven it. Drake - I've got a bad gut/tone read from him. That's about it. Bugsy - Bad gut/tone read. Pretty weak though. Wonko - For reasons I posted above, I suspect he may be the Spiked Rioter. I also don't remember him posting very much, but I feel like he may have explained that. Also in my PM with Rae, I put my Spiked reads. I think I had Nyali and Wilson in there, but I don't suspect them as much right now I don't think. I do still have a bit of suspicion of Nyali due to Dalinar saying he didn't agree with lynching Nyali on D1 but that she was a little suspicious and because she's one of the people who might be the Spiked Rioter(but I think she was active right at rollover, so in her case, I think she probably would have seen the tie and removed the Rioting action). Wilson was basically all paranoia because of the attack on her and her vote on Stick(who I'm reading as village). As Sothe woke up, he could tell he was in for a terrible day. His legs were extremely sore from chasing Reginald all of yesterday and after he'd finally given them the slip, Sothe had realized that he'd stuck all of his gold in his bad pocket. So on the merry chase, he'd strewn all of his hard earned coins all across the village. Rotten luck that, he thought. He had been forced to return to that manor with the Terrisman fellow. It wasn't a bad way to spend a night, the beds were quite comfortable, but when someone is murdered in their sleep just a few rooms down from you the night before, it's not the most inviting place to go to sleep. He forced himself out of bed and looked out his window. He sighed mentally. "Ah well, I suppose I'll get some of that free food the Terrisman's got, then wander the village and gather my gold," he said aloud. Maybe I shouldn't talk so loud, he thought. You could never be sure who might be listening, especially in a strangers house.

I feel like I've contributed more original thought than most players...such as pointing out the vote manipulation on D1, and narrowing down who it likely was. I've also responded to(I think) each and every question directed at me to try and explain anything somebody was curious about. I've been the 2nd vote twice, sure, and maybe I didn't add a whole lot of reasoning for those votes besides what the first voter said(I thought Rae's points against Dalinar were good ones and didn't feel like there was much to add and with my vote on Nyali, there wasn't much to begin with), but given no one has died except to the eliminator kill(and the one theory I came up with for that, you didn't like for some reason ), there's not very many leads to begin with. Well, this isn't exactly what you're asking about, but it could at least tell us if those people were Smoked or not. So that's something. The crime in this little village is just so terrible. >> Makes it hard to steal an honest day's pay. Just erased a bunch of stuff that I wasn't responding to cause this post is already too long and I haven't even said very much. I've responded to a few of Dalinar's posts(granted, he's tried multiple times to poke holes in my infallible logic, so I did feel the need to respond) and I even mentioned that he could have revealed having pewter earlier in the Cycle. "Ridiculous paranoid theories." Is it that paranoid?! Aaaand you're suspicious of me too. Wow. Just curious, but if Dalinar does turn out to be a Spiked Mistborn, what would that do to your opinion of me(a question I might ask to any of the people who've voiced suspicion of me in this game)? I was the 2nd vote on him, which helped focus discussion on him(not sure if Elenion would have added his vote without mine and if Elenion hadn't, Doc might not have either) and he's been pretty insistent on attacking me. Just saying, a lot of people have voiced suspicion of me(though after I've responded to all of it, they haven't responded back so maybe I convinced them otherwise?) and I'd be really upset if a Coinshot killed me because Dalinar isn't dead yet so I don't have that as some sort of proof of innocence. How can you be suspicious of me if you think Dalinar is a Spiked Mistborn(which you seem to think)? That's kind of like saying Meta was suspicious even after helping focus the discussion and the lynch on the Forsaken on Day 1 in LG24. I think you'd say that that was one of my "ridiculous paranoid theories" wouldn't you? Mistborn isn't as powerful, granted, but I still think my point stands. And yes, I get that me saying that I'm soft cleared if Dalinar is a Spiked Mistborn is a bit of an IKYK, but I don't really care. This might seem overly defensive, but after Wilson, Arraenae, Gamma, Elenion(said something about killing me at least), Elbereth, Magestar, and Dalinar(although I don't think many people are gonna take his opinion very seriously unless he dies and turns out to be village) voice suspicion of me for various reasons and people say that we shouldn't specifically mention people for the Coinshot to attack, I think you can see why I'd be worried and a little upset.

Gamma said that about a revealed mistborn not being as useful. Not me. My point was that I think there's a higher chance the Spiked would reveal what they did if you're Spiked. Just my opinion, but I don't think in a game with 34 players, the Spiked would want to reveal very much about their role distribution this early just for a mislynch/no lynch or 2. Generally the early lynches are mislynches anyways. If they'd allowed his pewter to take the hit, he'd have died to this lynch. As it is, discussion is focused on him for another Day, possibly this upcoming Night, and if they protect him again, we may have to end up lynching him once again. Assuming he's telling the truth about drawing pewter(which I hope he's not, but knowing my luck, he's telling the truth ).

Whether you revealed or not, I think that if you are really a Mistborn(which I'm inclined to believe), that fact would explain why the Spiked have done as much as they have to keep you alive(assuming the Rioter and Lurcher are Spiked >>). Many times, eliminators that are under heavy suspicion are cut off from the help of their teammates so they don't drag anyone else down when they die or reveal information about their team. In this case, we got some knowledge about the Spiked role distribution(Rioter, Lurcher, and if you turn out to be Spiked telling the truth about your role, they got a Mistborn as well, which would heavily point to the Coinshot who attacked you to be village, IMO), as well as narrowing down a little who the Spiked Rioter could be(because of the no voters and what little of the online times I was able to note down). The only reason the Spiked would reveal all of that is if they stood to gain something of equal value. So either they thought a wasted Coinshot attack/lynch was worth that info(because in this case they wouldn't have known you had pewter) being revealed, or, the more likely scenario in my mind, the death of one of their own was postponed plus we'd have to waste a Coinshot attack/lynch and now possibly another Coinshot attack/lynch(though it might be better for the Coinshot to go after someone else if you do survive this lynch), plus you might draw Steel this next Night Turn and they'd get an extra kill out of it. Or you could draw Bronze and find out someone's role or something. I do think you could have revealed this much earlier. Then we'd have had more time to decide what we want to do. As it is, discussion has centered around you so we don't really have any great alternative(I'm not terribly suspicious of Hero and I definitely don't think I'm a suitable lynch target ). Anyways, I won't be able to be on much for the rest of this Cycle, so this is probably my last post, though I will probably be around for the last hour or so.

I've put the second vote on 2 players and today I was obviously gonna vote for you. I wouldn't exactly call that bandwagoning, but even if it was bandwagoning, like I've said before, I don't see that as a bad thing in this case. For future reference, Stick is a she. As for you being a Mistborn, that honestly makes me more suspicious because I think it makes that much more sense for the Spiked to reveal what they have to keep you alive. Copper is a Smokers power. Which is the ability to hide your alignment and role from Seekers and stop anyone from manipulating your vote, and also allows you to hide one other player. Vote tally: Dalinar(7): Madagascar, Hero, Lopen, Assassin, Arinian, Bugsy, Seonid, Gamma Hero(3): Wyrm, Stick, Jondesu Joe(2): Stink, Dalinar Stick(1): Elenion Lopen(1): Arraenae Straw(0): Madagascar Seonid(1): Madagascar, Hemalurgic Arraenae(1): Araris Conquestor(1): Madagascar(so many votes ) No votes(15): Joe, Manukos, Nyali, Conquestor, Silverblade, Magestar, Straw, Doc, Drought, Drake, Wilson, Sart, Orlok, Wonko, Elbereth. Bolded are those who didn't end with a vote down last Cycle. That's about half of the players not voting. I don't think it's likely that there'll be vote manipulation due to the large gap, but I think we should still watch the votes carefully.

You have a point there. I guess because last game I was the single Spiked Lurcher that's what I was thinking this time. And it's not very often an eliminator team has more than 1 protect, but this is Meta and we started with a bunch of players, so I don't think it's impossible. It doesn't change my read on Stick, but it's a good point. Another reason I didn't add the disclaimer of "if" the Lurcher who saved Dalinar was Spiked because I thought I'd already posted about how I was assuming the Lurcher who saved Dalinar was Spiked. I made 2 pretty long posts yesterday that I completely scrapped because I didn't like them, and in them I talked about all of that stuff(I didn't like them because I didn't sleep much the night before so it was hard to focus and it felt like I was just babbling ).

Do I really have to put a disclaimer there? I feel like it's a safe assumption to make.

I didn't ask Wyrm to ask you about anything. I did discuss the attack/save on you with him, but the conclusion we agreed on was that we needed more information before we could come up with any conclusions for whether it was a WGG or not, because at that point, it's an endless cycle of IKYK's, which are pointless. As for why I didn't PM you, idk, I guess I figured you wouldn't roleclaim trade with me and I didn't really have any questions for you, plus I have a really difficult time getting a read on you so I thought I'd PM others first. I'm not particularly suspicious of you at this point. I'll admit that I had a bit of a bad read on you D1(which I said to Rae in PM), but I think that was mostly paranoia from the attack on you, plus I've got a village read on Stick(who you voted on D1, but for a fair reason I'll admit). In response to Gamma, Wilson, and Rae about this, yes, it is slightly convoluted. If you didn't know, I come up with a ton of theories similar to that throughout games. I don't usually mention them because even I realize they're convoluted, but I thought this one had more of a chance to be true than most of my theories(not a high chance, but I thought I'd post it to get others' thoughts at least, I'm not looking to get Gamma lynched or vig killed because of this). And since Len just voted on Stick, I'll give my reasoning for my village read on her. 1. Just had a village tone/gut read on her D1 posts. 2. Drake asked a Coinshot to attack her and the Spiked Lurcher protected Dalinar, not Stick. May be a bit tenuous, but that's why I'm leaning village for her right now.

Hehe, it sorta is. I just thought I might as well post it. Going a little further than I did before, my thought is that 1. Why Kipper? He hadn't done much and he just died Cycle 1 of last game. Maybe the elims didn't know that though. But if they did, then there has to be a reason. 2. The reason would have to be good enough that they'd kill him even with his C1 death last game. The only reasons I can think of is if he claimed a really good role in PM's(Mistborn/Seeker/Coinshot would be the priority targets, IMO, unless they can get confirmation that a Lurcher isn't protecting themselves and if they got that kind of information it'd be risky to act on it) or they guessed he had a really good role. He didn't say much, and the vote on Gamma seemed really out of place(even to me, which is why I asked him about it, but he never responded). The only reason they'd guess he was a Seeker was if Gamma was Spiked, because why would a Seeker vote on the villager that they scanned?

Okay, well, Dalinar then. Hero, he seemed to basically claim that he wasn't a Lurcher himself with his earlier post about "A Coinshot will probably attack me and then the eliminators might protect me(if they have a Lurcher)." It seemed that way to me at least. Kipper just died in the first Cycle last game... Possible reason why he was killed: Kipper voted on Gamma Fiend with absolutely no reasoning. If Gamma is Spiked, it could be that they thought Kip was voting on him because he was a Seeker that had scanned him and didn't want his scan to go to the grave with him, so he left an unexplained vote on the Spiked he scanned(in this case, Gamma). The Spiked might have taken the risk and sacrificed Gamma for a village Seeker, and if Kip wasn't a Seeker, the kill might not get questioned. That was the first theory that came to mind at least.

So, Odium killed the only 17th Sharder and the 17th Shard ended up with 4 Shards. But Odium is totally a danger to the village. Right. Thanks for the game Seonid and El. I know this one has a ton of moving parts and I'm sure it was a lot of work to both put it together and run it.

"Niiiice kitty. Please don't take my ears." >.< Uh, I didn't check Hemalurgic's no. I kind of forgot about him, since I was assuming it was a non voter. I'm always on board with a night vote. Even if there's no Coinshots or if there are, they don't listen to us, it can help us get some extra discussion at least. Obviously, I'm putting my vote on Dalinar. I actually thought of that fact a little after I'd posted, but I was too tired to do another post at the time. I checked all of the non voters online times first for if they were online after Doc voted(because his was the vote that was moved), but they were all online after that(since it was almost 15 hours before rollover), so we couldn't learn anything from that. I did however note a few of the players times down, so, here are those: Bugsy was last online during the Day about 5 hours before rollover, so it's very unlikely it was him. Orlok was last online during the Day about 6 hours before rollover, so it wasn't him either(probably). And it appears those are the only non voters times I actually noted down, unfortunately. :/ I don't think Magestar or Drought were online very close to rollover, but I can't say for certain. Here's the list of non-voters again with all of that in mind: Assassin, Joe, Manukos, Nyali, Hero, Silverblade, Magestar, Drought, Lopen, Wonko. Bugsy and Orlok also didn't vote, but if you believe me about their online times, they're likely not the Rioter. Dalinar, if you are protected, that will still give us information(could help tell us whether the attack on Wilson was a WGG or not as an example). There's always the danger of the village going on a mislynch streak. We've got to kill somebody. With the apparent lack of Tineyes, I'd guess that there is a village Seeker, but we can't rely on that assumption or even solely on a Seeker(what if they die early?). Also, asking for Madagascar to save you would be a smart move as a Spiked, not stupid. If you'd just laid down and "let" yourself be lynched only to be saved by vote manipulation, it would be obvious that you knew you weren't in danger. Right now, my current theory is that the Rioter wasn't online within the last 5 minutes, because that's when Madagascar tied the votes. OR, with the news that somehow Ecthelion's death implicates Stick, the Spiked were okay with using vote manipulation to lynch Ecth(claimed a powerful role to Stick maybe? @I_am_a_Stick, could you tell us why Ecthelion would suspect you of killing him?) instead of letting the tie stand(in which case I think Dalinar would have a stronger claim for innocence, because the Spiked wouldn't want to draw attention to one of their own by moving the lynch off of him), but I think the former is the more likely scenario. Magestar. What can I say? I'm a magnet for early suspicion it seems. Drake, thank you for revealing the information about Ecth/Stick, but I find it a little disconcerting that you'd immediately ask a Coinshot to kill Stick when we haven't even heard her side of the story. Stink, I agree with you that we shouldn't take D1 lynches too seriously for the most part, because they're usually just a way to get the ball rolling. That's why I was okay with a tie. I told Madagascar I was gonna tie the vote between Hemalurgic and Dalinar in a PM, but she also said she was gonna do it at the same time, so I just let her. But there wasn't really anything we could have done to save Ecthelion, unless someone wanted to kill Dalinar, because we ended the Day with a tie, which I think everyone was pretty much fine with, except that a Rioter got involved. @A Joe in the Bush, I'm curious why you voted on Dalinar when the votes were already tied between him and Hemalurgic. You later said you didn't have any reason to suspect him.

Okay, finally have the time to type out my thoughts on what just happened. First, we know that a vote was Rioted from Dalinar to Ecthelion. It's also extremely likely that Ecthelion cancelled Hemalurgic's vote, or else Hemalurgic is our anonymous Rioter. So, there's a couple things we can learn from this. 1. The Rioter was almost definitely online when the vote switched from Hemalurgic/Dalinar to Ecthelion/Dalinar. 2. They preferred to use vote manipulation rather than using their actual vote. It'd be one thing if they'd gone to Dalinar in a PM and told him they were gonna do so, so that he could even out the votes with that in mind. But it's clear that isn't what happened, since he apparently asked Madagascar to even out the votes. Or if they wanted to tie it up but they were already voting so they said something in the thread, but that obviously didn't happen. 3. I also looked through all of the other voters and none of the votes were removed, so the Rioter was definitely one of the no-voters. I've gone back through the no-voters online times and here are the players who I'm pretty sure were online during that 30 minute period: Joe(although he initially voted on Dalinar, so I'm inclined to think he isn't the Rioter), Nyali(pretty sure she was online, but not 100% positive because she was online after the Day ended as well, so the timestamp of when she was last on doesn't help much), Herowannabe(same as Nyali I think), Silverblade(same as Nyali and Hero), Lopen(I'm not the Rioter. Not exactly proof, but I did help the lynch on Dalinar, though I eventually removed my vote. >>), and Wonko(he was last online just a few minutes after Dalinar switched his vote to Ecthelion). So my top suspects for the Rioter are Nyali, Hero, Silverblade, and Wonko. I think Nyali would be my first guess, due to me already suspecting her and Dalinar semi-defended her while also saying she was a little suspicious while the others didn't have much, if any, contact with Dalinar(though Wonko voted on Hemalurgic late which broke the tie between him and Dalinar - not sure if that makes me suspect him more or less because I think the Spiked would have been fine with a tie, tbh, assuming all of this was because of Spiked). Whew. Anyways, all of that has me almost positive that Dalinar is Spiked, which is why I'm asking for a Coinshot/Mistborn to attack him tonight.

That would be fine with me. I would suggest a Coinshot/Mistborn attacks Dalinar. He's obviously not the Rioter. More on this later when I've got the time. Yeah, I hadn't thought of that initially, but it seems much more likely that Ecth used his power on Hemalurgic, IMO.

Okay, so, here's what I think the votes looked like before vote manipulation happened. Dalinar(4): Elenion, Arraenae, Ecthelion, Doc, Ecthelion(4): Straw, Hemalurgic, Dalinar, Madagascar Here's the votes after: Dalinar(3): Elenion, Arraenae, Ecthelion (Doc's vote is moved) Ecthelion(4): Straw, Dalinar, Madagascar, Doc(moved here) (Hemalurgic's vote was removed, I'm guessing by Ecthelion) So a Rioter moved Doc's vote. Gimme a minute to look over all of the voters, but I think it must have been one of the non voters, because I didn't notice anyone's vote missing.

Why are you voting for Gamma? Just curious. I think that's me you're talking about. I wanted to comment that you don't have to do more analysis than RP. I was more trying to lay out all of what you'd done than accuse you of that with my post. I might put my vote back on Dalinar if the votes stay like this. Last AG, I was lynched D1 by vote manipulation(admittedly, I was Spiked then, but oh well ). I was also just lynched D1 the last game I played(Unlucky me >>), and vote manipulation had a part in that as well. So I really don't feel like taking any chances.

Ohhh right. I remember that, I'd just forgotten that was with you. That was quite fun, yes. Though it wasn't a regular elimination game like this, so it didn't really help me get a feel for how you'd normally play as a villager.

What do I think life is? It's a series of unfortunate events that's what. I think I understand where you're coming from, sure. This post gave me a lot better vibes than your first post. At least it's changed my opinion of you enough that I'll remove my vote from you. Dalinar. I never said there wasn't multiple ways to play, I just explained my actions and motives for voting the way I have. I also haven't interacted with you in previous games almost at all, at least that I can remember(of course, lately I've been dying within the first few Cycles ).

I mainly pulled my vote off of Nyali because I didn't think it was likely she'd end up being lynched, so I thought my vote on her would be pointless. I do agree with you that Rae isn't suspicious(at least, to me), but the fact that you defended both Rae and Nyali just made me suspicious. Yeah, I try to help create discussion by actually putting pressure on someone. If I put a single vote on someone while there's like, 10 other players with at least one vote, I'm not really helping all that much. So yes, essentially I am trying to create bandwagons. Or at least make a topic of discussion. Not sure why you'd put yourself up for the lynch by voting on me, especially when there's like, 3 or 4 other players with at least 2 votes, but such is life. >>

Updated vote tally(there's so many! ): Elenion(1): Elbereth Wyrmhero(0): Gamma Conquestor(4): Madagascar, Dalinar, Elenion, Sart Rae(1): Nyali, Mage Stick(1): Wilson Nyali(1): Arinian, Lopen Lopen(1)(*cries): Araris Orlok(1): Wyrmhero Elbereth(2): Jondesu, Ecthelion, Drake Ecthelion(2): Hemalurgic, Straw Hemalurgic(2): Gamma, Seonid Wonko(1): Jondesu Dalinar(2): Arraenae, Lopen Hmm, y'know, I think I agree with you about Dalinar Rae. I forgot to respond to his question about if Nyali was suspicious for voting on Rae, why wasn't Mage, so I will now. I was suspicious of Nyali for her vote on Rae because I felt like she over stated how suspicious Rae's post was. Mage's vote was almost exclusively because of the misunderstanding based on Rae's wording for her advice on Lurchers. So the votes weren't very similar. Anyways, that aside, Dalinar has only posted twice(one was purely RP), and I agree with Rae that he seems non-committal. He semi defended both Rae and Nyali, agreed with suspicion of Elenion but then votes on an inactive, didn't give much of an opinion about the attack on Wilson(which, honestly, I don't have much of an opinion of either, so that point is really weak), and then my last point is that he voted on Conquestor, which is, in my opinion, a really 'safe' place to put your vote.