Stormlight Archive 5 delayed and Hollywood is to blame


Alas. We suspected that this would be the case for some time now, but it has finally be confirmed: Stormlight 5 won't be coming until 2024. Though the reason why certainly isn't quite what we expected...

Brandon Sanderson did a Reddit AMA (ask me anything) with subreddit r/books last week, and u/VeryNiceName16 asked about the plan for the "Stormlight 4.5 novella" (tentatively titled Horneater) amid everything else going on in 2023. Which, if you've give a moment of thought for Brandon's release schedule for 2023, is a darn good question! We've got four Secret Project books, Defiant (Skyward 4), AND supposedly Stormlight Archive 5? Not to mention the Words of Radiance leatherbounds and several other smaller projects that might be coming along. I don't know about you, but I'm already sweating thinking about how much work it will be just to keep up!

Progress on Stormlight 5 has been slow of course, and Brandon finally confirmed what we all expected: the Stormlight 5 release just isn't going to happen in 2023 after all. While some people might be bummed by this, I have to say that I'm honestly a bit relieved. With so much content coming out, I'm more than grateful that we're getting a bit of extra time so that we can properly digest it all.

This delay should come as no surprise. Brandon's fastest turnaround time on a Stormlight book was Rhythm of War, which he started writing in early 2019 and was able to finish by the end of that year. Sanderson's plan was to start Stormlight 5 at the beginning of this year to hit the November 2023 release... Well, we're currently a little over halfway through the year and the first draft status bar is sitting at a mere 7%, with a few more weeks of Secret Project 3 revisions still on his plate first. Keep in mind Brandon will still have to work on revisions for Secret Project 4 and Defiant at some point as well. All of that to say, it would seem that he's roughly 6 months behind schedule as it stands, and that could slip a bit further. Brandon stressed at JordanCon 2021 that he will allow Stormlight 5's schedule to slide back if necessary. It's the "end of a sequence," as he called it, and he needs to make sure that sequence sticks the landing.

b-moey.pngBrandon went a step further though to clarify why Stormlight 5 has been a bit slow-going, and it's not primarily due to the Secret Projects or any other writing projects: it's movie and television stuff.

It was ALSO at JordcanCon 2021 that Sanderson gave one of the biggest teases about about potential adaptations in quite some time: saying that if we "read in between the lines" we might be able to put some things together even though he couldn't announce anything official. In the recent AMA, he opened up a bit more on this saying: "This is the year that Hollywood came calling." With the success lately of various fantasy properties proving that Game of Thrones wasn't a fluke, streaming services, execs, and producers are on the hunt for more. Guess whose name shows up as the top bestselling author with no adaptations made? Brandon Sanderson has been getting a lot of their attention, and the recent Secret Project Kickstarter success only added more fuel to the fire. The result? Lots of phone calls and lots of meetings with several major streaming services and studios. (Netflix was one he named in particular.)

Brandon explained earlier in the AMA that he's doing everything he can to earn a relatively high level of involvement and creative control over any adaptations that come about, and the bargaining power that he seems to hold is sure to be a big help. Apparently Hollywood doesn't know what to do with someone who doesn't need their money?

It's important to stress that we do NOT know the status of any movie or television deals. While it's possible that something in particular is in progress, it's also possible that Sanderson is still working through negotiations to make sure they get the best deal they can. And let's not forget that even from the time of an announcement, it's a long road to seeing an adaptation on our screens.

One thing seems clear however: it's a question of when, not if.

The same is thankfully true of Stormlight Archive novels. While Stormlight 5 is expected to be delayed, we at least know that we can trust Sanderson to get it done as soon as he is able. As for u/VeryNiceName16's question that sparked all this? Brandon did confirm that Horneater is very much on his to-do list after Stormlight 5 is written. So perhaps we'll get a little something extra to tide us over in the months before the next novel? Which I say as if half a dozen other books in 2023 aren't already enough to do that!

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He's like, I can't announce anything yet... I don't have any info for you...

wink wink

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Use the Falchion

Posted

We can't forget the Dark One novelization, Dragonsteel Prime's release for the Leatherbounds, and potentially Lux 2! (Although Steven Bohls did want that to come out in 2022, and we've heard nothing about it even being a thing, so my belief in the project's existence has been slowly declining...) 

In terms of movie stuff, I think Brandon has a pretty good idea of when a movie would come out. In February, Brandon talked about the future naming conventions of Era 3 and beyond in relation to a new Mistborn movie coming out in about 3 years, so I think the process is farther along that we know. (Although I'm still putting my bets on a Dragonsteel 2022 Mistborn movie announcement, with a potential Skyward series announcement before then.)

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Reading between the lines... the WoB mentioned there talks about fantasy TV shows, which is what he's always said he wants to do Stormlight as... so I don't know.

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Jofwu

Posted

14 minutes ago, Use the Falchion said:

In terms of movie stuff, I think Brandon has a pretty good idea of when a movie would come out. In February, Brandon talked about the future naming conventions of Era 3 and beyond in relation to a new Mistborn movie coming out in about 3 years, so I think the process is farther along that we know. (Although I'm still putting my bets on a Dragonsteel 2022 Mistborn movie announcement, with a potential Skyward series announcement before then.)

Harriet announced the Wheel of Time series was in the works a bit too early, which left an awkwardly long period of time where we knew something was happening and knew nothing about it. I'm kind of hoping that Sanderson is that far along (or further) and we don't have to play that game. That when an announcement happens it will have some meat to it, and we're not wondering a year later if there will ever be more news. :D

It does seem like things are further along than the "shopping around" phase. Hopefully we'll find out more by the end of the year.

7 minutes ago, Shallan Stormblessed said:

Reading between the lines... the WoB mentioned there talks about fantasy TV shows, which is what he's always said he wants to do Stormlight as... so I don't know.

I THINK that's only because the previous question (asked by myself actually) inadvertently pulled the conversation towards Stormlight Archive. I had asked about the possibility of a show getting ahead of the books and gave Stormlight as an example. I figured if I used Mistborn as an example he would take the easy way out by pointing at the two finished Eras... In other words, easily dodge the basis of the question instead of confront the possibility I was trying to get at.

Anyways, I gave that Stormlight television show example, so I think when the conversation turned back to film/shows he naturally drifted that way.

Brandon has been pretty adamant about making Mistborn happen first I'd say. DMG (who had all the cosmere rights, and then was left with only Stormlight) kept wanting to push for a Stormlight show and Brandon just didn't think that was the right place to start. In early 2021 he wrote his own Mistborn screenplay, as if to make that point more strongly and get some traction where others were failing. @Use the Falchion points out a case of him offhandedly supposing a Mistborn show, and I'm pretty sure there are other similar cases.

I know he has gone a bit back and forth on what format to do Mistborn in, even with some strange ideas about doing a "move - show - movie" for the first three books. I'm skeptical about such an experimental format, and I've admittedly never understood why he thought that made any sense... :D At the end of the day, I don't think the format is something he would fight very strongly over. It doesn't seem THAT important to his vision. Mistborn could work as a movie or a show. I think if someone is willing to work with him on his other demands, the format (show vs movie) is not something he would consider a deal breaker.

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The beginning of the end.
He won’t become Martin, but he’s not super eager to write more stormlight. 

Stormlight is exhausting work that burns him out, per him and Adam, while 4 unplanned books and scripts, a new challenge for him, are much more fun. The break he takes between 5 and 6 is gonna be double whatever he’s said it will be. 

That’s OK, he doesn’t owe me anything. 

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2 minutes ago, Child of Hodor said:

The beginning of the end.
He won’t become Martin, but he’s not super eager to write more stormlight. 

Stormlight is exhausting work that burns him out, per him and Adam, while 4 unplanned books and scripts, a new challenge for him, are much more fun. The break he takes between 5 and 6 is gonna be double whatever he’s said it will be. 

That’s OK, he doesn’t owe me anything. 

Stormlight books were not supposed to be as long as the first, and yet they keep getting longer than the previous one.

Each one is a huge piece of work. Exhausting, long work.

Add to that the fact that long series by themselves tend to burn authors out. Multiply by the fact that Stormlight books are such bricks of a book.

Good thing Stormlight is divided into two halves. Book 5 will wrap up some plotlines and he can be done with them. And it's maintaining long plot threads and character arcs over the course of many books that is difficult and tedious; it's something you don't have to worry about in standalones and that's why one-shots are more fun to write.

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52 minutes ago, Child of Hodor said:

The beginning of the end.
He won’t become Martin, but he’s not super eager to write more stormlight. 

Stormlight is exhausting work that burns him out, per him and Adam, while 4 unplanned books and scripts, a new challenge for him, are much more fun. The break he takes between 5 and 6 is gonna be double whatever he’s said it will be.

He said the break between 5 and 6 is going to be a decade...

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Frustration

Posted

8 minutes ago, Purple Blorgadet said:

He said the break between 5 and 6 is going to be a decade...

In world there are ten years between them. Not IRL.

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Chaos

Posted

57 minutes ago, Child of Hodor said:

The beginning of the end.
He won’t become Martin, but he’s not super eager to write more stormlight. 

Stormlight is exhausting work that burns him out, per him and Adam, while 4 unplanned books and scripts, a new challenge for him, are much more fun. The break he takes between 5 and 6 is gonna be double whatever he’s said it will be. 

That’s OK, he doesn’t owe me anything. 

I think you're being pretty pessimistic here, unduly so. The cosmere is his primary love, and his primary work. His top priority in his life is to finish the cosmere, and I have no doubt that he is excited to do so. I imagine a huge amount that he is excited about in Stormlight back half and later space age cosmere are so amazing, exciting, and awesome, but he literally could not tell us about it because they are huge spoilers. Stormlight is designed as his truly "big" single series, and I guarantee you, he loves it. 

Please note that after every book, Brandon says, "I am sick of this book and I'm glad to have that over with." Revisions are brutal. These books are massive. But rest assured, he does get pumped for Stormlight drafting. I think you only need to look at the Stormlight 5 prologue to see how excited Brandon is to write a killer conclusion.

But that doesn't mean it isn't a ton of work. It's just so, so much, and the timeline of drafting Stormlight to getting that final draft is actually very fast given how huge it is. It's like eighteen months of straight work. If you spent eighteen months on a single project day-in, day-out, with Brandon's work ethic... yeah. I think you can see why he wants to work on a few other things after he finishes such gargantuan books. He's pumping out nearly a Lord of the Rings sized tome every 3-4 years (yes, really, LotR is 480,000 words long), and doing 5+ drafts of it. I'm sorry, I think it's absolutely insane to imagine that that isn't exhausting work, even if you think this story is the coolest thing ever. Like, if you have a job you like, even love, you can get burnout. Purely on a numerical basis, I think it is completely reasonable for him to be, "wow, that was awesome, but I am so glad to work on something else for a bit." So I think it's really important to keep that perspective. 

I am worried the amount of time he devotes to doing adaptations and potential showrunning. That will take a long time. But Brandon has an entire story to tell in the cosmere, and he is going to make it work. 

Brandon has proven his work ethic. He comes back to every Stormlight book energized and ready to go. I guarantee you, if he wasn't into it, he wouldn't bother pushing the boulder up the mountain at all. He does it because he does love it.

3 minutes ago, Purple Blorgadet said:

He said the break between 5 and 6 is going to be a decade...

I think he said the in-world time between the two is a decade, not that the break between those books would be a decade. 

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Child of Hodor

Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

 

I am worried the amount of time he devotes to doing adaptations and potential showrunning. That will take a long time. But Brandon has an entire story to tell in the cosmere, and he is going to make it work. 

Brandon has proven his work ethic. He comes back to every Stormlight book energized and ready to go. I guarantee you, if he wasn't into it, he wouldn't bother pushing the boulder up the mountain at all. He does it because he does love it.

His work ethic isn't in doubt. He's going to continue to do stuff, no question about that. Will he be writing books, scripts for tv shows, story bibles for videogames? He posted a video where he does an in-depth analysis of that's wrong with the the Bumblebee movie script recently. If he's script doctoring the Bumblebee movie I don't think he'll be hands off on his own adaptations and as the post makes clear he doesn't need the money so he has leverage to get final say.

I've been calling him Brandon "I accidently wrote a book" Sanderson long before the 4 extra books jumped ahead of Stormlight 5 in publication.

https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/98408-enough-with-skyward/?do=findComment&comment=1250911

He's going to keep thinking of other things he'd rather be doing and now it isn't limited to writing other books. But on the subject of books did you catch that he's recently been thinking of doing a big revision of White Sand prose so he can publish it? After doing those graphic novels and an omnibus revision of the graphic novels which were done specifically to free him up from doing a massive revision of the prose? https://wob.coppermind.net/events/486/#e15642

Stormlight 6 release: 2031

 

Edited by Child of Hodor
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Chaos

Posted

I don't understand what you're getting at. You did not address the fact that I think you're taking things too far by thinking that Brandon doesn't enjoy Stormlight. I think that is patently false.

Yes, Brandon has discussed a White Sand prose for a while now actually. 

Regardless, he always has some extra projects rolling around. We will see what come to fruition. 

I don't think a 2031 release for Stormlight 6 is out of the question when you think of the timeline of writing Era 3 back to back and Stormlight production time. That seems pretty reasonable. It was always going to be at least five years of a break. 

The cosmere is tricky. It's always going to be more than just Stormlight, even if it is a big portion of the cosmere. But he has to juggle multiple things, and I think the design was always to give him space to do Era 3 in between Stormlight 5 and 6, and maybe still Elantris sequels (though who knows how important that is now in his plans). 

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4 hours ago, Child of Hodor said:

His work ethic isn't in doubt. He's going to continue to do stuff, no question about that. Will he be writing books, scripts for tv shows, story bibles for videogames? He posted a video where he does an in-depth analysis of that's wrong with the the Bumblebee movie script recently. If he's script doctoring the Bumblebee movie I don't think he'll be hands off on his own adaptations and as the post makes clear he doesn't need the money so he has leverage to get final say.

I've been calling him Brandon "I accidently wrote a book" Sanderson long before the 4 extra books jumped ahead of Stormlight 5 in publication.

https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/98408-enough-with-skyward/?do=findComment&comment=1250911

He's going to keep thinking of other things he'd rather be doing and now it isn't limited to writing other books. But on the subject of books did you catch that he's recently been thinking of doing a big revision of White Sand prose so he can publish it? After doing those graphic novels and an omnibus revision of the graphic novels which were done specifically to free him up from doing a massive revision of the prose? https://wob.coppermind.net/events/486/#e15642

Stormlight 6 release: 2031

 

You're implying that it's not his work ethic that's in doubt, but his focus/interest, which ignores Chaos's point that the cosmere is Brandon's primary love. Finishing this story as a whole - which the Stormlight back 5 is essential for - is his main goal. Saying he's not eager to write more Stormlight seems pretty wild and baseless. 

He has discussed numerous times the amount of books he has left to write in his lifetime to finish and the schedule he needs to adhere to to finish it - and he's not only proven his work ethic, but his time management. If there's an author/creator in the world that's earned the benefit for the doubt from his audience, it's Sando.

This stays true even with Hollywood knocking - we've been expecting adaptations to come into play for a while now so it's not exactly a surprise. I imagine that part of the reason it's been so upsetting for his schedule this last year is cause it's early stages and he hasn't yet figured out how to incorporate this into his routine. I'm sure he will. I don't think he would risk leaving Stormlight/other parts of the cosmere unfinished simply so he could adapt stories he already finished.

Also, Stormlight 6 2031 is not bad at all (too optimistic if you ask me). Book 5 comes out 2024, and in that gap he's writing and releasing the entire Mistborn Era 3 Trilogy, and who knows what else. Doing that, and writing and releasing a Stormlight book in 7 years? That would be Herculean. Feel like we would be getting just a bit spoiled as a fandom if we complained about that.

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Man I just hope SA adaptation is held off for a bit. I'd worry that it would become a GoT situation where studios outpace the source material (although I have like 500% more confidence in Sanderson of making it work). Granted there is a ton already and with the in-world time skip the studio would get a buffer of 10 years of actor aging but you never know what can happen. 

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7 hours ago, Mzuka said:

You're implying that it's not his work ethic that's in doubt, but his focus/interest, which ignores Chaos's point that the cosmere is Brandon's primary love. Finishing this story as a whole - which the Stormlight back 5 is essential for - is his main goal. Saying he's not eager to write more Stormlight seems pretty wild and baseless. 

He has discussed numerous times the amount of books he has left to write in his lifetime to finish and the schedule he needs to adhere to to finish it - and he's not only proven his work ethic, but his time management. If there's an author/creator in the world that's earned the benefit for the doubt from his audience, it's Sando.

This stays true even with Hollywood knocking - we've been expecting adaptations to come into play for a while now so it's not exactly a surprise. I imagine that part of the reason it's been so upsetting for his schedule this last year is cause it's early stages and he hasn't yet figured out how to incorporate this into his routine. I'm sure he will. I don't think he would risk leaving Stormlight/other parts of the cosmere unfinished simply so he could adapt stories he already finished.

Also, Stormlight 6 2031 is not bad at all (too optimistic if you ask me). Book 5 comes out 2024, and in that gap he's writing and releasing the entire Mistborn Era 3 Trilogy, and who knows what else. Doing that, and writing and releasing a Stormlight book in 7 years? That would be Herculean. Feel like we would be getting just a bit spoiled as a fandom if we complained about that.

11 hours ago, Chaos said:

I don't understand what you're getting at. You did not address the fact that I think you're taking things too far by thinking that Brandon doesn't enjoy Stormlight. I think that is patently false.

Yes, Brandon has discussed a White Sand prose for a while now actually. 

Regardless, he always has some extra projects rolling around. We will see what come to fruition. 

I don't think a 2031 release for Stormlight 6 is out of the question when you think of the timeline of writing Era 3 back to back and Stormlight production time. That seems pretty reasonable. It was always going to be at least five years of a break. 

The cosmere is tricky. It's always going to be more than just Stormlight, even if it is a big portion of the cosmere. But he has to juggle multiple things, and I think the design was always to give him space to do Era 3 in between Stormlight 5 and 6, and maybe still Elantris sequels (though who knows how important that is now in his plans). 

I apologize. I think I came across as more grumpy in text than I actually. 

In a post last year I said I'm only looking forward to W&W4 and SA5 because anything beyond that is so far out it's not worth getting too excited for. I'm at peace with never reading the entire Cosmere saga. 

https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/98408-enough-with-skyward/?do=findComment&comment=1250911

I know adaptations are inevitable and I know it will split his focus. I was just hoping SA5 (the last of his work I allowed myself to be hyped for) would not be impacted by it. I had convinced myself that SA5 would be the smoothest one to write since whatever didn't happen in the first 4 and doesn't happen in 6-10 has to happen here and he outlined it while doing 4. I was really hoping it wouldn't get delayed. I was a fool :)

My point on White Sand  prose is he offloaded the story to other people in graphic novel form as a way to help him focus on other stuff while still getting a version of the story out there. But now he's going to do a full rewrite anyways. He just keeps adding stuff to his to do list even stuff he intentionally took off and gave to someone else because he "didn't have time". https://wob.coppermind.net/events/285/#e9157

I don't think he doesn't like Stormlight. I think he lowkey dreads the process because it takes more out of him than anything else. I believe he really wants to write all these Cosmere books AND do a million other things. Now that he's so successful he has more opportunity to do the million other things. Even for him I think there is only so much extra stuff he can add to his to do list without having to drop things off. Like I said, not my problem, after SA5 I'm good. I'll read what he writes after whenever that will be. I was just really looking forward to 5 *shrug* 

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5 hours ago, Child of Hodor said:

I had convinced myself that SA5 would be the smoothest one to write since whatever didn't happen in the first 4 and doesn't happen in 6-10 has to happen here and he outlined it while doing 4. I was really hoping it wouldn't get delayed.

End of an arc is harder, not easier.

Tying up plot threads, interweaving them together, while still having a story going on and not just "This needs to wrap up, so this thing is happening".

Even without Hollywood - Brandon has said that he'd known it would require extra care. Just like The Lost Metal did (which also pushed Stomrlight 5 back).

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Use the Falchion

Posted

15 hours ago, Mzuka said:

Also, Stormlight 6 2031 is not bad at all (too optimistic if you ask me). Book 5 comes out 2024, and in that gap he's writing and releasing the entire Mistborn Era 3 Trilogy, and who knows what else. Doing that, and writing and releasing a Stormlight book in 7 years? That would be Herculean. Feel like we would be getting just a bit spoiled as a fandom if we complained about that.

Humorously, I feel like it's the opposite...or at least it was. I think Storlight 6 in 2029 or 2030 is more likely than 2031. 

Brandon's talked in the past about how he plans to Mistborn Era 3, Elantris 2 & 3, potentially The Apocalypse Guardand Nightblood during the five years between Stormlight 5 & 6. At the time it felt Herculean, but now with Brandon seemingly having more time - well, potentially having more time again, once the movie/tv stuff calm down - I think it's possible. Brandon says that it takes him about six months for 200-250k word books. If Brandon plans on writing 6 books of that length, then it should take roughly three years, averaging about two books per year. (Granted, my old, detailed analysis that predicted when and how long it'd take to write each book is out of date.) The extra writing time and days that the pandemic has built into Brandon's schedule can, in theory, balance out the new responsibilities of movie/tv stuff once the meetings die down (or rather once 2-3 projects are picked up and homed in on) alongside writing those six books. Depending on how it's split, Brandon can also revise and write at the same time, so by the time he gets to that final year, he could be revising either Elantris 3 or Nightblood as he outlines the back half of Stormlight in preparation for a Stormlight 6 2029/2030 release, depending on how he's feeling and his responsibilities at the time. Although if he finds out he has a year left before Stormlight is scheduled to come out, I'd love to see him spend time writing more Secret Project books instead of Stormlight coming out sooner. Or maybe he could have more Stormlight written and ready before he announces another batch of Secret Project books. I know it wasn't really possible this time around, but in the future, it might be!

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2 hours ago, Oversleep said:

End of an arc is harder, not easier.

Tying up plot threads, interweaving them together, while still having a story going on and not just "This needs to wrap up, so this thing is happening".

Even without Hollywood - Brandon has said that he'd known it would require extra care. Just like The Lost Metal did (which also pushed Stomrlight 5 back).

True. I was just thinking he would not have to decide who was getting the flashbacks or whose book it was like he has had to in the other ones. He ended up flipping Szeth from book 3 to 5. That’s a huge change. 

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agrabes

Posted

I think there is some truth to @Child of Hodor's point.  It's probably a little pessimistic to say all is lost and/or Sanderson will never be on track for another book release again, etc.  But, unlike the equivalent time during the lead up to RoW, we're not seeing updates from Sanderson talking about being excited to work on SA5.  We're not seeing him make progress on the book like we did in 2019 for RoW, though he was at only 29% by this time in 2019 so it's not like he was halfway done with the book.  Obviously, he's busy with Hollywood stuff and that's great.  And even aside from the time he spends on that, for all we know he could have been working along and run into issues with the writing that required him to work on things that don't move the progress bar, etc.

I'm not doubting his work ethic, or his desire and passion for writing at all.  I'm not trying to say he's making a bad use of his time, or anything like that. I thought the SA5 prologue was great and some of the better writing he's done lately.  Just, you can tell a difference in his communication to the community about SA5 during the year he planned to spend writing it vs. how he interacted with the community in 2019 while writing RoW.  He seems less excited about it and it seems like it's not as much of a focus for him.  I think he should do exactly what he wants to do and come back to Stormlight when he's refreshed and ready to go like he was last time around.  I'd rather he take his time and make it great and write what he is passionate about vs. rushing it because he feels guilty about not being able to reach his writing goals and letting down the fans.

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15 hours ago, StormingTexan said:

Man I just hope SA adaptation is held off for a bit. I'd worry that it would become a GoT situation where studios outpace the source material (although I have like 500% more confidence in Sanderson of making it work). Granted there is a ton already and with the in-world time skip the studio would get a buffer of 10 years of actor aging but you never know what can happen. 

If season 1 of a SA adaptation were to air around the same as Stormlight 6 came out, I think we would be fine (even if there wasn't a 10 year break). Large scale shows take time to produce so by the time the show reached season 6 (assuming a book a season), he'd probably be on book 9.

With the time jump accounted for and the possibility for a TV adaptation to be split into 2 series, they could probably adapt Stormlight soon after book 5 comes out and then just wait until he was several books into the back half to produce the sequel series.

8 hours ago, Use the Falchion said:

Humorously, I feel like it's the opposite...or at least it was. I think Storlight 6 in 2029 or 2030 is more likely than 2031. 

Brandon's talked in the past about how he plans to Mistborn Era 3, Elantris 2 & 3, potentially The Apocalypse Guardand Nightblood during the five years between Stormlight 5 & 6. At the time it felt Herculean, but now with Brandon seemingly having more time - well, potentially having more time again, once the movie/tv stuff calm down - I think it's possible. Brandon says that it takes him about six months for 200-250k word books. If Brandon plans on writing 6 books of that length, then it should take roughly three years, averaging about two books per year. (Granted, my old, detailed analysis that predicted when and how long it'd take to write each book is out of date.) The extra writing time and days that the pandemic has built into Brandon's schedule can, in theory, balance out the new responsibilities of movie/tv stuff once the meetings die down (or rather once 2-3 projects are picked up and homed in on) alongside writing those six books. Depending on how it's split, Brandon can also revise and write at the same time, so by the time he gets to that final year, he could be revising either Elantris 3 or Nightblood as he outlines the back half of Stormlight in preparation for a Stormlight 6 2029/2030 release, depending on how he's feeling and his responsibilities at the time. Although if he finds out he has a year left before Stormlight is scheduled to come out, I'd love to see him spend time writing more Secret Project books instead of Stormlight coming out sooner. Or maybe he could have more Stormlight written and ready before he announces another batch of Secret Project books. I know it wasn't really possible this time around, but in the future, it might be!

Hmmm to be honest that still seems pretty tight to me. SA5 is set for 2024, so even if he wrote and released Mistborn Era 3, Elantris and Nightblood in 5 years, he would be finished with them in 2029. It's at least a year and a half from when he starts writing a Stormlight book to when it's released, so that's mid 2030 at best - and that's if he starts writing SA6 at the beginning of 2029.

Also, I have a feeling the Mistborn 3 books will be a bit longer than the W&W averages. Could be balanced out by the fact tht he's writing them all through though. It's ages away regardless and I feel like this arc is going to have satisfying conclusion to make the wait bearable - especially with all the dope stuff he's releasing in between.

@Child of Hodor and @agrabes I guess it comes down to opinion, neither of us can say how Brandon really feels about writing SA5. And I completely agree with focusing my excitement on what's coming next (even though I'mn hype and hopeful for later era cosmere).

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regarding a SA adaptation, I really doubt it's happening anytime soon. at least, nothing we'd actually want to see.

Do you have an idea how much it would cost? There are spren all the time you've got to add. You can't even shoot on the outside, because they have a different ground and different plants. The buildings look different from out own, because of highstorm considerations. There isn't a single scene that wouldn't require extensive and expensive editing.

I've never heard of that kind of money being spent on a project like that.

At most we can get something animated, that would certainly be feasible - drawing spren would not be an issue in that case - but it's not quite the same thing.

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6 hours ago, king of nowhere said:

regarding a SA adaptation, I really doubt it's happening anytime soon. at least, nothing we'd actually want to see.

Do you have an idea how much it would cost? There are spren all the time you've got to add. You can't even shoot on the outside, because they have a different ground and different plants. The buildings look different from out own, because of highstorm considerations. There isn't a single scene that wouldn't require extensive and expensive editing.

I've never heard of that kind of money being spent on a project like that.

At most we can get something animated, that would certainly be feasible - drawing spren would not be an issue in that case - but it's not quite the same thing.

Yes I fell like it would almost have to all be CGI. Taking the "Avitar" approach may be better or animated as you said. A good case to do Mistborn first since it is an earth like setting. Just need to CG the Mist Wraths, Ten Soon and some good makeup work for the Inquisitors. 

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16 hours ago, Mzuka said:

I have a feeling the Mistborn 3 books will be a bit longer than the W&W averages

Era 3 books are gonna be more like Era 1 books in length.

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2 hours ago, StormingTexan said:

Yes I fell like it would almost have to all be CGI. Taking the "Avitar" approach may be better or animated as you said. A good case to do Mistborn first since it is an earth like setting. Just need to CG the Mist Wraths, Ten Soon and some good makeup work for the Inquisitors. 

don't forget the red sun, but it should be easy to change color palette

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Use the Falchion

Posted (edited)

On 7/14/2022 at 1:58 AM, Mzuka said:

SA5 is set for 2024, so even if he wrote and released Mistborn Era 3, Elantris and Nightblood in 5 years, he would be finished with them in 2029. It's at least a year and a half from when he starts writing a Stormlight book to when it's released, so that's mid 2030 at best - and that's if he starts writing SA6 at the beginning of 2029.

Also, I have a feeling the Mistborn 3 books will be a bit longer than the W&W averages. Could be balanced out by the fact tht he's writing them all through though. It's ages away regardless and I feel like this arc is going to have satisfying conclusion to make the wait bearable - especially with all the dope stuff he's releasing in between.

I think you're forgetting that Brandon can write and revise at the same time, and that he plans on writing all of those books within the five years. I'm not sure he is or should be beholden to the idea of all of those releasing in those five years. That would be too much IMO. Era 3 and the Elantris books could make it, but not Nightblood. And frankly, I think that's fine. Again, my belief is that Stormlight 6 will be released before 2031.

When I tried to plot it out it out a year or two ago, I accounted for Era 3 taking longer. Brandon has said that Era 3, Elantris sequels, and Nightblood should all take around 6 months each. Assuming he finishes all of his revisions and work on Stormlight 5 by June 1, 2024 (which feels pretty generous at this time), a schedule may look something like: 

Spoiler

 

June 2024 - Horneater Draft 1*

July - Aug 2024 - Horneater revisions & Mistborn 8 outlining

Aug - Dec 2024 - Mistborn 8 Draft 1 (the writing time on this one is faster since first books in series always go by faster for Brandon)

Jan 2025 - Era 3 outlining*

Feb - July 2025 - Mistborn 9 Draft 1

July 2025 - Palate Cleanser

Aug 2025 - Feb 2026 - Mistborn 10 Draft 1 (it needs more time since it's a finale) 

March - June 2026 - Mistborn 8 Revisions & Elantris 2 & 3 outlining.** (These outlines can bleed into the palate cleanser time, if revisions go long or demand all of Brandon's focus this time around.)

July 2026 - Palate Cleanser

Aug - Dec 2026 - Elantris 2 Draft 1 (and Mistborn 9 revisions if he wants to get ahead, but I doubt it)

Jan - June 2027 - Mistborn 9 Revisions & Elantris 3 Draft 1

July 2027 - Palate Cleanser

Aug - Dec 2027 - Elantris 3 Draft 1 (if it's not done; if it is done, then Nightblood moves up a few months, which in turn moves the revisions up, which in turn moves Stormlight up) & Nightblood outlining.** 

Jan - June 2028 - Mistborn 10 Revisions, Stormlight Era 2 outlining, and Nightblood Draft 1

July 2028 - Palate Cleanser

Aug - December 2028 - Elantris 2 & 3 and Nightblood revisions, Stormlight 6 Draft 1 starts. 

All 2029 - Stormlight 6 Draft 1 continues

Late 2029 or Early 2030 - Stormlight six release. We're all assuming that Brandon will start the back half of Stormlight with it being the size of OB and RoW, when he's probably more likely to go back down to TWOK or WoR size books. That could take him anywhere from 8-9 months to the full 11-12 months of pure writing. If it's the former and he gets a good chunk (roughly 30-40%) written in 2028, then I don't think a November 2029 release date is too far-fetched. It'd be Herculean, but not far-fetched. Which is fine, since either time is still before 2031. 

 

 

Alternatively, if Brandon does decide to get ahead with the Mistborn 9 revisions Aug-Dec 2026:

Spoiler

Aug - Dec 2026 - Elantris 2 Draft 1 & Mistborn 9 Revisions (pre-outlined and excited for the book should mean that Elantris 2 could work on a quicker schedule)

Jan - June 2027 - Elantris 3 Draft 1 & Mistborn 10 Revisions

July 2027 - Palate Cleanser

Aug 2027 - March 2028 - Nightblood outlining and Draft 1, Stormlight Era 2 outlining

April - May 2028 - Palate Cleanser

June 2028 - Feb 2029 - Elantris 2 & 3 and Nightblood revisions, Stormlight 6 Draft 1 

Feb - Aug 2029 - Stormlight revisions and (and Nov/Dec release)

 

In this case, the release dates would be roughly:

2024 - Stormlight 5 & Horneater 

November 2026 - Misborn 8

November 2027 - Mistborn 9 

November 2028 - Mistborn 10

2029 - Elantris 2 (Spring) & Stormlight 6 (Nov/Dec)

2030 - Elantris 3 

2031 - Nightblood

 

Not listed: Skyward sequel trilogy novels (I'm guessing they'll be 2024-2026), The Apocalypse Guard and any potential sequels (I'm also guessing 2024-2026 or something similar), Boatload of Mummies (Isaac's book should be finished by the end of this year, I'd assume, so it could go in 2023 or even 2024 as a nice bridge between TLM and Era 3), The Atzlanian (no possible way to confirm a release since it's not even close to being written, but I'm hoping for a 2023 or 2024 release, if Brandon can find a solid coauthor this year), Lux sequels (no idea, but I think if it is a trilogy, 2023 and either 2024 or 2025 is feasible). 

Things could easily move up a few months if Brandon finishes all of his revisions Stormlight 5 before June 1, 2024 and/or if the palate cleansers aren't really needed.

 

Again, all of this was based on Brandon's words and desires before the Secret Projects. He supposedly has more writing days now, since his travel days are in the teens and twenties rather than eighties or even over a hundred, despite those days being taken up by meetings at the moment. I have a feeling that books could be finished slightly quicker than before on the whole, especially when the meetings calm down as Sanderson focuses in on 1-2 projects at a time. Alternatively, the main books would be finished at a slightly slower pace, but we may get more quirky, fun one-off books. Either way, I'm still of the belief that 2029 isn't impossible, and while 2030 is more likely, we won't be waiting 7 years between Stormlight 5 and Stormlight 6.

 

 

*I'm giving it about a month since I'm guessing it'll be somewhere between the length of Edgedancer and Dawnshard, but who knows. 

*Brandon has talked about how he outlines and writes the first book in a series and then goes back to outline the entire series. 

**For the outlining slots, depending on how long it takes, Brandon can use that spare time to work on other projects like collaborations, write and/or revise scripts, or even write more Secret Project novels. Outlining usually doesn't take more than a month or so, so he'd have 3-4 months of spare time to do with what he wills, or other things that need to be done. He could also just use the time to get ahead, but I think "giving" (as if it was our time to give) Brandon freedom to use that time as he desires would result in an overall better outcome. 

***If Elantris 3 is finished, then I'd say Brandon could go straight into outlining and writing Nightblood, with a desire to get ahead of the curve when it comes to his other revisions. 

Edited by Use the Falchion
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Exciting/sad news all in one! I do agree that it seems like the wear of writing a stormlight book is taking more and more of a toll on Brandon.  It seems like it is becoming more and more a drudgery, something he feels he has to do rather than something he can’t wait to do. Personally I’d trade all 4 secret projects for SA5.  But it seems like these other projects are necessary for Brandon to give us his best version of SA5, and there are much worse things for authors to need for rejuvenation than writing new exciting books.

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