Long Game 81: Lasting Integrity?

[Archer]

Well that was anti-climatic. Az, do you plan on voting next Day? Friendly reminder to because if we don't get a kill through the elims will win with the subsequent NK. 

33 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Elim!Lahilt would have voted for Mat if Mat was village, and just abstained if he was teammates with Mat. 

Agreed on the first point, but I'm not sold on the second. I don't think they had the votes to push an exe through on you, but if we assume Lahilt thought it was like an hour or so to rollover, they could have been just vote splitting. Worst case scenario for them was Az showing up and sealing the deal by sheeping the majority, so creating a second viable wagon could have been a ploy to scuttle the exe. It reads as more e!Mat-e!Lahilt play to me.  

29 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think everyone else should do something similar in coming up with a list like this. It’d be nice to have some sort of an idea about our next move before it happens, right?

I'm a little paranoid that will help the elims choose their ideal kill target.  But also y'all pretty much know where I'm at already so it's not too big a deal. 

-Mat-Lahilt still seems viable to me

Quote

That kinda begs the question of why someone else didn’t hammer me though.

-Anything with Az explains this, if you assume Mat is village

Okay really the problem here is we had clear vote splitting so we can't say Mat was being hammered. If he was, Araris-Dannex would be the pairing. If we assume both Araris and Mat are village, Lahilt is village because they didn't kill Mat and Dannex and Az are evil. Which explains the failure to kill Mat. Araris-Lahilt could explain the Lahilt vote on Araris because it's distancing at a time when it doesn't matter, but then they'd have just killed Mat.

So unless Mat is evil, Lahilt is village. Based on the votes, e!Mat's only other teammate could be Az. 

Nah, I'm committed here. Mat will be my vote tomorrow. 

[Araris Valerian]

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

Well that was anti-climatic. Az, do you plan on voting next Day? Friendly reminder to because if we don't get a kill through the elims will win with the subsequent NK. 

Pretty sure Az dies to the filter if he doesn't post tonight. 

[Mat]

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'm a little paranoid that will help the elims choose their ideal kill target.  But also y'all pretty much know where I'm at already so it's not too big a deal. 

You’re probably the kill :P. But say it’s Lahilt, would your stance on me change?

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

Nah, I'm committed here. Mat will be my vote tomorrow. 

Or maybe, with this stance, the elims will just kill Danex or someone and since you’re committed they can 3-2 majority kill me for the win. Next cycle the village has to be unanimous and I am voting Araris or Az.

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Pretty sure Az dies to the filter if he doesn't post tonight. 

This would be nice as long as, you know, he’s evil :P. Which like Archer said statistically makes the most sense anyway.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Archer]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You’re probably the kill :P. But say it’s Lahilt, would your stance on me change?

I'll tell you next Day  

7 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Pretty sure Az dies to the filter if he doesn't post tonight. 

@Illwei, would they be replaced or killed?

[Mat]

22 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'll tell you next Day  

Confident you’ll survive?

[Azmine_king]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

I'll tell you next Day  

@Illwei, would they be replaced or killed?

Replaced, it would be lame for town to lose majority by having me mod killed 

[danex]

Azmine
i would like to ask you some questions

as you've moved up my sus list a little

I still really want araris/mat to be the team
but logical!me admits it might not be

mat/azmine might be my new guess

Question #1
Who would you have voted last cycle

Question #2
Where have you been? Any bluetext to share?

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Danex said:

Any bluetext to share?

I don't like this question being asked :P. It shouldn't need to be answered. Leaving it as 'Where have you been?' I think is good. But that's a meta discussion that may or may not be approached later.

What's your top team guess that doesn't include me?

[danex]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I don't like this question being asked :P. It shouldn't need to be answered. Leaving it as 'Where have you been?' I think is good. But that's a meta discussion that may or may not be approached later.

What's your top team guess that doesn't include me?

uh

araris/azmine i guess

but ngl i'm fairly certain the team does include you sooooooooooooo

[---]

-Day 5-

---

Day has started, and will end in about 48 hours, on Friday, November 5th at 4PM PST

• Days are 48 hours long and Nights are 24. 
• There are 6 living players. If no Spren has 4 or more votes by the end of the Day, nothing will happen. 
• There is an activity filter of 2 Turns (One cycle.)
• Elims may not talk in the doc.
• There are NO PMs.

Player list

Spoiler

1. @Araris Valerian - Tresspasser's will

2. @Archer - Spren 10

3. ashwastaken - Oak - Loyal Honor Spren

4. @Azmine_king

5. @Danex

6. @Lahilt - Lahilt

7. Mage - Therla - Loyal Honor Spren

8. @Matrim's Dice - Phrylsena

9. Tani - Loyal Honor Spren

10. TJ - Fiorlan - Loyal Honor Spren

11. The Unknown Order - Loyal Honor Spren

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by Illwei

[Archer]

Who died? 

Also Araris, can you walk me through your thought process where you cleared Mat and Lahilt again? That happened a little quickly for my liking. 

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

Who died? 

Also Araris, can you walk me through your thought process where you cleared Mat and Lahilt again? That happened a little quickly for my liking. 

I think no one?

Which is very confusing since now a miskill isn’t an auto-lose

I would hope this clears me as village since there is no chance I don’t kill as elim here :P

[Araris Valerian]

13 minutes ago, Archer said:

Who died? 

Also Araris, can you walk me through your thought process where you cleared Mat and Lahilt again? That happened a little quickly for my liking. 

So Lahilt is the only person I was really confident about clearing. Mat is really only cleared if we assume that one of Az/Lahilt is elim, and that person was around at rollover. I am pretty confident now that Az is elim, based on the lack of a kill and Lahilt being rather cleared, but don't know if he was around.

To clarify with Az, he is the person that was emphasizing why at a theoretical 5-3 the village shouldn't vote anyone out. That logic holds just as strong for the elim team last night, which makes me think Az was arguing for that.

Also, while it's kinda suspicious that he pointed it out, I kinda reached the conclusion Mat is pushing us towards, in that he was in opposition to Az's argument despite the math. In combination with his D1 tunnel and Lahilt (the person Mat absolutely wouldn't vote for) likely being village, I would tend to have Mat as village now.

[Mat]

33 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I would hope this clears me as village since there is no chance I don’t kill as elim here

But also like, who wouldn't? Az posted. Lahilt is cleared, in my eyes. Everyone posted.

Voting Az seems like the optimal play here. But I'm not going to. I'm going to vote Araris.

Because I think it's equally likely that Araris and Az are elims. I also think Danex has decent elim credence. Archer's potential elimness just went up because he survived after being confident he would. But in a world where any of those candidates are virtually as likely as another, The team that makes the most sense to me is an Araris/Danex team who decided not to kill so they could push Az as a misexe and then win it N5.

This is the kind of hot take the dead doc either loves because it's right or screams at because I'm tinfoiling when I don't need to.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The team that makes the most sense to me is an Araris/Danex team who decided not to kill so they could push Az as a misexe and then win it N5.

Wouldn't it make sense for me to kill you in this case (removing most of the force behind killing me off), and then go ahead and vote out Az? Killing you wouldn't be an expected move from elim!me, since I was gunning for you in the thread last cycle. And Az is quiet enough that I think it would be pretty easy to force a misexe on him.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Azmine_king]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

To clarify with Az, he is the person that was emphasizing why at a theoretical 5-3 the village shouldn't vote anyone out. That logic holds just as strong for the elim team last night, which makes me think Az was arguing for that.

Why would I bring up and post about something I planned to use later on in the game?

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Which is very confusing since now a miskill isn’t an auto-lose

How is it not? If there's not 3 scum which my bad for assuming last time, there has to be 2. 6 players left currently.

4-2
Mislynch
3-2
Night kill
2-2 parity

[Archer]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Which is very confusing since now a miskill isn’t an auto-lose

I would hope this clears me as village since there is no chance I don’t kill as elim here

Adding to what Az said, the only way we don't lose is a no-exe or exing an elim. Miskill is still bad. 

My initial read is that e!you would submit the kill after killing TJ, but maybe that's what you want us to think. 

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

To clarify with Az, he is the person that was emphasizing why at a theoretical 5-3 the village shouldn't vote anyone out. That logic holds just as strong for the elim team last night, which makes me think Az was arguing for that.

Also, while it's kinda suspicious that he pointed it out, I kinda reached the conclusion Mat is pushing us towards, in that he was in opposition to Az's argument despite the math. In combination with his D1 tunnel and Lahilt (the person Mat absolutely wouldn't vote for) likely being village, I would tend to have Mat as village now.

If we don't kill today, we can I remember Az talking about the no kill option but, isn't that kinda obvious?

Where I'm confused is Lahilt being likely village is because he can only be elim with one person - Mat. But we're only looking for one pairing that works, and that'd one that clicks. I need to reread to check for not e-e behavior, I'll probably do that tomorrow, but your backing off of that fairly easily last round seemed odd considering you were ready to exe them at exlo. 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

 Archer's potential elimness just went up because he survived after being confident he would. But in a world where any of those candidates are virtually as likely as another, The team that makes the most sense to me is an Araris/Danex team who decided not to kill so they could push Az as a misexe and then win it N5.

Interesting you should bring that up because my stance last Night was designed to decrease my odds of being killed. E!Mat looks guiltier because I was voting for him, and e!Araris (or e!not on Mat's team) wants me alive because I'll mix. I don't think I can draw many conclusions from my not being killed, except for a team without one of you two on it probably would have killed me, but I'm assuming that's why I'm still here. 

Right now I'm split between it's a Mat-Lahilt team, or its Araris-Dannex/Az, with Dannex the more likely pairing because of Araris' vote today. Like I said, I really gotta reread. My gut is telling me it's the obvious answer, but I'll be a smart boi and reevaluate my thinking at exlo this game. :P. 

33 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

 Killing you wouldn't be an expected move from elim!me, since I was gunning for you in the thread last cycle. And Az is quiet enough that I think it would be pretty easy to force a misexe on him.

Soo E!you isn't expected to kill Mat and after last Night, Mat is still alive... Huh. :P. If you killed v!Mat, you'd send both Danex and my votes floating, and that's dangerous territory. I'm not convinced you'd have taken the shot. That said, I think both you and Mat would have made some sort of kill. So I'll pencil in Team Low Profile as my third (tinfoil) option: Dannex-Az. 

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Azmine_king said:

Why would I bring up and post about something I planned to use later on in the game?

I dunno, reverse psychology or something. And you haven’t really given me much else to work with where you are concerned.

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Wouldn't it make sense for me to kill you in this case (removing most of the force behind killing me off), and then go ahead and vote out Az? Killing you wouldn't be an expected move from elim!me, since I was gunning for you in the thread last cycle. And Az is quiet enough that I think it would be pretty easy to force a misexe on him.

Considering two players said straight-up that they were planning on voting me today, no. NKing me makes no sense. (Which I guess is kinda what you said, but still. I think it'd be easier for you to just misexe me which is a weird argument to make since I'm accusing you of gambitting to exe Az.)

Really, the easiest plan that the elims should have gone with was to just kill Archer and misexe me. Like. I don't know why they didn't just try to do that :P. Maybe for the reason that it's obvious.

1 hour ago, Azmine_king said:

How is it not? If there's not 3 scum which my bad for assuming last time, there has to be 2. 6 players left currently.

I meant in the literal sense. Like, there will be an N5 if we misexe, as opposed to what we thought last cycle. Not that it matters, you're right, but eh.

59 minutes ago, Archer said:

My initial read is that e!you would submit the kill after killing TJ, but maybe that's what you want us to think. 

If I were elim you would be dead. One hundred percent you would be dead.

59 minutes ago, Archer said:

Interesting you should bring that up because my stance last Night was designed to decrease my odds of being killed. E!Mat looks guiltier because I was voting for him, and e!Araris (or e!not on Mat's team) wants me alive because I'll mix. I don't think I can draw many conclusions from my not being killed, except for a team without one of you two on it probably would have killed me, but I'm assuming that's why I'm still here. 

I can buy this though. Paired with my village read of you trying to bait me I can totally buy this. I'm just paranoid, sorry.

I still think it's Araris/Az; please can it be Araris/Az so I can have some form of redemption for my terrible reads so far xD

Edit: Wait no that literally contradicts my earlier post what am I doing

The common thread is Araris I guess

Start there

Edited November 4, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[danex]

Well then
guess it's just D4 all over again

absolutely nothing changed

I'd be down with either a Mat or Azmine kill today
i could maybe be convinced to do an araris kill
I dont see us killing either archer or lahilt 

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Because I think it's equally likely that Araris and Az are elims. I also think Danex has decent elim credence. Archer's potential elimness just went up because he survived after being confident he would.

you just named every single person except yourself and lahilt =P
i really hope the team isn't mat/lahilt
even super illogical tunnel!me doesn't believe an elim would be that obvious

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Really, the easiest plan that the elims should have gone with was to just kill Archer and misexe me. Like. I don't know why they didn't just try to do that :P. Maybe for the reason that it's obvious.

Or one of you is elim yourselves

 

ok, here's what I think we should do
So I'm equally willing to kill mat or az
Araris is voting az
and mat is equally willing to kill az or araris

seems like Az is the common thread

[Mat]

My theory is coming to pass

[Lahilt]

I do not think that voting for Az is a good idea at this point, they seem to be a too obvious option. I wanted either Araris or Mat and Araris will get my vote.

[Mat]

9 hours ago, Danex said:

you just named every single person except yourself and lahilt =P

I’m aware of that

9 hours ago, Danex said:

seems like Az is the common thread

And you’re not at all concerned with voting the ‘common thread’ when it’s shared half and half with your trusts and suspects?

9 hours ago, Danex said:

Well then
guess it's just D4 all over again

absolutely nothing changed

And obviously something changed since you’re no longer voting me

The more time that goes on the more I’m convinced of my Araris/Danex theory. I’d be willing to stake the game on it, which I suppose I am. 

[danex]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And you’re not at all concerned with voting the ‘common thread’ when it’s shared half and half with your trusts and suspects?

not really, no
its better than voting nobody and doing nothing
if you would rather have me vote you just ask

[Araris Valerian]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The more time that goes on the more I’m convinced of my Araris/Danex theory. I’d be willing to stake the game on it, which I suppose I am.

Can you summarize? I think I already went over your reasons for suspecting me and found them wanting, but why would Danex be my partner? I was pretty suspicious of Danex after D1, but our interaction afterwards gave me village vibes.

Also, Danex and I both voted for Mage D1, I think. But it was in the elims' best interest to have no exe D1 (something I think Az would have caught onto), since that gives no info and still puts us closer to LyLo. I think TJ agreed with me on this that the elims probably split their votes D1.

Also also, while tunnel!Mat is coming off village to me, it still doesn't help the village. 

Edit:

1 hour ago, Lahilt said:

I do not think that voting for Az is a good idea at this point, they seem to be a too obvious option. I wanted either Araris or Mat and Araris will get my vote.

Could I get an explanation for this suspicion? Are you just sheeping Mat's vote, or do you have your own reason to suspect me?

Edited November 4, 2021 by Araris Valerian