Long Game 81: Lasting Integrity?

[Lahilt]

46 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Could I get an explanation for this suspicion? Are you just sheeping Mat's vote, or do you have your own reason to suspect me?

It is a mixture of stuff including you just going after Az. I think you are trying too hard to get any kill (which would end the game) rather than the correct kill.

[Mat]

35 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Can you summarize? I think I already went over your reasons for suspecting me and found them wanting, but why would Danex be my partner? I was pretty suspicious of Danex after D1, but our interaction afterwards gave me village vibes.

It came from me wondering about the lack of kill, and why the thread switched away from me so quickly. You immediately voted Az, which seemed weird since my top theory from yesterday was Araris/Az, and Danex followed it despite affirming yesterday that there wasn't anyone he suspected more than me. That reads like it was coordinated. The one thing that doesn't make sense is why you guys didn't just kill Archer and misexe me, but that was the optimal move for any of the possible elim teams so it doesn't really matter.

[Archer]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, Danex and I both voted for Mage D1, I think. But it was in the elims' best interest to have no exe D1 (something I think Az would have caught onto), since that gives no info and still puts us closer to LyLo. I think TJ agreed with me on this that the elims probably split their votes D1.

This is a bad argument because the elims couldn't coordinate D1 and we thought there was three elims when guessing that. But that's actually good news for you because Danex voted TJ D1, not Mage with you. :P. 

I suspect the elims voted together yesterday to try to punch through a kill. I'd be more confident they did that than that they split D1. 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It came from me wondering about the lack of kill, and why the thread switched away from me so quickly. You immediately voted Az, which seemed weird since my top theory from yesterday was Araris/Az, and Danex followed it despite affirming yesterday that there wasn't anyone he suspected more than me. That reads like it was coordinated. The one thing that doesn't make sense is why you guys didn't just kill Archer and misexe me, but that was the optimal move for any of the possible elim teams so it doesn't really matter.

I don't follow Danex's logic for their vote, which makes me think it's made up to arbitrarily support the Az wagon. Namely

2 hours ago, Danex said:

Its better than voting nobody and doing nothing

this is a big red flag argument to me. 

The problem with voting Araris/Danex though is it indicates we almost lost last cycle and that gives me feels. Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmokay. Araris

[danex]

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

this is a big red flag argument to me. 

it isn't really an argument though
it isn't the reason I'm voting az
but factually, literally, voting someone is better than doing nothing
I'd rather lose and start a new LG than continue in a boring stalemate

if everyone thinks me/araris e/e
then can I help disprove that
by Araris

what are the connections between us even

Edited November 4, 2021 by Danex

[Mat]

7 minutes ago, Danex said:

if everyone thinks me/araris e/e
then can I help disprove that
by Araris

You being the fourth vote doesn't help disprove anything, really. Since the other two players are Araris and Lahilt.

don't get nervous about the math, Mat. Smh.

8 minutes ago, Danex said:

what are the connections between us even

You connectedly voted Az when both of you have connectedly had a track record of suspecting me more than Az. I haven't actually reread since I flipped my read on you (again) so I bet I'd find something if I did that, but it'd also be a bit confbiased.

[Araris Valerian]

Well, if I was taking this a whole lot more seriously than I ever would, I would be quite saddened that y’all think that I would play how the elims have this game (not trying to control the thread, not submitting a kill last night, no bussing). Edit: Also, no offense intended to the actual elims here. Just don’t see eye-to-eye with you guys on one or two things.

And the torrent of votes falling on me makes me think now that Az is actually village. I dunno. I should really do a comprehensive reads list/ISO, because I think I now have multiple competing takes on just about everyone. Good thing there is plenty of time left in the turn for that. Expect something like that from me tomorrow. I’d appreciate if other people could do something like that as well, so we aren’t just all going off of gut reads of things in the last 48 hours.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Mat]

I reread a bit of the previous cycles and was shocked to see my D2 reads list not aging terribly  The problem was my D3 and 4 lists. But anyways.

I’d say Danex and Araris definitely have partner equity in their interactions. One particular moment (which I pointed out as it happened as well) was when Danex tried to claim me and Araris as either v/v or e/e, which since e!Danex knows I’m village would effectively be clearing a teammate here. I called out the reasoning and he backed off.

Plus there’s the whole Tani-voted-Danex-D1-then-got-NKd-N1 thing. So yeah I’m sticking to my guns here. I might have talked myself to being more confident in e!Dannex but with a current majority and Danex only really working as an elim if he’s partnered with Araris, I’m fine with staying. Don’t want to mess it up :P.

I still don’t know why there wasn’t a kill last night. Maybe it was just miscommunication and we’re all assuming a gambit when there was none.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
Don’t mind me, just using Danex and Dannex interchangeably

[danex]

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Plus there’s the whole Tani-voted-Danex-D1-then-got-NKd-N1 thing.

I've said it before and ill say it again, no elim worth their socks would kill over one single vote, how pointless and obvious is that

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Don’t mind me, just using Danex and Dannex interchangeably

This is allowed and encouraged

Spoiler

just don't use Dannnnex
allowed range is
0<n<4
4>n<inf

Spoiler

:eyes:

 

well
if at this point we're just waiting for the cycle to end
what do yall want to do

[Archer]

Time for whatever this is! (Spoilered so Illwei doesn't think it's vote-related greening)

Spoiler

 

Day One:

Mage (4): Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, Archer, ashwastaken

TJ (3): Danex, Lahilt, Mage

Azmine_King (1): The Unknown Order

Danex (1): Tani

Matrim's Dice (1): Azmine_King

Not Voting (1): TJ

-The elims did split their votes, because Araris-Mat is not e-e.

NK: Tani

-Most obviously suggests e!Danex. Also possible the elims wanted the TJ and Mage mixes to remain viable, so they killed someone who was voting on a side wagon.

Day Two:

Mage (7): ashwastaken, Danex, Araris, TUO, Matrim, Archer, Azmine, Lahilt

ashwastaken (2): Mage, TJ

-We all dun goofed

NK: TUO

-No obvious reason, but in the same vein as the last one, I wonder if they wanted to keep people around who were voting for main mix wagons

Day Three:

Ashwastaken (5): TJ, Archer, Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice, Lahilt

Matrim's Dice (2): Danex, ashwastaken

Not Voting (1): Azmine_King

-Interesting that either Mat-Lahilt voted together, or the elims split their votes again.

NK: TJ

-Following the pattern, they should have killed Az. But as we know, TJ was widely trusted and suspected Mat, so I understand why they went for him.

Day Four:

Matrim's Dice (3): Araris, Archer, Danex

Araris (2): Matrim's Dice, Lahilt*

Not voting: Azmine_King

-Mat isn’t e-e with Araris or Danex

-Lahilt isn’t e-e with anyone but Mat

-Mat and Araris have been in on every main wagon so far, except for when Mat was the target. So there’s not much daylight there.

 

NK: Nobody

-Let’s look at this from three perspectives. Last Night, from the elim perspective, I’m a likely Mat voter, Araris thinks Mat and Lahilt are villagers. Dannex thinks it’s Mat-Azmine. Az is a question mark. Lahilt is a question mark.

1. Mat-Lahilt are e-e. Araris is an available ally, but won’t believe I’m evil, so you must kill me and implicate Az and Dannex as teammates. But if you kill me, it implicates Mat, who is still taking heat from the TJ kill. So you leave me alive and push… an Araris exe. Seems like a waste of a potential ally, but it works in practice because he’s suspicious. They’d have to sell Az and Danex on it, maybe indicate a me-Araris team to avoid alienating those two voters. What they’ve actually gone for is Araris-Danex, which has worked out, but I don’t think they’d have known it would work yesterday. It’s fuzzy because it has worked out, but I’m not sure they’d draw it up like this.

2. Araris-Danex are e-e. So Mat and Lahilt are cleared by Araris and I’m fairly trusted. I think the problem they encounter is if you kill me, you have to then come up with a two-man team that convinces the third person you’re right, and Az is unpredictable. 

Splitting it by Lahilt-Mat v Az-Araris-Danex has the most potential, but Araris already said he trusts those two.

Lahilt-Az v Mat-Araris-Danex won’t work because Mat trusts Lahilt.

Mat-Az v Lahilt-Araris-Danex might work, but Lahilt seems inclined to trust Mat.

So faced with no good set-ups there, you don’t kill me, and instead… well if you kill Mat or Lahilt, I’ll know I’m wrong there and won't vote for them. If you kill Az though, you can push Mat-Lahilt. That probably would have worked actually, but then I might ask questions like why not kill someone who was voting for Mat last round? And Araris had already said they were clear. Going back on a read is fine, but he seemed to quickly think that it was obvious they were cleared, so I can see him not trusting the village to make what he saw as an illogical read to end the game.

In this situation, I can see them opting to forgo the advantage of the 3:2 ratio in favor of keeping Az around as either a vote or a suspect. If you assume I’m voting for Mat, then Danex can too, and if you put some pressure on Az, perhaps they’d default to sheeping the majority and give you that extra vote on Mat you needed last round. Araris can hammer at the end for the win. Or if Az’s vote never gets there, you can stay pushing him and hope to get Mat and Lahilt voting alongside you rather than on you. This ended up making more sense to me as an explanation for what the elims were thinking than the Mat-Lahilt set-up.

3. Araris-Az are e-e. Nah, they’d make the kill if they were planning on bussing out of the gate. They’d need every kill they can get. Maybe Araris wanted to give Az an excuse to vote Mat and was counting on Danex and I sticking to Mat, but I doubt it. 

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

no bussing

I think somebody is bussing right now. It's just not you. :P. Oh, speak of the devil,

4 minutes ago, Danex said:

just don't use Dannnnex

Danⁿex

I have unlocked infinite n's 

(just kidding, I don't know how math works)

[Mat]

17 minutes ago, Danex said:

I've said it before and ill say it again, no elim worth their socks would kill over one single vote, how pointless and obvious is that

I mean, now that you’ve said it this becomes an IKYK. I like Archer’s reason he said in his last post of the elims wanting the TJ and Mage trains still viable also.

10 minutes ago, Archer said:

Time for whatever this is! (Spoilered so Illwei doesn't think it's vote-related greening)

I appreciate this, btw

10 minutes ago, Archer said:

Danⁿex

I have unlocked infinite n's 

(just kidding, I don't know how math works)

I laughed way too hard at this xD

I think that’s like, theoretical infinite n’s. Because any number could go in the exponent. But idk.

[Azmine_king]

Araris

[Araris Valerian]

So 5 people are voting on me. That makes lots of sense. Uh huh. Y'know, I once gave Wilson a hard time for being so good at being elim that she would inevitably help them out when she ended up as village. Seems that I may have been being a bit hypocritical there...

[Mat]

17 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

So 5 people are voting on me. That makes lots of sense. Uh huh.

 

(Edit was moved to the next post)

Edited November 5, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Araris Valerian]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Definitely a winning strat during Lylo when you were a pretty easy alternative until I started thinking out loud. But I guess if you're my teammate, then it makes sense.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Definitely a winning strat during Lylo when you were a pretty easy alternative until I started thinking out loud. But I guess if you're my teammate, then it makes sense.

I suppose I of all people should be worried about the math on this one. But I don’t know what else to do at this point. I would switch to Danex if we got a consensus, but idk if that’s possible.

And I have already said how confused I am that I didn’t really get pushed today. That’s still something I don’t have an explanation for.

[Araris Valerian]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I suppose I of all people should be worried about the math on this one. But I don’t know what else to do at this point. I would switch to Danex if we got a consensus, but idk if that’s possible.

And I have already said how confused I am that I didn’t really get pushed today. That’s still something I don’t have an explanation for.

Yeah, I'm honestly just really confused about how quickly things switched over to me, and also I basically have no idea who is elim, hence my promised reread of the game. My gut is currently telling me that a strong shift off of you and onto me means that I should be really suspicious of you. But my gut has been telling me so many different things throughout this game that at this point I think I'm either sick or hungry, and it has nothing to do with anyone's alignment at all.

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, here’s my first player analysis:

Spoiler

Danex

First post says will be focusing low active players, thinks game is elim-sided. Follows with a poke vote on TJ (though with clarification this is more of a stab vote). Gives some speculation about elim team size, and says we should exe someone every cycle, except maybe at LyLo (didn’t realize someone had said this besides Az). Was offline so couldn’t switch to Mage.

Day 2 does some analysis of Tani’s posts, doesn’t really say anything, except acknowledge the elims went for a low-info kill. Responds to a bunch of things Mage said, and kinda hedges on a conclusion. Has some back and forth with me that generally gives me village vibes. Note to self, my accusations here were kind of aggressive and unfounded.

Day 3 defends Lahilt versus Mat. And then votes me, because I voted Lahilt. Then after Mat retracts on me, thinks we might be e/e. Ends up voting Ash.

Day 4 is still thinking Mat and I are e/e, has Mat in all possible elim teams. Is paranoid that Archer is elim (I’m starting to feel this as well). Has some back and forth with Mat that feels pretty genuine. Tries to get unvoters to vote for Mat.

Night 5 goes after Az a bit.

Day 5 wants to vote Mat, As, or me. Starts with Az since they are a common suspicion

My conclusion is that Danex is village. The read is mostly from tone, but I feel fairly confident about it. Probably the most suspicious thing is hedging on Mage D2. But even that fits with unconfident villager.

[Mat]

10 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, here’s my first player analysis:

  Reveal hidden contents

Danex

First post says will be focusing low active players, thinks game is elim-sided. Follows with a poke vote on TJ (though with clarification this is more of a stab vote). Gives some speculation about elim team size, and says we should exe someone every cycle, except maybe at LyLo (didn’t realize someone had said this besides Az). Was offline so couldn’t switch to Mage.

Day 2 does some analysis of Tani’s posts, doesn’t really say anything, except acknowledge the elims went for a low-info kill. Responds to a bunch of things Mage said, and kinda hedges on a conclusion. Has some back and forth with me that generally gives me village vibes. Note to self, my accusations here were kind of aggressive and unfounded.

Day 3 defends Lahilt versus Mat. And then votes me, because I voted Lahilt. Then after Mat retracts on me, thinks we might be e/e. Ends up voting Ash.

Day 4 is still thinking Mat and I are e/e, has Mat in all possible elim teams. Is paranoid that Archer is elim (I’m starting to feel this as well). Has some back and forth with Mat that feels pretty genuine. Tries to get unvoters to vote for Mat.

Night 5 goes after Az a bit.

Day 5 wants to vote Mat, As, or me. Starts with Az since they are a common suspicion

My conclusion is that Danex is village. The read is mostly from tone, but I feel fairly confident about it. Probably the most suspicious thing is hedging on Mage D2. But even that fits with unconfident villager.

Interesting.

Any specific reason you chose to do Danex first?

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Interesting.

Any specific reason you chose to do Danex first?

Maybe there was, but I've since forgotten. And I'm not sure if I'll have enough time to do the others in the same level of detail at this point, unfortunately. I will say that I'm less confused about why people are voting for me, after rereading things. Or at least I understand that the sentiment isn't new, even if I don't get the reasons.

Edit: Okay, so I tried looking at Archer's stuff again, and honestly think he's a decent elim candidate. He posted a reads list with Az has his highest suspicion, and then voted Danex the next day and never really mentioned Az as a suspicion again. He was pretty aggressive with pushing for Mat in thread, and then asked Az in thread if he would be around to vote today.

Az is also just not really doing anything to help the village. He didn't vote the last two Days, and this cycle he's posted a whopping one word (albeit a significant one). He tried to get the village to forgo our D3 vote, when it wasn't actually LyLo and not voting anyone off would have just hurt us. He's also  the only surviving player from D1 that didn't vote TJ or Mage, and would have fit the bill of low-info kills, which suspiciously stopped before reaching him. Also also, how the heck has nobody wanted to go after Az this game? He's done basically nothing except some math and questioning Mat's null read on him. And yet there has not been a serious attempt to vote him off.

Mat overall comes off as village. I dunno, maybe I can't actually read Mat, but I have a village feel in the same vein as my one on Danex. Lahilt is a bit of an unknown, but the failed vote last cycle comes off as pretty village to me. And that's another bad look for Archer, he didn't want to dismiss Lahilt as an option for today.

So that's where I'm at. Archer/Az is the elim team, and I'm happy to vote for either. Probably can't convince 2 people to change their votes before turn end, but at least I've said something and now I can see how horribly wrong my reads were once the game ends.

@Matrim's Dice @Lahilt @Danex a couple of you want to help me out here?

Edited November 5, 2021 by Araris Valerian
More things to say

[danex]

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also also, how the heck has nobody wanted to go after Az this game?

*raises hand*
I did
earlier this cycle
i'd be willing to switch if I knew we had enough votes to get a majority

@Illwei vote count por favor?

Edited November 5, 2021 by Danex

[---]

VC

Araris (5): Matrim, Lahilt, Archer, Danex, Azmine

Azmine (1): Araris

[Mat]

Nah I’m good. I’m not switching after pushing for this the whole time. If we lose,  then we lose.

[Araris Valerian]

45 minutes ago, Danex said:

*raises hand*
I did
earlier this cycle
i'd be willing to switch if I knew we had enough votes to get a majority

@Illwei vote count por favor?

I think it's too late in the game for a majority on anyone but me at this point. Lahilt and Az mostly likely aren't around to change their votes. Also, I think I retracted my vote on Az earlier, so if I did, I'm putting it back. Azmine

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Nah I’m good. I’m not switching after pushing for this the whole time. If we lose,  then we lose.

I'm not sure that this is helpful given the going success rate of your tunnels in this game.

Edited November 5, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Mat]

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm not sure that this is helpful given the going success rate of your tunnels in this game.

Oh come on now :P. There’s only one other player who’s also been on every misexe train. And plus, probability-wise each one is more likely to be successful than the last!  

[Araris Valerian]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Oh come on now :P. There’s only one other player who’s also been on every misexe train. And plus, probability-wise each one is more likely to be successful than the last!  

True that. Who knows, maybe if the game lasts a couple more cycles you’ll pick an elim .