Long Game 81: Lasting Integrity?

[Mat]

17 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Yeah I looked it over, Illwei won't announce MYLO, but I'm 99.9% sure it is. Especially in this setup, I suggest we dont lynch anyone cause our POE isn't even that great today.

See this:

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

...Hmm is that maybe a case for not voting today? I guess with 2 elims no. But 5-3, no kill -> 5-3, elim kill -> 4-3

Puts us in the same theoretical position as we are now with one more village flip that likely would just be another low info (though we're running out of those) and if there's two this would be a terrible strategic decision. So disregard that yeah we still should kill today. I don't think we have an especially better chance with one more green.

 

[danex]

1 hour ago, Azmine_king said:

Yeah I looked it over, Illwei won't announce MYLO, but I'm 99.9% sure it is. Especially in this setup, I suggest we dont lynch anyone cause our POE isn't even that great today.

 

43 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

See this:

 

 wait wait wait hol up

my first reaction to these 2 posts was "oh az is sus now they want to skip a vote, it isn't exlo anyway, mat says"
but then
i did something rare and used my brain

assuming worst case scenario,3 elims and we vote off a vil today

D3: 5-3
N3: 4-3
D4: 3-3 we lose

so this is exlo

assuming 3 elims which I thought most of us were?!?!????

Edited October 28, 2021 by Danex

[Azmine_king]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

...Hmm is that maybe a case for not voting today? I guess with 2 elims no. But 5-3, no kill -> 5-3, elim kill -> 4-3

Puts us in the same theoretical position as we are now with one more village flip that likely would just be another low info (though we're running out of those) and if there's two this would be a terrible strategic decision. So disregard that yeah we still should kill today. I don't think we have an especially better chance with one more green.

Bad take...

There's no situation where it makes more sense to lynch today

[danex]

2 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Bad take...

There's no situation where it makes more sense to lynch today

well, if there are 2 elims it would.

worst case scenario with 2 elims

D3: 6-2
N3: 5-2
D4: 4-2  <-exlo
N4: 3-2
D5: 2-2

so if there's 2 elims next cycle is exlo

[Mat]

7 minutes ago, Danex said:

 wait wait wait hol up

 

6 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Bad take...

There's no situation where it makes more sense to lynch today

It's exlo with three elims, so if we kill a villager we lose. If we don't kill anyone, it's still exlo next cycle. Waiting just kills a villager anyway, and one the elims chose to decide. I guess technically it'd be better to wait but I don't see a huge point to it. It's not like the next elim kill will solve the game for us.

Plus, I think there's a chance of 2 elims since the game could have ended N2 with 3. So since (as Danex pointed out) if there's two it makes more sense to kill today and since I think the benefit of waiting isn't much there, I kinda do still think we should exe someone today.

Don't get me wrong though I 100% understand where you're coming from.

Edited October 28, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[danex]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

It's exlo with three elims, so if we kill a villager we lose. If we don't kill anyone, it's still exlo next cycle. Waiting just kills a villager anyway, and one the elims chose to decide. I guess technically it'd be better to wait but I don't see a huge point to it. It's not like the next elim kill will solve the game for us.

well, we would have a bit more available info since we could analyze the NK

I think the elims have more or less run out of low-info targets

so that could be helpful

except they're somewhere in the thread knowing we think that

so they'll kill someone non-strategic to intentionally mislead us

but then they know that so.......now we're in IKYK

 

K, mats right, lets kill someone
 

[Azmine_king]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

 

It's exlo with three elims, so if we kill a villager we lose. If we don't kill anyone, it's still exlo next cycle. Waiting just kills a villager anyway, and one the elims chose to decide. I guess technically it'd be better to wait but I don't see a huge point to it. It's not like the next elim kill will solve the game for us.

Plus, I think there's a chance of 2 elims since the game could have ended N2 with 3. So since (as Danex pointed out) if there's two it makes more sense to kill today and since I think the benefit of waiting isn't much there, I kinda do still think we should exe someone today.

Don't get me wrong though I 100% understand where you're coming from.

You even acknowledge that its "technically" better, yet still argue for the statistically worse option.

And I seriously doubt there's two scum, even in a setup like this

3:8 makes much more sense than 2:8 for a classic 1:3 ratio, if I'm wrong on that I'll take the fault

[danex]

7 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

You even acknowledge that its "technically" better, yet still argue for the statistically worse option.

And I seriously doubt there's two scum, even in a setup like this

3:8 makes much more sense than 2:8 for a classic 1:3 ratio, if I'm wrong on that I'll take the fault

k, now I'm sussing azmine for this. 
Azmine/Lahilt e/e?
Trying to save your teammate?

I guess technically azmine/me e/e would make sense too but lets ignore that

[Mat]

9 minutes ago, Danex said:

k, now I'm sussing azmine for this. 
Azmine/Lahilt e/e?
Trying to save your teammate?

I guess technically azmine/me e/e would make sense too but lets ignore that

No one’s saving anyone with a tie like this

[Azmine_king]

11 minutes ago, Danex said:

k, now I'm sussing azmine for this. 
Azmine/Lahilt e/e?
Trying to save your teammate?

I guess technically azmine/me e/e would make sense too but lets ignore that

There's not even a clear bandwagon, I couldn't even tell you the current votecount without checking. It would be different if someone was at majority or L-1.

[Araris Valerian]

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

Danex (2) - Archer, Lahilt
Lahilt (2) - Araris, TJ
Araris (1) - Danex
TJ (1)- Matrim

LMK if something is wrong with the vc.

I’m voting on Ash, not Lahilt

[Azmine_king]

3 hours ago, Illwei said:

Danex (2) - Archer, Lahilt
Lahilt (2) - Araris, TJ
Araris (1) - Danex
TJ (1)- Matrim

LMK if something is wrong with the vc.

I just saw this post... Hm

Doesn't change anything at all though, good work guys

[Archer]

Quote

If TJ is village, then the elims probably split their votes D1. And probably both voted Mage D2. That would make me think one of Mat/Ash is elim. And then one of Danex/Lahilt. The elims have been killing people that didn't vote for either Mage or TJ, so that makes me think TJ and Azmine are less likely to be elim.

This take by Araris sounds right enough that I'm putting him down as village, and I'll go along with Az probably not being too. Plus they weren't on last Night so they're the theoretical less catchable elim. TJ is still village to me. 

I don't think e!Danex would explicitly collude with e!Mat, so I'm calling them not e-e. My pool is Dannex or Mat, and Ash, and Lahilt. The value play is one of Lahilt or Ash, but I had Lahilt down as more suspicious when I did my Night reads. 

[ashwastaken]

Ok it looks like people are suspicious of me (by people I’m mean mostly Matrim) because of my erratic playstyle but I can assure you I do in fact have an alignment. Also, I copied and pasted the players list for my reads list, so my reads list wasn’t ordered in any way. Currently I’m actually suspicious of people who I found a bit off d1, which I guess is interesting?

Can someone give me a small tl;dr of wether or not we should lynch this cycle?

[Lahilt]

I do not want to lynch Araris due to how the lynch formed on them earlier to counter a the lynch on me.

Archer: feels village

Matrims Dice: unsure possibly either one 

Ashwastaken: erratic playstyle has not yet contributed too much

Azmine_King very unsure about this one.

Danex giving me Elim vibes earlier this round (this could be a bit of tunneling)

TJ this seems to me like the best lynch for info as an ETJ would give info on myself and Danex. they have not posted too much more than the bare minimum too stay alive and have not given great reasons for their votes. Very Elimish 

Ordered by who I would prefer lynching.

 

[Mat]

9 minutes ago, ashwastaken said:

Ok it looks like people are suspicious of me (by people I’m mean mostly Matrim)

And the person voting you

10 minutes ago, ashwastaken said:

but I can assure you I do in fact have an alignment.

I'm not exactly arguing against this

10 minutes ago, ashwastaken said:

Also, I copied and pasted the players list for my reads list, so my reads list wasn’t ordered in any way.

I don't recall anyone saying anything was weird about the order of your reads list but ok

11 minutes ago, ashwastaken said:

Currently I’m actually suspicious of people who I found a bit off d1, which I guess is interesting?

That seems normal to me? No?

11 minutes ago, ashwastaken said:

Can someone give me a small tl;dr of wether or not we should lynch this cycle?

Should I c/p my post again, or...?

*Adds this post to the list of ash posts that give me bad vibes*

Also, for the record, I actively will choose no kill over Lahilt kill

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Also, for the record, I actively will choose no kill over Lahilt kill

Why? Do you not think Ash/Lahilt is a valid elim team, based on the voting D1?

[|TJ|]

12 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• I feel like TJ voting ash at the end of D2 is more elimmy than not. But there could be so many opinions on what that looks like. I think that an elim wouldn't want to jump on the train late (especially TJ, who hadn't posted anything in awhile) and would want to get cred for not killing a villager. Now the question would be if e!TJ would vote a teammate there...

Having been inactive for D1 and N1 I had the luxury of not getting tunneled on Mage, and as such couldn't find a good reason you were voting for them other than the fact that they couldn't get voted out D1. There was still around 18 hours when I voted on ash, hoping to take the discussion in another direction but no one budged. If I was an elim, I'd have at least tried to come on for a few minutes and vote on D1 no matter how busy I was since there's a lot more sense of obligation being an elim than being a villager. And my vote wouldn't even have been seen as suspicious since it could have been written off as self-preservation.

11 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

If TJ is village, then the elims probably split their votes D1. And probably both voted Mage D2. That would make me think one of Mat/Ash is elim. And then one of Danex/Lahilt. The elims have been killing people that didn't vote for either Mage or TJ, so that makes me think TJ and Azmine are less likely to be elim.

Exactly what I said in the last couple of my posts smh. 

11 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

So my elim teams are Ash/TJ, Ash/Danex, Ash/Lahilt, Mat/Danex, and Mat/Lahilt. So while I'm still happy with Lahilt, I'm going to switch to Ash for now.

Are you thinking of a two-person team? If so, what about Mat/Ash?

I really wanna vote Mat smh. Votes on Araris and me are bizarre choices for this cycles. 

[ashwastaken]

1. Araris - Tresspasser's will

my gut read on them was elim, and I steel sort it feel like that.

2. Archer - Spren 10

I read them as village based on again mostly gut reads and little things? *shrug*

3. Ash - Oak

gave up on doing in-depth reads, which is sad. not much. Null-.

4. Azmine

gut read says elim, head says null+

5. Danex

sort of elim you vibes, maybe? Haven’t been really analyzing their posts.

6. Lahilt

Hmmmm null-??

8. Matrim - 

tunneled on mage so slight elim point there, 

10. Tj 

village?? Null+, probably.

 

sorry I gave up on doing in depth reads.

my elim pool: mat, araris, danex, azmine

I’d be happy to be the villager we lynch this round if it gives you guys info, but I’m not sure how much info it would give,

Oh also I only started claiming elim after I’d already read myself so my first read of myself is village.

[Araris Valerian]

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Are you thinking of a two-person team? If so, what about Mat/Ash?

I really wanna vote Mat smh. Votes on Araris and me are bizarre choices for this cycles. 

If it’s a 2-person team with Mat then probably Mat/Lahilt, based on Mat’s strong position towards voting off Lahilt that isn’t really justified.

Also, to @Azmine_king and @Matrim's Dice who are considering stalling, the elims can do the same. Just not send in a NK. Why would they, if it only helps us narrow our POE?

I think at this point everyone should list who they are willing to vote for so we can work toward a consensus. I’ve done a complete about face and am pretty suspicious of Mat now, in agreement with TJ, so I’m willing to vote on Mat, Ash, or Lahilt. That would be my guess for a 3 person elim team.

Edit: Looking at the suspicions people have posted, I’m pretty sure we can get a majority vote against Mat, maybe against Ash, probably not Lahilt.

Edited October 29, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Archer]

1 hour ago, ashwastaken said:

I’d be happy to be the villager we lynch this round if it gives you guys info, but I’m not sure how much info it would give,

This is a bad attitude to have at exlo, and that's pinging my elimdar. However, I think Mat and Lahilt have both expressed suspicions of Ashw, so I'm wary that that's their preffered mix. 

I'm still at where I was yesterday, eyeing Mat or Dannex, Ash, and Lahilt. TJ's vote, given his timezone, is probably going to stick? So I'm a little worried about that. And Dannex seems pro-Mat, so either way we're probably going to have a villager dissenting. If Az, Araris, and one of Dannex or TJ all come to a concensus, I'd be willing to move my vote to get the majority. 

Wait hang on. We need 5 votes to exe today, ya? Which is the entire village. That complicates things. I'll see where everyone else is at, then move if needbe. Lahilt is still a good pick, IMO though. Just putting it out there. 

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, to @Azmine_king and @Matrim's Dice who are considering stalling, the elims can do the same. Just not send in a NK. Why would they, if it only helps us narrow our POE?

? I’m arguing against not stalling

Though I guess I said the thing about Lahilt. Yeah idk

Ash? I want to have an exe that works

[Araris Valerian]

I'm going to switch my vote back from Lahilt to Ash. I kinda want to vote Mat, but I think Ash/Mat is a reasonable elim team, or Ash/Mat/Lahilt if there are 3, so I'd lean towards getting more support than being picky between the 3.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm going to switch my vote back from Lahilt to Ash. I kinda want to vote Mat, but I think Ash/Mat is a reasonable elim team, or Ash/Mat/Lahilt if there are 3, so I'd lean towards getting more support than being picky between the 3.

What do you think about me voting Ash, then?

My team would be Ash/TJ or Ash/TJ/you though. So this question could be fired right back at me.

[Araris Valerian]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

What do you think about me voting Ash, then?

My team would be Ash/TJ or Ash/TJ/you though. So this question could be fired right back at me.