Long Game 76: At the Forests of Madness

[Ashbringer he/him]

I did too follow the thread, Shard...

[Mat he/him]

14 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Sorry, @Matrim's Dice I don’t even follow the logic there. How was any of that indicative of my alignment?

Huh?

First paragraph: Seems like you could have been an elim Randby voter, based on the late timing which I think an elim would be more likely to do. Then, you (lightly) suggested that there might not be an elim on the Randby train at all. The part about one of your theoretical teammates being on Randby as well was an aside that only matters if you actually flip elim.

Second paragraph: Tangent. You're welcome. Unrelated to me voting you.

Performative bits are nitpicky but still there- trying to appear helpful/happy at good outcomes.

Edit:

11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I did too follow the thread, Shard...

@Illwei here's your AshElimTell™  

Edited May 1, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Illwei]

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Illwei here's your AshElimTell

I WAS JUST READING UP AND WAS ABOUT TO CALL THIS OUT LMAO

[Ashbringer he/him]

It only counts as an Elim tell when it's longer than 30 minutes!

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

TODAY, I EDITED A PODCAST. FOR THE 22ND TIME. it was hard. :<

lol I just wanted someone to brag about this to

it's not easy ;-;

---

ANYWAY, until further evidence presents itself, my suspicions are still on Quinn. HOWEVER, this is a very light suspicion, and this is only my opinion because a better one has not presented itself.

I'm not sure if I will be able to be active on Sat. or Sun. so for now, my vote is Quinn.

[Illwei]

30 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

It only counts as an Elim tell when it's longer than 30 minutes!

:thinking:

hmmmmmmmmmm :P. 

Also mat, I follow your reasoning and slightly agree, but especially your presentation feels village to me. I can't quite explain it, and it's a bad read, but especially this part:

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And aha! later in that same post:

Quote

As for me, I don’t regret it, though I would have been happier had we gotten an Elim of course. Wouldn’t have given us more information but it would have thinned their team.

There's the performative bit I remember

EDIT:

Also waitasecond

Anyone

can

take

actions?

 

...

cool. I knew this. yeah. I did. 

Edited May 1, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential she/her]

Okay well in case it wasn't obvious from my post last turn, I'm putting my vote on Szeth, though after the stuff that Mat has pointed out which I myself didn't read very carefully I'm a bit wary of of Jon too. And @Illwei I don't think it's just you, Mat's post felt vil to me as well. 

[Jondesu he/him]

53 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Okay well in case it wasn't obvious from my post last turn, I'm putting my vote on Szeth, though after the stuff that Mat has pointed out which I myself didn't read very carefully I'm a bit wary of of Jon too. And @Illwei I don't think it's just you, Mat's post felt vil to me as well. 

Wait, you’re wary of me because of Mat’s post, but his post also made you wary of him? Why don’t we just test him and see where it goes?

I’m not one for retribution votes, but Mat feels like he’s reaching. Matrim’s Dice 

[Quintessential she/her]

18 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Wait, you’re wary of me because of Mat’s post, but his post also made you wary of him? Why don’t we just test him and see where it goes?

No no his post made me read him village : P

[Elandera she/her]

@Azmine_king and @PizzaPower55, if you do not post this turn you will be replaced by a pinch-hitter!

As a reminder to everyone else, please mark the beginning of D2 in PMs before you start PMing each other again. Thank you for helping keep your GM sane! or as sane as possible, since true sanity is already gone

[Mat he/him]

49 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Wait, you’re wary of me because of Mat’s post, but his post also made you wary of him? Why don’t we just test him and see where it goes?

I’m not one for retribution votes, but Mat feels like he’s reaching. Matrim’s Dice 

:P. This isn't helping my read of you.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Okay, we killed someone quiet, and lost a poet. @PizzaPower55, @Flyingbooks, @Dannex, y'all were pretty quiet last cycle, and didn't vote. Who would you say is a better option for a grinch today than yourselves? I don't really want to burn a second cycle of voting on a low active player, but that doesn't mean a lack of contribution doesn't make you suspicious.

I'm not super sure I agree with Mat's line of reasoning on Jondesu, but I do buy (for now) that Mat is honestly looking for elims. I think a late vote during D1 can flip either way, and at least some vote is better than no vote. I do agree that the comment about the number of elims voting for Randby is a bit odd, but I also know that villagers like to try and use this sort of reasoning sometimes. Quinn in LG!Kas comes to mind. Of course, I tried to make similar assumptions in the last LG and almost got burned pretty badly as a result.

I guess, aside from the inactives, the person I'd like to hear most from is Azmine. I'd also like to hear more from Jondesu than a retaliatory vote on someone that seems village to me.

[Quintessential she/her]

37 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I guess, aside from the inactives, the person I'd like to hear most from is Azmine. I'd also like to hear more from Jondesu than a retaliatory vote on someone that seems village to me.

Wait, why Azmine? 

[Mat he/him]

I stand by my super-village read of Azmine until I have a reason not to.

Though... I would have thought they’d have shown up by now. @Azmine_king, why’d you go insane?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Azmine didn't have a final vote in last cycle, went insane (which must have some kind of explanation behind it), and, as Matrim pointed out, hasn't shown up yet.

Edit: To clarify further, I was looking at the list of players that didn't vote last cycle. Azmine was the last person on that list for me to address. Also, @Matrim's Dice, could you either clarify that super-village read or link me to a post where you have already done so? C2 seems rather early for that sort of thing.

Edited May 1, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Azmine_king]

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

@Azmine_king and @PizzaPower55, if you do not post this turn you will be replaced by a pinch-hitter!

I thought I was active enough D1?

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Though... I would have thought they’d have shown up by now. @Azmine_king, why’d you go insane?

I fell asleep quite early last night and tend to wake up late, I just got unlucky with unforgettable horrors, I haven't done anything that would increase my odds of going insane.

[Elandera she/her]

1 minute ago, Azmine_king said:

I thought I was active enough D1?

The rule is at least one post every two turns (72 hours). I try to ping anyone who didn't post the turn before. 

[Azmine_king]

Uh, I think it was completely lost on me that you can post during the night? So I'm going to go read that discussion and the one page we have here.

[Illwei]

20 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Uh, I think it was completely lost on me that you can post during the night? So I'm going to go read that discussion and the one page we have here.

Vil slip accepted, welcome to towncore.

[Archer he/him]

Someone remind me to start responding to posts before the old threads are locked. 

How am I simultaneously "playing high visibility" and "flying under the radar"? -Ashbringer

As was said, you’ve the fifth highest post count, but in C1, the only evaluations you made were sussing Araris and poking Randby. It seems like an elim play to actively engage in the conversation without making enemies or being memorable. (Case in point, Quinn thinking you were inactive.) I'm curious to see who you think killed Gears, and if you've got any more reads. 

Szeth only had the most votes when they were tied with me and Dannex. e!Vonne could easily have felt that e!Szeth was safe and that the vote was worth it for distancing. -Quinn

“Most votes” equalled two for most of C1, any vote is one random gut read from a villager away from being troublesome. I think the elims would have tried to avoid voting for each other D1, especially once a lot of people had one vote on them.

What are the notable quotables for? -Quinn

Besides reads, those were the most potentially revealing statements from the round.

In that case, Archer, I would point out that while Araris is known for sticking to his guns, he's also known for CCing. -Quinn

Fair enough. I’m leaning village on Araris right now because they posted some reads this round, though if they only stab this game, I’ll be sus.

This suggestion might be a bit too late to matter tonight, but I recommend that most of us should use Discover the Hidden spread across many targets so that we have a good chance of catching the elims in the act. -Flyingbooks

^ this. I assumed everyone would do this, but in case you missed it, we have a good chance of catching elims by action scanning at night when one of them is submitting the kill. At the very least, if you find someone doing something else, we can use process of elimination to narrow down our suspect pool. We have a confirmed good role in the game, we could probably coordinate through them if they feel like revealing themselves. Silence could protect them, if this game genuinely has a bodyguard role. *glares at former GM Mat*

I’m not one for retribution votes, but Mat feels like he’s reaching. Matrim’s Dice -Jondesu

I have decided that Jondesu and Mat are not e-e. They’ve been at each others’ throats too much. Which means I believe their scans.

Vil slip accepted, welcome to towncore.-Illwei

Agreed. I’ll join team v!Azmine. We also know they aren't Danforth now. 

 

As for the Gears kill, they survived the last QF and MR, and they’re a hard guy to mis-exe and can be scary with their ISOs. I had them fourth on my list of predicted kills. Their death indicates this game had more than one scribe, as they used their action D1 to submit a secret vote, not a note for publication. That's interesting, because Randby's flip revealed we do have vanillas, although everyone appears to have one item. 

[Quintessential she/her]

25 minutes ago, Archer said:

Agreed. I’ll join team v!Azmine. We also know they aren't Danforth now. 

Hey, really terrible plan: the person with the crossbow coordinates with a Silence to figure out who they think Danforth is, then attacks that person while the Silence saves them. If the person doesn't go insane, they must be Danforth! don't listen to me there are so many reasons that plan doesn't make sense

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Vil slip accepted, welcome to towncore.

Yeah, I think that’s enough to remove my vote from Azmine for now. I suppose it’s possible that e!Azmine just never thought to ask any teammates about night posting, or that Azmine is just lying (which would be odd to do here), but that’s not worth messing with D2. Bother. Maybe everyone should vote on me so I can get upset and then accidentally start a train on an elim. I think I’m going to take a closer look at Ash and Illwei and see what I feel about them. Kinda wish more people were talking though.

[Archer he/him]

Speaking of crossbows, if Elandera and TUO decided to keep it in the game, we're all assuming it'd go to a villager, right? So between the Professor, the crossbow holder, and Silence, we may have three people we can mechanically clear. Maybe if things go badly and we enter C3 with a 7:4 ratio, we could have them come forward and rule three people out? With village reads to supplement them, that dramatically narrows the field of suspects. The only catch is I'm not sure we hit a high enough threshold for the crossbow to be included. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

Speaking of crossbows, if Elandera and TUO decided to keep it in the game, we're all assuming it'd go to a villager, right? So between the Professor, the crossbow holder, and Silence, we may have three people we can mechanically clear. Maybe if things go badly and we enter C3 with a 7:4 ratio, we could have them come forward and rule three people out? With village reads to supplement them, that dramatically narrows the field of suspects. The only catch is I'm not sure we hit a high enough threshold for the crossbow to be included. 

I don't think I've given enough thought to the distribution of this game to make a super educated comment here, but whatever. I guess the risk is assuming we have 3 mechanically confirmed roles in the game. Cause 2 of them claiming would probably be worse than none claiming. There could also be some weird distribution with multiple extra lives and an elim Crossbow or something. But this is definitely something to keep in mind if we misgrinch again today.

[Quintessential she/her]

I don't know about worrying that not all those roles exist, especially since Mat just did that last LG, but I have some other concerns:

What if an elim who's fairly trusted claims to have a crossbow? Presumably, we wouldn't ask for claims before exe-lo, which means they don't even need to prove they have one, because by the time they could prove it, we'd have lost. And for all we know, there are two crossbows out there, so if two people claim crossbow, who's to say they're not both telling the truth? The same exact problem exists for the Silence as well.

And what if the elims actually do have a Silence? I mean, everyone's been saying they don't think that's the case, but it's not like it's normal for elims to have a chance of randomly dying, and it's not abnormal for elims to have a protection role, so now that I'm thinking about it, I guess I don't see why they couldn't have a Silence.

Professor Dyer, at least, is probably a safe bet, since there's only one of him. An elim claiming Dyer would immediately prompt a counterclaim from the real Dyer, assuming that person hadn't already claimed, which would narrow the field down to two people, one of whom is elim. That would be a pretty risky game for the elims to play, I think, so I doubt they'd do that. But I'm not sure how comfortable I am using crossbow and Silence claims to clear people, at least not unless they have enough time to prove them first.

Edited May 1, 2021 by Quintessential