Long Game 76: At the Forests of Madness

[Archer he/him]

I scanned Vonnegut last night and found they had submitted no action. I PMed them offering to trade the results of our scans (not yet revealing who I'd targeted) and they just got back to me saying they missed the fact that anyone could scan and hadn't done anything at all. That's a pretty villager thing to miss, and honest too. I know we're village reading a lot of people for basically incompetence, but hey, surely scans would be a thing the elims would have talked about, right? 

I think I'll throw a vote on Pizza. 

[PizzaPower55 he/him]

3 hours ago, Archer said:

I know we're village reading a lot of people for basically incompetence, but hey, surely scans would be a thing the elims would have talked about, right? 

I think I'll throw a vote on Pizza. 

oh, ive realized that if i dont say anything i cant defend myself

oof

6 hours ago, PizzaPower55 said:

guys im gonna post something real soon im just reading through stuff

i really dont know what to say, i haven't drawn any real conclusions and im still slightly confused by the amount of rules

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, vonnegut said:

Can you further explain this?  I would have thought that an Elim would be MORE likely to not post during the night at all, because they'd be busy scheming with the other Elims.  

Az comes from a standard mafia background, where you can't post during the night. The fact he didn't, and then was surprised when he got a warning for not posting reads village to me because he would know. Maybe he's just exaggerating for the village points, but I'll go with genuine right now.

1 hour ago, vonnegut said:

The votes so far today are... interesting.  And make me worry.  The "you voted for me, so I'll vote for YOU" stuff seems like village paranoia, and makes me wonder if there are any Elim involved in it at all.  Again I don't know the personalities... but y'all have been doing this for a long time, so would an Elim really be that reactive, rather than playing it cool?  

i feel like it more depends on the context of the response I feel. Like voting in retaliation just like *snap* reads a bit more village than mounting a full case against your attacker.

1 hour ago, vonnegut said:

is who was feeling the most heat right before everyone suddenly started voting for Randby?

Kwinny

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ooooh I like this line of thinking. Have a village read for this line of thinking.

Hm. This is a quick village read for standard analysis methinks.

15 minutes ago, Archer said:

and they just got back to me saying they missed the fact that anyone could scan and hadn't done anything at all.

 HAHA VONNE SAME LOL

Az seemed kinda sus of me when I told him I didn't take an action I THOUGHT I COULDN'T LOL.

10 minutes ago, PizzaPower55 said:

i really dont know what to say, i haven't drawn any real conclusions and im still slightly confused by the amount of rules

Mood.

Edited May 2, 2021 by Illwei

[Archer he/him]

25 minutes ago, PizzaPower55 said:

i really dont know what to say, i haven't drawn any real conclusions and im still slightly confused by the amount of rules

Do you want to share your role/item inventory? 

If you were on an elim team, what would you have thought about when deciding who to kill last night? 

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Az seemed kinda sus of me when I told him I didn't take an action I THOUGHT I COULDN'T LOL.

You only get half village points for that because I can imagine a scenario where you have the Elim doc so off topic that you all forgot about scans. (Also, whoever submitted the kill has to cover for their action somehow, so we can't clear everyone who forgets. But I'm still village reading Illwei) 

New theory: the Gears kill was to stop the rules guy from reminding everyone of important things. Well played, elims

Edit: also, Random tinfoil, maybe Flyingbooks talked about scans last night as a bluff so people wouldn't target them with a scan so they could submit the kill! 

Edited May 2, 2021 by Archer

[PizzaPower55 he/him]

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

Do you want to share your role/item inventory? 

expeditioner, no items (although anyone would say this so i dont think this helps)

 

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

If you were on an elim team, what would you have thought about when deciding who to kill last night? 

i would just kill someone that seemed innocent so sus villagers get voted

Edited May 2, 2021 by PizzaPower55

[Azmine_king]

2 hours ago, vonnegut said:

Can you further explain this?  I would have thought that an Elim would be MORE likely to not post during the night at all, because they'd be busy scheming with the other Elims. 

Explaining this further makes it seems like I want town points, but on top of what Illwei said as a new player another scum probably would've informed me to post during night or it at least would've come up in chat.

[Illwei]

39 minutes ago, Archer said:

You only get half village points for that because I can imagine a scenario where you have the Elim doc so off topic that you all forgot about scans.

Good thing Kas or TJ arent in this game to tell you that I might be so forgetful as to not submit an Elim kill even. Yes. Give me those village points :P. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

(I did follow the thread, I was just busy all day. Sorry.)

 

Alright, let's see what we can do.

Matrim - Azmine - Illwei - Archer - Quinn - Szeth - Dannex - Jondesu - Ash - Araris - Vonne - Pizza - Books

Pizza and Books were inactive, and I don't think Vonne or Azmine would be leading the kill action due to newness. (I'm not scratching out Szeth here due to their activity level.)

Matrim - Illwei - Archer - Quinn - Szeth - Dannex - Jondesu - Ash - Araris 

... well. Where do I go from here... 

Gears was a low-info kill. But it was also a Gears kill, where Gears has been killed D1/N1 a... fair number of times. LG71 he was killed N1 by Araris, who thought he recognized his writing style in the Hemalurgist Doc. So it's also possible that his style was recognized by a player as the Scribe, and was taken out to avoid their increased scans...

I don't think Szeth or Jondesu would recognize Gears's writing... Jondesu would probably be more willing to kill Gears N1 than most, but I'll take him off.

Matrim - Illwei - Archer - Quinn - Dannex - Ash - Araris 

This is somewhat why I don't like doing these, it it turns into "the medium experience players" real quick. But I'll limit to what I look at tomorrow.

 

Note that Dannex is the only one who called out (in thread) the Scribe note. 

 

Does anyone want to confirm if Mat targeted Jondesu / vice versa?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I guess I’m going to vote on Jondesu. I don’t like that he hasn’t really responded to the pressure on him except to try and discount the players voting for him. This is sort of a placeholder vote, since I was busy and still haven’t looked at stuff from Ash and Illwei yet. I’ll be back in 3 hours or so and hopefully have more to say. I just wanted to have a vote out to prompt some discussion in the meantime.

@PizzaPower55, for now I’d suggest ignoring the majority of the rules and just pick someone you think is suspicious to vote on. If you don’t find anyone suspicious, see if you agree with reasoning someone has given. And if that fails, vote someone at random. Any of those things will be helpful.

[Mat he/him]

 

10 hours ago, Illwei said:

Hm. This is a quick village read for standard analysis methinks.

Maybe, but

1. vonne is newer, so your standard might not be hers
2. I sure didn't think of it

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

Good thing Kas or TJ arent in this game to tell you that I might be so forgetful as to not submit an Elim kill even. Yes. Give me those village points :P. 

I somewhat doubt you'd ever forget the elim kill :P. 

7 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Does anyone want to confirm if Mat targeted Jondesu / vice versa?

I mean, we did... both me and Jondesu will and can say that so unless you think we're e/e for some reason there's no reason to doubt it :P.

[Illwei]

32 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

somewhat doubt you'd ever forget the elim kill :P. 

You wsnna check the spreadsheet for MR49, and then get back to me agsin? :P.

EDIT: Danex i dont understand how you manage to play completely from your phone sometimes .

Edited May 2, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential she/her]

Unsolicited and probably accurate VC:

Jondesu (3): Matrim, Quinn, Araris
Quinn (1): Szeth
Matrim (1): Jondesu
Szeth (1): Azmine
Pizza (1): Archer

So I have no idea what to do here. My Jondesu vote was partly because Mat had some fair points about them, but also partly because I wanted something to happen... which it did... sort of? But not really. Their response isn't making me feel better about them, but I'm also still suspicious of Szeth and kinda wanna move my vote back to them, now that someone else is voting them too... and then I have this nagging feeling in the back of my head that voting either of them would be wrong, which I think is coming from the fact that as far as I can tell, the vast majority of the resistance to voting them has come from them, and no one else, so it feels like they don't have a team backing them up.

Hmmm maybe writing down who I think is village will help.

Vonne and Azmine both vil-slipped this turn, and I don't really feel like indulging my paranoid side and continuing to suspect them atm.

Archer and Illwei have both felt village in-thread and, in Archer's case, in PMs. I don't really think I can see either of them being elim right now.

Matrim... idk, we seem to be agreeing on a lot? And as Araris (I think it was Araris?) said, Mat at least appears to be genuinely looking for elims. So... I guess I think he's village too.

So that leaves Szeth, Dannex, Jondesu, Ash, Araris, Pizza, and Books. This is where it gets hard, ig. Books and Pizza have said basically nothing, and I don't want another CC, since the last one basically gave us no info. Ash... has been saying a lot but literally none of it has stuck in my brain, which maybe is just me being tired and distracted by irl stuff but I don't think that's normal with v!Ash? Hmmm. Ash is a Hmmm. Dannex is actually in the same boat as Ash, except that I don't think Dannex has said nearly as much... honestly voting Dannex feels like CCing too. Jondesu and Szeth have both done vaguely sus things imo (as explained by Mat and myself, respectively), so I'm most inclined to vote one of them, but like I said before, it feels like the vast majority of the resistance to those arguments has come from the people being attacked. Which I guess is the whole reason I'm doing this in the first place, instead of just voting one of them. And then Araris felt off D1 and I was sus of him and I guess I haven't really stopped but I also don't want a repeat of LG75, so I'm hesitant to vote him unless and until I have more reason than tone. 

I... yeah y'know what, Ash (Jondesu).

I'd give reasoning if I really had any, but I guess it's just that so far Ash's efforts have felt kinda lackluster, and he's been posting a lot but I don't remember much of any of what he's said (I should definitely go back and reread at some point, but apparently I lack the motivation rn).

[vonnegut she/her]

I keep waiting for Szeth to say something, but they've gone from "I will talk about anything all day, la la la, maybe I suspect THIS person, maybe I suspect THAT person" to.... has to eat dinner and never return.

I'm going to be around here and there today, so this might change, but right now my vote is Szeth.  And I think that Jondesu is probably village.  After all the discussion last day phase, we had a "let's all hop on Jondesu" moment and then we've stalled out and it seems much quieter.  If Jondesu were mob, I think that there would be more discussion prompted, somehow, to try to deflect-- but there isn't, and it feels wrong.

Szeth was feeling heat last day, and then Randby seemed to happen late in the day out of the blue to deflect.  Szeth was being questioned again early in today's phase, and then pulled vanishing act and now it's all about Jondesu.  It's bugging me.  

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

14 hours ago, vonnegut said:

Hello thread.  Thank you for not being as long to read as the previous one.

Can you further explain this?  I would have thought that an Elim would be MORE likely to not post during the night at all, because they'd be busy scheming with the other Elims.  

 

The votes so far today are... interesting.  And make me worry.  The "you voted for me, so I'll vote for YOU" stuff seems like village paranoia, and makes me wonder if there are any Elim involved in it at all.  Again I don't know the personalities... but y'all have been doing this for a long time, so would an Elim really be that reactive, rather than playing it cool?  

However, both the people who I've found to be shady based on tone (Mat and Szeth), are both involved in it with different people :/ 

Something else that occurs to me in light of the Randby vote, is who was feeling the most heat right before everyone suddenly started voting for Randby?  I need to go back and re-read, but if anyone has that info at their fingertips, that would be helpful...

Hi Szeth.  I'm worried that I'm reading too much into tone and focusing too much on you in my head.  

Convince me that I'm wrong.

 

Ok, so I haven’t played any forum mafia before, but usually when I’m playing a similar game, like among us, I tend to come across as very chill and laid back. This can lead to people thinking me suspicious and voting me out. It’s basically just my playstyle. Whether I’m elim or not, my tone tends to attract suspicion.

Also, regarding @vonnegut’s newest post, it’s a little bit harder for me to be active on the weekends than it is on the weekdays. I know it seems like a convenient move for elim!me to go for an inactive spell right when suspicions are building up against me, but I promise it’s just a coincidence. I will be more active starting tomorrow.

Edited May 2, 2021 by Szeth_Pancakes

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Okay, so looking at Ash and Illwei as promised, I definitely am more suspicious of Illwei than of Ash. Actually I feel like Ash played C1 very similar to how I often do. An early vote on someone not saying much, and he stuck to his guns when Randby became the final choice. Illwei, on the other hand, ran for the hills, so to speak, when the Randby train picked up. Both Illwei and Books mentioned that they were fairly sure Randby would flip village, but neither of them offered up a serious alternative. Basically feels like an insincere attempt at trying to get village cred. So I'm fine having my vote where it is now, but I'd also be down for an Illwei grinch as well. Or Books, who still hasn't really given us much to work with, except for that one post which I don't like.

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Also, regarding @vonnegut’s newest post, it’s a little bit harder for me to be active on the weekends than it is on the weekdays. I know it seems like a convenient move for elim!me to go for an inactive spell right when suspicions are building up against me, but I promise it’s just a coincidence. I will be more active starting tomorrow.

(This looks like a good opportunity for blue text )

22 hours ago, Archer said:

How am I simultaneously "playing high visibility" and "flying under the radar"? -Ashbringer

As was said, you’ve the fifth highest post count, but in C1, the only evaluations you made were sussing Araris and poking Randby. It seems like an elim play to actively engage in the conversation without making enemies or being memorable. (Case in point, Quinn thinking you were inactive.) I'm curious to see who you think killed Gears, and if you've got any more reads. 

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

I... yeah y'know what, Ash (Jondesu).

I'd give reasoning if I really had any, but I guess it's just that so far Ash's efforts have felt kinda lackluster, and he's been posting a lot but I don't remember much of any of what he's said (I should definitely go back and reread at some point, but apparently I lack the motivation rn).

... this does fit, I think.

I'm still very busy. School's out in two weeks and I've got a lot of stuff due that I... also lack the motivation to do. However, as a player, I'm pointedly trying to not play the same way I did the last two games, where busy-ness meant I just did nothing and let the game wash by me, because 1) it sucked, and 2) as either a villager or an elim doing the same strategy as the last two (Elim) games is a fantastic way to get myself executed.

So I'm trying to post more, at least be more active in the conversation, more... social? But not necessarily investing several hours into writing up suspicions. 

 

So let's fix that, shall we?

Matrim - Illwei - Archer - Quinn - Dannex - Ash - Araris

Matrim, Illwei, and Araris were around for Gears's strain of multi-deaths. Archer, Quinn, and Dannex were not.

Matrim, Illwei, Araris, and Quinn would likely recognize Gears' writing style. Archer and Dannex would be less likely to.

I don't think Dannex would kill Gears thinking he was the Scribe, as Dannex specifically talked about both Gears and the Scribe. I feel like Elim!Dannex would be setting up for a misexe on Gears rather than kill him.

Matrim PM'd me at night asking if I was the Scribe. (For reference, a similar thing happened in MR48 where I was the (Elim) Anon-poster, using my Lamentation voice which is rather similar to Gears'.) I didn't respond to it, as I didn't realize you couldn't PM spy during the Night... so it's possible that Mat deduced he was misreading Gears as Lament!Ash.

Quinn probably knows Gears best of the post-LG71 players - she would recognize Gears's style but not know (as much) of Gears repeatedly dying early. 

Illwei didn't PM Gears D1. That doesn't really tell us much.

Archer is likely a null. He's been Elim with Gears before, but again that doesn't say much.

Araris did mistakenly kill Gears thinking he read his style elsewhere. Not sure if that would make Araris more hesitant to do that again or not.

 

So I think the most likely order of likely Gears Killers is Matrim / Quinn > Araris > Illwei / Archer > Dannex. If I had to stick myself in there I'd probably be with Illwei/Archer, unless you'd accept the defense that I was very looking forward to RP'ing alongside Roko on Threnody.

[Mat he/him]

29 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Matrim PM'd me at night asking if I was the Scribe. (For reference, a similar thing happened in MR48 where I was the (Elim) Anon-poster, using my Lamentation voice which is rather similar to Gears'.) I didn't respond to it, as I didn't realize you couldn't PM spy during the Night... so it's possible that Mat deduced he was misreading Gears as Lament!Ash.

...Ash, if you’re going off the assumption that Gears was killed because his writing style was guessed from the Scribe note, why on earth am I the first choice?  You said it yourself, I thought it was you. I took your silence as a light form of confirmation.

Course we don’t even know if that’s the reason Gears was killed in the first place. For all we know it was random :P.

[dannnex male]

Mmmk

things seem to have kinda slowed down

so here’s a read list to maybe provoke some discussion

1. Matrim’s Dice- Vil. Seems like you’re actually trying to solve the game, and most of your reasoning is sound.
    
2. Azmine_king- Null/Mild Elim. That bit about not knowing you can talk at night just seems kinda weird. But then I don’t see what an Elim would gain from claiming that either, so Null-ish for you.
    
3. Illwei- Elim. Upon reviewing some of illwei’s posts, they seem to not really be saying much. Definitely seems less active than usual, like maybe they aren’t really trying to solve the game. Most of their posts seem to be banter or direct responses to other things, no unprovoked analysis.
    
4. Archer- Vil. Haven’t seen much from archer that I’d consider AI, but they do seem to be genuinely trying to solve the game, so tentative vil read from me. The bit about not using PMs for anything other than RP seems a liiiiittle bit weird, as if they feel like they don’t need PMs this game, but that’s not necessarily AI. 
    
5. Quintessential- Mild Vil. Quinn also seems to be just a bit less active than usual, but they way they’ve been questioning things and contributing to the discussion makes me lean Vil. 
    
6. Szeth_Pancakes- Null. Haven’t seen a ton from Szeth that I’d consider AI, so null for now. I’d need to go back through their posts for a more acurrate read. 
    
7. Dannex- Confirmed Vil. Just, the most vil. So completely and utterly vil. Never seen anyone as vil as this fellow. 
    
8. Jondesu- Confused. Definitely need to look at you more, can’t seem to get any sort of stable read on you. 
    
9. Ashbringer- Null. Kinda falling into the same camp as Illwei, (e.g. lotta posts, little content in those posts) but I haven’t done enough of a review to feel comfortable reading you Elim.
    
10. Araris Valerian- Mild Elim. This might be more of a tone/gut read. Some of Araris’s posts just feel kinda off. Don’t feel comfortable acting on this read though, not until I can pinpoint why Araris feels weird. 
     
11. Vonnegut- Confused. It’s always hard for me to get a read on people I haven’t played with before, but I think you’re feeling semi-vil? Maybe?
     
12. PizzaPower55- Null. Too inactive to get a read. 
     
13. Flyingbooks- Null/ Very Mild Vil. Not a lot of posts to read, but what I’ve seen feel kinda vil. I think. 

Conclusion: Ima need to reread a lot of things to solidify a lot of these. For now I’m most confident throwing a vote on Illwei.

[Mat he/him]

Wait hold up, just took a look at my notes-

• Jondesu (2): Mat, Araris
• Mat (1): Jondesu
• Quinn (1): Szeth
• Pizza (1): Archer
• Ash (1): Quinn
• Szeth (1): vonnegut, (Azmine)
• Illwei (1): Dannex

Are the votes really that spread out?? There's like four hours and a little bit left, guys. That's not ideal.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'll switch from Jondesu to Illwei.

[Ashbringer he/him]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

...Ash, if you’re going off the assumption that Gears was killed because his writing style was guessed from the Scribe note, why on earth am I the first choice?  You said it yourself, I thought it was you. I took your silence as a light form of confirmation.

Course we don’t even know if that’s the reason Gears was killed in the first place. For all we know it was random :P.

Because from what I remember, the people who thought it was me when I was the MR48 Doctor were split between it being Gears and Lament!Ash. So I don't think it's that much of a leap to assume something similar occured here. (Especially because the content of many semi-fourth-wall-breaking voices is indicative of either of us). So guessing it was me was a very close guess, one that nobody else made.

And I don't think Gears was killed randomly. At least it was a low-info kill... but there are many other targets for those. And even randomness is affected by what people know of the player in question.

[Elandera she/her]

Three hour warning! Also, rollover may take significantly longer today than usual, but I will try to get it posted sooner rather than later.

[Ashbringer he/him]

How are there seven people viewing the thread and none of them have posted in...

I don't even know.

To avoid Danforth deciding the exe, Illwei. Anyone has other ideas, I'm all ears. (I'd be willing to move to @Quintessential as well... Mat less so but maybe.)

(@Illwei because for some reason it only wants to work down here...)

[Quintessential she/her]

1 hour ago, Dannex said:

Azmine_king- Null/Mild Elim. That bit about not knowing you can talk at night just seems kinda weird. But then I don’t see what an Elim would gain from claiming that either, so Null-ish for you.

On other sites, people can't talk at Night (I know, weird, right?) so I can see it happening. But. Regardless of Az's alignment, I'd have expected Illwei to warn him about that... hmmm maybe this makes me think Illwei is weird this game  (not really, I still mostly think she's vil).

1 hour ago, Dannex said:

Illwei- Elim. Upon reviewing some of illwei’s posts, they seem to not really be saying much. Definitely seems less active than usual, like maybe they aren’t really trying to solve the game. Most of their posts seem to be banter or direct responses to other things, no unprovoked analysis.

Illwei recently got a job, which is (I would guess) why she's been less active this game. And banter/direct-responses-to-other-things are like, Illwei's main form of playing.

Hey wait Dannex she was less active last game too! Why are you sussing her for it?

1 hour ago, Dannex said:

Quintessential- Mild Vil. Quinn also seems to be just a bit less active than usual, but they way they’ve been questioning things and contributing to the discussion makes me lean Vil. 

yeahhhh that's probably because there was like a week where there were no SE games going on, and I had to fill that enormous hole in my life somehow, so I got myself addicted to binge-watching Netflix shows. And. Haven't stopped now that this game has started. (I just finished The Queen's Gambit)

Hmmm you're very ambivalent about the two people who've been the biggest focus so far this game (Jondesu and Szeth). *tinfoils Dannex/Szeth/Jondesu team* *stops because that's dumb and paranoid*

1 hour ago, Dannex said:

Araris Valerian- Mild Elim. This might be more of a tone/gut read. Some of Araris’s posts just feel kinda off. Don’t feel comfortable acting on this read though, not until I can pinpoint why Araris feels weird. 

Seconded! But then, that's how I felt about Araris last game too and that turned out great smh I'm just glad I'm not the only one who still thinks he's off : P

1 hour ago, Dannex said:

Vonnegut- Confused. It’s always hard for me to get a read on people I haven’t played with before, but I think you’re feeling semi-vil? Maybe?

We're all kinda thinking Vonne's vil at this point because (and this is confirmed by a scan from Archer) they didn't submit an action scan during the Night because they didn't realize they could. 

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'll switch from Jondesu to Illwei.

This. Doesn't make things any less spread out. Araris. smh

59 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

And I don't think Gears was killed randomly. At least it was a low-info kill... but there are many other targets for those. And even randomness is affected by what people know of the player in question.

Why would the elims want to kill a Scribe anyway? is my question. idk, I guess it's an easier kill 'cause someone who has a role is maybe less likely to have Silver Bones or something, but it's not like Scribes are really that much more useful to the village than someone who has no role and has a normal item. Y'know, 'cause there are useful common actions in this game. I'd imagine the elims would target people with roles/items that indicate village-ness, but Scribe doesn't. I guess it didn't really occur to me that they'd killed him for his role--assuming they'd guessed/known he had it in the first place--until other people brought it up.

@Ashbringer this post is why (at least in my case). I don't want to cause a tie, but I don't think Illwei's elim and I don't think there's any real reason to kill her here, so Jondesu. Illwei seems normal to me, personally, and if she's been a little inactive I'm pretty sure it's just 'cause she's gotten busier irl. So yeah. I'm not super sure about Jondesu either, but... at least they've actually done stuff that's sus. Edit: (Ash)

Edited May 2, 2021 by Quintessential

[Mat he/him]

I don't get the Illwei train. Did Ash even mention suspicion of her?