Quick Fix 52: Dancing in the Mists

[Archer]

Can confirm, I asked to have a PM with BridgeFour. 

Also, everyone please vote! Even if y'all just randomly pick someone, at least it'll scare the elims into action. 

[Bridge-Four]

 

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

Also, everyone please vote

I am yet to make my mind up, but I will vote Matrim or Kings.

[---]

9 hours ago, Archer said:

Free village points to anyone who tried to PM Liranil. I'll conf-town you even. Any takers?

*raises hand*

[Mat]

Kings-Archer-Dannex is way to obvious to actually be the team, right? Or are the elims just not distancing this game?

I would like the exe today to be on one of them, but I guess I don't need it to be. I'd like it not to be on me because I know exactly how well that will turn out and so far I have seen literally no reasoning against me so that's cool.

Bridge Four is probably village, in my opinion.

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Again, why? To both of those things. I didn't find your last post overly suspicious, so I'm curious why you thought people would. Especially since no one actually said they did : P

First, basically the same as yours. Their suspect list C1 included Bridge (no reason so far to suspect them), me (also no reason so far to suspect them), and Dannex (minimal reasoning to suspect them) and then they choose... Bridge, which I would say is the choice out of the three that makes the least sense.

They also said in that post that they'd rather not vote the same in thread as in their PM, "not for completely personal reasons". They go on to explain that it's about making each game unique, but I... still don't like the sound of that.

To your second question, someone definitely could take my "I don't like reasoning things like that" as a setup defense or a deflection for when my teammate Kings flips elim :P. It's not, I actually don't like killing someone just because someone else might be their teammate, and I'm voting Kings anyway because there's reason to do so beyond that.

[Jondesu]

Remart groaned. He’d slept through another day? Oh well, time to figure out what was going on.

(Sorry, missed day 1, I’ll catch up and participate!)

Edit since no one has posted yet since I said that and I don’t want to double post:

I like the discussion surrounding distancing and whether Elims bussed anyone, I have a history of bussing teammates, so it intrigues me to figure out if the current team of Elims would do so as well. I do think that Matrim is less suspicious to me than Kings of the two top candidates right now, but I’m going to try to put more time into reading day 1 to see if anyone else stands out. I fully intend to make my allegiance able to be determined without having to say it definitively, but of course I know that will take more posting from me. I’ll try to make at least 2-3 posts per cycle so long as I survive, more if I can (and my next one will be RP).

Edited April 17, 2021 by Jondesu

[Quintessential]

24 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Kings-Archer-Dannex is way to obvious to actually be the team, right? Or are the elims just not distancing this game?

Wait why Kings/Archer/Dannex? I've been reading Archer and Dannex village so I suppose I haven't paid as much attention to anything that might link them as I normally would. 

40 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Bridge Four is probably village, in my opinion.

Yes, I agree with this. If Bridge were elim then the team would have had them create a PM with someone. Assuming Bridge isn't lying about not having done so, my conclusion is that they're village.

To the rest, that makes sense, thanks for the explanation. I'm keeping my vote on Kings at least until they respond, and possibly afterwards too depending on how they respond. They chose to vote the one person they'd named who had literally 0 chance of being exed that cycle, and it wasn't like it was making a statement of "I really do think this person is sus, even if I know they're not gonna get exed" because Kings never said why they thought Bridge was sus, or why they thought Bridge was more sus than the other two. So yeah, I'm perfectly happy exeing Kings right now unless they have a really solid explanation for that vote : P

Ah, that reminds me! @Bridge-Four would you mind explaining why you're most sus of Mat and Kings? It's fine if Kings is just "what Quinn and Mat said" but I'm curious about why you might vote for Mat.

[Jondesu]

Separating this out so it doesn’t get too confusing to read multiple edits.

Remart looked around. Trollten had just been removed from the ball, an odd occurrence but certainly somewhat deserved based on his behavior. Those pushing for his removal vocally could be forgiven, due to the disturbance he’d caused, but he’d keep an eye on them anyways. 
Where had Linaril disappeared to, though? She should have returned by now. Philico seemed to have been pushing to have her removed at one point, had he done something about her or was it coincidence?  Remart checked the door she’d left through…it was locked now, and he didn’t have the key so there was nothing more to do there. He noted her disappearance and strolled casually back into the crowds, looking for a friendly group of nobles to join a discussion with.

Or, that is, not so unfriendly. Nobles were rarely friendly, and always dangerous. Even at a ball.

[Bridge-Four]

14 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Ah, that reminds me! @Bridge-Four would you mind explaining why you're most sus of Mat and Kings? It's fine if Kings is just "what Quinn and Mat said" but I'm curious about why you might vote for Mat.

The main reason for it has been the late vote switch in the last cycle. And a bit of this -

18 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

...Here's where I tinfoil that Liranil was killed to make me look bad :P.

Though it seems quite obvious, it could also be the other way around, maybe it was made to make it look obvious, so that we leave Mat from our sus list.  (Maybe I am overthinking it.)

And a bit of gut read (Even though it was wrong the last time, sorry TUO!)

But as I am thinking of it, I sus Mat a bit less now (But I still sus you  for now)

Anyways I voted for Kings this cycle.

Edit- Oops I forgot to reason out Kings voting, it really is from what you(Quinn) and Mat said.

Edited April 17, 2021 by Bridge-Four
Reason for voting Kings_Way

[Quintessential]

12 hours ago, Illwei said:

Hello

If e!kings then 1 of [mat, danex] elim

Discuss

Ohhhh is it bad that I only just figured out that e!Kings would mean one of [Mat, Dannex] is sus because Mat/Dannex/Bridge were the three that Kings named, and they voted for Bridge? I just thought of that myself and then was like "wait that sounds familiar..." xD

Anyway, to clarify, e!Kings would likely have named a teammate in that list of people they were planning to vote, as a means of distancing from that person. It could actually be Bridge, since there was no way Bridge was going to get voted off and it would have been safe to vote them, but we have other reasons to think Bridge is village. So yeah, probably Mat or Dannex. Edit: If Kings is elim. If Kings is village then it doesn't mean anything : P

Edit: oh, yeah, and @Bridge-Four that makes sense; some of the gut/odd phrasing stuff that you pointed out had occurred to me too, though for the moment I'm not super concerned about it. If Kings flips elim I'll look more closely at Mat, though it seems rather an odd choice for Mat to willingly bus a teammate C2... hmmm yeah idk about that. 

Edited April 17, 2021 by Quintessential

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Bridge-Four said:

The main reason for it has been the late vote switch in the last cycle

If you're sus of late switches, you'll love the EoD sometimes xD Late switches are normal, to say the least.

But seriously, I unvoted a villager because I didn't like the train, and then voted the person that was killed. It's more likely that Liranil was their kill before I voted them, not after, also. (Could we look into that? Probably not.)

If TUO had flipped elim, sussing me for my switch would be fair. But they didn't 

4 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Anyway, to clarify, e!Kings would likely have named a teammate in that list of people they were planning to vote, as a means of distancing from that person. It could actually be Bridge, since there was no way Bridge was going to get voted off and it would have been safe to vote them, but we have other reasons to think Bridge is village. So yeah, probably Mat or Dannex. Edit: If Kings is elim. If Kings is village then it doesn't mean anything : P

Yeah, hence my Kings/Dannex/Archer. Dannex/Kings for that, adding in Archer because he's been against killing Kings. But that seems over-obvious :/

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yeah, hence my Kings/Dannex/Archer. Dannex/Kings for that, adding in Archer because he's been against killing Kings. But that seems over-obvious :/

Idk, it wasn't obvious to me... but that does make sense. Could also say Kings/you/Archer, though, with the weird caveat that that would mean you're C2 bussing a teammate, which... well, would be weird xD

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But seriously, I unvoted a villager because I didn't like the train, and then voted the person that was killed. It's more likely that Liranil was their kill before I voted them, not after, also. (Could we look into that? Probably not.)

And this is why I say it'd be confbiasy of me to assume that Mat's last-minute switch means he's elim. You could easily argue that he was a villager who realized there was no opposition to the main train (as there likely would have been if an elim had been in danger) and switched to the person he was voting before. You could also argue that he was an elim who, knowing that TUO was going to die even if he moved his vote and knowing that moving his vote to Liranil (the NK) would give him vil cred, decided to go for it. But again, confbias : P

And no, I don't know of any way to find out when the NK was decided  I'm assuming it was chosen fairly early, though, since there's usually not much that happens during C1 that would effect the elims' choice of kill, so why bother waiting? then again in QF50 I'm pretty sure my team basically randomly picked Connie as the kill about a half hour before C1 rollover so who knows.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

confbias

Can someone explain to me what this means I've put off this question long enough

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Can someone explain to me what this means I've put off this question long enough

Confbias is when you do analysis or interact with someone already expecting (consciously or unconsciously) to come to a certain conclusion. So like, last game I had a gut elim read on Striker for a while and so I kind of accidentally saw everything Striker did as elimmy up until right before he died. That's confbias.

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

Confbias is when you do analysis or interact with someone already expecting (consciously or unconsciously) to come to a certain conclusion. So like, last game I had a gut elim read on Striker for a while and so I kind of accidentally saw everything Striker did as elimmy up until right before he died. That's confbias.

Oh I do that all the time ok xD

[Gears]

This will likely be my only post of the cycle. I am currently at a math competition with limited access to the internet. About half of this post was written yesterday, so if it seems disjointed, that is the cause.

Liranil posted twice. The first of which was a statement of existence. The second was vague agreement but adding nothing. As such, Liranil was likely not killed for their own existence. The Matrim implication is a possibility. The low-info route is also one. My paranoia thinks that Matrim knowingly slaughtered the person they were implicating to make themself look better as obviously they wouldn't waste their implication efforts like that. 

11 hours ago, Dannex said:

Erm, no? 

I have no control over what Kings says, it’s not reasonable to group two people together based entirely off of what one of them says. 

As I was quickly skimming the thread to see what I missed, I noted this statement. Grouping people together based off of what one of them says is entirely reasonable [even if I'm not fond of it], and Danex attempts to cast doubt upon the method by saying that it is invalid, specifically using the point that they have no control over Kings. That has no relation to the point. Kings suspected Danex for no reason specifically over all the other people that they could have suspected without reason. This entails a link. If Danex had repudiated the statement via other means, such as pointing out the likely villager-ness of all involved, then they would be fine, but they attack the method of gathering information. This indicates to me that Danex has no rebuttal to the claim being made, and that Danex wants to refute the claim. The only reason why Danex would want to refute the claim is if they know that Kings is an elim and don't want to die after that. 

11 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Kings

Lol I can totally see how someone could suspect me for my last post 

Then there is this post. Their previous post was about how given elim!Kings, we should kill Danex. Now they mention being suspicious when no such thing was mentioned. Combined with my paranoia, Mateo is solidly Noted. In the world of e!Mat, I suspect V!Kings and Dannex since my main suspicion of Danex depends on Kings being an elim, and I don't think Mateo would try for the bus so early. 

I think killing Kings is optimal at this point since them flipping elim will semi-clear Mateo and implicate Danex, and them flipping vil will semi-clear Danex. If I fail to vote, it's because the struggling internet here died right before I succeeded in doing so.

[Quintessential]

3 minutes ago, Gears said:

As I was quickly skimming the thread to see what I missed, I noted this statement. Grouping people together based off of what one of them says is entirely reasonable [even if I'm not fond of it], and Danex attempts to cast doubt upon the method by saying that it is invalid, specifically using the point that they have no control over Kings. That has no relation to the point. Kings suspected Danex for no reason specifically over all the other people that they could have suspected without reason. This entails a link. If Danex had repudiated the statement via other means, such as pointing out the likely villager-ness of all involved, then they would be fine, but they attack the method of gathering information. This indicates to me that Danex has no rebuttal to the claim being made, and that Danex wants to refute the claim. The only reason why Danex would want to refute the claim is if they know that Kings is an elim and don't want to die after that. 

Ohhhh okay okay yeah this is a good point. It reminds me of what Araris and Maill (both elims) did to my analysis in LG74--rather than trying to refute my points, they attacked how I had phrased those points and the methods by which I'd reached them. Dannex is doing something similar here. I could see v!Dannex being concerned that he'd get voted off if Kings is really elim, and being annoyed that he's being tied to someone he really has no link to... but I could also see e!Dannex knowing that Kings will flip elim, and worrying what will happen to him if Kings does. (more confbias, yayyyy) It is an odd response, though, since we get info on people based on what other people do all the time, so I may... back off on my village read a bit : P

[Quivil]

Okayyyy...

I've a PM with Quinn.

Strong vil reads on Mat and Quinn. No elim reads so far.

Edited April 17, 2021 by Tani

[---]

@Matrim's Dice

"confirmation bias" is a googleable term :P. Just btw. 

Goodnight

[Bridge-Four]

Good Night to you too!

I'm also dropping off, will see you guys about 3-5 hours after the rollover happens.

And remember, Mraize will like to meet you if you kill Kiel, it won't be pleasant 

[xinoehp512]

I'M ALIIIIVE

..probably

It's been a while since I've played in a SE game... it's just as mind bending as I remember. 8O

My instincts tell me I should either not vote or join the bandwagon. But you know what? Forget that! Chances are I'll just fall inactive as the game progresses anyways. Might as well do something before then.

And so, I have a theory about Matrim's Dice! The theory: After submitting the kill on Liranil, the thought of her remained stuck in his mind. (Like when one is playing a game of Concentration and all one can think about is the word GREEN). He knew that if he voted on her, it could gain him village cred once she was killed. But! This was a fragile plan, and dependent on the whims of others. And so, quickly after rollover, he lampshaded his decision in order to reap the benefits!!

Now if you'll excuse me, I have some tinfoil that needs ironing. Tata!

[Quivil]

40 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I'M ALIIIIVE

..probably

Nope, you're obviously dead.

Stop posting, O dead one!

[Quintessential]

48 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Now if you'll excuse me, I have some tinfoil that needs ironing. Tata!

Ooo you like tinfoil too? Here's some: you're elim and you're trying to start a countertrain to your teammate, e!Kings!  no I don't actually seriously believe this but it's a possibility amirite?

[---]

In all seriousness mat less likely elim imo. Hes been acting similar to the game which...what was it... uhhhh the qf? Mr? That was running the same time as LG70. Unless he was elim in lg70, in which case im talking about that game

[Ashbringer]

Just an FYI that, depending on how things go, rollover may be either very quick or very long. I've got a family thing at 12:30 I was... previously unaware of and I'm not sure if/when/how long I'm going to be able to get away from that to start the next cycle.

The thread and voting still closes at 1:00 PST regardless of my ability to get on to do so. 

[Quintessential]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

In all seriousness mat less likely elim imo. Hes been acting similar to the game which...what was it... uhhhh the qf? Mr? That was running the same time as LG70. Unless he was elim in lg70, in which case im talking about that game

:/// wait are you saying he's acting like in a game where he was elim, or acting like in a game where he was village? *confusion*