Long Game 75: Alethi Politics

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

So first, off, having stepped away from the game for a bit, would like to say that I probably got too heated with Quinn the other day, and I'm sorry for that. 

Now, onto figuring this game out.

We have 8 players left. One of them is Elhokar. There are 5 villagers and 3 elims (unless Mat did something funky), and I know I am a villager. That leaves me with having to decide which of you 7 are the elims. If we assume that everyone who voted to kill Whysper was a villager, then we just solved the game, as the only players that leaves are Quinn, Connie, and TJ (excluding myself). I don't know if we can assume anything like this right now, not when things are this close. And, things aren't at ExLo as long as we don't hit Elhokar. 

I really don't know where to even look for our elims at this point. They've done a really good job of managing to stay alive so far, as far as I'm concerned. 

Yeah. I was planning to vote you, and maybe I still will, but we need to think about this carefully first so I'll hold off for now. 

I don't have time to do anything too in-depth with votes, and I'm not sure I want to given how my last post like that was received, but here are the final VCs from each cycle so far. I won't green in my name for these, so that it's easier for everyone else to use them for reference, but obviously I'm gonna leave myself out of any of my own team speculation : P

C1:
Illwei (5): Archer, Forge, Araris, Elan, Striker
Connie (1): TJ
Dannex (5): Whysper, Illwei, Tani, Quinn, Ash
Tani (1): Dannex

C2:
Dannex (6): Elan, Quinn, Whysper, Striker, TJ, Forge
TJ (1): Araris
Whysper (4): Archer, Dannex, Books, Tani

C3:
Araris (3): Striker, Quinn, Connie
Books (3): Whysper, TJ, Elan
Quinn (1): Tani
Whysper (4): Araris, Forge, Ash, Books

C4:
Elan (4): TJ, Striker, Ash, Books
Araris (1): Forge
TJ (1): Elan
Striker (2): Quinn, Araris

The thing that stands out to me, really, is that the elims didn't kill any of the people who were final votes on Whysper the cycle she died, even though in theory those players should be more widely village-read than anyone, and the least likely to get misexed. I can understand excluding Araris for... well, for me attacking him, and Forge for being new, but why Ash and Books? Why kill Tani? That's what's bothering me most ig.

Beyond that, I still think it's unlikely that all five final votes on Illwei were villagers, so one of [Forge, Araris, Striker] should be elim? If an elim other than Whysper voted Dannex that cycle, then it's me or Ash (well, for me I know it's Ash if anyone 'cause I know I'm vil, but for the rest of you, it's me or Ash).

C2, I could mayyybee see all the non-confirmed votes on Dannex being villagers, but that's half the people currently still alive so I doubt it. That makes this [Quinn, Striker, TJ, Forge], which doesn't narrow it down much at all. Slightly more for me since I'm able to take my own name out, but... not helpful. If an elim voted Whysper to get vil credit, then it was Books (since the other three Whysper voters are confirmed vil). I still think Araris's TJ vote was weird, but at this point it's not enough to deserve an exe so I half don't know why I'm noting it.

C3 is interesting because every person who is currently alive voted that cycle. Well, and there was an elim on the line, obviously. The first thing, which I've said already, is that it worries me that none of the Whysper voters from C3 were NKd. This team has tended towards low-activity, low-info kills, but we had kind of consensus-cleared Books and Forge (iirc) so they would be the people that would make the most sense to NK, especially since neither of them have been high activity. I don't... really understand why they're both still alive.

Beyond that, though, since we know that all three (I'm just gonna assume there are three : P) living elims voted this cycle. I would guess they're spread out among the three main trains, and didn't all vote on one person. Well. Unless they all decided to bus Whysper : P but unfortunately that doesn't help us very much 'cause there's so many of us, and... yeah. 

I will say, though, that tbh I'm leaning towards Books, almost. It's incredibly tinfoily, but... just. I was predicting they'd be the NK unless I was. And yet neither of us were. And I don't get it. Also, their Whysper vote C2 does in hindsight look a bit like a distancing vote, since at the time Dannex had seven votes to Whysper's 2, which was probably a wide enough margin for a single elim to feel comfortable adding their vote... yeah. And then if Books was an elim role, perhaps even Sadeas, then the same argument goes for them bussing Whysper C3 that I'd had for Araris, but perhaps a bit stronger since Books wasn't pulling the shift out of thin air, Whysper had Araris's vote already and Araris specifically tried to convince Books to switch. Where that leaves everyone else, idk, but--wait. That makes Connie look sus because when there was a tie between Araris and Books (3-3, during C3), Randby chose to vote Araris... Could also see either one of Forge and Ash being elim, and following Books to bus their teammate. Would lean towards Ash because I also have a hard time understanding why the elim team didn't NK him, in the scenario where they didn't want to kill off newbie!Forge and had some other objection to Books (like, for example, if Books is on the team ).

okay so anyway, still not voting yet because I want to come back to this in the morning and see how much of it slightly-more-rested me still agrees with, and also what everyone else thinks, but this is me being worried that we were all on the complete wrong track before and... deciding to do something about it. oof.

ninja'd by Forge, I'll post and then read what she said.

[|TJ| he/him]

@Quintessential, whom did you roleblock in the Night?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, so...TJ. I think this makes sense. Even after his game finished, he’s been laying low. And now, he’s asking Quinn who she roleblocked (presumably an elim teammate of his) so he can come out and say “well, that player can’t have submitted the elim kill,” but that player could very much still be an elim. We’ve been definitely looking in all the wrong spots, and I think going for TJ is our best shot. Or maybe Books, but I don’t know if the tinfoil is solid enough on them to go for that.

[|TJ| he/him]

18 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, so...TJ. I think this makes sense. Even after his game finished, he’s been laying low. And now, he’s asking Quinn who she roleblocked (presumably an elim teammate of his) so he can come out and say “well, that player can’t have submitted the elim kill,” but that player could very much still be an elim. We’ve been definitely looking in all the wrong spots, and I think going for TJ is our best shot. Or maybe Books, but I don’t know if the tinfoil is solid enough on them to go for that.

What? Is asking for more info about the situation wrong??? I was asking more not because of that, but because I find it suspicious that elims went for someone else when there was a claimed roleblocker present, someone who could actually catch the elims by their action rather than stuff in the market, so I wanted to see her response. 

I- I think Araris is village, and and if one of Striker/Quinn is elim... I really can't choose between the two. Striker is suspicious if Quinn is village because he wanted to vote between those two, and now he's voting for me. Quinn is suspicious for solely the survival thing. Outside the three, RandomBy/Connie still exists are sus.

Sorry for my activity level, but over the weekend I travelled to my hometown to attend an event, and back.

Books could have bussed Whysper, because they were sorta forced to vote for her by Araris. I still stand by my earlier elim read of them just by their posts. But they would not be the first person I would vote out. 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

17 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

What? Is asking for more info about the situation wrong??? I was asking more not because of that, but because I find it suspicious that elims went for someone else when there was a claimed roleblocker present, someone who could actually catch the elims by their action rather than stuff in the market, so I wanted to see her response. 

I- I think Araris is village, and and if one of Striker/Quinn is elim... I really can't choose between the two. Striker is suspicious if Quinn is village because he wanted to vote between those two, and now he's voting for me. Quinn is suspicious for solely the survival thing. Outside the three, RandomBy/Connie still exists are sus.

Sorry for my activity level, but over the weekend I travelled to my hometown to attend an event, and back.

Books could have bussed Whysper, because they were sorta forced to vote for her by Araris. I still stand by my earlier elim read of them just by their posts. But they would not be the first person I would vote out. 

Okay yeah that’s fair. I was more just curious what your response would be more than anything else. TJ. 

[|TJ| he/him]

Also, I had not caught up with the night cycle posts >> so I hadn't seen Quinn mentioned she'd be blocking Araris.

@Araris Valerian, you were roleblocked?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I didn’t get a message saying I was roleblocked.

[Quintessential she/her]

7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I didn’t get a message saying I was roleblocked.

Did you submit an action? If not you wouldn't have. I got a message from Mat saying I successfully RBd you, so either you didn't submit an action or you're lying 

Edited April 6, 2021 by Quintessential

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I didn't submit an action, so there is no way for me to know if I was actually roleblocked.

[Quintessential she/her]

9 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I didn't submit an action, so there is no way for me to know if I was actually roleblocked.

Ah, okay, that makes sense then. I definitely wasn't worried you enacting an elim ploy along the lines of what QF48!me did to QF48!Gears. Nope. Not at all.

[forget me not she/her]

The more I think about it, I am growing less and less suspicious of Araris. They are seeming more like a village.

For now though, I will vote on Striker for reasons I said during the night cycle.

(Shouldn't there be more votes by now? I guess there is still tomorrow. I got confused for a second when the cycle ended. xD)

[Quintessential she/her]

17 minutes ago, forget me not said:

(Shouldn't there be more votes by now? I guess there is still tomorrow. I got confused for a second when the cycle ended. xD)

There should be anyway, you're right. I've been holding off voting since I was waiting to see what everyone had to say about my theory, but since no one has said anything I'll just vote now. Books. To reiterate why:

• their vote during C2 looks like a distancing vote on Whysper in retrospect. At the time they placed it, the VC was Dannex-Whysper 7-2, meaning that even knowing about Dannex's vote-manip, an elim could still have felt fairly safe placing a distancing vote on her without actually putting her in danger.
• the explanation for why they might bus Whysper C3 is the same as for Araris--Whysper was vanilla, and e!Books might well have a role--but it makes more sense for e!Books to do it than e!Araris because Araris was the first voter, and probably could have chosen to try to shift votes onto a suspicious villager if that was his intention. Books, on the other hand, would have been voting on a teammate who already had a vote, and at the request of someone else (in this scenario, Araris would probably be village).
• they weren't NKd last Night??? I mean, really, this is what made me think of it in the first place. This elim team seems to like killing players who are A. low-info (like TUO and Gears) or B. a threat (like Archer, the primary voice against Whysper) while avoiding killing active players. Books fits both of those bills--they haven't been that active, and they got an elim exed, voting on her both cycles when she was in danger. So why haven't the elims NK'd Books?
• Beyond that, I can't recall much of anything that Books has done that made me think they were village, apart from voting Whysper, which I'm realizing now is maybe not as much of a guarantee of their being cleared as I'd thought it was--whereas for most other players that I'm suspicious of, I can think of something. 
• There have been things that seem... like, an elim pointing something out for village credit? Specifically, right now, I'm thinking of their first post, pointing out that it's XLo. Not just the content but the tone felt elimmy to me.

I guess... okay, thing is, I want to believe that both Araris and Striker are village, but I can't. Simply because the choices for NKs have been really really smart, and half of them happened after Whysper died so I can't really attribute that to her alone. Actually, the NK choices seem like Araris to me, or at least killing TUO and Gears does. Archer too, really, since he was a voice against Whysper and then revealed that he was an HP. And I could see a Tani kill being because Sadeas scanned her and Araris wanted to take out PMs  I could also see the NK choices being Striker's, though less so. But one way or another this doesn't feel like a team of near-inactives, and I know I'm not elim, so that leaves me with the conclusion that one of the other two active players is. If that makes sense? I'm not voting either of them because... well because I don't know which one I'd choose. Or I'm leaning towards Araris but I suspect that would be an unpopular stance, given the reactions I got last time I voted him : P

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Books. I've convinced myself on them being the most likely to be an elim of those who voted on Whysper. They're the one living player left who voted on Whysper the turn she didn't die, and I definitely think at least one elim went for that bus, and Books seems to me like the type who would go for that.

Striker (2): Araris, Forge
Books (2): Quinn, Striker

@Ashbringer @TJ Shade @Flyingbooks @Condensation We've got a little over half the cycle left and we haven't hit a second page yet. Want to get your thoughts out there? Who do you think should die? Who do you think is probably village? There's 5 villagers left out of the eight of us. Who do you think is mostly likely to be elim or village?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

There should be anyway, you're right. I've been holding off voting since I was waiting to see what everyone had to say about my theory, but since no one has said anything I'll just vote now. Books. To reiterate why:

• their vote during C2 looks like a distancing vote on Whysper in retrospect. At the time they placed it, the VC was Dannex-Whysper 7-2, meaning that even knowing about Dannex's vote-manip, an elim could still have felt fairly safe placing a distancing vote on her without actually putting her in danger.
• the explanation for why they might bus Whysper C3 is the same as for Araris--Whysper was vanilla, and e!Books might well have a role--but it makes more sense for e!Books to do it than e!Araris because Araris was the first voter, and probably could have chosen to try to shift votes onto a suspicious villager if that was his intention. Books, on the other hand, would have been voting on a teammate who already had a vote, and at the request of someone else (in this scenario, Araris would probably be village).
• they weren't NKd last Night??? I mean, really, this is what made me think of it in the first place. This elim team seems to like killing players who are A. low-info (like TUO and Gears) or B. a threat (like Archer, the primary voice against Whysper) while avoiding killing active players. Books fits both of those bills--they haven't been that active, and they got an elim exed, voting on her both cycles when she was in danger. So why haven't the elims NK'd Books?
• Beyond that, I can't recall much of anything that Books has done that made me think they were village, apart from voting Whysper, which I'm realizing now is maybe not as much of a guarantee of their being cleared as I'd thought it was--whereas for most other players that I'm suspicious of, I can think of something. 
• There have been things that seem... like, an elim pointing something out for village credit? Specifically, right now, I'm thinking of their first post, pointing out that it's XLo. Not just the content but the tone felt elimmy to me.

I guess... okay, thing is, I want to believe that both Araris and Striker are village, but I can't. Simply because the choices for NKs have been really really smart, and half of them happened after Whysper died so I can't really attribute that to her alone. Actually, the NK choices seem like Araris to me, or at least killing TUO and Gears does. Archer too, really, since he was a voice against Whysper and then revealed that he was an HP. And I could see a Tani kill being because Sadeas scanned her and Araris wanted to take out PMs  I could also see the NK choices being Striker's, though less so. But one way or another this doesn't feel like a team of near-inactives, and I know I'm not elim, so that leaves me with the conclusion that one of the other two active players is. If that makes sense? I'm not voting either of them because... well because I don't know which one I'd choose. Or I'm leaning towards Araris but I suspect that would be an unpopular stance, given the reactions I got last time I voted him : P

I think Books is pretty solidly village at this point, and certainly not the player we should be voting out this cycle. I had a village read on Books before C3 and the Whysper kill, but I  think the events of C3 should solidify that a bit more. During C3 Books had a very real chance of dying, and likely would have if it weren't for my shenanigans, given the vote removal that happened. Combined with Books's willingness to join me on Whysper, I'm definitely not voting for him this cycle. The point about the NK is your best one in my opinion, but if you believe that the elims are putting a lot of thought into their NKs, then they could just as easily have chosen the kill to get this sort of reaction.

I also feel like we should just vote off someone that voted on either Books or myself C3. The elims had the obvious incentive to be on one of those two trains, so it seems certain that there are elims to be found there. I'd rather go for the (relatively) low-hanging fruit before we get into IKYK territory. I also think we should try to consider who would possibly be elims with the player we are currently voting for. I'm currently leaning toward a Striker/Connie/TJ team, but there's some room for flexibility in there. Especially since Striker and Quinn are voting together yet again. Maybe Striker/Quinn/TJ.

@StrikerEZ @Quintessential, assuming that 1 elim did vote on Whysper C3, why do you think it makes more sense to try and figure out that elim then to look for the almost guaranteed 2/4 that voted for myself and Books? I feel like you two should at least want to go after TJ or Connie instead.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@StrikerEZ @Quintessential, assuming that 1 elim did vote on Whysper C3, why do you think it makes more sense to try and figure out that elim then to look for the almost guaranteed 2/4 that voted for myself and Books? I feel like you two should at least want to go after TJ or Connie instead.

Because if we assume that an elim voted Whysper C3 for the village cred, when it wouldn't actually put Whysper in all that much danger, the only player still alive who actually voted on Whysper C3 is Books. Maybe it's a bad assumption, but well, I've got nothing else at this point. All my reads have been off this game, and I'm going to stop going off of my gut and instead base things off of logical assumptions, even if they might be wrong.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

3 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Because if we assume that an elim voted Whysper C3 for the village cred, when it wouldn't actually put Whysper in all that much danger, the only player still alive who actually voted on Whysper C3 is Books. Maybe it's a bad assumption, but well, I've got nothing else at this point. All my reads have been off this game, and I'm going to stop going off of my gut and instead base things off of logical assumptions, even if they might be wrong.

You are confusing C3 and C2 (or at least which one I'm referring to). There was nothing at stake for the elims C2, so we're basically just guessing at what they did. No reason to think Books is elim or village from that vote. I'm talking about the C3 vote, when we actually killed an elim.

[Condensation she/her]

Um... I don't know. I feel like people are pretty much staying true to their playstyle, although I remember Striker being a lot less talkative. Quinn always talks a lot and Araris usually does, then Books is usually more reserved.

That's my way of saying I've got no clue. XD

I've never played with @forget me not (hello again), so I wouldn't know about their playstyle.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Especially since Striker and Quinn are voting together yet again. Maybe Striker/Quinn/TJ.

Pretty sure Striker's voting Books because Books is the only player available for Striker to self-pres on, but sure, read into it if you want to. : P

As to the rest of that post:

I decided to start this cycle with a clean slate, as should be obvious given that I'm at least not voting either you or Striker (...yet). So because of the clean-slate thing, I'm not labeling anyone cleared at this point. Something feels wrong about to me about... well, everything that's happened this game and I can't put my finger on it but nothing quite lines up or makes sense. 

If I assume that all of the people who voted on Whysper are village, then that leaves me with a team of Striker/TJ/Connie. But Striker keeps trying to get TJ killed, which doesn't... really make sense for e/e interactions this late in the game. The elims just have to get one more misexe to gain control of the thread, so why waste a cycle bussing (or seriously distancing from) a teammate?

It could be distancing, but that inconsistency is more than enough for me to feel justified looking at the Whysper voters. To ignore them would be to ignore half of the current players, and more than half of the ones who could be on the team from my POV, and I'm not about to do that. It worries me that you're arguing I should.

As a matter of fact, this was exactly the response I was expecting from you but hoping I wouldn't see. None of the villagers left have the luxury of ignoring players just because they got an elim voted off; it's not likely that the team agreed to outright bus someone but it's not an impossibility, and if that's the case then they could all be voting Whysper. Again, not likely, but it's not a possibility we can afford to dismiss. Besides which, I can think of less drastic scenarios where any one or two of the four could be elims, having decided to bus because of the specific scenario and whatnot.

And yet, instead of considering those possibilities you've decided to trust the three non-you Whysper voters (no, you haven't explicitly said you trust all of them but this is XLo so suggesting we ignore them has the same practical effects), and you've more or less stated that it's suspicious that Striker and I aren't doing so. 

So I don't know what to think anymore. I don't know whether I think e!Araris is defending e!Books, or whether e!Araris is indirectly protecting another Whysper voter by defending v!Books, or whether v!Araris just isn't worried about the possibility that maybe up until now, we've been wayyyyy off course--and by "we", I mean "we the villagers who haven't been NKd yet". The elims seem to be perfectly fine with how things are going, as far as I can tell, since the mainstream views last cycle were voiced by one of me/Striker/Araris and none of us were NKd.

None of those possibilities around Araris make much sense, but tbh the one that makes the most sense to me is that Araris/Books are e/e. Because...

• Araris is an experienced player, and v!him... tends to think things through? Or at least that's the impression I've gotten. Outright dismissing half the players for consideration when we're literally at XLo doesn't seem like him. (correct me if I'm wrong and overestimating you, please, and then maybe we can have a nice logical conversation about all of the players and their probabilities of being elim )
• If Araris is elim and Books is village, then why the heck didn't Araris just self-pres on Books instead of voting an elim who had no votes? This is the possibility that makes the least sense of all. 
• So that leaves: if Araris/Books are e/e, I can actually think of a plausible scenario where they would have started a train on another elim: because she was vanilla, and neither of them were, and they were worried that whichever of them survived C3 would die C4, and they knew there were people who were suspicious of Whysper already because she'd been a countertrain to Dannex the previous cycle. 

So. There are my thoughts. More or less laid out plainly. I'm not sure who the last elim would be in a Whysper/Araris/Books reality, but I'd guess one of Forge or Ash. 

Have fun reading and responding to that while I eat dinner  

[StrikerEZ he/him]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

You are confusing C3 and C2 (or at least which one I'm referring to). There was nothing at stake for the elims C2, so we're basically just guessing at what they did. No reason to think Books is elim or village from that vote. I'm talking about the C3 vote, when we actually killed an elim.

I am definitely confusing C2 and C3, for sure. I just don't think that it's impossible for e!Books to have voted on Whysper C2 in order to distance from a teammate when the exe was already guaranteed to hit Dannex anyway, and voting out a villager could make Books look bad. And I personally, at this point, highly doubt that everyone who voted out Whysper C3 was a villager. That...is way too safe an assumption to make, and leaves me with literally just a TJ, Connie, Quinn team...which doesn't really make perfect sense.

I'm willing to leave my vote on Books or move it to Araris if enough people are willing to move it to Araris with me.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@StrikerEZ, I'm not asking you to assume that everyone who voted Whysper C3 was village (although I currently think that). I was pointing out that if we assume an elim voted on Whysper, we still have much better odds of finding an elim that voted on myself or Books.

@Quintessential, I appreciate that you brought up the possibility of Books and myself being e/e, because I think that is pretty much the only legitimate line of thinking for someone to vote Books right now. And given how things played out C3, it sort of makes sense. If two elims are up to die, then you bus a third to gain a double trust. But Whysper and I were the ones putting pressure on Books in the first place, and Books only voted on me in self-preservation. So basically we would have been bussing Whysper to get ourselves out of a mess that we created on our own. I would hope that you'd give me a little more credit as a player than that.

I'd also like to mention in general point of fact that I'm well aware of my current reputation with regards to bussing players. Anyone who read the LG74 elim doc knows that I played that game with the specific intent of subverting people's expectations of my playstyle. I never voted for another elim player, or even said that I was suspicious of a teammate through the entire game. So I think you have to assume that elim!me would be aware of the limited amount of trust that a bus would actually get me.

43 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

If I assume that all of the people who voted on Whysper are village, then that leaves me with a team of Striker/TJ/Connie. But Striker keeps trying to get TJ killed, which doesn't... really make sense for e/e interactions this late in the game. The elims just have to get one more misexe to gain control of the thread, so why waste a cycle bussing (or seriously distancing from) a teammate?

It could be distancing, but that inconsistency is more than enough for me to feel justified looking at the Whysper voters. To ignore them would be to ignore half of the current players, and more than half of the ones who could be on the team from my POV, and I'm not about to do that. It worries me that you're arguing I should.

As a matter of fact, this was exactly the response I was expecting from you but hoping I wouldn't see. None of the villagers left have the luxury of ignoring players just because they got an elim voted off; it's not likely that the team agreed to outright bus someone but it's not an impossibility, and if that's the case then they could all be voting Whysper. Again, not likely, but it's not a possibility we can afford to dismiss. Besides which, I can think of less drastic scenarios where any one or two of the four could be elims, having decided to bus because of the specific scenario and whatnot.

And yet, instead of considering those possibilities you've decided to trust the three non-you Whysper voters (no, you haven't explicitly said you trust all of them but this is XLo so suggesting we ignore them has the same practical effects), and you've more or less stated that it's suspicious that Striker and I aren't doing so.

So, first of all, Striker hasn't actually come anywhere close to getting TJ killed. I mean, look at how easily he backed off this cycle. I took that interaction as even more evidence for a Striker/TJ team.

Also, a similar argument holds for C3. Bussing a player pushes GriLo further back. Game could have essentially ended last cycle if I'd just written my analysis differently during C3. Why bus when victory is only a couple cycles away?

It's not a luxury to assume that elims prefer to not kill their teammates. It's not much of a leap from that to say that we should focus on the group of players that wasn't directly responsible for the death of an elim. I would also point out the distinct possibility that the elims might not have had the time to come up with a coherent response to the events at the end of C3, or even not all have been around for rollover.

So not only do I have reasons to think Books is village independent of C3, I think based on the odds alone, we have a much better chance of finding an elim elsewhere that people that voted Whysper. Besides, you and Striker seem to be ignoring all the players that voted on myself and Books (you have one minor comment about how Striker/TJ isn't e/e which does nothing to the possibility of 2 out of those 3 being elim). That seems far more egregious than ignoring the players that voted on Whysper, and makes me far more convinced that Striker/Quinn is e/e.

[Quintessential she/her]

Ugh okay so I have a headache from trying to figure this out. Things in response to @Araris Valerian:

• Books could be elim even if you're village, actually. Or at least, there aren't any interactions that I could find that make it seem unreasonable. But if you're elim, then you'd have self-presed on v!Books for sure instead of voting e!Whysper when no one else was. 
• But yes, looking back at my notes that was a part of why I'd cleared Books in C4--not just that they voted Whysper, but Whysper voted them. As did you, which makes you/Whysper/Books look less likely. 
• I may have suggested I was assuming you'd bus just... because during C4. As of... basically the end of C4, I've dropped that assumption because it's just not helpful and is kind of unfair. However, I will say that I am assuming e!you would know how to recognize when bussing is a good idea, and that you'd do it if it was. Like if you and Books were e/e. Which. Still looks less likely given that you and Whysper got Books into that mess in the first place
• As for TJ/Striker, I more meant that I can't see elims putting much effort into distancing this cycle. They don't have to play the long game anymore, or worry that if they're exed next cycle then they could give away their teammates by what they did this cycle and therefore a teammate would be exed the cycle after. All they have to do is get a villager exed rn. That's not a very high bar : P I concede that e!Striker might want to keep up appearances, though. So maybe I shouldn't dismiss TJ/Striker/Connie so easily, but that just feels really really easy and I'm wary of any solutions handed to me on a silver platter. 
• Like I said already, the only way I can see you bussing Whysper at this point is if Books was elim too. In that case you'd have good reason to do it--GriLo would be pushed back no matter what you did, so may as well make it happen with as little damage done as possible. Otherwise you're village lol
• It's a luxury to assume that when you're playing >> jk jk I know I said I'd stop : P but really, I'm allowing myself very few assumptions here. Basically, they are: Araris won't have voted Whysper C3 unless he's village or he and Books are both elims; Quinn is village. that's... literally it. I can envision scenarios in which e!Books, e!Forge, or e!Ash might vote Whysper, independent of their teammates. So yes, on the one hand you probably have a point that there's probably an elim in TJ/Striker/Connie, but I balk at the idea of largely ignoring the other four in favor of those three.
• Aaaaannnddd yep I'm also a bit of a hypocrite, since in focusing on the Whysper 4 I'm ignoring the other 3. Though I'd point out that for me the odds by pure probability are that I'll find an elim in the Whysper 4, since I know my own alignment. but of course that's true of you for the non-Whysper voters... so I'm basically doing exactly what you were doing... hence the hypocrite thing.
• Basically I just don't have anything on TJ or Connie. And I don't trust my read of Striker anymore because I have the feeling it may be clouded by negative stuff from C4, and have more to do with my personal feeling towards him rn than my thoughts on whether he's elim or not. If Books is elim and you're village, then I'd be quite suspicious of Connie, but that's basically all I've got and I already said that anyway.

Beyond that, I've been trying to put any kind of coherent picture together and I can't. Or rather, I can but there are two many different, conflicting coherent pictures. 3 of the other 7 players in this game are elims, so I never know if I can trust others' interpretation or criticism of my own thoughts because they could be elims misleading me on purpose. But I also don't know whether to trust myself here because (and you just pointed out a couple of specific examples of this : P) I have blind spots and biases. There's nothing that precludes a TJ/Connie/Striker team, but I can't find much that suggests it either except process of elimination that may be based on faulty assumptions. Voting one of the three might be guaranteed to hit an elim, or it might be a coinflip. Similarly, there's nothing that precludes a you/Books/[Forge, Ash] team except that would suggest that you and Whysper are incompetent... which... I mean we just saw an example of me overestimating an elim in MR49 so I'm wary of doing that too.

So this is my long-winded way of saying I don't know, and I don't know whether I trust you or anyone and this would be a lot easier if I did because then at least I could discuss with someone without worrying I'm being deceived. 

Edit: god this is like on multiple choice tests where you reach a question where you know that the answer is like... A or C but you can't pick one because you know whichever one you end up picking will end up being wrong xD

Edited April 7, 2021 by Quintessential

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

There's nothing that precludes a TJ/Connie/Striker team, but I can't find much that suggests it either except process of elimination that may be based on faulty assumptions.

I guess I'm arguing for something weaker than you seem to think. If we assume at most one elim voted on Whysper C3, and if we also assume that you are village (I'm giving up a lot here ), then we have that at least 2 out of Striker, Connie, and TJ are elim. Those odds seem much better than the 1/4 out of the players that voted Whysper. The same argument should apply with Striker as well, although I'm definitely not willing to assume you both are village. So it seems like the three of us should be able to agree to vote on TJ or Connie. But neither of you really gave any serious thought to either of those possibilities, hence my increasing suspicion on you both. 

For everyone who doesn't want to read multiple walls of text, I'll see if I can list out what I consider reasonable elim teams at this point:

• Myself, Books, and either TJ/Connie. This is for the SE player that is really paranoid about bussing.
• Quinn, Striker, and either TJ/Connie. My personal view, based on extensive agreement between Quinn and Striker. TJ is elim over Connie at this point.
• One of Striker/Quinn, and both TJ and Connie. This one is for Striker and Quinn if they decide they don't like the first option.
• 2 out of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie, plus either Forge or Ash. I haven't really put a lot of thought into this one, but it's possible.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I don't know why I'm still alive. But there's a lot of potential for protection in this game, so maybe the Elims just wanted to get a kill for certain. I have a few... other ideas, but I'd rather keep those to myself for now. (That and I have a... very weird track record when it comes to figuring out why Elims do things.)

This is what we had last cycle from the three-suspects thing - I'll include Elandera, I guess.

• Striker - Elandera, Quinn, Araris
• Quinn - Elandera*, Striker, Araris
• TJ Shade - Ash, 1/2 Striker, 1/2 Araris
• Connie - Ash, 1/2 Striker, 1/2 Araris
• Elandera - Striker, Quinn
• Forge - Elandera
• Araris - Quinn
• Gneornin - Ash

Connie, Gneorndin, and TJ didn't respond that I can see.

... speaking of which. Can anyone with more time than me find anything that separates TJ and Connie? I swear every time they've been brought up the past two cycles it's been together, and the main differential that I thought I found was just wrong.

[Quintessential she/her]

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

For everyone who doesn't want to read multiple walls of text, I'll see if I can list out what I consider reasonable elim teams at this point:

Heyyyy don't forget about my Araris/Books/[Forge,Ash] team!!! (this is the real bussing-paranoia team , don't listen to Araris when he tells you that's Araris/Books/[TJ, Connie])

13 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

• Striker - Elandera, Quinn, Araris
• Quinn - Elandera*, Striker, Araris
• TJ Shade - Ash, 1/2 Striker, 1/2 Araris
• Connie - Ash, 1/2 Striker, 1/2 Araris
• Elandera - Striker, Quinn
• Forge - Elandera
• Araris - Quinn
• Gneornin - Ash

Hey how come Araris only gave me as an answer? >> 

Striker and I agreed except for each other... both Araris and Striker have argued for TJ's death at one point or another, could be distancing or not, who knows... TJ is sus of both of them, according to this. TJ and Connie have the exact same reads... Elan had said she was sus of me and Striker (great : P), and Tani's only suspicion was Ash... who also appeared as a suspicion for TJ and Connie. Forge listed Elan as her only suspicion even though she was voting Araris for most of the cycle. 

K so I was hoping I'd think of something substantive to add to this but I didn't. : P

[Araris Valerian he/him]

45 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... speaking of which. Can anyone with more time than me find anything that separates TJ and Connie? I swear every time they've been brought up the past two cycles it's been together, and the main differential that I thought I found was just wrong.

The main things that come to mind are last cycle, in which TJ voted and Connie didn't (and this is suspicious because I think we had good reason to not kill Elandera), and the C3 vote, in which TJ wanted me dead and Randby mostly seemed unsure of what was going on (you can see I'm a little biased here).

 

45 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Araris - Quinn

My response to your question was sort of long (link), but the conclusion was:

Quote

I'd be happy voting off any of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie

Although at that point I was waffling a bit on both Striker and Quinn being elims, but felt fairly sure about TJ and Connie. Pretty sure elim!Connie would have voted last cycle though, so that's caused me to change.

Edit: Looks like I made the same mistake as Quinn

Edited April 7, 2021 by Araris Valerian