Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[Biplet]

Mmmmm yikes. 
I could be jumping the gun here but I don’t think this vote manip makes Maill look good. Quinn could’ve taken that vote off herself, since we now know she’s a soother. 
 

Looks like two soothing actions? Or a rioter that didn’t vote. Correct me if I’m wrong pls.

[Mailliw73]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The one rollover I sleep in. Wow.

I don't know what happened at the end there.

To make things clear: People kept saying that I was voting Maill for the same reasons as Quinn. This is not true, I specifically said that they were different when commenting on Quinn's reasoning. My reasoning for voting Maill was the same as Illwei's (who... didn't keep their vote, for some reason :P) who provided a massive iso with tons of good points that apparently I'm the only one who read. So my suspicions have not changed in the slightest.

I assume Quinn manipped off herself, and I assume the elims manipped off Maill.

So I never read that whole ISO( like it seems most didn’t) because it’s incredibly long. Would you mind summarizing or mentioning a couple of points of why you suspect me? Pointing to the ISO over again doesn’t really help. @Tani @The Windrunner Supreme I would still be curious to hear your reasons as I haven’t seen any. 

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Forgot to ask- Quinn voters, you accused the Maill voters of not having reasoning- what was your reasoning?

iirc Devo was like the only one to have reasoning for voting Quinn

^^^This  

I say that above and then I go and agree with you, Mat.  but I do agree. My reasoning for Quinn was i think I still have plenty to offer. So self-preservation, yeah. I still wish that hadn’t been the option, since I said I wasn’t going to move on the Fallion’s Four and Illwei. I don’t see the reasoning behind Dannex so I wouldn’t have wanted that. And could someone summarize the suspicions on Ash? I was too busy yesterday with RL things and the Fallion’s Four that I didn’t catch that suspicion. 

But I would be interested in Stink’s reasoning. Seems like for Elandera, Devo, and Burnt it came down to a slight difference in their read of me and of Quinn or that they felt Quinn would be more definitive. I think this has further confirmed the idea to me that none of the Four are evil and we just got caught up in our own mistakes. I’m not going to be on much today, sorry. But assuming I survive, I’ll try to share more tomorrow and reevaluate yet again. 

It’s not going to be helpful to Seek me and to Coinshot me, so I think you’ve gotta pick one or the other. 

I would suggest TWS or TUO or Daisy for the coinshot as well since that’s likely to help us root out any inactive elims. 

For the Seeker, I’d suggest TJ or Mat or Devo since they seem to be prominent enough and have connections to various people that it would be helpful to know without them dying. Tani would be good for village peace of mind but I don’t think it’s worth it. 

[Stick.]

Sunny had baked an orange cake yesterday. Right as it came out of the oven, she showed it to three mostly-decent-looking fellows, and they seemed to be approving of it. 

But once the rest of the townsfolk discovered the existence of this cake (the delectable aroma was too strong, alas), they weren't happy to have not been showed the cake earlier. They were right of course - the cake was a beauty deserved to be admired by everyone. Thus, Sunny left it out in the open for the day for everyone to see - right in the heart of Fallion's Tears. 

When Sunny returned to fetch the cake to take it home for the night, she was overcome with sorrow at discovering a quarter of the cake having been eaten by the townsfolk. She was not surprised, however, and she suspected more of the cake would be eaten. Maybe soon, maybe later. 

(image in spoiler)

Spoiler

 

[Mat]

33 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

So I never read that whole ISO( like it seems most didn’t) because it’s incredibly long. Would you mind summarizing or mentioning a couple of points of why you suspect me? Pointing to the ISO over again doesn’t really help. @Tani @The Windrunner Supreme I would still be curious to hear your reasons as I haven’t seen any. 

Yeah, I'd be happy to- this can also be like a mini thing for everyone else that didn't read the iso :P. Which honestly isn't even that long.

A lot of it won't mean anything unless you read Illwei as village, though. I do, so it made a lot of sense.

First: Quoting the most important parts I think

Early on, about voting Illwei:

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 - I don't like how he votes me "seriously" ? and then goes on to tag a number of people who haven't talked (something #3 on Illwei's suspicion list when he hasn't done much yet himself?) and then says "may poke vote them later" which is just kinda strange to me. He's backtracking on his seemingly real read of me, and giving him an excuse to potentially end the cycle on a "poke vote" and avoid being on a top wagon?

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- I thought originally that this was him defending his vote on me, but what it seems to be is
1) someone tells him that I have a chaotic playstyle
2) He thinks that excuses my voting
3) He leaves his vote on me, because even though he thinks that the voting is normal for me, he still is fine with me dying? when that was the point against me in the first place?  

A bunch of random points I found mildly interesting but don't really add to suspicion:

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 - Makes it known he has a PM with gears. a strange specific. Possibly Maill/Gears E/E

 - Nitpicky!Illwei notices that he thinks reading is new, but didn't tag him when he tagged the new people :P.

 - I was definitely not posting as much as Quinn so this is Nitpicky!Illwei back to say that this shows focus on me for some reason.

Second: Illwei's TL;DR at the top of the iso

Not gonna quote directly, but Maill continually had Illwei as his top suspicion and continually didn't vote her. People have been saying that if v!Illwei, e!Maill makes the most sense- so it looks a lot like stalling, knowing that after Illwei's flip Maill would be next.

So that, mixed with the gut I'd had since D1 against you, plus now the manip that I saw and the push against Quinn to save you, solidifies my elim read on you. I also don't like how both you and Stick are pushing that the Fallion Four is v/v/v/v. Seems to forced.

I don't want to jump too far into Maill-Someone e/e pairings but I can see Maill/Stick and Maill/Araris. Former for the defending/flip-flopping, latter for the vote pattern.

Edited March 7, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
This was post 2,999... Next one will be a continuation of the story for the big 3k

[Mailliw73]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yeah, I'd be happy to- this can also be like a mini thing for everyone else that didn't read the iso :P. Which honestly isn't even that long.

A lot of it won't mean anything unless you read Illwei as village, though. I do, so it made a lot of sense.

First: Quoting the most important parts I think

Early on, about voting Illwei:

A bunch of random points I found mildly interesting but don't really add to suspicion:

Second: Illwei's TL;DR at the top of the iso

Not gonna quote directly, but Maill continually had Illwei as his top suspicion and continually didn't vote her. People have been saying that if v!Illwei, e!Maill makes the most sense- so it looks a lot like stalling, knowing that after Illwei's flip Maill would be next.

So that, mixed with the gut I'd had since D1 against you, plus now the manip that I saw and the push against Quinn to save you, solidifies my elim read on you. I also don't like how both you and Stick are pushing that the Fallion Four is v/v/v/v. Seems to forced.

I don't want to jump too far into Maill-Someone e/e pairings but I can see Maill/Stick and Maill/Araris. Former for the defending/flip-flopping, latter for the vote pattern.

Thanks, I appreciate the summary! 

I don’t understand when I didn’t vote for Illwei... D2, I already explained that I voted for Striker and then was debating moving back to Illwei, but since Tani was going to coinshot her, I didn’t see the point. I think that’s the piece people are missing that maybe I haven’t made clear. I thought that Illwei was basically dead already by halfway through D2 because we had a mistborn with steel that I saw no reason to doubt. So why would I then push an exe when I knew she was going to be dead? Obviously things went sideways but that was my thinking at the time. 

[Burnt Spaghetti]

5 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

On the other hand... there’s not really a way for a Seeker to confirm things to the thread just yet. With Bard down they probably shouldn’t claim to thread unless they get proof of another (Village) Lurcher.

Well, what they need to do is find one of the tineyes. We've evidence of two in play currently. 

[Ashbringer]

@TJ Shade

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@Ashbringer, first off I'm very much confused why you would make a post about who your elim teammates could be xD 

Er... because the main point was "Ash didn't need to self-pres because his Elim teammates can save him"? There's only five (now four) people that would be. (And two of them voted me D3... what that means I really don't know.)

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But, I never really got why you did not shift your vote on Pyro (on whom you said you have a null read) to save Striker (on whom you had strong village), especially when you said:

  23 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I didn't want to vote Pyro because I had a nearly entirely null read on them, and never really got why people were voting for them besides being generally inactive.

Isn't 'generally inactive' the exact reason you voted for TUO? That vote on TUO....still seems odd. I'll actually look at the post since I was clocked out for a bit for D2/N2 cause of the QF :P.

(I don't know what I did with the formatting)

I mean, at that point I didn't want to get involved as much because I wasn't at risk either way. (That and it was like, midnight. Pyro had 2/3-ish votes to Striker's 8.)

But I think Pyro was a different... sort of inactive than TUO? Pyro was obviously paying attention to what was going on and commenting on it. TUO doesn't seem as genuinely active... at all. Or talking a little while saying nothing, while I felt Pyro was saying something. Plus the last game Pyro played he had gotten voted out on D2 by like... thirteen people, while being Village  he does have a point about how he tends to get read "wrong".

So I could have voted Pyro, but I didn't. Mainly because at the time I saw it as an opportunity, I decided how bad it would make me feel outweighed the possibility of saving a stronger read. I'm not all blood and logic after all.

(Side note: that's to some degree why I didn't vote for Maill / Quinn. I didn't like the tie Burnt made, but breaking it either way would have made me feel bad. Plus when I did decide I should vote, I went back and forth until I reversed and decided 7:00-AM-Ash shouldn't be making life and death decisions ).

 

All I'm doing this game is saying how much of a Village read I had on all the dead confirmed Villagers... maybe not Quinn, as much. At least I'm consistent 

 

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And after sorta reading Ash's posts from C2 and the above stuff... (Ash, why did you vote for Quinn in between?), I...feel better about him? Still suspicious for not voting Pyro (ie hiding in side trains) to save Striker and vote on TUO (is it just for the inactivity?). Stick should be looked at closely IF Ash flips vil.

And the "elims benefit by not self-pressing when they know they have teammates to help out" was general statement Ash, not a thing in your case. In your case, I was thinking more like - if one of the Fallion's Four is elim, they may have let you know that there'd be votes on Striker anyway and that you'd be safe. And I think Maill or Tani (I know I'm alone in this but meh, I think we shouldn't underestimate new players) might be the one so I thought building e/e train might be a good way to give info. 

Vote for Quinn was somewhat a joke, somewhat trying to get a clarification on her moving from "yeah I agree it's hard to keep up" to "Ash why you so quiet".

And...

Uh...

They did.

Well, a Villager Four did, but may as well say so. Quinn PM'd me at some point (after she'd taken her vote off of me) saying she had "information that you're not in real danger of being executed" (fake quotation marks, not exact quote don't kill me Kas) in the middle of a mostly non-game-related discussion. I didn't really know what to make of it - at that point I think I was one vote behind of Striker, so I thought she just had contact with a Rioter/Soother that for some reason trusted me (which she did, didn't she...). I expressed that I didn't really want Striker dead either, but I couldn't do much about votes on him and I then forgot about it. Then the votes fell off me and for some reason I figured that was that... and the rest is relative history.

I did later get confirmation from Quinn and Mailliw separately that the joint maneuver against Striker wasn't ever (explicitly) about saving me. What it was, I don't know, but I need to stop talking about myself and the dead. That may be all Derrick's interested in, but I should probably be more mindful of the living.

I'll see what I can do.

 

Oh, and one thing:

12 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Well, what they need to do is find one of the tineyes. We've evidence of two in play currently. 

While that would be nice... problem is that lets an Elim!Tineye can cause a loooot of chaos. Claim a Seeker confirmed them, claim [Eliminator] is Village, claim [Villager] is Elim, claim [Village Misting Claim] scanned Vanillager, claim the Seeker lied to them when they get called out, all from the safety of anonymous writeup posts that are all essentially impossible to track down. 

Edited March 7, 2021 by Ashbringer

[Mat]

47 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Thanks, I appreciate the summary! 

I don’t understand when I didn’t vote for Illwei... D2, I already explained that I voted for Striker and then was debating moving back to Illwei, but since Tani was going to coinshot her, I didn’t see the point. I think that’s the piece people are missing that maybe I haven’t made clear. I thought that Illwei was basically dead already by halfway through D2 because we had a mistborn with steel that I saw no reason to doubt. So why would I then push an exe when I knew she was going to be dead? Obviously things went sideways but that was my thinking at the time. 

I think it was less of a specific and more general. Sure, you might have preferred Striker, but it's been pointed out that most people on that train didn't really have reasoning. Reasoning that you posted about Illwei. As for D3, that's a fair reason. But as I said earlier I think the point was more a general one- there was some contradiction on how much you said you suspected Illwei and how much it looked like you suspected Illwei.

Plus, at this point that's only a small portion of my suspicion. There's the ever-present gut and the vote manipping, too.

---

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---

Philico whistled a happy tune, one not fit for the night it was sounded. Philico had needed to create lungs to make the noise, which had been a small hassle, but he didn’t particularly care. The music calmed him.

His mind worked, in a dash attempt to finalize the story he had created before he had to tell it. He didn’t want to ad lib, but if he needed to-

“Mr. Phil!” Peter’s voice echoed through the town louder than Philico would have liked. The boy ran up to him, and sat down eagerly. Philico sighed. He had hoped Peter wouldn’t come this soon, though patience was a trait rarely seen in the young. Clearly Peter was no exception.

“Welcome, welcome!” Philico said, raising his arms in a showy way. “I take it you want to hear the rest of the story.”

Peter nodded eagerly. “Yes, yes!”

“Before that, I think you should recap what you already know about the charac- I mean, the original settlers of this land.” Philico mentally chided himself. He needed to be more careful about throwing words around.

Peter didn’t seem to notice, thankfully. He was too busy trying to recall what he had heard the night before, face scrunched up in concentration. “Well,” he finally said. “There were two brothers, with funny names.” Philico sighed again.

“Noble names, with deep meaning.” he interrupted. “Why, the tales that the names Ico and Draimon could tell-”

Peter giggled. “I think the names are funny.”

Philico waved a dismissive hand. “Well, on with the summary.”

Peter sat up straight, as if he were reciting a report for a school class. “One of the brothers wanted to conquer the lands, and the other wanted to live happily without fighting. The angry one wanted to kill the nice one, but the nice one got away. I think that’s it.”

Philico nodded. It seemed that Peter already had some bias with the characters, but that was fine. “Indeed. Very good. As you recall, Draimon knew he could not return until he could beat Ico in a bout- as it was, Ico was the better warrior. Draimon needed an advantage.”

Philico moved some hordelings out onto the ground in between them, crouching down to cover them before Peter could notice. He gradually moved the hordelings together, stitching them into the shape of a sword stuck inside of a stone. An old adage, from somewhere not here. Perhaps it would speak to Peter.

“Draimon traveled far, looking for anything that would aid him in his troubles. After weeks of walking, he came upon a beautiful sword, wedged in the crack of a boulder.” Philico moved, revealing the replication he had created, and Peter gasped, moving closer to look at it. “Draimon drew it from within the boulder, and felt power flow through him.” Philico moved the hordelings that formed the sword shape, out to rest on the ground. Peter tried to pick it up, but Philico reflexively batted away his hand. “He knew it would be enough to defeat Ico and stop the war.

“But not being a war strategist himself, Draimon had neglected the most basic concept. Draimon had removed himself from the area, eliminating the only thing in Ico’s way from making his dream a reality.”

Philico waved his hands, and hordelings skittered past. He had already used this trick before, imitating an army, and he did the same here. Peter’s eyes were wide.

“Ico had already destroyed the surrounding towns when Draimon arrived. By the time Draimon had found his brother and slew him with the power of the sword, it was too late. The area was at war.”

Peter couldn’t hold his silence any longer. “But that’s not how it’s supposed to go! The good guys always win.”

Philico imagined all that he had been through, all the struggle he had seen and been a part of. The good guys, in fact, did not always win. But he didn’t say that. “You didn’t let me finish.

“Draimon led the war front, never attacking, but defending marvelously using the relic he had found. After years of fighting, the last enemy fell, and peace was established among his community. Only now, Draimon had no neighbors which to trade with. His people had no one to exchange ideas with, no one to compete with in friendly matches. And so they died out, and the population of this land was extinguished. Eventually, new settlers found their way here, and those would be your ancestors.”

Peter let out a breath. “That’s it?”

“Yes, Peter.” Philico said. “Not all stories have happy endings.”

“But what happened to the sword? The one Draimon found?”

Philico shrugged. “No one knows. It could be anywhere. But I’ll tell you something I do know.”

Peter sat up a bit further. “What’s that?”

“It’s that you need to go rest.” Peter’s face fell, and Philico laughed. “I’ll have something for you tomorrow.” Peter nodded.

“Goodbye, Mr. Phil!” he said as he left. “Thanks for the story!”

Philico sat staring at the wall for a long time that night. The tale might have been made up, but Philico couldn’t help wondering if the situation he was in was akin to the one he had created.

When all this was over, how many would be left?

---

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---

Yay for 3,000!

(And I do actually have something for tomorrow  You'll just have to wait.)

[Burnt Spaghetti]

8 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

 

While that would be nice... problem is that lets an Elim!Tineye can cause a loooot of chaos. Claim a Seeker confirmed them, claim [Eliminator] is Village, claim [Villager] is Elim, claim [Village Misting Claim] scanned Vanillager, claim the Seeker lied to them when they get called out, all from the safety of anonymous writeup posts that are all essentially impossible to track down. 

So then they have to scan a tineye so they know that they are innocent

[Ashbringer]

1 minute ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

So then they have to scan a tineye so they know that they are innocent

I mean if an Elim Tineye just makes up a Seeker that's been telling them things. I don't know how you'd initially tell that from a real Seeker telling a Village Tineye to tell the thread things.

And it's hard to scan a Tineye for making a suspicious looking anonymous post when it's... anonymous 

If Village!Seeker does find a Village!Tineye, it's better than repeatedly exposing the confirmed villagers to Elim attacks, but it also loses most of the accountability that an outed "confirmed" has.

[The Unknown Ajah]

51 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

 

I mean, at that point I didn't want to get involved as much because I wasn't at risk either way. (That and it was like, midnight. Pyro had 2/3-ish votes to Striker's 8.)

But I think Pyro was a different... sort of inactive than TUO? Pyro was obviously paying attention to what was going on and commenting on it. TUO doesn't seem as genuinely active... at all. Or talking a little while saying nothing, while I felt Pyro was saying something. Plus the last game Pyro played he had gotten voted out on D2 by like... thirteen people, while being Village  he does have a point about how he tends to get read "wrong".

So I could have voted Pyro, but I didn't. Mainly because at the time I saw it as an opportunity, I decided how bad it would make me feel outweighed the possibility of saving a stronger read. I'm not all blood and logic after all.

Just gonna say, inactivity is NAI for me, I've been mostly inactive in my elim LG and mostly inactive in my vil QF (Recently finished so I can use it as an example).

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Just gonna say, inactivity is NAI for me, I've been mostly inactive in my elim LG and mostly inactive in my vil QF (Recently finished so I can use it as an example).

Yes, but you shouldn't use it as a strategy, as that isn't really fun for anyone  If you're able to participate, please do- though of course real life trumps this and if you can't for whatever reason don't feel pressured to.

But contribution crusades do exist. I don't normally go for them, especially this early, but it's a thing.

[The Unknown Ajah]

27 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yes, but you shouldn't use it as a strategy, as that isn't really fun for anyone  If you're able to participate, please do- though of course real life trumps this and if you can't for whatever reason don't feel pressured to.

But contribution crusades do exist. I don't normally go for them, especially this early, but it's a thing.

I just can't normally. I spend most of my time without internet or my phone and the little time I do have is spent reading up on the thread. I also don't tend to get as solid reads and therefore don't vote. 

Of course I might decide one game to be chaotic and change my vote everytime I'm on and be super active, it would be hard, but it would be fun, this is just easiest.

[Mat]

1 minute ago, The Unknown Order said:

I just can't normally. I spend most of my time without internet or my phone and the little time I do have is spent reading up on the thread. I also don't tend to get as solid reads and therefore don't vote. 

Of course I might decide one game to be chaotic and change my vote everytime I'm on and be super active, it would be hard, but it would be fun, this is just easiest.

Alright, that's totally fair  Do what works for you.

[Gears]

One vote manip was presumably Quinn. Under that premise, the other is a Rioter pretending to be a Soother, a Rioter and a Soother that hit the same person, or just a Soother.

Continuing the Iso!Wei. It seems bit pointless now since no one really suspects them, but I put a lot of effort into the first bit and sunk-cost fallacy.

Spoiler

D2

Spoiler

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On 3/1/2021 at 10:48 AM, Kasimir said:

Stuff

nice.

I guess Smirkai's name was just the beginning of the puzzles huh agh

Banter

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hm.

  On 3/1/2021 at 11:02 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm going to guess that was the elim kill, making Randby a Coinshot one

  On 3/1/2021 at 10:47 AM, Kasimir said:

Whoever it was, Wyl wasn’t about to have a rogue Coinshot murdering people. Not in Tremredare. Not in Fallion’s Tears. Not on his watch

Coinshot isn't very nice killing ventyl that was kinda unnecesary

*glares pointedly in your direction* . not nice. smh.

Banter

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On 3/1/2021 at 11:06 AM, Quintessential said:

I thought you were the Coinshot 

 

nahhhh, idk who did I vote on last cycle.  I'd have killed one of them, right? :P.

  On 3/1/2021 at 11:07 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

...Scratch that, I should read the writeups more closely  

Mat you just exposed yourself as not reading the writeups how does that make you feel *hold out mic*

Banter

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On 3/1/2021 at 11:11 AM, Quintessential said:

The thing about Coinshots is that it doesn't matter what the rest of us think if they disagree with us : P

I think the coinshot should definitely be listening to what the village has to say, because 1) more minds are better than one and 2) they're not an SK role

not saying you gotta poll people bc it's your choice who to kill but like thinking about what other people are thinking is nice too

I'm a hypocrite so yall can honestly disregard all of that lmao

  On 3/1/2021 at 11:14 AM, Kasimir said:

Why aren't you asking me how that makes me feel?  

I was gonna get to you next after I tried to guilt mat a lil bit /s

Good point. Banter.

Quote

 On 3/1/2021 at 11:22 AM, Fifth Scholar said:

after my Hebrew class

you should respond to things in hebrew and then i can try and translate it

Banter

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 On 3/1/2021 at 11:47 AM, Quintessential said:

I have no idea about the alignments of the two Tineyes, but the first one sounds like something that Gears or Ash would think up XD 

Two

Words.

P.

M.

s.

I may not be a follower of PM safety but I do worship the gods of Thread Safety

Emphasis on Thread Safety [which I agree with]

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  On 3/1/2021 at 11:49 AM, Biplet said:

I believe I read this differently than what you originally intended it to say  

...

*couch*

P

Ms.

...

Private.

Messages.

Okay that works. that. works better :P.

Banter

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Tani

^^^ That's irrelvant to this VVV

I was responding to some things but i clicked next page and when i pasted it pasted a screenshot I had just taken stupidly. anyways. didn't have much there.

Is Maill voting on someone? He has me as his top suspicion, then proceed to construct an Elim team around Striker being Evil? It feels like an Elim who is dancing around actually voting for me now that no one else is. Maill/Striker potentially e/e.
he also seems to completely drop his Stick suspicion with no explanation? I don't see how you can go from a top read to not worth an ending message or a vote.

Pyro talking about an Elim coinshot and then Immediately walking it back felt ?? to me? it would be different if I could see more thoughts but he had a "Elim Coinshot. think about it." and then went to "I don't understand the susp-" Okay as I'm writing this I think I see the connection now okay I got there eventually- wait no just looked at the post again and he then says "village coinshot checks out" and now I'm just confused >>
I also don't know what the bus thing is that people are talking about even though I've already lost this post once trying to find where that was first mentioned >> but just because a bus would be early doesn't mean that it can't be a bus? I also have no idea what I'm referencing here lmao someone help me :P.

I keep getting distracted trying to write this

I don't even remember the rest of my thoughts I've been spending like the past half hour PMing

maybe I'll continue this maybe I won't who knows

Their points about Maia do stand. The Pyro points are invalidated by that flip.

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On 3/1/2021 at 4:12 PM, Mailliw73 said:

I found Ventyl, Stick, and Striker to be the most suspicious.

  On 3/1/2021 at 4:12 PM, Mailliw73 said:

Stick brought it to 3-3-4 between Illwei, Reading, and Books. I don't really see that as alignment indicative yet.

There's no mention of stick outside these comments. one saying that you find stick suspicious, and another saying that you think one thing she did is NAI.

Good point, good point.

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@Tani what was the goal of PMing me?

Start of PM group?

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 On 3/2/2021 at 1:55 PM, Ashbringer said:

LET THE RECORD STATE THAT ARARIS VALERIAN USED PMS FOR PERSONAL GAIN.

Tani

Araris

--

Erm

I've been kinda busy this cycle.

uh

get back to me tomorrow on my thoughts

wait no

I'll get back to you tomorrow

or PM me.

Illwei has seemed very normal thus far.

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Welcome to PoE with Illwei

where we think Striker is village

but why do we think striker is village? I donno

and I honestly don't have the energy to think rn.

I don't think striker is an Elim

Argument for ash is Meta. Well my argument. my argument for him being village is meta. unless i'm- hold on-

idk.

idk.

  On 3/2/2021 at 3:38 PM, Quintessential said:

Ash being NAI is... NAI XD

I-

Enough NAI things adds-

^^ that's where I left this like two hours ago idk where I was going with this. fun times.

Vague confusion

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 On 3/2/2021 at 5:37 PM, Ashbringer said:

Maillaw

my good friend Mail law

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On 3/2/2021 at 6:11 PM, Fifth Scholar said:

seems to be content to post filler and not give suspicions

Hey there

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On 3/2/2021 at 6:25 PM, StrikerEZ said:

I’d adjust my assumptions

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On 3/2/2021 at 6:27 PM, Quintessential said:

Tani (1): Illwei

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oops lol sorry Illwei's vote should be on Araris  keeping track of votes in two games at once is harrdddd

The next person to try and use this "second game" excuse is gonna get it don't try me :P.

Edit:

  On 3/2/2021 at 2:24 PM, TJ Shade said:

Stuff from last night. Went back and read them again, to see if it was a one time thing, but no Gears feels off here - as I said it appears like he's defending Illwei, Quinn and Striker, to an extent, to appear very villagery. Gears.

  Reveal hidden contents

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 On 3/2/2021 at 7:22 PM, Araris Valerian said:

Illwei just kind of confuses me

I try so hard ;-;

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On 3/2/2021 at 7:27 PM, Quintessential said:

Couldn't neither one wanting to vote the other suggest that they're both elim? I mean, I can see it as them being both village, too, but I don't think it's a reason to back off of either of them.

or one could be elim and one village trying to pocket or something or get village creat it's all NAI without more context that I don't want to look for rn

Imma go cook some spinach

I do lament the NAI-ness of everything. Paranoia curls around the throat.

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I can't say I wasn't a little bit tempted to quote the VC and intentionally make a mistake

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 On 3/2/2021 at 8:55 PM, Biplet said:

Oh and also the random vote on Tani that I don't think ever got explained

That was me trying to get something out of Tani- which...

I don't even know what to think about Tani rn >>

I still feel like her in-thread things are village. Still confused about like "no I'm not new, but yes I'm new, but no I'm not" but if she was an elim also why not just...play new?? I

I donno

I don't like how striker has just picked up so fast like

Can I even use the "no one is defending him" thing?

All the reasoning seems to be "idk but i swear he was sus"

heyo I'm one of those two people pog

i feel special

Anyways

--

uhhhhhhhhhh reads

I like bip and mat and stick

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

i like TJ and Tani and Quinn for the most part

...I think-

so-

I keep looking at quinn and going "why isn't she obvious villager I thought quinn was always obvious villager"

and then i was like

"well when did I think quinn was obvious villager"

"oh"

"MR48"

but anyways i like Quinn. Fifth. Araris, burnt.

mmmmmmmmmMMMMMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmm

Araris

Pyro

honestly not getting good vibes from XP rn

They did push the XP kill in the Fallion's Four PM. 

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  On 3/2/2021 at 10:05 PM, Biplet said:

 

Wait

why is there no border on your :thonk:

what am i doing wrong

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  On 3/2/2021 at 10:07 PM, Biplet said:

 

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If you think you can read me here then raise your hand

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if you think that I'm actually going to click those links to see the quotes then you'd be wrong

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so biplet has successfuly taught her my ways

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  On 3/2/2021 at 11:19 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Taught... her... your? ways?

:|

*couch*

Biplet. Has. successfully taught me. her. ways.

...

:D.

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Conclusion as of D2: Solidly NAI, vaguely positive opinion for good points.

N2

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Well looky looky here looks like we gots a rioter on our hands.

If you talk to me in PMs then I won't end up outing you in thread, ya know? :P.

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  On 3/3/2021 at 0:22 PM, Tani said:

Fallion's Tears was soaked in blood

the blood of all the ducks you've killed

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  On 3/3/2021 at 2:31 PM, Biplet said:

“would I be this confident as an elim?”

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On 3/3/2021 at 3:04 PM, Mailliw73 said:

He also was going to yield more info

Do you have any conclusions from his flip, then?

Again with the good points

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  On 3/3/2021 at 3:22 PM, Mailliw73 said:

Except on you.  I don’t think striker’s flip changes anything there. Sorry. 

Then I think we gots ourselves another one to add to the hall of tunneling.

but wasn't asking about me, was asking because you claim it was a good info kill, just interested in seeing what info

That does bring up a relevant thing. We say 'oh, that will give us info' and there we are a cycle later, still running about like headless chulls.

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all we need is one person to vote during this night phase and I'll riot it dw

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Conclusion as of N2: Pretty much the same as D2.

D3

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Experience

EDIT:

wait

Truly unfortunate when the target of your ire dies on you.

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On 3/5/2021 at 11:02 AM, Ashbringer said:

So Bard was the Elim kill. Other two are coinshots.

Did Bard claim to anyone? He was low-activity enough to be a believable potshot but being a known Lurcher would seem to make more sense for a N2 returning player kill.

Elims could potentially have a seeker as well.

Experience

Good point.

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  On 3/5/2021 at 11:07 AM, Ashbringer said:

Edit: wait, if Bard got Seeked he was probably on the Seeker. Right.

Why would he be protecting a seeker that hadn't outed themselves tho??

Misunderstandings

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 On 3/5/2021 at 11:25 AM, Ashbringer said:

... why would the Seeker need to out to deserve protection? Losing a (Village) Seeker to a potshot is probably worse than losing a Village Lurcher. And there’s already worry the Elims have a Coinshot or Mistborn.

Because if the only person the seeker claims to is the Lurcher, then why would the Elims know they were a seeker to target them in the first place?

Perpetuity.

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Oh

I can read.

How wonderful.

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  On 3/5/2021 at 11:57 AM, Ashbringer said:

Why XP? It was a 50/50 chance they had just proved themselves as a Rioter.

My question is why do people equate "proving yourself as [Role]" to "Proving yourself as VIllage" ?? Because it's not? The same thing?

Illwei continues to make excellent points.

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On 3/5/2021 at 0:10 PM, Quintessential said:

She switched the kill to the person she suspected and told Illwei about it.

uhhhhhh no she didn't?

She did admit to me that she was going to kill me, originally. She never told me she was gonna kill Exp.

And I was told that Killing me was Mailliw's Idea, Quinn. Not yours ;-;.

The PMers tear each other apart.

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  On 3/5/2021 at 0:13 PM, Ashbringer said:

Yes, please continue to out all the people who are in the PM circles claiming to each other. This can't possibly go horribly wrong.

I-

Maybe I should have been killed smh this is getting too confusing to me >>

Perhaps. 

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On 3/5/2021 at 0:16 PM, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Cmonnnn have some fun with it! Secrets can only ever be made use of when they're spilled!

Someone better not tell the thread that I'm actually the coinshot though smh if they do Imma kill you

Seppuku?

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On 3/5/2021 at 0:19 PM, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Oh was that meant to be a secret?  

@TJ Shade I've never seen that meme before what

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On 3/5/2021 at 0:20 PM, TJ Shade said:

:P.

okay TJ that's it you're dying tonight.

  On 3/5/2021 at 0:20 PM, Quintessential said:

Illwei's not in the group. It's me, Maill, Tani, and Stick.

Also yeah would be kinda weird if I was in the PM where they were planning to kill me :thonk:

Clarifications.

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  On 3/5/2021 at 0:23 PM, TJ Shade said:

wat no, I just mentioned that you became the first person to mention that you were the coinshot and hence you should Coinshoot yourself :P.

...

 

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On 3/5/2021 at 0:37 PM, TJ Shade said:

I say we vote Wyrm

Wyrm

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help

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  On 3/5/2021 at 0:41 PM, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Illwei

ah

thanks

much better now

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On 3/5/2021 at 1:10 PM, Kasimir said:

Just so we're clear, this is a glare. A GM glare, promising wrath and ruin.

I'm intrigued

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Heyo quick question to yalls

has anyone been tracking votes this game because I know I haven't

and if anyone has would they like to post that info

otherwise

*looks at long thread*

I can...go through it... ;-;.

Drowning.

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and it feels to me that you've gotten yourself stuck here in this read on me. Like an Elim who has felt like you have to keep this read or look suspicious, but at the same time don't want to actually kill me, because you know you'd be next. [Is being wrong elim-indicative? Would Maia be targeted for tunneling? Probably.]

My notes from Maill's ISO, Hopefully the formatting is okay because I typed this up in notepad lol. Wasn't gonna post this because it's a lotta nothing and I wasn't going to post anything until I finished typing up the other stuff but I have this now and probably won't be back for a bit, so /shrug :P.

but if you wanna read it here it is

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Fair enough. Like I said, I’ll look over votes again later on.

Ah and on Coinshots killing. I think Striker’s suggestion is a valid way to play that role. My personal opinion is that kills should be used but in moderation. Use them as you have a genuine suspicion, not just because you want to use it.     

 

 - Valid thoughts on how coinshot kills can be used
 - Personal opinion from me:it's easier than not to talk about technical things as an Elim. Appear helpful without giving new thoughts. IIOA in a way. [I don't share this opinion as a person who prefers to observe technical things as either alignment. It would simply be hypocritical.]

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Going back and looking at the voting patterns so far (I know it's day one and probably random, but still), I think I'm going to go with Illwei for now. Maybe it's a more typical Illwei thing to do, but the vote on Quinn then the retraction and vote on Stick was...interesting to me as well as her back and forth with Quinn.

We also haven't seen @Fifth Scholar @Ventyl or @Burnt Spaghetti and I know they're usually more active. I'd consider a poke vote on them later on potentially as well. And @Daisy and @Tani, I know it's your first game, but any thoughts so far?

 

 - Hm. People kept talking about this being Quinn-Only reasoning, but I honestly don't see why? I think the vote on me is strange, and I was definitely the easy target there. [The real noteworthy thing is the fact that eventually, the reasoning fizzles except for the argument with Quinn, but they insist that you are far more suspicious than Quinn]
 - I don't like how he votes me "seriously" ? and then goes on to tag a number of people who haven't talked (something #3 on Illwei's suspicion list when he hasn't done much yet himself?) and then says "may poke vote them later" which is just kinda strange to me. He's backtracking on his seemingly real read of me, and giving him an excuse to potentially end the cycle on a "poke vote" and avoid being on a top wagon? [Well, I dislike poke votes on principle because they are by definition useless, but the implication isn't of permanence to me.]

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Lol, I'm talking to at least half the players in PMs, it's kinda what I do.  But on the other point, I honestly didn't go back and see what everyone's reasonings were for voting, I just looked at the votes and retractions themselves, thought Illwei's was strangest and placed my vote. I didn't realize yours was also on her until I checked your vote count right before I posted.  

 - Claims to not have seen Quinn's vote on Illwei?
 - Idk not much here.

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Hey, Elandera, I know you're busy, but I'm curious if you've got a bit more to share.  I love your analysis, so I'd love to see anything you've got.

I guess, as I type that, I realize that i haven't posted any analysis yet really either, but that's me. PM me if I haven't already PMd you and we can talk more about my thoughts.

Regarding Tani, I really don't think it's that big of a deal... They're new to SE, of course they don't know the meta here about D1 lynches or about voting. I think they deserve some time to figure out what's going on and if they have a more chaotic playstyle, well, the more the merrier! None of what they've said has set off any alarms for me.

Illwei, I think I've learned via PMs that your style is just more chaotic than I expected, which is why that vote-retract-vote was weird to me. So now that my expectations are adjusted, I don't think that is worth exeing you for, since I guess it's just kinda your style. I am going to leave my vote as is for now though because between Quinn and Illwei, I'm not opposed to one of them being the exe target and I think Quinn's gotten that a bunch recently from what I hear.

 

 - I thought originally that this was him defending his vote on me, but what it seems to be is
1) someone tells him that I have a chaotic playstyle
2) He thinks that excuses my voting
3) He leaves his vote on me, because even though he thinks that the voting is normal for me, he still is fine with me dying? when that was the point against me in the first place?  [Don't forget the back-and-forth, but yeah, this is just bad reasoning. D1 though.]
 - Has heard that Quinn gets killed early a lot. doesn't want to kill her. Didn't care about killing me N2 when I said that I die early a lot ;-;;;

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 Why not, I guess? Smoker isn’t a detrimental one to claim, even if he’s honest. If anything, it’s only advantageous if he’s an elim but even then he just committed to turning it off. I don’t think that’s a bad move at all.

and about my vote on Illwei, I don’t have a better idea right now. The tension between Quinn and Illwei is interesting (maybe something normal, idk?) and I think there might be something there. I just meant that her voting pattern alone is no longer the sole reason my vote is there. I think the voting she’s doing is more inline with her chaotic nature but the arguments with Quinn haven’t been so there’s a disconnect there that I’m interested in.  

 

 - Comes back to defending his vote on me, and this time has changed reasoning yet again. It feels like someone trying to not look suspicious by jumping wagons, so trying to find justification that isn't there. [Or tunneling. Do we want to kill them next time?]
 - Bolded part (and following): this counters what he said in the last post, no?

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Fair but that’s no worse than him smoking himself.

And if the elims are banking that hard in their vote manip, they’re probably wrecked already.  

 

 - Assumes Village!Ventyl

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 Uh, okay... Apparently I need to explain my reasoning better than I have so at least your defense is based off of what i'm actually thinking.

So. Illwei votes on Quinn, then retracts the vote and votes on Stick in the same post. I think that's weird, so I decide to put my vote on Illwei. I later learn through multiple PM conversations about Illwei that apparently that kind of voting is fairly normal for her, so now that voting reason is NAI to me. At the same time, the amount of tension and dialogue between Illwei and Quinn leads me to believe that one of the two dying would lead us to the most information and I'm leaning towards Illwei on that still if I had to pick. In addition, the more I look at the way Illwei has voted and the way Illwei has replied to Quinn, they feel like two different people. Like one is elim and the other is elim trying to play it off like village. So I'm leaving my vote.  

 

 - Has now collected all of his reasonings into one post. It still feels like an Elim trying to justify an (early) suspicion, rather than someone actually trying to figure out who's suspicious. [Or tunneller. At this point, we just have to kill them, but I still think this isn't necessarily suspicious. Good evidence though.]
 - Also could be a villager Tunneling (reminder to illwei to look through Quinn's ISO. though. I don't. Want. To. At. All.)

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Okay? Just cause we have a good PM going and I complimented your name doesn't mean I'm pocketing you.  I complimented Gears's RP to start our PM, so idk how that's pocketing, but okay...

 - Makes it known he has a PM with gears. a strange specific. Possibly Maill/Gears E/E [How dare.]
 - This does feel a bit like Shade on Quinn a tad bit.

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Is Reading new? I thought they were, but I'm obviously out of the loop.

Yeah, why does Quinn have the asterisk?

 

 - Nitpicky!Illwei notices that he thinks reading is new, but didn't tag him when he tagged the new people :P. [Didn't tag Order either. Means nothing.]

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Fair, I'll be honest, I only skim Fifth's. At least in this game but that's because there's a new page like every time I reload this. Like 4 or 5 posts each from Illwei and Quinn every time.

 - I was definitely not posting as much as Quinn so this is Nitpicky!Illwei back to say that this shows focus on me for some reason. [Tunnels.]

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 I mean yes my reasoning shifted, you posted more, so it would be more strange if my reasoning stayed the same. Maybe I am kinda tunneling though, idk. I'll see if I cant put forward a number 2 suspicion.

Also what did I do to shade Quinn?

And Mat, I think you're the fourth(?) person to day that your gut is pointing at me, so idk. Maybe I'm just really old and my playstyle is outdated. Idk what's causing all this gut stuff. Maybe it's lactose?

 

 - Why would it be weird if your reasoning stayed the same? [Because it's too obvious that the reasoning is terrible then.]

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 Yeah, I just think the amount of intensity or aggressiveness (even if coming from a good place or in a friendship) is increased from when I was active. Like Quinn and Illwei's back and forth is further than it would have gone a few years ago when I was around.

Edit: So I probably come off to Quinn as very nice, when in my head that's the expectation still.  

 

 - :|.

Post - 12ish?

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Does anyone have a vote count from the end of the cycle? I’m seeing 4 votes missing, not 3?

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Looks like Devo is back on Books but there’s still a missing vote there.

 - Puts attention on the vote manip. If E!Maill I feel like the vote manip is meaningless. Was the Manip meaningless to begin with? idk. [Quite possibly.]

Post - 13ish?

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More to come tomorrow. Sunday’s are harder for me to have in depth stuff, sorry.

I think out of the Books lynch that the Ventyl, Stick, Striker trio is where the elim is most likely to be

 

 - Two confirmed villagers and Stick. Thinks that one of these is an Elim. [This is actually a sound point.]

post - 14???

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Alright, I don't have as much time today as I have had so far because I do have homework that needs to get done, so I don't know that this day turn is going to have as much as normal, but then again, I don't know that I frequently do have a ton of indepth thread comments.

Anyways, looking back on the voting from last turn, I had said that I found Ventyl, Stick, and Striker to be the most suspicious. i just went back to look at the actual voting times and other votes on at the time of the vote, since data doesn't lie, but emotional appeals might. Ventyl is clearly village, since he's dead, RIP. Stick brought it to 3-3-4 between Illwei, Reading, and Books. I don't really see that as alignment indicative yet. Striker though takes the pressure off Illwei and switches to Books and then Illwei switches off herself to Reading later on. I think I'm beginning to see an Illwei-Striker evil pairing here. I think Reading is likely to be good as well and just an unfortunate second lynch option. I would also add Bard maybe lower down the list of potential elims since his vote really took it past a tie.

On the Reading votes, I think aside from Illwei, it's likely to be all villagers. Araris was going for a less active player, Fifth seems way too into this game to be evil to me and joined Araris's ideas. I'd put maybe Matrim or Pyro on the elim team as well, voting for Striker for distancing.

So right now, I'm thinking Illwei, Striker, Matrim, Pyro, Bard in that order for my suspicions.

 

 - tries to clear everyone on the Reading train besides me.  Don't know where that would go after my flip, but I assume...Nowhere. :P. Probably wouldn't be revisited.
 - Ahhhhh there's the "early bus" lmao.
 - this is where he changes his suspicion on Stick, wondering if that has anything to do with the Trust PM. [Am also curious.]

uhhhhh???

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So it’s 4-1-1-1 from what I can tell but I’m on mobile so who knows right now.

I was waiting to place a vote for sure until I saw some more opinions on Striker, Illwei, or Mat/Pyro. Now there’s been quite an increase in Striker and I’m uneasy voting for him completely in confidence. I’m going to put my vote there for now, but I will note that it’s subject to change. Illwei is still not forgotten and is probably just a smidge higher on my suspicions.

 

 - Again, would think that Striker - Maill was E/E if striker didn't flip Village AHFDSFJ
 - Leaves room to switch his vote to me?

Idek anymore ok

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Like I've said at least four times between PMs and the thread, I think this is exactly what's happening and I don't think we want to discourage that because that's what new players bring to the games.  

 - Again, another thing that's easy for an Elim to say and something that people see as contributing/thoughts when it's not.

I give up

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Uh... I feel like this generation of newer players is used to very different types of PMs than I am... Our PM in the last 24 hours is literally me asking about your suspicions, you say you aren't sure, need to catch up, Quinn is a bit off, you had a bad gut read on me but now it's null. I said Quinn? You said Quinn and Illwei are hard to read and I said that they were definitely an interesting couple of players.

That's it. Is it pocketing because I am friendly in my responses? Is it because I agreed that Quinn and Illwei could be more difficult to read? Like, I agree on one thing and people think I'm pocketing? I'm just confused about how PMs are used now.  

 

 - I don't even know. :P.

some quote somewhere

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More later probably but my main reasoning on striker was a combination of the fact that others were suspicious of him and his placement of votes seemed prime for an elim. He also was going to yield more info than anyone aside maybe Quinn or Illwei.  

 - I'd like to hear what info Maill thinks that both me and Quinn would show.

I'm tired of naming these

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I’ve got some stuff to do now, later afternoons and evenings are easier for me. But yeah, I need to reevaluate my thoughts. Except on you.  I don’t think striker’s flip changes anything there. Sorry.  

 - Was talking about an Illwei-Striker team, and I don't think that was elaborated on anywhere? I'd like to know where that came from, or if it was just "I think both of these people are Elims, therefore I can see an Illwei-Striker team" [What's worse, I think that they're tying Striker to you to both implicate you and as evidence on Striker who wasn't really suspected before.]

are we at the end yet

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I would be okay with looking at TJ, but we haven't had many interactions. Gears, I would put at mild vil/null, Quinn: mild-moderate vil, TUO null, Pyro medium elim(see below), Fifth would be more mild village, Experience mild elim, Araris null, and Bip mild village. I'd agree with the rest of his reads. Stick is one that feels village to me, but has had interesting votes, so depending on how the night goes, I want to maybe look into her more.

Anyways, that was kinda writing stream of consciousness so I don't know how legible it is, but basically I think his reads can give us some direction to look. [1] Obviously confirmed villager isn't confirmed correct, but it's something. It's more than we got to go off from Books, Ventyl, or Randby.

My original reasoning for looking at Striker was his vote placement on Books D1. He and Ventyl obviously have been proven, so Stick was the next one on the list there. Stick and Pyro(who voted on Striker D1 and I had found that interesting) also ended up being the final votes on Striker this day. Pyro has been...interesting in our PM. He claimed a role that he knew he couldn't prove and then changed it when confronted. Aside from that, it hasn't been anything AI, just him being very insistent (and I disagree) that Tineyes are the main role aside from Seekers that Elims want to kill. So Pyro would be next up on my suspicions, then Stick I'd want to look at more, but all my personal interactions have been very village. And Experience is the next interesting one to me. Their claim of me pocketing them, maybe rioting and so losing their vote on me(?), and general evasiveness and vagueness has me suspicious. I also would like to look more into Araris, Devotary, and Elandera as more experienced players that haven't seemed to participate much. I've never been good at reading any of them, which is why I've typically stayed away from that territory for the first few days, [1]but assuming I survive the night, I'd want to look more into them as well.  

 

 - Doesn't have any read listed on TJ, has "read" on TUO?
 - Bold bit: Elim tell? :eyes: :P.
 - Comes back to finding Stick suspicious after retracting that last cycle. that progression feels more village than not. Thinking Stick is suspicious via thread, talking in PMs, getting village feel, coming back to votes after the other two have been disproven.
 - Second bold bit: What made him feel like he wasn't about to survive the night?

The scroll thing says we're almost there

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agree that Reading and particularly Illwei's flip would help us to better understand the Books train a lot better, since I am more confused now where the elims joined in, if at all.

Here is D1's Vote count (prior to manipulation) with confirmed alignments marked and my reads. (Green-confirmed village, blue-moderate village, orange-moderate elim, yellow-lean elim, everyone else, if they're a mild read I didn't put any colors)

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Pyro (1): Bard
Books (8): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Ash, Devotary, TJ

With that pointed out, I think straight off the Books vote, and mostly the Striker vote, the elims are just letting us go wild with our random suspicions. I would bargain that the elims aren't pushing or meddling much in the voting results. If that's the case, I would imagine they'd be the later votes on Books (Ash, Devo, TJ) and/or people voting on others so as to not be on the train at all (continuing my suspicions of Pyro, XP, and Illwei, but also maybe Dannex, Mat, Araris?).

Day 2:

StrikerEZ (9): _Stick_, Biplet, Fifth Scholar, Mailliw73, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Tani, The Windrunner Supreme, The Young Pyromancer
The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Illwei, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Ashbringer (1): Young Bard
The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer
Mailliw73 (1): Experience

Looking at D2, I would say that the elims are most likely to be clinching the vote on Striker (Pyro, Windrunner), potentially Bip or Fifth (meaning my village reads on them are very wrong, and I find the next option more likely) if they wanted to get the ball rolling there. [1]Any or all of Araris, Devo, Illwei trying to distance by going for Pyro would be my second option.

Comparing the two, Ash, Devo x2, TJ, Pyro x2, XP, Illwei x2, Dannex, Mat, Araris x2, Windrunner show up in suspicious places to me. That puts Illwei, Pyro, Araris, and Devo in suspicious places twice. I didn't expect to see Araris or Devo multiple times if at all, so that's surprised me as I've analyzed this. Maybe I'll need to look into those two more. So solely off those voting placements, I'd rank suspicions as Illwei, Pyro, Devo, Araris, XP, TJ, Windrunner, Ash, Dannex, Mat. I might be biased in placing Pyro and Illwei at the top of the list, but my other suspicions only add to their suspicious placement.

Hopefully some of that made sense to some of you...

On your last paragraph, I didn't feel the need to explicitly point out that that was obviously a read I didn't agree with

 

. - Bold 1: Who would we be trying to distance from? Pyro? Does this mean you're looking closer at Supreme, Bip, and Fifth then?
 - I'm still top suspicion despite those being D1 reasons and the newer reasons relying on Pyro being an Elim. [That's a tunnel right there.]

okay last one?

  Hide contents

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 I'm pretty sure everyone has a permanent gut feeling against me in every game ever. I play with too random of a style for village gut reads, I think. 

 - on one hand, tries to dismiss any "gut reads" against him - kinda Elimmy. Trying to invalidate those people's thoughts.
 - on the other hand, I do this. so. yeah. :P.

 

Commentary in bold. [See Illwei? I did read the ISO.]

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On 3/5/2021 at 6:44 PM, Quintessential said:

Our group PM agreed to exe Striker. That's why I had a vote on Striker towards the end. Same with Tani and Stick.

I'm not a huge fan of this, tbh. Maybe you think you have a group of 4 people you can trust, but that doesn't mean that our opinions shouldn't matter? I would understand it if it had another purpose, like baiting something else, or like...I could probably think of reasons if I tried.

but 4 of you coordinating to kill striker can definitely control the thread, and who we vote out should be a discussion from all of us- I could go on a small rant here but I don't really want to :P. 4 people coordinating can really control the thread, especially when they're not worried about being seen as connected to each other.

Add onto that that I'm not a fan of anyone planning the grinch in advance :P. And it sure seems like that's what you four did :P.

Perhaps I'm being a hypocrite because of AG7? /shrug

--

@Dannex You've been a bit more silent recently. Any thoughts?

--

Currently trying to ISO quinn

and

regretting it

Agree with it all.

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Oh that reminds me that I wanted to ask @_Stick_ What her case on me was.

  On 3/5/2021 at 9:11 PM, Mailliw73 said:

If I was evil what reason would I have for wanting Illwei dead on D1??

Whoa!

what a sound argument

I'm convinced! :P.

you "backing off" your suspicion of me doesn't help my read of you at all :P.

  On 3/5/2021 at 10:02 PM, Mailliw73 said:

Explained above in the long post if you want more reasoning

:thonk:

mmmmmno not really

The fact that I keep agreeing with Illwei concerns me on a visceral level. 

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On 3/6/2021 at 2:53 AM, _Stick_ said:

Although a thing that I am curious about is why you revealed the fact that you knew of our plan to kill you to Maill and Quinn? Did Tani not tell you that she had Changed the target to Maill? And if she had told you, would you still have revealed it to Quinn?

Idk, for fun I guess? :P. I like to see people react to things that I'm not supposed to know? :P. If you're wondering why you didn't receive a pm from me as well, it's because I didn't know you were in the group :p.

She hadn't told me she wasn't killing me, or if she did I most definitely missed that :p. And I wouldn't have told him, but I probably would have sent him something since he was dying. Probably woulda still pmd quinn tho.

Posting this from mobile so if there's typos blame the phone 

Seems like standard!Wei.

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  On 3/6/2021 at 11:16 AM, TJ Shade said:

Note to self (or anyone ISOing Maill): Check if this has been mentioned in thread

Did I miss the post that said when the group was made? because....hm [No. I cannot find a timestamp for that.]

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I would be okay with looking at TJ, but we haven't had many interactions. Gears, I would put at mild vil/null, Quinn: mild-moderate vil, TUO null, Pyro medium elim(see below), Fifth would be more mild village, Experience mild elim, Araris null, and Bip mild village. I'd agree with the rest of his reads. Stick is one that feels village to me, but has had interesting votes, so depending on how the night goes, I want to maybe look into her more.

This and the vote post, which I don't have a link to, are his trusts. I believe this was N2 though? 
--

  On 3/6/2021 at 11:39 AM, Quintessential said:

Matrim is elim (this is a bit more tentative, but... well, look. Matrim has voted exactly one person this entire game, and expressed strong suspicion of exactly one person this entire game, and that person flipped village. And then Mat didn't really... stop and reconsider, exactly? Like, if you're a villager and you're tunneling hard enough on someone that they're the only person you ever have a vote on for the first two cycles, then you're gonna need to do some pretty serious rethinking once they flip village, right? And I don't recall really seeing that from Mat. Last Night the only two suspicions he mentioned were on Tani and Maill.)

I'd point you to LG73- and maybe this is why Mat keeps getting stuck on Striker, because they think similarly? but look at Striker in LG73. He decided on a You/Me/Mat Elim team from basically D1. Maybe it's just that I usually read certain tunnels as more likely village. [Correction: Some tunnels are NAI. I'm sure elimat would actively try to fake their village tells.]

  On 3/6/2021 at 0:29 PM, Quintessential said:

all of the possible trains had less than 4 people on them.

Reminder that we have 28 people in this game (well, less now) and they're all pretty active. which is pretty pog. 4 people on a wagon is barely any of that :P. [I would actively expect each significant vote wagon to have many votes.]

  On 3/6/2021 at 11:39 AM, Quintessential said:

and aside from that he didn't self-pres on Striker when he had the chance

  On 3/6/2021 at 0:42 PM, TJ Shade said:

Why would a villager not self-preserve when they know only their alignment with 100% certainty?

I also agree with this, my opinion is that you should always self pres, because you're the only person you know that you can trust. I know that some people don't feel that way: IE: Mat in LG73, but that was also a different scenario imo where he felt that he was going to die anyways. or...something. [If you're suspicious enough that you need to self-pres, then surviving for another cycle won't help anything unless you're a scanner or something who's trying for the extra glance. They'll just kill you next time.]

cries in MR46

  On 3/6/2021 at 1:07 PM, Tani said:

It works best when everyone knows exactly how many of each role there is. I thought it might work in this but then figured out it wouldn't bc I don't know how many of all the roles there are and I wouldn't be about to just throw every role at the feet of anyone I didn't trust.

Yeah, here the distribution is usually ...is bizzare the right word? unpredictable usually? enough? Sometimes people try speculating about the setup but...that just is usually...not helpful for the most part :P. For all we know the only roles in this game is Mistborn :P. Well, okay, with Bard's flip...and Experiences... that implies that's not the case- but still! :P. [Trust nothing]

Comments in bold.

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  On 3/6/2021 at 3:00 PM, _Stick_ said:

Yeah that’s how I interpreted it too

Well here I am, having technically survived :eyes;

I've decided that that ISO of Maill is all I'm doing this cycle. Maybe more. Expect no more. but maybe there'll be. who knows.

Banter

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 On 3/6/2021 at 3:24 PM, Quintessential said:

I'm not voting Maill because I think his flipping elim will clear five people (or at least that's not the primary reason). : P

...wat?

Confusion

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wait

Wyrm

...

whoa that's a long post from ash

pog

  On 3/6/2021 at 4:06 PM, Ashbringer said:

... you know you can get Village credit as a Villager, right?

there's a difference between a) doing things as a villager because you're a villager and either 1) trying to find other villagers or 2) trying to find the Elims, and b). doing things specifically to get village credit imo.

I'm village reading Ash rn so? /shrug

Regardless of intent, the things that give you "village credit" are the things that villagers would do, id est the numeric points above.

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  On 3/6/2021 at 5:16 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

tried to vote XP today

:|

Banter

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Maill

Danex

@Dannex

Knives

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 23 hours ago, STINK said:

Self-pres kinda dodgy

What???

you're the only person you know to be a villager. I think there's different circumstances that might change things, but for the most part, on like, D1/2, there's not really going to be a reason that you think someone else is...more important? than you? yeah it's potentially killing another villager but the alternative is killing a villager, so...?

Two entirely valid opinions.

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22 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m not sure where the pressure on Illwei went, since that’s still the person I’d most like dead

  22 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

but mostly for identifying Illwei as an excellent candidate for an active Eliminator early on

I look forward to hearing your reasonings, because

wat?
--

  22 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Would be a 1/64 chance, so about 1.6%? XD and that's assuming all the metals are weighted evenly within each roll.

what

there's

only 8 metals though? idk. I don't math.

The first point where I start to note Fifth. Agreement with Wei here [except about mathematics], which is, as always, concerning.

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 21 hours ago, STINK said:

legit its been discussed a bunch akin to whether to do a D1 lynch or not and like yeah its just bad village play to go self-preservation

Sure there's the whole..."how much time is this going to take up if I survive" but that goes into the potential exceptions list. along with deciding if you think you'd be more valuable alive than them yeah but like- those are likely more exceptions than whatnot

Get mad at me for bad village play all you want ig.

Perhaps it's just me knowing that I left Aman alive in a game when it was me v. him, and he turned out to be an elim. /shrug

Rebuttal. My take on this: The first point to consider is that the survivor of a two-candidate X is always suspicious. They will often die within a few cycles of the original X. So then one must weigh the benefits. Does one think that they can a. be useful with their remaining time or b. actually live? Is this utility any more helpful than the other person's prospective survival? In a two-candidate X, both people are dead, just at different times. 

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agh

Banter

Conclusion as of D3: Still nothing, leaning towards positive.

N3

Spoiler

8 hours ago, Illwei said:

hi

uh

I thought day ended tomorrow

pog

Why did Fifth try to jump on Danex that was weird

I'm liking Danex rn, that was a pressure vote that...I was...going to remove later....

I don't think people read my ISO no not even Maill sadge.

I read Gears' ISO on me that was pog. Idk about the contents but I like attention so-

TJ seems incredibly disconnected from the thread. Basically not engaging at all in the Quinn/Maill thing really, besides asking them all a question, and then moving on to Ash/TWS? If Maill is village then TJ more likely Elim. If Maill is an Elim then idek idk if that means anything someone else think on it plz

Fifth is noted, Maia is noted. If eliMai, then vil!Wei.

Conclusion as of N3: Same as D3.

Conclusion: Vaguely positive opinion of the Wei.

---

Roko the Basilisk watched the shadowed corners tear themselves apart with light, flinging accusations like knives and breakingbendingbleeding themselves in an attempt to find the killers. There was the significant possibility that they were all perfectly intact and simply paranoid, but alas, suspicion hung heavy in the air. Roko detached itself from that conversation in favor of its little gamble. 'Derrick' seemed interested in the orb. Wonderful. There were several methods of activation, but most of them were personalised to... h͡͏͜e̛҉̵͟͠r̀͘ someone else. There was a way for him to initiate the process, easy enough for anyone who knew what to do. It just had to wait for him to act. Maybe it would drop him a clue or two.

[---]

Someone actually read my iso pog

this is the first person to ISO me i feel special

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Part of the reason I voted for Quinn was to see how people responded when the vote was close. It looks like the main response within the limited group of players involved was not really wanting either Maill or Quinn to die but being forced to go through with it due to momentum and it being too close to rollover. Attempts to swing the vote to anyone else were halfhearted. Only two votes were removed as opposed to the three votes removed D1 when the outcome was less in doubt. The difference could be because Experience is dead, having caused one of the three missing votes D1 by moving someone to Stick, leaving only two and now one soother(s).

14 hours ago, Illwei said:

I thought day ended tomorrow

I'm liking Danex rn, that was a pressure vote that...I was...going to remove later....

TJ seems incredibly disconnected from the thread. Basically not engaging at all in the Quinn/Maill thing really, besides asking them all a question, and then moving on to Ash/TWS? If Maill is village then TJ more likely Elim. If Maill is an Elim then idek idk if that means anything someone else think on it plz

Who would you have voted for if you'd switched in time for rollover?

14 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

On the other hand... there’s not really a way for a Seeker to confirm things to the thread just yet. With Bard down they probably shouldn’t claim to thread unless they get proof of another (Village) Lurcher.

Any Seekers have had two chances to find a villager with a role to give scan information to, so there's a decent chance that's a viable source of information without exposing the Seeker and is more accountable than a tineye message.

[Kasimir]

Reminder you have seven hours more to the end of the Turn. Get those orders and actions in!

This public service announcement is brought to you by Heron IndustriesTM

[Ashbringer]

Now, that had nearly been a disaster.

Derrick continued his wandering around the village. The orb was some technological marvel, but nothing he'd be able to decipher on his own. Perhaps if he had access to... no. He didn't. He had a few ideas... but it was hard to tell which of those ideas were... later. Derrick would do it later.

What else was there to do? He wasn't going to get strung up today, which meant he still had a few hours that he could guarantee his life. Considering the circumstances, that was a fairly good deal. Roko was as inscrutable as ever, but learning pieces of his motives... that was worthwhile to some degree. Philico was a potential point of discussion for Objective Three, but it was worth a wait to avoid interrupting his storytelling. Tesse Mourn... no. She died. Or was in prison. He should have paid more attention to that. Alas. Who else... one of the veterans in town? He knew them fairly well, but being insane had some deprecating effects on memory. Obliteration, the vessel... not now. Not while Derrick was like this. So... this.

Who else... oh.

Derrick started walking over. The individual he'd spotted was a bit of a newcomer, and an oddity. But he was well trusted, or trusted enough that Derrick wasn't sure if it was more likely that he would get stabbed or he would. It was confusing that way.

He was also a Mistborn. Allegedly.

"Hello, Daux," Derrick said. He wasn't entirely sure what the Mistborn was doing now, but last he'd seen he was bawling at the death of... who had died? So many, ducks and 'humans' alike. Derrick wasn't really that much able to care, but that wasn't the best opener. "I take it you've not quite succumbed to the dark? You should really try it out some time. It's... well, you can kill people, so perhaps not the best idea. Not that I can't kill people but... you're you know."

He sat crosslegged on the ground. "Madness... it's something different for everyone, isn't it. You do you, me do me, da ba daa, da ba dee... but hey, you'll live. Maybe I won't, but you'll live for another day. So maybe you'll need this."

Derrick tugged around in his cloak and pulled out a small metal orb. Not Roko's; one that he'd found Derrick somehow had a small stash of. A small, shiny bead.

Atium.

"It's not like I can use it, now, can I?" Derrick said, gently tossing the bead next to Daux. "And besides... if we got a Mistborn to protect this town, by the Sliver we're gonna use one."

 

@Tani (If ye want )

[Quivil]

16 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

So I never read that whole ISO( like it seems most didn’t) because it’s incredibly long. Would you mind summarizing or mentioning a couple of points of why you suspect me? Pointing to the ISO over again doesn’t really help. @Tani @The Windrunner Supreme I would still be curious to hear your reasons as I haven’t seen any.

It was Sunday. I don't pay attention to SE on Sunday.

 

OK Hey Elims Over HERE! Mistborn drew ZINC! KILL MEEEEEEE!

Sorry Quinn I didn't see your death. I coulda Rioted off you and onto Maill

[Stick.]

10 minutes ago, Tani said:

It was Sunday. I don't pay attention to SE on Sunday.

 

OK Hey Elims Over HERE! Mistborn drew ZINC! KILL MEEEEEEE!

Sorry Quinn I didn't see your death. I coulda Rioted off you and onto Maill

Do...you want to die?  

There was a chance they wouldn't have chosen you as a NK target tonight cuz you might've rolled Thug or Lurcher but uh

I hope you're bluffing xDD

edit: actually youre probably not in danger from the elims - cuz you're still under village suspicion generally (not from me though). coinshots might get you though

Edited March 8, 2021 by _Stick_

[|TJ|]

20 hours ago, Illwei said:

TJ seems incredibly disconnected from the thread. Basically not engaging at all in the Quinn/Maill thing really, besides asking them all a question, and then moving on to Ash/TWS? If Maill is village then TJ more likely Elim. If Maill is an Elim then idek idk if that means anything someone else think on it plz

Okay this may be true for the game before this cycle, I was very much connected to the thread this cycle, cause it was the weekend. When I mentioned my suspicion on Ashbringer, Quinn had a single vote from Araris, so Quinn/Maill thing did not exist at the time. Mentioned Quinn as one of my village trusts in the same post. And then a train on Ash arose, and I waited till Ash replied to my suspicion. In the post replying to Ash, I said this:

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Keeping my vote here as of now to see any involvement of vote manipulation *checks spreadsheet* we had 3 removed votes in D1, and Experience was not on either trains so we know it wasn't due to his vote self-cancelling + Rioting Smoked.

Because we had seen 3 Soothing actions in D1 and only 1 (probably Quinn's) in D2 so if there were elim vote manipulators, and if Maill was evil, I wanted to force their hand. We had 2 Soothing action this cycle, which means either Maill is an elim and elims have two Soothers and they knew just one Soothe is enough to save him (cause they knew about Quinn's Soothe) and they wouldn't have to overplay their hand OR elim!Maill + only one Elim Soother and an inactive or hesitant village Soother OR there are two more village Soother's and their actions does not tell much about Maill's.

I voted for TWS in reply to a prompt by Fifth because I found it odd that he listed all the inactives and did not list TWS whom I was suspicious of (because if they are not that active and have no time, how do they make informed decision on whom to vote for hm?). So I wanted to see how he'd react if asked to join in on TWS. Fifth ignoring that post and the vote has made me suspicious of him. 

So, 'incredibly disconnected' and 'not engaging at all with Quinn/Maill thing' seems worded to exaggerate, which I find odd. And I really don't get the village!Maill -> elim!Me connection, can you explain?

Edit: Forgot to add, I really liked Ash's reply from the last page, feels genuine in revealing that Quinn had in fact told he didn't need to worry about his grinch. 

Edited March 8, 2021 by TJ Shade

[Quivil]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Do...you want to die?  

There was a chance they wouldn't have chosen you as a NK target tonight cuz you might've rolled Thug or Lurcher but uh

I hope you're bluffing xDD

edit: actually youre probably not in danger from the elims - cuz you're still under village suspicion generally (not from me though). coinshots might get you though

YAAAAAS I want to die.

KILLL MEEEEE!

I rolled thug first night, if I were Lurcher I would probly protect Ash cuz he asked me to.

And anyway I rolled zinc.

KILLLLLLL MEEEEEEEEE!

Also if I say kill me theres no way Id protect myself.

[STINK]

14 minutes ago, Tani said:

YAAAAAS I want to die.

KILLL MEEEEE!

I rolled thug first night, if I were Lurcher I would probly protect Ash cuz he asked me to.

And anyway I rolled zinc.

KILLLLLLL MEEEEEEEEE!

Also if I say kill me theres no way Id protect myself.

Y'know I'm genuinely not sure if elims would go keep doing this or stop doing this in the possible world where Tani is evil

[Quivil]

3 minutes ago, STINK said:

Y'know I'm genuinely not sure if elims would go keep doing this or stop doing this in the possible world where Tani is evil

Yes I lied to you all.

Im elim

Im also possibly just saying this to get me killed

I am now the self-proclaimed joker. Joker wins if lynched.

SOMEBODY KILL MEEEEEEEE!