Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Theres been chaos, a tonne of village deaths and wyrm has been very nice to Kas

In. What. World  

[Illwei]

So I can PM the replacement and tell them that I know their stuff and they can't tell me that I don't pog

I don't really think that's gonna be all that useful but /shrug

3 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

Don't suppose anyone would mind giving me the tl;dr version of the game to date?

I'd be lying if i said I could remember anything that happened this game

[Ashbringer he/him]

Yup. And we're fairly certain there's an Elim Seeker, because the Elims have hit one vanilla, one Lurcher, and one Coinshot.

... man, Biplet loved to kill Smokers for some reason 

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

... man, Biplet loved to kill Smokers for some reason 

were you scared? :ph34r;

Edited March 9, 2021 by Illwei

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

10 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

 

Don't suppose anyone would mind giving me the tl;dr version of the game to date?
First person totally isn't evil.
 

Oh, and if it helps:

Quicklinks

Original post
Day one 
Night one
Day two
Night two
Day three
Night Three

 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

9 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

Greetings and salutations all!

Don't suppose anyone would mind giving me the tl;dr version of the game to date?
First person totally isn't evil.
Thanks!

Honestly, I've been trying to figure that out myself, but there are 40 pages of backlog to go through, and it's kind of a pain. Doesn't help that the forum doesn't have an ISO feature. Right now most everyone wants to murder Mailliw for being nice and wanting to swap roles (and being the close alternative to Quinn last cycle).

I don't really have any suspicion of Mailliw (although, as mentioned, I haven't really gone back through everything), but I know that he and I used to clash a fair amount, in the same way that Kas and I did. He has a totally different approach to roleclaiming in PMs from me. However, I think Mailliw actually has a better grasp on PM safety than a lot of the other current players, and I have come to respect his playstyle for being just as effective as mine.

I did pseudo ISOs of Gears and Matrim, which I'll put below. For now I'm going to vote on Gears, largely because his defensive play this game is something that is easier to do as an elim (or at least being aggressive is harder as an elim, because you can't actually suspect anyone). It also seems inconsistent with his vote on Mailliw this cycle.

Matrim:

Spoiler

 

Early vote on Striker. Comments are inconsistent with his tunnel

Later gives a reads list. Interesting that Books is on that list and is grinched

Doesn’t want to kill an inactive. No reason given.

More reads. Illwei, Quinn, and Bip as village, Striker, Mailliw, and Tani as evil.

Is more willing to grinch Books than leave a vote on Striker

Also doesn’t really push for others to vote Striker

Starts D2 with immediate vote on Striker.

New order of suspicions is Striker - Bard/Exp - Mailliw - Tani

Gives a comprehensive list of arguments against Striker. Honestly nothing here feels like a particularly great reason to me. Partly because I didn’t have super well-formed reads at this point, and a lot of the suspicion seems to come from disagreement on those lines.

Reaction to the Striker flip feels maybe village

D3 vote on Stick

Suspicions are Stick/Araris/Mailliw/Ash. Guess Striker flip changed all reads except Mailliw

Switches to vote on Mailliw. Ash is no longer a suspicion?

Responds to Quinn reads post. Seems to be mostly a defense, agrees on ~½ of her reads

I moved down is the suspicions list I guess.

D4 immediately votes Mailliw

Summary: I don’t get a firm read either way, so he could be an active elim. Tunnels on Striker and Mailliw are worrying. Not a priority grinch target though, since he’s actively contributing to the thread.

Gears:

Spoiler

Rule analysis

Neutral read on Striker, village on Stick and Books

Change to suspicion on Books and a vote. Defends both Illwei and Quinn. The Books train is of course the one that carries the day.

Doesn’t trust Illwei, also doesn’t like the tie. Seems like his vote is one of the more honest ones on Books

Some comments on the D1 votes, but nothing really substantial

Notes IRL business

Very strong reaction to a vote by TJ

Does like Striker or Ash as grinch options (I agree)

Ultimately doesn’t vote D2

Thinks that very few votes have had their own reasoning this game.

D3 has reasonable interpretation of the Bard kill

Strongly disagrees with PM group votes on Striker

Has Mailliw (?Maia?=?Mailliw?) as NAI, incomplete ISO of Illwei

Finished ISO of Illwei with a positive read

Summary: Seems to be doing a lot of defending and not much pushing. Hard to have a great read here because this might be due to IRL stuff, but I’ve got an elim read overall. Easier to defend than attack as an elim. Sort of complicated by the fact that I agree with all the meta comments he’s made, but those are mostly NAI.

I'll also point out that we are basically toast if we don't find an elim this cycle or next (more so if the elims have a Mistborn that rolls Steel). For that reason, I don't think it makes sense to just pick up right where we left off last cycle. There's too much risk of that leading into a couple of misgrinches and game end. Regardless of who we actually vote out this cycle, a bunch of one-liner votes with no reasoning and a lack of alternatives just doesn't help us that much.

I guess it's also worth thinking about the profile of the elim team. They basically are guaranteed to have a Seeker. I'd guess at a Mistborn as well that rolled Bronze, since hitting 2 village power roles in 2 turns seems rather improbable. The elim team would have wanted to scan Bard and Bip, and they killed Randby. So overall their focus has been on less active players. That suggests that they haven't felt too threatened by anyone in the thread having a lot of village cred. So the elims are likely either comfortable with how the discussion in thread has been going, or they have enough players actively engaged in it that they feel like they can control it on their own. Either way, the focus on less active players makes me think we need to broaden our suspicions.

And this whole post might be super rambling and incohesive. I haven't really read over any of this, so hopefully it makes sense.

[Illwei]

I was thinking about collecting some of the more analysis-y posts to put here but idk if you'd read them or if by the time I collect them there will already be a useful tldr or whatnot

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Right now most everyone wants to murder Mailliw for being nice and wanting to swap roles

hi did no one read my iso of Maill or Mat's commentary on said ISO i-

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

 

hi did no one read my iso of Maill or Mat's commentary on said ISO i-

I didn't, wanna give a tldr refresher for the lazy folks

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I was thinking about collecting some of the more analysis-y posts to put here but idk if you'd read them or if by the time I collect them there will already be a useful tldr or whatnot

hi did no one read my iso of Maill or Mat's commentary on said ISO i-

You and Mat don't make up the majority of players that are voting Mailliw (and no, I haven't).

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Damn Mat had a PM with Daisy huh?

I was referencing Tani :P.

Edit:

20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Right now most everyone wants to murder Mailliw for being nice and wanting to swap roles (and being the close alternative to Quinn last cycle).

Already been said, but... that's not why. Not even close :P.

21 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Comments are inconsistent with his tunnel

...How so?

22 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Gives a comprehensive list of arguments against Striker. Honestly nothing here feels like a particularly great reason to me. Partly because I didn’t have super well-formed reads at this point, and a lot of the suspicion seems to come from disagreement on those lines.

Yeah I'm not gonna fight this. I know a lot of it wasn't super great reasoning- I only put together that list because Striker asked me to, and it was an attempt to find reason for my mainly gut read that only half worked.

23 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Guess Striker flip changed all reads except Mailliw

That it did. Totally not because my other suspicions were the people defending Striker

24 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Tunnels on Striker and Mailliw are worrying.

Also not gonna fight this- I'm not normally tunnely, but this game I just feel like I have no clue what's going on, so I latch on to something because I don't see anything else. Which is my bad but I hope Maill's flip clears something up for me.

I personally don't think the elims have a Mistborn- I would guess Smoker, Soother, Seeker at this point, possibly a Lurcher? Idk.

Edited March 9, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Illwei]

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

(and no, I haven't).

;-;

Just now, Burnt Spaghetti said:

I didn't, wanna give a tldr refresher for the lazy folks

Mat even gave a summary of my summary of the ISO I-

did

okay one sec I'm going to get the quotes okay ah

 

uhhh so some things tht may or may not be important, collected, for hael, if he cares

Spoiler

Illwei's ISO on Maill, And Mat's commentary

Spoiler

 

idk some posts with vc analysis?

Spoiler

Mat

Spoiler

On 3/5/2021 at 1:09 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

I have color-coded final counts :P. (Pre-manip)

If they're bold they're confirmed village- disclaimer being I bolded myself  

D1:

  Reveal hidden contents

• Shard of Reading (4): Araris Valerian, Fifth Scholar, Illwei, Flyingbooks
• StrikerEZ (2): The Young Pyromancer, Matrim's Dice
• _Stick_ (1): Experience
• Illwei (1): Mailliw73
• Quintessential (1): Dannex
• Flyingbooks (9): Gears, Quintessential, Ventyl, _Stick_, StrikerEZ, Young Bard, Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity, TJ Shade

Of note: Striker train was all village. I don't remember if the Reading train was in response to Books or if it was in response to Striker, but it likely doesn't matter too much as Books was village. I think there are likely some elims on Books. I'd be shocked if there weren't.

D2:

  Reveal hidden contents

• StrikerEZ (9): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Mailliw73, Quintessential, Fifth Scholar, Tani, Biplet, The Young Pyromancer, _Stick_
• The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Illwei, StrikerEZ, Devotary of Spontaneity, TJ Shade
• Ashbringer (1): Young Bard
• Mailliw73 (1): Experience
• The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer

Of note: Leading two trains both being village. Wouldn't be surprised though if the Pyro one had more than one elim on it. Also worthy of note: How many unconfirmeds there are on Striker's train. Though this being only a cycle later that's not too surprising.

Conclusions: My main suspects are probably Stick and Araris after looking at this and remember my gut impressions of the game so far. Following that probably is Maill, though if Stick/Maill are evil they're doing a good job staying distanced. 

Edit: And Ash, to a lesser extent.

 

Maill

Spoiler

On 3/5/2021 at 3:28 PM, Mailliw73 said:

i wanted to get an updated version of this out while I'm thinking over what happened this morning. This is like Bard's but updated with new deaths. I'm also going to take my reads out of it, sinc apparently XP and Pyro were village... 

Here is D1's Vote count (prior to manipulation) with confirmed alignments marked and my reads. 

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Pyro (1): Bard
Books (8): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Ash, Devotary, TJ

^These were my thoughts yesterday when evaluating. Clearly Pyro and XP were wrong suspicions, but even then, I can't shake Illwei completely. I'll leave off on her for the sake of this post at least though. Like Mat, I think at least one of (Ash, Devo, TJ) are likely to be evil from that Books exe. I'm not sure that Dannex, Mat, Araris really have much from this day's vote that actually makes me suspect them, especially the more that we see the people not on the two main exe candidates flip village. 

Day 2:

StrikerEZ (9): _Stick_, Biplet, Fifth Scholar, Mailliw73, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Tani, The Windrunner Supreme, The Young Pyromancer
                     Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Mailliw73, Quintessential, Fifth Scholar, Tani, Biplet, The Young Pyromancer, _Stick_

The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Illwei, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Ashbringer (1): Young Bard
The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer
Mailliw73 (1): Experience

I think I have to reevaluate my thoughts entirely on the Striker train. I may have blinded myself by putting reads on there, because Quinn and Tani, along with Mat, end up in the crucial spot there for clinching that exe. Wait, I realized as typing this that the order of the votes that I copied is different from what Mat has... Storms, have I been using the wrong order? I added Mat's order in the second line. If Mat's order is correct, then Quinn, Fifth, Tani, and Bip would be in the crucial spot, with Stick being of note. Huh. That changes things to have it in this order. Tani revealing herself in thread as mistborn doesn't seem like an elim ploy, but maybe that's the point? Idk, not willing to commit to that yet. I'd put Quinn higher on the suspicion list than Tani. Bip and Fifth showing up in an interesting spot is new though...

Taking my final takeaways from yesterday, I would say that I would take Araris, Dannex, Windrunner, and Mat off the list of interesting spots, adding Quinn and Fifth and Bip there instead. 

New suspicions order just from this: Illwei, Devo, Quinn, Ash, Fifth, TJ, Bip. With Tani maybe after them. 

I'll post more later with reactions to this thread so far, but wanted to get this up so I could think on it before I do that. 

Quinn

Spoiler

On 3/6/2021 at 9:39 AM, Quintessential said:

Here's the stuff I was gonna post. It saved in my editor, and I ended up adding onto it and... yeah. Purple denotes anyone who is confirmed village (in my eyes, so yes, I'm marked as purple here when I appear).

C1 votes (you don't need to read this):

  Reveal hidden contents

Araris voted Reading
Striker voted Gears
Pyro voted Striker
Matrim voted Striker
Quinn voted Striker
Illwei voted Quinn
Illwei voted Stick
Quinn voted Illwei
Stick voted Books
Dannex voted Quinn
Stick unvoted Books
Maill voted Illwei
Striker unvoted Gears
Bard voted Pyro
Striker voted Illwei
XP voted Stick
Tani voted Matrim
Tani voted Quinn
Illwei unvoted Stick
Illwei voted TJ
Quinn voted Maill
Quinn unvoted Maill
Fifth voted Reading
Biplet voted Illwei
Quinn voted Illwei
Illwei voted Illwei
Quinn unvoted Illwei
Gears voted Books
Biplet unvoted Illwei
Quinn voted Books
Tani voted Reading
Ventyl voted Books
Stick voted Books
Tani unvoted Reading
Striker voted Books
Ash voted Reading
Illwei voted Reading
Bard voted Books
Ash voted Books
Devotary voted Books
Books voted Reading
TJ voted Books

C2 votes (you don't need to read this):

  Reveal hidden contents

Matrim voted Striker
Striker voted Stick
Bard voted Ash
Illwei voted Tani
Windrunner voted Striker
Quinn voted Striker
Tani voted Striker
Maill voted Striker
Striker voted Tani
Tani unvoted Striker
Stick voted Ash
Quinn voted Ash
Tani voted Illwei
Striker voted Ash
Araris voted Ash
Ash voted Quinn
Quinn voted Illwei
Illwei voted Araris 
TJ voted Gears
Ash unvoted Quinn
XP voted Araris
Ash voted TUO
Quinn voted Striker
Fifth voted Striker
Araris voted Pyro
Tani voted Striker
XP voted Maill
Illwei voted Pyro
Striker voted Pyro
Pyro voted Striker
Devo voted Pyro
TJ voted Pyro
Stick voted Striker

C3 votes (thus far):

  Reveal hidden contents

Matrim voted Stick
Quinn voted Stick
Burnt voted Illwei
Stick voted Illwei
Tani voted Maill
Illwei voted Maill
Windrunner voted Maill
Araris voted Quinn
Maill voted Illwei
Matrim voted Maill
TJ voted Ash
Stick unvoted Illwei

Relationships:

  Reveal hidden contents

I've been keeping lists of all of the pairs I think can't be e/e. I have them labeled based on the strength of the relationship. Here are the strong ones, and the reasoning behind each:

Maill/Illwei are not e/e. This one should be pretty obvious, given the whole PM-group-shenanigans thing. It may not have been Maill's idea to Coinshot Illwei, but he agreed pretty quickly when I suggested it, and he never gave any indication that he wasn't comfortable with the idea. Also, he's been consistently suspicious of her since D1, keeps trying to get her exed, etc.

Maill/Tani are not e/e. When I mentioned my slight suspicion of/worry about Maill to Tani yesterday morning, she agreed and quickly listed like three different reasons why I wasn't just being paranoid and why Maill could very well be elim. Also, she apparently would have ended up Coinshotting him if Night rollover had happened when it was supposed to, though we only have her word for that.

Biplet/Maill are not e/e. Maill false-claimed as a certain role to Biplet a while back in PMs, something which she independently confirmed. Could be some seriously complicated distancing, but I don't buy that.

Fifth/Maill are not e/e. Exact same reason as with Biplet, except I have no independent verification from Fifth on this one. 

TUO/Maill are not e/e. TUO apparently claimed to Maill--no independent confirmation from TUO though.

Matrim/Tani are not e/e. First of all, Tani voted Matrim D1 in one of her random vote-hop patterns. (side-note that if most or all of the people she "randomly" voted end up flipping village, I will be quite suspicious of her). I don't think that a newbie would know to do that to a teammate to distance? Additionally, Tani lied to Matrim about Maill's role (if I'm understanding mine and Matrim's PM convo correctly--please feel free to yell at me if I'm not).

Biplet/Illwei are not e/e. This one's tentative--but Illwei apparently told Biplet about the whole Coinshot thing in PMs. Could have easily happened in an elim doc, I suppose, which is why it's tentative, but I still find that unlikely.

Also, will note here (was reading through my PMs to see if I could get anything out of them) that Maill said in our group-PM that he trusted Bard... but then Bard informed me that Maill had claimed to him as something that Maill isn't. So... yeah idk. I assume what Maill meant by that was that he trusted Bard somewhat, but not as much as he trusted myself, Stick, and Tani (since he claimed and proved his real role to the three of us).

Also note that at most one of [Illwei, Biplet, Maill] can be elim if the three pairs involving them are correct.

Notable VCs:

  Reveal hidden contents

underlines denote final votes.

C1:

Reading (1): Araris
Gears (1): Striker
Striker (3): Pyro, Matrim, Quinn
Stick (1): Illwei
Right before I moved off of Striker, this was the VC. No actual conclusions, but I figured I'd include it : P Matrim is still non-confirmed, but I could see the three Striker votes all being village so I wouldn't make much of that. On the other hand, it does surprise me a little bit to see that this early in (only a page after the start of the cycle) there were already final votes. I guess I'm not sure whether that's normal or not lol

Reading (1): Araris
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): Illwei
Illwei (3): Quinn, Maill, Striker
Quinn (1): Dannex
Pyro (1): Bard
Again with the 3-people-voting-the-same-person-and-one-isn't-confirmed. Doesn't actually mean anything, but patterns are fun XD also that's now five final votes.

Reading (2): Araris, Fifth
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (5): Maill, Striker, Biplet, Quinn, Illwei
Quinn (2): Dannex, Tani
Pyro (1): Bard
TJ (1): Illwei
This is the moment in time at which Illwei has the most votes she will have for... actually the entire game thus far, so I figured it was noteworthy (yes, my name did move positions on the list of people voting her; I briefly voted Maill, then switched back). This is the first place where I feel marginally comfortable saying that I'm pretty sure there's an elim on that train somewhere. Not positive, no, but pretty sure. Also I'm leaving that at only one because, as I concluded earlier, no more than one of Illwei, Maill, and Biplet can be elim (I'm just going to assume that's true until proven otherwise--otherwise I'd end up tinfoiling a team with the three of them on it and that would lead to this entire analysis being more or less useless xD)

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Ash, Illwei
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Books (6): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Bard
This is the moment when Reading has the most votes... none of which have been confirmed yet XD I'd wager that at least one of those four is also elim, regardless of Reading's alignment (but more likely so if he's village). However, since there are four of them that doesn't say much. (note that Reading does end up with 4 votes because Books votes in... well not self-pres but whatever. But I consider this to be the most because it's when Reading has the most voters with potentially AI reasoning).

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Books (9): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Bard, Ash, Devotary, TJ
This is the final VC for C1. Things of note: again, I'm guessing that one of [Araris, Fifth, Ash, Illwei] is elim. I'm now also guessing that at least one of [Gears, Stick, Ash, Devotary, TJ] is elim. Note the overlap of [Ash], though that doesn't necessarily mean he's elim. Just that he likes to train-hop apparently. The other thing, which I'll get to later, is that Stick is the only non-confirmed person who's been on both final exe trains (from my perspective. From everyone else's, in the interest of full disclosure, I also fall into that category).

C2:

Striker (1): Matrim
Okay, am I the only one who finds it odd that Matrim's vote here was final? It was the first vote cast in the entire cycle, and it stayed there until the very end. Matrim is a fairly active player, and while yes, I know that he had an elim read on Striker, he does seem awfully certain of his choice here. Could see vil!Matrim tunneling and doing this, but idk... 

Striker (5): Matrim, Windrunner, Quinn, Tani, Maill
Ash (1): Bard
Tani (2): Illwei, Striker
This is the first maximum number of votes that Striker has. Right after this, Tani unvotes. Would note that the last vote placed was Striker's on Tani, after which Tani unvoted Striker... however, I don't have time-stamps on those votes so idk whether it was direct causality or something else. As it is, I could almost excuse this as just Tani being new except that like... yeah idk I've been using that excuse for her a lot lately so I'm not sure how far I can stretch it. More generally, would guess that there's an elim on Striker at this point but I've no idea which of those people it could be. Leaning towards Matrim and Tani, for reasons already stated, but I could see it being any of the four.

Striker (3): Matrim, Windrunner, Maill
Ash (5): Bard, Stick, Quinn, Striker, Araris
Tani (1): Illwei
Illwei (1): Tani
Quinn (1): Ash
This is the moment just before I switch from Ash to Illwei, so the moment when Ash has the most votes on him. Note that Stick and Araris are the only two non-confirmed people on him. Of course, we don't know Ash's alignment, but if he's elim then it wouldn't surprise me if elim!Araris voted him as a kind of bus/distancing attempt (wouldn't be the first time, after all). I would note that Araris was also the one who started the Pyro train. I'm not honestly sure what to make of all this, though, because Striker flipped vil. I could definitely see Striker/Araris being e/e but obviously that's not the case so... yeah. But, weird feeling from Araris's votes, especially if Ash is elim. If Ash is vil, I'd be equally suspicious of both Stick and Araris, which ig is also where I'm at while I don't know Ash's alignment. Tentatively assuming one of the two is elim.

Striker (3): Matrim, Windrunner, Maill
Ash (4): Bard, Stick, Striker, Araris
Illwei (2): Tani, Quinn
Araris (2): Illwei, XP
Gears (1): TJ
TUO (1): Ash
Hmm okay so this makes me feel much better about Ash actually. He could have tied himself with Striker (who we now know was village) and potentially saved himself but chose to vote on his suspicion instead. I doubt anyone would have blamed him for self-presing, so there wasn't much of an incentive for e!him not to. Then again, I don't have timestamps on these so I don't know how long he had left in the cycle. But still. Feeling better about Ash for this. 

Striker (5): Matrim, Windrunner, Maill, Quinn, Fifth
Ash (3): Bard, Stick, Striker
Illwei (2): Tani
Araris (2): Illwei, XP
Gears (1): TJ
TUO (1): Ash
Pyro (1): Araris
Ah! Okay, so here is the context I needed for Araris. He didn't switch his vote to Pyro until after Ash was no longer really an option. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that Araris/Ash are not e/e at this point, since if they had been then Araris likely would have either moved his vote when Ash seemed like he might be exed, or kept his vote on when Ash was no longer in immediate danger in order to distance. 

Striker (8): Matrim, Windrunner, Maill, Quinn, Fifth, Tani, Pyro, Stick
Ash (1): Bard
TUO (1): Ash
Pyro (5): Araris, Illwei, Striker, Devotary, TJ
Maill (1): XP
This is the final VC for C2. Given that Pyro/Striker was v/v, I'd guess that the elims spread their votes out between the two. So, postulating that one of [Araris, Illwei, Devotary, TJ] is elim and at least one of [Matrim, Windrunner, Maill, Fifth, Tani, Stick] is elim. Of the first group, I'm... not really sure how to feel about Devo and TJ. Those votes were both quite last-minute. However, since Devo has a history of voting late (I believe?) I'm thinking TJ is the more suspicious of the pair. Araris, meanwhile, I suspect for other reasons. Illwei, I've no idea tbh. 

Of the second group, Windrunner seems to have been on Striker because they placed the vote at the beginning of the cycle and then never came back to remove it. I'm more or less disregarding it for now because Windrunner is generally fairly inactive. Maill and Tani I'm also focusing less on because their votes were part of The Plan. Stick's actually wasn't--I wasn't even sure she'd be on board with exeing Striker after she'd presented her case for Ash, and it didn't seem necessary for her to move her vote, so we told her she didn't have to and I was actually kind of surprised when she did. Matrim I already explained my thoughts on. Fifth did go to the trouble of presenting his own case for why he was voting Striker, I believe, but there's a reason I'm looking just at the votes and not at the reasoning behind them--in my experience, it's pretty easy to fake that kind of thing. So Fifth is a Vote of Note here as well. 

C3: I'm not gonna go through a play-by-play or analyze this, but here's the current VC:

Stick (1): Quinn
Illwei (2): Burnt, Maill
Maill (4): Tani, Illwei, Windrunner, Matrim
Quinn (1): Araris
Ash (1): TJ

People who didn't have final votes:
Italics denotes people who did have votes at some point, but removed them before the end.
C1: Randby, Reading, Elandera, TUO, Windrunner, Burnt, STINK, Biplet, Daisy, Tani
C2: Gears, Dannex, Elandera, TUO, Burnt, STINK, Daisy

Conclusions (this section assumes that the assumptions I've made are correct. If any of them are proven wrong later on I'll adjust my conclusions accordingly):

Maill/Illwei not e/e
Maill/Tani not e/e
Maill/Biplet not e/e
Maill/Fifth not e/e
Maill/TUO not e/e
Matrim/Tani not e/e
Biplet/Illwei not e/e
Araris/Ash not e/e

One (and only one) of [Maill, Illwei, Biplet] is elim.
At least one of [Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Ash] is elim.
At least one of [Gears, Stick, Ash, Devotary, TJ] is elim.
At least one of [Araris, Stick] is elim.
At least one of [Araris, Illwei, Devotary, TJ] is elim.
At least one (probably more) of [Matrim, Windrunner, Maill, Fifth, Tani, Stick] is elim.

Araris is elim (started the vote on Reading, voted on Ash but then started the vote on Pyro as soon as the Ash train lost steam). 
Ash is village (I don't think Ash is elim with Araris, and aside from that he didn't self-pres on Striker when he had the chance; instead he voted on TUO, whom he suspected).
Reading is village (Araris started the train on him)

Matrim is elim (this is a bit more tentative, but... well, look. Matrim has voted exactly one person this entire game, and expressed strong suspicion of exactly one person this entire game, and that person flipped village. And then Mat didn't really... stop and reconsider, exactly? Like, if you're a villager and you're tunneling hard enough on someone that they're the only person you ever have a vote on for the first two cycles, then you're gonna need to do some pretty serious rethinking once they flip village, right? And I don't recall really seeing that from Mat. Last Night the only two suspicions he mentioned were on Tani and Maill.)
Tani is village (again, tentatively, because it's partially dependent on Mat. But also... just, new-player vibes? idk, I get that some people think she's sus for the whole claiming thing, but can you really see elim!her doing that without asking her team first? And can you really see her team saying that's a good idea? Since it wasn't even her idea to Coinshot Illwei in the first place, and the rest of us approved XP, if one of us had outed her to the thread she would have had that as a response. It just seems like genuine newness to think that you have to claim over a single badly-targeted vig kill.)

Maill is elim. I'm incredibly unsure about this one, but I tried to write out reasons why I think he's village and then realized I had none except that Matrim is voting him. And honestly, I might even have kept him down as village anyway were it not for one really... kind of strange exchange I had with him last Night? I mentioned that I was looking at final VCs and that from them I'd concluded that Stick was sus because she was sheeping the final trains. This is not, in fact, what was happening (if you look at the progression of votes) but I didn't realize that at the time because I'd only just started my analysis, and when I mentioned it to Maill he kind of... seized on it? Like, sort of overeagerly, if that makes sense. Told me like three times in the same 4-sentence-ish PM message that it was interesting or useful or something like that : P the tone felt super off to me, and that combined with his general... openness to me, Tani, and Stick, which seems to me now to have been kind of arbitrary since he claimed to us D1 or beginning of D2 and since then he hasn't real-claimed to anyone else (that I know of), whereas he's told us about a few other people he fake-claimed to. So... hmmm this is making me less sure about my elim-read on Matrim. Then again, he was the most recent person to vote for Maill so that could very well be distancing.
This means--and I'm fairly certain about all five of these if Maill is elim, particularly the first three--that Illwei, Tani, Biplet, Fifth, and TUO are village. 

So that leaves me with Gears, Dannex, Elandera, TJ, Devo, Burnt, STINK, Stick, and Daisy as the pool from which to draw the remaining three elims. Or 4 elims, if I think Matrim is village (Tani would be village if either Maill or Matrim is elim, so nobody else's alignment thus far is dependent on Matrim's alone.)

Of these, I know nothing about Daisy, and honestly I doubt we're going to find anything out about her any time soon, either. She might be a good Coinshot target, just so we don't have to waste a cycle's vote figuring out whether the person who's never said anything is elim.

I haven't the faintest idea about STINK theoretically, but also he's actually had some decent, if short and unelaborated, points... so leaning away from him as elim. 

Dannex hasn't really said much since D1, when he voted me... notably seems to be keeping a low profile, which is somewhat unusual for him but also he could be busy. So, leaning elim but he's not at the top of my list-of-people-to-exe.

Windrunner... I'm gonna just mark them village tbh. Idk if this is really the best idea and by going for precision I'm definitely sacrificing some amount of accuracy, but they haven't... voted elimmy, and haven't been acted much different than normal (which is to say, they haven't been acting much at all) so I'll just go with it here.

TJ just posted and made an incredibly valid point about Gears--that he's basically been stating the obvious all game--so I might lean towards Gears being elim. Unfortunately, I'm also currently leaning elim on TJ for being the last vote on a long train in both cycles... but he was elim in the QF so I can definitely understand v!him here not being able to keep up very well. 

I'm leaning away from Devo being elim because she's doing what is apparently normal for her (voting last-minute). Of course, she did that in LG73 (when she was elim) as well. So I guess it's literally NAI for her but I have to narrow this down somehow.

Burnt and Elandera I have legitimately no idea. Stick I should have an idea but I don't, so I'll go with elim because they've voted every cycle and I've talked to them a lot and I still have legitimately no idea, which seems wrong to me.

So. People I think are most likely to be elims:

Araris, Matrim, Maill, Stick, TJ, Gears, Dannex, and possibly one of the near-inactives/nulls (Daisy, Burnt, Elandera)

People I think are less likely to be elims: Everyone else.

If I had to guess an elim team of 6 right now, I'd say Araris/Maill/Stick/Gears/Dannex/Daisy, but obviously that's mostly just randomly picked from my list so I don't expect it to be right.

@TJ Shade I believe that answers your question? Also, go read my explanation of why Ash's vote on TUO is villagery more than elimmy (under Notable VCs, C2)

Oh! And before I forget: Stick Maill

Apart from my suspicion on Maill for the reasons listed above, I kind of need to know his alignment before I can pursue a lot of the rest of this analysis with any degree of certainty. I would also be perfectly fine voting Matrim or Araris this turn though, since my reads on them have nothing to do with Maill. 

Edit: @_Stick_ yes Tani revealed in the group what she rolled. Not to each of us separately. (it's not steel, don't worry : P)

 

 

 

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

;-;

Mat even gave a summary of my summary of the ISO I-

did

okay one sec I'm going to get the quotes okay ah

 

uhhh so some things tht may or may not be important, collected, for hael, if he cares

  Hide contents

Illwei's ISO on Maill, And Mat's commentary

  Hide contents

 

idk some posts with vc analysis?

  Hide contents

Mat

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Maill

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Quinn

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

 

Thank you Illwei for your efforts, i swear I pay attention to thread sometimes <3 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Damn Mat had a PM with Daisy huh?

I mean, I did. It was a whole 3 messages. 

1 hour ago, Haelbarde said:

Greetings and salutations all!

Don't suppose anyone would mind giving me the tl;dr version of the game to date?
First person totally isn't evil.
Thanks!

HAEL! Welcome! Good to see you!

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Mailliw73 said:

I mean, I did. It was a whole 3 messages. 

Did Daisy talk?

[Haelbarde he/him]

Just now, Mailliw73 said:

HAEL! Welcome! Good to see you!

It has been some time since we joined blades. How have the winds of time been treating you? 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Did Daisy talk?

She said it was her first time playing, and asked how long I've played. And that's all she said.

Just now, Haelbarde said:

It has been some time since we joined blades. How have the winds of time been treating you? 

I've been doing very well! How are you?

[Haelbarde he/him]

29 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

She said it was her first time playing, and asked how long I've played. And that's all she said.

I've been doing very well! How are you?

Yeah, not too bad. Had some time off work, and got shortlisted for a new job today, so things are pretty good.

---

For my own reference for later.

1. Matrim's Dice
2. Random Bystander - Regular Villager
3. Gears
4. Quintessential - Village Soother
5. Fifth Scholar
6. Shard of Reading
7. Araris Valerian
8. Dannex
9. Elandera
10. Ashbringer
11. TJ Shade
12. Illwei
13. Devotary of Spontaneity
14. Experience Animation - Village Rioter
15. Malliw73
16. StrikerEZ - Regular Villager
17. The Unknown Order - Village Smoker
18. The Windrunner Supreme
19. Ventyl -  Village Smoker
20. Flyingbooks - Regular Villager
21. Burnt Spaghetti
22. STINK
23. Stick
24. Biplet - Village Coinshot
25. Daisy/Hael - Harmony
26. The Young Pyromancer - Regular Villager
27. Young Bard -Village Lurcher
28. Tani

Edited March 9, 2021 by Haelbarde
Missed Quinn's death also.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

1 minute ago, Haelbarde said:

Yeah, not too bad. Had some time off work, and got shortlisted for a new job today, so things are pretty good.

 

---

For my own reference for later.

1. Matrim's Dice
2. Random Bystander - Regular Villager
3. GearsQuintessential
4. Fifth Scholar
5. Shard of Reading
6. Araris Valerian
7. Dannex
8. Elandera
9. Ashbringer
10. TJ Shade
11. Illwei
12. Devotary of Spontaneity
13. Experience Animation - Village Rioter
14. Malliw73
15. StrikerEZ - Regular Villager
16. The Unknown Order - Village Smoker
17. The Windrunner Supreme
18. Ventyl -  Village Smoker
19. Flyingbooks - Regular Villager
20. Burnt Spaghetti
21. STINK
22. Stick
23. Biplet - Village Coinshot
24. Daisy/Hael - Harmony
25. The Young Pyromancer - Regular Villager
26. Young Bard -Village Lurcher
27. Tani

Glad to hear it!

You have Gears and QUinn on the same line for some reason on there, just so you know. 

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

Daisy/Hael - Harmony

Hmmm

Pretty sure this game takes place before HoA... that claim looking a bit sus ...

[Illwei]

41 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Thank you Illwei for your efforts, i swear I pay attention to thread sometimes <3 

<3

[Kasimir he/him]

The GM Announcement you were waiting for since rollover:

@Condensation has kindly agreed to replace @Tani. Please be welcoming  

To clarify, the pinch-hitters aren't going in completely blind as they've been briefed. But don't expect them to know some secret codeword you put on p.73 of your PM with their original. I can neither confirm nor deny if someone might have done that...

[Condensation she/her]

Hello hello hello!

Sorry, I won't be very active. I'm rather busy.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Just now, Condensation said:

Hello hello hello!

Sorry, I won't be very active. I'm rather busy.

Welcome welcome!

[Ashbringer he/him]

Illwei, why are you badgering new players with 73 page PMs...

[Illwei]

Now whatever do you mean my longest PM isn't even 32 pages yet ;).

Edited March 9, 2021 by Illwei