Mid-Range Game 47: Conflict of Superiority

[Elandera]

Seven and a half hours left in this turn! Don't forget about your votes and actions!

Vote Count:
Somebody from Sel (2) - TJ Shade, Liranil
Liranil (2) - Quinn0928, Dannex
Straw (1) - StrikerEZ

[Liranil]

10 minutes ago, Straw said:

I can offer up the fact that Liranil is a Dione as proof.

At this point I might as well be completely transparent. Yes, I am a Dione, and I'm the one who removed the vote off of Breaker in that round where four people died. I can confirm that that's true, although if you're a Figment, you could also have figured that out, although I'm not sure if there would be more than one of those. 

Now that the elims know that, they'll probably kill me if I don't get voted off this round, since I'm a vote manipulator. So please believe me when I say that I am a villager and we need to vote someone else or we're done for!

I'm not super confident about Somebody, and honestly I'm more suspicious of Dannex because they keep voting early and not really coming back later in the round (and their vote + a most-likely-elim Cambric vote lead to Archer's death in that tie a few rounds ago), but I'm not confident spreading out the vote by switching to Dannex.

[Quintessential]

13 minutes ago, Liranil said:

At this point I might as well be completely transparent. Yes, I am a Dione, and I'm the one who removed the vote off of Breaker in that round where four people died. I can confirm that that's true, although if you're a Figment, you could also have figured that out, although I'm not sure if there would be more than one of those. 

Okay. Since you and Straw both confirmed it, I'm willing to believe you. And believe that you're village, for the moment, since if you hadn't removed that vote from Breaker, five people would have died rather than four. Liranil. If you're village, that means Straw's telling the truth about being the DS, since I don't see how else he'd have known you were Dione. So I won't vote Straw either, as I might have before he offered that proof (in the hopes that he was actually an elim and lying).

I'm not sure what to think about Ventyl's train being all village, which is why I say I believe Liranil is village for the moment, but I guess that, as she pointed out, it is possible that it snowballed without elim help and that all six people on it were village.

So that leaves the question of who to vote instead. I've been somewhat distracted for this cycle and the last one (I got a lot of Sanderson books for Christmas ), so I'm afraid I don't remember the exact arguments for SfS being elim. Could someone summarize for me?

[Liranil]

20 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

So that leaves the question of who to vote instead. I've been somewhat distracted for this cycle and the last one (I got a lot of Sanderson books for Christmas ), so I'm afraid I don't remember the exact arguments for SfS being elim. Could someone summarize for me?

Basically, TJ voted Somebody because they were really defensive during that misunderstanding about why they were on someone's (I think Ashbringer's or Archer's?) suspect list and because they almost caused a three-way tie instead of a two-way tie that time four people tied, which I think was Cycle 2.

This was my reasoning for voting Somebody:

On 12/29/2020 at 9:42 AM, Liranil said:

The reason I'm voting Somebody is because of this specific thing they said in cycle 2 (before the four-people death) which I noticed when I reread the thread: "I very much dislike a Matrim kill, as he is a very good village and I would rather have him helping us, rather than cursing us from the grave." (This is on page 12 of the main thread, 4th post down. Idk if this is the right way to quote, idk how to quote across threads)

This seems like a really weird statement to make because Somebody is assuming that Matrim is village, which we know was true, but they didn't really consider the fact that Matrim could have been an elim. If Somebody is an elim, they knew that Matrim was innocent (and I think that's where either the elims or the tenasi pilot killed Matrim). Idk, it just sets off alarm bells for me.

I'll admit it's not a lot to go on, and now that I've reread more I'm a little more sus of Dannex. But that's the reasoning so far.

[Quintessential]

33 minutes ago, Liranil said:

I'll admit it's not a lot to go on, and now that I've reread more I'm a little more sus of Dannex. But that's the reasoning so far.

Yeah... neither of them seem like there's very much evidence against them. I wish we had something solid on one of them, or on anyone... but it looks like it's probably just going to end up being a shot in the dark, whoever we choose... 

Well, let's hope Dannex is elim, shall we? I don't have a preference, and since you're more sus of Dannex, I'll vote on them too so that you don't have to worry as much about spreading out the vote.

@TJ Shade, @StrikerEZ could you be convinced to switch to Dannex as well?

Edited December 30, 2020 by Quinn0928

[StrikerEZ]

Well. I sure missed a lot. Okay, I rescind my vote on Straw and am gonna vote on Dannex because they are one of my elim suspects that it seems all of us are willing to vote on. Liranil, I sure hope you're actually a village dione and are gonna be doing your extra vote on Dannex. Also, I hope Straw has some way to get protected. Would be very bad if he got killed, even if we manage to get an elim exed.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

I'm self preservation voting Dannex .

[Quintessential]

13 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Liranil, I sure hope you're actually a village dione and are gonna be doing your extra vote on Dannex.

Well, Dione is vote-removal, so @Liranil you should probably just remove Dannex's vote.

 

[StrikerEZ]

23 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Well, Dione is vote-removal, so @Liranil you should probably just remove Dannex's vote.

 

I can never remember what all the roles do.

[Liranil]

Hold up, I've never successfully gotten an elim out, so I'm a little nervous about this. Don't worry, I will indeed be using my vote removal, and I'll be changing my vote when I get on my computer and can actually change text color. But I'm a little nervous how fast people moved onto Dannex since I'm not that confident.

[Quintessential]

Just now, Liranil said:

Hold up, I've never successfully gotten an elim out, so I'm a little nervous about this. Don't worry, I will indeed be using my vote removal, and I'll be changing my vote when I get on my computer and can actually change text color. But I'm a little nervous how fast people moved onto Dannex since I'm not that confident.

Well, Striker switched because I asked him to, and Somebody is a self-preservation vote, but you might be right. Still, I think a decisive vote is probably better than a tie or a close vote, since we have so many vote-manips in play... 

[Liranil]

Okay, now that I'm on my laptop I'm officially changing my vote from Somebody to Dannex. I'm also putting out my thoughts/reads on here, mostly so I can organize my own brain but also so my opinions are out here in case I'm killed by the elims. Just... be aware that I have had a 0% success rate of finding elims so far. I'm also tagging everyone to hopefully draw more people into the conversation. Participation, yay! Especially since this could very well be the last round...

- @TJ Shade: Since you took over for Experience, I'm inclined to trust you since I think it's unlikely Experience would give up an elim round. You've also made some good reads. You're my most village read at the moment.

- @Quinn0928: You feel pretty village to me too. You've offered a lot of good insights, and you didn't need to bring up the idea that Straw could be an elim masquerading as the spy, but you did anyway. I don't think that's something an elim would do. Pretty village for me right now.

- @Straw: I'm pretty sure you're actually the spy, based on your research information, although you could also be a second figment. Clearly, either way, you're siding with the elims (and there's not much reason a villager would fake being the spy, I don't think)

- @Somebody from Sel: You've said a few phrases that made me sus, and you seemed overly defensive about being put on the suspect list that one time. But you were also not on your phone for the first few rounds. I read you as possible elim.

- @Dannex: I'm most suspicious of you right now for only speaking or voting towards the beginning of rounds, and with only vague reasoning, and I just realized that you didn't vote the first two cycles at all? (I also just realized I was wrong about Dannex being the one to vote on Archer leading up to their death). Did you have a reason for not voting the first two rounds that I missed? Mostly elim to me right now.

- @Snipexe: So... apparently you haven't voted at all? Am I reading the votes right? I know you've said a decent amount but I am not seeing your name on any of the final vote counts. That seems really suspicious to me. Elim read.

- @Ghanderflaffle: You've barely talked at all, and you also didn't vote the first two rounds. That seems really suspicious to me. Did you have a reason? That seems elim to me.

- @StrikerEZ: I just realized that you were the one who voted for Archer early on in the cycle that lead to the two-way tie, where a Cambric vote was added on. I'm a little sus of that. Slightly elim to me, but you've also shared some good reasoning, I believe.

As a side note, I have a possible theory about who one of the Cambrics is, and if I'm right, I think they can be trusted. But if I'm right (which, given my track record, is highly unlikely), I'd rather not out them. 

Overall, I'm pretty suspicious of most people. Now that I've looked over the vote counts again (and I apologize for getting Dannex and StrikerEZ mixed up on that Archer vote), I'm more sus of Snipexe. But I feel like I have to stick with Dannex at this point, so we'll see. 

[danex]

20 minutes ago, Liranil said:

I'm most suspicious of you right now for only speaking or voting towards the beginning of rounds, and with only vague reasoning, and I just realized that you didn't vote the first two cycles at all? (I also just realized I was wrong about Dannex being the one to vote on Archer leading up to their death). Did you have a reason for not voting the first two rounds that I missed? Mostly elim to me right now.

Am I only speaking at the beginning? If I am that’s not intentional. I don’t see what Elim!me would have to gain by only speaking at the beginning of each cycle, that seems pretty NAI to me. 

I tend to vote less in the earlier cycles, it’s just part of my playstyle I guess. You can look at some of my other games for evidence. If I was Elim, wouldn’t I be more likely to vote in the earlier cycles? Those are the cycles where it’s easier and more important for the Elims to get a misexe, why would I give up that opportunity? 
 

Edit: @Elandera can I have a vote count?

Edited December 31, 2020 by Dannex

[Straw]

15 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Edit: @Elandera can I have a vote count?

Dannex (4): Quinn0928, StrikerEZ, Somebody from Sel, Liranil
Somebody from Sel (1): TJ Shade
Liranil (1): Dannex

[danex]

Well, it seems like I’m about to die, so I might as well post some reads. Hopefully you guys can benefit from them somehow.

TJ Shade- Reads make a fair amount of sense, hasn’t done anything suspicious. Village.

Quinn0928- The way they started a train on me is honestly kinda suspicious, I thought trains were bad? Hard Elim. 

Straw- I believe them when they are the spy, but I think it was rather foolish for them to claim. Even if they ‘align’ with the Elims, they aren’t actually aligned with them. They still don’t count for parity. Almost certainly going to die. 

Somebody from Sel- They were rather defensive, and even though I tried to protect them before, upon further consideration I think you guys are right. Elim. 

Dannex- Honestly you guys are right, I’m pretty suspicious. Elim. 

Snipexe- Hasn’t said much, but that alone is suspicious. Null to Mild Elim. 

Liranil- I know I’ve been pushing for Liranil pretty hard, but I realized I was just projecting my own suspiciousness onto them. Village.

Ghanderflaffle- Village because reasons.

StrikerEZ- Village for more reasons.

[Elandera]

And that's turn. Is it game? Mayyyyybeeeeee......

[Gears]

“You have failed us.” Kaviq stood imperiously above Dannex. The day’s meeting had ended with no progress, once again. They were still at a deadlock with the DSI supporters, but somehow they were holding off a decision.
That had not been helped by Dannex’s removal from the assembly. The vote had been chaotic and confusing, and the target of removal had changed many, many times over the course of the day, but somehow, it had come to this. One of Kaviq’s valuable agents, gone. Removed from office, left bereft of power.
“It’s not like I wanted this. I’m still not even sure what happened.” Dannex clicked its claws in an annoyed fashion.
Kaviq gestured to silence Dannex. “What happened doesn’t matter. Unfortunately, we can’t have you around. You have been deposed, and your presence is now forbidden.” They gestured to the surrounding DPS agents callously, as though they weren’t sending away a faithful follower and compatriot. “Take this one to the portal. Silence it like the rest.”
Dannex struggled against the arms of the agents, but its strength was not enough to break free. Kaviq watched as it was dragged away, judgement burning in their eyes. Useless, pitiful tool. Couldn’t even stay in power. Worthless.

Keras moved through twisting hallways, monitoring for strange activity. Many people had died over the course of their meetings, and paranoia was running rampant. Especially its own paranoia. And thus, the hallways. Wandering around like a madman in the desert, chasing shadows and dying of deprivation. It had to know. It did not know.
As it completed its third sweep of the corridors, it heard a harsh cry nearby and hurried to investigate. There, it found the limp body of Straw, surrounded by a spreading pool of blood. With a heavy heart, it moved to pick up the corpse, but then it saw something… unusual. The ‘corpse’ was breathing. Straw was alive!
It quickly applied pressure to Straw’s wound and called for a medic, trying to keep the wounded individual alive until professional aid could arrive.
“What happened?” it asked Straw, not expecting an answer from the probably unconscious man.
“Got… stabbed,” Straw murmured, struggling to speak while gasping weakly around the knife wound in his side. “Someone… saved me.”
“Shh… Save your breath,” Keras said gently. “You’ll need all the air you can get right now.”
The medics came at long last and took Straw to the medbay. Soon after, Keras got the news that he would live. It heaved a sigh of relief, soothed by the knowledge that someone had not died this time. Now to clean all the blood. A droid wheeled by with a bucket and a mop and started clearing away the dark stains. If only it were so easy to clean the stain that was the Department of Protective Services.

Cycle Five
Dannex has been deposed! They were a member of the Department of Protective Services!
Straw was attacked but survived!
Vote Count
Somebody from Sel (1) - TJ Shade
Dannex (3) - Quinn 0928, Somebody from Sel, Liranil, StrikerEZ
Liranil (0) - Dannex

Player List

Spoiler

@TJ Shade
@Quinn0928
@Straw
@Somebody from Sel
Matrim’s Dice DSI Figment
Dannex DPS
Archer DSI
@Snipexe
@Liranil
Ventyl DSI
@Ghanderflaffle
Araris Valerian DSI Heklo
@StrikerEZ
Ashbringer DSI Heklo
Xinoehp512 DSI Dione Leader
Breaker DSI
BrightEyes2 DSI Tenasi Pilot

This turn will end on January 1 at 7:00 p.m. PST.
Snipexe and Ghanderflaffle are both at risk of being deposed for inactivity. Post this turn or be removed from the game!
Upvote Elandera for being the nicest [and only] GM I've ever co-GMed with and letting me post the turn again!

[Straw]

@elims bad move tbh. Instead of removing the village Dione, you essentially decided to shoot your own Dione. Don’t try it again.

I removed the Striker vote btw.

[Liranil]

You know, even if I die soon, I'm just happy that we actually got rid of an elim! Nice job guys! 

I assumed that was you, Straw. So either you're telling the truth about being the spy, or this is a big plot by the elims to false clear you, which could be possible if one of the elims is the Varvax Leader and can protect. Actually... that would make sense why no one else has been saved yet... hmm...

And I removed Dannex's vote, if anyone was wondering. Oddly enough, there were no votes added (and, unfortunately Dannex didn't have a role, which means there's still probably at least one elim Cambric left). There's 8 of us left and probably either 2 or 3 elims, so either (village-spy-elim) 5-1-2 or 4-1-3, with still one Dione left on the villager side (me!), and two Cambrics, at least one of whom is an elim based on earlier voting. 

I'm gonna go back and read the threads in a bit and come back with my suspicions. Also gonna glance over Dannex's last post, which gives us a lot to analyze and stew over.

[|TJ|]

The only reason why they'd attack Straw is they want that conversion as soon as possible. Maybe they'd have even won if the conversion took place? Makes me think there are only 2 elims left. 

@Straw, how many of your scans were successful? 

Still suspicious of Somebody from Sel. Dannex chose specifically to vote for Liranil over SfS despite SfS having 2 votes. 

[Ghanderflaffle]

Ahhh sorry, I’ve been super busy lately with stuff (and a Mistborn reread). I’m going to read last cycle and try to be more active in the morning.

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, I'm glad we got one of them, and TJ makes a valid point about Somebody from Sel. Not only did Dannex avoid voting on them, but SfS has also been really defensive every time they have been put under scrutiny. That's not necessarily indicative of them being an elim, but it does make it more likely in my eyes.

If there had only been 3 elims and they'd killed Straw and gotten an extra elim, they still would only be at 3 elims against 4 village. While that definitely would've been a better position for themselves, I think the elims started off with 4 members, and were going for the kill on Straw to win the game last cycle. Now, the question is whether or not the Varvax Leader should protect Straw again. For some reason, Straw clearly seems to be trying to work with the elims. Which is odd, considering it's in the elims' best interests to just kill Straw and gain the extra elim, I think. I feel sorry for the poor guy who has to decide who to try and protect. 

[Snipexe]

38 minutes ago, Gears said:

Snipexe and Ghanderflaffle are both at risk of being deposed for inactivity. Post this turn or be removed from the game!

Heh, thanks for the reminder. Joining this game may have been a mistake. I've been drafting a larger analysis post, which unfortunately is rather pointless now, so I think I'm just going to toss it and post some analysis on Dannex instead.

So I'm just sort of going to highlight some of Dannex's posts I think are important, and why.

Quote

Well, it seems like I’m about to die, so I might as well post some reads. Hopefully you guys can benefit from them somehow.

TJ Shade- Reads make a fair amount of sense, hasn’t done anything suspicious. Village.

Quinn0928- The way they started a train on me is honestly kinda suspicious, I thought trains were bad? Hard Elim. 

Straw- I believe them when they are the spy, but I think it was rather foolish for them to claim. Even if they ‘align’ with the Elims, they aren’t actually aligned with them. They still don’t count for parity. Almost certainly going to die. 

Somebody from Sel- They were rather defensive, and even though I tried to protect them before, upon further consideration I think you guys are right. Elim. 

Dannex- Honestly you guys are right, I’m pretty suspicious. Elim. 

Snipexe- Hasn’t said much, but that alone is suspicious. Null to Mild Elim. 

Liranil- I know I’ve been pushing for Liranil pretty hard, but I realized I was just projecting my own suspiciousness onto them. Village.

Ghanderflaffle- Village because reasons.

StrikerEZ- Village for more reasons.

 

 

A very classic final elim post. Final reads intended to confuse/mislead the village.. The primary thing to note of course is the switches of Liranil's read and SfS, the former which of I take as a bait to try to get the village to hit on this cycle, though I could be incorrect here. Reads me as elim, which makes sense. Switches SfS as well, which I kind of think may be a different kind of bait. SfS has been pretty widely suspcious (from what I can tell from previous posts) and so this makes me think that what Dannex was trying to do was to call them out as an elim, to protect them (because why would an elim name another elim as being such-> it must be a bait is the logical path I think Dannex wanted us to take). Definitely puts SfS as an Elim read for me, though that could change in the future. As I'm writing this, if I don't hit on anything more suspcious I'll toss a vote SfS's way. And again I want to note that these kind of posts are definitely an IKYK situation so I could be reading far too much into this, which I suspect was the point

Just going to note here Dannex's lack of comment on the Straw claim. Seems like something they would have tried to use to push votes one way or another. I don't know how much information there actually is there, I just wanted mention it.

I know this sounds like a cop-out, but reading through the rest of Dannex's posts, a lot of it is significantly NAI, at least to my eyes. A large portion are just comments on what other players are saying, effectively just filler, and are rather good at covering up their overall lack of general contribution. Their death was definitely random chance, though their defense of Somebody from Sel is more than enough to get a vote from me. This post especially:

Quote

I’m not sure about a SfS vote, they’re certainly suspicious, but seeing as how we’re almost certainly at exlo, I don’t think I’m certain enough to risk it all.
It’s definitely a possibility that SfS is an Elim, but right now I’m reading Liranil as Elim even more. The only thing we have against SfS is their defensiveness, but I think they just tend to be a naturally defensive player. As a naturally defensive player myself, I’m hesitant to vote for that reason alone. 
Considering how that situation was also mainly a misunderstanding, I don’t want to risk our last chance on it.

Reads blantantly (to me) as an elim trying to cover another elim's butt. 

Edited December 31, 2020 by Snipexe
Clarified that is was Dannex's posts I was highlighting

[Liranil]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

Now, the question is whether or not the Varvax Leader should protect Straw again. 

Idk if I should point this out or not, but they rules say that they can't protect the same target twice in a row, so I think we need to anticipate Straw getting killed by the elims this round, unless they try a different tactic.

[Snipexe]

31 minutes ago, Liranil said:

Actually... that would make sense why no one else has been saved yet... hmm...

To be fair, I suspect that the Varvax leader has just been making guesses and finally got lucky. Looking through previous elim kills, there's no real discernable pattern, besides maybe targeting loud players, so there's not much to go off for them. WGG are generally really hard to pull off, and I can't see the elims wasting a kill when they're seemling so close to XoL (Exe or Lose ( I have no idea if that's the right acronym to use lol)). Even more so when you consider that they were losing one of their own. I agree with TJ. I'd bet they panicked and wanted to get a conversion off as soon as possible.