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Long Game 69: The Politics of the Passions


Zillah

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9 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

the problem is if i die before i can divulge who i saw as vill, and then the village lynches that person we could have avoided simply by me claiming

Tis true. I guess if you scan a villager, just make your best judgement call.

6 minutes ago, Lotus said:

If anyone has received a alignment scan, I encourage you to use it on me. 

I second this. 

Edited by Matrim's Dice
1111 posts, my inner Rosharan loves the symmetry...
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Gah I'm sorry Vapor. I've been bad with pronouns and SE lately with all the players I'm not familiar with.

15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Also: I suggested the Vapor/Lotus team, and I would hope that this clears me a little bit. As such I am expecting to be an elim kill target, so I wouldn't mind the Passion of Protection helping me out- if you have received that, consider myself or Sart as good targets.

I don't think you being suspicious Vapor makes a likely elim kill target. And if Lotus is an elim, I doubt they'd kill you because killing you could incriminate Lotus.

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1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Even with the claim at the end it's good to get that verified. 

Top suspects now: Lotus, Experience. For reasons mentioned prior.

I was gonna say something about the vote count having 7 votes instead of 8 (because XP's vote should've counted twice) but the note at the end makes me think that he just forgot to send in the action. @Experience?

Also: I suggested the Vapor/Lotus team, and I would hope that this clears me a little bit. As such I am expecting to be an elim kill target, so I wouldn't mind the Passion of Protection helping me out- if you have received that, consider myself or Sart as good targets. Now, and in the future :P Please, and thank you.

I agree with Mint on that if you scan a villager, refrain from saying anything for at least a little while. If they become a candidate, then speaking up would be useful, but we don't want to give the elims an easy target.

I received the Passion of Connection and plan to make a PM with someone I trust. I probably won't disclose who, but villagers, don't waste your roleblock on me. Elims, if you have a roleblock, go ahead :P 

I'll do a full reads list in the morning. I'll still be around for an hour or so, but I want to make the reads list when I have more time.

ACK! I guess I didn't know about that rule... Aw well, it didn't really matter this time. Out of time now. Will post something longer later.

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Soft clearing Matrim for voting on Vapor before she soft-claimed and the vote in D1, and Illwei for a reasoned vote on Vapor in D1. Not sure why Illwei wouldn't follow it up in D2, but they thought they were tunneling, so that's fair.

Vapor voted on Mint in D1, but as it was a poke vote, it could easily be distancing. The only reason that the vote remained was because Vapor wasn't on to change it. If she was, she would have changed it to save herself from the tie. Mint also voted on Mist in D1 and gave not-so-convincing reasoning. Since Sart is believed to be village, there's a good chance one of Lotus or Mint is elim.

Edited by TJ Shade
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8 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Vapor voted on Mint in D1, but as it was a poke vote, it could easily be distancing. The only reason that the vote remained was because Vapor wasn't on to change it. If she was, she would have changed it to save herself from the tie. Mint also voted on Mist in D1 and gave not-so-convincing reasoning. Since Sart is believed to be village, there's a good chance one of Lotus or Mint is elim.

I had initially gut-read Mint as village, and read Lotus as elim, but now when considering their recent posts I'm starting to think I could have those backwards.

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Here is a runthrough of Vapor's posts

DAY 1

  1. Claims she doesn't have insight and pokes Experience
  2. Fixes vote color
  3. Unpokes Experience
  4. Pokes Frozen Mint
    1. Illwei votes on them for this. Illwei is likely village
  5. Doesn't have much to say
    1. Matrim puts his vote on Vapor for the second time in the cycle. Matrim is likely village
  6. Emphasizes her vote is a poke
    1. Vapor doesn't get on to break tie. Pretty risky.

NIGHT 1

  1. Claims she would have saved Mist. (I actually believe this. Interesting.)
  2. Asked about suspicion on her.
  3. Apologizes for misunderstanding suspicion

Day 2

  1. Soft claim elim
  2. Posts summary of reasons to lynch her and claims elim slightly more clearly
  3. soft backpedals elim claim, but says we should lynch her
  4. Apologizes to her team for being outed
    1. I'm interested to read the elim doc and see what is happening here

 

It looks like she only ever voted for Experience and Mint. I don't think she would have voted on an elim. I know it's standard meta as a way to distance, but I doubt she did it. Therefore I am moving Illwei, Matrim and Sart to trusted status. Experience and Frozen Mint are at probably good status. Lord Silberfarben and TJ Shade are at 'I want to trust' status. Lotus, Kynedath, Pyromancer and Ashbringer are on the bubble.

*compares notes with what others have said*

I'll start that as a follow up post now. Someone please post in the next ~40 minutes so I don't double post :)

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16 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

It looks like she only ever voted for Experience and Mint. I don't think she would have voted on an elim. I know it's standard meta as a way to distance, but I doubt she did it. Therefore I am moving Illwei, Matrim and Sart to trusted status. Experience and Frozen Mint are at probably good status. Lord Silberfarben and TJ Shade are at 'I want to trust' status. Lotus, Kynedath, Pyromancer and Ashbringer are on the bubble.

*compares notes with what others have said*

I'll start that as a follow up post now. Someone please post in the next ~40 minutes so I don't double post :)

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Vapor had poked two of her elim teammates D1. She couldn't have expected to be lynched D2, and if she got away with it it would be a very successful distancing tactic. Experience is currently my main suspect, and Mint is on the bubble for me, so this is a possibility I won't be brushing aside.

That being said, with you also on the bubble for me, this post sorta reads like distancing to me as well, though I don't think elim!you would do that if both XP and Mint are elims.

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Sart - Is suspicious of Pyro over Elandera's last post. Fair enough, I don't have reason yet to trust Pyromancer either. What are your thoughts now that we found Vapor @Sart

Illwei - Doesn't believe TJ and I are elims together. I also want to believe TJ is village. Suspicious of Ashbringer's fishing for info. Here is a list of reads. Illwei was unsettled or worse by Experience, Matrim, TJ, Pyro and myself. Of those, I would be most suspicious of Pyro, but only by process of elimination. Here Slightly earlier, Illwei is sus of Kynedath, Vapor, Pyro and Sart. 24 hours apart and Pyro and Vapor are the only two that made both lists. What changed your mind about Kynedath and Sart in those 24 hours? @Illwei Wait, I found where you changed on Sart, but not Kynedath.

Matrims Dice - Top suspects are Lotus and Experience. Thinks he's going to die. Seconds that we should scan Lotus. I went back to find the reasons for suspicion on Lotus and Experience. Reason for suspecting Lotus. Reason for suspecting Experience. That's a fair call. Experience defends Vapor in the post above this. That's pretty incriminating and I may need to reconsider my position on Experience.

Experience -

Frozen Mint

TJ Shade - Expressed suspicion of Sart early.

Lord Silberfarben

Lotus

Kynedath

The Young Pyromancer

Ashbringer

I probably should also share that I got connection. Nothing nefarious so I needn't be role blocked again.

I'm running out of time before work, but I wanted to respond to this.

35 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Vapor had poked two of her elim teammates D1. She couldn't have expected to be lynched D2, and if she got away with it it would be a very successful distancing tactic. Experience is currently my main suspect, and Mint is on the bubble for me, so this is a possibility I won't be brushing aside.

That being said, with you also on the bubble for me, this post sorta reads like distancing to me as well, though I don't think elim!you would do that if both XP and Mint are elims.

I haven't gotten to your reasons for suspecting Experience. Is it the same as Matrim's?

I'm counting on there being three elims total this game. I doubt Vapor poked both of her teammates day one, so if Experience turns up elim I don't think Mint is also bad. I reserve the right to change that when I get to go through Mint's suspicion lists.

I'm interested to know from whom I am distancing? It wouldn't be either of the two others you said you are suspicious of because I kind of tied myself to them by saying I thought they were good. That's the opposite of distancing. Unless you think Kynedath and I are on a team which is the only person I've distanced from this game... but you don't. 

I am coming around on the idea of lynching Experience, but I'm going to finish my rainbow of accusations first when I get back from work.

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4 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I haven't gotten to your reasons for suspecting Experience. Is it the same as Matrim's?

Who are you talking to here? :P 

5 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I'm interested to know from whom I am distancing? It wouldn't be either of the two others you said you are suspicious of because I kind of tied myself to them by saying I thought they were good. That's the opposite of distancing. Unless you think Kynedath and I are on a team which is the only person I've distanced from this game... but you don't.

*face palm* I meant defending :P. Sorry. You might have been subtly defending either XP or Mint, but I don't think you'd do both if you are an elim (and one of them is as well)

I'll do my reads list in a bit.

 

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19 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Wow that was weird. Sorry Matrim, I read your whole post in TJ's voice

I'll get back and do a proper response to you instead

Ah, I see. I guess I'll have to respond to your response again as well :P 

Reads List, from most trusted to least trusted, sorry for block of text...

  • Sart- Was scanned village. There has been no reason to doubt this. Village read
  • TJ Shade- The tone and wording of TJ's posts has read very village to me. They also are decently in agreement with me on suspects and things. I doubt this is a pocket. Village read
  • Illwei- See above. Mainly gut, but I'm liking the feel of Illwei's posts this game. Mild Village read
  • Lord_Silberfarben- Was the person to scan Sart. An elim probably would be more inclined to not mention the scan result. Mild Village read
  • Ashbringer- Not a lot of posts, but I remember thinking their posts were okay. But still a Null read
  • The Young Pyromancer- Similar to above, though I think my gut liked the feel of Ash's posts more (Though that might be just that Pyro has posted more.) Null read
  • Kynedath- Idk, initially a gut elim read but hasn't really said anything since I started questioning that. Maybe gut very slight elim read
  • Frozen Mint- Initially started out as a gut village- but voted Mist D1, will little reasoning, and her posts have gotten more elimy to me as the game goes on. Slight gut Elim read
  • Elkanah- Nothing really here except a gut. Might be tunneling, probably should investigate to get actual reasoning for this :P Gut Elim read
  • Lotus- I suspect Lotus for reasons mentioned prior, but being okay with dying and asking to get scanned seems very sincere. I would switch her with Elk but I don't have a reason for my read on Elk, so... Gut Elim read
  • Experience- My main suspect right now. Seemed to defend Vapor D2- but not in an extreme way, more subtly- and might have also defended Lotus, I don't remember. I can't recall who their suspicions were, if they have said any. Elim read 
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I’m going to go on a limb and say there’s not five more Elims... :P

I’m fine with lynching Experience next cycle, or at least planning on it until she makes another post. Secondary suspicion would be Mint, although I’m wary about that being a tunnel. I’d also appreciate the suggested scan on Lotus.

Also, I’m the one who sent the anonymous message to TJ with Planning. It concerned Sart and what I thought TJ found suspicious, and turns out 1) my suspicion was different than TJ’s and 2) Silber made any alternative suspicion on Sart mostly useless.

(I was a little hesitant to say so because of the double passions, but... eh. There’s already too many people thinking they’re gonna die.)

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Going back to Vapor's previous (and only) elim game MR44, there was some serious distancing she attempted between her and Araris even though it wasn't in C1. So yeah, I'd say it's not a stretch to assume she might have distanced herself from Experience and/or Mint. 

My reads are similar to Matrim's. The only differences would be - village on Ashbringer, Null on Elkanah (probably would have been village if not for that statement supporting Experience/Mint), and gut village on Kynedath.  

Confirming that the context of the AN PM was the same as Ash said, and I had deduced it was from Ash because he stated in-thread that he kinda knew my secret reasoning for vote on Sart.

Also, I think it's making it easier for the elims if we tell our actions on the same night rather than the next morning even if the action is harmless. For example, Matrim and Elkanah have told they have Connection so the elims know they do not have dangerous actions like Survival which can redirect the elim kill back to the elims. So Matrim and Elkanah are now "safe targets" for the elims. 

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2 hours ago, Elkanah said:

Wait, I found where you changed on Sart, but not Kynedath.

I don't remember saying that I was no longer suspicious of Kynedath, but I thought he posted something after D1 that wasn't analysis, and because that's why I was slightly suspicious of him, I have put him back at Null Null. 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Was the person to scan Sart. An elim probably would be more inclined to not mention the scan result

you're assuming an elim would actually use an alignment scan if they got it, and I would argue that an elim could be inclined to mention a village, or anyone as village, as they would get village cred :P.

i swear there was something else I wanted to say but I don;t remember now...

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Very quickly, some things to note in case I die:

  • Suspicious of TJ for change in tone and being slightly less active in the thread than they usually are. He's just seemed different than previous games. I'm wondering if this is his first game as an elim.
  • Suspicious of Kynedath. A lot of their activity has been role analysis and I've seen little in the way of suspicions. He voted on Vapor after Vapor claimed.
  • I still haven't gone back and reviewed cycle 1 but I'm inclined to give Lotus a village read, given that they requested to be scanned. Could be a bluff, knowing that the village is unlikely to get a scan, but it honestly wasn't a given that they'd be lynched next cycle so seems like a more risky move for an elim.

 

Unfortunately, I'm very busy today so can't do a more in-depth post. I'll likely be swamped til Tuesday (well I'll try to take a break tomorrow but we'll see how it goes) but I'll try to keep popping in.

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1 minute ago, Frozen Mint said:

Very quickly, some things to note in case I die:

Just cause I'm curious, what makes you think you might die?

2 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

Suspicious of TJ for change in tone and being slightly less active in the thread than they usually are. He's just seemed different than previous games. I'm wondering if this is his first game as an elim.

I hope not. If so, I've been pocketed very soundly, applause to TJ if this is the case. But I don't think TJ's tone is that different, and with schools starting up thread activity is excusable.

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I'm kind of checked out on this game right now, but I can at least provide some useful informatio

Spoiler

 

Considering that I'm likely to die tonight, I might as well share whatever info I've got. I actually received the Passion of Research Night 1. I used it on TJ Shade. He's a villager. which lines up with what happened in the Day Cycle yesterday.

So, my trust reads are definitely TJ and Matrim, for nailing the lynch on Vapor. I'm definitely suspicious of Experience. They tried really hard to defend Vapor without implicitly defending them, and it seems suspicious.

 

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3 hours ago, Elkanah said:

Sart - Is suspicious of Pyro over Elandera's last post. Fair enough, I don't have reason yet to trust Pyromancer either. What are your thoughts now that we found Vapor @Sart

Illwei - Doesn't believe TJ and I are elims together. I also want to believe TJ is village. Suspicious of Ashbringer's fishing for info. Here is a list of reads. Illwei was unsettled or worse by Experience, Matrim, TJ, Pyro and myself. Of those, I would be most suspicious of Pyro, but only by process of elimination. Here Slightly earlier, Illwei is sus of Kynedath, Vapor, Pyro and Sart. 24 hours apart and Pyro and Vapor are the only two that made both lists. What changed your mind about Kynedath and Sart in those 24 hours? @Illwei Wait, I found where you changed on Sart, but not Kynedath.

Matrims Dice - Top suspects are Lotus and Experience. Thinks he's going to die. Seconds that we should scan Lotus. I went back to find the reasons for suspicion on Lotus and Experience. Reason for suspecting Lotus. Reason for suspecting Experience. That's a fair call. Experience defends Vapor in the post above this. That's pretty incriminating and I may need to reconsider my position on Experience.

Matrims Dice - Doing again because it changed- I won't link because it's up three posts. Top five suspects are Experience, Lotus, Me, Mint and Kynedath. As I said, I'll revise my thoughts on Experience and I reserve the right to revise Frozen Mint after I've done the analysis here that I want. Looks like he's lightening on Lotus, but we could really just use a scan there. Kynedath is another good scan target while I'm on the subject. I'm very keen to hear a reason to suspect me. I understand that I have a chaotic playstyle which can make me a little harder to read, but I challenge you to come up with any evidence. Or better yet, questions that I can answer with things that will confuse and delight the moderator if nothing else. ;)

Experience -  Voted on Vapor after her claim. Okay honest opinion. I think he was the one she was apologizing to at the end of the day turn. He claimed he had a double counting vote. He probably told her she should have been more coy about being an elim because he could have saved her with the vote. Every time he mentions Vapor it's pretty clear they work as a team. I bow to your wisdom @Matrim's Dice. Experience defended Vapor and Lotus and Pyro. That said, I have a hard time believe it's as easy as that. It makes me wonder if Lotus and Pyro are village. which would leave Kynedath and Ashbringer as my top suspects after Experience.

I looked back through his posts and the most useful ones are the ones where he goes in depth on specific people. He decided Matrim was elim, Lotus was neutral, and Illwei was village. So Lotus could be a teammate or not. I'm still fairly certain of Matrim and Illwei's alignments.

Frozen Mint - Here is a post I'm sorry I never responded to. The only people she lists as elims are Vapor and Experience. I don't think she needed to say Experience was bad this early if she was an elim and I maintain my earlier read for now. Null reads on Illwei, Lotus, TJ Shade, Kynedath and Pyromancer. Any updates to those five with the added info from the lynch @Frozen Mint?

Ooh another post. Good. Suspicious of TJ... hmm. The thing is I'm not. Wow, how did you know my question before I posted??? Way to anticipate. 

TJ Shade - Expressed suspicion of Sart early, but seems satisfied with Lord Silberfarben's scan. Main suspicions are Experience, Lotus, Mint and Kynedath. Do you have support for reading Ashbringer as village? I don't have any indicators either way yet, but then I haven't done my read of their most recent reads yet. 

Working on Ashbringer, I found a post I wanted to highlight. Good job here. The linked post is the one that gave me the idea to do this one. I do like lists, and having a list of lists is even better. Of course we still don't know if it was Vapor or Experience who submitted the kill, but we can be fairly sure it was one of the two.

Lord Silberfarben - Trusts Sart. This is all

Lotus - Wouldn't it be interesting if Lotus got survival? Just a thought. So much more has been said about Lotus than by Lotus. I recommend using the find function and looking at how many times their name comes up. Shocking. That said, I can't find anywhere that you suspect anyone. Would you be willing to give us your top three suspects and top three trusts? @Lotus

Kynedath - Defended Lotus. This is everything relevant.

The Young Pyromancer - Wow, I have found a reason to suspect Lotus. Thank you Pyro! 

Ashbringer - Has only expressed suspicion of Mint and Irkedness at me. If it helps any, I don't think the game will last long enough for you to have tried illegal stuff twice ;). More seriously, are you still suspicious of Frozen Mint or have your suspicions evolved?

 

 

Fwew, that took some work. I adjusted the colors appropriately, but the order remains since some things reference things after them and so they should stay after them.

The next logical step is to provide a list of who is suspected by whom and include reasons. Unfortunately I'm a little spent by this last list, so it may have to wait until tomorrow. The good news is we all know who we are lynching so I have time for overcomplicated shenanigans like this. 

 

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Vapor had poked two of her elim teammates D1. She couldn't have expected to be lynched D2, and if she got away with it it would be a very successful distancing tactic. Experience is currently my main suspect, and Mint is on the bubble for me, so this is a possibility I won't be brushing aside.

That being said, with you also on the bubble for me, this post sorta reads like distancing to me as well, though I don't think elim!you would do that if both XP and Mint are elims.

I maintain that Mint is unlikely to be an eliminator. It looks like she really was just the last person to show up and that's why she was poked. When you say "two of her elim teammates" it sounds like you believe there are more than three elims. Is this the case?

Also, what does "get away with it" mean. Sorry. I don't mean to be confrontational. I'm just creatively spent for a minute so I'm reading super far into your wordings even though I believe you are village.

haha. I've tried to be less subtle about it now. I am explicitly defending Mint. If she's bad, then I've duped myself. Just jumped right into her pocket. I never claimed to be good at werewolf. I just like doing dumb stuff and looking for patterns. wow, I start writing scary stuff when I'm overtired. I don't know how you guys do it. time to stop before I really mess something up.

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24 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I'm very keen to hear a reason to suspect me. I understand that I have a chaotic playstyle which can make me a little harder to read, but I challenge you to come up with any evidence. Or better yet, questions that I can answer with things that will confuse and delight the moderator if nothing else. ;)

Yeah, I really don't have any. It started with your first post of the game, with something that I don't remember that rubbed off on me the wrong way, but since then I've gotten nothing really bad from you and sorta just... never changed my read. But after that last post of yours, I can say you're probably village. Idk where I was going with the elim read on you. Maybe I just wanted more elim reads :/

24 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Okay honest opinion. I think he was the one she was apologizing to at the end of the day turn. He claimed he had a double counting vote. He probably told her she should have been more coy about being an elim because he could have saved her with the vote. Every time he mentions Vapor it's pretty clear they work as a team. I bow to your wisdom @Matrim's Dice.

Ok, cool :P 

24 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

TJ Shade - Expressed suspicion of Sart early, but seems satisfied with Lord Silberfarben's scan. Main suspicions are Experience, Lotus, Mint and Kynedath. Do you have support for reading Ashbringer as village? I don't have any indicators either way yet, but then I haven't done my read of their most recent reads yet. 

In case you didn't see, Sart scanned him as village.

24 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I maintain that Mint is unlikely to be an eliminator. It looks like she really was just the last person to show up and that's why she was poked. When you say "two of her elim teammates" it sounds like you believe there are more than three elims. Is this the case?

I had initially assumed there was four, though three also makes sense.

24 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Also, what does "get away with it" mean. Sorry. I don't mean to be confrontational. I'm just creatively spent for a minute so I'm reading super far into your wordings even though I believe you are village.

'Get away with it' as in if Vapor had successfully distanced herself from her teammates instead of dying and it probably backfiring on her. If her death hadn't been so abrupt, we would have significantly less to suspect about XP and in the future, if Vapor was lynched, we probably wouldn't feel so strongly about him either. Idk if that makes any sense.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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31 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Lotus - Wouldn't it be interesting if Lotus got survival? Just a thought. So much more has been said about Lotus than by Lotus. I recommend using the find function and looking at how many times their name comes up. Shocking. That said, I can't find anywhere that you suspect anyone. Would you be willing to give us your top three suspects and top three trusts? @Lotus

Hey-o, sorry I’ve had a long week. Today’s the last day though, so :D

Who I trust:

Matrim: Mat feels very village this round to me. Even though he has been questioning me, all of his reasoning on doing so are very sound and well thought out. He hasn’t been jumping to conclusions.

Sart: Obvious reasons, because of silber’s scan. Still a little wary, but I trust them.

Silber: I trust Silber a little less then the other two. Still in my trust bucket, but I worry that his scan claim was to gain village trust.

Who I’m suspicious of:

Pyro: Haven’t seen a ton of stuff from pyro. Also, hasn’t been up to their usual shenanigans.

Mint: Idk why, mint’s stuff just feels off. She did list vapor as being suspicious though, so... shrug?

Expirience: Most strong elim read. Agree with everything in your post, Elk, about them.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Pyro: Haven’t seen a ton of stuff from pyro. Also, hasn’t been up to their usual shenanigans.

PMs being closed hampers that, and I am really annoyed that I got the ability to make a PM but forgot to use it...

On the subject of anonymous PMs, I've been thinking about them, and since Survival could redirect a message, you should refer to the person you are massaging by name in the message, so if someone else receives it, they know the message isn't for them. 

Getting some answers on rules questions, then I might have more to say.

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2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Just cause I'm curious, what makes you think you might die?

Any of us might die. We don't know who the elims will choose to kill. I don't think I'm a particularly likely target but I'm still a potential target.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hey @Frozen Mint, what do you think of that? :P 

I was wrong. :P Alright TJ, you're in my village reads now.

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