Long Game 69: The Politics of the Passions

[Experience he/him]

Everyone's so quiet! @Illwei @Matrim's Dice @Lotus @Frozen Mint @Kynedath @Lord_Silberfarben @Elkanah @The Young Pyromancer @Ashbringer @Sart. What are everyone's thoughts? Talk people, talk!

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Okay, rules clarifications:

If a scan is redirected, it is listed as the person who is actually scanned, so we don't have to worry about someone scanning an elim using survival and thinking they're a villager.

I was RBed, and not because TJ died. This means XP was RBed and it got directed to me, OR I got rbed twice, OR XP is lying and someone else RBed me. Probably the first or second one.

2 hours ago, Kynedath said:

In the meantime I looked into why people are voting for Experience and it looks like it was their posts defending Vapor? That could be an elim sign, but it could also be their actual thoughts.

Also because of the fact they used survival last night, which I don't think is weird by itself, but I do think is weird when taking into the context of how they claimed it.

[+Lotus she/her]

Uh... I’m willing to vote experience, but I’m just waiting to hear more accusations. Right now the only one seems a little flimsy, but it is better then any other lead.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I've been accused. Not sure why.

[Ashbringer he/him]

My only other accusation was Frozen Mint, ish. And since Experience voted on her with almost no prompting besides a vote, I'm going to say that's not a wise counter lynch to make.

However, I'll look to see if I can find another candidate.

Speaking of which, did anybody scan Lotus? Or someone else?

[Illwei]

10 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

My only other accusation was Frozen Mint, ish. And since Experience voted on her with almost no prompting besides a vote, I'm going to say that's not a wise counter lynch to make.

I feel the same. 

I- okay I am suspicious of Experience, especially after looking over things again, but I am kinda worried about how fast this seemed to pick up? I mean, I think we were talking about it before/during the night so maybe it's not all that weird, but just- I guess- Yeah. okay. idk.

I might end up voting on experience, but I'll wait a bit, like Lotus said.

[Mat he/him]

I'm here!

1 hour ago, Experience said:

Everyone's so quiet! @Illwei @Matrim's Dice @Lotus @Frozen Mint @Kynedath @Lord_Silberfarben @Elkanah @The Young Pyromancer @Ashbringer @Sart. What are everyone's thoughts? Talk people, talk!

It's not been especially quiet, no more than previous cycles... I guess it's understandable that you don't want to die, though.

53 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I've been accused. Not sure why.

I believe it was something about how you were staying under the radar, though I don't think that can be reasoning used now.

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I- okay I am suspicious of Experience, especially after looking over things again, but I am kinda worried about how fast this seemed to pick up? I mean, I think we were talking about it before/during the night so maybe it's not all that weird, but just- I guess- Yeah. okay. idk.

That's fair, but it picked up so fast because I voted XP in my first post of the cycle  At this point I'm so sure about his alignment as an elim that I don't really see that as weird? if that makes sense. I dunno, most of the other votes on XP have seemed reasonable enough to me. The weirdest imo is Ash's, but I think it's fine.

The way this is currently is if XP flips elim, which I'm 95% sure will be the case, I will have zero idea who the remaining elim/s are. Tbh I probably would have a better idea of the team if he somehow flips village, but as I don't find that likely in the slightest I won't consider it unless it happens. I think our best bet for a next candidate if XP flips elim will be vote analysis, the more resistant of the voters on him, but as of right now I have no idea who his teammates could be besides a few gut reads that are all diminishing to Null.

It's possible that XP is bussing Mint, but that might be too on-the-nose.

[Experience he/him]

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Tbh I probably would have a better idea of the team if he somehow flips village,

Well, at least my death will be able to help find the elims. 

[Mint11 she/her]

I'm going to give Illwei a village read for their vote on Vapor D1:

Quote

I'm going to throw a vote on Vapor for now because they're doing my number....uh....3? top ranked suspicious activity of tagging other people to talk more but not really talking themselves.

Given that it was a D1 vote, it could be distancing, but I don't think Illwei would've backed it up with solid reasoning if it was a distancing tactic. At least not without providing reasoning for multiple players to prevent drawing attention to Vapor.

The only issue I have is how soon did Vapor announce in the elim doc that she was okay with dying? Did the other elims treat Vapor as a villager in the thread from the start, since Vapor was okay with sacrificing herself? If Experience turns out to be a villager, I'm going to presume that none of the elims made any moves to ensure Vapor's survival when doing any analysis going forward. Come to think of it, the elims didn't break the tie between Mist and Vapor on D1 which is... interesting.

I truly don't see anything suspicious about Lotus' D1 vote. Yes, it saved Vapor, so it's possible that an elim!Lotus would have that motive. But I'm not really willing to give them an elim read on that alone.

Right now I'd say my top suspicions are Experience and Kynedath but holding off somewhat on Kynedath until they post their suspicions. I suspect I'm going to have to re-evaluate some of my village reads as well...

@Ashbringer Who are your suspicions? It struck me that you're giving reasoning behind your lynch votes but haven't really posted much on reads beyond that.

 

Quote

Hmm. This seems unusual to me, and I don't remember if you previously said if/why you are suspicious of me, and it seems like your just jumping on a train to kill me. 

@Experience I mentioned my suspicion of you on D2:

Quote

Experience: strange that they didn't initially vote on Vapor when posting their reads since the reads seem to suggest that Vapor is the best lynch candidate, it's natural to be unsure this early in the game, but votes can be changed later in the cycle. Only voted after Vapor claimed- elim

 

[Illwei]

I went back to see if I was right about something and I wasn't. For some reason I thought he posted his reads identifying Vapor as the best lynch, and then posted his post about none of those being good lynch targets. I do see it as a hasty defense, and then a hasty cover-up though. then follow that with the weird way he said he used survival. so-idk. 

My only problem is that because I've never played with him before, all I can do is compare him to how I would do things, which- uh, isn't exactly the best way to do things. :P.

I guess he is the best suspicion I have so far, so ...Experience? I honestly feel like my vote isn't important right now because there's already 4 people on him, and I mean, idk. :P. I just need to not second guess myself. I really hate voting because I hate it being my fault when a villager dies

 

Uh, did anyone learn the order of actions? Because...would RBs bounce off of survival or would they prevent the use of Survival?

Edited September 5, 2020 by Illwei

[Experience he/him]

48 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Uh, did anyone learn the order of actions? Because...would RBs bounce off of survival or would they prevent the use of Survival?

I'm guessing that they bounce off of survival because pyro was RB'd.

Edited September 5, 2020 by Experience

[Experience he/him]

Some people were asking who I thought were better lynch targets, and so I looked through and found this:

Sart the Bard - Silber confirmed him as village, but then he confirmed TJ last minute- that gains him village cred, but he said it late enough that when he went to kill TJ, no one would be fast enough to save him. Now you might be asking yourself “Experience, if this is the case, then how would he have scanned TJ on the same night that Silber scanned him, and still shown up as village?” well, I’ll tell you. He used survival on that night, and then decided to claim an align scan because there’s no way to prove he didn’t use it, and Elims don’t need an align scan to know people’s alignment. Therefore Sart is definitely an elim, and Mint isn’t, so I’ll put my vote there. 

@Illwei @Matrim's Dice @Lotus @Frozen Mint @Kynedath @Lord_Silberfarben @Elkanah @The Young Pyromancer @Ashbringer @Sart. Tagged everyone so they would see this. 

EDIT: Sorry for the double post!

Edited September 5, 2020 by Experience

[Ashbringer he/him]

Uhh...

No.

One, I'm pretty sure that people are told if they are redirected. Pyro said so, at least, although I'm not sure why he would know. Probably asking Zillah via GM PM. ( @Zillah, could you confirm in-thread?)

Two, why would an Elim!Sart claim they found someone as village, then kill them? What possible benefit does that bring? The only thing I could see is an 'excuse' for the Elims not to kill him as a confirmed, but seeing as that's where Protection would be going anyway that doesn't need justification, that's a smart move by the Elims. 

Three, why claim an action at all, then? He didn't/doesn't need village credit, he's got enough of that if he's really a falsly-Village-confirmed Elim. Why not claim protection, connection, or even AFK?

[Experience he/him]

Based on the...interesting...responses I got on my last post, I decided to do some further digging- which only proved to further my evidence (I will get back to this later), but what I have concluded is that Ashbringer is most definitely the elim we should lynch. My first point is that they have managed to stay sooo under the radar that no one has given them anything but a Null read. Next I would like to draw attention to their individual slip-ups. First, they call me a “she”. If they were actually suspicious of me, they would have visited my profile to gain more info, and found my correct pronouns there. Now my big point. Their claim about getting the “Passion of Planning”. Now I have no doubt that they were the one to send the message to TJ, but their reasoning is what I have a problem with. Since Sart is most definitely an elim (see my earlier post), Whatever TJ saw was also most definitely something that Sart was doing as an elim. Now I’m positive about what Ash did: Ash, being a good teammate, used the planning PM to try and figure out what suspicious action Sart was taking so that Sart could know what to not do again. Further evidence to this claim -This is what I said I’d get back to- is the obvious defense of Sart by Ashbringer in his latest post. First, he claims that redirected actions are seen as redirected. How would you know this unless you yourself got a redirected action? And why did you try to pass it off as “what Pyro said”, absolving you of any consequences that come from this claim. As for the other points, I have already explained them in my post, so you are defending by countering my points with evidence I have already countered myself. Based on this- I have decided to switch my vote from Sart to Ashbringer for being so obviously suspicious I don’t know how you have managed to stay alive this far.

[+Lotus she/her]

Ok yeah that does it for me Expirience 

Sorry if you are village, but that last post right their... I’m also mildly suspicious of ash but that is jumping to conclusions left and right.

[Ashbringer he/him]

15 minutes ago, Experience said:

First, they call me a “she”.

Er...

Oops. Sorry.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

XP has gone into troll mode. Ignore them.

EDIT:

General suspicion tier list, for reference.

Tier 0: XP. By going into trolling, they've basically admitted they're an elim. If they aren't, I'd be surprised.

Tier 1: Mint, Lotus, due to their interactions with known elims.

Tier 2: Me, Kynedath, Ash. Me and Kyne due to lurking, ash due to a mixed bunch of slight suspicions/trusts.

Tier 3: Elkanah. Everyone's been ignoring them. Also, Illwei, because of D1. See TJ's reasoning before.

Tier 4: Sart, Silber, Matrim. Sart and Silber would have to be in a weird gambit, but it's certainly possible. Silber's above Illwei here because, well, see TJ's stuff. Hope this is helpful.

Edited September 5, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer

[Coffeecat she/her]

1 hour ago, Experience said:

Therefore Sart is definitely an elim, and Mint isn’t, so I’ll put my vote there. 

Wow

see what you get by clearing someone?

 

the elims try to lynch them.

not even try to kill them at night.

outright lynching

[+Lotus she/her]

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

XP has gone into troll mode. Ignore them.

Thanks. Will do.

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Tier 2: Me, Kynedath, Ash. Me and Kyne due to lurking, ash due to a mixed bunch of slight suspicions/trusts.

I think I was a teeny tad bit confused about you putting yourself there until I realized you meant like, an average of everyone's reads, not your reads specifically.

Also your tiers being upside down to me is throwing me off a bit, but ok :P.

Also could you link Tj's stuff?

EDIT: Who gave me an upvote for this???

Edited September 6, 2020 by Illwei

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

22 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I think I was a teeny tad bit confused about you putting yourself there until I realized you meant like, an average of everyone's reads, not your reads specifically.

Also your tiers being upside down to me is throwing me off a bit, but ok :P.

Also could you link Tj's stuff?

 

Here you go: 

Yeah, I find excluding myself from summations of general suspicions is kind of silly, given that the point is to give a reference frame for EVERYONE, not just me. If I made a list, it'd look more like:

0: XP

1: Lotus

1.1: Mint

2: Kyne, Elkanah

3: Ash, Illwei

4: Sart, Silb

4.5: Matrim

Sart and Silb I am PRETTY sure are village, but it is unusual that Silb wasn't killed yet. Focusing on more high-profile targets like TJ does makes sense however, and there's also the fact that I don't see Silber pulling this kind of gambit off under his own initiative. I'm just paranoid, since this is very much like something I'd do, especially as I usually only ramp up the chaos as the game goes longer, and I like to switch things up.

[+Lotus she/her]

31 minutes ago, Illwei said:

EDIT: Who gave me an upvote for this???

*slowly raises hand*
 

[Illwei]

8 minutes ago, Lotus said:

*slowly raises hand*

Oh...Okay? I mean I'm not mad :P, just...con...fused? :P.

14 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

but it is unusual that Silb wasn't killed yet

I mean, It makes sense to me, because besides the occasional comment Silber is pretty inactive. For the same reasons I wouldn't Kill Ash, Lotus, or Kyne this game. Also yeah, I agree that I don't see him claiming an alignment scan as an Elim lol.

It still makes me uncomfortable that the top of your list isn't your most trusted :P.

And I mean if (when?) the Experience is shown to be Elim, Matrim- I mean, I don't see why an elim would help/lead a lynch on two Elims in a row. so- yeah.-Pretty solid village. unless it's a stunt that would only rival Araris' in the last game. not bussing just one, but two fellow elims in a row :P. but yeah. If that is true...then...I mean if there are only three elims then Idk how that would even work. anyways- enough absolutely meaningless speculation.

Edited September 6, 2020 by Illwei

[+Lotus she/her]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Oh...Okay? I mean I'm not mad :P, just...con...fused? :P.

It’s just that in the other forum I belong to you basically upvote everything and I keep accidentally doing that here.

[Experience he/him]

3 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

XP has gone into troll mode. Ignore them.

What do you mean!? These are my reads on a few people who I believe are elims!