Long Game 69: The Politics of the Passions

[Coffeecat she/her]

11 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

It's only round 3, and TJ and Mat make sense for Elim kills. I don't want to kill Sart because (as far as I can tell) the only way for him to be Elim is if Silber was an Elim. If there's a fourth Elim I'm back to suspecting Kynedath but for now: Lord_Silberfarben. 

literally said doesnt want to kill sart because the only way they are elim is if i am elim.

then proceeds to vote me as if i were elim...

why not go for sart in the first place

 

also, why not go for someone who actually did something sus?

ashbringer

 

[Ashbringer he/him]

8 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

literally said doesnt want to kill sart because the only way they are elim is if i am elim.

then proceeds to vote me as if i were elim...

why not go for sart in the first place

 

also, why not go for someone who actually did something sus?

ashbringer

 

Because, you confirmed Sart as good.

If you are village, Sart must be village, as redirects tell you that there are redirects (apparently).

However, if you’re an Elim, that tells us nothing about Sart. You could have fake-confirmed Elim!Sart so that we trust him, or you could have confirmed Village!Sart to be an easy mislynch when you die.

In either case, it makes more sense for the Village to lynch you before a mostly-Confirmed Villager.

... and your response (and counter-vote) isn’t really helping.

[Elkanah he/him]

9 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Right, Ash is NOT up for lynch here, and is still prodding activity. Once would be fitting in, but this is calling others out, repeatedly. That's village.

As soon as I call you on it, you immediately back down. Why? You were so sure before.

I agree that I finally have a reason to think Ashbringer is village. Like I said, he was in the bottom three because I hadn't found any village tells yet. I finally found one in his attempt to solve the game, hence I removed my vote.

I still think there were only three elims. Four is a lot. I am just having a hard time reconciling three with the fact that we don't have a village claimed kill. The other option is that Matrim had a kill and used it on Lotus. As we established, Matrim and I were in a PM together in we he told me he lied about having connection. He claimed a different ability that wasn't violence, but I guess he could have lied to me, too. I was hoping someone would admit in thread that they were targeted by something he told me he would do, but it's possible he targeted Lotus or that he had a different ability than he told me. 

In short, It's possible Matrim killed Lotus. If that's the case, I stand by three elims.

I guess it's also possible Lotus killed matrim, but I don't think that's likely as Lotus was the next to be lynched and the elims could have just allowed that to happen. Maybe they thought Lotus would be scanned as good? but just kill them then as it looks like we didn't have a seer last round anyway. 

I believe Lotus was a village kill in lieu of a scan. I'd just love to know who it was. And you are correct that not knowing is making me question probably more than I should.

9 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

@Ashbringer, @Illwei, what are your thoughts on El?

Also, I've seen Kynedath viewing the thread occasionally, but not posting, for what that's worth.

I'd also like to know. My guess is Ashbringer and Illwei have come to agree with Zillah when she said: "never trust elkanah, but I don't think he is an elim." The best advice I have ever heard.

My updated trust list for now.

Sart

Illwei

Blue

Mint

Pyro

Ashbringer

Silberfarben

Kynedath 

I should explain a little. Purple is I am near certain due to mechanical or other evidence. Blue is hard evidence exists. Green is I want to trust or I have tenuous reason to trust. (I need an extra discrete color to split that.) Yellow is slight attachment to someone that may prove good based on an alignment reveal. Orange is no reason to trust. Red is most likely an elim. My internet is having trouble so I'll post this for now and come back in a bit

 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Gah. I'm much better at scheming than evaluating people.

...I'll review TJ's old analysis. It's outdated, but confirmed village, and by a good analyst.

Also, Matrim posts I found interesting:

Quote

I had initially gut-read Mint as village, and read Lotus as elim, but now when considering their recent posts I'm starting to think I could have those backwards.

Quote

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Vapor had poked two of her elim teammates D1. She couldn't have expected to be lynched D2, and if she got away with it it would be a very successful distancing tactic. Experience is currently my main suspect, and Mint is on the bubble for me, so this is a possibility I won't be brushing aside.

That being said, with you also on the bubble for me, this post sorta reads like distancing to me as well, though I don't think elim!you would do that if both XP and Mint are elims.

Quote

• Kynedath- Idk, initially a gut elim read but hasn't really said anything since I started questioning that. Maybe gut very slight elim read
• Frozen Mint- Initially started out as a gut village- but voted Mist D1, will little reasoning, and her posts have gotten more elimy to me as the game goes on. Slight gut Elim read
• Elkanah- Nothing really here except a gut. Might be tunneling, probably should investigate to get actual reasoning for this  Gut Elim read
• Lotus- I suspect Lotus for reasons mentioned prior, but being okay with dying and asking to get scanned seems very sincere. I would switch her with Elk but I don't have a reason for my read on Elk, so... Gut Elim read
• Experience- My main suspect right now. Seemed to defend Vapor D2- but not in an extreme way, more subtly- and might have also defended Lotus, I don't remember. I can't recall who their suspicions were, if they have said any. Elim read 

Also, from TJ:

Quote

Going back to Vapor's previous (and only) elim game MR44, there was some serious distancing she attempted between her and Araris even though it wasn't in C1. So yeah, I'd say it's not a stretch to assume she might have distanced herself from Experience and/or Mint. 

My reads are similar to Matrim's. The only differences would be - village on Ashbringer, Null on Elkanah (probably would have been village if not for that statement supporting Experience/Mint), and gut village on Kynedath.  

Confirming that the context of the AN PM was the same as Ash said, and I had deduced it was from Ash because he stated in-thread that he kinda knew my secret reasoning for vote on Sart.

Also, I think it's making it easier for the elims if we tell our actions on the same night rather than the next morning even if the action is harmless. For example, Matrim and Elkanah have told they have Connection so the elims know they do not have dangerous actions like Survival which can redirect the elim kill back to the elims. So Matrim and Elkanah are now "safe targets" for the elims.

 

[---]

I don’t have a lot of time to write things so this is only off the top of my head. I’ll try to look more, if I have time, later, though It is pretty close to rollover :P…

1 - Thoughts
Personally I’d rather assume 4 Elims than 3. If there only turns out to be three, then woot, nice surprise, but if there is 4 and we just all kind of assume there are 3, then that might turn out bad for us. Also 3/15 is 1/5th of the group, and 5/15 is 1/3 , so, suspension of disbelief, 4/15 is therefore ¼ :P.

Can you explain what you find interesting about those posts instead of just dumping some posts on us? Maybe it’s just me, but I mean, I could tell you what I might find interesting about those posts, or what I think you might have found interesting, but that’s different from you pointing out specific things that you find important/interesting.

2 - Kinda Reads? Kinda just more thoughts?

• Frozen Mint - I initially had them as an Elim read, based, for the most part, on D1 interactions, but I don’t know what to think based on Experience’s vote on them when he was voted up, since I don’t think that he would have voted on a teammate for a counter when other people had expressed suspicion of them.
• Kynedath - Hasn’t really posted? Seen them lurking a bit but hasn’t posted so I don’t know what to think. 
• Silber - Voted on Ash for voting on him, it seems. I don’t remember seeing Silber vote before, so that seems different to me, but that’s not really anything to go off of. 
• Elkanah - I still have them as a Village read? I was waiting to read Pyro’s post that I thought he said he was going to write about his suspicions of an Elk/Mint team? 
• Pyro - Very strong defense of Ash. but I mean, that’s understandable. Wrote a big post that I don’t understand, but that’s on me. 
• Ashbringer - They’ve been pushing for people to talk more and figure things out, I agree with Pyro that that’s pretty village. My only point against them was that they weren’t RPing and I found that weird :P, so I have them as a slight Village read rn. The paranoid part of my brain is saying they’ve just stayed more active because of the vote that was on them earlier, but-. That’s just because I don’t remember seeing them post before.
• Sart - 
   

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

It's close to rollover?

Kynedath, then.

EDIT: Flame on!

Edited September 9, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer

[Ashbringer he/him]

I’d rather lynch Frozen Mint than Kynedath. I’m fairly confident that he’s not the last Elim, and everyone seems to be saying Mint’s somewhat suspicious.

But as always I’m open to arguments.

(Silberfarben - that was more of a poke. But you’re not out of my sights yet.)

Edit: AAAAAAAH RED EVERYWHERE fixed it

Edited September 9, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Frozen Mint she/her]

I'm feeling kind of lost but I'll give some analysis a go.

Kynedath: Mostly rules analysis on D1. On D2, asked for a summary of why people are suspicions of Vapor and against a Lotus lynch. Briefly mentions that they aren't on board with an Experience lynch on D3.

I'm not sure what to make of their recent lack of activity. I'm tempted to be suspicious that we've seen little contribution from them re:lynch discussion, but would an elim hang back while they were a top suspicion? I was going to give them an elim read for flying under the radar, but flying under the radar is different from no activity at all, so I'll hold back on my suspicion for now. @Kynedath Thoughts on the game?

Ashbringer: Votes for me very late D1, staying out of the Vapor/Mist lynch, which I initially found suspicious. But he did vote on Experience not late into D3, and Experience voted on Ashbringer after their 3rd (4th?) vote switch so I'll... say village read for now.

Pyro: Before this cycle, I would have said Pyro seems to be flying under the radar somewhat. They've been posting but the posts have been short, and they seem less active than usual. Experience's initial vote on D3 was Pyro but Experience switched to me very quickly, so I don't know if Experience's vote makes me think Pyro is more likely to be village. Not really sure what to think but I'm keeping an eye on them.

Silb: Up for the lynch and hasn't posted minimally. Sharing Sart's scan results is a village move but  I don't like how they've been staying under the radar.  @Lord_Silberfarben what are your current reads?

17 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Still a little iffy on Mint. Two protections in a row is unlikely, and both on Sart, who is most likely to have protection and therefore very unlikely to be killed. (A little IKYK, but strange). And a failed protection is untraceable.

I got a passion of protection, and then a passion of passions which I used to choose protection. It did occur to me that Sart's the most likely to have protection but then I figured that if everyone who got protection figured that and decided not to protect Sart, or no one got protection... It didn't seem like a good reason not to protect him.

47 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I’d rather lynch Frozen Mint than Kynedath. I’m fairly confident that he’s not the last Elim, and everyone seems to be saying Mint’s somewhat suspicious.

A lot of people have been saying that they've found me suspicious, but it's mostly been based around gut reads so I'm not sure if there's much I can do about that. Also I'm a she 

[Ashbringer he/him]

I’m confident Kynedath isn’t the last elim. He may be one, but I’m fairly certain that he’s not the last one left.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I’d rather lynch Frozen Mint than Kynedath. I’m fairly confident that he’s not the last Elim, and everyone seems to be saying Mint’s somewhat suspicious.

But as always I’m open to arguments.

(Silberfarben - that was more of a poke. But you’re not out of my sights yet.)

Edit: AAAAAAAH RED EVERYWHERE fixed it

I've been going over some old posts, and El actually has a solid-ish reason for trusting them. I'm still suspicious of Mint, but more of Kyne, given the fact that I've seen hem viewing the thread and yet not posting. Would make sense as the last elim, feigning inactivity so we thought that someone else must be the one putting in kills.

[Kynedath]

I'm really really so sorry guys! I know I've been lurking, and I'm sorry about that. I've been meaning to get a post made but whenever I do something crops up irl. I'm at work but we are really slow, so here we go!

I don't particularly like how Ashbringer poke voted Silber during day four when there is a ton of other information to vote based on. It feels like they are trying to find something to vote on so they don't look like they're idling.

Mint seems okay to me, their most recent post looks innocent and they asked me my input nicely which I appreciate, not everyone would still have that patience this late into the game.

Pyro has been suspicious of me for a couple cycles it seems which makes sense for a villager, not jumping from suspicion to suspicion in response to the game. Village read.

I'm pretty suspicious of Silber I think, mostly gut, something about their posts seems manipulative.

It seems my strongest suspicion is Ashbringer which is convenient since it takes some of the lynch pressure off of me.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Kynedath can’t be putting in all the kills. I roleblocked him N2. There was still an Elim kill. I highly doubt that Experience being highly suspected would put in the kill, and I think we have evidence she used Survival anyway.

Edit: Ninja’d

...

So you’re suspicious of me, for voting on someone you’re suspicious of... ?

Edited September 9, 2020 by Ashbringer

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

K.  

@Kynedath, there was a vig kill last night. Did you try to kill anyone? Redirects were flying around, so any info would be helpful.

[Kynedath]

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Kynedath can’t be putting in all the kills. I roleblocked him N2. There was still an Elim kill. I highly doubt that Experience being highly suspected would put in the kill, and I think we have evidence she used Survival anyway.

Edit: Ninja’d

...

So you’re suspicious of me, for voting on someone you’re suspicious of... ?

It's not who you voted for, it's how you voted for them. And besides if Mint is an elim I doubt that they're an elim with you, you both haven't interacted the way two elims would interact.

5 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

K.  

@Kynedath, there was a vig kill last night. Did you try to kill anyone? Redirects were flying around, so any info would be helpful.

I didnt, no. I protected Elkanah last night.

[Elkanah he/him]

51 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

I didnt, no. I protected Elkanah last night.

Aww thank you!

[---]

4 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I’d rather lynch Frozen Mint than Kynedath. I’m fairly confident that he’s not the last Elim, and everyone seems to be saying Mint’s somewhat suspicious.

I don't quite understand this reasoning. You think he's an Elim, but you'd rather vote on Mint because other people find Mint suspicious?

I think I'm going to vote for Silber for right now?...I think...
@Lord_Silberfarben

EDIT: I think I kinda understand. so nvm.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Illwei

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Why are people voting Silber? I have seen NO decent explanation or reasoning.

Kynedath can't be the last elim if we go by what Ash says. And Ash probably wouldn't reveal that if they were an elim. So... Mint? 

If there is only one elim left, they're doing a very good job of it.

[Elkanah he/him]

I realize no one asked, but I wanted a vote count so I made one.

Ashbringer (2): Silberfarben, Kynedath,

Kynedath (2): Elkanah, Pyromancer,

Frozen Mint (1): Ashbringer

Silberfarben (2): Mint, Illwei

Hmm. that's closer than I thought it was. I am considering changing over to Lord Silberfarben as he is my second to least trusted for now and we get better information from his lynch- namely if he is village, we know Sart is good. If not we don't have reason to believe that and it doesn't help that Sart has not posted in 5 days.

@Sart please come join us for more murder death kill.

Edit: ninja'd by Young Pyromancer

Ashbringer (2): Silberfarben, Kynedath,

Kynedath (1): Elkanah,

Frozen Mint (2): Ashbringer, Pyromancer,

Silberfarben (2): Mint, Illwei

Ed2t:

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Kynedath can’t be putting in all the kills. I roleblocked him N2. There was still an Elim kill. I highly doubt that Experience being highly suspected would put in the kill, and I think we have evidence she used Survival anyway.

This is interesting. I'm going to go make a map. back soon

Edited September 9, 2020 by Elkanah

[Frozen Mint she/her]

14 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Why are people voting Silber? I have seen NO decent explanation or reasoning.

I can't speak for anyone else but I feel like he's flying under the radar and I don't have better leads. Their vote on Ash also seems somewhat defensive but that could be me tunneling.

I also do not like this tie at all. And not just because I'm one of the top lynch candidates.

[---]

24 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Why are people voting Silber? I have seen NO decent explanation or reasoning.

Personally it's because he's semi-inactive and I agree with Elk that it'll tell us something About Sart. I don't know what to think of his Vote on Ash, but- I don't know.

I didn't notice that Mint had voted Silber, I don't know how I feel because I want to believe that Mint is vil, but something keeps telling me not to trust them. I don't know what to think of the fact that Ash voted on mint because "everyone seems to be saying they're somewhat suspicious" but I don't think an elim would outright say that if they didn't have any leads. I don't quite like that Silber started a vote on Ash seemingly because Ash voted on him? 

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by Illwei

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

The deception people have been pitching does NOT seem like the kind of thing Silber would do. I think it's highly unlikely for them to be an elim.

Just now, Illwei said:

Personally it's because he's semi-inactive and I agree with Elk that it'll tell us something About Sart. I don't know what to think of his Vote on Ash, but- I don't know.

Semi-inactivity is pretty normal for Silber. And Elk's a big suspicion for me.

Actually, you know what? I just found this gem while looking through old posts. I know I'm going back and forth a bunch, but I still think Silber seems like an awful idea here. So Mist.

If it comes down to it, I'll probably vote Ash, since I think Elk being lynched if village would put us at a big disadvantage, so they should be a 'last resort' of sorts.

[Elkanah he/him]

soo this is not at all the map that I set out to make. I wanted to make a map of claimed actions that would provide information on who could have submitted elim kills which night. However, I went too far back and started rereading Day 1 and I finally understand why you all think Mint is suspicious... and I'm afraid I'm starting to agree.
Post 1

This is where Vapor poke votes Frozen Mint. I thought this is why so many people suspected her. I maintain that being poked by an eliminator is completely not alignment indicative. Some argued it could be when Vapor is the one poking. That wasn't enough for me. I was further vindicated in my thought process when Experience voted for her. 

Post 2

Here Elandera also votes for Mint to resurrect the contribution crusade

Post 3

Vapor begins to defend Mint despite voting for her. I have realized this is the actual bit that makes Vapor's vote on Mint suspect

I have more coming but I need to respond to Pyro's post.

What about that post makes you less likely to vote for Mint. I mean, I remember having the same reaction on Night 2 when I responded to that post, but what about that post just now spoke to you?

[Ashbringer he/him]

My vote's staying on Mint unless I need to move to live. Possibly switching to Elkanah, but I don't see anyone else super suspicious and Elkanah has no votes. (I agree that Silber fake-claiming would be somewhat uncharacteristic, but it's hard to characterize Silber doing anything. I still think I'd rather lynch Mint.)

Except... hold on. Kynedath, you protected Elkanah? Not Matrim who requested protection or Sart who was confirmed?

Hmm.

[---]

23 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Semi-inactivity is pretty normal for Silber

I- I- yeah. I'm more lost on reads. I know it's normal for Silber. and yeah, remembering that this whole "manipulatey thing" that Mint mentioned doesn't sound like something he would do unless people are spoon feeding him posts, which, I mean, I don't think so? I also know that he doesn't really vote, besides this one vote for ASh because Ash voted on him, and I was thinking that I'd rather lynch someone that doesn't vote than people who do, which now that I think about it and actually write it down, voting on someone who doesn't really do anything doesn't tell us anything. so. 

so, Silber? because I would like to err...ere?...air? on the side of caution. 
I am going to repeat that I don't like the idea that there are only 3 Elims. I don't like how much people are assuming there are only 3 elims. It seems much safer to me to assume there are 4, and then be happy if it turns out to be only one more.

A part of me wants to vote Mint because part of me thinks that she's suspicious, and it's really easy to claim protection as an elim, as no one can really prove that. all you have to do is claim protection on someone that you're not going to kill? 

I ended up voting Silber in an attempt to find someone who wasn't mint, but- 
I'm going to switch to Mint, final answer. yeah. okay. Mint. 

EDIT: wow look three posts that my computer failed show me

Edited September 10, 2020 by Illwei
my dog keeps trying to eat my computer

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

5 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

What about that post makes you less likely to vote for Mint. I mean, I remember having the same reaction on Night 2 when I responded to that post, but what about that post just now spoke to you?

The accuracy. 

First, Experience. The XP suspicion hadn't blown up at that point yet, so not just making them a suspect, but placing them just after the outed elim is one bold play.

Second read, null

Third, village on Matrim. Says a gut read. Accurate.

Fourth, fifth, sixth all null.

Seventh, expressed that the earlier posts weren't super indicative, but that they claimed, so voted. I doubt an elim would have waffled like that.

Rest of list, mostly irrelevant.

The only two negative reads on that list were both of people who were elims. Not Lotus or me, who were also suspects at the time, and could have easily justified at least a 'slightly elim'. Mint is confusing, but this post is at least a decent indicator of villaginess.

Quote

Hello! It looks as if I'm going to die as it seems like the majority of people have an elim read of me for some reason. I'm just going to say that I got survival and chose pyro. At first I didn't want to use it because someone might have scanned me, but then I realized that more than half of the people want me dead, so I chose to use it. Hopefully someone scanned me so we can at least see what pyro's alignment is. One thing I see is that people are thinking that either me lotus or mint are elims, which is kinda wierd cause I am getting village vibes from both of them. I'm going to vote on pyro, for now, cause I'm not really sure who the elims are and they seem to be not talking as much. 

Also, this post from XP looks like an attempt to set up future suspicion of Lotus and mint upon their death. That also makes me consider them probably village.