Mid-Range Game 44: Obligations

[+Sorana she/her]

34 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

As far as actions, there are only a few that have game ending potential and they're probably heavily restricted. It's very possible that Gears was our only coinshot and Illwei our only lurcher. That being likely, I don't think any of us have especially potent actions.

Or vials. Matrim mentioned not having a vial in C1 and even asking whether he would be able to gain one to change that. So regardless of some roles revealed, we can't count on everybody being able to use them/ having been able to do so.

And yes, I will change my vote. If you are an elim, congratulations for manipulating me, but for now I favor Sart over STINK, if only because STINK is active and offered a few thoughts and Sart hasn't. That is still a tie though, but unless someone else changes their votes as well, that will be the case anyway.

==============

EDIT:

ninja'd by @Araris Valerian ....

so Araris, @Elkanah as we all seem to share some suspicion on Vapor and he is my number one elim suspect at the moment - what do you think about lynching them? Or Araris, what are your thoughts on Sart? I would really like to avoid another tie.

 

Edited August 21, 2020 by Sorana

[Elkanah he/him]

3 minutes ago, Sorana said:

so Araris, @Elkanah as we all seem to share some suspicion on Vapor and he is my number one elim suspect at the moment - what do you think about lynching them?

What? Lynching someone I'm suspicious of? But what about the crusade?

No, fair enough.

Sart Vapor

[+Sorana she/her]

Sart Vapor

Let's see if someone else changes their vote/ places one. And I really hope I'm not completely wrong.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Yeah, I'll vote on Vapor. She's definitely a top suspect for me, especially after this cycle.

Edited August 21, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[Elkanah he/him]

Look at that. We decided on a lynch and it's not the very last minute

 

[Vapor she/her]

30 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, @Vapor’s post makes me pretty suspicious. Those posts have been misinterpreted/taken out of context and it seems pretty deliberate to me. I have been consistent in my suspicion of Elkanah (from C1 activity) and in my belief that Vapor was a better lynch option than Gears.

@STINK, during C2 I posted this:

And you responded. So before the end of C2 you were definitely aware that Gears had mentioned claiming elim outside this game. So your second reason for voting on me is just false. You didn’t have to read another game to be aware of the fact since I plainly stated it. Gears also said C1:

Which isn’t as overt as my post, but definitely is in line with the fact that Gears’s intent to do this was unrelated to the game in particular.

I’m also going to retract from STINK for now. I didn’t think I would ultimately cause a tie C1, and I don’t want one now. I’ll replace my vote if someone else gets 2 votes that I agree with lynching. Like Vapor! She's really sus.

How did you guess? That was my plan the whole time! Good job!

28 minutes ago, Sorana said:

Or vials. Matrim mentioned not having a vial in C1 and even asking whether he would be able to gain one to change that. So regardless of some roles revealed, we can't count on everybody being able to use them/ having been able to do so.

And yes, I will change my vote. If you are an elim, congratulations for manipulating me, but for now I favor Sart over STINK, if only because STINK is active and offered a few thoughts and Sart hasn't. That is still a tie though, but unless someone else changes their votes as well, that will be the case anyway.

==============

EDIT:

ninja'd by @Araris Valerian ....

so Araris, @Elkanah as we all seem to share some suspicion on Vapor and he is my number one elim suspect at the moment - what do you think about lynching them? Or Araris, what are your thoughts on Sart? I would really like to avoid another tie. Except on Vapor, the evilest of them all

 

Vapor, I think you are being very suspicious. Better get ready to be lynched! Bwahaha

24 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

What? Lynching someone I'm suspicious of? But what about the crusade?

No, fair enough.

Sart is good Vapor is evil

Good job. Lynch me, all!!!

21 minutes ago, Sorana said:

Sart Vapor

Let's see if someone else changes their vote/ places one. Vote Vapor for lunch candidate! And I really hope I'm not completely wrong. Don't worry, I know what I'm doing.

Invite everyone! We'll have a lynch party!

14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, I'll vote on Vapor. She's definitely a top suspect for me, especially after this cycle. She's soooo evil!

Sweet thanks

Hey everyone! Vote on me!!!

[Straw he/him]

The cycle is over!

[Straw he/him]

After your previous efforts had failed, you decided to trying killing people who had a certain metal. Bronze seemed suitable. Who knew what those Seekers were up to? You managed to find and kill two of them. One of them was a Skaa, so your strategy seems to be working!

---

Elkanah has died! They were a Steel Ministry Seeker!
Vapor has died! They were a Skaa Seeker!
Vote Count:
Vapor (4): Araris Valerian, Elkanah, Sorana, Vapor
Araris Valerian (1): STINK
Elkanah (1): A Joe in the Bush
GM Notes:
-The cycle will end on August 23rd, at 1:00 PM EST.
-The following players are in danger of dying from the inactivity filter: @Sart, @xinoehp512.
Player List:

1. @A Joe in the Bush
2. @Araris Valerian
3. Elandera Steel Ministry Thug
4. Elkanah Steel Ministry Seeker
5. Gears Steel Ministry Coinshot
6. Illwei Steel Ministry Lurcher
7. @Lord_Silberfarben
8. Matrim's Dice Steel Ministry Thug
9. @STINK
10. @Sart
11. @Sorana
12. Vapor Skaa Seeker
13. @xinoehp512

[Araris Valerian he/him]

At this point, I’d guess that the elim team is two out of STINK, Silber, and Joe. Possibly one of Sart/Xino is elim, but I doubt both, or there probably wouldn’t have been a kill last cycle. Of those, STINK and Joe both voted last cycle, so I’d rather put pressure on Silber. For reasons I’ve already stated I find STINK to be somewhat suspicious, but I’d like to hear his thoughts on the current game state. I haven’t looked at Joe too much, so I need to go back and read his stuff.

Edit: Between Sart and Xino, Xino’s vote D1 is more suspicious in terms of timing. Similarly, STINK’s vote D1 is more suspicious timing-wise than Joe’s, although his willingness to follow up on Gears the next cycle makes me lean a bit toward honestly wanting Gears dead rather than wanting to save Vapor.

Edited August 22, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[Coffeecat she/her]

ok...

i will analyse this cycle.

vapor died, yay!

Ekanah died, ney

 

would you all be  willing to not post, and die to innactivity? i am a vill so if everyone else dies vill wins!

 

not possible but well.

On 22/08/2020 at 1:10 PM, Araris Valerian said:

that the elim team is two out of STINK, Silber, and Joe.

On 22/08/2020 at 1:10 PM, Araris Valerian said:

Of those, STINK and Joe both voted last cycle,

to my logic (and if we took everything in your post as truth) that would mean that Stink and Joe are elims, two elims out of stink, silber and joe, stink and joe voted. so why am i the elim? it is benefitial for the elims to control the lynch, if i had been elim i would have voted with my other elims to try and save vapor.

 

of course you could be wrong or lying.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

17 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

ok...

i will analyse this cycle.

vapor died, yay!

Ekanah died, ney

 

would you all be  willing to not post, and die to innactivity? i am a vill so if everyone else dies vill wins!

 

not possible but well.

to my logic (and if we took everything in your post as truth) that would mean that Stink and Joe are elims, two elims out of stink, silber and joe, stink and joe voted. so why am i the elim? it is benefitial for the elims to control the lynch, if i had been elim i would have voted with my other elims to try and save vapor.

 

of course you could be wrong or lying.

The lynch last cycle was apparently not strongly influenced by the elims. Otherwise the switch onto Vapor wouldn't have happened, or at least not so easily. You also haven't really contributed much to the game, while STINK and Joe both extended themselves somewhat during the first two lynches. I suppose one possibility is that both Sart and Xino are the last elims, and you, STINK, and Joe are all innocent. But there's no point in wasting a lynch this cycle on a hope like that.

[Coffeecat she/her]

you will be wasting a lynch on me, although you might not believe that, and i completely understand that.

[Sart he/him]

I got a bit burnt out from playing so many games that I checked out of this one. Even worse, my read on the Day 1 vote was completely off. Still, dying to the inactivity filter is no way to end a game. I'm going to make a suspicion list, from most to least trusted.

1. Sorana: A new player who made the right call on Vapor. They are definitely Village.
2. Araris: This is obvious. Annoying that he tied the lynch Day 1, but he was trying to lynch an Elim, so he's absolved.
3. Silberfarben: They have a policy of not voting, which drives me crazy. However, that's their typical Village play style, so I trust them some.
4. Sart: Hi, it's me. I haven't been the most active, and I tunneled on Gears. Whoops.
5. Xinoehp: Another player who is going inactive. Thought he was breaking the tie by voting for Gears, but miscounted a vote.
6. A Joe in the Bush: Voted early on in the cycle for Gears. Some of his tone seems off though, and I don't know what to make of it.
7. STINK: Broke the tie for Vapor by voting on Gears. His argument seems fairly play style based.

Okay, so I'm voting for STINK. I think the bottom 3, Xinoehp, STINK, and Joe are the most likely to be Elims. It's probably some combination of those 3. I also don't think Xino and STINK are on the same team. The miscount from Xino shouldn't have happened if STINK was talking in a doc. STINK is my worst read at the moment, but I can't shake my suspicion of Joe.

[+Sorana she/her]

Okay, I don't have the time for a longer analysis today, so here is what I have in mind at the moment.

At first - I am really glad Vapor was an elim. That's somewhat a relief and it also cleared Araris for me. The paranoid part of my brain tells me, that it could all be a ploy and Vapor was bussed, but I'm going to ignore that for the moment. It doesn't quite fit Araris other behaviour and reads, so: Araris = village until I decide otherwise or have the time to go back and reread all of their posts. Additionally the fact alone that Vapor tried to move the lynch to Araris last cycle, will have to be enough for now.

I'm glad Sart posted again, and his reads align somewhat with mine, which can be a good or a bad sign. Anyway. At the moment I think it's most likely that one of STINK or Joe are an elim. I still have no idea regarding Xino or Silber, and the few posts Silber left this cycle didn't really help. Pure self defense without a lot of information for me to use. It's a little interesting that he started posting more now, the moment there is more pressure on him, if he really wanted to contribute as a villager, he had a lot of chances to do so, so maybe he is an elim trying to hide behind the low activity. But again, I'm not sure, nor do I know his usual village playstyle.

I feel as if I should go and reread both Joe's and STINK's posts last cycle in order to sort myself a little more. From what I remember Joe filed Vapor as village, as well and STINK? I'm not a 100% sure, but he did vote for Elkanah. The way things turned out that doesn't really fit together at all anymore, which makes me wonder if he tried to clear another teammate, while throwing some suspicion elsewhere at the same time.

Before placing my vote I'd be interested to hear how you see the game at the moment @STINK @A Joe in the Bush

[STINK he/him]

I'm just kinda checking in once or twice a day and getting more confused tbh

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Hmm. I don't have much time, so I might as well ensure that there will at least be a lynch this round. Stink.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, the cycle's nearing the end, so I'll vote on STINK to make sure that nobody jumps on Silber to cause a tie. I also feel pretty good about the lynch, given that STINK hasn't really participated much this game. 

[Straw he/him]

The cycle is over!

[Straw he/him]

Delcios Grataste wasn't quite sure what was going on when you killed him. You told him to stand still so you could kill him, and he did. It was kind of weird. You figured that since he was so willing to obey orders, he must be a Skaa. Unfortunately, he was a loyal member of the Steel Ministry, just like you. Also, when you had been going through his possessions to discern his loyalty, another member of your group died. The Skaa were still among you.

---

STINK has died! They were a Steel Ministry Thug!
Sart has died! They were a Steel Ministry Thug!
Vote Count:
STINK (3): Araris Valerian, Sart, xinoehp512
GM Notes:
-The cycle will end on August 25th, at 1:00 PM EST.
-The following players are in danger of dying from the inactivity filter: @A Joe in the Bush.
Player List:

 

1. @A Joe in the Bush
2. @Araris Valerian
3. Elandera Steel Ministry Thug
4. Elkanah Steel Ministry Seeker
5. Gears Steel Ministry Coinshot
6. Illwei Steel Ministry Lurcher
7. @Lord_Silberfarben
8. Matrim's Dice Steel Ministry Thug
9. STINK Steel Ministry Thug
10. Sart Steel Ministry Thug
11. @Sorana
12. Vapor Skaa Seeker
13. @xinoehp512

Edited August 23, 2020 by Straw

[A Joe in the Bush]

Well, at the very least, we can now feel certain that there are exactly 2 elims. Currently living players include Araris and Sorana, who voted to lynch Vapor, the only known elim, and Silber and Xino, who specifically did not.

Ugh, i'm too fuzzy right now to figure out who to votw on. We'll be in Lylo for the rest of thw game though, so thia lynch needs to be on an eliminator. I'll have to assume it's Silber and Xino. Sorana and Araris literally lynched Vapor between them, so if they're the elins GG.

Silberfarben.

[+Sorana she/her]

I agree on the fact, that there are 2 elims left. That leaves us in a tight spot (apart from lylo), if only because of those 5 players left, we never had a cycle where all of them voted so far, but to ensure a lynch the village can control, we need that, or an inactive elim.

============

I tried to make up my mind about the other four left.

Xino:
He voted for Gears in C1 to ensure a lynch, but claimed to have miscounted and didn't break a tie.
He voted for Araris in C2 because of the tie Araris caused at the end of the cycle
He voted for STINK in C3, again with the reasoning to ensure a lynch

--> of his three votes, two of them are confirmed villagers, with Araris most likely being a villager as well

Joe:

He voted for Gears (second vote) C1
He suspected Illwei C2
He voted for Gears C2 again, good/ same reasoning as others (single target and all that)

C3:

Quote

Xino, the last person to vote on Gears, is currently voting on Araris, the last person to vote on Vapor. That could imply that the Elim team includes Vapor, Stink, and Xino, but that theory is hurt by Illwei also breaking a tie. I also don't think that Stink or Xino are elims, which would imply that Vapor isn't, as otherwise, they weren't helped by anyone on their team.

Quote

So that leaves Araris, Elknah, or Sart as my suspects from this very shoddy, gut based analysis.

 

Of these three suspects both Elkanah and Sart are confirmed villagers, again with Araris being a very good candidate for a villager.

--> I have to admit this analysis, as well as the fact that it wasn't followed by any kind of correction makes me very suspicious. Yes, being wrong is part of the game, but that sounds a little to me, as if he tried to divert attention from both Xino and Vapor, by throwing in STINK's name as well to offer some truth.

Araris:
voted Vapor C1, tied the lynch, claiming to prefer Vapor over Gears, trusted Elkanah to break the tie
voted Elkanah C2 for not retracting and for voting with retracting in mind
voted first Elkanah, then Vapor C3 (together with me and Elkanah)
voted first Silber, then STINK C4 (to ensure a lynch)

-->overall: good reasoning, voted for an elim, offers his opinion, stresses the neccessity of team work and collaboration; a villager, despite some uneasy feeling in my gut // if you're elim, well played and GG!

Silber:
hasn't voted a single time
claimed vanilla villager in thread
didn't offer a lot of opinions as well
has been voted on several times, both by Elkanah and Araris

 

Taking a look at the C1 votes in general:

Gears: Sart, Joe, Vapor, STINK, Illwei, Xino
Vapor: Matrim, Elandera, Gears, Sorana, Elkanah, Araris

The first time the tie was broken in favor of Vapor, was by Joe, then by STINK and Illwei, with Xino adding his vote afterwards as well. Those that voted on Vapor are all confirmed villagers, apart from Araris (not counting myself).
Of those voting on Gears, only Joe and Xino don't have their alignment confirmed at the moment. That means for me, that one of Joe or Xino has to be one of the elims, maybe both.

 

TLDR:

Xino or Joe are elim, with Silber a possibility. The fact that Joe votes on him clears them slightly, but it could be a way to distance himself. I'd prefer a Xino or Joe lynch over a Silber one, as I'm more sure about them, than about Silber. I am willing to change my vote, depending on what other votes we end up this cycle, or what other arguments show up.

Edited August 25, 2020 by Sorana
changed the color of Vapor's name to orange in order to avoid any more confusion - sorry

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Sorana, nice analysis. Looking the D1 votes, it seems kind of risky for the elims to have all 3 of their players vote on Gears. Of Joe and Xino, based on the votes, Xino is more suspicious, since his vote came after Vapor was a serious candidate for the lynch.

I think Joe's vote means we should lynch Xino. While we don't know which of Joe/Silber is an elim, we can probably say that they are on different teams, accounting for 1 elim and 1 villager. Thus Xino, the remaining player, should be elim.

@Lord_Silberfarben, if you don't vote this cycle, the elims can tie any lynch, which makes them win. Please vote for someone (unless you are elim, in which case please don't ). I have gone back and forth about Silber, but I guess we can see how he votes this cycle and go from there.

[Coffeecat she/her]

i really dont know what to do

right now, i am not an elim

 

so...

no idea. xino because anything else would just make the tie bigger

Edited August 25, 2020 by Lord_Silberfarben
i just realized sorana voted xino too, for a second i thought they had voted vapor, which makes 1-1-1

[+Sorana she/her]

15 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Looking the D1 votes, it seems kind of risky for the elims to have all 3 of their players vote on Gears.

Yes, it is risky. If they didn't, it leaves Silber and you as the other two options. Crossing you out of the equation, it leaves Silber an elim. But then, the fact alone that it's risky makes it also possible that they did that, because nobody would think that they actually did it. And then we are in the land of speculation and paranoia.

15 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

While we don't know which of Joe/Silber is an elim, we can probably say that they are on different teams, accounting for 1 elim and 1 villager. Thus Xino, the remaining player, should be elim.

Not counting you and me, there are three candidates left, so two of them have to be the elims, unless we only have two elims overall, in that case it's different. I'm not quite sure about Joe/ Silber being on different teams, despite Joe's vote on Silber. It could be an attempt to gain some trust, especially since we have to lynch an elim every cycle or we'll loose.

In the end, I think we have two elims left and three most likely candidates. It comes down to a ~66% chance of hitting one, even if we didn't think at all and simply threw some dice. Although we can diminuish that number by thinking too much and seeing shadows and falling into traps.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Well i still think Silberfarben is a more likely candiadate for elim-hood then Xino. I don't think they're both elims though, so one of you are lying really well. Maybe both? I really hope it's not both of you.