Mid-Range Game 44: Obligations

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Gears said:

Could have been an excuse, could have been genuine error. I'm leaning towards genuine error, but I will admit that we don't really have much to go off of.

I'm assuming that Elkanah was being honest about not wanting a tie. I find it suspicious someone would vote with the intention of retracting their vote if it became relevant, which is how I interpret what Elkanah said.

[Sart he/him]

Hmm... I'm trying to figure out if this was a village on village scenario, or if this was an elim team saving a teammate. I still think the best course of action is to lynch Gears. The vote on Vapor was flimsy at best, and seemed designed solely to get Gears off the hook. If we take the assumption that Gears is evil, we have a much narrower suspect list. If we take the approach that Gears is innocent, I lean towards a Village on Village lynch. That still gives us some suspects, but it divides our attention. All the votes right now are scattered all over creation. By throwing suspicion on everyone, the elims can blend in, and form bandwagons of their choosing. I think we need to do an information lynch here.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Iilwei, elkanah, and araris have votes on them. Vapor and gears don't. I fond it sightly interested that none of us want to pursue either of those lynchs anymore. I can't tell of that'a because everyone thinks they're both village (i'm in that camp), or if people think it's too muddled to get any more info out of now. (I disagree)

I don't know who i'll vote for. I'm not really feeling any of the 5. All 3 of today's votes had fairly good reasoning, but also faily village explanations. Illwei is probably the most suspicious of the three, so i'll toss my vote there if another reread later tonight doesn't yield better suspicions.

EDIT: Lol, ninja'd by Sart.

Edited August 17, 2020 by A Joe in the Bush

[Coffeecat she/her]

7 hours ago, Gears said:

Silber: Exists

now I am not sure I exist.

the basis of confidence on my own existence was that everyone else overlooked it. now that someone has pointed out I exist, I doubt it, since everyone but me is always wrong.

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

now I am not sure I exist.

the basis of confidence on my own existence was that everyone else overlooked it. now that someone has pointed out I exist, I doubt it, since everyone but me is always wrong.

Well.

Adding to discussion would help.

[Elkanah he/him]

8 hours ago, Gears said:

Could have been an excuse, could have been genuine error. I'm leaning towards genuine error, but I will admit that we don't really have much to go off of.

Yeah, it could have been. It was really. I was excusing my genuine error. 

8 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm going to vote on Elkanah. You voted on Vapor (bringing the vote closer to a tie), but then said you would probably retract if the vote became a tie (which would require either an extra vote on Vapor or a retraction from Gears). So you can't really have wanted to lynch Vapor, since anyone bringing Vapor closer to getting lynched would have led to you retracting.

6 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm assuming that Elkanah was being honest about not wanting a tie. I find it suspicious someone would vote with the intention of retracting their vote if it became relevant, which is how I interpret what Elkanah said.

You interpret correctly. I'd have preferred a lynch on Vapor, but I also preferred a lynch over no lynch. If it became very relevant we were lynching Vapor. If it wasn't I could just retract to ensure a lynch... which would have worked great if I'd opened the game fifteen minutes earlier.

I want to join the 'Araris is sus because he tied the vote,' but why would the elims want a tied vote? I guess that would make sense if it's an Araris- Gears team, but even then, that was an on-the-nose play that would get both of them lynched.

We could lynch one of them to get info on the other, but I'll wait to commit to that for a bit.

[+Sorana she/her]

12 hours ago, Gears said:

Sorana voted Vapor with no reasoning [other than mentioning that they seemed slightly more suspicious than Gears]

Actually I tried to explain my reasoning, sorry if that wasn't clear. I disliked the way they jumped on the Gears train as the third person, without giving much reasoning himself. That seemed to me, as if they tried to participate, throw a vote wildly in the room, based on what other people said, and with no thoughts of their own. That was it basically. It was C1 without much to go off and I knew I wouldn't be able to be back later on to take a look at the way the discussion went, so I had to work with what was there.

(I can see now, that my worrying about creating a tie was far too early, there definitely were enough people awake in time to do something with it, so I'll remember that for later on.)

========

Regarding this cycle. I'm inclined to believe Elkanah that he mixed up the time zones, because that can happen easily (although please note that I have no idea which time zone they live in and how hard it might be for them to calculate when rollover would be). But they posted shortly after the thread went up, so an hour off is possible I think. I'll keep an eye on them for now.

3 hours ago, Elkanah said:

I want to join the 'Araris is sus because he tied the vote,' but why would the elims want a tied vote? I guess that would make sense if it's an Araris- Gears team, but even then, that was an on-the-nose play that would get both of them lynched.

The first question that comes to my mind is 'why not'? By lynching Elandera we lost someone I filed as rather active and very perceptive. The two candidates that were up for the lynch were both rather 'random'. With a lynch we would now have a lot more information to go off, a starting point to say so. But as it is, we are still standing in the dark without being any the wiser. Given the vagueness of reasons on both candidates, actually the elims can profit a lot from the tie, at least if you ask me. I know that the goal is to get rid of the villagers, don't get me wrong, but a confused village can make it a lot easier to hide in and to gain trust.

I'm not entirely sure about Araris, even though he was the one who tied the vote in the end, as that lynch was pretty close to a tie most of the time. I'm leaning towards a village-village situation to be honest, although we would need to lynch at least one of them to gain a little more information. Right now, with Vapor not posting and Gears contributing a lot, we would gain a lot more insight if lynched Gears (but so far they have given me no real reason to mistrust them and contribute a lot, so I'm not sure if that would be wise.)

But then, I am not really convinced of the other candidates that are up for the lynch. Illwei's explanation is a weak one, but again it was C1 and it's pretty hard to make a good, informed decision. I would have prefered to see it earlier though along with their vote. Although the fact that they were suspicious of Elandera isn't entirely in their favor. I'll take a look at their posts again, probably reread whole C1 again, see if I can come up with something more.

 

[STINK he/him]

18 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Gears had explicitly mentioned doing this exact thing in a previous game.

And that makes them less suspicious? It ain't like its a NAI 'quirk' that's like yeah I write my posts with almost no grammar or something like that. The guy claims elim. Pretty AI. Gears

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, STINK said:

And that makes them less suspicious? It ain't like its a NAI 'quirk' that's like yeah I write my posts with almost no grammar or something like that. The guy claims elim. Pretty AI. Gears

I dunno. I think it’s NAI to do something that you said you were going to do in a previous game. 

6 hours ago, Sorana said:

By lynching Elandera we lost someone I filed as rather active and very perceptive.

Elandera was (presumably) killed by the elims. We have combined Day/Night turns, so when a lynch goes through we should get at least 2 deaths.

[Mat he/him]

Geez, I don't want to see Gears lynched. I also don't want a tie- so instead of switching my vote, I'll tag the people who haven't to see if we can do something about the lack of votes in the last little bit. Sorry I lost track of time, otherwise this would've been posted an hour ago...

@Gears @Lord_Silberfarben @Vapor @Elkanah @Illwei @Sorana @A Joe in the Bush, vote as you may. But you probably should.

Edit: Sorry to Straw in advance for the probable late votes...

Edited August 18, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Vapor she/her]

Oh, yeah. I forgot to vote. I've got 10 minutes left and I'm not sure who to vote.

[Mat he/him]

Looks like Gears is dead. Hmm.

Edit: @Straw

Edited August 18, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Vapor she/her]

Gears

I don't trust Gears, and he's going to die anyway.

[Gears]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Looks like Gears is dead. Hmm.

Edit: @Straw

Is there not another day left in the cycle? If there isn't, then well, sorry for posting. 

[Vapor she/her]

Oh, really? My bad.

[Straw he/him]

Yeah, cycles are 48 hours, so the cycle ends around one day from now.

[Mat he/him]

xD oh yeah. I went on QF mode for a second there. Sorry about that. Feel free not to vote immediately...

[Vapor she/her]

oops

[---]

I was about to say....

28 minutes ago, Vapor said:

Gears

I don't trust Gears, and he's going to die anyway.

So, I'm going to vote on Vapor for right now, I think.  I know that one post isn't anything to go on, when Vapor does this kind of thing a lot, but I don't think that Voting on someone because they're going to die is a good reason. 

I still need to actually look through this game- I was taking time to try and clear my mind between games because I 100% forgot what my suspicions were after going back to the LG after D1.

Edited August 18, 2020 by Illwei
Posted to early

[Mat he/him]

Eh, what the heck. Reads List!

• Gears- I firmly stand by my belief that his elim claim was NAI, and am therefore opposed to lynching him for it. That being said, I prefer a lynch over no lynch and if Gears is the one to go, at least we'd get info. Mild village
• Xino- Not much here, one of the Gears lynch supporters C1, then seemingly forgot about him to vote Araris for causing a tie. This could be useful later, depending on the flips of Araris/Gears. Though since I disagree with the Gears lynch and the reasoning for the Araris vote, Slight elim. Largely gut.
• Silber- Never anything here :P. I've given up on tagging him to join the discussion, and he's an always fated Null
• Vapor- Surprisingly, I am leaning more village on Vapor than before. She voted Gears right as she thought the cycle was ending, which wouldn't have been necessary had she been an elim and the cycle actually was ending for that mislynch, and it only would've served to cast suspicion on her. If Gears is village, that vote makes more sense for village!Vapor. If Gears is an elim, that vote makes more sense for village!Vapor. Slight village
• Elkanah- Agreed with Elk on Araris probably not being an elim. Null leaning slight village
• Illwei- My vote is already on Illwei, see earlier reasons where I voted him page 1. I disagree on his reasoning for his Vapor vote. Vapor does do that a lot, but she's only ever been village, so it would fit that nothing's changed. Voting on someone who's going to die isn't a good reason, true, but elim!Vapor wouldn't have done that, as it's far too risky in that situation when Gears would flip village. Mild elim
• Sart- Strong advocate of Gears lynch, with STINK. I'm inclined that both are village, but also that they're reading way too much into his 'claim'. Null
• Sorana- Seems genuine, with replies to others and reasoning. Slight village
• Matrim's Dice- Hmm, I wonder.  Strong village
• Joe- An original anti-Gears, but hasn't revisited that. Could be a villager relaxing, or an elim realizing they've attracted too much suspicion on the Gears train. Null leaning very slight elim
• STINK- Strong advocate of Gears lynch, with Sart. I'm inclined that both are village, but also that they're reading way too much into his 'claim'. Null
• Araris- I agree with Elk that Araris wouldn't have caused the tie as an elim. Mild village

tl;dr:

Village: Gears, Vapor, Elk(slight), Sorana, Matrim, Araris

Null: Silber, Sart, STINK

Elim: Xino(slight), Illwei, Joe(very slight)

Edited August 18, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[A Joe in the Bush]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Joe- An original anti-Gears, but hasn't revisited that. Could be a villager relaxing, or an elim realizing they've attracted too much suspicion on the Gears train. Null leaning very slight elim

Time to revisit it. Gears.

Vote count:

Araris (1): Xino

Illwei (1): Matrim

Elkanah (1): Araris

Gears (4): Sart, Stink, Vapor, Joe

Vapor (1): Illwei

I'm on the fence about whether or not gears could be an elim, but at this point, seeing the wide vote spread, I don't care. We need a much more certain target, rather than another tie. If Gears is an elim, we can look back at the first day with much clearer vision, and find teammates among the players who pushed for Vapor. If he's a villager, we can look for elims among the people who tried to get mpre people to focus on Gears or Vapor to the exclusion of everyone else, and might even be able to clear some of the people who started off with votes elsewhere.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Time to revisit it. Gears.

Ah.

1 minute ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I'm on the fence about whether or not gears could be an elim, but at this point, seeing the wide vote spread, I don't care. We need a much more certain target, rather than another tie. If Gears is an elim, we can look back at the first day with much clearer vision, and find teammates among the players who pushed for Vapor. If he's a villager, we can look for elims among the people who tried to get more people to focus on Gears or Vapor to the exclusion of everyone else, and might even be able to clear some of the people who started off with votes elsewhere.

I find myself agreeing with this. We do need a single target, and his flip would show us a lot. That being said, I still don't plan on changing my vote.

[STINK he/him]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I find myself agreeing with this. We do need a single target, and his flip would show us a lot. That being said, I still don't plan on changing my vote.

Two contradictory statements there tbf

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, STINK said:

Two contradictory statements there tbf

Hmm? I mean I agree with Joe, in that we don't want a tie, but I also don't think Gears is an elim and am not changing my vote to him. He's far ahead and it isn't necessary atm. His flip would give a lot of information- but I'd rather keep him alive.

[Vapor she/her]

46 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I was about to say....

So, I'm going to vote on Vapor for right now, I think.  I know that one post isn't anything to go on, when Vapor does this kind of thing a lot, but I don't think that Voting on someone because they're going to die is a good reason. 

I still need to actually look through this game- I was taking time to try and clear my mind between games because I 100% forgot what my suspicions were after going back to the LG after D1.

Yeah, sorry. I thought the game was going to end and so I voted on him.