Quick Fix 46: Mysteries within Secrets

[|TJ|]

22 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I mean, he could have done a different RP game and only came into Elimination recently. Or just be a avid theory poster.

TBH I almost never look at content count.

And yes, I should have noticed Elbereth’s post above mine, but that was over a week ago and I’ve had a lot on my plate. Signed up for this before I remembered I had some summer school classes. 
 

Liked your RP though! It’s great. Got to love those Roshar name-weirdness.

Thanks! I hope you can prove me wrong as it is Cycle 1 and there's not much to go on. I just found the difference the confidence level between MR43 and this game to be staggering, and think that you're doing it deliberately. 

And we have a 6-player tie:

Kasimir (1) - Kasimir (????)
TJ (1) - Straw
Elkanah (1) - Drake
Straw (1) - Sart
Ashbringer (1) - Elkanah
Lotus (1) - TJ

C'mon people, vote!

[+Lotus]

8 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I just found the difference the confidence level between MR43 and this game to be staggering, and think that you're doing it deliberately. 

Yeah I’ve noticed that actually. I really enjoyed just how story-heavy MR43 was. 
 

Edit: Has anyone else had Pyro PMing them?

Edited July 29, 2020 by Lotus

[Mat]

7 hours ago, Elkanah said:

With the fifty posts available right now, I think Matrim's Dice, Ashbringer, Illwei, and maybe Kasimir are Jeskeri Practitioners. Frozen Mint might be a cultist. Straw is probably not a practitioner and that is good enough for me.

Hmm, similar to TJ, disagree with the majority of these. Kasimir I'm not sure becasue a.) never played with them before and b.) they're playing by RP which is not the easiest to analyze/understand :P. Agree on Straw though. I wasn't sure about Illwei but after reading your reasoning in the spreadsheet it makes a bit of sense.

You seemed to suspect me partly on the basis that I said I was going to vote but never did? In part that's kind of how I play. I've made similar statements in past games and been called out for it. Also, though, there wasn't a whole lot of posts when I said that (I believe only 10 ish?) but I also forgot how fast QF's move...

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

I had already asked this in the sign-ups. In fact, Elbereth's clarification post was just 1 post above yours. I highly doubt you would've missed it. I think you're playing the new player card. Asking questions to seem naive, and playing up your inexperience. You were a lot more confident in MR43. Lotus

Not sure what to make of this. They seem basically how I remember (though I didn't play MR43) so I have a slight disagree on this. 

This being a QF, it's fast :P. So I'll vote now that there's a decent enough number of posts to have a decent analysis on people.

I will vote Frozen Mint. Why? Partly gut read on their posts, partly that they've been an elim the past 2 games and I can't see any major changes in their tone, partly they PM'd me with a question that very easily could've been asked in-thread and wasn't sensitive about anything.

Would like to see more from @Lord_Silberfarben, who I've noticed does this thing a lot where they don't really say anything .

[Straw]

24 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Yeah I’ve noticed that actually. I really enjoyed just how story-heavy MR43 was. 
 

Edit: Has anyone else had Pyro PMing them?

Yes, I wouldn't read very much into it though, given that he's done stuff like it in the past!! I do dislike PM conversation in general, as I feel like there isn't much advantage for villagers to talk in PMs rather than making their thoughts public!!!

Now, time for some reads!!

Ashbringer: Points out Korathi Cultist, seems to be thinking a lot about the JP win condition!!! While I don't like doing this, this post does give me JP vibes!! Slight JP read!!!
Devotary: Assumes 13/5/2/1 distribution!!! Look at this if Devotary does not flip Korathi!!
Elkanah: Effort feels like not!JC? Leaning K!!!
Mint: Weird question? Null read but still a weird question!!!
Kasimir: Votes on Sart initially, due to disagreement! If Sart flips J, take a closer look at Kas!!!
Lotus: I feel like they would have asked this question in a doc if they had one!!! Slight K read!
Matrim: Voted on Mint for acting like an elim!! The problem with this is, we don't want to vote for elims!! JP read for this!!
Sart: Proposes strategy that would probably help JC!! Later claims to be lying, but I don't really buy it!!! Also votes on me for very bad reason? Weird play, but I'm leaning towards a JC read!!
TJ: Odd emphasis on voting out cultists being fine! Says Korathi would know their loss condition! I'm Korathi and I had to go check right now, so I don't find that unbelievable!! I certainly wasn't told in my PM!!! Slight JP read!!
Pyro: Lots of PMs!! Null read!
Bard: Faction difficulty stuff is a bit weird? I don't think it matters much now that we're in the game!!!

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Straw said:

Matrim: Voted on Mint for acting like an elim!! The problem with this is, we don't want to vote for elims!! JP read for this!!

I mean, you said it yourself: The JP isn't a half-village, and more like half-elim. The JP and Cultists are both elim factions.

But yeah... I believe I've mentioned this myself :P. The problem is I have 0 idea how to play this game and where to go off my reads, and if I read someone as 'elim' I'm not sure how to distinguish JP with Cultist. So I just go with who I find the most suspicious and who I find as least likely to be Korathi if I don't have any solid JP reads. Which I don't, because I'm not even sure how to tell someone is a JP at this stage. Which is a bad thing.

And as TJ's mentioned, if we lynch a Cultist it's not a bad thing. They are trying to kill us after all - though we'd rather hit a JP over a Cultist, hitting a Cultist is much preferred over Korathi.

[Haelbarde]

13 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think Ash is saying if a bunch of people suddenly vote on someone who turns out to be the Korathi Cultist, those people will probably include a large number of Practitioners.

If it gets to the point that practioners buss the Korathi Cultist, it will because we're all dead and the only non-Jeskeri left must be the Korathi Cultist. At which point it's a little too late for us.

11 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Don't have access to laptop and haven't read through stuff so I'll just reply to Mint. 

I'd rather not lynch a Cultist at all. Sorry if my original message seems to indicate that. What I meant was we shouldn't be scared to vote just because we might hit a Cultist. 

I'd rather not make a deliberate attempt to lynch a Cultist. But if we did, I'd rather lynch the one with access to Jeskeri doc. The Korathi Cultist(s) is/are a huge asset to us IF they claim to us. Even if they don't claim to us, they are the one thing that would stop the JP from achieving their win-con. As long as we manage to keep our lynch off the Korathi Cultist, it should be impossible for the JP to win. 

Sure, JP could fake-claim as Korathi Cultist, but we'll get to that if someone claims to be one. 

It's definitely better for us if the Korathi Cultist stays alive - I figure that while the cultists want everyone else dead, the practioners will care less about lynching us as opposed to directing the lynch to people they think are cultist.

---

This is the last I'll be on for this cycle, so I should put down a vote. Thinking I'll put it down on Pyro. Went from asking me in PMs if I was a cultist to then claiming that they were a cultist, afterwhich I got a PM from a different player to whom Pyro had apparently said that Pyro had told them they'd claimed Cultist to me, but apparently claimed Korathi to that player. Pyro then decided to backpedal in my PM. I've zero doubt that his claim of cultist is not true, but the interaction feels off to me, and I'd lean more towards them being a practioner stirring up some dust and a korathi trying to find an elim. 

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

This is the last I'll be on for this cycle, so I should put down a vote. Thinking I'll put it down on Pyro. Went from asking me in PMs if I was a cultist to then claiming that they were a cultist, afterwhich I got a PM from a different player to whom Pyro had apparently said that Pyro had told them they'd claimed Cultist to me, but apparently claimed Korathi to that player. Pyro then decided to backpedal in my PM. I've zero doubt that his claim of cultist is not true, but the interaction feels off to me, and I'd lean more towards them being a practioner stirring up some dust and a korathi trying to find an elim. 

Pyro asked me if I were a Cultist in a PM as well, to which I replied something along the lines of 'No, did you ask everybody that?' and got no reply back. So some strange interactions. Anyone else experience something similar as Hael?

[+Lotus]

Yeah, I’m going to put a vote on Pyro

I guess straw said they’ve done stuff like this before but I still want a explanation. It’s weird.

Edited July 29, 2020 by Lotus

[Straw]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Pyro asked me if I were a Cultist in a PM as well, to which I replied something along the lines of 'No, did you ask everybody that?' and got no reply back. So some strange interactions. Anyone else experience something similar as Hael?

I got a PM asking if I was a Cultist, replied with no, and got a short PM in response!!! However, the PM response was super short and didn't really say anything!!!! I didn't get a claim or anything though!!

[|TJ|]

42 minutes ago, Straw said:

TJ: Odd emphasis on voting out cultists being fine! Says Korathi would know their loss condition! I'm Korathi and I had to go check right now, so I don't find that unbelievable!! I certainly wasn't told in my PM!!! Slight JP read!!

Yeah, obviously even I wasn't told of loss condition in my PM. But...do you guys not read rules? Nowhere is it mentioned that loss of majority for us leads to our loss. Why that presumption? It's clearly given JC has to kill everyone, so obviously, we can still win after we lost majority. How is me being clear about how are can avoid loss be a JP indication? Also, the JP's wincon does not align with our losscon. Why would a JP be focusing on the loss condition of village? This doesn't make sense. 

34 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And as TJ's mentioned, if we lynch a Cultist it's not a bad thing. They are trying to kill us after all - though we'd rather hit a JP over a Cultist, hitting a Cultist is much preferred over Korathi.

You...you doubted me for telling the same thing! Now you agree with me? 

And Pyro asked me if I was a Cultist, and I just replied negatively. That was the end of our interaction.  If he did claim a Cultist, then presumably the Jeskeri Inquisition should take care of him. We should not do JP's job for them. Even if he is a true JP, other JPs might find him suspicious for claiming Cultist and vote for him anyway in their doc. And this game indeed is making my brain hurt xD 

Edited July 29, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Ashbringer]

@Elkanah - I will say, I like your spreadsheet but you have my first two posts "focusing on Cultists" and "focusing on JP" respectively, and yet you say they both are indicative of me being a JP?

Maybe? For a little additional context, I'm fresh off reading MR23 (which was another multifaction game, with Alethi (with hidden Sons of Honor), Parshendi (with hidden Voidbringers) and Ghostbloods), where the Parshendi faction was very quickly jammed into a scenario where they couldn't kill and couldn't impact the lynch, and had to be rebalanced in game. I was worried something similar would happen in here, especially with Sart's "plan".

But I still stand by what I said. I doubt the plan will work, as it gives the JP so little ability to play the game and lets the Cultists kill at their leisure.

 

Pyro asked me if I was a Cultist like 10 minutes into the game (I said nope), and I asked if he was doing this to everyone, and he said he was.

(I'll write up another post soon, but I'm getting ninja'd too often so here's what I got for now.)

[Straw]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

Yeah, obviously even I wasn't told of loss condition in my PM. But...do you guys not read rules? Nowhere is it mentioned that loss of majority for us to our loss. Why that presumption? It's clearly given JC has to kill everyone, so obviously, we can still win after we lost majority. How is me being clear about how are can avoid loss be a JP indication? Also, the JP's wincon does not align with our losscon. Why would a JP be focusing on the loss condition of village? This doesn't make sense. 

I did read the rules, but I did want to double check!! I just think that it's not terribly unbelievable for someone to slip up and mess up with that!!

10 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Yeah, I’m going to put a vote on Pyro

I guess straw said they’ve done stuff like this before but I still want a explanation. It’s weird.

I would discourage voting out Pyro today!! Tomorrow is a different story, but I feel like gambits like Pyro did are fairly NAI, and it's better to wait and see what long term thoughts and reads he has!!!

[Mat]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

You...you doubted me for telling the same thing! Now you agree with me?

Did I? I thought I just had an off gut read on the tone- that I mostly dismissed-, not specifically the content. And it's true, just maybe not to the extent you were implying.

3 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Also, the JP's wincon does not align with our losscon.

It... does? If the JP win we automatically lose :P. Am I misunderstanding the statement?

[Kasimir]

[OOC] I'll try to give thoughts later if I have the time. Really crunched rn. Just gonna add that Pyro asked me, I said I was not, and then our conversation ended.

[|TJ|]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It... does? If the JP win we automatically lose :P. Am I misunderstanding the statement?

Yeah xD I meant JP's wincon is to kill all Cultists, which does not pertain to us. Our losscon is complete elimination of our team, which is not JP's aim. Why will they be bothered with our losscon when they cannot contribute towards it (i.e. they cannot kill us at their will)?

[---]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Pyro asked me if I were a Cultist in a PM as well, to which I replied something along the lines of 'No, did you ask everybody that?' and got no reply back. So some strange interactions. Anyone else experience something similar as Hael?

I also got a PM but no response back.

From what I've heard of Pyro (though may be from a biased source) Pyro is just chaotic (whether meaning to or not idk) but to me I think it could be him just trying to get reads off everyone maybe? Though idk I havent played enough to know things yet

[Kasimir]

Found piece of repurposed paper shoved into a half-opened box of rations, and scribbled hurriedly:

Quote

Kaleno & Merryn: why the inferential gap? ---> possible connection? (See: Shao.)

Wo ist Übergang?

Aanalan: Peculiar. Potential connection to Kaleno-Merryn cluster?

Hael-Mancia: Strange emergence near end of inquisition. Who else involved in conversation? Independent verification? Only Hael's word for it. Unclear indicative of what. Sun quick to jump on board.

Mancia. What is plan? Kayana. Uncertain what to make of. If compatible with Jeskeri or Korathi (Hael spoke of this, possibly right), why suspicious? Playing odds?

Shao: Look at connections! Dasehe too.

idosdomiwatchoverus

Edited for formatting because I bjorked it again. Entschuldigung.

Edited July 29, 2020 by Kasimir

[Elkanah]

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

@Elkanah, I disagree with most of your JP reads. Not because of my non-JP reads on them, rather because I do not agree with the reasons for your reads. Almost all your JP reads seem to be based on the reasoning that they are focusing on Cultists. I'd argue that most of the discussion around Cultists (especially those from Matrim and Ashbringer) came as a response to vote in opposition to Sart's no-lynch plan. You could say that they could be JP because they would want a public lynch as well, but the way they opposed it after the warning from Sart makes me think they're not JP. Also, I don't believe a JP would blatantly focus and go after the Cultists in-thread. As I told earlier, the public vote in the only way they can lynch the Korathi Cultists, and I think they'd rather focus their attention there.

I am reserving my judgement, but I will look at those again in that context.

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Also, could you clarify what "He is not. This suggestion feels very Sart" means? xD Row 29; Column K-P in your spreadsheet. 
I'd give Elkanah a moderate Korathi read for the spreadsheet analysis. Feels very genuine. 

I was playing the Pronoun Game. I should have said "Sart is not new. I feel like Sart's plan is entirely within character from previous games I have played with him. He is often lynched for suggesting strategies no one else agrees with on day one." This was all in answer to the question asked in the post.

46 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

@Elkanah - I will say, I like your spreadsheet but you have my first two posts "focusing on Cultists" and "focusing on JP" respectively, and yet you say they both are indicative of me being a JP?

Maybe? For a little additional context, I'm fresh off reading MR23 (which was another multifaction game, with Alethi (with hidden Sons of Honor), Parshendi (with hidden Voidbringers) and Ghostbloods), where the Parshendi faction was very quickly jammed into a scenario where they couldn't kill and couldn't impact the lynch, and had to be rebalanced in game. I was worried something similar would happen in here, especially with Sart's "plan".

But I still stand by what I said. I doubt the plan will work, as it gives the JP so little ability to play the game and lets the Cultists kill at their leisure.

 

Pyro asked me if I was a Cultist like 10 minutes into the game (I said nope), and I asked if he was doing this to everyone, and he said he was.

(I'll write up another post soon, but I'm getting ninja'd too often so here's what I got for now.)

Thank you

Yes, I see. I should have been more clear. The first comment is you were focused on finding the JC and the second was you seemed focused on the JP win con - which is finding the JC. More specifically, you seemed a little put out that the JP might have a hard time winning if we didn't help them - which sounded to me like a request to help the JP. I wasn't sure why we should help the JP as their elimination is our only win condition. 

All that said, I agree that not using our lynch is a poor choice and ultimately unenforceable. People (I think Matrim and Shade) have brought up a few times that the JP would have to hammer to get the Korathi Cultist. I disagree. With the vote minimum at 1, all it would take is one person voting at the end of the cycle to kill their target and we still wouldn't even know if the voter was JP, JC, or just another Korathi with a hunch on who is JP.

Therefore, I disagree Sart's plan shuts the JP out of the game, but I agree that we shouldn't follow it.

 

Edit: Ninja'd by Kas

@Kasimir I absolutely love all the places you keep finding these notes! I enjoy your play style greatly.

Edited July 29, 2020 by Elkanah

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Edit: Ninja'd by Kas

@Kasimir I absolutely love all the places you keep finding these notes! I enjoy your play style greatly.

[OOC] Is this a good time for me to role-claim ninja?  But thanks - I've been trying a more integrated playstyle since QF29 both for reasons of fun/challenge and in order to not get over-involved in games when I can't afford to over-commit/go ham  Glad you're enjoying it!

[Ashbringer]

36 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Yeah xD I meant JP's wincon is to kill all Cultists, which does not pertain to us. Our losscon is complete elimination of our team, which is not JP's aim. Why will they be bothered with our losscon when they cannot contribute towards it (i.e. they cannot kill us at their will)?

For one thing, because the JP's can still vote in here, and possibly strike two birds with one cycle.

I'll probably change this by the end of the cycle, but for now TJ Shade seems to be forgetting too many convenient things for my liking.

11 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I am reserving my judgement, but I will look at those again in that context.

I was playing the Pronoun Game. I should have said "Sart is not new. I feel like Sart's plan is entirely within character from previous games I have played with him. He is often lynched for suggesting strategies no one else agrees with on day one." This was all in answer to the question asked in the post.

Thank you

Yes, I see. I should have been more clear. The first comment is you were focused on finding the JC and the second was you seemed focused on the JP win con - which is finding the JC. More specifically, you seemed a little put out that the JP might have a hard time winning if we didn't help them - which sounded to me like a request to help the JP. I wasn't sure why we should help the JP as their elimination is our only win condition. 

All that said, I agree that not using our lynch is a poor choice and ultimately unenforceable. People (I think Matrim and Shade) have brought up a few times that the JP would have to hammer to get the Korathi Cultist. I disagree. With the vote minimum at 1, all it would take is one person voting at the end of the cycle to kill their target and we still wouldn't even know if the voter was JP, JC, or just another Korathi with a hunch on who is JP.

Therefore, I disagree Sart's plan shuts the JP out of the game, but I agree that we shouldn't follow it.

That makes much more sense. I do think the JP might have a hard time winning if they can't hide in the lynch, but I was mainly concerned about a possible balance issue, in that it will be really hard for the JP to purposefully kill the Korathi Cultist (KC?), since the Korathi voting group has a large incentive to keep them alive.

Also, even with a vote minimum on 1, there will still likely be Korathi around at reset in time to try and counter vote a one-man hammer. I know I'm usually on to monitor the last minute voting we all know and despise. So I agree with the point that it wouldn't net us all the Jeskeri, but it's not as simple as just doing one. Plus last-minute voters often get highly investigated in the next cycle anyway.

And, some RP!

 

Raashe stared at the door.

It was a nice door, all things considered. Big, intimidating, and ornately carved with hundreds of symbols that he couldn't understand. He liked that, even if it made him spin his Selish translator spike in frustration. This rusting planet had way too many languages for his taste.

Maybe he could find that guy who had translated those symbols and-

We're not stabbing another innocent so you can read the letters on a door, AraRaash, the Blessing within him resonated.  

"You never want to stab anyone," he whispered. 

Does that still surprise you? Faleast's voice said. 

"You're the one who's so interested in this place. The Jeskeri. The secrets. And you know you don't believe either the Jeskeri or Korathi. You're too realmatically aware to believe them. So either the thing we seek is not what you think it is, or you won't get it anyway."

I believe in simple truths. Harmony. The Shards. And maybe something more... something beyond what the Shards can reach. But you... what do you believe?

Raashe smiled. "The simple things. Power. Emotion. Life."

"And death."

 

(Straw, if Shao wants to RP about having voices in their head, Raashe will gladly strike a conversation about it.)

[|TJ|]

11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Yeah xD I meant JP's wincon is to kill all Cultists, which does not pertain to us. Our losscon is complete elimination of our team, which is not JP's aim. Why will they be bothered with our losscon when they cannot contribute towards it (i.e. they cannot kill us at their will)?

For one thing, because the JP's can still vote in here, and possibly strike two birds with one cycle.

I'll probably change this by the end of the cycle, but for now TJ Shade seems to be forgetting too many convenient things for my liking.

Bold mine. They cannot kill us at their will! They do not control the lynch. But the context in which it was spoken is - Straw argued that it's not unbelievable that a villager can forget (or not notice) their own loss condition, while simultaneously suspecting me as a JP because I noticed the losscon and told non-Korathi might not notice them hence spoke falsely (i.e. Drake). Is a village not noticing a higher possibility than non-villager assuming the losscon and speaking false? My argument was no. "Seems to be forgetting too many convenient things"? Plural? Please state more. 

[Straw]

3 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Straw argued that it's not unbelievable that a villager can forget (or not notice) their own loss condition, while simultaneously suspecting me as a JP because I noticed the losscon and told non-Korathi might not notice them hence spoke falsely (i.e. Drake).

I don't think that's why I suspected you? I lean Practitioner on you due to your first post saying that it's fine to vote out Cultists, which I think is an odd thing to start with!!! Or am I reading your point incorrectly?

[Frozen Mint]

Quote

I'd rather not lynch a Cultist at all. Sorry if my original message seems to indicate that. What I meant was we shouldn't be scared to vote just because we might hit a Cultist. 

I'd rather not make a deliberate attempt to lynch a Cultist. But if we did, I'd rather lynch the one with access to Jeskeri doc. The Korathi Cultist(s) is/are a huge asset to us IF they claim to us. Even if they don't claim to us, they are the one thing that would stop the JP from achieving their win-con. As long as we manage to keep our lynch off the Korathi Cultist, it should be impossible for the JP to win. 

Sure, JP could fake-claim as Korathi Cultist, but we'll get to that if someone claims to be one.

@TJ Shade Thanks for clarifying. I agree for the most part. I don't want to lynch a Cultist at this point in the game and risk hitting the Korathi Cultist.

I'm wondering if it's in our interest for all the Cultists in the Jeskeri doc to die. That would lead to two possible scenarios: (1) The JP's aren't sure how many Cultists there are, so they might believe that there are more remaining in their doc. So they kill a couple of extra JP's on accident. Good for us. (2) The JP's, at some point, reasonably deduce that they have killed all the Cultists in their doc, forcing their attention onto the main lynch. At that point, this basically becomes much more similar to a standard game. The Practioners' goal will be much more focused, so their analyses and voting trends will provide more direct hints.

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

A Korathi would definitely know their loss condition. We do not lose if we lost the majority. We lose only if we are completely eliminated. Suspicious that you do not know that. 

No, but we could lose control of the vote and the lynch if the Korathi's only weapon.

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Pfft, a temple of Domi? Laughable. Dedan is a blind follower. You can almost say... he Dedan't know what he was doing, hah!

I can't believe I laughed at this.

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I will vote Frozen Mint. Why? Partly gut read on their posts, partly that they've been an elim the past 2 games and I can't see any major changes in their tone, partly they PM'd me with a question that very easily could've been asked in-thread and wasn't sensitive about anything.

I'd like to believe my posts having a similar tone means I've gotten better at SE.  On the whole, I wouldn't want people to distinguish between village!Mint and elim!Mint so easily.

In terms of the PM, it did occur to me that I could just put those comments in thread, but I've been wanting to use PM's more and I'm still trying to figure out how PM's could best be utilized. I only remember one game I played that involved a lot of PMing but it had a very different setup.

 

Right now our top lynch candidates are Pyro and TJ, neither of whom I want to lynch.

55 minutes ago, Illwei said:

From what I've heard of Pyro (though may be from a biased source) Pyro is just chaotic (whether meaning to or not idk) but to me I think it could be him just trying to get reads off everyone maybe? Though idk I havent played enough to know things yet

This is my read as well. I'd rather not lynch Pyro this cycle. I've got a null read on them so far. And someone (forget who, I think it was TJ?) mentioned above that it's best to let the JP's debate on whether or not they should kill Pyro.

TJ's posts make me feel suspicious, but TJ's tone always reads elim to me so I think that's just how he plays.

So I don't want to lynch Pyro or TJ, and I also don't want a tie. So I'm going to vote for someone else and hope the tie breaks before the end of the cycle. I'd also rather not put a single vote on a new lynch candidate because while I like this range better than a train, I think we can get more information from the lynch if it's consolidated between a few players.

Haelbarde's vote on Pyro stood out to me as well, I feel like Pyro's strange PMing is a bit too on the nose for it to indicate them being a Practitioner or a Cultist, so I'm surprised at the vote. But there currently aren't any other votes on Hael and I think I've noticed something more intriguing.

We've had votes on so many people, I'd be surprised if at least one of them wasn't on a Practitioner. Ties are decided randomly so it's in the Practioners' interest to break it. I'm looking at Lotus and Ashbringer for bringing the vote in closer. Ash has also given herself some flexibility by saying that she might change her vote later which can be convenient if you're watching the vote to make sure the tie stays away from specific players.

That's the best D1 reasoning I have. I know I haven't covered many players so I'll do my best to try to post more reads later.

 

@Haelbarde BTW El wants us to bold our votes.

Vote Count

Pyro (2) - Haelbarde, Lotus
TJ (2) - Straw, Ashbringer
Ashbringer (2) - Elkanah, Mint
Kasimir (1) - Kasimir (????)
Elkanah (1) - Drake
Straw (1) - Sart
Lotus (1) - TJ
Frozen Mint (1) - Matrim
Matrim (1) - Straw

[|TJ|]

20 minutes ago, Straw said:

I don't think that's why I suspected you? I lean Practitioner on you due to your first post saying that it's fine to vote out Cultists, which I think is an odd thing to start with!!! Or am I reading your point incorrectly?

I thought I had clarified that that is not what I meant in my reply to Mint? In this post:

14 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I'd rather not lynch a Cultist at all. Sorry if my original message seems to indicate that. What I meant was we shouldn't be scared to vote just because we might hit a Cultist. 

So I thought the remainder of your points here below are why you suspected me:

2 hours ago, Straw said:

TJ: Odd emphasis on voting out cultists being fine! Says Korathi would know their loss condition! I'm Korathi and I had to go check right now, so I don't find that unbelievable!! I certainly wasn't told in my PM!!! Slight JP read!!

.

12 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

I'm wondering if it's in our interest for all the Cultists in the Jeskeri doc to die. That would lead to two possible scenarios: (1) The JP's aren't sure how many Cultists there are, so they might believe that there are more remaining in their doc. So they kill a couple of extra JP's on accident. Good for us. (2) The JP's, at some point, reasonably deduce that they have killed all the Cultists in their doc, forcing their attention onto the main lynch. At that point, this basically becomes much more similar to a standard game. The Practioners' goal will be much more focused, so their analyses and voting trends will provide more direct hints.

Yeah, I was thinking of (1) as well and how that would be a very good scenario for us. 

12 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

Pyro (2) - Haelbarde, Lotus
TJ (2)(1) - Straw, Ashbringer
Ashbringer (2)(3) - Elkanah, Mint, TJ
Kasimir (1) - Kasimir (????)
Elkanah (1) - Drake
Straw (1) - Sart
Lotus (1) - TJ
Frozen Mint (1) - Matrim
Matrim (1) - Straw

I have only one vote on me Mint. Straw changed to Matrim. Strikethrough and bold mine. 

And yeah, I got the feeling that Ashbringer is trying to throw shade on me as well, buffing up suspicion with "Too many convenient things he has forgotten".

Edited July 29, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Gears]

A brief analysis, organised by player and post. [I may have gotten the numbers wrong. My apologies in advance]. [Also, why do people keep posting when I'm trying to make a compendium of posts‽]

Straw:

• 1: Straw makes a good point here about JP behavior. As they know every Jeskeri, they will naturally look for Cultists in that population. However, as the JP know about this, they would make an active effort to disengage this behavior. [Sidenote, the personalities are very interesting and I hope you live long enough for us to see all of them.] NAI
• 5: Mentions how it is difficult to eliminate TMI from reads. Thinks the JP will focus on people in the doc, which I mildly disagree with as utilising the main lynch seems optimal. NAI 
• 17: Sart is most definitely not new. Thinks Sart's reasoning [assuming that a Jeskeri-controlled lynch would cause Korathi death] is flawed because the Jeskeri want to kill amongst themselves. NAI
• 20: Notes that "half-village" is a poor name for the JP. NAI
• 23: Thinks Sart's proposal is NAI. Agrees with Drake about mislynch potential. Votes TJ based on gut, probably based on TJ's strange first post. NAI.
• 46: Notes that Sart didn't provide an explanation of the disagreement. Very confused by Sart. NAI.
• 62: Reads list. Votes on Matrim for voting on an elim suspect. NAI.
• 67: Got a PM from Pyro but no claim. [It's funny how Straw ran LG67 and made post 67] NAI
• 70: Doesn't want to vote out Pyro since they do this a lot. NAI
• 80: Clarifies suspicion. NAI

TJ:

• 2: The emphasis on how lynching a cultist is not bad seems a little strange, though the sentiment is perfectly fine. It just seems like an odd first post to me. Noted, but reserving judgement.
• 49: Doesn't want to lynch a cultist, but lynching a cultist should not disincentivise people from voting. Very mild Korathi read.
• 57: Thinks Lotus's confidence level has dropped. Thinks Drake would know win-con as Korathi. NAI 
• 59: Notes that on D1, there's not much to go off of and the confidence difference is staggering. NAI
• 68: Responds to Straw's mention of loss-con not being in PM by saying that people should read rules. Loss of majority != loss. JP win-con != Korathi loss-con. Matrim suspected TJ for saying lynching cultists isn't bad and now agrees with them. 
• 73: JP win-con is not Korathi loss-con. JP want to kill Cultists, Korathi lose if they all die. 
• 79: Straw's suspicion is weird. Clarifies statement that Ash was confused about. JP do not control the lynch. Asks about other things forgotten.

Matrim: 

• 3: Notes that Jeskeri will probably include Korathi in their suspect list to a: catch the cultist and b: look villagery. Also mentioned that the cultists probably won't kill the JP because they know who the JP are and has a gut elim read of TJ. NAI
• 10: Promotes D1 lynch, argues that not voting helps JP achieve their wincon. NAI
• 14: Reiterates Matrim's point and decides to leave Sart alone because no-lynch is probably a Cultist strategy. Mild not-JP [for leaving a possible cultist alone]
• 18: RP. Agrees with Straw. NAI.
• 36: Clarifies Ash's point. NAI;
• 40: Disagrees with Sart about Straw's point, thinks Sart's tone is odd. Still thinks Sart probably isn't JP.
• 44: KC versus JC could be different for TJ. NAI
• 47: Agrees with Straw. NAI
• 51: Tells Lotus there is not mandatory voting and mourns the loss of the 700th post. NAI
• 61: Disagrees with Elkanah's JP reads. Agrees about Straw. Thinks Lotus is the same as always. Votes Frozen Mint for a lack of playstyle change between elim games and questions that could have been asked in thread. However, we are not trying to lynch elims. We are trying to lynch people who are villagers in a smaller game. It could be a simple mistake, it could be an attempt to lynch a Cultist. Mild JP read
• 63: Has no idea how to play the game. Notes that lynching a cultist is not a bad thing. NAI
• 65: Also received a PM from Pyro. NAI.
• 71: Had gut read on TJ, now doesn't. JP win = Korathi loss. NAI

Lotus: 

• 4: Notes hype for game. NAI
• 7: Asks question. NAI
• 13: RP. NAI
• 15: Asks if Sart is new, which is something that I personally would inspect privately instead of asking the thread. Noted, but reserving judgement.
• 50: Asks if there is mandatory voting. NAI
• 58: Doesn't think content dictates experience. Should have remembered El's post. NAI
• 60: Notices the lower confidence. Pyro PMs? NAI
• 66: Also got a PM from Pyro, votes Pyro. Noted, but reserving judgement.

Sart: 

• 6: Proposes not voting, which I adamantly disagree with. The reasoning behind the JP eliminating themselves seems flawed as well. As the JP need to lynch the KC [Korathi Cultist], this is a cultist, or this is a JP undergoing a major fakeout. Mild+ not-Korathi read, mild Cultist read.
• 38: Retracts prior strategy. Claims that the proposal was to incentivise discussion. Promise to retaliate with votes was a bluff. Disagrees with the point Straw made concerning the Jeskeri redirecting the lynch towards themselves and votes Straw. Stronger not-Korathi read.

Drake: 

• 8: RP. NAI
• 22: Thinks Sart's plan is bad but doesn't think it means JP!Sart. Also thinks that the Sart discussion makes a good excuse for a mislynch and votes Kas. NAI
• 31: Pokes Elkanah. Thinks lynching is better than not lynching because the Jeskeri lynch will be the only way the JP are dying because the Cultists will kill Korathi to compensate. Does not intend to end cycle without a vote. NAI

Kasimir: 

• 9: Votes Sart for the plan. [Sidenote, I like this game analysis in RP thing you're doing] NAI
• 16: Sart is not new. NAI.
• 27: Acknowledges Drake's vote. NAI
• 54: Doesn't really suspect Sart. Votes self. Noted but reserving judgement.
• 72: Busy right now. NAI
• 75: Elkanah+Drake? TJ too? Only Hael's word for Pyro claim. Lotus hopped on really fast. Pyro is being really sus. Straw, Matrim, look at connections. Good point about Lotus, but I can verify Hael's statement. Pyro claimed standard Korathi to me, so I asked Pyro if they claimed to anyone else, and they said they claimed Cultist to Hael. I PMed Hael to confirm.
• 77: Playstyle chat. NAI

Ash: 

• 11: Strongly disagrees with Sart because the JP must kill the KC through the lynch. Ash, your paragraph discussing Jeskeri strategies appears to be cut off. I agree that the two strategies you have laid out seem sub-optimal. NAI
• 26: Doesn't understand what Devotary is saying. NAI
• 32: Still doesn't understand what Devotary is saying. Doesn't understand why the cultists would claim. NAI
• 34: Notes that Cultists must make sure that more Korathi die whilst ensuring that the lynch remains out of JP control. Mentions how KC can be bussed [meant hammer]. NAI
• 37: Clarifies point, meant hammer. NAI
• 39: Doesn't buy the bluff, but thinks Sart is more Korathi, though might be KC, which I disagree with. Noted, but reserving judgement.
• 69: Doesn't think plan will work. Asks Elkanah about spreadsheet. NAI
• 78: TJ forgot about JP using lynch to kill Cultists. Votes TJ for convenient amnesia, which I haven't seen, Noted, but reserving judgement.

Elbereth: 

• 12: The almighty Game Master deigns to answer a question. All hail!

Gears: 

• 19: Analysis the village/half-village/elim mechanic. Comments on how the no-lynch strategy is flawed. NAI
• 21: Agrees that "half-village is a poor name for the JP and decides to call them the JP. NAI
• 35: Questions use of word "bus". NAI.

Devotary: 

• 24: Notes that the Practitioners need to lynch the KC eventually and the Cultists can claim to the JP. I don't particularly understand that point. NAI.
• 28: Notes that voting doesn't particularly provide an advantage. NAI
• 33: Calculations for balanced game could be flawed. Cultists want more JP alive until the Korathi are dead. NAI

Pyro:

• 25: Asks if Sart is going to follow through on their statement concerning voting on people who vote for them. NAI
• 29: RP referencing the great number of PM's they've sent. NAI
• 43: Functionally no difference between lynching KC and standard cultist for Korathi. NAI
• PMs: Pyro claimed standard Korathi to me and said that they were going to claim cultist to some people. However, I do not think this behavior is AI.

Haelbarde:

• 30: Exists, shall return. NAI
• 56: Thinks Sart could be JP or Cultist. NAI
• 64: If practitioners buss KC, Korathi are all dead. Better if KC stays alive. Votes Pyro for claiming cultist and being weird. NAI.

Frozen Mint: 

• 41: Thinks Cultists will target Korathi. Doesn't think Sart is bluffing. Intends to vote. NAI.
• 42: Asks TJ what they think about lynching the KC versus a Jeskeri Cultist. As this is irrelevant to the Korathi, mild Jeskeri read.
• 45: Disagrees with Pyro but reserving thoughts until TJ responds. Still mild Jeskeri read.
• 81: Contemplates scenario in which all Jeskeri Cultists die, leaving only the KC. While the logic seems reasonable, the implication of wanting cultists to die is a Jeskeri sentiment. Votes Ash. Mild Jeskeri read.

Illwei: 

• 48: Speculates on Jeskeri strategy. I don't see how that is relevant. Mild Jeskeri read.
• 74: Got PM from Pyro.

Elkanah: 

• 52: Makes a lovely spreadsheet. I disagree with most of the JP reads, including Matrim [Future Gears here: I change my mind after Matrim votes Frozen Mint], Ash, and Kas. Votes Ash. Leaning Korathi for the effort. 
• 76: Will examine reads. Clarifies read on Ash. No-lynching bad. Doesn't think that Sart's plan would shut down the JP but still thinks it's bad. NAI

Young Bard: 

• 53: On mobile, thinks Korathi might be at a disadvantage, Sart is acting weird but doesn't think it's AI. NAI.

Lord_Silberfarben: 

• 55: Exists. NAI

Reads: 

• TJ: Mild Korathi for saying that lynching a cultist is not intrinsically bad.
• Matrim: Mild not-JP for ignoring a potential cultist
• Sart: Not-Korathi for proposal and subsequent retraction.
• Frozen Mint: Mild Jeskeri for talking about things irrelevant to Korathi
• Illwei: Mild Jeskeri for speculating on Jeskeri strategy.
• Elkanah: Mild Korathi for the spreadsheet.
• Special mention for Ashbringer, who got many "Noted, but reserving judgement". 

Out of everyone with a vote on them, I would be willing to lynch Ashbringer or Frozen Mint.