Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Straw he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I’ll guarantee that I flip village! I’ll bet 10 actual dollars that I do.

Please do not use out of game things like this.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Ventyl said:

I’ll guarantee that I flip village! I’ll bet 10 actual dollars that I do.

I think you are in a weird place of simultaneously taking this game way too seriously (when you are under threat of dying), and also not seriously enough (when you aren't). But I will say that the latter is almost entirely responsible for the former, so you might want to reconsider your playstyle in the future. It is possible to engage in behavior that objectively helps the elims while you are a villager, but I don't think it causes anyone else in the game to have more fun. There's a lot of grey area between playing optimally and helping the elims, and I think we as a community try to be open to less conventional playstyles, but (at least some of us) are also rather competitive (myself very much included). It might be worth your while to try and read some past games to try and get a feel for this balance. I think Alvron and STINK have done an excellent job of finding the balance here, and more recently Wilson and Orlok have been exploring it . 

3 minutes ago, Gears said:

Then we learn that my suspicions were wrong and I give you permission to act upon your suspicions.

I'm not sure that this is a helpful attitude to have. We could act on different suspicions now, and avoid what I consider to be a double mislynch. I think people often have the mindset that lynching X will give us lots of information, but really, it's generally more accurate to say that X flipping elim will give us said information. 

[Mat he/him]

As it turns out vacations include things like spontaneous swimming so I’ll be gone again. Promise I’ll read the thread and comment a long post within 6 hours

[Gears]

7 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm not sure that this is a helpful attitude to have. We could act on different suspicions now, and avoid what I consider to be a double mislynch. I think people often have the mindset that lynching X will give us lots of information, but really, it's generally more accurate to say that X flipping elim will give us said information. 

Assume Ventyl is a mislynch. Ashbringer, TJ and I are implicated as fervent defenders of TJ. Assume TJ is also a mislynch. Ashbringer and I are implicated further. Assume your suspicions are mislynches. You are implicated as a fervent defender of this course of action. Knowledge concerning 3 people and near certainty concerning 2 people or knowledge concerning 1 person. 

[Mat he/him]

I will send a long analysis post. But I'll say right now that my elim team prediction is:

Striker, Gears, Ashbringer, Elbereth, and someone else. But like seriously, Ventyl literally

1. Said- no, nearly asked- to be alignment scanned
2. Roleclaimed as a Radiant, something I severely doubt an elimination would do
3. Made some good points- such as a lot of people who said Ventyl was their best village suspect now pushing extremely hard for his lynch.

TJ also I have no idea why they are a suspect. C'mon. Where's Orlok... I need backup  

Gears

[Gears]

My alignment has no bearing on TJ's and Ventyl's. The converse is completely false because I have adamantly defended TJ and vilified Ventyl. As such, Ventyl and TJ should be lynched before myself. If Ventyl is a villager, we will lynch TJ. If TJ is a villager, we will lynch me. I don't know what you're planning to do if I flip village.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I think I've said all that I can, at least to you, on the matter of this lynch. I understand that for us Americans, it is a holiday, but I'd greatly appreciate input from players that have posted little to nothing recently. I'd ping them, except Straw already pinged everyone in the writeup.

I've also noticed that I'm starting to feel a bit frustrated with the thread this cycle, and some other people might be feeling the same. I'm going to step back for a while, and would suggest anyone feeling the same do likewise. It's definitely not worth getting worked up over a minor disagreement.

[Elbereth she/her]

I had a bad day yesterday and couldn't get myself to check the Shard again. I'm spending the day with my grandparents, but will probably be back with a properly long post this evening.

I've got 10 posts in a multiquote, but don't have the time nor energy to respond to them properly right now. Also, y'all, I leave for a day and suddenly I feel like everyone's gone insane, what the heck.  

I know I've got some suspicion on me; if anyone has specific questions for me I'll respond to them, but the main things seem to be either gut or me defending Striker (and Ventyl?). Which I did, and I think I've explained adequately why. 

@TJ Shade, I was focusing on you but questioning myself during the night turn because I was very certain you were evil at the end of D1, and recalibrating my read of you given Striker's flip took time. 

@Orlok Tsubodai, when exactly has me ignoring you been a tell? The only times I've been evil and you weren't were three LGs before we knew each other well (LG20, LG23, and LG28) and LG43, in which you caught me D1 due to PM interactions. Regardless, my read on you is that I think you're evil but don't especially want to pursue that lynch right now for a few reasons (you're a valuable player, I'm uncertain in my read and would like to see more, I'm enjoying you as mad watcher, you'd be a pain to lynch, and I don't really like the basis for my suspicions). 

@ everyone asking for my reads, I don't know! I think Gears and Ventyl are village still; I think e/e TJ/Ventyl is not a thing and I'm leaning v/v there but still uncertain on TJ (not willing to vote for him, though). Slightly unsure of Araris right now. Feeling a particular need to go through Ash's posts again. 

That's about all I've got, though. I promise I'll come back with actual reads later.

Gears, I think you're severely underestimating the amount of information that could be garnered from your flip / from flips in general. I might lay that out more clearly later if I have the time. 

Oh, and I really don't think Ventyl not knowing he didn't use up charges is a lie. If I had to say it's AI I'd say it makes me lean village on him, but that's the sort of thing I'd rather not consider at all (because of how closely it infringes on GM stuff, I guess? I know I as a GM wouldn't want people to be reading into it). So. There's that. 

That's all from me for a while. Happy Independence Day, and all that!

[Gears]

11 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Gears, I think you're severely underestimating the amount of information that could be garnered from your flip / from flips in general. I might lay that out more clearly later if I have the time. 

If you think lynching me would be beneficial, you have my consent to do so. However, I still think that the Ventyl lynch is more beneficial.

[Elbereth she/her]

No, I don’t think lynching you would be beneficial, because I think you’re village. I also think Ventyl is village. I think I personally would get more information from your flip (because the stuff around Ventyl is both confused enough to be difficult to interpret, and unless he ends up evil I’ll be interpreting stuff about him in exactly the same way I do now), but neither of you are good candidates in my mind. (Ventyl’s flip might be more useful to the thread as a whole, though?) 

Who is a good candidate? Ask me in six hours and I might have an answer.  

[Mat he/him]

As promised, here's my analysis-heavy post, of everyone semi-relevant to the lynch:

Ventyl: I've already sort of talked about Ventyl in an above post. You can go read that if you want. Village Read.

TJ Shade: This is where things are kind of weird, because I 100% believe both Ventyl and TJ are village. And they want to kill each other. TJ has stated multiple analysis posts, and long ones too, something i don't think an elimination would be as inclined to do. His reasoning why he is village is pretty darn sound to me, and I don't really understand the suspicions on him. Granted, the suspicions on him are from my elim list, so that might be why. Village Read.

Gears: I reeeeally don't like how much they've been changing everything. C1 they were among the group who said they didn't want to lynch Ventyl. I don't see how anything changed to make his mind flip that much. I also don't like their forceful tone, shown here (Bold mine):

2 hours ago, Gears said:

We are not lynching El because we can learn much more from a Ventyl lynch. If Ventyl flips elim, TJ is more cleared. If Ventyl flips village, we're lynching TJ. It also has ramifications for my alignment as well as Ash's. El's lynch reveals nothing other than El's alignment.

This seems like an attempt to get two mislynches in a row, and I don't want to have it. As for the last point, that is in no way true. Elbereth has stated reads, done numerous multiquotes, and a whole bunch of other things that would make her a better infolynch, if that's what we want, then a lot of other people. They also said this:

9 minutes ago, Gears said:

If you think lynching me would be beneficial, you have my consent to do so. However, I still think that the Ventyl lynch is more beneficial.

The Ventyl lynch probably would be beneficial. I believe yours has a higher chance of hitting an elim. If, however, Ventyl is lynched, i would definitely not go for TJ next. Gears is my strongest Eliminator Read.

Elbereth: I would be 100% fine with an El lynch this cycle. While i don't have any concrete evidence against them (besides their push on me?) they have been backing up everyone else I suspect. Mild Eliminator Read.

Ashbringer: Like El and Gears, I would be fine with an Ash lynch. Their insistence to know Ventyl's squiree is very strange, quoted here:

Quote

Here’s what I propose. Squire tonight, but don’t tell anyone who you’re squiring. The next day, tell us whether the squiring went through, and have the squire (who you can PM with) agree that your squiring succeeded. I think this would work to help clear you, and/or pull a squiring away from the Elims. It would be acting in the Village’s interest.

that would not be acting in the Village's interest. It would be in the eliminator's interest because it would alert them who gained Radiant powers. Squiree, please do not claim. That should be obvious. Ash is another Eliminator Read.

I'll reply again later tonight. @Orlok Tsubodai come help me 

 

Edit: Forgot to mention my elim team suspects.

Ash, El, Gears and an inactive Windrunner, one of Xino or Fifth

Edited July 4, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Straw does not inform you of how much stormlight you have, so it is possible for Ventyl to have falsely assumed making a squire took up both charges of stormlight. Ventyl seemed confused when I brought up the stormlight/squire thing though, as if the possibility of squiring requiring stormlight was novel. If this concern can be cleared up satisfactorily, there's much less reason to kill Ventyl. I see no reason to kill TJ today, or tomorrow if Ventyl dies a villager. Probably not even if Ventyl dies an elim honestly because of how willing they've been to kill each other today. Gears; Gears and Striker had votes on each other when it seemed plausible for those to be fatal. This team would require at least one elim on the push to TJ and quite possibly more than one.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Gears; Gears and Striker had votes on each other when it seemed plausible for those to be fatal. This team would require at least one elim on the push to TJ and quite possibly more than one.

By the vote count Straw gave at the beginning of N1, Gears did not vote.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

By the vote count Straw gave at the beginning of N1, Gears did not vote.

Gears had a vote on Striker until <10 minutes before rollover. The vote was retracted to get a tie, which would be risky for an elim who knows they aren't using vote manip that cycle. It would have been super easy for elim!Gears to 'save'(not actually since TJ cancelled two votes) Striker by voting TJ, or keep the vote without mentioning wanting a tie for village credit.

[Mat he/him]

54 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Gears had a vote on Striker until <10 minutes before rollover. The vote was retracted to get a tie, which would be risky for an elim who knows they aren't using vote manip that cycle. It would have been super easy for elim!Gears to 'save'(not actually since TJ cancelled two votes) Striker by voting TJ, or keep the vote without mentioning wanting a tie for village credit.

Why would it have been risky? Elim!Gears would’ve gone from a teammate being lynched to a 50% of a teammate being lynched. If I recall correctly he retracted before TJ claimed.

Knowing that Striker would flip elim if lynched it would’ve been more risky for elim!Gears to switch to TJ in the last second.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I’ll just say, I wanted the thread to know who Ventyl’s squire was because it would clear Ventyl much better than saying “I squired” with no evidence. It would give us another target for suspicion if either Ventyl or squire flipped Elim, and it creates a IKYK situation for Elim!Ventyl’s squire being either a fellow Elim or a Villager.

But I also wanted it to be the squire’s decision to out themselves, not Ventyl’s and certaintly not mine. I thought I had said that somewhere (perhaps in a different post? I don’t remember), but I might as well say it now. Whether they feel comfortable outing themselves depends on a lot of things, particularly the surge they got and (in my opinion) whether their possible surges are known.

And, now that Ventyl claims an Abrasion user, that possible surge pool shrunk from 10 to a probable set of 3. So I wouldn’t advise a squire claiming at this point, but I stand by that it would help clear Ventyl and possibly his squire as well.

[Gears]

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

And, now that Ventyl claims an Abrasion user, that possible surge pool shrunk from 10 to a probable set of 3. So I wouldn’t advise a squire claiming at this point, but I stand by that it would help clear Ventyl and possibly his squire as well.

Ventyl claimed Edgedancer, so the probable Surge set is just Abrasion and Progression.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

@Straw can we get a vote count?

[Ashbringer he/him]

38 minutes ago, Gears said:

Ventyl claimed Edgedancer, so the probable Surge set is just Abrasion and Progression.

If he did, I missed it, but that’s the most likely set. I would hope he wouldn’t claim Dustbringer...

[Straw he/him]

51 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

@Straw can we get a vote count?

I think it's this:

Ventyl (4): Ashbringer, Gears, The_Truthwatcher, TJ Shade
Gears (3): Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice, Ventyl
Elbereth (1): The Young Pyromancer

[Gears]

34 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

If he did, I missed it, but that’s the most likely set. I would hope he wouldn’t claim Dustbringer...

This turn, bottom of page 1.

[Ashbringer he/him]

*Facepalm* that’s what I get from reading D1 for analysis and not D2 for actually playing the game...

[Mat he/him]

@Ashbringer, I’ll lessen my suspicions on you. But they’re not gone.

[Ashbringer he/him]

This is a bit of hodge-podge analysis 

Elbereth: Was the first person to interact with Striker. Wants Lightweaver to prioritize PMs over protecting. Doesn’t like poke votes (NAI). Thought that Ventyl was at first being too odd to be Elim. Values PM communication, got confused by Striker’s claiming and counterclaiming advice. Tends to be defensive of self. Suspicious of TJ’s vote on me and “uninterested” in a D1 Striker lynch. Had a long post explaining her playstyle when I mentioned it irked me (note: playstyle is pressure and voting on whoever is most suspicious at any point, which I think is fine). Upon Striker flipping Elim, said she was glad and suprised, and read TJ as Elim or at least very confusing. Analysis: I THINK Slight Village, but it’s hard to read an unusual playstyle on my first try. I’d like to see some specific reads.

Matrim: Has had reason to be inactive, but has also done little to contribute. Initially wary of Ventyl’s role hinting/claiming (and for good reason...). Admits he usually reads Ventyl as Elim. Got confused by Striker’s counterclaim scenario, aided by Sart’s explanation. Skeptical of Elim!TJ D1. Eternum explained Striker’s counterclaim theory. Didn’t want to guaruntee lynch Ventyl D2-3 as Gears proposed, but also didn’t like Ventyl’s proposed squiring of Elbereth. Voted Striker to avoid Ventyl/TJ lynch, and decided late D1 to keep his vote there. Upon Striker flipping Elim even more sure of Village!TJ. Analysis: Slight Village, but not a ton.

Araris: First to vote on Ventyl. “I want to kill you, not get you to post.” Doesn’t value Role Analysis, but stresses the importance of recognizing different opinions versus Elim manipulation. Correctly saw Sart as NOT distancing from Striker. Read Radiant!Ventyl as more Village and retracted his vote (gasp!) and placed on Devotary for being overly neutral, then moved to TJ to actually have an impact in the lynch. Upon Striker flipping Elim suspected Gears and Truthwatcher. Analysis: Null/Slight Village, but it seems like Araris being Araris. Depends on how Gears may flip if applicable: I feel a little biased for Araris due to he being my Kandra mentor.

Joe: A deciding vote on Striker, but I’m still a little scared of a bus. Has mostly been quiet and has been poked by Ventyl prior. Doesn’t suspect Gears. Wanted Gears/the Village to give Ventyl a bit of a break. Analysis: Strong Village, but beware bussing. (I’m paranoid, what do you expect) especially if Gears/Ventyl flip Elim.

Joe/Kynedath/Pyro/Devotary/Eternum/Mage/Lahilt/Mint/Orlok/Truthwatcher/a few others: not very many posts to analyze, guys... null reads, but I hope we don’t have so many people only partially active/contributing. (I know some have been more active then others, but still.)

Also, Ventyl, for now. I’m going to step out of this debate until things clear up. I’m a little more suspicious of Gears for advocating TJ AND Ventyl lynches. Other than that I’ll have to see in the morning.

[Lahilt he/him]

Ok I am back,

I am actually seeing a possibility of Ventyl being a (rather hazardous) villager but I would be ok with lynching them for information. (I think ventyls has posted some very Elimy posts that has caught the attention of the heavy analytic players TJ and Gears

TJ Shade I am willing to soft clear as village. Although they could still be Elim. I do not want to lynch them now.

Gears due to their effort mantain a tie, very slight village.

And now my battery  is almost dead, and it is late in the night after a long day, I will go to bed.