Quick Fix 45: To Set an Example

[+Lotus]

Some thoughts:

Mist: Even though must hasn’t been posting that much, I don’t find them that suspicious, maybe because they just haven’t posted a lot to go through. If they were a Elim I wouldn’t be that surprised, but I think a village is much more probable.

 

Mint: I think mint is much more suspicious. They’ve been under suspicion a lot but seem to always manage to draw suspicion to someone else. Could be a defensive villager, of course, though.

 

Striker: My primary reason for not wanting to lynch striker is just how helpful he’s been with me learning how the game works, which I know isn’t a great reason at all, but he has been very active, participating, and I don’t think he is a Elim.

 

My defense for vote-switching last round: I was suspicious of TJ the round before, and so I put my vote down so I had something down, intending to probably change it later. Then, I changed to Ventyl because some people made some good points on why he might be suspicious. Changed it to TJ because I originally thought Mint couldn’t be a Elim. Changed it back when it looked like a Ventyl lynch might have more possibility.

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, here's an updated vote count: 

Frozen Mint (2): Lotus, Vapor, 
Mist (4): TJ Shade, Ashbringer, Striker, Eternum
Fifth Scholar (4): Devotary, Lahilt, Mist, Frozen Mint

It's kind of interesting that as soon as Mist became a valid lynch target, Vapor decides to switch (back?) over to Frozen Mint. It could simply be because Vapor really did like Mist's reasoning for voting on Frozen Mint, but I wonder if they're elims together? It could also be because they're sisters and Vapor is following Mist's lead, who has been playing a bit longer. I'm not sure what to do with this observation right now, but just wanted to get it out there. Also, I'm perfectly fine with how the lynch is set up right now. 

[+Lotus]

Question: if we end up with a tie, will both die, or will we have a re vote, or will it just be random?

[Straw]

Yeah, sorry about the inactivity. I feel strongest about a Striker lynch at the moment, but I'd prefer Mist over Fifth or Frozen Mint. Mist, unless a Striker train comes out of nowhere.

Just now, MysticLotus said:

Question: if we end up with a tie, will both die, or will we have a re vote, or will it just be random?

Random.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Straw

[StrikerEZ]

1 minute ago, Straw said:

Yeah, sorry about the inactivity. I feel strongest about a Striker lynch at the moment, but I'd prefer Mist over Fifth or Frozen Mint. Mist, unless a Striker train comes out of nowhere.

Why do you feel so strongly about lynching me? I remember reading your reasoning for it at the end of C3, but that was after it happened and I was mostly skimming and I don't quite remember it very well.

[+Lotus]

4 minutes ago, Straw said:

Random

Thanks.

[Fifth Scholar]

48 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Why did you trust Striker at the time? I'm not sold on him being evil, but I don't think there's a lot that points to him definitely being village, though that's true for most everyone and hasn't stopped anyone including me from having village reads on people with minimal reasoning.

Lotus had previously voted for Ventyl, so it makes sense to switch back when that lynch seemed viable. Eternum didn't seem to be excited about a Ventyl lynch, but went with it to see what happened, it looks like.

Elim!Fifth starts a bandwagon on Ventyl to save elim!Mint, or sees decaying of support for the Mint lynch and decides to push a third bandwagon to make sure elim!Striker doesn't become the target. If neither Mint nor Striker are evil, you're much more likely to be village as well. In that world, the people who aren't doing any sort of provocation and just going along with existing trains become the main elim suspects.

What were your 1-2-3 options for who to lynch yesterday? I preferred to lynch Striker, Ventyl, then Mint, which is the main reason I didn't tie the vote yesterday. Evidently Ventyl was your top choice, but if you switched your vote would it have been to Mint or Striker?

At the time it probably would have been for the reasons I stated in my reads posts D2, which was mainly from tone at that point since they hadn’t posted much when I analysed them. C3 I don’t think much had changed—while I still didn’t like their reasons for voting Shade, their thought process seemed genuinely village. 
My 1-2-3 was Ventyl-Mint-Striker. 

30 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

Hell if I know, but I'll try to add something to the discussion. 

I don't like how quickly Vapor and Ash jumped on Mist. Vapor just repeated TJ's reasoning. Ash seems more tentative, so I'm interested in what their promised later post will contain.

 

Yeah, this was odd. I could see an elim doing this to protect other lynch targets (myself and Striker).

 

Same honestly, but I'd still like to hear some thoughts on players besides TJ, if you have any.

 

Yeah, considering how things have been going, I don't like the amount of trust Straw has gotten and I've been taking a closer look at the end of last cycle.

Straw kept the focus on TJ and Pyro in C2. In C3, he says he's suspicious of Ventyl and ended up voting for Striker. He worked very hard to provide reads in C1, which is how he gained everyone's trust but it's easy to do that in C1, because you can switch your reads later (since C1 reads have little basis anyways).

Fifth provided a lot of reads on C2, but he marked Pyro as his primary elim read once the Pyro train already started. In C3, Fifth went in to defend Striker once it was apparent that Striker was a viable candidate for the lynch, successfully keeping the attention on myself and Ventyl. The Ventyl lynch was already getting some support from Straw and Gears when Fifth voted for me, and when Striker became a viable candidate (Straw and Gears, who were very likely going to lead the lynch both indicated that Striker wouldn't be a bad target), Fifth says he doesn't want to lynch Striker. I vote for Striker, then Fifth brings up Ventyl again. For the most part, the rest of the cycle turned into a Ventyl vs. Mint situation, which took a lot of attention off Striker.

Right now I'm wondering if there's a Fifth-Striker-Lotus team, so I'm going to vote on Fifth. Lotus is the one who started with the Ventyl suspicions last cycle.

Points I agree with on Vapor, ash and Straw, but the rest of this I pretty much disagree with. I had Pyro as the stronger of two elim reads C1 when I was posting on low time, and my vote narrowed the gap between him and Silber, so my suspicion of Pyro C2 by no means came out of nowhere. I didn’t really “keep the attention” on you and Ventyl either, considering the number of votes Striker received after my post, and the fact that any of the voters on the Ventyl wagon (or yours) could have condemned him by the cycle’s close. But if you’re wondering why I defended Striker and are taking suspicion of me from that, wouldn’t it be more prudent to lynch him first and see if he’s evil before you go after me for it? I understand a village!Mint would automatically see Striker as the elim in the threesome from last cycle, but that assumes village!Mint, an assumption I can’t make. As such, because I find this vote poorly reasoned, and because my accumulated suspicion from the past three cycles hasn’t really evaporated upon reread, Frozen Mint. 

17 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, I started working on a big post, and then a bunch of stuff came up, so I'm scrapping that for now because I am very tired and there isn't a whole lot of time left in the cycle for me to give my thoughts. 

Based on what I did get a chance to look at though before I had to do things and lost all brain power to keep reading, I'm not a fan of how Shard of Reading and Mist were acting in that first cycle, seeming to basically sheep Straw's ideas out of nowhere. For now, seeing as it appears no one else really wants to lynch Frozen Mint right now, I'm going to vote for Mist. 

Also, here's a vote count for now:

Frozen Mint (1): Lotus, 
Mist (4): TJ Shade, Vapor, Ashbringer, Striker,
Fifth Scholar (4): Devotary, Lahilt, Mist, Frozen Mint

I...forgot why I quoted this. Oh. Now that there’s a switch back to Mint, would you mind joining? I would appreciate not dying, and find her a lot more suspicious than Mist. 

2 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Sorry for not being all that active these past couple of cycles. Lots of stuff irl happening at the most inopportune times.

I felt like there really wasn't much of an argument on Ventyl and so many people were voting on them based on gut reads that I got curious. In the case I was wrong and they were actually elim, fantastic. In the case that they were village, I was curious to see the responses by everyone who voted them, but.. that doesn't seem to have worked out 

It's actually very weird how people are essentially ignoring them, honestly.

I find myself agreeing with TJ that this post is just weird as heck. Some meta talk, a random statement that they find Straw village.

Then somehow ties Straw and Fifth interactions at the start of C1 with Silber's old Fifth/Xino team tinfoil with TJ and Fifth being on the same team? I'm honestly so confused.

For now, Mist. There is probably an elim hiding among the lesser active people and I think you're a good start.

I don’t think Lotus is being ignored. I’ve certainly brought them up a lot recently, as has Devotary. And they’ve been a good, consistent contributor, so I don’t see where your issue is here. And agreed that there’s probably an elim in the lower-actives, and that Mist is a good starting point (though Vapor is another person worth looking at), but on review I don’t think there’s a reason to let Mint go again when she looks the most legitimately suspicious out of the three lynch targets last cycle. (I will switch to Mist in self-preservation, though, if I have to. Which doesn’t look to be the case for the moment.)

[+Lotus]

Why do people keep guessing Elim teams in groups of three? It’s just funny, at least I think so. I think that they’re is probably more than three! 

Edited June 24, 2020 by MysticLotus

[StrikerEZ]

3 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I...forgot why I quoted this. Oh. Now that there’s a switch back to Mint, would you mind joining? I would appreciate not dying, and find her a lot more suspicious than Mist. 

I was just about to do that. Mist Frozen Mint. I would much prefer to lynch Mint than Mist.

[Mist]

None of these is meant as an unvote. Oh, wait. They're all dead.

C1: The Young Pyromancer: 5 (Gears, Matrim's Dice, Ashbringer, Eternum, Fifth Scholar)

Lord_Silberfarben: 7 (Straw, Vapor, TJ Shade, The_Truthwatcher, The Young Pyromancer, Frozen Mint, Devotary of Spontaneity)

Vapor: 1 (Mist)

Fifth Scholar: 1 (Lord_Silberfarben)

Straw: 1 (MysticLotus)

Lahilt: 1 (Xinoehp512)

Eternum: 1 (StrikerEZ)

Matrim's Dice: 1 (Lahilt)

 

C2: The Young Pyromancer: 14 (Gears, Matrim's Dice, Ashbringer, Straw, Vapor, Shard of Reading, Mist, TJ Shade, The_Truthwatcher, The Young Pyromancer, Frozen Mint, Fifth Scholar, Devotary of Spontaneity, Lahilt)

TJ Shade: 4 (Eternum, MysticLotus, Ventyl, StrikerEZ

 

C3: Ventyl: 5 (Gears, Eternum, MysticLotus, Frozen Mint, Fifth Scholar)

StrikerEZ: 4 (Ashbringer, Straw, Devotary of Spontaneity, Lahilt)

Frozen Mint: 4 (Vapor, Mist, TJ Shade, Ventyl)

Sparkrunner: 1 (The_Truthwatcher)

Villagers: Ventyl, Gears, Matrim, Silber, Pyro, Xino, Sparkrunner, Experience 

I was going to look at this. 

People on confirmed villagers 2+ times: Ashbringer, Eternum, Fifth Scholar, Straw, Vapor, TJ, Truthwatcher, Mint, Devotary, Lahilt. NAI on its own, but could be looked at.

[Mist]

Frozen Mint

[Fifth Scholar]

Frozen Mint
Mist

If Striker’s count is right it’s currently tied 4/4/4 and I’m not leaving my death to random chance. Sorry Mist. 

[Fifth Scholar]

Wait storm it Mint Mist

Edit: Probably too late

Edited June 24, 2020 by Fifth Scholar

[Orlok Tsubodai]

This cycle is now over. Please bear with me whilst I seek to timestamp the last three posts, to determine whether they made the end of cycle cut off.

[+Lotus]

@Mist

Very useful.

[Ashbringer]

Two double posts in a row... nice. But semi understandable.

[Arrae]

Gabe Orielle watched through the windows into a filthy skaa thieving den, his hands shaking. The Steel Ministry had killed his father for being unable to deal with this thieving crew. Even though they were only a cadet branch of the Orielles, news of the death had spread all the way to Luthadel, where the rest of the Orielles were based. Gabe had been given a choice: fix his father’s mistakes or have the entire cadet branch disowned for its failures.

The sheer number of skaa here was disgusting. Such rooting, dirty creatures. Gabe looked among them, hoping to pick out the Steel Ministry’s infiltrators, but none of them stood out to him. Each of them looked equally stupid, equally subhuman, equally likely to stab him without a second thought. He let out a quiet sob. How was he supposed to do this by himself?

Then, miracle of miracles, a fight broke out. One of the skaa pointed at another, accusing them of keeping a low profile. More jumped on the accusation. Then a skaa accused someone else, backing it up with their fists.

Yes! Maybe he could do this! Gabe downed a vial of zinc shavings and burned it, pulling on the emotions of all the skaa there. Anger, righteousness, fear. The small fight turned into a full brawl.

Gabe snuck past the fighting skaa -- they weren’t his real goal. Nobody heard his footsteps. He went down a hallway, into another room, this one a touch less dirty than the other one. It had actual furniture here, a desk with an ornate chair and a bed with a large skaa snoring on it. He pulled a paper from his pocket and compared the face on it to the face of the skaa. Check. This was Stink, crewleader of the thieving crew that had plagued his father for so long.

He could do this. With this, Gabe would restore glory to his branch of the Orielles. He would make up for his father’s failings. Gabe tiptoed to the bed, drew a dagger, and buried it in Stink’s chest.

Stink jerked awake and threw his body forward onto Gabe’s. He reached his hands around Gabe’s neck and squeezed.

“You’re not killing me so easily, ya Ministry punk!” Stink roared.

Spots swam in Gabe’s vision. He pummeled at Stink with his fists, but the weight was too much. Even for a wounded man, Stink was strong.

Another, feminine voice sounded in the distance. “Stink? Is everything okay?” Then, someone else entered the room.

With desperate panic, Gabe flared the last of his zinc and yanked on everything he could get in this new person. Ambition. Calm. Cruelty. Opportunism. Then he yanked on Stink’s sense of despair.

The woman picked up the chair and brought it down upon Stink’s head. Then, she brought it down upon Gabe’s. His vision went black, and he knew no more.

---

Hey y’all, this is Rae again. I’m sorry to tell you this, but… Stink is dead. A Steel Ministry assassin killed him. I was there to comfort him in his last moments, and he said that he wanted me to run the crew. So here I am.

Here’s my first order: stop fighting each other. From what I hear, a whole lot of people bludgeoned Lumin to death, and someone took advantage of the chaos to knife Vilt. Reading over there looks like he keeled over from sheer fright. We can’t keep doing this, people! From now on, if you’re suspicious of someone, send them to me and we’ll make a jail for them.

Feather, Varen, Caliex, I’m nominating you to bury the bodies. The rest of you are going to scrub this room clean from all the bloodstains, you hear me?

Go on, get to it. Remember, if you’re suspicious of anyone, jail them, don’t kill them.

---

Vote count:
Mist: 5 (Ashbringer, Straw, TJ Shade, Eternum, Fifth Scholar)
Frozen Mint: 4 (Vapor, Mist, MysticLotus, StrikerEZ
Fifth Scholar: 3 (Frozen Mint, Devotary of Spontaneity, Lahilt)

Lahilt is killed, and is a Skaa, Mist is a Skaa, and Shard of Reading dies of inactivity, and is also a Skaa

Player list:

Spoiler

1. Gears - Skaa
2. Matrim's Dice - Rieldi - Skaa
3. Ashbringer
4. Straw
5. Vapor
6. Shard of Reading - Reading - Skaa
7. Mist - Lumen- Skaa
8. Lord_Silberfarben - Skaa
9. TJ Shade - Box
10. The_Truthwatcher
11. Eternum
12. MysticLotus - Feather
13. TheYoungPyromancer - Skaa
14. Experience - Drahs Xperience
15. Frozen Mint
16. Ventyl - Aaiden Etteax - Skaa
17. Fifth Scholar - Al Funcoot
18. Devotary of Spontaneity - Caliex
19. Xinoehp512 - Pelran - Skaa
20. StrikerEZ - Varen Darland
21. Lahilt - Vilt Fayn Dangera - Skaa[/green]
22. Sparkrunner - Roadwalker

 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Arraenae

[StrikerEZ]

Whelp, I think it’s LyLo now. We obviously didn’t have 6 elims since the game is still going, so that means half of the rest of you are elims. Frozen Mint. I think it’s time we finally lynch her, as she’s been avoiding the lynch for so many cycles now.

[+Lotus]

O_O I don’t think we can win this.

[Frozen Mint]

I'm going to quote myself from last cycle:

Quote

 

As far as lynching me goes, I have no idea how to defend myself when no one is pointing to what I've done that's suspicious. Striker and TJ are the only ones who've provided reasons and I've answered them both.

 

I keep seeing it mentioned that I always deflect suspicion, which is somehow... suspicious. What am I deflecting exactly? Because in C2, despite the lynch train on me, people didn't feel very strongly about lynching me. IMO the reason the suspicion keeps "sliding off me" is because there's no substance to it. I just see a lot of votes without much reasoning behind them.

@MysticLotus @Vapor Both of you voted on me saying you find me suspicious, without elaborating. Would you guys be willing to share your reasons for suspecting me?

Not sure if I'll be able to get on later so voting on Fifth for now.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Since we presumably have five elims out of the remaining eleven players, we'll need every villager to put their vote on the same person. The elims might not be able to have everyone online at rollover to hammer, but there's no reason to risk it. I think I'm going to go for Fifth again, but I don't know. Presumably only one of Striker and Mint is evil, and even if we lynch Fifth and don't lose we'd have to pick one of them. I'd go for Striker over Mint, even though I'd be willing to believe Fifth put purposefully voted for Mint too late for it to count.

Things start to get super shaky after that even if we somehow survive another two cycles. I don't really have too much of a long term plan, Fifth-Striker-Straw is the furthest I've guessed. I'd say Ash and Mint are unlikely with that team. TJ could be with Fifth I guess. If Straw and Truthwatcher were both elims I'd have expected at least one of them to vote yesterday. I've got nothing on Vapor. Eternum was village read for a while but that means not so much with exclusively village dead. Lotus could be evil, possibly, but that doesn't work great with elim!TJ, and Striker doesn't either. Was TJ ever in serious danger of dying? It got to 7-6 at one point, I know.

[Eternum]

Quote

I don’t think Lotus is being ignored. I’ve certainly brought them up a lot recently, as has Devotary. And they’ve been a good, consistent contributor, so I don’t see where your issue is here. And agreed that there’s probably an elim in the lower-actives, and that Mist is a good starting point (though Vapor is another person worth looking at), but on review I don’t think there’s a reason to let Mint go again when she looks the most legitimately suspicious out of the three lynch targets last cycle. (I will switch to Mist in self-preservation, though, if I have to. Which doesn’t look to be the case for the moment.)

@Fifth Scholar  You misunderstood me: I didn't mean Lotus was being ignored, I meant that the results of the Ventyl lynch were being ignored. The fact that everyone seems so comfortable with it makes me feel worse about literally everyone. This may very well be tinfoil, but this is what I'm seeing right now: Mint and Striker push on each-other to distance themselves, Lotus slowly builds up agreement for a completely different, baseless train. Gears is killed to make it seem like the lynch was actually village-instigated, and everyone gets off scot-free. Suspicions had been building on Ventyl, but all they amounted to were gut reads and overanalyzation of things an elim would definitely not say.

I think a Lotus/Striker/Mint team is genuinely possible. So, for now, MysticLotus.

As for the other two members, Vapor is a possibility. So is TJ, I see Lotus's immediate vote on TJ after Pyro flipped village as a deterrent to voting TJ, if anything. Or just simple distancing. At that point a train on TJ seemed unlikely, so an ultimately harmless vote at the beginning of a cycle proves nothing.

To summarize, Lotus/Striker/Mint/TJ or Vapor is a possibility. I haven't really thought much farther than that. It wouldn't make sense for Straw to be a part of this, and if Vapor is an elim Truthwatcher is unlikely to be and vice versa. It'd be extremely bold to have two elims barely skirt past the filter for as long as they did. Not sure how Devotary, Fifth or Ashbringer fit into this yet, but I'll think it through and post again when I'm not on the road.

[theTruthshaper]

I will be posting my reads later, but I just wanted to ask; who was @Fifth Scholar trying to vote on in his last post?

[Straw]

2 hours ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

I will be posting my reads later, but I just wanted to ask; who was @Fifth Scholar trying to vote on in his last post?

He was switching back onto Mint from Mist.

[|TJ|]

12 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Was TJ ever in serious danger of dying? It got to 7-6 at one point, I know.

I think it would have been extremely close if Pyro hadn't voted for himself. That basically gave everyone a reason to shift the vote to him. 

12 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If Straw and Truthwatcher were both elims I'd have expected at least one of them to vote yesterday.

Straw voted for Mist though. 

Now that it's 10 players excluding me, there's 1 elim for every 1 villager so there's actually a very high probability of at least one of Fifth or Straw is an elim. I'll try to guess the elim team based on their interactions and actions in the thread splitting it into 4 cases - Fifth + Straw, Straw without Fifth, Fifth without Straw, and an elim team without Fifth or Straw.

Case - 1: Fifth + Straw 

Well, there's no reason why this shouldn't be the case.  Actually, I have a few good reasons to be suspicious of Straw:

• Straw played with Pyro as the elim team in the most recent MR. He should have, for all reasons, known that Pyro's action that caused suspicion were, at least to an extent, NAI. Instead, he was the one to point out the actions as weird and hammered in on him.
• I feel the Silber lynch would never have materialised if he did not turn his vote after my offer. Seeing a potential alternate to a Pyro lynch, he went for it knowing he could come back to Pyro in C2. If we had lynched Pyro in C1, elims could not come back to Lord Sil in C2. While setting up Pyro for C2, he also set me up using 2 reasons - my defence on Pyro and my vote on Sil, possibly setting me up for C2 or C3. Now obviously he can't attack me himself seeing as he voted for Sil, so here comes Eternum, and maybe Frozen Mint. More on Eternum later.
• If Fifth is involved in this, it makes sense that Frozen Mint is as well, seeing as he saved her 2 cycles in a row. 
• Fifth and Straw defend me, while Eternum and Mint attack me, distancing them from each other. 
• If Fifth + Straw is a team, they are using a unique strategy of agreeing on certain points (lynching Truthwatcher) and vehemently disageeing on some others' (Striker's lynch). Either Striker or Frozen Mint is 4th person of the team in the scenario, and I'm leaning Mint. 
• Straw and Eternum attacked Vapor in C1 for being confused but quickly accepted the new player confusion. They could have easily understood that it was new player confusion before attacking her. Seems like distancing.

Likely team: Straw, Fifth Scholar, Eternum, Frozen Mint, Vapor 
Outside chance: Striker, Ashbringer

Case - 2: Straw

• Most of the points in Case - 1 still applies so I'd still keep Eternum. Frozen Mint is a different case though. I'd like to think Straw's high suspicion on Striker but no intent to vote is a proof of elim!Striker. But there Frozen Mint - Striker argument could go either way. One thing is sure, both are not elims together. 
• Vapor would still be in the team due to reasons mentioned above.
• The fifth person, I have no clue. Could be Ashbringer or Devotary.

Likely Team: Straw, Eternum, Striker, Vapor, Devotary
Outside chance: Frozen Mint, Ashbringer, 

Case - 3: Fifth Scholar

• Likely together with Frozen Mint. 
• Unsure of Eternum, but no reason why they should not be. 
• Devotary likely not in this team. 
• Unsure of Vapor. Probably Mystic Lotus could be a part. 
• This is the only case where there's a likely possibility of Striker and Mint being on the same team. In C3, she could have known Fifth would try to flip to Vently, and hence voted on Striker as self-preservation. When Ventyl lynch became available, she flipped as well

Fifth is unlikely to be an elim without Straw, so I'm unsure about the whole team
Likely Team: Fifth Scholar, Frozen Mint, Striker
Other possibilities: Eternum, Vapor, Mystic Lotus, Ashbringer

Case - 4: None of the above

Yeah, this is where all the reads go off. I suppose there could be an Eternum, Devotary, Striker, Vapor, Ashbringer, but... I just don't see it. 

In all the above cases, you can easily replace Frozen Mint with Striker, and add Ashbringer and Mystic Lotus for outside chance. 

I was a bit unsure about Eternum until their post:

6 hours ago, Eternum said:

@Fifth Scholar  You misunderstood me: I didn't mean Lotus was being ignored, I meant that the results of the Ventyl lynch were being ignored. The fact that everyone seems so comfortable with it makes me feel worse about literally everyone. This may very well be tinfoil, but this is what I'm seeing right now: Mint and Striker push on each-other to distance themselves, Lotus slowly builds up agreement for a completely different, baseless train. Gears is killed to make it seem like the lynch was actually village-instigated, and everyone gets off scot-free. Suspicions had been building on Ventyl, but all they amounted to were gut reads and overanalyzation of things an elim would definitely not say.

I think a Lotus/Striker/Mint team is genuinely possible. So, for now, MysticLotus.

As for the other two members, Vapor is a possibility. So is TJ, I see Lotus's immediate vote on TJ after Pyro flipped village as a deterrent to voting TJ, if anything. Or just simple distancing. At that point a train on TJ seemed unlikely, so an ultimately harmless vote at the beginning of a cycle proves nothing.

To summarize, Lotus/Striker/Mint/TJ or Vapor is a possibility. I haven't really thought much farther than that. It wouldn't make sense for Straw to be a part of this, and if Vapor is an elim Truthwatcher is unlikely to be and vice versa. It'd be extremely bold to have two elims barely skirt past the filter for as long as they did. Not sure how Devotary, Fifth or Ashbringer fit into this yet, but I'll think it through and post again when I'm not on the road.

 Yeah, I disagree with this. This honestly gives me the vibe that you're going for a mislynch here. There's no reason to not include Fifth and Straw and consider them as elim and try to analyse. A villager would try to include all possibilities here, and not just simply ignore villager-y players. Striker seems to be suspicious only for his reasoning against me, so if you believe his reasoning is fake/ false, then that should conclude in the thought that I'm village. Striker has not been involved in too much vote hopping. He's going too hard for him and Mint to be teammates, and he's backing it with votes at crucial junctures. 
Mystic's vote on me seems to be gut, and she seems to be a bit too focused on a single player for a large amount of time, aka me and Straw. She had her vote on me for the entire duration of C2 when I was up for lynch with Pyro. She had/has every intention of killing me. But I did find her flip to Ventyl odd, so I'm a bit unsure about her. 
Overall, that team is without connections to each other, or too many opposing connections to each other. Let me remind you that the elims do not need to distance themselves or have the need to bus because all they need is one mislynch. There's too little vote-hopping. There's barely any conversation between me and Vapor. And Mint, Striker and Lotus wanted to kill me together in the same cycle. Frankly, I think you could have found all this out if you were a villager. This looks like a misdirection from an eliminator. That team composition honestly doesn't make sense. 

I understand that my analysis has a lot of assumptions, and I could be horribly wrong but I feel we have to go away from what people are assuming as "suspicious" ( it's mostly one action that is overreacted to to make it seem like the person is sus) to what people are believe as "trustworthy" who haven't done anything exactly to gain the trust. Going after "suspicious" people got us here after all. If it's the our last turn, might as well take the risk. 

I'd be fine with lynching Fifth, Straw, Eternum, and Mint. I feel strongly towards Straw and Eternum. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by TJ Shade