Quick Fix 45: To Set an Example

[Vapor she/her]

25 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

So I read everything that happened in the last thread after I went away, but I can't figure out why was Pyro not defending himself. On reading their posts, it very much feels like they were an elim. Has anybody played with them before? Is this their normal playing style?

It does.

No

[theTruthshaper]

On rereads I am suspecting Gears very much, they started the train on Pyro both times, and their posts feel very... manipulative, for lack of a better word. However, I don't know, they could be just very good at analysis. I low key feel that they are manipulating the consensus very finely.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I'm going to take out Devotary as well because the timing of her votes seems just too obvious for an elim, always right near the end of a bandwagon (though it seems like that might be the only time she can get on to the shard as well, unless I'm misreading the things she's posted).

I can be on the Shard at times other than an hour before rollover, I just have a habit of not voting until very late in the cycle. I get that putting down votes early restricts the voting pool to candidates of a voter's choice, I just don't feel like it should except for timezone issues. I'd rather not have another situation like last cycle where only votes for TJ or Pyro could conceivably count until much later in the cycle.

[Gears]

12 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

On rereads I am suspecting Gears very much, they started the train on Pyro both times, and their posts feel very... manipulative, for lack of a better word. However, I don't know, they could be just very good at analysis. I low key feel that they are manipulating the consensus very finely.

Could you elaborate? Where exactly do you see evidence of a manipulating hand? 

[theTruthshaper]

I mean, your posts just feel weird. I am not very good at explaining, and this is more of a gut instinct, but nevertheless I will try to:

Quote

The following is my analysis of the lynch train on Fifth. As far as I can tell, Fifth is merely voting because voting is mandatory and Straw is his highest suspicion. Silber voted Fifth because of a tinfoil theory concerning a xino-Fifth team. Devotary voted Fifth because they think multiple votes on an individual would provoke a response. Straw voted on Fifth in retaliation and to prompt discussion. Vapor and Pyro mimicked Straw and voted Fifth. Considering that voting is mandatory, I understand how Fifth could be a questionable individual, but watch for votes without reasoning like Vapor and Pyro. 

This is when you started the first vote train on Pyro. While you did give a good reason, it feels suspicious right now. An elim would try to give more reason to his votes then a villager. A elim must have a consistent position so as to not give himself away.

I have more reasons but I have to go eat breakfast, I will edit this post after returning.

[Gears]

1 minute ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

I mean, your posts just feel weird. I am not very good at explaining, and this is more of a gut instinct, but nevertheless I will try to:

This is when you started the first vote train on Pyro. While you did give a good reason, it feels suspicious right now. An elim would try to give more reason to his votes then a villager. A elim must have a consistent position so as to not give himself away.

I have more reasons but I have to go eat breakfast, I will edit this post after returning.

So what you seem to be saying is that an elim needs to be a better villager than the villagers to avoid suspicion, and because I'm doing such a good job at explaining my reasoning and being consistent, I'm suspicious? Have I done too good of a job?

[theTruthshaper]

Well since Gears has replied, I decided not to edit my post.

41 minutes ago, Gears said:

So what you seem to be saying is that an elim needs to be a better villager than the villagers to avoid suspicion, and because I'm doing such a good job at explaining my reasoning and being consistent, I'm suspicious? Have I done too good of a job?

Not exactly, I am suspicious of the fact that you are suspicious of votes with low reasoning. Also, your reasoning feels like rationalizing . It feels as if the reasoning you give is a cleverly created correct argument but is not the reason you are voting for the said person. Simply, I cannot put my finger on it but something seems off about your arguments.

I hope that my thought process is clear. I am not very good at explaining my instincts.

[|TJ| he/him]

*sigh* Here we go again.

Quote

You're contributing but you haven't taken any strong stances, which makes it easy for you to change your stances without drawing attention to yourself.

@Frozen Mint

Not taking any strong stances? I was the only person defending Pyro's actions as NAI. A defence like that is sure to draw attention, and that's exactly what happened. I suggested the Silber lynch and did not change my vote after. How is that not a strong stance that I'm willing to lynch them?

Quote

There's a defensiveness about them. They give off the tone of someone who's been cornered.

Anyone else felt like this? Or was I calm and composed when defending myself and gave logical and sound reasoning for my actions?

Quote

 I’m placing my vote on TJ for now solely that they seem likely to have a higher chance of being elim than Pyro.

@Ventyl, how did you reach the conclusion that I have a higher chance of being elim than Pyro?

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I think I’m going to stick with my vote on TJ. He jumped on last rounds bandwagon a little quick then I think was appropriate.

@MysticLotus, there was just one vote on Sil when I voted for them. How is that jumping on bandwagon?

Quote

You stated that Pyro's actions were NAI, based on other player's reads. Only person to mention anything about Pyro was Devotary.
Sil's suspicious statements were specifically all the tinfoiling. You did not vote on Sil because of them, but because you believed there should be a reasoning behind his vote. As I said above, I don't understand that at all.
Also, your point about elims not wanting to start trains is eh. Maybe so, if they want to lay low, but just because that's the safe option doesn't mean elims won't take action. It all comes down to personal playstyle.

@Eternum My defence of Pyro's actions were my own, not based on other player's reads. It's from my experience of playing with them. I did not use Devotary's post as a reason as she told them she believes him when he said his votes on Fifth were a placeholder. I said him shift votes and retracting them for no reason in normal for him and shouldn't be AI. There's a difference.
You are tunneling, man. You're tunneling hard. You over-analyzed my vote Xino, and you're over-analyzing vote on Sil. Either that or you're setting me up for a mislynch seeing as you planted the seeds of my suspicion back in C1. You're also conveniently ignoring the valid points I made in my defence, like the choice of xino as the elim kill wouldn't make sense if I was an elim since it would directly implicate me. Your whole response seems to just want to brush off my defence rather than understand my reasoning. While that's good tactic, it's also important to try and understand the intentions of a villager trying to prevent his mislych. Think from both sides, what would you do if you were a villager trying to prevent your mislynch?
Since you're fine with lynching me because I was the first one to suggest a Silber lynch, then it's only fair, by your logic, that it would be make sense to lynch you next cycle when I flip village because you are the first one to start a train on me. Do you think that's fair?

5 hours ago, Gears said:

TJ Shade: Did TJ ever support the Pyro lynch? IIRC, he just defended himself. Mentions wanting to rage-lynch Pyro for something in the LG. [Doesn't agree with the lynch (maybe, someone correct me if I'm wrong)]

No I did not. Not even this cycle if you notice. I did not feel convinced by a single player's reasoning that showed they were elim. Don't you guys think something is inherently wrong that there were trains only on me and Pyro? That too in the very 2nd cycle? With not enough solid reasoning because apparently majority of the people who voted for me just seem to take my vote for Silber into account, and nothing else. Elims easily have 2 cycles of mislynch by building a train between a C1 suspicion and their defender. My vote at the end was purely self-preservation since I did not know the vote count at that time.

5 hours ago, MysticLotus said:

I also didn’t like how quickly it felt like they got on the Pyro party.

Huh, explain this please? I was never on the Pyro party. See this is what I'm talking about. Too many false assumptions flying about, whether deliberate or not.

4 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I find Shard's and TJ's votes the most suspicious of those votes though.

How? As I stated earlier, I voted purely out of self-preservation because I did not know the vote count at the time. Wait, I don't think I understood your statement. Do you find my vote on Pyro suspicious or that I'm the most suspicious of the voters on Pyro?
Also, Striker, your reasoning on me is very vague. "His posts seems off","His votes seem off". What exactly is off? Please explain. If it's a gut read, then say so.

I think the person who mostly understood my intentions is Fifth. His read on me mostly explains what I'm been intending to tell from my posts. 

Elims seem dead set on my mislynch, with players finding fault in each and every one of my actions. Vote on xino? Sus. Vote on Sil? Same. Defend Pyro?  Elim. Pyro flips elim. Obviously elim. Pyro flips village. Still elim. I mean, am I the only person seeing this?

Can we please have a discussion of a player other than me, or should we have a 15+ vote one-man lynch train on me?

Still suspicious of Frozen Mint. Anybody willing to go there?

I'll try to come up with an analysis post, but I can't do that if I have to keep defending. So any further votes/suspicions and responses to my posts will have to wait after my analysis post. 

 

[Gears]

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Still suspicious of Frozen Mint. Anybody willing to go there?

I don't think you're an elim, but I am nearly certain that no one else will agree. Mint's suspicion of you is something that I indeed find suspicious, and with no other opportune targets, I suppose I must vote Frozen Mint

[theTruthshaper]

Around what time will people start to post? I really don't want to have to give another premature vote.

[Gears]

3 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

Around what time will people start to post? I really don't want to have to give another premature vote.

Last cycle, people started to post because I pinged everyone who didn't vote. Just go ahead and vote now, and you can always change it later. 

[theTruthshaper]

The problem is that I might not be able to come online afterwards. Well, I will just have to try to steal some time.

Edited June 23, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher

[StrikerEZ he/him]

8 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

How? As I stated earlier, I voted purely out of self-preservation because I did not know the vote count at the time. Wait, I don't think I understood your statement. Do you find my vote on Pyro suspicious or that I'm the most suspicious of the voters on Pyro?

It’s because of the timing and the manner in which you voted for Pyro. You say it was in self preservation, but you hadn’t seriously been a possibility for getting lynched since Pyro voted on himself. Maybe you missed that, and maybe your vote was mostly placed because of the filter. If that’s the case, then your vote makes a little more sense.

8 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Also, Striker, your reasoning on me is very vague. "His posts seems off","His votes seem off". What exactly is off? Please explain. If it's a gut read, then say so.

It is mostly a gut read. I do think that most of it is because of how defensive you’ve been. Obviously, a villager can and would be defensive because they know their own alignment, but the level at which you’re being defensive just seems a bit much. As if you’re scrambling to try and prevent a lynch on you because you really really don’t want to die. Which, normally, tends to be more of an elim tactic. Of course, I could end up being totally wrong, and I’ll have to rethink everything in this game so far if that’s the case.

[Vapor she/her]

I have realized voting Mist will not work (And I want my vote to mean something), so I am going to vote Frozen Mint also. 

Edited June 23, 2020 by Vapor

[|TJ| he/him]

So here's my analysis on the game so far by player and chronological order

Gears:

• Started off by stating that we need to vote on players with no votes. Later clarifies this was only until a lynch discussion starts, not for the entire C1. Reaffirms this after Mint’s assumption as well. 
• States Silber is not likely evil because they would have peer reviewed their post.
• States they do not think my switch off xino is suspicious. 
• Agrees that my defence against Eternum’s vote makes sense
• Does not think I'm elim and semi-clears based on Pyro's village flip.

Verdict: They have been fairly solid in their analysis barring a thing or two. I found their posts a bit too formal for my tastes and felt it was structured that way to make obtaining reads difficult and I'm willing to lean village at this point.

Straw:

• Starts off with strong questioning intent. Against random voting. Unhappy with votes without reasoning. Disagrees with Fifth about.. almost everything vote related, like stating poke votes do not contribute to C1 discussion, no info can be obtained by random elim votes.
• Gives Gears a mild village read for being the first poster, to which I already disagreed previously. 
• Makes a read post giving Mint an elim read for jumping on Gears but states they do not know if Mint knows that Gears is new. Votes for Fifth as he found Fifth’s vote on him odd as it lacked reasoning. 
• Votes on Pyro for the vote and subsequent retraction on Fifth. 
• Votes on Vapor for vote-hopping.
• Asks players alternates from a pool of Devotary, Lahilt, Lord Sil, Pyro and Xino. Apparently, I was one of the few who responded for this post and everyone else took my suggestion and ran with it. 
• States there’s no reason for me to change my vote from Pyro to Silber if I was elim.  
• Votes on Pyro stating previous cycle’s reasons.

Verdict: Their highly inquisitive nature and constant contribution to discussion makes me want to lean village at this point. But my paranoid self is a bit wary. Check end of post.

Frozen Mint:

• Immediately jumps on Gears for their first post about the above mentioned voting style. Even after Gears clarified what they meant, Mint assumes their post implies they meant the voting style to continue for the entire C1. Why assume the implication of Gears’ first post after Gears clarifies what they meant? 
• Replies to Straw by confessing the reasoning was flimsy and they did not know Gears was a new player. Everyone seems to accept this, but shouldn’t Gears’ post count (at the time) give Mint a pause or a hint that Gears could be a new player? 
• Read post. Gives an elim read on Matrim because he wanted to give more thought to his vote. She assumes it's an elim delay tactic. But gives a village read on Straw for the same reason because she feels it’s “genuine disagreement”. Gives me a village read because even though I was suspicious for laying low, my commentary on Straw is helpful and I’m not bandwagon-y. Fact. 3 of the dead people are given elim read by Frozen Mint, in direct contrast to Eternum (the same dead people by the way -  Lord Sil, Matrim and Xino) (check under Eternum).
• Their next read post gives an elim read on me but I already spoke about it earlier. 
• Votes for me. Explains Matrim is giving more of a village vibe, but they seem to only be considering how early/late in the cycle the player voted, which is not a good reasoning. 
• Changes votes on Pyro because of lack of reasoning from his part. 

Verdict: I'm a bit confused and less certain of their elim-ness after this analysis than before. But their reasoning on suspicion on me and Matrim is just enough for me to lean mild elim.

Striker:

• Supports poke voting. 
• Read post. Votes for Mist because he finds her voting odd, though Mist voted only once, that was for Vapor. States that they find my posts normal. 
• Mentions suspicion on me because they feel like voting on difference of opinion is valid. He is backed by several other players as well, though I do not know how my statement is suspicious. 

Verdict: Since their vote on me is gut read, I can't really figure them out properly. Their first read post was based on skimming of the thread and consisted lots of "I think this has happened" or "I don't exactly remember". They haven't exactly been helpful other than their push for me, which seems like they took Pyro's post saying their were trying to distance from as a challenge to firmly push for me. Will have to wait and see. Null.

Mist:

• Agrees with Straw stating they don't like votes without reasoning as well. Votes on Vapor despite stating it’s her first game. 

Verdict: Would like to see more. Null.

Truthwatcher:

• Adds support against random votes. Then votes on Lord Sil at random. States that they voted at random to dodge the inactivity filter as they do not know if they could come on later. States that they do not have enough information to make a reasoned vote but do not want the first strike of inactivity to explain their vote. 
• Strangely pushing for suspicion on Gears this cycle

Verdict: While I found the stuff in first point villager-y, their push on Gears is weird. I suppose it's a gut read so I'll lean village for now.

Fifth Scholar:

• Votes on Straw seemingly out of their disagreement. Makes the point that eliminators' votes will never be random. Calls out Mint for being hasty in their assumption about Gears. Supports poke voting as they feel it promotes C1 discussion to which they are strongly opposed by Straw.
• Came on much later in the cycle and yet felt compelled to give a reason for their vote on Straw, despite the fact that the lynch train on them had fallen off. 
• Couple of solid read posts, most of which I agree with. Perfectly explains what is going on in my situation. 

Verdict: I'm getting a solid village read from them. Paranoid me will be wary. Check end of post. 

Mystic Lotus:

• Random votes on Straw.
• Now finds suspicion on Straw because he opposes random voting.
• Votes for me stating they do not understand how it will reveal my alignment is Pyro’s alignment is known. 
• Sticks with voting for me because I jumped on the bandwagon. 

Verdict: Their persistence on their suspicion on Straw is strange when Straw hasn't done anything remotely suspicious. I do not understand the 'jumping on bandwagon' part since there certainly wasn't a bandwagon when I voted on Lord Sil. New players are always hard to get read on so I'll stick with null for now.

Vapor:

• States they are voting for Fifth after analyzing, but do not state what their analysis was. 
• States they voted on Fifth because they weren’t really sure whom to vote for (direct contradiction to their previous post). Votes on Straw. Reason for suspicion not mentioned. 
• Changes vote to Pyro after being asked the reason for their vote. Probably a confused  villager confusing villagers. The unstable voting would not be the case if they had teammates. 

Verdict: I think she definitely would not be so confused if she had teammates and her confusion seemed genuine, and not fake. The vote-hopping simply would not have occurred if she was an elim. Her teammates would have stopped that. Village.

Eternum:

• Starts with a read post. I just noticed 3 of the players who are dead were given village reads by Eternum. It might be worth looking into. They gave Lord Sil a village read when Sil was definitely being suspicious. Votes for Pyro.
• Explains their vote on Pyro despite me stating their actions are NAI, which forces me to again state that despite their reasoning being valid, Pyro’s actions are still NAI. 
• Votes for me explaining the timeline of Silber lynch to which I’ve already given my defence. 
• Brushes off my defence. Have already given response for this.

Verdict: Tunneling villager or mislynching elim. Though I doubt an elim would push this hard for a mislynch, but that's the exact same reason they could give when I flip village. Be wary of such types. They attempt to do solid analysis and use their cred built of such analysis to subtly steer towards a mislynch, and tell 'Welp, that didn't work out. Let's move on." afterwards. Seriously cannot chose one over the other with conviction. 

Lahilt:

• Votes for Matrim as they do not have reads on anybody and he is voting based off other players’ posts and gut reads. It doesn’t make sense to vote on other people’s gut reads since gut reads are personal. 
• Responds vote on Matrim as a hasty decision and it was based on Mint’s elim read on them. 
• Confronted Ventyl over their statement of me being elim is higher than Pyro

Verdict: Odd voting style, but somewhat redeemed themselved in C2. Would like to see more of them. Null.

Ventyl:

• Already mentioned their comment on xino’s death earlier. 
• Votes on me but states votes on both me and Pyro is good. Highly suspicious post. “I don’t see the difference in whom we vote for.” He knew we both were village? States I have a higher chance of being an elim than Pyro, gives no reasoning.

Verdict: Strongest elim read post-analysis. 

Notes by Paranoid!TJ:

The initial clash of opinions between Fifth and Straw is nagging me. Paranoid!me is thinking it was staged while I know the most logical choice would be a village/village interaction. Notable thing is after that initial debate, they seemed to have avoided coming to heads with one another. I suppose there is no reason to, but there is little to no interaction between them. I know both of you defended me, and this may seem ungrateful, and I'm sorry for that. It may be nothing, but it's something to be wary about. 

I'll be willing to lynch either Frozen Mint or Ventyl at this point. 

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Obviously, a villager can and would be defensive because they know their own alignment, but the level at which you’re being defensive just seems a bit much.

What is the right level of defensiveness a villager facing a mislynch show, Striker? Should I not try to provide an answer for everything and be as clear as possible to prevent you guys from making the wrong choice? Why would a villager facing a mislynch show less intent to live than an eliminator? 

Edited June 23, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Mint11 she/her]

16 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I'll be leaving Frozen Mint in because of the timing of her vote, almost right after Pyro voted on himself. Could easily see that as an elim thinking something along the lines of, "well, if he's going to vote on himself, may as well join in."

I don't see what elim!Mint would have to gain from switching her vote to Pyro, unless she was protecting elim!TJ. Which would be strange because I have been pretty vocal about finding TJ suspicious.

 

I have village reads on Straw and Eternum at the moment. I'm also getting village vibes from Striker, especially based on their analysis this cycle.

Reading over the posts last cycle, Gears' and TJ's interactions stood out to me:
- Gears defended TJ in response to Eternum's post. This was after a number of suspicions had been raised about TJ.
- Gears then says that we should lynch Pyro as opposed to TJ. He says that Pyro being an elim makes TJ more suspicious, and Pyro flipping village makes it more likely that TJ is village (playing off of Straw's idea). (This was also after Matrim asked Straw to choose between a Pyro lynch and a TJ lynch. Gears answered before Straw did.)

I will also say that Gears has shown he plays well enough to potentially be good at disguising himself as a villager. So the whole new player thing is NAI.

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

It is mostly a gut read. I do think that most of it is because of how defensive you’ve been. Obviously, a villager can and would be defensive because they know their own alignment, but the level at which you’re being defensive just seems a bit much. As if you’re scrambling to try and prevent a lynch on you because you really really don’t want to die. Which, normally, tends to be more of an elim tactic. Of course, I could end up being totally wrong, and I’ll have to rethink everything in this game so far if that’s the case.

(Striker's reply to TJ.) This. Very much this.

 

So I'm seeing an elim team with both Gears and TJ. On the other hand, I don't really know what to think at this point since my suspicions keep flipping village. I'd like to see what others' thoughts are.

But one thing I've become more certain about on a reread is that I'm really wary of how Shard of Reasoning is voting and not contributing much to the discussion at all. And thus far, they have managed to stay completely out of the spotlight.

Fair warning that my activity level is going to go down. This game started the weekend after I finished my course so I was pretty free but now it's onto the full-time job search. I realized that I was spending... a lot of time on the QF.

[+Lotus she/her]

After reading through TJ Shade's post, I think Im going to switch my vote to Ventyl . Shade made some really, really great points and I have to admit I don't have any very good reasons to vote for Shade at this point.

Edited June 23, 2020 by MysticLotus

[Gears]

Just now, MysticLotus said:

After reading through TJ Shade/s post, I think Im going to switch my vote to Ventyl . Shade made some really, really great points and I have to admit I don't have any very good reasons to vote for Shade at this point.

You have to green out your previous vote. Use the same code to change it to red but use the word green instead. 

[+Lotus she/her]

14 minutes ago, Gears said:

You have to green out your previous vote. Use the same code to change it to red but use the word green instead. 

Like in my original post where I voted?

[Gears]

Just now, MysticLotus said:

Like in my original post where I voted?

No, in the same post where you put your new vote. It's easier to find that way.

[+Lotus she/her]

Just now, Gears said:

No, in the same post where you put your new vote. It's easier to find that way.

But, isn't that what I did? 

[Gears]

Just now, MysticLotus said:

But, isn't that what I did? 

Oh, sorry. I missed it somehow. 

[theTruthshaper]

Ah, a fellow colorblind person! Honestly, this red/green stuff is going to get me killed.

[+Lotus she/her]

9 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

Ah, a fellow colorblind person! Honestly, this red/green stuff is going to get me killed.

Maybe it should be changed so it's different colors. I mean, isn't red-green colorblindness the most common?

[theTruthshaper]

What is the vote count right now?

I will be going inactive very soon, so I will have to vote prematurely.

Edited June 23, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher