Kynedath Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 Can someone recap why Xino is suspected of being Bleeder?
Shard of Reading he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: Shard of Reading and Brightness Radiant are my main elim suspects. I'm rusting offended! I'm not an elim! Personally from what I see up here currently the elims are defiantly a bigger danger and we should not focus on bleeder until we actually get a lead. Personaly I think that we should lynch Sart because he seems to be lying low and avoiding talking.
Mat he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said: I'm rusting offended! I'm not an elim! Personally from what I see up here currently the elims are defiantly a bigger danger and we should not focus on bleeder until we actually get a lead. Personaly I think that we should lynch Sart because he seems to be lying low and avoiding talking. Hmm, I dunno. I don't think Sart is a good idea anymore. Sart… isn't an elim, pretty sure. More on this later. So, Bleeder suspect: Xino (Bugsy?) Elim suspects: Other then your two, TJ, I'll add in Experience and Kynedath. I actually have an entire elim team prediction, but I'll keep that to myself for now :)
Shard of Reading he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said: Hmm, I dunno. I don't think Sart is a good idea anymore. Sart… isn't an elim, pretty sure. More on this later. So, Bleeder suspect: Xino (Bugsy?) Elim suspects: Other then your two, TJ, I'll add in Experience and Kynedath. I actually have an entire elim team prediction, but I'll keep that to myself for now Hmmm... Sneaky. Highlight the rest of the elim sus's. You'll find some interesting stuff. Question: Why do you suspect TJ? He is implicating me and BR both of which you agree are elims. And I want to know your full team because hiding information does not help the village.
DeTess she/her Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said: I don't think Sart is a good idea anymore. Sart… isn't an elim, pretty sure. More on this later.ally have an entire elim team prediction, but I'll keep that to myself for now I agree that Sart is not an elim. Pyro was going after him too hard for that to be the case. And with Kynedath's scan I think that means they can't be Bleeder. @A Joe in the Bush, is a renowned guaranteed tog et the other role on their second scan?
Kynedath Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 Just now, Shard of Reading said: Hmmm... Sneaky. Highlight the rest of the elim sus's. You'll find some interesting stuff. Question: Why do you suspect TJ? He is implicating me and BR both of which you agree are elims. And I want to know your full team because hiding information does not help the village. He isn't saying that he suspects TJ, he is adding to TJs list. @Matrim's_Dice Could you explain your suspicions a bit more? I find your way of hiding information to be worrying and suspicious. You've hidden behind other peoples logic for a while now.
|TJ| he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said: Hmmm... Sneaky. Highlight the rest of the elim sus's. You'll find some interesting stuff. Question: Why do you suspect TJ? He is implicating me and BR both of which you agree are elims. And I want to know your full team because hiding information does not help the village. I don't think he suspects me. He said in addition to my two suspects he adds his. EDIT: Ahh ninja'd by Kynedath Edited June 4, 2020 by TJ Shade
Kynedath Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, DeTess said: I agree that Sart is not an elim. Pyro was going after him too hard for that to be the case. And with Kynedath's scan I think that means they can't be Bleeder. @A Joe in the Bush, is a renowned guaranteed tog et the other role on their second scan? Yes, we are guaranteed to get the role that we didn't receive last time.
Mat he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said: Hmmm... Sneaky. Highlight the rest of the elim sus's. You'll find some interesting stuff. Question: Why do you suspect TJ? He is implicating me and BR both of which you agree are elims. And I want to know your full team because hiding information does not help the village. HA didn't mean for that smiley face to post. Oh well. I don't suspect TJ at all. That just meant I agree with TJ's suspicions, here are two more. K, by popular demand, here is my elim team prediction. Hope I don't get lynched for this. Straw, Fura, Pyro, Devotary, BR, Reading, Experience and Kynedath Edited June 4, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice 2
Shard of Reading he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Kynedath said: He isn't saying that he suspects TJ, he is adding to TJs list. Oh that makes sense. Ignore what I said then. Edit: Ninja'd by three people! New record! Edited June 4, 2020 by Shard of Reading 1
Kynedath Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said: HA didn't mean for that smiley face to post. Oh well. I don't suspect TJ at all. That just meant I agree with TJ's suspicions, here are two more. K, by popular demand, here is my elim team prediction. Hope I don't get lynched for this. Straw, Fura, Pyro, Devotary, BR, Reading, Experience and Kynedath Okay, but why? What is your reasoning?
DeTess she/her Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said: Straw, Fura, Pyro, Devotary, BR, Reading, Experience and Kynedath I can see some of these based on 'there's no reason for them not to be', but Devotary provided the stalk action that got Furami under suspicion and then (presumably) killed.
Mat he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Kynedath said: Okay, but why? What is your reasoning? The first three are dead. BR and Reading are sus to everyone, Experience was someone Orlok highly suspected, and he was a village scanner. You, along with basically everyone else on that list, have been not that active the entire game. Devotary has been suspicious to me based in how he interacted with Pyro in the thread. Pyro said there are people more experienced then him at SE on the elim team. As DeTess pointed out, that could be you and BR. He also said he was the most active elim. This satisfies all of these. I didn't really want to get into this rn. Depending on how right I am it puts a target on my back. DeTess analyzed stuff without putting out a full team prediction and just got attacked. I didn't want that to happen to me, so I white-texted it since I felt obligated to put it in there anyway, since TJ asked.... Edited June 4, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice 1
Kynedath Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said: The first three are dead. BR and Reading are sus to everyone, Experience was someone Orlok highly suspected, and he was a village scanner. You, along with basically everyone else on that list, have been not that active the entire game. Devotary has been suspicious to me based in how he interacted with Pyro in the thread. Pyro said there are people more experienced then him at SE on the elim team. As DeTess pointed out, that could be you and BR. He also said he was the most active elim. This satisfies all of these. First off, a lot of those - namely BR, Reading, experience, and me (also known as everyone but Devotary) - are based off of other peoples reads and analysis. I'd love to see why YOU specifically see them as suspicious. Secondly, We can't really trust anything that Pyro said, he was a good player who very well could have been lying and manipulating us in regards to what he said. I don't think we should trust his words on the activity and experience level of players.
Mat he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Kynedath said: First off, a lot of those - namely BR, Reading, experience, and me (also known as everyone but Devotary) - are based off of other peoples reads and analysis. I'd love to see why YOU specifically see them as suspicious. That's the problem! Other people's analysis is WHY I find them suspicious! I agree with everyone else! I don't have anything that stands out! I'm inexperienced at this game! Don't kill me pls. But fine. You want my own thoughts? That last post of yours seems awfully defensive, Mr. Elim Suspect. Just sayin'.
DeTess she/her Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said: But fine. You want my own thoughts? That last post of yours seems awfully defensive, Mr. Elim Suspect. Just sayin'. I mean, not an entirely unreasonable stance to take given the circumstances That having been said, I do agree with Kynedath somewhat. It's easy to hide behind the analysis of others, and the nice thing about it is that any fallout of that analysis being wrong generally won't reach you unless the people making said analysis are evil. That's why a lack of original thought can be seen as an elim tell. I don't think you're evil because some of your interactions with Pyro seemed really genuine, but that's all the more reason to come up with your own analysis, because it adds things to the discussion. I realize that you're new and that this game has been a lot more involved than usual but still. If you want a suggestion, go look through the posts of all the people you just listed and start pointing out things that stood out to you as being alignment indicative. Be careful not to fall in the trap of only looking for stuff that incriminates them though. Also be open-minded to the possibility that there might be things that make them look more village. edit: I realize I also haven't been too helpful with analysis these past couple of days. I'll try to get some new thoughts up soonish though, but it'll probably have to wait till the second day of this cycle. Edited June 4, 2020 by DeTess
Mat he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, DeTess said: I mean, not an entirely unreasonable stance to take given the circumstances That having been said, I do agree with Kynedath somewhat. It's easy to hide behind the analysis of others, and the nice thing about it is that any fallout of that analysis being wrong generally won't reach you unless the people making said analysis are evil. That's why a lack of original thought can be seen as an elim tell. I don't think you're evil because some of your interactions with Pyro seemed really genuine, but that's all the more reason to come up with your own analysis, because it adds things to the discussion. I realize that you're new and that this game has been a lot more involved than usual but still. If you want a suggestion, go look through the posts of all the people you just listed and start pointing out things that stood out to you as being alignment indicative. Be careful not to fall in the trap of only looking for stuff that incriminates them though. Also be open-minded to the possibility that there might be things that make them look more village. Thanks for the tips. hopefully some REAL analysis will be posted in 2-3 hours, with me working around school work.... Also, does anyone know how many of the five asleep people fell asleep because of inactivity vs escorts?
Kynedath Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said: That's the problem! Other people's analysis is WHY I find them suspicious! I agree with everyone else! I don't have anything that stands out! I'm inexperienced at this game! Don't kill me pls. But fine. You want my own thoughts? That last post of yours seems awfully defensive, Mr. Elim Suspect. Just sayin'. Defensive? I'm sorry if it came off that way, I was just trying to be thorough. I was being more defensive last cycle I thought, and now that it's a new cycle I want to stop being laser focused on Pyro and start looking at other players more in depth. In my opinion a player shouldn't suspect another player JUST because someone else suspects them, but it's 100% okay and encouraged to be swayed by others arguments because they point out what makes you suspicious. For example if Orlok suspected Experience, then look at why they suspected them and use that to analyze them. And I was just ninja'd by DeTess who said that in a much better way. Thanks DeTess! EDIT: And ninja'd by Matrim as well. noice. Edited June 4, 2020 by Kynedath
|TJ| he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) Straw - Renowned Fura - Gossip Pyro - Stalker So far, none of the elims have had double roles. We can be sure that there are at least 2 Smugglers (one is Reading) (as evident from 2 Smuggled votes off Pyro) and maybe 1 Impersonator (according to wilson someone impersonated in C2. Could be elim, could be another villager). But when I suggested it last cycle, Pyro blatantly told me how wrong I was. 9 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said: That is SO off that I have no idea how you even got that as a number. Was his reaction because of how close I was, or is there something wrong in my analysis? Anyways, that makes it 6. What else? Pyro told someone he knows role-blocked Sart. He could have told that to mask the existence of an elim Escort. I don't think they have Gambling Tycoons or Bartenders. It would be too OP. Maybe a Bodyguard and an Extortionist. Maybe if there are 9 elims, an extra Gossip (Coda). Edited June 4, 2020 by TJ Shade
Shard of Reading he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: I don't think they have Gambling Tycoons or Bartenders. It would be too OP. Maybe a Bodyguard and an Extortionist. Maybe if there are 9 elims, an extra Gossip (Coda). Alive right now or in total at the beginning of the game?
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 DeTess was attacked despite the elims specifically clearing her of being Bleeder. Unless the elims decided that actually they want to make things easier for Bleeder, that kill could easily have been submitted by Bleeder, with the elim kill presumably then being blocked by an escort. Not the simplest scenario, but cutting into the cleared list isn't a good strategy even though the elims can't actually kill Bleeder. If we don't hear from whoever apparently extorted the elim kill onto Xino, seeing who got escorted could be a way to find more elims and offer them a chance to share information.
|TJ| he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said: Alive right now or in total at the beginning of the game? 9 totally at the beginning of the game. Also, I think Kynedath should be one of the final elim lynches (8th or 9th). If Pyro is to be believed (IF), elims who were more experienced than him were less active. Kynedath has definitely been active. All his Renowned searches seemed to be aimed at potential elims. Obviously we shouldn't believe everything (anything) Pyro says, and that's why Kyne is not completely elim-cleared, but I'd like to reserve lynching him for much later. Edited June 4, 2020 by TJ Shade
Kynedath Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, TJ Shade said: 9 totally at the beginning of the game. Also, I think Kynedath should be one of the final elim lynches (8th or 9th). If Pyro is to believed (IF), elims who were more experienced than him were less active. Kynedath has definitely been active. All his Renowned searches seemed to be aimed at potential elims. Obviously we shouldn't believe everything (anything) Pyro says, and that's why Kyne is not completely elim-cleared, but I'd like to reserve lynching him for much later. Also they straight up said that I wasn't an elim, although I understand that you guys probably won't believe that one as much. (even though it's true)
|TJ| he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: DeTess was attacked despite the elims specifically clearing her of being Bleeder. I mean, she was one of the few who suggested turning our focus back to elims. Maybe they thought once she's gone they could distract us by Bleeder hunting again. Pyro also vowed to have her killed if her elim-analysis turned out to be accurate. If I was Bleeder I'd definitely stop attacking randomly as it would be very easy to catch me in act with all those Stalkers around. I'd scan to search for Gambling Tycoons and then attack only when necessary (probably how Bugsy got attacked) 7 minutes ago, Kynedath said: Also they straight up said that I wasn't an elim, although I understand that you guys probably won't believe that one as much. (even though it's true) Oh yeah, Pyro told he'll scan Kynedath last cycle. Edited June 4, 2020 by TJ Shade
Mat he/him Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: I mean, she was one of the few who suggested turning our focus back to elims. Maybe they thought once she's gone they could distract us by Bleeder hunting again. Pyro also vowed to have her killed if her elim-analysis turned out to be accurate. If I was Bleeder I'd definitely stop attacking randomly as it would be very easy to catch me in act with all those Stalkers around. I'd scan to search for Gambling Tycoons and then attack only when necessary (probably how Bugsy got attacked) Oh yeah, Pyro told he'll scan Kynedath last cycle. The thing is, I can't find where Pyro said the elims cleared DeTess. Now that Pyro is lynched we have no way of confirming that, unless another elim spokesperson wants to step forward, someone that everyone is already suspicious of. Question: Why bother posting a good strategy for Bleeder to use if we are all trying to get Bleeder to lose? (Rhyme Time) Again, he's dead. So no results, and no clear. Some analysis (probably already been said/bad analysis): Experience: Orlok suspected him, Orlok was village scanner. Defended Kynedath last cycle, suggesting Experience/Kyne team. Been mostly silent throughout the game, posting either votes based on the already growing lynches or NAI material. Reading: Small posts throughout the game, seems to be indicating that they are village in their posts more often then necessary. BR: Commented on how many posts there were consistently, only a few large posts, hasn't commented in a few cycles. Joined biggest lynches there were late in the game well after their vote had any impact. Devotary: I feel this is controversial, but I can't shake the off feeling I have about one exchange with him and Pyro. Devotary made normal analysis, and Pyro said right after, "Good analysis, Devotary!" his involvement with Fura was late and could be bussing. Gut read. Kynedath: I agree with TJ, one of the last lynches. Proved Sart wasn't Bleeder. Pyro conveniently died right before Kyne was cleared. If anyone has any problems with any of those, call it out. Like I said before, I wasn't ready for this kind of analysis until Bleeder was dead.
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